《SCM》案例啤酒游戏(BeerGame)：百事可乐游戏
组织行为学啤酒游戏案例
组织行为学啤酒游戏案例
Beer game是由麻省理工学院斯隆商学院的Jay Forrester 教授在上世纪60年代提出，用来演示供应链模型的仿真游戏，是生产和配送渠道中物流和信息流的练习。
分为零售商、批发商、分销商和制造商四种参与者，分别担任不同的职责。
既定策略如下：
1.根据前3期客户订单的平均数制定库存及订货计划。
2.库存及在途订单数量的和尽量不超过前2期客户订单平均数的1倍。
3.将库存压力转嫁给上游批发商。
4.为避免上游压缩订单导致供货不足，发生滞发时通过增加订货量给上游供应商发出增加需求的信号。
通过对组织行为学案例的简单了解，明确企业的经营发展目标。
对人才培养的重视，在企业内部打造出完善的任务学习机制，为员工的个人成长和学习提供更多上升的空间。
第三，企业通过任务型管理机制的打造来不断强化员工的竞争服务意识，实现对企业内部资源的整合利用，从而提升企业发展绩效。
啤酒游戏案例分析
《运作管理》案例报告啤酒游戏案例分析2016年3月28日一、游戏背景啤酒游戏是模拟一条生产、销售消费的供应链运作的实验，就是一个简单的链式生产分销系统。
具体说明如下：1.这个系统流动单一产品：啤酒。
2.顾客和原材料作为系统外部因素，不受限制。
原料供应充足，能够满足生产商的所有订单需求；顾客的需求是固定的（由老师扮演，但是具体需求事先不知情）。
3.系统运作正常，如产能、物流等都运作正常。
4.游戏的重点是系统中的四个层级，分别是：生产商、分销商、批发商、零售商，是直线递阶的关系，且每一个层级都有固定的职能，即只能根据下游订单来决定自己产量（或者库存），各个环节间彼此间不共享信息，相互独立决策。
5.系统运转过程：以一个周为一个周期，在每个周初会收到来自下游的订单，根据上周期末的库存进行发货；发货完毕后收到上游发来的货物，随后盘点库存并做出订货决策。
若库存不足，存在缺货，在下一周需要先满足去缺货需求，再满足新的订单需求。
6.系统中存在时滞。
每个层级发出采购订单之后，两周之后才能收到其上游发的货。
7.每个层级都有一个共同的最终目标就是总成本最小化。
在系统中，各个层级只涉及到两个成本：库存成本和缺货成本，库存成本是0.5元/件，缺货成本是1元/件。
游戏中有12个组，每各组担任一个层级的角色，四个组形成一条供应链。
全过程中三条供应链共完成了15个周期的交易。
二、分析过程1.在这个游戏中，我们组是担任批发商的角色，接受来自零售商的订单并满足其需求，同时对分销商下订单满足自身的库存需要。
在整个模拟游戏的过程中，作为批发商，我们根据下游的需求订单来确定自己的库存需求。
在一定程度上，我们可以利用订单数量影响上游分销商的库存，我们对其产能（或者库存）有一定的支配作用，但是我们的决策需要考虑到成本的大小，所以决策在很大程度上是受到下游零售商需求的支配，按需订货。
因此作为批发商，我们的决策只是在很大程度上是被下游零售商的影响的，并不是支配。
Beer Game 啤酒游戏
Beer Game 啤酒游戏Time in Lab: 2 hoursObjective: 1) to understand the bullwhip effect in the supply chain; 2) to understand the way to deal with Bullwhip effect, in order to achieve supply chain coordination.1.IntroductionThe Beer Game is a role-playing simulation developed at MIT in the 1960's to clarify the advantages of taking an integrated approach to supply chain management. We have developed this computerized version of the Beer Game to make it easier to play the Beer Game,as well as to illustrate certain Supply Chain Management issues which cannot be demonstrated by the traditional (non-computerized) Beer Game. This game is distributed with the textbook "Designing and Managing the Supply Chain" by D. Simchi-Levi, P. Kaminsky, and E. Simchi-Levi.2.The ScenarioThe Beer Game is a simulation, in which you, the player, are faced with the following scenario:In this exercise, you will be faced with the following scenario: Consider a simplified beer supply chain, consisting of a single retailer, a single wholesaler which supplies the retailer, a single distributor which supplies the wholesaler, and a single factory with unlimited raw materials which makes (brews) the beer and supplies the distributor. Each component in the supply chain has unlimited storage capacity, and there is a fixed supply lead time and order delay time between each component.Each week, each component in the supply chain tries to meet the demand of the downstream component. Any orders which cannot be met are recorded as backorders, and met as soon as possible. No orders will be ignored, and all orders must eventually be met. At each period, each component in the supply chain is charged a $1.00 shortage cost per backordered item. Also, at each period, each component owns the inventory at that facility. In addition, the wholesaler owns inventory in transit to the retailer, and the distributor owns inventory in transit to the wholesaler, and the factory owns both items being manufactured and items in transit to the distributor. Each location .is charged $.50 inventory holding cost per inventory item that it owns. Also, each supply chain member orders some amount from its upstream supplier. It takes one week for thisorder to arrive at the supplier. Once the order arrives, the supplier attempts to fill it with available inventory, and there is an additional two week transportation delay before the material being shipped by the supplier arrives at the customer who placed the order.The goal of the retailer, wholesaler, distributor, and factory, is to minimize total cost, either individually, or for the system.3.Running the SimulationNOTE: We have attempted to make the computerized version of the Beer Game faithful to the original version. Because of this, the sequence of events, particularly those relating to shipping and order processing delays, is a bit complicated. A careful reading of the description below will make the game clearer and more intuitive.When the Beer Game is started, the following screen appears:Figure 1: Beer Game InterfaceIn this simulation, you take the role of a manager of one