我国农民收入影响因素的多元线性回归分析

我国农民收入影响因素的多元线性回归分析

院系名称：外国语学院

专业：英语（商务）

班级：14 级2 班

学号：*********

学生姓名：***

任课教师：***

摘要：我国一直以来就是农业大国，但始终存在农村经济落后、农民收入增长缓慢等问题，这势必成为我国经济持续稳定增长的障碍。因此正确有效地解决好“三农”问题是中国经济走出困境，实现长期稳定增长的关键。目前,农民收入问题受到了全社会的关注。而影响农民收入的因素却有很多,本文在分析了现阶段我国农业现状的基础上,通过研究农村从业人员占总人数的比重、第二、三产业从业人数占全社会从业人数的比重等内部因素,及农作物总播种面积、农业化肥施用量等外部因素来分析其对农民收入的影响程度。我们通过建立多元线性回归模型进行分析。并采用SPSS对该模型进行检验,在该模型的基础上对影响农民收入的因素进行全面的概括,并提出合理性的建议。

自改革开放以来,虽然中国经济平均增长速度为9.5 % ,但二元经济结构给经济发展带来的问题仍然很突出。农村人口占了中国总人口的70 %多,农业产业结构不合理,经济不发达,以及农民收入增长缓慢等问题势必成为我国经济持续稳定增长的障碍。正确有效地解决好“三农”问题是中国经济走出困境,实现长期稳定增长的关键。其中,农民收入增长是核心,也是解决“三农”问题的关键。本文力图应用适当的多元线性回归模型,对有关农民收入的历史数据和现状进行分析,寻找其根源,探讨影响农民收入的主要因素,并在此基础上对如何增加农民收入提出相应的政策建议。

关键词：多元线性回归模型；模型检验；SPSS；中国农民收入影响因素。

Abstract：The regression analysis is an important part of the statistical analysis model using regression analysis method to study the problem. It is a common and effective method in the study of practical problems. By studying the relationship between the random variables to grasp the main features of the data groups. This article points out the general steps of the regression analysis method and problem-solving. A brief introduction of the two types of relationships between variables, which leads to the definition of a basic linear regression analysis method and its solution to the regression analysis of that we can have an initial understanding. Secondly, we elaborated theoretical model of multiple linear regression, and lists the assumptions of a multiple linear regression model to be followed to explore the unknown parameter estimation method in the multiple linear regression model and its parameters of the test. Finally, through specific case to summarize the extensive application of the multiple regression analysis in various fields of science, focusing on description of the multiple linear regression analysis significantly with sexual judgment independent variable on the dependent variable method, the predict the of role and the using of it’s integrated .

Keywords: multiple linear regression model; test of significance; the SPSS; instance of the application; regression analysis on the influencing factors of farmers' income in China.

目录

摘要 (1)

Abstract (2)

引言........................ . (3)

一、研究目的要求........................................ (4)

二、计量经济模型分析........................................ .. (5)

2.1 数据搜集.............. ....................... ...... . (5)

2.2计量经济学模型建立 ......................... .. (6)

2.2.1散点图分析......................... (6)

三、计量经济模型检验.............. ....................... . (7)

3.1、经济意义检验...................... ...... . (9)

3.2、统计检验....................... ...... .. (10)

3.2.1、拟合优度检验 (10)

3.2.2、F检验....................... ...... ...... (10)

3.2.3、t检验....................... ..... .. (10)

3.2.4、置信区间.... (11)

3.3、模型的最终结果...................... ..... . (13)

四、方差分析................. ....................... ..... .. (13)

五、模型预测.................... ...... ........ . (15)

六、模型总结.................... ...... ........ (16)

参考文献.................... ...... .. (17)