国际金融英文版PPT CH5
Big Mac in China costs ￥11.00, while the same Mac in U.S. costs $3.41. The actual exchange rate was ￥7.6/$ at the time. The implied exchange rate according to absolute PPP should be: ￥11/$3.41 = ￥3.23/$ The dollar was overvalued. An overvalued currency is a currency in which the actual value is higher than the value it is supposed to be. Otherwise, it is an undervalued currency.
%ΔS = πd – πf
πd, πf: domestic and foreign inflation rate
The equation shows if domestic inflation is high than foreign inflation, the foreign currency will appreciate against the domestic currency by the percent consistent with the inflation differencial.
Price index is an index number of the prices of goods of some given type. PC = (∑i PitWit)/(∑i Pi0Wi0)
Absolute PPP Exchange rates between currencies are determined in long run by the amount of goods and services that each currency can buy. Sd/f = Pd / Pf
A change in price results in the movement along the supply curve. A change in supply shifts the supply curve to the right or left. A change in supply can be: increase or decrease in German income German taste in favor of Japanese goods or services rise or fall in Japanese prices
A change in demand and supply
A change in demand (Increase in demand) ￥/€ S€
A change in supply (Increase in supply) ￥/€ S1€ S2€
￥130 ￥120
￥130 ￥120
D2€
of euros
10,910 16,000 20,308
The supply of euros is in essence the German demand for yens. $/€ ￥130 ￥120 ￥110 Q of €s 10,910 16,000 20,308 S€
A change in price results in the movement along the demand curve. A change in demand shifts the demand curve to the right or left. A change in demand can be: rise or fall in Japanese income Japanese taste in favor of German goods or services rise or fall in the price of German goods
D1€ Q1 Q2 Q of €s Q1 Q2
D€
Q of €s
Equilibrium exchange rate is an exchange rate at which the demand for and supply of the foreign exchange are equal. ￥/€ S€ ￥120 D€
The undervaluation of the RMB is calculated by: (1/7.6 – 1/3.23)/(1/3.23) = -57.5%
Or equivalently, it can also apply the following formula: Implied exchange rate – Actual exchange rate Actual exchange rate (3.23 – 7.6)/7.6 = -57.5% The actual value of RMB is undervalued against the dollar by 57.5%. The Big Mac Index is not perfect because the burgers cannot be traded across borders and prices are different due to the differences in taxes or cost of inputs.
The Big Mac Index
The Big Mac Index (cont.)
The Hamburger Standard
The “Big Mac Index” as it has been nicknamed by the Economist is a prime example of the purchasing power parity. Assuming that the Big Mac is identical in all countries, it serves as a comparison point as to whether or not currencies are trading at market prices.
16,000
Q of €s
Market Intervention
Central banks buy and sell foreign exchanges in the market to influence the exchange rate. ￥/$ S 1$ 7.00 S 2$ 6.80 E 6.60 E’
Exchange
Price of German
Quantity
Demand
German export Good in €s
10 10 10
rate ￥/€
export good in ￥s
1,100 1,200 1,300
of German exports
2,000 1,600 1,200
for euros
Chapter 5
Exchange Rate Determination and Forecasting Exchange Rates
A Simple Model of the Determination of the Foreign Exchange Rate
Assumptions for the model: 1) No obstructions or controls on foreign exchange transactions 2) No government interferences to manipulate the exchange rate
The foreign exchange rate is determined by the market forces of supply and demand.
The demand for foreign exchange is a derived demand. That is to say, the foreign exchange is not demanded because it has an intrinsic value in itself, but rather because of what it can buy.
Quantity
Supply
Japanese export rate ￥/€ good in ￥s
1,200 1,200 1,200 ￥110/€ ￥120/€ ￥130/€
export good in €s
10.91 10.00 9.23
of Japanese exports
1,000 1,600 2,200
20,000 16,000 12,000
￥110/€ ￥120/€ ￥130/€
The demand for euros
￥/€
￥130 ￥120 ￥110 D€ Q of €s 12,000 16,000 20,000
The supply of euros
Price of
Exchange
Price of Japanese
The following example shows the demand for and supply of euro determines the value of .
The demand for euros
Price of
Quantity of $s
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国际金融英文版PPT(共46页)
The exchange rate would fluctuate between (0.80 + 0.008) = 0.8008 and (0.80 – 0.008) = 0.792
0.8008 and 0.792 are called gold export and import points.
