2011年世界投资报告
2011世界投资报告
2011世界投资报告引言2011年是全球经济复苏的一年，投资活动在各个国家迅速恢复并呈现出积极的态势。
本文将介绍2011年全球投资市场的主要趋势和重要发展，以及对未来投资环境的展望。
1. 全球投资市场总览根据国际投资机构的数据报告，2011年全球投资规模总计达到X万亿美元，相比于2008年金融危机爆发前的水平，呈现出了快速增长的趋势。
这主要得益于全球经济复苏和投资者对未来经济前景的乐观预期。
2. 区域投资趋势分析2.1 亚洲市场亚洲市场是2011年全球投资的主要热点之一。
中国和印度等新兴市场国家吸引了大量的外国直接投资。
这些国家的经济增长迅猛，市场潜力巨大，吸引了全球投资者的目光。
同时，亚洲一体化的进程也为投资提供了更多机会。
2.2 欧洲市场欧洲市场在2011年受到了债务危机的冲击，投资活动相对较为保守。
欧洲国家采取了一系列的紧缩措施来应对危机，使得投资者对市场前景持谨慎态度。
然而，欧洲在解决危机问题上取得的进展为投资市场带来了一些积极的信号。
2.3 美洲市场美洲市场在2011年呈现出了复苏的迹象。
美国经济逐渐走出金融危机的阴影，吸引了大量的投资。
拉美国家的经济增长也为投资提供了新的机会。
美洲市场的投资活动逐渐恢复正常，为全球投资者带来了更多选择。
2.4 非洲市场非洲市场在2011年表现出了强劲的增长势头。
该地区的经济增长率超过了全球平均水平，吸引了越来越多的投资者。
非洲国家在基础设施建设和自然资源开发方面有着巨大的潜力，成为全球投资者关注的焦点。
3. 投资环境的变化3.1 政策环境全球各国的政策环境对投资市场的发展起着至关重要的作用。
2011年，许多国家出台了一系列鼓励投资的政策，包括减税、放宽市场准入等。
这些政策的出台为投资者创造了更好的投资环境。
3.2 投资方式的变化随着科技的进步和市场的发展，投资方式也发生了一些重要变化。
例如，互联网金融的出现为投资者提供了更多的选择，使得投资更加便捷和灵活。
联合国贸发会议《2003世界投资报告》概述英文版
United Nations Conference on Trade and DevelopmentWorld Investment ReportUnited NationsNew York and Geneva, 20032003FDI Policies for Development:National and International PerspectivesOverviewUNCTAD/WIR/2003 (Overview)NoteUNCTAD serves as the focal point within the United Nations Secretariat for all matters related to foreign direct investment and transnational corporations. In the past, the Programme on Transnational Corporations was carried out by the United Nations Centre on Transnational Corporations (1975-1992) and the Transnational Corporations and Management Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Development (1992-1993). In 1993, the Programme was transferred to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. UNCTAD seeks to further the understanding of the nature of transnational corporations and their contribution to development and to create an enabling environment for international investment and enterprise development. UNCTAD's work is carried out through intergovernmental deliberations, technical assistance activities, seminars, workshops and conferences.The term "country" as used in this study also refers, as appropriate, to territories or areas; the designations employed and the presentation of the material do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. In addition, the designations of country groups are intended solely for statistical or analytical convenience and do not necessarily express a judgement about the stage of development reached by a particular country or area in the development process. The reference to a company and its activities should not be construed as an endorsement by UNCTAD of the company or its activities.The boundaries and names shown and designations used on the maps presented in this publication do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations.The following symbols have been used in the tables:Two dots (..) indicate that data are not available or are not separately reported.Rows in tables have been omitted in those cases where no data are available for anyof the elements in the row;A dash (-) indicates that the item is equal to zero or its value is negligible;A blank in a table indicates that the item is not applicable, unless otherwise indicated;A slash (/) between dates representing years, e.g., 1994/95, indicates a financialyear;Use of a hyphen (-) between dates representing years, e.g., 1994-1995, signifiesthe full period involved, including the beginning and end years;Reference to "dollars" ($) means United States dollars, unless otherwise indicated;Annual rates of growth or change, unless otherwise stated, refer to annual compoundrates;Details and percentages in tables do not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.The material contained in this study may be freely quoted with appropriate acknowledgement.UNCTAD/WIR/2003 (Overview)iiAcknowledgementsThe World Investment Report 2003(WIR03) was prepared —under the overall direction of Karl P. Sauvant — by a team comprising Americo Beviglia Zampetti, Persephone Economou, Kumi Endo, Torbjörn Fredriksson, Masataka Fujita, Kálmán Kalotay, Michael Lim, Padma Mallampally, Abraham Negash, Hilary Nwokeabia, Ludger Odenthal, Miguel Pérez-Ludeña, Kee Hwee Wee, Katja Weigl and Zbigniew Zimny. Specific inputs were prepared by Rory Allan, Victoria Aranda, Douglas van den Berghe, Sirn Byung Kim, Anh-Nga Tran-Nguyen, Jörg Simon, James Xiaoning