中国如何度过金融危机时期

How can China fight the current financial crisis and maintain long-term stable deve lopment?After three decades of reform and opening, China's economy has always maintained hi gh-speed development. GDP from around 362 billion Yuan in1978 increased to around 3 0 trillion Yuan in 2008, which had grown by over 80 times(National Bureau of Statis tic of China ,2009) .However, although China has benefited from globalization in th e last three decades, China has also got many serious troubles from globalization, such as environmental problems, inequality and corruption. In addition, the current global financial crisis is one of the big troubles from the current neoliberal glo balization and the dream of free market capitalism has been shattered (Wolf, 2008).Neoliberalism is a political philosophy, a continuance and redefinition of the neoc lassical theories of economicscentral principle of neoliberal policy. The central p rinciple of neoliberal policy is untrammelled free markets and free trade including free capital flows（Chang，2007）. Neoliberal movements ultimately changed the wor ld's economies in many ways, such as growth in international trade and cross-border capital flows, elimination of trade barriers, cutbacks in defense spending and in public sector employment, higher living standards, increasing technology transfer a nd innovation. However, its negative effects are also very serious. More and more e conomists claim high inequality is spurred by neoliberal policies which produce pro found political, social, economic, health, and environmental constraints and proble ms. Unfortunately, all these disasters have happened in China.So, how can China respond to the financial crisis and further development? In this paper, Keynesianism is highly suggested to lend guidance to fighting the financial crisis; furthermore, improving education can help China maintain long-term stable d evelopment.Keynesianism is a macroeconomic theory based on the ideas of 20th-century British e conomist John Maynard Keynes. Keynesian economics argues that private sector decisi ons sometimes lead to inefficient macroeconomic outcomes, and therefore advocates a ctive policy responses by the public sector, including monetary policy actions by t he central bank and fiscal policy actions by the government, to stabilize output ov er the business cycle(Sheffrin, 2003).Keynes contended that aggregate demand for go ods might be insufficient during economic downturns. Therefore, government policies could be used to increase aggregate demand, thus increasing economic activity and reducing unemployment and deflation. Likewise, during economic overheating, governm ent policies could be used to eliminate inflation to balance and stabilize the econ omy.business cycle To many the true success of Keynesian policy can be seen at the onse t of economic recessionsWorld War II, which provided a kick to the world economy, r emoved uncertainty, and forced the rebuilding of destroyed capital. Keynesian ideas became almost official in social-democratic Europe after the war and in the U.S. i n the 1960s. Also the success can be seen in the last few years in China. In the wa ke of the financial crisis of 2007-2009 the free-market consensus began to attract negative comment even by mainstream opinion formers from the economic Right. In Mar ch 2008, free-market guru Martin Wolf, chief economics commentator at the Financial Time announced the death of the dream of global free-market capitalism, and quoted Josef Ackermann, chief executive of Deustsche Bank, as saying "I no longer believe in the market's self-healing power."(Financial Times). Macro economist James K Gal braith, used the 25th Annual Milton Friedman Distinguished Lecture to launch a swee ping attack against the consensus for monetarist economics and argued that Keynesia n economics were far more relevant for tackling the emerging crises (Galbraith,2009) . Starting in 2008, high level policy makers in the world's modern economies have shown a renewed interest in implementing economic solutions in accordance with the recommendations of Keynesian economics— such as fiscal stimulus and government int ervention (Kale, 2008). Keynesian Keynesian thinking influences U.S. President Bara ck ObamaBarack Obama. In a speech on 8 January 2009, President Obama unveiled a pla n for extensive domestic spending to combat recession, further reflecting Keynesian thinking (BBC wedside). For policymakers and their supporters around the world, Ke ynesian solutions are currently seen as representing the best option for saving the ir nations from the finacial crisis.The following will discuss why and how China should adopt Keynesianism to fight the current financial crisis and maintain sustainable development from three aspects: stimulating domestic market, optimizing the import and export structure, continuing to implement macro-economic regulations.Firstly, stimulating the domestic market is an urgent task for the government. Keyn es argued that government policies could be used to increase aggregate demand, thus increasing economic activity and reducing unemployment deflation(Alan, 2002). Acco rding to Keynesianism, China should reinforce the domestic market as a way to fend off the global reverberations from the economic downturn.First, China’s ove rdepend ence on international trade is very vulnerable ,which is sometimes effected by the global uncertainty . According to National Bureau of Statistics of China, in the la st few years, the total exports count for around 40% of the China’s GDP. However, the current crisis has greatly shrunk external demand, which has resulted in the cl osure of thousands of factories and a rise in unemployment, especially in developed coastal areas. Masses of unemployed workers will cause great concern over social and political instability in the next several years. Second, the export-oriented gro wth model cultivates strong inertia, locking China in at