A simple piecewise bidding strategy for hydropower plant in liberalized electricity market
Chapter 3 Principles of Pricing Forwards and Futures
Futures Price
Spot Price
Spot Price
Futures Price
Time
Time
a) The futures price higher than the spot price
b) The futures price lower than the spot price
2.1 The Futures Price at Expiration
现货溢价or期货溢价？
取决于空头套期保值数量多还是多头套期保
值数量多？ 前者多，就是现货溢价；后者多，就是期货 溢价。
2.3 The Value of A Futures Contract
The
value of a futures contract is less obvious. Under the marked to the marked procedure, the futures contract is priced on a daily basis.
1. The Concepts of Price VS Value
Price = Value ? In an efficient market, the price of an asset equals its true economic value. Present value（现值）is the value of the future cash flows, with the discount rate reflecting the opportunity cost of money and a premium for the risk assumed.
2. The value of a Futures contract
第9章_国际贸易术语
FOB.CFR和CIF的比较
价格构成不同, 卖方所承担的责任与费用不同。
国际贸易实务 第三章
相同点:
不同点:
1. 使用于内河及海洋运输 2. 交货在装运港 3. 风险转移界限:船上 4. 卖方办理出口手续，买方办理进口手续。 5. 均属于装运合同
（一）《1932年华沙—牛津规则》 1928年国际法协会在波兰首都华沙开会, 制定了关于CIF合同的统一规划, 叫《1928年华沙规则》, 共22条。后经1930年纽约会议、1931年巴黎会议和1932年牛津会议, 对规则作了修订, 共21条, 并更名为《1932年华沙—牛津规则》, 至今仍在沿用。这一规则对CIF合同的性质、买卖双方所承担的责任、风险、费用划分以及所有权转移的方式等问题都做了较详细的解释。
国际贸易实务 第三章
1.适用范围：各种运输方式
2．价格主要构成: 出口商品成本
四、FCA: FREE CARRIER货交承运人（…指定地点 named lace，交给买方指定的承运人等）
卖 方
买 方
责任
费 用
风 险
责任
费 用
风 险
A、提供符合合同规定的货物
货 物 交 给 承 运 人 之 前 的 一 切 费 用
国际贸易实务 第三章
分 析
CFR以装上船为风险划分点, 装上船前风险由卖方承担, B公司投保, 只有在风险转移至他时保险才开始生效, 所以A公司不会得到赔偿。
国际贸易实务 第三章
上面案例以FOB.CIF成交结果会如何？
国际贸易实务 第一章
第九章 国际贸易术语
第一节 国际贸易术语概述 一、国际贸易术语的含义 贸易术语又称贸易条件、价格术语，是指用一个外文短语或缩写来说明商品的价格构成以及买卖双方的有关费用、风险和责任的划分问题，它是国际货物买卖合同中单价条款的一个重要组成部分。
Handbook of economic finance(MIT Stephen A.Ross)
Arbitrage,State Prices and Portfolio Theory Handbook of the Economics of FinancePhilip Dybvig Washington University in Saint Louis Stephen A.RossMITFirst draft:September,2001 This draft:September19,2002AbstractNeoclassicalfinancial models provide the foundation for our understanding of finance.This chapter introduces the main ideas of neoclassicalfinance in a single-period context that avoids the technical difficulties of continuous-time models,but preserves the principal intuitions of the subject.The starting point of the analysis is the formulation of standard portfolio choice problems.A central conceptual result is the Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing,which asserts the equivalence of absence of arbitrage,the existence of a positive linear pricing rule,and the existence of an optimum for some agent who prefers more to less.A related conceptual result is the Pricing Rule Representation Theorem, which asserts that a positive linear pricing rule can be represented as using state prices,risk-neutral expectations,or a state-price density.Different equivalent rep-resentations are useful in different contexts.Many applied results can be derived from thefirst-order conditions of the portfolio choice problem.Thefirst-order conditions say that marginal utility in each state is proportional to a consistent state-price density,where the constant of proportion-ality is determined by the budget constaint.If markets are complete,the implicit state-price density is uniquely determined by investment opportunities and must be the same as viewed by all agents,thus simplifying the choice problem.Solv-ingfirst-order conditions for quantities gives us optimal portfolio choice,solving them for prices gives us asset pricing models,solving them for utilities gives us preferences,and solving them for for probabilities gives us beliefs.We look at two popular asset pricing models,the CAPM and the APT,as well as complete-markets pricing.In the case of the CAPM,thefirst-order conditions link nicely to the traditional measures of portfolio performance.Further conceptual results include aggregation and mutual fund separation theory, both of which are useful for understanding equilibrium and asset pricing.The modern quantitative approach tofinance has its original roots in neoclassicaleconomics.Neoclassical economics studies an idealized world in which marketswork smoothly without impediments such as transaction costs,taxes,asymme-try of information,or indivisibilities.This chapter considers what we learn fromsingle-period neoclassical models infinance.While dynamic models are becom-ing more and more common,single-period models contain a surprisingly