第7课 关于日本的贸易地位外刊经贸知识选读,每课重要知识点,串讲,课文翻译

第7课关于日本的贸易地位

Japan Says No

TOKYO

Once, when Japan faced pressure from abroad, it would either give in reluctantly or keep quiet and hope that the fuss would die down.No longer, it seems.The Clinton administration strongly believes in exerting such pressure.Its policy is to open some Japanese markets (which it deems to be closed) by setting import targets—an approach to trade policy that supporters call “results-oriented”.This ugly term foreshadows uncertain consequences.Far from capitulating to this new thrust要点，目标of American trade policy, Japan is taking a stand that could lead to a trans-pacific confrontation.

从前，日本面对外来压力时，或者勉强屈服，或者保持沉默，并希望这种压力逐渐消失。但现这种情况已经一去不复返了。克林顿政府热衷于拖加这样的压力（依然认为对日施加贸易压力会有效果。）其政策是通过设定进口指标来打开日本某些市场（美国认为日本某些市场是对外封闭的）——这种方法被其支持者称为“以结果为导向”贸易政策。这种牵强的说法预示着不确定的后果。日本非但没有屈服于美国的强硬贸易政策反而采取了一种可能会导致太平洋双岸对抗的矛盾（美日贸易冲突的立场）。

Japan’s government is deeply opposed to what America’s trade representative, Mickey Kantor, has called a new policy geared to“quantifiable results” for some products.It fears that the demands and threats which are part of any such policy are bound to spread—both within product groups and to new areas of trade.At the summit meeting last month between Bill Clinton and Japan’s prime minister, Kiichi Miyazawa, America insisted that Japan should come up with specific measures that would enable it to meet new import targets.Japan’s government will refuse.

日本政府强烈反对美国贸易代表米奇坎特所称的使某些产品适合“定量结果”的新政策。日本担心美国这种要求和威协只是其强硬贸易政策的部分，而注定要扩散。两者都会扩散到产品整个类别并扩散到新的贸易领域。在上月比尔·克林顿和日本首相宫泽喜一的两国领导人峰会上，美国坚持要求日本拿出满足新的进口指标的具体措施。日本政府将会拒绝这一要求。

Instead, Japan is undertaking着手做a detailed defence of its record on trade.This will first appear in the annual white paper on trade developments due to be published on May 21st by the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI)—its definitive statement on trade matters.In addition to the customary dry analysis, this year’s edition will put Japan’s side of an argument that has, until now, been dominated by American and European critiques.It follows another MITI report, published this week that takes America, the European Community and other large trading partners to task for指责某人their “unfair trading practices”.Both reports argue for trade governed by multilateral rules and call for the completion of the Uruguay round of trade talks.

相反，日本正为其贸易记录进行具体的辩护。这将首次出现在日本通商产业省将

于5月21日发布的关于贸易发展的年度白皮书中，这是该省有关贸易事务的权威性阐述。今年的白皮书除了常规的直截了当的分析外，还要提出日本的态度，而以前则是美欧的评论占主导地位。此前，在本周通产省曾发布了另一份报告，谴责美国、欧共体和其他主要贸易伙伴采取了“不公平的贸易做法”。两份报告都认为贸易由多边贸易规则管理并呼吁完成乌拉圭回合贸易谈判。

Besides making worthy free-trade noises, MITI's defence will also tackle American criticism head on.Naoyuki Haraoka, director of MITI's international trade research office is at pains to point out that Japan is in fact more open than other countries.Japan’s average tariff on mining and manufactured goods is 2.7%, compared with 4.2% in America and 4.6% in the European community.The report will also reject驳斥the argument that Japan needs special trade sanctions because it operates a different sort of capitalism.It will try to do so by explaining the nature and future of the country’s trade surplus.

除了发表有价值的自由贸易议论以外，也将针对美国的批评进行辩护。通产省国际贸易研究室主任叶廊不遗余力指出，日本实际上比其他国家更开放。日本对矿产品和工业制成品的平均关税是2.7％，而美国是4.2％，欧共体是4.6％。该报告还将驳斥一种认为由于日本的资本主义制度与他国不同，则需对其实施特殊的贸易制裁的论断。报告将阐述日本贸易顺差的本质和前景来达到此目的。

It is this persistent surplus, more than anything, that has provoked anger in Washington—and Mr.Clinton’s remark that “the possibility of obtaining real, even access to the Japanese market is somewhat remote”.This year the surplus has been growing fast.Jesper Koll, a Tokyo-based economist at S.G.Warburg, estimates that Japan’s trade surplus could reach $200 billion if the yen stays at curren t levels.That is $68 billion more than last year’s figure.Moreover, the bilateral surplus with America is also growing rapidly.Mr.Koll reckons it will climb from $44 billion in 1992 to $78 billion this year, an all-time high.With the economy still barely growing, despite two fiscal packages in the past nine months, Japan’s critics say that the country is once more exporting its way out of recession.