The BOP disequilibrium was corrected by “Price-specie-flow mechanism”.
Example of gold export and import
If the gold par value in New Zealand was NZ$125/ounce and A$100/ounce in Australia, so mint par of exchange: 100/125 = A$0.80/NZ$ Costs of gold transportation: A$0.008/NZ$
The Classical Gold Standard (1876 – 1914)
The gold standard was a commitment by participating nations to fix the price of their domestic currencies in terms of a specified amount of gold.
International monetary system is based on the exchange rate system adopted by individual nations. The exchange rate system is a set of rules governing the value of a currency relative to other currencies.
0.8008 and 0.792 are called gold export and import points.
The BOP disequilibrium was corrected by “Price-specie-flow mechanism”.
Example of gold export and import
If the gold par value in New Zealand was NZ$125/ounce and A$100/ounce in Australia, so mint par of exchange: 100/125 = A$0.80/NZ$ Costs of gold transportation: A$0.008/NZ$
The Classical Gold Standard (1876 – 1914)
The gold standard was a commitment by participating nations to fix the price of their domestic currencies in terms of a specified amount of gold.
International monetary system is based on the exchange rate system adopted by individual nations. The exchange rate system is a set of rules governing the value of a currency relative to other currencies.
国际金融英语International Finance 课件
c) The goal of employment
Full employment, but not zero unemployment. A certain natural rate of unemployment is about 5 to 6 percent. (demand for labor equals the supply of labor)
• Balance of payments versus full employment and growth is a second conflict.
• Maximum employment versus sustainable growth (low-inflation growth) is a third conflict.
b) Types of unemployment i) Frictional unemployment（摩擦性失业） involves searches by
workers and firms to find suitable match-ups, is beneficial to the economy.
b. A Stable Price Level
Price stability is desirable because a rising price level (inflation) creates uncertainty in the economy, and it may hamper economic growth. If there is a tendency of the rise of price level, the central bank will decrease money supply to slow down the economy to curb inflation.
Full employment, but not zero unemployment. A certain natural rate of unemployment is about 5 to 6 percent. (demand for labor equals the supply of labor)
• Balance of payments versus full employment and growth is a second conflict.
• Maximum employment versus sustainable growth (low-inflation growth) is a third conflict.
b) Types of unemployment i) Frictional unemployment（摩擦性失业） involves searches by
workers and firms to find suitable match-ups, is beneficial to the economy.
b. A Stable Price Level
Price stability is desirable because a rising price level (inflation) creates uncertainty in the economy, and it may hamper economic growth. If there is a tendency of the rise of price level, the central bank will decrease money supply to slow down the economy to curb inflation.
International finance chapter3 (国际金融英文版课件)
A forward rate is a rate applicable to a financial transaction that will take place in the future.
The Bid rate is the rate at which you can sell. The Ask (or offer) rate is the rate at which you can buy. Bid/Ask Spread The difference between the bid and ask prices. In thinly traded markets, this spread may be wide. The mean is the average of bid and ask rate. The cash rate is the exchange rate used in cash transaction.
THE BASICS OF CURRENCY TRADING
Multiple exchange rates The system by which a country's currency has more than one exchange rate with any foreign currency. The rate which applies to any transaction may depend on the holder of the currency, or on the purpose for which it is being used.
THE BASICS OF CURRENCY TRADING
国际金融英文课件5
1.
பைடு நூலகம்
Demand and supply of currency
2.
Sterling is sold on foreign exchange markets when Goods and services are imported (domestic consumers and firms sell sterling to finance their purchase of imports or when they go overseas on holiday) Speculators sell pounds for another currency Investment capital flows out of the UK seeking a better rate of return Central banks go into the market and sell pounds to buy other foreign currencies. When the demand for sterling is high relative to supply, sterling goes up in value (an appreciation). The reverse is true when the market supply of pounds exceeds the demand (a depreciation).
The role of interest rate
International financial investors have an incentive to shift toward dollar-denominated assets, and this increases the demand for dollars in the foreign exchange market. The dollar tends to appreciate immediately. Furthermore, we can determine that the dollar should appreciate to about $0.4975 per SFr, assuming that the interest rates and the expected future exchange rate do not change. Once this new current spot exchange rate is posted in the market , the SFR then is expected to appreciate during the next 90 days at a faster rate, equal to about 6 percent. This re-established uncovered interest parity (5 percent interest plus about 6 percent expected appreciation matches the 11 percent American interest) and eliminates any further desire by international investors to reposition their portfolios.