largeamount of the intuition and intellectual content of modernfinance,and are alsocommonly used by investment practitioners for the construction of optimal port-folios and communication of investment results.Focusing on a single period isalso consistent with an important theme.While general equilibrium theory seeksgreat generality and abstraction,finance has work to be done and seeks specificmodels with strong assumptions and definite implications that can be tested andimplemented in practice.1Portfolio ProblemsIn our analysis,there are two points of time,0and1,with an interval of time inbetween during which nothing happens.At time zero,our champion(the agent)is making decisions that will affect the allocation of consumption between non-random consumption,c0,at time0,and random consumption cωacross statesω12Ωrevealed at time1.At time0and in each state at time1,there is a single consumption good,and therefore consumption at time0or in a state attime1is a real number.This abstraction of a single good is obviously not“true”in any literal sense,but this is not a problem,and indeed any useful theoreticalmodel is much simpler than reality.The abstraction does,however face us withthe question of how to interpret our simple model(in this case with a single good)in a practical context that is more complex(has multiple goods).In using a single-good model,there are two usual practices:either use nominal values and measureconsumption in dollars,or use real values and measure consumption in inflation-adjusted dollars.Depending on the context,one or the other can make the mostsense.In this article,we will normally think of the consumption units as beingthe numeraire,so that“cashflows”or“claims to consumption”have the samemeaning.Following the usual practice from general equilibrium theory of thinking of units2of consumption at various times and in different states of nature as different goods, a typical consumption vector is C c0c1cΩ,where the real number c0de-notes consumption of the single good at time zero,and the vector c c1cΩof real numbers c1cΩdenotes random consumption of the single good in each state1Ωat time1.If this were a typical exercise in general equilibrium theory,we would have a price vector for consumption across goods.For example,we might have the following choice problem,which is named after two great pioneers of general equilibrium theory,Kenneth Arrow and Gerard Debreu:Problem1Arrow-Debreu ProblemChoose consumptions C c0c1cΩtomaximize utility of consumption U C subject tothe budget constraintc0Ω∑ω1pωcωW(1)Here,U is the utility function that represents preferences,p is the price vector, and W is wealth,which might be replaced by the market value of an endowment. We are taking consumption at time0to be the numeraire,and pωis the price of the Arrow-Debreu security which is a claim to one unit of consumption at time1 in stateω.Thefirst-order condition for Problem1is the existence of a positive Lagrangian multiplierλ(the marginal utility of wealth)such that U0c0λ,and for allω1Ω,UωcωλpωThis is the usual result from neoclassical economics that the gradient of the util-ity function is proportional to prices.Specializing to the leading case infinance of time-separable von Neumann-Morgenstern preferences,named after John von Neumann and Oscar Morgenstern,two great pioneers of utility theory,we have that U C v c0∑Ωω1πωu cω.We will take v and u to be differentiable, strictly increasing(more is preferred to less),and strictly concave(risk averse).3Here,πωis the probability of stateω.In this case,thefirst-order condition is the existence ofλsuch that(2)v c0λand for allω12n,(3)πωu cωλpωor equivalently(4)u cωλρωwhereρωpωπωis the state-price density(also called the stochastic discount factor or pricing kernel),which is a measure of priced relative scarcity in state of natureω.Therefore,the marginal utility of consumption in a state is pro-portional to the relative scarcity.There is a solution if the problem is feasible, prices and probabilities are positive,the von Neumann-Morgenstern utility func-tion is increasing and strictly concave,and there is satisfied the Inada condition lim c∞u c0.1There are different motivations of von Neumann-Morgenstern preferences in the literature and the probabilities may be objective or subjective. What is important for us that the von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function