伯南克公开课 第一讲：美联储的起源与使命bernanke-lecture-one-20120320
7418069_伯南克：开放资本账户，中国会怎样？
Ben Bernanke : Former Fed chairman Ben Bernankelanded in Shanghai on May 25, 2015 to attend Shanghai Forum 2015 held by Fudan University, conversing with ZhangJun, dean of School of Economics.Out of the halo and stress of chairing Fed, Bernanke, the former chairman whom the market has loved with mixed feelings, shared memories of the crisis, views on QE, and comments on emerging markets especially China’s opening up capital account and RMB SDR.Fed, and also one of the benchmarks for raising interest rate.) Speaking of deflation, the monetary system collapsed in 1930s and commodity prices fell by 10% annually. No one was willing to purchase and corporations had no intention to invest. Deflation was a great enemy we faced.Interest cut is a conventional monetary policy for the central bank. But by the end of 2008, the Fed had cut federal funds rate to somewhere near 0, so we had to implement unconventional monetary policies.Therefore we had QE1 and the financial market was stabilized and economy began to recover in the second half of 2009. We were still worrying about deflation risks afterwards, so we carried on with QE2 and QE3. We believe QE is beneficial for the US economy. It’s no panacea but it did help the economy. America was recovering faster than Europe and Japan and is not facing deflationary risks like Europe and Japan do.Zhang Jun: Could you share some of the hardships you experienced during the crisis?Bernanke: As a matter of fact, I never imagined this kind of crisis when I was appointed. The economy was doing well in 2006 and nobody knew what would happen. So I took the position.Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008 and panic followed. Handling the Lehman problem was really agonizing for me. No buyer could afford Lehman’s debt, so Lehman Brothers had no choice but bankruptcy. But Fed saved AIG with the aid of treasury. Different from Lehman, AIG had enough mortgage for Fed and treasury to come to the rescue and extended its $85 billion maturing loan.President Bush doubted this rescue solution back then. When we reported this to President Bush, he asked, “What are the other options?” And we answered, “None.” So in the end he had to show support.Opposition and resistance against TARF came from the congress. A senior congress said to me, “I appreciate the way you handle things, but I want you to note this, it’s your responsibility and your decision.”Obviously, not only was I fighting the crisis, I was also shouldering political responsibilities. Despite all the hatred, we had to rescue the economy and carry out QE. We tried very hard.Zhang Jun: What would you say about Greenspan and Yellen?Bernanke: I came to Washington in 2002 and joined the Federal Reserve on August 5 as candidate for decision committee. I had never served