公司理财投资决策

投资决策The company's goal is to get wealth maximization, which should make shareholders (i.e. capital income or dividends) to maximize the return on that investment in established risk level. It taking into account the time value of money and risk value and overcome the behavior of seeking short-term profit, easy quantification for evaluation and award. As a CFO, if I have $10million, I will divided them into three parts, are investing in stocks, bonds and the project.将一部分资金用于投资股票，以股票方式筹资能获得长期稳定的资金来源。

投资者一旦购买了股票，就等于投资入股，不能要求企业退还本金。

因此，企业发行股票筹集的资金就相当于企业的自有资金，可用于企业经营过程的始终。

对股权资本进行估价的基本模型为股利贴现模型P0= 其有三种模型：一是零增长模型P0=DIV1/r；二是稳定增长模型P0=DIV1/r-g；三为非稳定增长模型P0=DIV1/ 。

如果企业的投资回报低于公司股东通过其他投资渠道可能得到的回报，企业不应该留存收益并再投资，而应该将收益返回给股东，否则公司的股票将会下降。

在这一模型下，公司的发展划分为三个阶段，即高速增长的初始阶段，股利增长缓减的转换阶段和最终的平稳增长阶段。

显然，在这一模型下，公司的股票价值是这三个阶段股票现值的总和。

即股票的价值＝高增长阶段股利的现值之和＋转换阶段股利的现值之和＋稳定增长阶段的现值。

这几种股票估价的模型中，并无优劣之分，关键在于我们估价的公司状况与所采用的模型的假设条件相适用，其次股票价值的估价之所以产生差异还在于贴现率和增长率的预测和看法上会产生分歧，导致在相同的情况下会产生不同的估值。

但股票的风险较大，成本较高，对公司法人和股份持有人进行“双重纳税”，即股利要从税后盈余中支付。

将另一部分资金用于投资债券，从筹资成本看，在债券融资中，债务的利息计入成本，在税前支付，债券的发行费用较低。

债券价格为PV=coupon/(1+r)+coupon/投资者购买债券后一直持有到期，平均每年可预期的回报率为必要报酬率。

当必要报酬率等于票面利率时，债券价值等于其面值，债券是平价交易；当必要报酬率大于票面利率时，债券价值低于其面值，债券折价交易；当必要报酬率小于票面利率时，债券价值高于其面值，债券溢价交易。

在持有期间卖出去则要考虑债券回报率:Rate of Return=(coupon income+ price change)/investment债券回报率与利率有关，当利率上升时，债券价格下降，债券回报率小于到期收益率。

但投资债券还存在一定的风险，债券有明确的到期偿还日和利息，不论企业经营好坏，债券的利息都要如期支付本金都要到期偿还。

因此，不能将资金全部用于投资债券。

项目投资的主要财务评价准则包括净现值(NPV)、内含报酬率(IRR)、回收期和资本预算等。

一般认为，净现值法则是最重要的项目投资财务评价方法，它衡量了项目实施后对企业价值的增加值，与企业价值最大化的目标相一致.相比之下，其他准则则各有优缺点，对净现值法则只起到验证的作用。

判断净现值以外的其他评价准则是否有效的一条重要标准在于：当运用财务评价方法来判断是否接受或者拒绝某一项目时，或者对多个项目进行排序时，其他评价准则是否可以取得与净现值一致的决策结果。

如果与净现值结果一致，则该方法有意义；否则，一定存在某一种缺陷。

When NPV>0, after that, the net income of investment projects to pay the equivalent of discount rate and interest earnings, that the project's profitability is higher than the discount rate selected, from an economic point of view, the project is feasible and acceptable; when NPV=0, shows that the net income of investment projects is to pay the equivalent of a discount rate of interest, i.e. the discount of the project profitability is equal to the selected rate, is generally believed that the project is feasible, can be considered acceptable; when NPV<0, shows that the net income of investment projects is not enough to pay for a discount rate of interest, even there may be losses that the project's profitability is lower than the discount rate should be selected, refused to accept.Embedded pay rate indicates that the project itself and the actual profitability or can withstand the highest interest rate (or the cost of funds), so when the internal rate of return is greater than or equal to the enterprise is determined by the minimum expected rate of return canconsider accepting the project, otherwise it may be that the project is feasible.The investment payback period rule is considered under the conditions of the time value of money, the time needed to offset the net income of a project total investment, if the investment recovery period is less than standard investment recovery period or industry average payback period. It is considered that the project is may consider accepting the, otherwise it is not feasible. Generally, when the other conditions are the same, investment recovery period is shorter; the risk of investment projects less.但这些指标不是衡量项目的唯一准则，投资项目不可避免地存在不确定性和风险性，一些原来在确定情况下可行的项目在考虑到不确定性和风险性之后可能会变得不可行，因此要对其进行分析。

敏感性分析是用于估计各种因素发生不利变化时对项目评价结果产生影响的一种技术。

通常可以改变一种或多种选定变量的数值，如现金流量、折现率等来计算其对项目净现值(NPV)和内部收益率(IRR)的影响，各变量的变化百分率可反映出项目评价结果随变量变化的敏感程度。

如果某个关键变量具有相当大的不确定性，应重复估算NPV变为0或IRR低于项目的基准收益率发生的概率，求得项目可以接受和不被接受的概率，但采用这种结果时没有固定的判别标准，高风险的项目往往伴随着高NPV值。

因为从投资的角度讲，风险和报酬的基本关系是风险越大要求的报酬率越高，风险分析主要解决投资报酬率与投资风险的对称性问题。

The balance analysis of profit and loss is produced by investment projects in production, cost, profit relationship between the three, the breakeven point to reach normal production capacity through the calculation of project, project risk analysis to examine the ability of an uncertainty analysis method. In the profit and loss balance analysis, must consider the investment opportunity cost of time and money the value of time, can the risk and uncertainty of the project of various factorsbearing capacity for scientific judgment. The breakeven point is a turning point in the project profit and loss. At this point, the sales income is equal to the total cost of the project, just break even. The breakeven point is low and the possibility of project profitability the greater the loss caused by the less likely.作为一名CFO，应全面了解分析市场的各个因素，才能做出正确的判断和决策，为公司取得最大化利益。