正是也仅仅是由于持续的贸易顺差，而非其他什么东西，激起了华盛顿的愤怒。克林顿说“想要真正获得日本市场甚至是进入日本市场都很遥远”。今年日本贸易顺差增长很快。S.G.瓦尔堡位于东京的经济学家杰斯帕科尔估计，如果日元维持目前的水平，今年日本贸易顺差会达到2000亿美元而比去年增长680亿美元。而且与美国双边贸易顺差也在迅速增长。据科尔估计，日美双边贸易顺差将会从1992年的440亿美元增长到今年的780亿美元而创下历史最高记录。尽管在过去的9个月里日本政府推出了实施了两个财政一揽子计划，但日本经济仍增长缓慢。批评人士指出日本又一次在利用出口摆脱经济衰退的困境。

One defence the ministry will make is that most trade statistics ignore services.MITI estimates, using data from the Bank of Japan, that if Japan’s import of services had been included in its trade statistics, then the grade surplus would have been $84 billion, $48 billion lower than reported.Exclusive惟一的attention to trade in goods is therefore misleading.MITI wants to see better collection of statistics for trade in services by international bodies such as the OECD.

通产省还准备了这样的反驳，多数贸易统计忽略了服务贸易，根据日本银行的统计，如果算上日本的服务贸易进口，那么其贸易顺差将是840亿美元，比现在报

告的数据低480亿美元。因此，只关注货物贸易是有误导性的。通产省希望看到经合组织等国际组织收集更好的服务贸易统计数据。

Surplus, what surplus?顺差，什么是顺差？

Analysis by Mr.Haraoka’s office explains the recent rise in Japan’s trade surplus as follows: because of the recession衰退at home, Japan has seen a decline in expensive imports of luxuries, which were enormously fashionable during the second half of the 1980s.This effect has been compounded, thanks to slow growth elsewhere, by low prices for the international commodities that Japanese industry depends upon.Exports of Japanese machinery, on the other hand, withstood the downturn quite well because the Asian economies that buy them continued to boom.

叶廊下所在部门的分析解释了近期日本贸易顺差增长的原因：由于日本国内经济衰退，昂贵的奢侈品的进口有所下降，而这些产品在20世纪80年代后期却是十分流行的。另外，由于其他地区经济增长放缓，因此日本工业所依赖的国际商品的价格下落，由此使日本贸易顺差更为明显。另一方面，由于购买日本机械产品的亚洲国家经济的持续高速增长，因此日本机械产品出口仍可经受经济疲软而保持持续增长

Also, the American and Japanese economies have been out of kilter.America’s strengthening economy caused an increase in American demand for Japanese imports, while Japanese demand for foreign goods declined.The effect is amplified, MITI argues, because 35% of American exports to Japan are industrial commodities, which are highly sensitive to the business cycle.

另外，美国和日本的经济已经失调，美国日益增强的经济导致了其对日本进口产品的需求增加，另一方面，而日本对国外产品的需求减少。通产省认为，这种矛盾会逐渐增强，因为美国对日本的出口产品35％是工业产品，而工业产品正是在商业周期中最易敏感的。

Having argued that criticism of the trade surplus in Washington is misconceived, MITI’s forthcoming paper goes on to predict that the surp lus will, of its own accord, gradually diminish in size and relevance:

When Japanese demand picks up again, imports will grow more quickly than in past recoveries.This is because the volume of Japanese imports has become more sensitive to the domestic economic cycle.

在提出华盛顿对贸易顺差的错误批评以后，通产省即将发布的报告接着预测这种贸易顺差的规模和重要性将会自动地逐渐缩减：

日本内需再次增长时，进口将会比过去的恢复期增长更快。这是因为日本的进口量对国内的经济周期的敏感度正在提高。

Parts and components account for a growing share of Japan’s exports; 28% of total exports and 36% of machinery exports in 1992 compared with 19% and 28% respectively in 1981.MITI believes that such exports should be of less concern to advocates of managed trade than consumer goods, because components increase the competitiveness—and therefore the export potential—of the industries that buy them.(Advocates of managed trade would doubtless dispute that.)