Zhan and Yong Zhang.Principal research assistance was provided by Mohamed Chiraz Baly, Bradley Boicourt, John Bolmer, Lizanne Martinez and Tadelle Taye. Eva Oskam and Jeroen Dickhof assisted as interns at various stages. The production of the WIR03 was carried out by Christopher Corbet, Lilian Mercado,Lynda Piscopo, Chantal Rakotondrainibe and Esther Valdivia-Fyfe. Graphics were done by Diego Oyarzun-Reyes. WIR03 was desktop published by Teresita Sabico. It was edited by Bruce Ross-Larson and Meta de Coquereaumont.Sanjaya Lall and Peter Muchlinski were principal consultants.The Report benefited from inputs provided by participants in a Global Seminar in Geneva in May 2003, organized in cooperation with the Development Policy Forum of InWEnt on the special topic of WIR03. Participants were Florian Alburo, Sanchita Chatterjee, Benno Ferrarini, Susan Hayter, Yao-Su Hu, Datin Kaziah Abdul Kadir, Nagesh Kumar, Mariano Laplane, Howard Mann, Richard Newfarmer, Farooq Sobhan, M. Sornarajah and Miklos Szanyi.Inputs were also received from Stanimir A. Alexandrov, Lorraine Eden, David Frans, Xing Houyuan, Mark Koulen, Julia Mikerova, Lilach Nachum, Roger Nellist, Assad Omer, Pedro Roffe, Pierre Sauvé, Frank Roger, Len Trevino and Rob van Tulder.Comments and feedback were received during various stages of preparation from Robert Anderson, Audo Araújo Faleiro, Yoko Asuyama, Vudayagiri Balasubramanyam, Maria Borga, Peter Brimble, Philip Brusick, Peter Buckley, José Durán, Richard Eglin, Roderick Floud, Rainer Geiger, Andrea Goldstein, Kathryn Gordon, CharlesiiiGore, Jim Gunderson, Jeffery Heinrich, Barry Herman, Pinfang Hong, Marie-France Houde, Anna Joubin-Bret, Joachim Karl, John Kline, Jesse Kreier, Tatjana Krylova, Sam Laird, Martha Lara, Don Lecraw, Robert Lipsey, Henry Loewendahl, Mina Mashayekhi, Raymond J. Mataloni, Anne Miroux, Hafiz Mirza, Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, Michael Mortimore, Peter Nunnenkamp, Herbert Oberhänsli, Sheila Page, Antonio Parra, Carlo Pettinato, Craig Parsons, Sol Picciotto, Gwenael Quere, Prasada Reddy, Lorraine Ruffing, Hassan Qaqaya, Maryse Roberts, Patrick Robinson, Rodrigo Sabbatini, Nicolo Gligo Saenz, A. Edward Safarian, Magdolna Sass, Christoph H. Schreuer, Prakash Sethi, Angelika Sitz, Marjan Svetlicic, Taffere Tesfachew, Peter Utting, Thomas Wälde, Jörg Weber, Louis Wells, Gerald West and Christopher Wilkie. Comments were also received from delegates participating in the WTO Working Group on the Relationship between Trade and Investment.Numerous officials of central banks, statistical offices, investment promotion and other government agencies, and officials of international organizations and non-governmental organizations, as well as executives of a number of companies, also contributed to WIR03, especially through the provision of data and other information. Most particularly, they include BusinessMap from South Africa and the participants of the OGEMID network led by Thomas Wälde, and UNCTAD’s network of experts on international investment agreements.The Report benefited from overall advice from John H. Dunning, Senior Economic Advisor.The financial support of the Governments of Germany, Norway, Sweden and the United Kingdom is gratefully acknowledged.ivContentsPage Overview (1)FDI FALLS AGAIN—UNEVENLYGlobal FDI flows fall again in 2002 amid weakeconomic performance (1)Prospects remain dim for 2003, but shouldimprove thereafter (11)Government policies are becoming more open, involvingmore incentives and focused promotion strategies (11)… as well as participation in more investmentand trade agreements (12)Converging patterns of FDI links and investmentand trade agreements are generating mega blocks (14)ENHANCING THE DEVELOPMENT DIMENSION OF INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT AGREEMENTSTo help attract FDI, countries increasinglyconclude IIAs (15)... which, by their nature, entail a loss of policy space. (18)The challenge for developing countries is to finda development-oriented balance (18)… when negotiating the objectives, structure andimplementation of IIAs (19)... and especially their content . (21)… by making development objectives an integral partof international investment agreements (22)vPageANNEXTable of contents of theWorld Investment Report 2003FDI for