in the government before that. Back then Alan Greenspan was called Mastreo. I once worried that he was so famous that I could not be equally competent.Janet Yellen is very experienced and even better than me. She used to be vice chairman. She is a very wise economist and we have very good terms. At present, she is carrying on the policies we laid down together.If US going strong Favorable interest rate increase Zhang Jun: In what ways was the implementation of QE difficult? How do you view the2013 tapering tantrum?Bernanke: QE has been effective but really difficult to work with. First of all, there had been no precedent. We had no experience in this regard so we had no idea how this would work out. And it’s pretty had to communicate with the market.The tapering tantrum in May of 2013 was the best example. I only said “we will consider tapering if economy recovers and deflation eases” when the economy started to pick up. But there were investors who innocently believed there would be QE Eternity. So some of them thought Fed would end QE immediately after they heard my comments. But I thought I was being very clear. In December 2013 when we announced tapering the market was quite calm. You see how delicate market communicate could be. We will uphold monetary policy transparency and communication efficiency whatsoever.Zhang Jun: When do you think the Federal Reserve will raise interest rate? What impacts will that have on the emergingmarkets?Bernanke:I’m not sure of that. I hope the US economy will maintain the growth. Market is based on expectation, therefore communication is very important. Responsibilities fall on the Fed as well as on the market. As long as the US economy is recovering with effective communication there shall not be huge fluctuation I think. If interest rate rises when the economy is strong, it will benefit other countries.Zhang Jun: Would you predict on the long term growth rate of the US economy? What kind of accelerating impacts will the new technologies have on the economy?Bernanke: Nobody knows. Economists are very good at telling you what was wrong before.But in the long run, the growth will slow down, for labor force and technology innovations will slow down. It is still unknown whether technology progress will increase productivity and reduce demand for labor force. After the crisis neither companies nor research institutions have enough money. As the economy recovers, things start to look up and productivity might increase.How will new technology accelerate the economy? It’s hard to predict. But I’m pretty optimistic. I believe IT, bio-tech, nanotech, robots will propel the economy and they will become economically important. But it’s hard to say how important innovative companies like Facebook will be for GDP.More importantly, how will economic growth achieve equitable distribution when new technology