零部件的出口在日本的出口中占有越来越大的比例：1992年在总出口额和机械产品出口额中占的份额分别为28％和36％，而1981年仅为19％和28％。通产省认为，零部件出口相对消费品出口不太会引起管理贸易倡导者的非议，因为这

些部件的进口有利于提高了购买行业的竞争力，从而改善这些零部件进口行业的出口潜力（管理贸易的倡导者无疑会反对这一点）。

From now on, MITI argues, Japan’s overseas plants will increasingly export their output back to Japan.Before, they bought Japanese exports of equipment and parts.

通产省认为，从现在开始，日本的海外工厂将会越来越多地把出口产品销回日本。此前这些企业是从日本国内购买设备和零件。

Three years of declining profits have followed the over-investment of the late 1980s.Mr.Haraoka predicts that Japanese managers will henceforth act more like Western managers, putting profits before their firms’ market share.In the past, that is, Japanese firms have been export-driven; in future they will be less likely to export their way out of trouble.

20世纪80年代后期的过度投资造成了随后持续三年的利润下降。叶廊下预测，日本的经营者会变得更像西方管理者那样，重视利润超过市场份额。也就是说，日本公司一向是以出口为导向，但将来他们将不太可能通过出口来度过危机。For these reasons, MITI argues, Japan’s trade surplus will fall in due course.However, it says, a persistent surplus (albeit a smaller one) is inevitable as long as Japanese households save more than American ones, and America’s budget deficit remains untamed.This is a familiar point: trade balances are determined by macroeconomic factors,not by trade policy.To this, a sophisticated advocate of the import-target approach could reply that the balance is not the issue.What matter is access to Japan’s markets, America would be content if Japan increased its imports and exports by the same amount (leaving the trade balance, and the associated accounting identities, undisturbed).This reply is disingenuous.American public opinion demands, in its unsophisticated way, a smaller trade deficit.

由于这些原因，通产省认为，日本的贸易顺差会在适当的时候出现下降。但同时也强调，只要日本家庭的储蓄高于美国，美国的预算赤字仍然失控，持续的贸易顺差（尽管数量很小）是不可避免的。这是一个人们熟知的观点：贸易差额是由宏观经济因素决定的，而不是靠贸易政策。对于美国进口指标政策的老练支持者会指出，贸易差额并不是问题，重要的是要进入日本市场。只要日本进出口量的增长幅度相同（不理会贸易差额率和相关的帐目统一），美国就满意了。这种回答是略带诡辩色彩的。美国公众的要求很简单，即缩小贸易逆差。

On trade and other issues, Japan has caved in to outside pressure countless times before, and may do so again.The White House seems to be counting on this.It, and Congress, would be better advised to concentrate on reducing America’s budget deficit.That would reduce the trade deficit regardless of Japan’s trade policies.Threats of trade reprisals, even if they force Japan to give way, will not.

在贸易及其他问题上，日本以前已经向外界压力屈服了无数次，而且可能会再次屈服。白宫似乎在指望这一点。但美国政府和国会最好集中精力考虑如何降低美国的预算赤字。这样，无论日本的贸易政策如何，贸易逆差都会降低。用贸易报复来威胁，即使迫使日本屈服，也不会降低贸易逆差。