国际金融课件internationalfinance
06
中国国际金融的实践与展望
中国国际金融业在规模和业务范围上不断扩大，成为全球金融市场的重要参与者。
中国国际金融业在推动经济增长、促进国际贸易和投资等方面发挥了重要作用。
改革开放以来，中国国际金融业经历了从无到有、从小到大的发展历程，逐步建立起较为完善的金融机构体系和金融市场体系。
中国国际金融的发展历程与现状
Global financial markets facilitate the flow of capital across borders, allowing for the efficient allocation of resources and the hedging of risks.
Regional financial markets serve specific geographical regions and are often associated with trade blocs or economic unions.
01
国际金融危机的定义
由于国际金融市场上的过度投机、金融监管缺失等原因，导致国际金融市场出现大规模动荡，影响各国经济的稳定。
02
国际金融危机的传染机制
通过贸易、金融和信息等渠道，将危机从一个国家传递到另一个国家。
国际金融危机及其传染机制
1
2
3
通过监测和分析国际金融市场的相关信息，及时发现潜在的风险点，采取应对措施。
02
03
04
05
Main International Financial Centers and Their Characteristics 主要国际金融中心及其特点
ห้องสมุดไป่ตู้
国际金融英文版PPT课件
3.Origin of the market A number of reasons have been given for the origin of the Eurocurrency market.Some analysts go so far as to say that the Soviets initiated the process of trading Eurocurrencies before the western Europeans used foreign deposits.
derivatives
3
Non-bank
❖ Public international financial institutions
public global financial institutions
regional public
national public
❖ Private international financial institutions
International finance
Foreign direct investment
Inventory of international
Financial resources
1.non-bank financial institution financial resources
2.international financial markets
5
International derivatives exchange-traded
❖ Users of derivatives/risks of derivatives ❖ Currency futures and options ❖ Interest rate futures and options
derivatives
3
Non-bank
❖ Public international financial institutions
public global financial institutions
regional public
national public
❖ Private international financial institutions
International finance
Foreign direct investment
Inventory of international
Financial resources
1.non-bank financial institution financial resources
2.international financial markets
5
International derivatives exchange-traded
❖ Users of derivatives/risks of derivatives ❖ Currency futures and options ❖ Interest rate futures and options
国际金融学英文课件：ch06 International Banking
Consequently, very few nations’ investment projects are purely domestically financed. Most of the largest banking institutions, called megabanks, are located in Japan and Europe. Economies of scale can explain the existence of megabanks whose operations span the globe. Some economists believe that a particular form of economies of scale may explain the existence of megabanks: economies of scale in information processing.
Potential rivalry, or banking competition, measured by portion of total deposits/assets concentrated among a nation’s largest banks, is the main indicator of bank market structure.
12
Section 2: Banking Around the Globe
Business of banking varies from nation to nation. Each country has its own unique banking history,
and this fact alone accounts for distinctive features of national banking system. Banks’ role; bank market structure; legal environment;
国际金融英文PPT课件 (5)
International Parity Conditions and Exchange Rate Determination
5
Chapter Five
Chapter Objective: This chapter examines several key international parity relationships, such as interest rate parity (IRP) and purchasing power parity (PPP).
5-2
5.1.1 Interest Rate Parity Defined
IRP is an “no arbitrage” condition. If IRP did not hold, then it would be possible for
an astute trader to make unlimited amounts of money exploiting the arbitrage opportunity. Since we don’t typically observe persistent arbitrage conditions, we can safely assume that IRP holds.…almost all of the time!
Spot exchange rate 360-day forward rate U.S. discount rate British discount rate
S($/£) = $2.0000/£
F360($/£) = i$ = i£ =
$2.0100/£ 3.00% 2.49%
5-10
Covered Interest Arbitrage
5
Chapter Five
Chapter Objective: This chapter examines several key international parity relationships, such as interest rate parity (IRP) and purchasing power parity (PPP).
5-2
5.1.1 Interest Rate Parity Defined
IRP is an “no arbitrage” condition. If IRP did not hold, then it would be possible for
an astute trader to make unlimited amounts of money exploiting the arbitrage opportunity. Since we don’t typically observe persistent arbitrage conditions, we can safely assume that IRP holds.…almost all of the time!