rep-resents preferences in the sense that expected utility is higher for more preferred consumption patterns.2Using von Neumann-Morganstern preferences has been popular in part because of axiomatic derivations of the theory(see,for example,Herstein and Milnor [1953]or Luce and Raiffa[1957],chapter2).There is also a large literature on alternatives and extensions to von Neumann-Morgenstern preferences.Forsingle-period models,see Knight[1921],Bewley[1988],Machina[1982],Blume, Brandenburger,and Dekel[1991],and Fishburn[1988].There is an even richer set of models in multiple periods,for example,time-separable von Neumann-Morgenstern(the traditional standard),habit formation(e.g.Duesenberry[1949], Pollak[1970],Abel[1990],Constantinides[1991],and Dybvig[1995]),local substitutability over time(Hindy and Huang[1992]),interpersonal dependence (Duesenberry[1949]and Abel[1990]),preference for resolution of uncertainty (Kreps and Porteus[1978]),time preference dependent on consumption(Bergman [1985]),and general recursive utility(Epstein and Zin[1989]).Recently,there have also been some attempts to revive the age-old idea of study-ingfinancial situations using psychological theories(like prospect theory,Kahne-man and Tversky[1979]).Unfortunately,these models do not translate well to financial markets.For example,in prospect theory framing matters,that is,the observed phenomenon of an agent making different decisions when facing identi-cal decision problems described differently.However,this is an alien concept for financial economists and when they proxy for it in models they substitute some-thing more familiar(for example,some history dependence as in Barberis,Huang, and Santos[2001]).Another problem with the psychological theories is that they tend to be isolated stories rather than a general specification,and they are often hard to generalize.For example,prospect theory says that agents put extra weight on very unlikely outcomes,but it is not at all clear what this means in a model with a continuum of states.This literature also has problems with using ex post explanations(positive correlations of returns are underreaction and negative cor-relations are overreactions)and a lack of clarity of how much is going on that cannot be explained by traditional models(and much of it can).In actualfinancial markets,Arrow-Debreu securities do not trade directly,even if they can be constructed indirectly using a portfolio of securities.A security is characterized by its cashflows.This description would not be adequate for analysis of taxes,since different sources of cashflow might have very different tax treatment,but we are looking at models without taxes.For an asset like a common stock or a bond,the cashflow might be negative at time0,from payment of the price,and positive or zero in each state at time1,the positive amount coming from any repayment of principal,dividends,coupons,or proceeds from sale of the asset.For a futures contract,the cashflow would be0at time0,and the cashflow in different states at time1could be positive,negative,or zero, depending on news about the value of the underlying commodity.In general,we5think of the negative of the initial cashflow as the price of a security.We denote by P P1P N the vector of prices of the N securities1N,and we denote by X the payoff matrix.We have that P n is the price we pay for one unit of security n and Xωn is the payoff per unit of security n at time1in the single state of nature ω.With the choice of a portfolio of assets,our choice problem might becomeProblem2First Portfolio Choice ProblemChoose portfolio holdingsΘΘ1Θn and consumptions C c0cΩto maximize utility of consumption U C subject toportfolio payoffs c c1cωXΘandbudget constraint c0PΘW.Here,Θis the vector of portfolio weights.Time0consumption is the numeraire, and wealth W is now chosen in time0consumption units and the entire endow-ment is received at time0.In the budget constraint,the term PΘis the cost of the portfolio holding,which is the sum across securities n of the price P n times the number of shares or other unitΘn.The matrix product XΘsays that the consump-tion in stateωis cω∑n XωnΘn,i.e.the sum across securities n of the payoff Xωn of security n in stateω,times the number of shares or other unitsΘn of security n our champion is holding.Thefirst-order condition for Problem2is the existence