comes along? How to ensure everyone could enjoy the fruits of technology? Robots could push the overall economy forward but at the same time, eliminate the incompetent ones. So it’s crucial that not everyone could benefit from economic growth. This is when education stands out.Opening capital account Crucial part of growth strategyZhang Jun: The world has been somewhat pessimistic towards Chinese economy. Do you see a hard landing or collapse of Chinese economy?Bernanke: The slowing down of Chinese economy is totally predictable. China will not enjoy 10% annual growth forever. The more sophisticated companies become the slower growth will be. Part of the slow-down is due to adjustment of economic growth model. China has been relying on investment in heavy industry like infrastructure and real estate which is more central controlled, while nowadays it’s transferring to industries like service and high-tech which relies more on social innovation. This adds to the complexity in control and prediction but it’s important for economy to grow from the bottom up.Zhang Jun: China is pushing forward open capital account. Will that introduce fluctuation to the market?Bernanke:Controlled capital account could undoubtedly reduce or erase market fluctuation but at the same time suffocate economic growth; therefore opening up capital account is a crucial part of the growth strategy. It’s just that the country need to think through before opening up capital account, it could only be beneficial when the economy is strong and could well adopt capital inflow and resist outflow and use the capital wisely.Zhang Jun: What do you think of introducing SDR to RMB? Is there any possibility that RMB will become global reserve currency?Bernanke: I think introducing SDR into RMB is more symbolic. During the process, China needs further reform of the financial market before RMB could become the world’s reserve currency. I believe in the mid-term US dollar will remain the major reserve currency.Zhang Jun: How are you doing after leaving office?Bernanke:Life is going pretty well right now. My wife is teaching and I joined Brookings Institution. I just finished my new book which will be published this fall.那场始料未及的危机 美联储主席不易做张军：过去的危机和金融理论研究到底对于当前的政策制定有何帮助？伯南克：我在麻省理工学院攻读博士学位时，对于过去的危机做了很多研究（伯南克最感兴趣的是美国20世纪30年代的经济大萧条）。
伯南克第4讲大纲：金融危机的影响
伯南克第4讲大纲：金融危机的影响2012年03月30日北京时间3月30日凌晨，美联储主席伯南克稍早时在乔治-华盛顿大学商学院进行了针对该院学生系列讲座的第4讲，题目为：金融危机的影响。
这是伯南克“反思美联储及其在当今经济环境中作用”系列讲座的最后一课。
以下是伯南克本次讲座的大纲。
第四讲金融危机的影响美联储恢复金融稳定的努力1、2008年秋季的金融危机威胁到全球金融体系的稳定。
2、作为最终贷款人，美联储通过提供流动性(短期抵押贷款)来帮助稳定关键的金融机构和市场。
3、美联储与财政部、其它监管机构(比如美国联邦存款保险公司与美国证券交易委员会)一道紧密配合。
4、与其它国家央行协调，推出并建立海外货币互换机制。
- 美联储向其它国家央行提供美元并换取他国货币。
- 货币互换机制使海外央行能满足国内金融机构对美元的融资需求。
联储为加强银行系统而持续努力- 2009年春，联储领导了对美国19家最大银行的压力测试，帮助恢复投资者信心，并允许银行业筹集约1400亿美元的私人资金。
- 联储进行的最近一轮压力测试显示，银行资本和银行业的抗冲击能力均进一步显著改善。