of the components of the beer supply chain, either the retailer, the supplier, the distributor, or the factory. This will be called the interactive role. The computer takes the remaining roles. On the game display, the interactive role is displayed in color, and the remaining roles are displayed in gray. Also, the information for the interactive roles is displayed but the information for other roles is hidden (with the exception of backorder at the supply chain member immediately upstream from the interactive supply chain member). In the example screen displayed above, the distributor isthe interactive role. Also, by downstream, we mean the direction of the supply chain leading to the external demand, and by upstream, we mean in the direction of the factory. In addition, we refer to components of the supply chain as facilities.Order of events: the simulation is run as a series of weeks. Within each week, first the retailer, then the wholesaler, then the distributor, and finally the factory, executes the following series of events, as the simulation proceeds upstream:Step 1.The contents of Delay 2 is moved to Delay 1, and the CONTENTS of Delay 1 is moved to inventory. Delay 2 is 0 at this point.Step 2.Orders from the immediate downstream facility (or in the case of the retailer, external customers) are filled to the extent possible. Remember that an order consists of the current order, and all accumulated backorders. Remaining orders (equal to current inventory minus the sum of the current orders and backorder) are backlogged, to be met as soon as possible. Except for retailers, which ship orders outside the system, the orders are filled to the Delay 2 location of the immediate downstream facility. This is the start of the two week delay.Step 3. Inventory and backorder costs are calculated.Step 4. Orders are placed. If this is the interactive role, the user indicates the desired order amount. If this is one of the automatic roles, the computer places an order using one of several typical inventory control schemes.Delays and Order Filling: Note that this sequence of events implies several things. First, once an upstream facility fills an order, there is a two period delay before this material can be used to fill a downstream order. Also, there is a one period order delay. This means that if, for example, the retailer places an order for 5 units in this period, the wholesaler does not even attempt to fill the order until next period. This period, the wholesaler attempts to fill the order from the previous period. This can be considered a one period order processing lag. Thus, there is a total of three periods of delays between when a facility places and order, and when the results of that order arrive in inventory.Also, recall that there is no guarantee that an order will be met, even with that three period lag. An upstream supplier can only fill an order if it has the necessary inventory.Otherwise, it will backlog that order, and attempt to fill it as soon as possible. The exception to this is thefactory. There is no production capacity lime, so the factory's order will always be filled in its entirety after the appropriate delay.4.Understanding the ScreenEach facility in the supply chain is represented on the display. As an example, the Distributor is displayed below:On the left, the number of items in inventory is displayed. The next two elements (going from left to right) represent items in transit to inventory, that is, the numbers in the box labeled Delay 1 represent the number of items which will arrive in inventory in one week ,and similarly for Delay 2. The box on the right lists (1) the total inventory and shortage cost up to the current time; (2) the backorder, that is, the demands which have been received at this facility, but not yet met due to lack of inventory; and (3) the most recent order placed by this facility, in this example the Distributor, to its upstream facility, in this example the Factory. Note that in this case, backorder refers to orders received by the Distributor not yet met from inventory. To find out the orders placed by the Distributor which have been backlogged, that is, not yet met by the factory, check the backorder at the Factory. Also, the box recent order displayed here represents the most recent order sent by the Distributor to the Factory. There is a one week lag before this order arrives at the