of a vector of shadow prices p and a Lagrangian multiplierλsuch that(5)πωu cωλpωwhere(6)P pXThefirst equation is the same as in the Arrow-Debreu model,with an implicit shadow price vector in place of the given Arrow-Debreu prices.The second equa-tion is a pricing equation that says the prices of all assets must be consistent with6the shadow prices of the states.For the Arrow-Debreu model itself,the state-space tableau X is I,the identity matrix,and the price vector P is p,the vector of Arrow-Debreu state prices.For the Arrow-Debreu model,the pricing equation determines the shadow prices as equal to the state prices.Even if the assets are not the Arrow-Debreu securities,Problem2may be essen-tially equivalent to the Arrow-Debreu model in Problem1.In economic terms, the important feature of the Arrow-Debreu problem is that all payoff patterns are spanned,i.e.,each potential payoff pattern can be generated at some price by some portolio of assets.Linear algebra tells us that all payoff patterns can be generated if the payoff matrix X has full row rank.If X has full row rank,p is determined(or over-determined)by(6).If p is uniquely determined by the pricing equation(and therefore also all Arrow-Debreu assets can be purchased as portfolios of assets in the economy),we say that markets are complete,and for all practical purposes we are in an Arrow-Debreu world.For the choice problem to have a solution for any agent who prefers more to less, we also need for the price of each payoff pattern to be unique(the“law of one price”)and positive,or else there would be arbitrage(i.e.,a“money pump”or a “free lunch”).If there is no arbitrage,then there is at least one vector of positive state prices p solving the pricing equation(6).There is an arbitrage if the vector of state prices is overdetermined or if all consistent vectors of state prices assign a negative or zero price to some state.The notion of absence of arbitrage is a central concept infinance,and we develop its implications more fully in the section on preference-free results.So far,we have been stating portfolio problems in prices and quantities,as we would in general equilibrium theory.However,it is also common to describe assets in terms of rates of return,which are relative price changes(often expressed as percentages).The return to security n,which is the relative change in total value (including any dividends,splits,warrant issues,coupons,stock issues,and the like as well as change in the price).There is not an absolute standard of what is meant by return,in different contexts this can be the rate of rate of return,one plus the rate of return,or the difference between two rates of return.It is necessary to figure which is intended by asking or from ing the notation above,the rate of return in stateωis rωn=Xωn P n P n.3Often,consumption at the outsetis suppressed,and we specialize to von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility. In this case,we have the following common form of portfolio problem. Problem3Portfolio Problem using ReturnsChoose portfolio proportionsθθ1θn and consumptions c c1cΩtomaximize expected utility of consumption∑Ωω1πθu cωsubject tothe consumption equation c Wθ1r and the budget constraintθ11.Here,ππ1πΩis a vector of state probabilities,u is the von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function,and1is a vector of1’s.The dimensionality of1is determined implicitly from the context,here the dimensionality is the number of assets.Thefirst-order condition for an optimum is the existence of shadow state price density vectorρand shadow marginal utility of wealthλsuch that(7)u cωλρωand(8)1E1rρThese equations say that the state-price density is consistent with the marginal valuation by the agent and with pricing in the market.As ourfinal typical problem,let us consider a mean-variance optimization.This optimization is predicated on the assumption that investors care only about mean and variance(typically preferring more mean and less variance),so we have a utility function V m v in mean m and variance v.For this problem,suppose there is a risk-free asset paying a return r(although the market-level implications of mean-variance analysis can also be derived in a general model without a riskyasset).In this case,portfolio proportions in the risky assets are unconstrained (need not sum to1)because the slack can be