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SPECIAL REPORT - MARKET RESEARCH: No sure way to pick a winner
专题报告——市场研究：没有确定的办法来选择一个赢家

Marketing Week.London: May 19,2005 .pg.45
营销周。伦敦：2005年5月19日。页数45

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Companies invest heavily in product research, seeking out trend- setters and running simulations. They might just as well ask randomly chosen consumers to bet on likely success, says Alicia Clegg Being big can be an asset amid the rough and tumble of business.
公司大量投资于产品的研究开发，寻找制定和运行模拟的趋势。他们可能只是询问随机被选中的顾客去赌可能的成功，艾丽西亚·克莱格说在商业混战之中作为大公司可以是一种资产。

But there is one area where small companies can, and often do, trump their larger rivals - innovation. A single big idea can help an unknown business make a name for itself - think Innocent Drinks or Body Shop. But to stay ahead, in the long run, brands need to break new ground, year after year. It is to solve this problem that many turn to research agencies for some mental stimulation.
但是存在一个领域，在这个领域中，小公司可以，并且也经常这样做，胜过他们规模更大的对手——创新。仅仅一个重要的想法就可以帮助一个不知名的行业为自己立名——考虑Innocent Drinks或Body Shop（注：这是两家公司的名字）。但说在前面，从长远来看，品牌需要有新的突破，年复一年。为了解决这个问题，很多公司把重心放在研究一些精神刺激的机构上。

There are two ways to think about the future of a brand. One is to study the here and now, in order to spot gaps in the market. "People's fundamental needs don't change," says Synovate research manager Alex Maule. "The challenge is to uncover them." An alternative is to hunt for people whose lifestyles and opinions offer clues to the future.
有两种方法能思考一个品牌的未来。一种方法是为了发现市场的空白而研究所处的环境和时代。“人们的基本需求不会改变”，思纬公司的研究部经理亚历克斯·莫尔说。“正真的挑战是发现他们”，一个选择是去寻找那些生活方式和意见会提供对未来要发生事件的线索的人。

Trend-spotting is becoming an industry in its own right. Advertising agencies and brand owners have their radars pointed towards cities such as New York, Sydney, Tokyo and London, where new patterns of behaviour are thought to take shape. Typifying this approach is Breaking Trends, a London-based researc

h consultancy that tours "Alpha" cities interviewing academics, innovators and style experts, and observing urban lifestyles.
发现趋势凭借自身的力量正在成为一个行业。广告公司和品牌拥有者都密切关注于纽约，悉尼，东京和伦敦等城市，在那里新的行为模式被认为初具雏形。这种方法的典型是打破趋势，一个伦敦的研究咨询公司，去“阿尔法”城市旅游的同时还访问当地的学者，创新者和风格设计专家，并观察该城市的生活方式。

CATCHING THE DRIFTS
捕捉趋势

In 2004, the consultancy identified a swathe of emerging global trends for advertising agency JWT. These ranged from the desire of consumers to express their sense of self more creatively, to concerns over health and wellbeing and the blurring of boundaries between gay and straight culture. But do such studies equip marketers to develop future-proof strategies for their brands?
在2004年，众多的咨询公司确定一家名为J·华尔特·汤普森的广告公司的一系列新兴的全球趋势。这些范围从消费者想要更加有创造性的表达他们自我意识的愿望，到担心他们的健康和幸福和同性恋和异性恋文化之间日趋模糊的界限。但是做这样的研究真的能让营销人员为他们的品牌发展出不会过时的技术吗？

Miles Calcraft Briginshaw Duffy joint planning director Giles Hedger thinks the very popularity of the approach could prove its undoing. "There is a tendency for middle-class media professionals, living 24-hour lives, to go off to these fashionable cities and get very excited about the trends they see emerging."
Miles Calcraft Briginshaw Duffy(英国一家机构的名称)的联合策划总监吉尔斯·赫杰认为该方法的极度流行恰恰能证明它的失败。“有一个关于中产阶级的媒体专业人员的趋势，过着24小时的生活，去这些时尚的城市并且对他们看到的新兴事物感觉到非常兴奋。”