Development: National andInternational Perspectives (25)Selected UNCTAD publications on transnationalcorporations and foreign direct investment (29)Questionnaire (41)Figures1.The 30 economies most affected by the downturn, 2002 (3)2.World's top 30 FDI recipients, 2002 (4)3.FDI stocks among the Triad and economies inwhich FDI from the Triad dominates, 2001 (16)Tables1.Selected indicators of FDI and internationalproduction, 1982-2002 (2)2.The world's top 25 non-financial TNCs,ranked by foreign assets, 2001 (5)3.The top 25 non-financial TNCs fromdeveloping economies, ranked by foreign assets, 2001 (6)4.The top 25 non-financial TNCs from Centraland Eastern Europe, ranked by foreign assets, 2001 (7)5.Changes in national regulations on FDI, 1992-2002 (13)viWorld Investment Report 2003FDI Policies for Development: National and International PerspectivesOverviewFDI FALLS AGAIN—UNEVENLYGlobal FDI flows fall again in 2002 amid weak economic performance.Global FDI inflows declined in 2002 for the second consecutive year, falling by a fifth to $651 billion-the lowest level since 1998 (table 1). Flows declined in 108 of 195 economies (see figures 1 and 2 for the economies that experienced the biggest decline, as well as the top recipients). The main factor behind the decline was slow economic growth in most parts of the world and dim prospects for recovery, at least in the short term. Also important were falling stock market valuations, lower corporate profitability, a slowdown in the pace of corporate restructuring in some industries and the winding down of privatization in some countries. A big drop in the value of cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) figured heavily in the overall decline. The number of M&As fell from a high of 7,894 cases in 2000 to 4,493 cases in 2002—and their average value, from $145 million in 2000 to $82 million in 2002. The number of M&A deals worth more than $1 billion declined from 175 in 2000 to only 81 in 2002—again, the lowest since 1998.For the largest transnational corporations (TNCs) most indicators of the size of their foreign operations declined slightly in 2001 (the latest year for which data are available), the beginning of the FDI downturn. Despite the burst of the bubble in the information and communication technology market, there has been no significant shift in the industrial composition of FDI—nor in the ranking of the world's top 100 TNCs (see table 2 for the top 25 of these firms), the top 50 TNCs from developing countries (seeTable 1. Selected indicators of FDI and international production, 1982-2002(Billions of dollars and percentage)World Investment Report 2003FDI Policies for Development: National and International Perspectives2 Value at current prices Annual growth rateItem (Billion dollars) (Per cent)198219902002 1986-1990 1991-1995 1996-20001999200020012002FDI inflows 59 209 65123.121.140.257.329.1-40.9-21.0FDI outflows 28 242 64725.716.535.760.59.5-40.8-9.0FDI inward stock 802 1 9547 12314.79.317.219.418.97.57.8FDI outward stock 595 1 763 6 86618.010.616.818.219.8 5.58.7Cross border M&As.. 151 37025.924.051.544.149.3-48.1-37.7Sales of foreign affiliates 2 737 5 67517 68516.010.110.913.319.69.27.4Gross product of foreign affiliates 640 1 458 3 43717.3 6.77.912.816.214.7 6.7Total assets of foreign affiliates 2 091 5 89926 54318.813.919.220.727.4 4.58.3Export of foreign affiliates 722 1 197 2 61313.57.69.6 3.311.4-3.3 4.2 Employment of foreign affiliates (thousands)19 37524 26253 094 5.5 2.914.215.416.5-1.5 5.7GDP (in current prices)10 80521 67232 22710.8 5.6 1.3 3.5 2.6-0.5 3.4Gross fixed capital formation 2 286 4 819 6 42213.4 4.2 1.0 3.5 2.8-3.9 1.3Royalties and licences fees receipts 9 30 7221.314.3 6.2 5.78.2-3.1..Export of goods and non-factor services 2 053 4 3007 83815.6 5.4 3.4 3.311.4-3.3 4.2Source:UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2003. FDI Policies for Development: National and International Perspectives, table I.1, p. 3.Overview3 table 3 for the top 25 of these firms) and the top 25 TNCs from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) (table 4).The decline in FDI in 2002 was uneven across regions and countries. It was also uneven sectorally: flows into manufacturing and services declined, while those into the primary sector rose. The equity and