taken up by the risk-free asset.We denote byµthe vector of mean risky asset returns and byσthe covariance matrix of risky returns.Then our champion solves the following choice problem. Problem4Mean-variance optimizationChoose portfolio proportionsθθ1θn tomaximize the mean-variance utility function V rµr1θθΣθ.Thefirst-order condition for the problem is(9)µr1λΣθwhereλis twice the marginal rate of substitution V v m v V m m v,evaluated at m rµr1θand vθΣθ,whereθis the optimal choice of portfolio pro-portions.Thefirst-order condition(9)says that mean excess return for each asset is proportional to the marginal contribution of volatility to the agent’s optimal portfolio.We have seen a few of the typical types of portfolio problem.There are a lot of variations.The problem might be stated in terms of excess returns(rate of return less a risk-free rate)or total return(one plus the rate of return).Or,we might constrain portfolio holdings to be positive(no short sales)or we might require consumption to be nonnegative(limited liability).Many other variations adapt the basic portfolio problem to handle institutional features not present in a neoclassical formulation,such as transaction costs,bid-ask spreads,or taxes. These extensions are very interesting,but beyond the scope of what we are doing here,which is to explore the neoclassical foundations.2Absence of Arbitrage and Preference-free ResultsBefore considering specific solutions and applications,let us consider some gen-eral results that are useful for thinking about portfolio choice.These results are9preference-free in the sense that they do not depend on any specific assumptions about preferences but only depend on an assumption that agents prefer more to less.Central to this section is the notion of an arbitrage,which is a“money pump”or a“free lunch”.If there is arbitrage,linearity of the neoclassical problem im-plies that any candidate optimum can be dominated by adding the arbitrage.As a result,no agent who prefers more to less would have an optimum if there ex-ists arbitrage.Furthermore,this seemingly weak assumption is enough to obtain two useful theorems.The Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing says that the following are equivalent:absence of arbitrage,existence of a consistent positive linear pricing rule,and existence of an optimum for some hypothetical agent who prefers more to less.The Pricing Rule Representation Theorem gives different equivalent forms for the consistent positive linear pricing rule,using state prices, risk-neutral probabilites(martingale valuation),state-price density(or stochastic discount factor or pricing kernel),or an abstract positive linear operator.The re-sults in this section are from Cox and Ross[1975],Ross[1976c,1978b],and Dybvig and Ross[1987].The results have been formalized in continuous time by Harrison and Kreps[1979]and Harrison and Pliska[1981].Occasionally,the theorems in this section can be applied directly to obtain an in-teresting result.For example,linearity of the pricing rule is enough to derive put-call parity without constructing the arbitrage.More often,the results in this sec-tion help to answer conceptual questions.For example,an option pricing formula that is derived using absence of arbitrage is always consistent with equilibrium, as can be seen from the Fundamental Theorem.By the Fundamental Theorem, absence of arbitrage implies there is an optimum for some hypothetical agent who prefers more to less;we can therefore construct an equilibrium in the single-agent pure exchange economy in which this agent is endowed with the optimal holding. By construction the equilibrium in this economy will have the desired pricing,and therefore any no-arbitrage pricing result is consistent with some equilibrium.In this section,we will work in the context of Problem2.An arbitrage is a change in the portfolio that makes all agents who prefer more to less better off.We make all such agents better off if we increase consumption sometime,and in some state of nature,and we never decrease consumption.By combining the two constraints in Problem2,we can write the consumption C associated with any portfolio choice10Θusing the stacked matrix equationC WPXΘThefirst row,W PΘ,is consumption at time0,which is wealth W less the cost of our portfolio.The remaining rows,XΘ,give the random consumption across states at