upstream supplier.5.Playing the GameTo start the game, select Start from the Play menu, or push the start button on the tool bar. The computer will automatically play the first round for the automatic facilities downstream from the interactive facility. For example, if the Distributor is the interactive facility, the computer will play for the Retailer and the Wholesaler, in that order.Once this is completed, the first round for the interactive facility is played. Steps one and two (advance inventories and fill orders, described in the section labeled Order of Activities) are completed. At this point, inventory numbers are updated on the screen, and the Order Entry dialog box appears. The screen looks as follows:Figure 2：The first round of the gameExamine this screen in detail. Recall (you can see this from the previous screen shot, on page 2) that the initial inventory was 4, and both Delay 1 and Delay 2 contained 4 units. This holds true for each of the supply chain facilities. Now, steps one and two have been completed. As you can see from the Order Entry dialog box, there is initially no backorder and no order from the Wholesaler. Since the starting inventory was 8 (the initial 4 plus 4 from Delay 1), 8 remain in inventory. Delay 2 is now empty. This is the first round, so there are no previous orders from the Distributor to the Factory, so the recent order box read 0. However, it this was a later round, and there was a order placed by the Distributor to the Factory in the previous round, it would appear in the recent order box.The Order Entry dialog box indicates how much total backorder and order was faced by the interactive player (again, in our example, the Distributor) in this round, and how much of it was successfully filled. Note that the backorder box (indicated by an arrow in the figure above) on the right side of the screen indicates the current level of backorder, while this dialog box shows the level of backorder at the beginning of this round, before the player (in this case, the Distributor) attempted to fill downstream orders (in this case, from the Wholesaler). At this point, enter a demand amount. This can be zero, or any other integer. Remember that you are trying to balance inventory holding costs and shortage costs.Also, by looking at the backorder box at your supplier (in this example, the Factory), you can see how much backorder your upstream supplier already has to fill. That is, how many items you have ordered in prior rounds but have not yet received..Once an amount has been entered, the remaining upstream supply chain members play automatically, and the screen isupdated. If you enter an order of 3 for the Distributor, the remainder of Week 1 play is carried out, and the Distributor portion of the screen looks like:The order of 3 is reflected in the recent order box.To play the next round, select Next round from the Play menu, or push the next round button on the tool bar. The computer again automatically plays the next round for the automatic facility downstream from the interactive facility. Once again, the order entry dialog appears. At this point, both Delay 1 and Delay 2 show an inventory of 0, since the inventory was advanced and Delay 2 was initially zero. Recall that after you input an order, the upstream supplier (in this case the Factory) will try to meet last period's order of 3. If you order 6 this period, and then the remaining upstream supply chain members play automatically, at the end of Week 2 the distributor portion of the screen will look like:Continue play by selecting Next round from the Play menu, or pushing the next round button at the beginning at each round. At any time, you can view a graph of your performance to date by selecting Player from the Graphs menu, or pushing the player graph button. This graph will display orders, backorder, inventory, and total cost over time. A sample graph follows:Figure 3: Performance of the player (distributor)6.OptionsThe Beer Game has many different options available to players.These were implemented to increase the player's understanding of many different aspects of supply chain management.For example, it is possible to switch from the default decentralized play to a centralized mode of play, in order to clarify the advantages of centralized supply chain management. Also, leadtime throughout the system can be decreased, in order to observe the effect of shortening lead time on system performance.Each of these options can selected using the appropriate commands .Each of the commands and options in the Beer Game can be selected from the menu. A list of menu commands follows:•File|Reset:This command resets the game. All data from the previous game is lost.