But, as he points out, a minority preference - such as organic food - will only take hold if it is affordable and if mainstream consumers feel the product is for them. "You have to put these 'soft' signals into a proper demographic context. Ask yourself who holds the money and what sort of lives most people are living," he says.
但是，就如同他指出的，一些少数偏好——就像有机食品——只有如果它能负担得起，并且主流消费者觉得产品就是提供给他们的，他们才会去拿。”你必须要把这些“软”信号放到一个适当的人口背景里去。问问自己，谁持有着金钱，大多数人过着的是什么样的生活，”他说。

Trend-spotting also carries with it the idea of a linear direction in which society is headed. The reality is much more confused. For an illustration, look no further than the popularity of "authentic" brands and lifestyles, which lives alongside a huge growth in de

mand for Botox injections and cosmetic procedures aimed at changing a person's natural appearance.
趋势发现也有一个社会走向的线性方向的想法。现实情况更加的混乱。例如，看看“可信的”的品牌和生活方式的不再流行，而是生活在一个对旨在改变一个人自然外观的肉毒杆菌毒素注射和整容手术的巨大需求增长。

How a brand responds to such contradictions and disconnections is down to the culture of the company. One approach is to try to impose order on the chaos by modelling the importance of competing trends statistically. The other, says Sanjay Nazerali, founder of brand consultancy The Depot, is to get on with the business of making, rather than reflecting, the future: "Futures are inherently dynamic. Good research is about mapping out the multiple landscapes where brands can legitimately operate."
一个品牌应该如何响应因这种矛盾和断开而下降的公司文化。一种方法是试图通过模型化统计上的竞争趋势的重要性而在混乱中维持秩序。另外一种，“The Depot”品牌咨询公司的创始人————桑贾伊·纳扎拉里说，是试着继续做生意，而不是考虑，未来：“期货本质上是动态的。好的研究应该是关于映射出多重的品牌可以合法地工作的景观。”

FINDING THE FAULT-LINES
寻找薄弱之处

Spotting inconsistencies in people's behaviour can spark ideas for giving consumers more of what they want through a well-judged trade-off of benefits. But the calculation of what consumers are prepared to sacrifice is never risk-free. The success of Ikea's design-led self-assembly furniture was built on just such a gamble. Viewed from one angle (the desire of middle-income earners to furnish their homes stylishly) the offer has obvious appeal. From another angle, the time-poverty of people leading busy working lives, the flat-pack formula looks more like a loser.
通过发现人们的行为中的矛盾，可以触发通过良好判断的利益权衡而给消费者更多他们想要的，这么一个想法。但是消费者们准备牺牲的计算的结果绝不是无风险的。“宜家家居”的自己组装的设计LED家具的成功是建立在这样一种赌博上的。从一个角度看（中等收入者时髦地装修他们的家的欲望）这些提供具有明显的吸引力。从另一个角度看，时间贫困的人们过着工作繁忙的生活，平板式的方案看起来更像一个失败者。

To think about the future creatively, companies need stimulus from many sources - academics and style commentators, as well as consumers themselves. "The power of trend research lies in combining and cross-referencing views from lots of different groups," says Maule. "That's what helps you to pick out the common threads and core needs that underlie passing fads."
用创造性的思维去思考一下未来，企业需要从许多来源的刺激物————

学者和风格评论家，以及消费者本身。“趋势研究的动力在于从很多不同群体中获得结合和交叉的意见，”莫尔说。“那就是帮助你找出构成短暂时尚的基础的共同的线索和核心需求。”

For new product development, some agencies recommend talking to "influential" consumers, the sort of people to whom others turn for tips. The problem is that finding such people can be time- consuming. What is more, someone may be a trusted source of advice for one sort of purchase - mobile phones, for instance - but not for others.
对于一些新产品的开发，一些机构建议去和“有影响力的”消费者沟通，通过这类人其它人可以寻求提示。但是问题是，找到这样的人是十分消耗时间的。更重要的是，有些人可能仅仅会成为一个只有一类商品的值得信赖的来源，例如，移动手机，但不是所有的商品都是这样的。