time1.Now,when we move from the portfolio choiceΘto the portfolio choiceΘη, the initial wealth term cancels and the change in consumption can now be writtenas∆CPXηThis will be an arbitrage it∆C is never negative and is positive in at least one component,which we will write as4∆C0orPXη0Some authors describe taxonomies of different types of arbitrage,having perhaps a negative price today and zero payoff tomorrow,a zero price today and a non-negative but not identically zero payoff tomorrow,or a negative price today and a positive payoff tomorrow.These are all examples of arbitrages that are sub-sumed by our general formula.The important thing is that there is an increase in consumption in some state of nature at some point of time and there is never any decrease in consumption.Fundamental Theorem of Asset PricingTheorem1Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing The following conditions on prices P and payoffs X are equivalent:i Absence of arbitrage:ηP Xη0.ii Existence of a consistent positive linear pricing rule(positive state prices): p0P p X.iii Some agent with strictly increasing preferences U has an optimum in Prob-lem2.P ROOF We prove the equivalence by showing i ii,ii iii,and iii i.i ii:This is the most subtle part,and it follows from a separation theorem or the duality theorem from linear programming.From the definition of absence of arbitrage,we have that the setsS1PXηηℜnandS2xℜΩ1x0must be disjoint.Therefore,there is a separating hyperplane z such that z x0for all x S1and z x0for all x S2.(See...,theorem...)Normalizing so that the first component(the shadow price of time zero consumption)is1,we will see that p defined by1p z z0is the consistent linear pricing rule we seek.Constancy of zx for x S1implies that1p P X0,which is to say that P p X,i.e. p is a consistent linear pricing rule.Furthermore,z x positive for x S2implies z0and consequently p0,and p is indeed the desired consistent positive linear pricing rule.ii iii:This part is proven by construction.Let U C1p C,thenΘ0 solves Problem2.To see this,note that the objective function U C is constant and equal to W for allΘ:U C1p C1p WPXΘW P p XΘW12(The motivation this construction is observation that the existence of the consistent linear pricing rule with state prices p implies that all feasible consumptions satisfy 1p C W.)iii i:This part is obvious,since any candidate optimum is dominated by adding the arbitrage,and therefore there can be no arbitrage if there is an optimum. More formally,adding an arbitrage implies the change of consumption∆C0, which implies an increase in U C.Pricing Rule Representation TheoremDepending on the context,there are different useful ways of representing the pric-ing rule.For some abstract applications(like proving put-call parity),it is easiestto use a general abstract representation as a linear operator L c such that c0 L c0.For asset pricing applications,it is often useful to use either the thestate-price representation we used in the Fundamental Theorem,L c∑ωpωcω,or risk-neutral probabilities,L c1r1E cω1r1∑ωπωcω.The intuition behind the risk-neutral representation(or martingale representation5)is that the price is the expected discounted value computed using a shadow risk-free rate(equal to the actual risk-free rate if there is one)and artificial risk-neutral probabilitiesπthat assign positive probability to the same states as do the true probabilities.Risk-neutral pricing says that all investments are fair gambles once we have adjusted for time preference by discounting and for risk preference by adjusting the probabilities.Thefinal representation using the state-price density (or stochastic discount factor)ρto write L c Eρωcω∑ωπωρωcω.The state price density simplifiesfirst-order conditions of portfolio choice problems because the state-price density measures priced scarcity of consumption.The state-price density is also handy for continuous-state models in which individual states have zero state probabilities and state prices but there exists a well-defined positive ratio of the two.Theorem2Pricing Rule Representation Theorem The consistent positive lin-ear pricing rule can be represented equivalently usingi an abstract linear functional L c that is positive:c0L c0ii positive state prices p0:L c∑Ωω1pωcωiii positive risk-neutral probabilitiesπ0summing to1with associated shadow risk-free rate r:L c1r1E