•File|Exit : This command exits the Beer Game, and returns you to the Windows environment.•Options|Player: This command displays the Player Dialog and sets the interactive player to be the player selected.•Options|Policy: This command displays the Policy Dialog so that policies for each of the automatic players can be selected.•Policy DialogIn this dialog, policies and policy parameters for the computer-controlled players are selected. Six policies are available.Note that by inventory position in the following, we mean the sum of inventory at a location, backorder owed to that location, items being transported to that location, and backorder owed by that location.Figure 4: Inventory policies available in the gameo s-S When the inventory position falls below s the system places an order to bring the inventory position to S .o s-Q When the inventory position falls below s the system places an order for Q .o Order to S The system places an order to bring the inventory position to S .o Order Q The system orders Q .o Updated s The order up to level s is continuously updated to the following value: the moving average of demand received by that player over the past 10weeks (or fewer if 10 periods have not yet been played) times the lead time foran order placed by that player, plus M times an estimate of the standarddeviation of during the lead time (based on the same 10 week period). Whenthe inventory level falls below s , the system orders up to s . However, themaximum possible order size is S. Also, the ordering for the first four weeksis adjusted to account for startup by not ordering (or including in the movingaverage) demand during the first week at the wholesaler, the first two weeks atthe distributor, and the first three weeks at the factory.o Echelon This is a modified version of the standard echelon inventory policy. The value of s for each of the players is determined asfollows. Let AVG(D) be the ten week moving average of external customerdemand, let STD(D) be the standard deviation of that external demand, letsqrt(a) be the square root of a, and let L equal three in the regular game, andtwo in the short lead time game (described below). Then, at each period at eachstage, s is determined as follows:retailer: s = L * AVG(D) + M*STD(D)*sqrt(L)wholesaler: s = (L-1+L) * AVG(D) + M*STD(D)*sqrt(L-1+L)distributor: s = (2*(L-1)+L) * AVG(D) + M*STD(D)*sqrt(2*(L-1)+L)factory: s = (3*(L-1)+L) * AVG(D) + M*STD(D)*sqrt(3*(L-1)+L)When the inventory position falls below s , the system orders up to s . However, the maximum possible order size is S .In addition, the parameters s , S , Q, and M can be independently set for each player. Note that these rules have no effect on the interactive player.o Options|Short Lead Time: This command shortens system lead times by eliminating delay two from the system. Each lead time is thus shortened byone week.o Options|Centralized This command toggles between standard play and centralized play. In centralized play, the interactive player manages the factory. External demand can be observed, and the factory manager can react to it. In addition, when inventory reaches a stage, it is immediately sent forward to the next stage, so that inventory is only held by the Retailer. This implies that more information is available to the player, and that lead time is shortened, since there is no order delay at any stage except the Factory.o Options|Demand This command displays the Demand Dialog and sets the external customer demand. Demand Dialog: In this dialog, play can be switched between Random Normal and Deterministic demand. For the Deterministic Demand, a different constant demand can be selected for a number of initial weeks, and the remainder of play. Similarly, for Random Normal Demand, a different mean and standard deviation can be selected for the initial weeks, and the remainder of play.oFigure 5: Demand patterns available in the gameo Options|Global Information: This command displays inventory and cost information at all of the stages, not just the interactive stage. Also, this is the default setting for