Spot exchange rate 360-day forward rate U.S. discount rate British discount rate
S($/£) = $2.0000/£
F360($/£) = i$ = i£ =
$2.0100/£ 3.00% 2.49%
5-10
Covered Interest Arbitrage
国际金融英语International Finance 课件
Bank (lender) Public investors
capital
a company (borrower)
principal with interests
A company may borrow long-term funds by issuing long-term corporate bonds to the public. It is a temporary transfer of ownership of funds from the bond buyers (investors) to the company. And the company promises to pay back the principal with interests to the bond buyers in the future. Here, commercial or investment banks play the role of financial intermediation and collect fees for this services, instead of interests.
机械工业出版社。 6、《经济学原理》，Gregory Mankiw, 机械工业出版社。 7、《中央银行英语教程》、《商业银行英语教程》、
《证券市场与投资银行英语教程》，李若谷、张燕铃、 和广北等，新华出版社。 8、《金融市场与机构》，Jeff Madura, 北京大学出版社。
Recommended Media for Learning
II. Functions of Money
A. Medium of Exchange (流通手段）— basic function B. Standard of Value (价值尺度）— basic function C. Store of Value (价值储藏） D. Standard of Deferred Payment (延期支付标准） F. World Currency (世界货币）
国际商务金融ch5外汇风险管理
中英合作商务管理与金融管理证书考试系列课程
高等教育自学考试
中英合作商务管理与金融管理证书考试
国际商务金融
课程代码：11750
播放状态下点鼠标开启幕布
课程代码：11750 国际商务金融
1
中英合作商务管理与金融管理证书考试系列课程
课程体系结构
第一章：国际商务概述 第二章：外汇与国际收支
美国进口英国商品,3个月支付100万英镑
即期汇率: GBP1=USD1.5256 3个月远期: GBP1=USD1.5943
视频：人民币升值阴影笼罩出口企业 课程代码：11750 国际商务金融
11
中英合作商务管理与金融管理证书考试系列课程
对外债权债务的清偿风险
我金融机构在东京发行10亿日元为期10年的武士债券,所 筹资金兑换成美元,用于发放10年期美元贷款,支持国内大 型投资项目 即期汇率: USD1=JPY112.27 10年远期: USD1=JPY85.88
课程代码：11750 国际商务金融
18
中英合作商务管理与金融管理证书考试系列课程
5．2.1 外汇风险管理的战略
根据对外汇风险的不同态度，企业或外 汇银行可以有以下几种战略可供选择： (1)消极等待战略 消极等待战略即对外汇风险不采取任何 措施，完全听之任之，如果汇率朝有利自 己的方向变化，则坐收其利，汇率朝不利 方向变动，则甘愿蒙受损失。
视频：石齐平：中国可利用人民币升值来对抗通胀 许小年 人民币升值与加息双管齐下抑制通胀 课程代码：11750 国际商务金融
9
中英合作商务管理与金融管理证书考试系列课程
外汇风险对于微观经济的影响：
高等教育自学考试
中英合作商务管理与金融管理证书考试
国际商务金融
课程代码：11750
播放状态下点鼠标开启幕布
课程代码：11750 国际商务金融
1
中英合作商务管理与金融管理证书考试系列课程
课程体系结构
第一章：国际商务概述 第二章：外汇与国际收支
美国进口英国商品,3个月支付100万英镑
即期汇率: GBP1=USD1.5256 3个月远期: GBP1=USD1.5943
视频：人民币升值阴影笼罩出口企业 课程代码：11750 国际商务金融
11
中英合作商务管理与金融管理证书考试系列课程
对外债权债务的清偿风险
我金融机构在东京发行10亿日元为期10年的武士债券,所 筹资金兑换成美元,用于发放10年期美元贷款,支持国内大 型投资项目 即期汇率: USD1=JPY112.27 10年远期: USD1=JPY85.88
课程代码：11750 国际商务金融
18
中英合作商务管理与金融管理证书考试系列课程
5．2.1 外汇风险管理的战略
根据对外汇风险的不同态度，企业或外 汇银行可以有以下几种战略可供选择： (1)消极等待战略 消极等待战略即对外汇风险不采取任何 措施，完全听之任之，如果汇率朝有利自 己的方向变化，则坐收其利，汇率朝不利 方向变动，则甘愿蒙受损失。
视频：石齐平：中国可利用人民币升值来对抗通胀 许小年 人民币升值与加息双管齐下抑制通胀 课程代码：11750 国际商务金融
9
中英合作商务管理与金融管理证书考试系列课程
外汇风险对于微观经济的影响：