intra-company loan components of FDI declined more than reinvested earnings. FDI entering host economies through M&As went down more than that through greenfield projects. Figure 1. The 30 economies most affected by the downturn, 2002 (Decline in absolute amounts of FDI in billions of dollars)Source:UNCTAD, FDI/TNC database./fdistatisticsWorld Investment Report 20034FDI Policies for Development: National and International PerspectivesFigure 2. World's top 30 FDI recipients, 2002(Billions of dollars)Source:UNCTAD, FDI/TNC database./fdistatisticsForeign Foreign TNI aassetsTNI aassetsTNI aCorporationHome economyIndustryForeignTotalForeignTotalForeignTotal (Per cent)113115VodafoneUnited KingdomTelecommunications 187 792 207 458 24 602 32 744 56 430 67 17883.2283273General Electric United States Electrical & electronic equipment180 031 495 210 39 914 125 913 152 000 310 00039.0315724BPUnited Kingdom Petroleum expl./ref./distr. 111 207 141 158 141 225 175 389 90 500 110 15080.5436442Vivendi Universal France Diversified91 120 123 156 29 652 51 423 256 725 381 50466.3582--Deutsche Telekom AG Germany Telecommunications 90 657 145 802 11 836 43 309 78 722 257 05840.0639330Exxonmobil Corporation United States Petroleum expl./ref./distr. 89 426 143 174 145 814 209 417 61 148 97 90064.87853885Ford Motor Company United States Motor vehicles 81 169 276 543 52 983 162 412 188 919 354 43138.4887584General MotorsUnited States Motor vehicles75 379323 96945 256 177 260 148 000 365 00029.8948646Royal Dutch/Shell Group United Kingdom/Netherlands Petroleum expl./ref./distr. 73 492 111 543 72 952 135 211 52 109 89 93959.310211962TotalFinaElf France Petroleum expl./ref./distr. 70 030 78 500 74 647 94 418 69 037 122 02574.911181523Suez France Electricity, gas and water 69 345 79 280 29 919 37 975 128 750 188 05078.21247880Toyota Motor Corporation Japan Motor vehicles 68 400 144 793 59 880 108 808 186 911 246 70259.313631047Fiat Spa Italy Motor vehicles48 749 89 264 24 860 52 002 103 565 198 76451.51452955Telefonica SA Spain Telecommunications 48 122 77 011 14 303 27 775 93 517 161 52757.315511223Volkswagen Group Germany Motor vehicles47 480 92 520 57 426 79 376 157 579 324 41357.416571393ChevronTexaco Corp.United States Petroleum expl./ref./distr. 44 943 77 572 57 673 104 409 35 569 67 56955.317381452Hutchison Whampoa Limited Hong Kong, China Diversified 40 989 55 281 6 092 11 415 53 478 77 25365.618111711News Corporation Australia Media35 650 40 007 13 880 15 087 24 700 33 80084.719442943Honda Motor Co Ltd Japan Motor vehicles35 257 52 056 40 088 55 955 59 000 120 60062.820862377 E.On Germany Electricity, gas and water 33 990 87 755 22 744 71 419 64 285 151 95337.62120184Nestlé SA SwitzerlandFood & beverages33 065 55 821 34 704 50 717 223 324 229 76575.022816186RWE Group jGermany Electricity, gas and water 32 809 81 024 23 15158 03965 609155 63440.823651157IBM United States Electrical & electronic equipment32 800 88 313 50 651 85 866 173 969 319 87650.2243243ABB Switzerland Machinery and equipment 30 586 32 305 18 876 19 382 148 486 156 86595.625353749UnileverUnited Kingdom/ NetherlandsDiversified30 52946 92228 675 46 803204 000 279 00066.5Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2003: FDI Policies for Development: National and International Perspectives , annex table A.I.1.Table 2. The world's top 50 non-financial TNCs, ranked by foreign assets, 2001 a(Millions of dollars and number of employees)Ranking in 2000:Ranking in 2001:Sales aTNI is the abbreviation for "transnationality index". The transnationlity index is calculated as the average of the following three ratios: foreign assets to total assets, foreign sales to total sales and foreign employment to total employment.Employment AssetsTable 3. The top 25 non-financial TNCs from developing economies, ranked by foreign assets, 2001(Millions of dollars and number of employees)Ranking byForeign Assets Sales Employment TNI aassets TNI a Corporation Home economy Industry Foreign Total Foreign Total Foreign Total(Per cent)World Investment Report 2003FDI Policies for Development: National and International Perspectives6 112Hutchison Whampoa Limited Hong Kong, China Diversified40 98955 281 6 09211 41553 47877 25365.6 211Singtel Ltd.Singapore Telecommunications15 59419 108 1 362 4 05417 57421 53565.6 39Cemex S.A.Mexico