PPT紫色模板

Price for import (after inflation adjusted)
1 1.071271124 1.109396685 1.013960323 1.011102947 1.043677035 1.125071434 0.848967263 1.114295044 1.116580945
P
faces immiserizing growth.
S2
P”
cloth
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Is China undergoing such a process?
We are going to use the manufacture of textile wearing apparel , footwear, and caps as an example to show the answer to the question above should be “yes”.
textile wearing apparel, footwear and caps. We can see from the chart that approximately
20-30 percent of industrial sections in China show the possibility of immiserizing growth and the number of this industrial sections increased slightly in the past years.
TCI
1 0.683391214 0.539181525 0.540458341 0.481479918 0.351208808 0.282793797 0.321530978 0.244018826 0.282609572
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We will compare the variation tendency of TCI and TFP of 39 industrial sections from 2004 to 2011.
Value of Export Products
Derive from
Profit Value Determined by
Technology Improvement
?
Relation
Term of Trade
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Technology Improvement
How to calculate Total Factor Productivity?
In this research, we intend to use the Term of trade (measured by TCI)as the basis of judgment whether a industrial section is facing Immiserizing Growth, because how much we can earn from export is finally determined by the term of trade.
Extension to All Industries
We then apply the same method to other industries and figure out the TFPs and the TCIs
from 2004 to 2011. Then we use SPSS to test the correlation between them. The darker parts represent the number of those which show similar characteristics with the manufacture of
As is shown in the graph above, while the TFP keeps a positive number during the past several years, which represents the contributions that technology improvements have made to the increase of output, the Trade Condition Index does have declined. That is to say, the manufacture of textile
Price for export
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
1 0.753446655 0.657876909 0.62630577 0.574529907 0.479911542 0.449800584 0.383002105 0.400368482 0.482340582
wearing apparel, footwear and caps have been undergoing an immiserizing growth.
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0.6
0.15
0.4
0.1 0.05
0 2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0.2 0 2011
TFP
0.31 0.39 0.36 0.41 0.39 0.42 0.37 0.32
TCI 1 0.683391 0.539182 0.540458 0.48148 0.351209 0.282794 0.321531 0.244019 0.28261
45
40
35
30
25
32
30
28
30
23
27
28
26
1.2
Term of Trade from 2002 to 2011 (TCI)
1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2
0
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Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul-02 Oct-02 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03 Jan-04 Apr-04 Jul-04 Oct-04 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11
Model Regression Solow residual
0.5
0.4
0.31
0.3
0.2
0.1
0 2004
Bar Chart: The variation of TFP from 2004 to 2011
0.39
0.36
0.42
0.39
0.42
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
0.37 2010
0.32 2011
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Terms of Trade
Table of TCI from 2002 to 2011 (use the year 2002 as base period)
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An interesting finding about export expansion
The export value and profit rate of textile and clothes industrial from 2002 to 2011
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Comparison and Conclusion
0.45 0.4 0.35
0.31
0.39
0.36
0.41
0.39
0.42
0.37
1.2 0.32 1
0.3
0.8
0.25 0.2
C1 U1
output per person. That is to say, the more we
C2
U2
produce and export, the less we will earn and P
the worse social welfare will be. This is often ”
Price for export (after inflation adjusted)
1 0.734434233 0.59971997 0.550166873 0.487157275 0.367430141 0.316979604 0.271259409 0.271797693 0.316371283