centralized play.o Play|Start: This command starts play.o Play|Next Round: Once play has started, this command continues play. Each week, this command must be selected in order for play to continue.o Graphs|Player This command displays a graph of orders, backorder, inventory, and cost for the current interactive player.o Graphs|Others : This command displays the Player Dialog and then displays a graph of orders, backorder, inventory, and cost for the selected player. PlayerDialog is for player selection, either to change the interactive player or for reportpurposes. Click on the player button or name to select a player, and then selectOK . To cancel the command, select Cancel.Note that if none is selected, thecomputer will take all of the roles, so that the player can observe the results.o Graphs|System This command displays a graph of cumulative orders, backorder, inventory, and cost for the entire system.o Reports|Player This command displays the Status Report for the current interactive player .o Reports|Other This command displays the Player Dialog and then displays the Status Report for the selected player.o This dialog is for player selection, either to change the interactive player or for report purposes. Click on the player button or name to select a player, and thenselect OK . To cancel the command, select Cancel .Note that if none isselected, the computer will take all of the roles, so that the player can observe theresults. Status report lists all orders placed by the player listed at the top of thedialog, as well as the mean and standard deviation of these orders.o Reports|System: This command displays the System Summary Report .This report summarizes the mean and standard deviation of orders placed by each ofthe players to this point, as well as the total cost experienced by each of theplayers. In addition, the total system cost is summarized at the bottom of thedialog.Deliverable（实验报告要求）:Each student is required to write a report about how he or she has understood the Bullwhip effect through playing different roles in the computerised Beer Game.Report Length: 2-3 pages (A4)。
教师啤酒游戏ppt课件
活动结束后的回顾（四）
• 如何做到系统思考？
29
五项修炼
• 自我超越 • 改善心智模式
• 建立共同愿景 • 团体学习 • 系统思考
(Personal Mastery) (Improving Mental Models) (Building Shared Vision) (Team Learning) (System Thinking)
啤酒游戏
• “啤酒游戏”是由六十年代麻省理工学 院的史隆管理学院开发（Sloan School of Management）。
• 反应出“蝴蝶效应”。 • 系统思考。
2
目的
• 经历在复杂系统中工作的角色 • 体会结构是如何产生行为的
3
场地介绍
环 节
购原
生产
材料
produce
接单 下单
啤酒游戏
BEER GAME
✓
不同的心态对问题的判断会大相径庭，所以改善心智模式对改变我们做事
的方法是非常必要。（思考、看待问题的角度）
31
五项修炼
• 建立共同愿景 (Building Shared Vision)
✓ 把我们个人的努力和成功实现的要求和组织整体的目标统一起来
• 团体学习
(Team Learning)
✓ 通过深度汇谈等学习方式，让个人的智慧变成集体智慧的合力
5
规则
• 各职责任务、步骤说明：
每个环节有《说明书/步骤表》一张 《库存、欠货纪录表》一张 铅笔一只 即时贴一本
每个环节中右侧的人负责《说明书/步骤表》 每个环节中左侧的人负责《库存、欠货纪录表》
• 游戏步骤：统一指挥
6
规则
• 对于各“啤酒公司”的考核目标： 减少本公司的总成本
啤酒游戏的案例
啤酒游戏的案例在闻名世界的管理名著《第五项修炼》中介绍了一个含义深刻的游戏——啤酒游戏，它是美国麻省理工学院的斯隆管理学院于六十年代开发出的一个简单而重要的游戏，参加游戏的人可以通过亲自操作而深刻体会到系统思考对解决复杂问题所起到的巨大作用。
此游戏模拟的是一种品牌的啤酒（“情人啤酒”）的生产与销售系统，游戏需要三个参加者：该啤酒的制造商、把啤酒卖给顾客的零售商以及处于制造商和零售商中间销售环节的批发商。
游戏开始前我们设定三者的关系：由于“情人啤酒”的销量一直很稳定，零售商和批发商的库存数量、货物周转时间及制造商销售主管的生产周期都很稳定。
零售商、批发商与制造商三者之间很少见面或聊天，每周一次的订单是彼此间唯一的联系。
零售商、批发商、制造商销售主管三人有充分的决策权，他们行为的共同目的都是获取最大利润。
现在市场上“情人”啤酒的需求发生变化时，游戏开始了：一个月前，电视台播放的一首新流行歌曲中提到了“情人啤酒”，但零售商和批发商对此一无所知。
零售商只看到“情人啤酒”的销量在某一周突然增加了一倍——由每周4箱变为8箱，而且自此居高不下，这使库存的数量骤减，零售商不得不加大订单。
批发商的处境与零售商类似，只是更加严重，面对零售商高出平时3－4倍的需求和自己的大数额订货迟迟不到货，内心的焦虑使批发商的订货数量由正常状况的每周10卡车增至30车、40车、直至60车。
订货的飞速上升使销售主管成了公司的英雄，工厂从零售商发现需求增加的第五周开始加大生产量，到处一片繁忙景象：延长工作时间，增加工人奖金，计划招募新员工……而未完成的订货数量仍在不断上升，市场似乎成了一个“无底洞”。
当最终完成了批发商订货的需要生产量时，大批啤酒源源不断地运往批发商和零售商时，零售商的订单却变成了“0”，而且持续如此，连锁效应使批发商面对着堆积如山的啤酒无计可施，销售主管因危机造成的解雇工人和关闭生产线而受到责备，于是销售主管走访了批发商和零售商，想弄清发生了什么。
啤酒游戏ppt课件ppt
啤酒游戏流程
01
订单阶段介绍
订单阶段是啤酒游戏流程的第一个阶段，主要涉及客户需求的接收和订单的生成。
02
客户需求预测
在订单阶段，需要对客户需求进行预测，这需要对市场趋势、历史销售数据以及客户反馈等信息进行综合分析。
03
订单确认与生成
根据客户需求预测的结果，进行订单确认，并生成具体的订单信息，包括产品类型、数量、交货时间等。
需求预测的重要性
02
需求预测是应对需求波动的重要手段。通过准确的需求预测，企业可以提前做好库存规划和生产计划，避免因需求波动带来的损失。
供应链协同的作用
03
供应链协同可以有效地缓解需求波动的影响。通过与供应商、物流商等合作伙伴的紧密合作，企业可以更好地应对需求变化，提高供应链的稳定性和效率。
供应链协同的优势
灵活调整策略
根据市场变化和企业实际情况，灵活调整策略，以适应市场需求的变化和企业发展的需要。
均衡策略
啤酒游戏分析
需求波动对供应链的影响
01
在啤酒游戏中，需求波动是常见的现象，这会导致供应链的不稳定和成本的增加。因此，企业需要采取措施来应对需求波动，如建立弹性库存、提高供应链的响应速度等。
需求波动分析
交货阶段
交货阶段介绍
根据物料需求计划，制定详细的生产计划，包括生产排程、生产进度以及生产资源分配等。
生产计划安排
在产品生产完成后，进行质量检查，确保产品符合客户要求，并安排发货，确保按时将产品送达客户手中。
质量检查与发货
啤酒游戏策略
通过提前预测市场需求，企业可以抢占先机，占据库存和供应的主动1
供应链管理能提高效率
通过协调和管理供应商、生产商、分销商和零售商等各方的资源，供应链管理能够提高整体运作效率，降低成本。
案例一：啤酒生产和销售的“啤酒游戏”——彼得·圣吉博士[美]彼得·..