Non-metalic mineral products12 64516 282 4 390 6 73017 44925 51970.4 422LG Electronics Inc.Korea, Republic of Electrical & electronic equipment11 56120 30410 00922 52821 01742 51250.3 541Petróleos De Venezuela Venezuela Petroleum expl./ref./distr.7 96457 54219 80146 250 5 48046 42522.8 642Petronas - Petroliam NasionalBerhad Malaysia Petroleum expl./ref./distr.7 87737 933 5 35917 681 4 00625 72422.2 745New World Development Co., Ltd.Hong Kong, China Diversified 4 71516 253565 2 93380026 10017.1 84Neptune Orient Lines Ltd.Singapore Transport and storage 4 674 4 951 2 970 4 73710 41211 77781.8 916Citic Pacific Ltd.Hong Kong, China Diversified 4 1847 798 1 109 2 2127 35411 73355.51014Jardine Matheson Holdings Ltd Hong Kong, China Diversified 4 0807 166 6 2979 41362 629110 00060.31128Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.Korea, Republic of Electrical & electronic equipment 3 84041 69225 11237 15523 95373 68236.4122Guangdong Investment Ltd.Hong Kong, China Diversified 3 694 4 042854932 6 8697 64191.0135Shangri-La Asia Ltd.Hong Kong, China Hotels and motels 3 606 4 56545856013 03316 50079.91410Sappi Ltd.South Africa Paper 3 463 4 504 3 223 4 18410 42918 23170.41546Hyundai Motor Company Korea, Republic of Motor vehicles 3 21033 216 6 94333 199551691 95812.2168Flextronics International Ltd.Singapore Electrical & electronic equipment 2 983 4 115 5 363 6 6915073470 00075.01713City Developments Ltd.Singapore Hotels 2 870 6 454857 1 30211 45714 33763.41844Samsung Corporation Korea, Republic of Electrical & electronic equipment 2 8009 400 5 80032 300.. 4 16417.41926China National Chemicals,Imp. & Exp. Corp.China Diversified 2 788 4 9289 14516 1653507 95039.22018South African Breweries Plc South Africa Food & beverages 2 785 4 399 2 433 4 36415 45033 23055.22134América Móvil Mexico Telecommunications 2 32310 137919 4 3857 14214 78630.72231Perez Companc Argentina Petroleum expl./ref./distr. 2 154 6 244471 1 655 1 182 3 42732.5233Guangzhou InvestmentCompany Ltd.Hong Kong, China Paper 2 129 2 55936243312 92013 12088.42449Taiwan Semiconductor Taiwan ProvinceManufacturing Co Ltd.of China Electrical & electronic equipment 2 03310 446... 3 751..13 6697.0251First Pacific Company Limited Hong Kong, China Electrical & electronic equipment 2 007 2 046 1 852 1 85247 99848 04699.3 Source:UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2003. FDI Policies for Development: National and International Perspectives, annex table A.I.2.a TNI is the abbreviation for "transnationality index". The transnationlity index is calculated as the average of the following three ratios: foreign assets to totalassets, foreign sales to total sales and foreign employment to total employment.Overview7Table 4. The top 25 non-financial TNCs from Central and Eastern Europe, ranked by foreign assets, 2001(Millions of dollars and number of employees)Ranking by ForeignAssets Sales EmploymentTNI a assets TNI a Corporation Home country Industry Foreign Total Foreign Total Foreign Total (Per cent)110Lukoil Oil Co.Russian Federation Petroleum and natural gas 5 830.015 859.08 771.014 892.013 000140 00035.024Novoship Co.Russian Federation Transport 998.9 1 133.6 302.3392.1 85 6 97655.531Latvian Shipping tvia Transport .. 491.2.. 172.9 1 313 1 76277.745Pliva GroupCroatia Pharmaceuticals 281.1 967.6 477.3 632.2 2 9007 20848.3525Hrvatska Elektroprivreda d.d.Croatia Energy 272.0 2 357.0 8.0 775.0-15 071 4.262Primorsk Shipping Co.Russian Federation Transport 267.3 437.9 114.9 145.7 1 305 2 62963.277Gorenje Group Slovenia Domestic appliances 231.5 486.1 475.4 661.3 6708 18642.686Krka d.d.Slovenia Pharmaceuticals 190.8 476.6 235.4 296.0 595 3 52045.5915Far Eastern Shipping Co.Russian Federation Transport 123.0 377.0 101.0 318.0 233 5 60822.81021Mercator d.d.Slovenia Retail trade 112.7 868.5 53.0 1 171.5 1 27913 6928.91120MOL Hungarian Oil and Gas Plc.Hungary Petroleum and natural gas 95.9 3 243.2 819.2 3 850.0 77615 2189.81214Podravka GroupCroatia Food and beverages/pharmaceuticals 69.3357.2 134.3 303.5 790 6 88525.01322Petrol Group Slovenia Petroleum and natural gas 66.9 478.4 80.0 1 122.8 24 1 5727.5143Zalakerámia Rt.Hungary Clay product and refractory 65.0 120.0 39.0 64.0 1 889 2 92159.91519Richter Gedeon Ltd.Hungary Pharmaceuticals 55.9 496.5 43.5 309.6 884 5 00714.31611Malév Hungarian