评估特别最终借贷人项目结果：项目阻止了各类金融机构的挤兑- 恢复了金融市场的机能，重新启动信贷流，支持了经济恢复增长- 项目已于2010年3月基本上逐步停止美联储因此面临的金融风险很小：1、贷款多为短期，并有抵押品；数千笔贷款未发生违约；2、尽管这些项目的目的是稳定金融体系而不是获利，但纳税人还是获益了。
危机期间的货币政策- 美联储采用最终贷款人政策来稳定金融系统。
美联储转向货币政策来稳定经济并促进经济复苏。
- 传统货币政策涉及目标短期利率(联邦资金利率)的管理。
因为当联储降低短期利率时，长期利率倾向于下跌，而长期利率下降倾向于鼓励耐用消费品、住房及资本货物采购，削减联邦资金利率有助于刺激经济。
- 货币政策由联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)主导- 每年FOMC在华盛顿集会八次。
伯南克指公式
伯南克指公式美国联邦储备委员会(FED)于今年3月31日宣布，美联储(FED)推出新的量化宽松政策。
美联储(Fed)行长伯南克、副主席鲍威尔在该政策声明中说，美联储已与通胀上升趋势保持一致。
伯南克表示，美国经济将长期保持强劲增长并使通胀达到2%目标。
经济前景的任何重大变化将取决于合适的时机调整美联储的货币政策。
央行可以在不增加新利率的情况下提供更多流动性给市场。
伯南克说：“我相信联邦储备委员会现在是时候推出量化宽松政策了，这一政策不会改变方向，因为它使通胀比以前任何时候都低，因为它使经济更加有效。
”去年10月31日美联储公布的《联邦储备法》(Federal Reserve Act)第19条规定：“利率为一货币或基准利率”。
这一次不是“实际利率”而仅指联邦基金目标利率（即联邦基金期货市场的标的股票交易价格中所包含的各种债券的平均价格),而是指数式。
这一点可以从美联储自己编写的指数以及与之相关工具里得到证实。
MARKET指是伯南克、鲍威尔和美联储根据联邦公开市场委员会(Federal Real Exchange Committee)所制定的市场情况而设定的货币政策反应时间。
这也是美国联邦储备制度在20世纪80年代开始运行以来，最重要的一个指数，在美国经济运行中起着十分关键作用。
对银行来说它是一个非常重要和至关重要（也正是现在所说）问题。
它决定了通货膨胀或金融稳定目标是否实现。
这一标准被认为是美联储作为货币政策制定者所应遵循至今的惯例：只要通胀超过2%,美联储就会出手干预（但前提是货币政策不变),因为如果通货膨胀上升，则会进一步导致通胀率下降，而不是将其维持在目标之下。
美联储通常在3月会议后就公布行动计划。
联储为防止经济过热并刺激经济增长而采取多项措施以实现上述目的之后发布声明称，美联储发布了所谓“指数”以反映其所1、如果经济运行势头良好，则美联储应该在6个月内将其通胀率提高到2%。
内，将联邦基金目标利率上调至至少2%。
世界名校视频公开课列表
本课程涵盖了数据统计分析的基础内容，共四十二节课。Nicholas P. JEWELL教授主要采取ppt授课方式，让同学们更容易看到合记住知识点。并且复习起来非常方便。
8
《经济学》
斯坦福大学
网易、新浪
中英双字幕
课程简介
很多斯坦福商学院的人自豪地认为，哈佛商学院代表比较传统的经营管理培训，培养的是“西装革履式”的大企业管理人才；而斯坦福商学院则更强调开创新科技新企业的“小企业精神”，培养的是“穿T-恤衫”的新一代小企业家。这种说法有没有道理呢？
13
《美联储与金融危机》
乔治华盛顿大学
新浪
中英双字幕
课程简介
美联储主席本-伯南克将于今年3月份在乔治华盛顿大学商学院中担任四堂课的主讲，内容是阐述美联储在美国经济中所扮演的角色。
14
《银行业危机源起与后果》
英国公开
大学
新浪
中英双字幕
课程简介
2008年秋，全球金融危机，全世界的政府采取紧急措施以防止银行系统崩溃。这场自十九世纪三十年代以来最严重的金融危机造成了经济衰退。在英国，攀升的失业率、下降的房价和突增的政府债务，是银行系统临近崩溃造成的令人忧心的后果。本课深入观察了全球金融市场的衰败，解读银行业危机祸起之处。
耶鲁大学
网易、新浪
中英双字幕
课程简介
本课程通过分析在历史文献中最早的基督教运动提供了对基督教的起源历史研究，主要集中在新约集部分。虽然神学主题将占据我们主要的注意力，但是课程不只对新约的圣经神学部分进行研究。
2
《旧约全书导论》
耶鲁大学
网易、新浪
中英双字幕
课程简介
本课程探讨旧约(希伯来圣经)作为宗教生活的表达和古代以色列的思想，对西方文明的基础性文件。
【专业视频教程】(金融)全集系列 上
【专业视频教程】（金融）全集系列上卡内基伦理国际事务委员会公开课:金融危机全集卡内基伦理国际事务委员会公开..主讲：状态：人气:0次点播内容: 从2007年至今，几乎所有人都感受得到全球金融危机所带来的巨大影响。
发达国家的经济缩水，新兴市场增长缓慢，失业率急速上升。
这些灾难性的后果带来了深重的影响，并引发了一系列关于其起因和含义的问题。
，本网站视频无需安装任何播放器即可观看，安全快捷。
伯南克公开课:美联储与金融危机全集伯南克公开课:美联储与金融危..主讲：状态：人气:0次点播内容: 美国犹太裔经济学家，现任美国联邦储备委员会主席；知名宏观经济学家，主要研究货币政策和宏观经济史；美国艺术与科学学院院士和计量经济学会会士。
曾编著《宏观经济学原理》、《微观经济学原理》等教材。
当地时..，本网站视频无需安装任何播放器即可观看，安全快捷。
耶鲁大学公开课:金融理论全集耶鲁大学公开课:金融理论主讲：状态：人气:0次点播内容: 本课程试图解释金融体系在全球经济中的重要作用。
课程并没有像一般金融理论课程一样，将金融从经济中孤立出来，而是将金融平衡作为经济平衡的延伸来学习。
课程还提供了一种对冲基金角度的思考和分析，将课程与华..，本网站视频无需安装任何播放器即可观看，安全快捷。
哥伦比亚大学公开课:房地产金融学全集哥伦比亚大学公开课:房地产金..主讲：状态：人气:0次点播内容: 随着房地产业和金融业密切关系日益凸现，相应产生了以研究金融机构对房地产的生产、流通和消费等领域提供相关金融服务为主要内容的房地产金融学。
它是一门介于房地产经济学、货币银行学、保险学和投资学等学科之..，本网站视频无需安装任何播放器即可观看，安全快捷。
巴黎高商公开课:第二届金融与统计学大会全集巴黎高商公开课:第二届金融与..主讲：状态：人气:0次点播内容: 第二届高等商学院金融与统计学大会与2010年10月8日在法国巴黎召开，汇集了统计学和金融计量经济学方面的顶级专家，目标受众为学者、投资人和金融工程师，邀请到的发言人有普林斯顿大学的Yacine A..，本网站视频无需安装任何播放器即可观看，安全快捷。
伯南克讲话