----From the Economist.May 15,1993

target n.指标

approach n.（处理问题的）方式；方法

foreshadow v.预示

capitulate (to) v.投降；屈服

(take a) stand n.立场，观点，态度（采取一种态度；持一种观点）be opposed to 反对，对抗

gear to v.使适应；使适合

thrust n.要点；目标

customary a.习惯上的；按惯例的

critique n.评论文章

argue v.提出理由；提供理由

argue for 主张

tackle v.（着手）对付

head on （副词短语）迎头；正面针对地

at pains 尽力；费尽心机；努力

trade sanctions 贸易制裁

persistent a.持久的，持续的；始终存在的

provoke v.激起；引起；惹

access n.接近或进入的机会（权）；享用机会；享用权

obtain access to a market 得到进入一个市场的机会（权利）remote a.绝少的；微乎其微的

reckon v.估计；判断

withstand v.经受；承受

out of kilter 失常；失调

amplify v.增强；扩大

misconceived a.设想错误的

accord n.自愿意志

of one's own accord 出于自愿；主动地

diminish v.减少

relevance n.意义

sensitive to environment 对环境敏感

advocate n.拥护者；提倡者

dispute v.辩驳；争议

henceforth ad.从今以后，从此以后

untamed n.问题；争论点

disingenuous a.诡诈的

sophisticated a.老练的

cave in 屈服

trade reprisal 贸易报复

1.die down: disappear

2、foreshadows: predicts

3.capitulating: giving in

4.geared: adapted

5.amplified: strengthened

6.withstood: resisted

7.misconceived: misunderstood

8.caved in: given in

1.trade sanctions: 贸易制裁

2.obtain access to a market: 得到进入一个市场的机会

3.trade reprisal: 贸易报复

4.trade representative: 贸易代表

5.import targets: 进口指标

6.fiscal packages: 财政一揽子计划

7.multilateral rules: 多边规则

8.quantifiable results: 定量结果

1.自由贸易：free trade

2.管理贸易：manage trade

3.贸易差额：trade balance

4.贸易赤字：trade deficits

5.市场份额：market share

6.白皮书：white paper

7.双边顺差：bilateral surplus

1.… to meet import targets …

2.this new thrust of American trade policy

3.Japan’s average tariff on mining and manufactured goods

4.… the country is once more exporting its way out of recession.

5.… Japan has seen a decline in expensive imports of luxuries, …

6.American’s strengthening economy

7.Their firms’ market share

8.In the past, that is, Japanese firms have been export-driven …

1.Once, when Japan faced pressure from abroad, it would either give in reluctantly or keep quiet and hope that the fuss would die down.No longer, it seems.The Clinton administration strongly believes in exerting such pressure.Its policy is to open some Japanese market (which it deems to be closed) by setting import targets—an approach to trade policy that supporters call ”results-oriented”, This ugly term foreshadows uncertain consequence.Far from capitulating to this new thrust of American trade policy, Japan is taking a stand that could lead to a trans—pacific confrontation.

过去，当日八五年面临着国外压力时，它要么勉强屈服，要么保持沉默，希望这种压力自行消失。现在看起来已不再如此，克林顿政府热衷于施加这样的压力。其政策是通过设定进口指标来打开一些（它认为是封闭的）日本市场——这是支持者称之为“以结果为导向的” 贸易政策。这种不雅的称呼预示着不确定的后果。

对于美国贸易政策所施加的新的压力，日本不仅不会屈服，反而正采取一种可能会导致太平洋两岸对抗的态度。

2.Also, the American and Japanese economies hav e been out of kilter America’s strengthening economy cansed an increase in American deman for Japanese inports, while Japanese demand for foreign goods declined.The effect is amplified, MITI argues, because 35% of American exports to Japan are industrial commodities, which are highly sensitive to the business cycle.

还有，美国和日本经济已失调。美国日益增强的经济导致了某对日本进口品需求的增加；另一方面，日本队于外国商品的需求降低。日本通商产业省提出这一结果扩大是因为35%的美国出口到日本的产品是工业产品，世界对于这些产品是相当敏感的。

3.For these reasons, MITI argues, Japan’s trade surplus will fall in due course, However, it says, a persistent surplus (albeit a smaller one) is inevitable as long as Japanese households save more than American ones, and America’s budget deficit remains untamed.This is a familiar point: trade balances are determined by macroeconomic factors, not by trade policy.To this, a sophisticated advocate of the import—target approach could reply that the balance is not the issue.What matter is access to Japan’s markets, America would be content if Japan increased its imports and exports by the same amount (leaving the trade balance, and the associated accounting identities, undisturbed) This reply is disingenuous.American public opinion demands, in its unsophisticated way, a smaller trade deficit.

日本通商产业省提出，因为这些原因，日本的贸易顺差在适当的时候会下降。然而，它说，持续的顺差（数量尽管较小）是不可避免的，只要日本家庭比美国家庭节约得多，而美国的预算赤字依然会是失控的。这是人们熟悉的一点：贸易差额是由宏观经济因素而非贸易政策决定的。对于这一点，老练的进口指标方法拥护者可能回答说贸易差额不是关键。关键是进口日本市场，如果日本按照同样的数量增加进出口的话，美国将会满意（不理睬贸易差额和相关的结算账目统一）。这种回答是诡诈的。美国公众舆论要求直接而简单，即较小的贸易赤字。