Airlines Ltd.b Hungary Transport 41.4 187.0 299.0 383.4 49 2 95233.91717Intereuropa d.d.Slovenia Trade 34.0 200.0 25.0 163.0 662 2 23020.71812Lek d.d.Slovenia Pharmaceuticals 28.1 332.4 219.7 281.2 252 2 66332.01924Petrom SA National Oil Co.b Romania Petroleum and natural gas 28.0 3 151.0 303.0 2 423.0 14977 630 4.52013Croatia Airlines d.d.Croatia Transportation 26.3 328.4 90.4 141.8 63 97726.12123Merkur d.d.Slovenia Trade 26.1 397.9 44.8 436.7 89 2 824 6.7229Budimex Capital Group Poland Construction 23.8 372.6 50.4 610.0 1 076 1 18935.0238BLRT Grupp AS Estonia Shipbuilding 22.6 83.7 31.5 83.8 1 521 3 41536.42416Iskraemeco d.d.Slovenia Electrical machinery 19.0 86.5 32.8 115.0 267 2 11421.02518Tiszai Vegyi Kombinát Ltd.Hungary Chemicals 16.6462.5245.6489.9182 2 98719.9Averages373.21 350.1 525.2 1 209.4 1 25213 409 30.3Change from 2000 (in per cent) 15.29.78.81.6- 10.6- 5.3- 1.9Source:UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2003. FDI Policies for Development: National and International Perspectives , annex table A.I.3.a The transnationality index (TNI) is calculated as the average of the following three ratios: foreign assets to total assets, foreign sales to total sales and foreign employment to total employment.b2000 data.World Investment Report 20038FDI Policies for Development: National and International PerspectivesGeographically, flows to developed and developing countries each fell by 22% (to $460 billion and $162 billion, respectively). Two countries, the United States and the United Kingdom, accounted for half of the decline in the countries with reduced inflows. Among developing regions, Latin America and the Caribbean was hit hard, suffering its third consecutive annual decline in FDI with a fall in inflows of 33% in 2002. Africa registered a decline of 41%; but after adjusting for the exceptional FDI inflows in 2001, there was no decline. FDI in Asia and the Pacific declined the least in the developing world because of China, which with a record inflow of $53 billion became the world's biggest host country. CEE did the best of all regions, increasing its FDI inflows to a record $29 billion.The main developments by region were:•There was a sizable decline in FDI inflows to developed countries, accompanying a continuing slowdown in corporate investment, declining stock prices and a slowdown in the consolidation of activities in some industries—all influenced by weak economic conditions. In several countries, repayments of intra-company loans contributed to lower FDI flows. For instance, a large part of the decline in the United States was due to repayments of loans by foreign affiliates to parent companies, presumably to take advantage of the lower interest rates in the United States as well as for other reasons (such as improving the debt-to-equity ratio of parent firms). The most notable feature of the decline in FDI in the developed countries was the plunge in cross-border M&As, especially in the United States and the United Kingdom. In all, FDI inflows declined in 16 of the 26 developed countries. Australia, Germany, Finland and Japan were among the countries with higher FDI inflows in 2002.FDI outflows from the developed countries also declined in 2002 to $600 billion; the fall was concentrated in France, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. Outflows from Austria, Finland, Greece, Norway, Sweden and the United States increased.In both outflows and inflows Luxembourg headed the list of largest host and home countries (for special reasons). The prospects for 2003 depend on the strength of the economic recovery, investor confidence and a resumption of cross-border M&As. With many TNCs continuing to follow cautious growth and consolidation strategies, M&As are not yet showing much dynamism. As a group,Overview9 developed countries are not likely to improve their FDI performance in 2003.•Africa suffered a dramatic decline in FDI inflows—from $19 billion in 2001 to $11 billion in 2002, largely the result of exceptionally high inflows in 2001 (two M&As in South Africa and Morocco, not repeated in 2002). Flows to 23 of the continent's 53 countries declined. FDI in the oil industry remained dominant.Angola, Algeria, Chad, Nigeria and Tunisia accounted for more than half the 2002 inflows. Only South African enterprises made significant investments abroad. Oil exploration by major TNCs in several oil-rich countries make the 2003 outlook for FDI inflows more promising.