伯南克讲话篇一：伯南克讲话原文伯南克央行年会讲话原文20XX年08月27日07:26汇通网手机免费访问|字体：大中小|我有话说以下是美联储主席伯南克在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上的讲话原文：早上好。
如往常一样，感谢堪萨斯城联储组织此次会议。
今年的主题是美国的长期经济增长，把这作为主题是相当中肯的，正如过去几年时间里那样。
尤其是，金融危机及接踵而至的缓慢的经济复苏进程已经促使某些人提出了一个问题，那就是虽然美国仍将拥有旺盛的长期增长，但是否有可能不会面临更长的萧条时期。
人们想知道的是，过去几年时间里非常缓慢的经济复苏进程——不仅在美国如此，在其他许多发达经济体中也是如此——是否会转变成某种更加持久的局面？?东方财富通手机炒股软件某些股割肉出逃肯定会后悔?我当然能够理解这些担忧情绪，而且完全认识到我们在恢复有益于健康增长的经济和财务状况方面所面临的挑战，并将在今天讨论其中一些话题。
但就长期前景而言，我自己的观点更加乐观一些。
就像我将讨论的那样，虽然重要的问题当然是存在的，但美国经济增长的基本面看起来并未因在过去四年中受到冲击而发生了永久性的变化。
虽然可能需要花些时间，但我们有理由预期美国经济将重返与潜在基本面相一致的增长率和就业水平。
但就过渡时期而言，美国经济政策制定者所面临的挑战是双倍的，也就是首先要帮助美国经济从危机和随后的衰退中进一步复苏；其次则是，在这样做的同时，还必须允许美国经济实现其长期增长潜力。
经济政策应依据这两个目标来进行评估。
今天早上，我将提供一些有关为何到目前为止美国经济复苏进程在很大程度上令人失望的想法，此外还将讨论美联储的政策回应。
然后我将回到美国经济长期前景，以及美国经济政策需要在短期和长期前景两方面都必须行之有效的话题上来。
讨论近期经济和政策前景的问题会让我想起，我们是如何落到今天这步田地的。
在20XX年和20XX年中，全球市场被金融危机笼罩，这是大萧条时期以来最严重的一场危机。
伯南克的货币理论和政策哲学
伯南克的货币理论和政策哲学伯南克货币理论和政策哲学之重要性，约有三端。
其一，他是新凯恩斯经济学（New Keynesian Economics）主要代表人物之一。
新凯恩斯经济学继承凯恩斯重视真实世界局限条件之优良传统，摒弃古典经济学“真实经济－货币经济二分法”之假设，致力探索市场不完全性（或摩擦）如何左右经济运行，实乃近20年来经济学最活跃、最重要之进展[1]。
其二，伯南克多年倾心研究之重点，是资产价格动荡时代之货币政策，易言之，货币政策如何应对资产价格动荡，以实现总体经济稳定持续增长之目标。
其研究成果，无论对错或是否完全，皆与今日和未来中国货币政策有绝大关系[2]。
其三，伯南克接替格林斯潘为美联储主席。
纯粹学院出身之经济学者执掌联储帅印，他是第二人。
第一人是阿瑟•伯恩斯（Arthur Burns），哥伦比亚大学教授，1970年1月，由尼克松任命为联储主席，接替担任此职19年之久的比尔•马丁。
伯恩斯的联储成绩并不令人满意，遂令后人对纯学者担任联储主席心存疑虑[3]。
沉迷学术且有重要贡献之人，一朝执掌大权，其决策不可能不深受其理论之影响。
美元本位制时代，美联储乃名副其实的世界中央银行，其一举一动，无不波及世界金融和经济体系的每个角落。
因此之故，经济学者之外，世界各国货币政策决策者，必定高度重视伯南克之货币理论和政策哲学。
然而，伯南克学问引我入胜之处，却不尽在此。
他始终致力以识别和量度某种成本来解释现象和行为，才真正令我心折。
是的，发现成本局限、设法量度成本以解释现象和行为，是经济科学之本质，亦是一位经济学者之斤两所在。
任何理论模型和事实考证，若不是以识别和量度成本为基点，皆是浮泛之论。
一识别和量度真实融资成本，给大萧条以崭新解释伯南克的成名之作，是《金融危机之非货币因素如何加剧大萧条之蔓延》，发表于1983年6月号的《美国经济评论》。
透彻理解大萧条，是伯南克长期为之着迷的重要课题。
他说：“理解大萧条是经济学者一直梦寐以求的高远理想。
伯南克在普林斯顿大学的演讲
伯南克在普林斯顿大学的演讲It's nice to be back at Princeton. I find it difficult to believe that it's been almost 11 years since I departed these halls for Washington. I wrote recently to inquire about the status of my leave from the university, and the letter I got back began, "Regrettably, Princeton receives many more qualified applicants for faculty positions than we can accommodate."重返普林斯顿感觉不错，很难相信，我离开校园赴华盛顿已经11年了。
近期我向校方询问了我的教职问题，回信称：“很遗憾，普林斯顿收到很多更有才华的学者的求职信，而教职有限。
”I'll extend my best wishes to the seniors later, but first I want to congratulate the parents and families here. As a parent myself, I know that putting your kid through college these days is no walk in the park. Some years ago I had a colleague who sent three kids through Princeton even though neither he nor his wife attended this university. He and his spouse were very proud of that accomplishment, as they should have been. But my colleague also used to say that, from a financial perspective, the experience was like buying a new Cadillac every year and then driving it off a cliff. I should say that he always added that he would do it all over again in a minute. So, well done, momsand dads.我将在稍后献上对毕业生的最美好祝愿，首先我要恭喜在座的家长们。