There is also a suspicion that old patterns of product adoption are breaking down. "Using sources of opinion to predict future behaviour is becoming much more difficult. These days we have lots of little sub-cultures and a huge spread of influences," says Maule. "A product or an idea may take hold within one group but never break out into the wider market."
也存在有一种怀疑————采用旧模式的产品这一现象正在被打破。“使用意见和想法的资源来预测未来的行为正在变得更加的困难。这些天我们有很多小的亚文化却有着一个庞大传播的影响，”莫尔说。“一个产品或一个想法可能会在一个小组里把握住，但绝对不会突破到更广阔的市场。”

THE INFORMED INFORMERS
消息的告密者

Ad agency DDB has a novel way of handling this problem. As well as talking to consumers in focus groups, it has formed a special "grapevine" panel made up of taxi drivers, beauticians, hairdressers and pub landlords. The panel allows DDB to keep tabs on what people from all walks of life are talking about, and creates a channel through which agency staff can float new ideas.
广告代理商DDB有一个处理这个问题的新方法。以及和在焦点团体中的消费者谈话，它形成了一个由出租车司机，美容师，美发师和酒吧主组成的特殊的“小道消息”面板。这一面板允许DDB监视来自各行各业的人都在谈论些什么，并且创建了一个通道，通过这个通道，机构的工作人员可以提出新的思路。

Other marketers have been experimenting too. In his book The Wisdom of Crowds, business writer James Surowiecki argues that in certain circumstances randomly selected crowds make better predictions than experts. Research agency BrainJuicer decided to test this by pitting the conventional method for evaluating new product ideas against a "research market" approach based on Surowiecki's theory.
另外的一些商家也已经试验过了。在他的书中—

—《群众的智慧》，商业作家詹姆斯·索罗维基认为，在某些情况下，随机选择的人能够比专家做出更好的预测。研究机构“BrainJuicer”决定通过用评价新产品的常规方法和以“索罗维基”的理论为基础的“市场研究”的方法进行比较来测试这个判断的正确性。

The aim of the experiment was to evaluate ten ideas for a new household cleaner. For the conventional test, BrainJuicer recruited people who either shopped for, or used, cleaning products. Following standard research practice, each participant was given just a single concept to score. With the research market approach, the group was recruited randomly, with the participants being presented with all ten choices and asked to bet on the winners and losers.
实验的目的是评估关于一个新的家用吸尘器的十个想法。对于传统的测试，“BrainJuicer”招募了一些曾经购买和使用过清洁产品的人。接着的是标准的研究实践，每个参与者都只被给予了一个单一的得分概念。在研究市场的方法里，组都是被随机招募的，参与者被提供了一共十个选项，并且被要求要赌赢家和输家。

Above- and below-average scores for particular ideas were consistent between the two tests. The one really significant difference, however, was that the randomly selected participants gave much lower scores to the least-popular ideas than did the people in the conventional test.
在两次测试里，关于具体想法，超过和低于平均得分是一致的。一个十分显著的差异，然而，是随机选择的参与者对最受欢迎的想法一项比常规测试的人给分更低。

BrainJuicer chief executive John Kearon has drawn some tentative conclusions from the experiment, and he presented them for debate at this year's MRS conference. Firstly, the research market approach may be as good a guide to market success as costlier methods using targeted samples. Secondly, research markets could be an efficient way to weed out weak ideas in the early stages of product development.
“BrainJuicer”的首席执行官约翰·基容从实验中得出了一些初步的结论，并且他在今年的MRS大会上展示了他的研究成果。首先，研究市场的方法也许对于市场的成功就像一个好的引导，类似于使用针对性的昂贵的药品一般的有效。其次，在产品开发的早期阶段，研究市场可能成为一个有效清除较差的主意的途径。

But, there is a problem. As Kearon readily acknowledges, some of the most successful ideas for new products, such as Baileys Irish Cream and Phileas Fogg crisps, tested appallingly before they were launched. This raises the spectre of the new approach merely adding to the problem of promising innovations never making it to market because consumers dismiss them in research tests.
但是，存在一个问题。就像基容欣然承认的，一些关

于新产品的最成功的主意，就像“Baileys Irish Cream”和“Phileas Fogg crisps”，在他们正式推出之前的测试都是好的令人毛骨悚然的。这就提出了幽灵的新的方法只是添加了有前途但绝对不会推向市场的新观念的一系列问题，因为消费者在他们的研究性的测试中就已经拒绝了他们。