•The Asia-Pacific region was not spared, either, from the global decline in FDI inflows in 2002. FDI inflows to the region declined for the second consecutive year—from $107 billion in 2001 to $95 billion, uneven by subregion, country and industry. All subregions, except Central Asia and South Asia, received lower FDI flows than in 2001. Flows to 31 of the region’s 57 economies declined.However, several countries received significantly higher flows.Intra-regional investment flows, particularly in South-East Asia and North-East Asia, remained strong, partly as a result of the relocation of production activities, expanding regional production networks and continued regional integration efforts. FDI in the electronics industry continued to decline due to the rationalization of production activities in the region and adjustments to weak global demand. While long-term prospects for an increase in FDI flows to the region remain promising, the short-term outlook is uncertain.•In Latin America and the Caribbean, FDI flows declined for the third consecutive year, from $84 billion in 2001 to $56 billion, affecting all subregions and 28 of the region’s 40 economies.Factors specific to the region contributed to this decline, especially the acute economic crisis in Argentina and economic and political uncertainty in some other countries. The services sector was affected most by the decline. Manufacturing FDI proved to be quite resilient, with barely any change, despite the slowdown from the region's major export destination, the United States, and the growing relocation of labour-intensive activities to Asia. FDI is expected to remain at the same level in 2003 and to start rising thereafter.。
国际收支平衡表分析报告
国际收支平衡分析报告——基于2000-2011年数据分析国贸09-2 男生275寝室组成员：牛通通朱济强赵若鹏曹存猛霍文豪朱龙飞2000年以来，我国的进出口总额一年一个台阶，其中货物项目差额始终为顺差，而且均值达到了1483亿美元。
如图表所示，货物项目差额一般比经常项目差额小，但是在2003年以前，情况则相反，而2003年之后，经常项目差额逐渐超过货物项目差额并且差距在逐渐扩大，这说明服务项目在经常项目中的比重有所下降。
由此可知，货物项目的差额始终是经常项目最重要的组成部分，所以经常项目的差额状况一般与货物项目相一致。
服务项目是指一个国家对外提供服务或接受服务所发的收支，包括运输、旅游、通讯、建筑、保险、金融服务、计算机和信息服务、专有权使用费和特许费、各种商业服务、个人文化娱乐以及政府服务的收支状况。
从上面的图表中可以看出，我国的服务项目一直处于逆差状态，年均达到了103.9亿美元。
这说明我国的服务项目近年来，基本上是进口大于出口。
如图表所示，服务项目对经常想和睦差额起到的是反向冲减的作用，部分货物贸易顺差被服务贸易的逆差所抵消。
但是服务项目的差额与货物项目的差额相比较小，因此服务项目差额不会改变经常项目差额的方向。
有图表可知，历年来服务项目的差额呈现出递增的趋势，2008年突破100亿美元的大关，2009年更是达到了294亿美元的高峰，这说明我国目前的服务贸易的竞争力依然不强，与发达国家相比，还表现出相对下降的势头。
经常账户大贷方，从2000年到2008年总体保持稳定，08-09年下降，10年有回升，借方与贷方大体相同，虽然08-09年受金融危机的影响，出口减少，但是由于进口也相对减少，所以总体并为导致经常账户的逆差，使得从2000年以来，保持顺差。
二资本金融账户分析（负责人：朱龙飞曹存猛）证券投资净流入有升有降。
2006年处于低谷，2008年证券投资净流入最高，之后呈下降趋势。
我国对外证券投资下降。
2011年股票行业投资分析报告
传统业务将进入稳定增长期
目前证券行业高度依赖经纪业务和自营业务的盈利模式导致证券行业业绩与股票市场高度相关。在09年 前10个月日均股票交易额创出2099亿元的历史新高之后，经纪业务再现06年、07年爆发式增长的概率已经极 低；同时随着中国证监会对现有服务部在2010年10月升级完毕时限的临近和对营业网点审批的逐步放松，经 纪业务净手续费率逐年下滑已成权益类投资的配置比例逐步降低的前提下，自营业务投资收益率将难以明显 提升，而直接投资业务受制于净资本和锁定期限制，短期难以贡献明显收益。在不考虑股指期货、融资融券 等创新业务的前提下，我们预测09年证券行业的营业收入和净利润将大幅增长50%以上，同时净资产收益率 将提升至17.4%；10年营业收入和净利润将微幅增长，净资产收益率将小幅下滑至15.5%。未来几年，经纪业 务和自营业务难有大幅增长，证券行业营业收入和净必然。在股票市场2010年继续大幅上涨50%以上概率较 低、持续经营和再融资将导致利润在目前盈利模式下的复合增长率将仅为5%左右，净资产收益率也将逐年小 幅下滑。
4-YR CAGR 11.30%
18.00% 26.80%
55
6.50% 12.40% 12.40%
23.1% 20.2%
4.8% 1.9% 5.3% 21.6% 14.3% 10.0% 4.5% 12.1% -0.3% -6.8%
46.6% 34.3% 7.2% 2.7% 9.3%
57.8% 30.8% 3.6% 3.3% 4.5%
目前盈利模式下10年证券行业业绩难以大幅增长
在09年前10个月日均股票交易额同比大幅增长88%、上证指数由去年同期累计下跌了67%变为大幅上涨了6 5%的前提下，不考虑创新业务对业绩带来的影响，我们预测证券行业09年的营业收入和净利润将大幅增长51 %和49%至2064亿元和723亿元，净资产收益率也将从08年的13.6%提升至17.4%。但10年营业收入和净利润仅 小幅2%和1%至2095亿元和731亿元，净资产收益率也将小幅下滑至15.5%，日均股票交易额的滞涨和股票市场 涨幅的下降是最主要原因。
股东大会巴菲特发言全文
2011年股东大会巴菲特发言全文美国东部时间4月30日上午9：30分，北京时间4月30日晚间22：30分，股神沃伦-巴菲特(专栏)麾下的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司召开年度股东大会，巴菲特及芒格与股东5小时的问答，是无数价值投资者的一大盛宴。
以下为巴菲特2011年股东大会大会实录：[关于索科尔]伯克希尔哈撒韦公司掌门人巴菲特在接受福克斯商业频道采访时表示，他不会对本周末举行的伯克希尔哈撒韦年会上的提问范围设限。
同时，在被问及是否会限制股东对有关前高管大卫-索科尔(David Sokol)涉嫌内幕交易进行提问时，巴菲特称不会对这类问题设限。
[关于内幕交易案]巴菲特此前对CNBC表示，将会在股东大会上就大卫-索科尔内幕交易丑闻发表公开评论，股东大会后接受CNBC针对内幕交易案的采访。
[大会现场]巴菲特开始上台讲话了！巴菲特介绍了董事会的情况，一个有趣的事实是，伯克希尔哈撒韦12位董事中已有6位年龄达到79岁。
巴菲特称，除了与住宅类房地产有关的行业，其他各行业情况都正在改善。
[关于保险业]巴菲特表示，但对灾难险行业来说，今年第一季度是史上第二差的，日本、澳大利亚和新西兰发生的灾难可能使各再保险公司支出500亿美元。
其中伯克希尔占3%-5%，其保险业务九年内第一次亏损。
[关于伯克希尔业绩]伯克希尔在亚太地区股市的投资亏损了约17亿美元。
其中，仅日本市场的投资就损失了10亿美元。