![案例一：啤酒生产和销售的“啤酒游戏”——彼得·圣吉博士[美]彼得·..](https://img.taocdn.com/s3/m/ba3cd5608f9951e79b89680203d8ce2f00666537.png)
案例一：啤酒生产和销售的“啤酒游戏”—— 彼得·圣吉博士[美]彼得·圣吉博士的“啤酒游戏”在教室与管理训练讲习会中被玩过了好几千次。
在五大洲都有人玩过这个游戏，参加的人有不同年龄、国籍、文化和行业背景。
这是有一定程度的仿真游戏。
在这一游戏中，扮演生产者和销售者角色的人们，往往按常规做：如果需要啤酒，就向上游发出订单；如果订货的啤酒没有按预期时间送到，就要发出更多的订单。
游戏中，若客户有个微小的需求波动，如增加4箱啤酒，一级批发商可能就要增加80箱，依次波及二级批发商、制造商。
由于啤酒零售商向批发商订购啤酒的数量总是得不到满足，于是就不断增加要货量，而批发商也向生产商不断追加计划，从而引起啤酒工厂产量的不足，而当工厂增购设备生产出了批发商所需要的啤酒时，因为实际的客户需求并未增加多少，零售商不得不停止了要货，最后造成啤酒工厂产品、批发商、零售商库存的大量积压。
令人感到惊异的是，每次玩这个游戏，总会发生相同的危机。
首先是大量缺货，整个系统的订单都不断增加，库存逐渐枯竭，欠货也不断增加。
随后好不容易达到订货量，大批交货，但新收到的订购数量却开始骤降。
到结束之前，几乎所有参加游戏的人，都在为他们无法降低的庞大库存而一筹莫展。
其实，消费者的需求是相当稳定或仅有过小的增加。
然而，以上所言“欠货—存货”的循环变化仍然发生。
问题：1. 从以上资料中你能体会到什么？2. 需求真实性是如何被放大的？3. 为什么人们对需求的表达、理解的误差，有“顽固性”、可重复性，会放大需求，产生误导，从而导致“过热”？案例二：St.Dismas医疗中心是市区一家非营利性的康复中心，拥有450张床位。
目前入住病人开始明显减少。
St．Dismas的使命是致力于重伤和重病的住院病人和门诊病人的康复。
尽管病人人数每月不同，但St．Dismas理事会却感到住院病人在缓慢且稳定地下降。
医院市场调研人员报告，由于汽车安全带和自行车／摩托车头盔的普及，重伤人数越来越少。
供应链啤酒游戏
供应链啤酒游戏论文选做题目：啤酒游戏论文:牛鞭效应就是指供应链中下游消费者的需求轻微变动导致上游企业生产、经营安排剧烈波动的效果，这就是逐级放大的牛鞭效应(The Bullwhip Effect)或者说是供应链中的下游企业的需求信息在向上游企业传递时发生的放大现象。
Sterman在库存管理场景实验中，用“啤酒游戏”（Beer Distribution Game）证实了牛鞭效应，认为供应链中的成员是非理性的,并主张通过加强个人教育来弱化牛鞭效应。
这个实践以四人为一组，分别代表供应链中的生产商、经销商、批发商和零售商。
实验过程中，由指导教师代表消费者发出订货，每个经营者将根据本期从各自下游经营者收到的订单发出货物，并以此为依据参考销售的历史记录预测未来需求的变化，结合本期期末库存量向上游的供应商发出订单。
任意两个经营者之间的订单传递需要两个经营周期，货物的运送也需要两个经营周期，换句话讲，每个经营者从发出订单到得该订单的订货需要四个经营周期。
这样，在经营一段时间以后，首先消费者需求出现微小调整，随后零售商、批发商、分销商的订单、库存量相继出现波动，并且，沿供应链回溯波动幅度越来越大，“牛鞭效应”的痕迹越来越明显。
这个游戏在《第五项修炼》与《供应链系统设计》这两本书中均有极为详细的解释。
结论该故事讲的是啤酒的制造商、批发商和零售商之间的关系。
原本三者之闻的销售、批发和制造基本维持了一种“平衡状态”。