Kearon accepts this is a risk, but says it is perhaps limited to more radical forms of innovation. "Only very rarely do companies test ideas that are wholly new," he says, adding that most research is about "tweaking existing category ideas". For this sort of work, he suggests, research markets may offer results that are cheaper and faster than and at least as reliable as data generated by conventional methods.
基容接受了这是存在风险的，但是也说了这也许会限制更为激进的创新形式。“只有很少的公司的测试想法是全新的，”他说，他又补充道，大多数的研究都是关于“调整现有类别的想法”。对于这种类型的工作，他建议道，研究市场可能会提供比通过传统方法生成的数据更便宜和更快的，并且至少是同样可靠的结果。

FEELING WITHOUT TOUCHING?
不触碰的感觉？

The standard explanation of why innovation panels make blunders is that people simply cannot visualise how something new might fit into their lives until they have tried it. TNS European Access Panels joint managing director Martin Oxley claims that internet- based research can ameliorate the problem. "With three-dimensional simulations, we can show prototypes online," he says. As an example, Oxley cites a recent project in which a client wanted to test an idea for another household cleaning product.
创新小组会犯错误的标准解释是人们在尝试新事物之前，都不能设想一些新的事物可能会融入他们的生活。TNS欧洲访问小组联合总经理马丁·奥克斯利声称，以互联网为基础的研究可以改善这个问题。“有了三维的模拟，我们就可以在线的显示一些属性，”他说。作为一个例子，奥克斯利引用了一个最近的项目，在这个项目里，一个客户想要测试关于另一个家用清洁产品的想法。

Participants were shown an online prototype and then given two weeks to think about where and when they might use it. As the project involved an online discussion forum, the participants were able to exchange ideas and build upon each other's thoughts.
参与者被展示了一个在线的原型，然后给出了两个星期的时间来思考，思考他们可以在哪里在什么时候使用它。因为这个项目有一个在线的论坛，参与者能够在论坛上交换思路和借鉴彼此的想法。

Even so, visualising something new is not the same as holding it in your hands. As DDB London head of planning Lucy Jameson points out, "The problem is that you really cannot predict what will happen to a pr

oduct once people start to use it." As an example, she points to text-messaging, which was designed for businesspeople but turned out to have huge appeal for consumers.
即便如此，看见的一些新的东西并不是和把它握在手里时是一样的。做为DDB伦敦规划项目的负责人，露西·詹姆森指出，“问题是，当人们开始使用一个产品，你真的不能预测到将会发生什么。”作为一个例子，她指出，专为商人设计的短信却成为了对消费者的巨大吸引力。

So how can big ideas be tested? According to RSM Robson Rhodes Business Consulting head of research Tamsin Addison, one method towers above all the alternatives - getting an idea out of the design studio and piloting it in the market. "Once a product is in the market, it can be tweaked to find out what improves its appeal and what doesn't. Often, incredibly small changes can make an enormous difference," she explains.
那么想法应该如何进行测试？根据“RSM Robson Rhodes业务咨询”研究主管塔姆辛·爱迪森，一种高于所有替代品的方法——得到一个想法的设计工作室并且在市场上实现它。“一旦一个产品进入市场，它可以通过调整自身来找出什么可以提高吸引力，什么不能。通常，非常小的变化也可以造成很大的不同，”她解释道。

Kearon agrees, pointing out that Pret A Manger's upmarket sandwiches failed to impress Londoners until the company acquired better sites for its stores. "For Pret, location tipped the balance," he says.
Good research can stimulate marketers to think creatively about the future by highlighting needs that are unmet and opportunities that are opening up. But however well-informed they are, marketers cannot predict perfectly, still less control, what will happen in the outside world - because consumers will always rewrite the script.
基容同意她的这一观点，并且指出“Pret A Manger”的高档三明治，直到公司对它的店面采用了更好的位置，它才开始吸引伦敦人。“对于Pret来说，坐落的位置可以打破平衡，”他说。好的研究可以通过强调未满足的需求和开放的机会，来刺激市场去更积极地思考未来。然而，即使是消息灵通的他们，也不能完美地预测不受控制的外面世界将会发生什么，因为消费者总是会重写剧本。

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