伯克希尔的保险业务第一季度利润同比下降了10亿美元，主要是因为灾难造成的保险费支出增加，不过全年情况取决于飓风季的情况，第三季度通常是灾难最为频发的季度。
此外，铁路、公用事业(2241.834,51.90,2.37%)和能源类业务的利润同比将近翻番，得益于北伯林顿铁路公司(BNSF)的贡献。
随着经济形势逐步复苏，制造业、服务和零售业务的业绩也不断改善。
最近的龙卷风预计将给伯克希尔旗下的GEICO保险公司带来2.5万辆汽车赔付。
不过GEICO公司第一季度增长强劲，尤其是三月份，一季度保费收入同比增长约50%。
经济全球化和世界多极化 ppt课件
①冷战结束后，除了美国这个唯一的超级大国外，俄罗斯 、日本、中国、欧洲联盟等都在国际上发挥着各自不同 的作用。
②广大发展中国家总体实力增强，地位上升，成为国际舞 台上不可忽视的重要力量。
经济全球化和世界多极化
美国：拥有世界上最强大的综合国力，军事、 经济、科技等方面居世界领先地位
经济全球化和世界多极化
美国
苏联
形成了以美苏对峙为标志的两极格局 冷战结束后世界经格济全球局化和又世界多发极化生了什么变化？
指综合国力强、国际事务影响大的国家或国家集团。
经济全球化和世界多极化
世界格局的多极化趋势
1.出现： 20世纪60年代末70年代初，在美苏争霸的两极格局依
然存在的情况下，世界出现了多极化的发展趋势。
位有何区别？
经济全球化和世界多极化
资料1：中国加入世界贸易组织10年的成绩单：我国货物 贸易进出口规模从2001年的5 098亿美元增长到2010年的近3 万亿美元，增长4.8倍，其中出口规模增长4.9倍，进口规模 增长4.7倍。中国已成为世界第一大出口国和第二大进口国。 10年来，中国每年平均进口7 500亿美元的商品，相当于为贸 易伙伴创造1 400多万个就业岗位。中国在“走出去”过程中 切实履行社会责任。截至2010年，中国对外投资企业聘用当 地员工近80万人，每年在当地纳税100亿美元。
○ 有人作了这样一个形象的比喻：“在经济全球化过程中， 蛋糕做大了，但是大蛋糕分给了富人，其他的人只得到面包 屑。”对此，你是如何理解的？
经济全球化和世界多极化
二、世界贸易组织
1.世贸组织的成立
位于瑞士的世界贸易组织总部
1995年1月1日，由关 贸总协定发展而来的世界 贸易组织（英文简称 “WTO”）成立。它是 一个独立于联合国的永久 性国际组织，负责管理世 界经济和贸易秩序，被称 为“经济联合国”。
全球化、金融危机与社会主义自主发展
2012年第8期山东社会科学No．8总第204期SHANDONG SOCIAL SCIENCES General No．204全球化、金融危机与社会主义自主发展李龙强罗文东（西南科技大学政治学院，四川绵阳621010；中国社会科学院马研院，北京100732）［摘要］金融危机是全球化条件下资本主义矛盾的集中爆发。
这场金融危机虽然首先发生在美国和欧洲，但也影响到包括中国在内的社会主义国家。
另一方面，这场金融危机进一步暴露了包括新自由主义、消费主义在内的西方发展模式的严重弊病和危害，显示出中国特色社会主义的巨大优越性和生命力。
西方发达国家占主导地位的全球化，在为我国广泛吸收、借鉴资本主义国家文明成果提供了广阔舞台的同时，也把资本主义的各种矛盾和弊病扩散到全球，从而给我国社会主义现代化建设形成了巨大冲击。
社会主义自主发展不仅要推翻不合理的社会制度和统治集团的奴役，而且要摆脱不公正的国际关系和垄断资本的盘剥，在坚持独立自主，主要依靠自身力量实现国家稳定发展的同时，又坚持对外开放，积极参与全球化，平等地和世界各国开展互利合作。
［关键词］全球化；金融危机；社会主义自主发展［中图分类号］D18［文献标识码］A［文章编号］1003－4145［2012］08－0011－05从2007年美国爆发次贷危机，到2008年引起全球性“金融海啸”和2010年以来欧洲主权债务危机，资本主义正在经历一场百年一遇的经济和社会危机。
随着全球化的不断拓展和推进以及资本主义矛盾的积累和深化，这场自1929年西方经济危机和30年代大萧条之后的最严重、最深刻的危机，正在并将继续改变当代资本主义的发展进程，对世界社会主义产生巨大的影响。
列宁曾经指出：“马克思的全部理论，就是运用最彻底、最完整、最周密、内容最丰富的发展论去考察现代资本主义。
自然，他也就要运用这个理论去考察资本主义的即将到来的崩溃和未来共产主义的未来的发展。
”①只有对全球化和金融危机的实质和影响进行科学分析，才能坚定不移地走中国特色社会主义道路，正确制定和实施社会主义现代化的发展战略，牢固树立共产主义最终胜利的理想和信念。
历年《世界投资报告》的主题
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来自发展中经济体和转型经济体的外国直接投资：对发展的影响
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资料来源：联合国贸发组织
2011年世界投资报告
一、2010年全球直接投资复苏势头增强
2010年全球外国直接投资小幅回升5%，达到1.24万亿美元；但仍比危机前的均值低15%左右，比2007年时的最高值减少近37%。
（一）新兴经济体成为直接投资的新力量。
2010年，发展中和转型期经济体吸收的直接投资额首次达到全球的一半以上；前20大直接投资流入国中半数为发展中和转型期经济体。
同时，发展中和转型期经济体的直接投资流出量出现强势增长，2010年增长21%，占全球的29%；前20大直接投资经济体中有6个是发展中和转型期经济体。
（二）发达国家直接投资流入量仍远低于危机前水平。
2010年，发达国家直接投资流入量略微下滑。
欧洲跌幅巨大；日本出现下跌。
阻碍直接投资流入回升的因素包括愈发黯淡的经济前景、紧缩措施和可能出现的债务危机及监管方面的顾虑。
然而，美国的流入量强势逆转，增长40%以上。
发达国家对外直接投资扭转下滑趋势，较2009年增长10%；然而仅达到2007年最高值的一半。
出现逆转的主因是并购价值有所增加。
（三）服务业直接投资放缓，跨界并购出现反弹。
在危机中首当其冲、直接投资流量减少最多的服务业，其2010年直接投资流量继续下滑。
金融业直接投资流量跌幅最大。
从投资方式看，2010年跨境并购交易值上升36%，但只有2007年最高值的三分之一左右。
进入发展中经济体的跨境并购值翻番。
（四）发展中国家直接投资流入量不均衡。
非洲、最不发达国家、内陆发展中国家和小岛屿发展中国家的直接投资流入持续下降。
2010 年，非洲直接投资流入量下降了9%，在全球直接投资流入总量中的份额由2009 年的5.1%降至2010 年的4.4%；最贫困区域的直接投资流入量持续下滑，48个最不发达国家的流入量又全面下滑0.6%。
与此同时，东亚、东南亚和拉丁美洲等主要新兴区域的直接投资流入量出现强势增长。
东亚、东南亚和南亚的流入量总体上升24%；拉丁美洲和加勒比区域上升13%，其中南美涨幅最大，达到56%，巴西尤为突出。
亚洲三个次区域的变化趋势大相径庭：东盟的流入量翻了一番以上；东亚的流入量增长17%；南亚直接投资流入量减少25%。
其中中国流入量上升11%，达到1060亿美元。
二、2011年直接投资发展趋势
2011年直接投资将持续回升，达到1.4-1.6万亿美元或危机前的水平。
2012年将进一步增长至1.7万亿美元，并于2013年达到2007年时的最高值（1.9万亿美元）。
跨国公司前所未有的现金存量、正在进行的企业和产业重组、股市估值不断提高，政府逐渐撤出金融和非金融公司的控股，危机期间逐步建立的这些扶持措施为全球企业创造了新的投资机会。
然而，危机后的商业环境仍然具有许多不确定性。
全球经济治理的不可预测性、可能蔓延的主权债务危机，一些发达国家财政和金融部门的失衡，以及通货膨胀上升和主要新兴市场经济体出现过热的迹象等危险因素，都有可能影响直接投资的恢复。
图1：2002-2010年全球直接投资流量和2011-2013 年预测(10亿美元)
三、直接投资政策发展趋势
（一）国家政策：喜忧参半
2010年已报告的投资政策措施有三分之二以上属于直接投资自由化和促进领域，特别是在亚洲。
2010年的新措施中有近三分之一属于与投资相关的监管和限制措施，保持了2003年以来的上升趋势。
最近的限制措施主要集中于几个产业，特别是以自然资源为基础的产业和金融服务业。
（二）国际投资制度：过多与过少
2010年共有178项新的国际投资协议――每周都有三个以上的新条约――年末国际投资协议的总数达到了6092项。
预计2011年，条约不断增多的趋势仍会继续，前5个月共产生48项新的国际投资协议，还有100余项国际投资协议正在谈判中。
当今国际投资协议制度已逐渐接近这样的局面：其庞大和复杂程度令政府和投资者都难以应对。
然而它仅仅为全球三分之二的直接投资存量提供保护，只涵盖五分之一可能出现的双边投资关系。
全面涵盖所有的投资关系，需要再缔结14100项双边条约。
（三）直接投资政策和产业政策之间的相互作用不断增强
在国家层面，这种作用体现为具体的国家投资准则；出于产业发展的目的锁定投资类型或特定类别的外国投资者；与某些产业、活动或区域相关的投资刺激措施；根据产业发展战略推动投资便利化；各国还出于在危机时刻保护幼稚工业、国家龙头企业、战略性企业或境况不佳的国内产业等产业政策方面的目的，运用选择性的直接投资限制措施。
在国际层面，通过国际投资协议，直接投资促进工作支持产业政策，特别是当有关国际投资协议具有针对具体部门的内容时。
与此同时，国际投资协议条款也可以限制产业政策的监管空间。
与初级部门和制造业部门相比，国家更倾向于为服务业保留政策空间。
服务业中大部分保留条款存在于运输、金融和通信行业。
（四）企业社会责任标准对投资政策的影响越来越大
过去数年来，企业社会责任标准已经成为一种独特的“软法律”。
这些标准通常聚焦于跨国公司的运作。
可以通过以下政策选择促进企业社会责任标准：支持制定新的企业社会责任标准；在政府采购中运用企业社会责任标准；建设发展中国家采用企业社会责任标准的能力；促进对企业社会责任报告和负责任投资的吸收理解；在监管举措中采用企业社会责任标准；加强现有国际标准的遵约促进机制；将企业社会责任标准纳入国际投资协议。