就生产商、批发商和零售商而言，距离终端越远，对市场需求的把握度越弱，由此引起的库存波动也越大。
与实际需求量的偏差也越大．信息不畅通，供应链各环节相互分割，仅从自身利益着眼，要么，订单奇大；要么。
订单骤减，这样剧烈的动荡，势必使整个系统处于非良性运转中，严重者将使整个供应链系统陷于瘫痪状态．“牛鞭效应”还与企业所处的物流环境有极大关联。
订货交易成本的存在，运输中规模经济的影响，乃至订单处理、仓储管理的落后，现代化通信手段的匮乏，都会直接导致经营者延长订货周期，加大订批量。
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案例：百事可乐游戏
通过做这个游戏，你可以深刻体会一下现代企业的竞争已经不是单个企业
之间的竞争了，每个企业所要关注的是整条供应链的成本和交付速度（响应时
间）。
王启明是上海百事可乐有限公司的运营副总裁，主要负责公司的原材料可
乐浓缩液的采购和销售渠道建设业务。
他和公司采购经理李涛、销售经理杨鹏
一起在公司的大厅里交流了一下公司最近发生的一些不寻常的加班现象以及经
常性的高库存现状。
“分销商给我们的订单告诉我们最近市场销量上涨，因为他们的订单数量比上个月的多了大约有30%，可能是上个月王菲的上海演唱会起到了作用，要知道我们支付给王菲的广告费可是惊人的，作为百事可乐的形象代言人，这点影响力还是应该有的。
我认为我们应该满足分销商的需求，要知道我们得依靠他们把可乐卖出去。
”销售经理非常自信的对王启明说道。
没等杨鹏说完，采购经理李涛就迫不及待的解释说：“我们采购部们是根据订单的情况，经过综合分析后做出采购可乐浓缩液决策的。
从广州百事可乐有限公司运到上海需要两周时间，我们得考虑两周后的市场需求情况。
我认为我们的采购决策没有任何问题。
虽然浓缩液的库存总是让人捉摸不透，有的时候缺货，而有的时候库存积压得几乎把公司得流动资金都占用了。
但是我得说的是，我们部门每个人都是预测专家，而且我们是集思广益进行小组讨论后才做出采购决策的。
”
就在采购经理说得激动的时候，公司市场研究部经理刘峰走了过来，他手里拿着最近一个月市场需求情况的调研报告。
“王总，我正在找你，你要的市场调研报告已经出来了。
从报告的数据来看市场需求的变动并不大。
虽然我们最近的广告量还在上升。
但市场好像没有反应，或许等到市场起反应还有一段时间，去年这个月的情况就是这样的。
”
“我想我们得仔细考虑一下现在所出的问题了，不寻常的加班现象居然和可乐以及可乐浓缩液的高库存同时发生，简直是难以想象。
来，我们一起做一个角色扮演的游戏吧。
”王启明说完就把三位部门经理拉到了总经理边上的一个会议讨论室。
角色扮演
“让我想一下，让我们从采购可乐浓缩液到消费者买可乐的这个过程中到底有哪些企业主体参与到其中了。
”
“分销商，”销售经理立刻就说道，“我认为我们得重点处理好与他们的关系。
”
“我想不能仅仅考虑分销商，批发商的作用也不能降低了，要知道是他们直接给零售商供应的可乐，而且我对分销商一直没有什么好感，他们总是和我谈折扣率，说实话，我真对他们的做法感到厌恶。
”看来王启明对销售部门的工作并不是十分满意。
这是刘峰插话道：“我看以前我们没有对零售商引起足够的重视。
从这次市场调研的过程中我
们深刻领会到了这一点。
客观的说从他们那里得来的数据才值得信赖。
”
“我认为我们广州的百事可乐浓缩液厂应该常委我们分析问题原因的一个主要组成部分，他们的服务态度实在是太差了，高得惊人的浓缩液价格使我们的销售利润已经快到盈亏平衡点了。
真是难以想象他们的服务水平会是如此的差，他们总是不能确定给我们供货的时间。
但我还是认为我们的采购决策没有任何问题，都是他们的问题。
”采购经理李涛说着说着已经开始有点进入状态了。