the lower end of the value -added chain. If China is going to keep its position as the “world’s factory” —a place of low-cost assembly lines — the country cannot substantially improve its real productivity in terms of research and development and manufacturing technology. For example, many state-owned firms became assembly lines for foreign-brand cars, and the major profits went to foreign investors. Third, overdependence on internati onal demand has weakened Chinese foreign policy. This external dependency limits Ch ina’s policy options when it comes to responding to such issues as human rights, T aiwan, trade friction and even quarrels with Japan over history textbooks. Chinese leaders often face the accusation of not doing enough and being too soft.In order to extend the domestic demand and stimulate the domestic market, the Chine se government should take the following effective measures. Firstly, the government should continue to put additional investments in the infrastructure projects. The Keynesian economists argue that fiscal stimulus raises the market for business outp ut, raising cash flow and profitability, spurring business optimism. To Keynes, thi s accelerator effect means that government and business could be complements rather than substitutes in this situation. Second, as the stimulus occurs, gross domestic product rises, raising the amount of saving, helping to finance the increase in fi xed investment. Finally, government outlays need not always be wasteful: government investment in public goods that will not be provided by profit-seekers will encour age the private sector's growth. That is, government spending on such things as bas ic research, public health, education, and infrastructure could help the long-term growth of potential output. In November 2008, the Chinese government announced that it will undertake an economic stimulus program to assist the domestic economy. A $586 billion economic stimulus spending package was announced that includes develop ing infrastructure projects as a means of sustaining the Chinese economy (the Earth Times). According to Keynesianism, China is on the right track and the government should continue to do so.Also,boosting per-capita income is a way to accomplish this.Keynes suggest to raise the per-capita income during the economic recession. He argued that to boost emplo yment, real wages had to go down: nominal wages would have to fall more than prices. However, doing so would reduce consumer demand, so that the aggregate demand for g oods would drop. This would in turn reduce business sales revenues and expected pro fits. Investment in new plants and equipment—perhaps already discouraged by previo us excesses—would then become more risky, less likely. Instead of raising business expectations, wage cuts could make matters much worse. Further, if wages and prices were falling, people would start to expect them to fall. This could make the econ omy spiral downward as those who had money would simply wait as falling prices made it more valuable—rather than spending. Falling prices can make a depression deepe r as falling prices and wages made pre-existing nominal debts more valuable in real term s.If all economy actors reduced their expenditure and cut wages, “they will a ll be worse off”( Chang,2007:145). However, the current wage level in China is too low,which affects the healthy development of the consumer market. Low-wage policies become a barrier or domestic market development. Moreover,as the income gap widens, the rich consume luxury imported products . Therefore, the domestic consumer marke t is still in a state of atrophy. Low-wage policies underestimating the value of hu man capital, resulting in a vicious circle.low-wage policies is not conducive to en terprises to adopt advanced technologies and lock the enterprises in the developmen t of labor-intensive industries. Opposing to low-wage policies does not mean sugges ting high-wage policy, but facilitates the coordination of the relationship between accumulation and consumption.Beijing has seen some success with recent policy chan ges, such as raising the minimum threshold for income tax and hiking salaries for c ivil servants. But becouse of curruption ,many civil servants are already rich. The refore the government should raise the income of teachers and workers.however, it i s also not easy to be implimented because of corruption. As a result, the increased salary can not reach the people or reach them very late. Domestic demand cannot be boosted immediately.More importantly, the Chinese government should offer better education and social w elfare, including medical insurance and pensions. That's because nervous Chinese to day put too much money into "precautionary savings," They know they might get hit b y a health-care bill, that they have to put their kids through school and also save for old age, because there is no pension system for 80% of the Chinese people(Chan, 2006).To Keynes, excessive saving, i.e. saving beyond planned investment, was a ser ious problem, encouraging recession or evendepression depression. Excessive saving results if investment falls, perhaps due to falling consumer demand, over-investmen t in earlier years, or pessimistic business expectations, and if saving does not im mediately fall in step, the economy would decline.Once the government takes on thes e responsibilities, people will be inclined to save less and spend more. On another aspect, according to the founder of Chinese reform Denxiaoping, China will let som e people become rich, and then help the poor. Offering better education and social welfare is one of the best ways to help the poor. Unfortunately, that's not likely to happen in the near term.In addition, in order to promote consumption , the government should establish dive rsified financing channels to change the past planned economy under the conditions of the financing channels for a single pattern, such as playing the。