“多想想我们自己的问题吧，”王启明打断了采购经理李涛的埋怨，“来，我们大家一起来模拟一下我们公司所处的供应链的运作。
”
“杨鹏，你就扮演分销商吧，你与他们有直接业务联系，应该比较熟悉他们的运作模式。
” “刘峰，你扮演批发商，虽然你对终端消费者的需求做了调研，但对批发商和零售商的需求你也应该去调研一下。
”
“李涛，作为采购经理，你实际上完全是按照生产计划展开采购业务的，你就作为制造商吧。
” “谁扮演零售商呢？平时我们对他们的了解并不够深入，我认为我们得好好研究一下他们了。
刘峰，你去把我的助理找来，让他扮演一下零售商。
”
“我不想扮演任何角色，我只想做一名消费者、一名旁观者，我得看看问题到底出在什么地方。
” 初始设置
王启明拿来一些画报纸，在上面确定出一些与公司有关的主体。
供应链中每个主体的现有存货都为12瓶可乐，运输提前期都为两周（假设没有制造提前期）。
运输在制品为每次4瓶可乐。
具体的初始情况见图1所示。
游戏步骤
每个游戏主体，供应商、制造商、分销商、批发商以及零售商都按照以下所列示的步骤参与游
运输延时 运输延时
运输延时 运输延时
图1 百事可乐游戏的初始状况图
戏：
（1）收到在途物品（可乐或浓缩液）。
（2）查看收到的订单和上一期的缺货量。
（3）记录库存量或缺货量（上一期缺货量必须在新一期中先予以满足）。
（4）从采购商那里传来的传送单上记录可以供应的数量。
（5）把传送单还给采购商。
（6）做出采购决策。
（7）记录订单数量。
（8）把采购单传给供应商。
（9）回到第一步。
每一次总是消费者给零售商下一个订单，然后是零售商向批发商下一个订单，再然后是批发商向分销商下一个订单，再然后是分销商向制造商下一个订单，再然后是制造商向供应商下一个订单，供应商无限供应。
一共要经过20次运作。
每一次总是王启明根据消费者的需求，随机产生一次需求，并且把它写在订单表上传给零售商。
每条供应链之间的相同的主体可以相互进行谈判以获取产品，例如在一条供应链的批发商小组已经严重缺货，而另一条供应链的批发商小组的产品出现了大量库存，那么这两个小组就可以进行谈判，进行产品买卖（或者租借）。
在课堂上做游戏时，每个小组由4个人组成为最好，每条供应链大约18个人（供应商只需要两人，他们负责百事可乐的搬运与供应）。
所以在40人左右的一个班级正好可形成两条供应链。
所需的可乐大约是250瓶左右。
如果可乐不方便，可以用硬的纸杯替代。
现在我们可以开始百事可乐游戏了。
游戏结束评价
游戏结束后，王启明从以下几个方面进行了评价：
1.同一条供应链中不同主体成员的成本比较
游戏20期结束后，每一条供应链需要计算出：供应链中的存货总数、缺货总数、客户订单完成率、存货成本、缺货成本、总成本、然后每个供应链之间逐项进行比较。
2.同一条供应链中不同主体成员的变异性比较
游戏20期结束后，计算出每一条供应链中每一主体的订单的波动程度（方差）。
库存的波动（方差），并且同一条供应链的成本要进行比较。
3.供应链之间相同主体成员的比较
游戏20期结束后，计算出每一条供应链中每一个主体的存货总数、缺货总数、客户订单完成率、总成本。
并且不同供应链之间的零售商与零售商要进行比较，批发商与批发商之间要进行比较，分销商与分销商之间要进行比较，制造商与制造商要进行比较。
4.供应链之间相同主体成员的变异性比较
游戏20期结束后，计算出每一条供应链中每一主体的订单的波动程度（方差）。
库存的波动程度（方差）。
并且不同供应链之间的零售商与零售商要进行比较，批发商与批发商之间要进行比较，分销商与分销商之间要进行比较，制造商与制造商要进行比较。
游戏奖项
游戏结束后根据评价分析可以评选出三个奖项：最佳供应链合作奖、最低成本奖、最佳团队合作奖。