cω1r1∑ωπωcωiv positive state-price densitiesρ0:L c Eρc∑ωπωρωcω.P ROOF i ii:This is the known form of a linear operator inℜΩ.ii iii:Notefirst that the shadow risk-free rate must price the riskless asset c1:Ω∑ω1pω11r1E1which implies(since E11)that r1p1 1.Then,matching coefficients inΩ∑ω1pωcω1r1∑ωπωcωwe have thatπp1p,which sums to1as required and inherits positivity from p.iii iv:Simply letρω1r1πω(which is the same as pωπω).iv i:immediate.time s of receiving subsequent cashflows c s1,c s2...c t is given by t∑τs1E sρτ1r s1r s11rτ(11)Note that unless the riskfree rate is nonrandom,we cannot take the discount fac-tors out of the expectation.6This is because of the way that the law of iterated expectations works.For example,consider the value V0at time0of the cashflow in time2.V01r11E0V1(12)1r11E01r21E1c21r11E01r21c2Now,1r11is outside the expectation(as could be1r s11in(11)),but 1r21cannot come outside the expectation unless it is nonrandom.7So,it is best to remember that when interest rates are stochastic,discounting for risk-neutral valuation should use the rolled-over spot rate,within the expectation.3Various Analyses:Arrow-Debreu WorldThe portfolio problem is the starting point of a lot of types of analysis infinance. Here are some implications that can be drawn from portfolio problems(usually through thefirst-order conditions):optimal portfolio choice(asset allocation or stock selection)portfolio efficiencyaggregation and market-level implicationsasset pricing and performance measurementpayoff distribution pricingrecovery or estimation of preferencesinference of expectationsWe can think of many of these distinctions as a question of what we are solving for when we look at thefirst-order conditions.In optimal portfolio choice and its aggregation,we are solving for the portfolio choice given the preferences and be-liefs about returns.In asset pricing,we are computing the prices(or restrictions on expected returns)given preferences,beliefs about payoffs,and the optimal choice (which is itself often derived using an aggregation result).In recovery,we derive preferences from beliefs and idealized observations about portfolio choice,e.g.at all wealth levels.Estimation of preferences is similar,but works with noisy obser-vations of demand at afinite set of data points and uses a restriction in the func-tional form or smoothing in the statistical procedure to identify preferences.And, inference of expectations derives probability beliefs from preferences,prices,and the(observed)optimal demand.In this section,we illustrate the various analyses in the case of an Arrow-Debreu world.Analysis of the complete-markets model has been developed by many people over a period of time.Some of the more important works include some of the origi-nal work on competitive equilibrium such as Arrow and Debreu[1954],Debreu17。
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主干： the UK’s fisheries bill contains no such safeguard. 让步状语： the EU will introduce a legal commitment/ to prevent any fish species from being exploited /beyond its replacement rate next year, 参考译文： 相 反 ，尽 管 欧 盟 将 制 定 法 律 措 施 ，以 防 止 任 何 鱼 类 物 种 在 超 过 明 年 替 代 率 的 情 况 下 被 捕捞，但英国的渔业法案中却没有这样的保障措施。 所以今天的题目： 思考题一： The opportunity to do things better provided by the Brexit is not seized by the UK. 正确！ 用一般现在时代替现在进行时是可以的。 思考题二： UK’s fisheries bill does not frame the legal rule to prevent the overfishing. 正确！（好好体会替换！）
Business Negotiation Strategies
Business Negotiation Strategies (Abstract)(2011-03-31 09:27:50)转载▼标签：杂谈Business Negotiation StrategiesStrategies of Offer1. The price starting strategy1. The high-profile strategyThis strategy is also known as European offer. The basic approach is that the seller first proposed a price that leave large empty, compare both sides’ strength and the external competitive condition of the transaction, and then establish a common market and ultimately achieve the purpose of transactions by giving various incentives, such as quantity discounts, price discounts, commissions and payment concessions offered to gradually get close to the requirements of the buyer.2. The lower price strategyThis strategy is also called Japanese offer, which is to propose a lower price than actual requirements of one’s own starting point of negotiations at first, so as to attract others and try to defeat opponents of its kind first, and then have genuine negotiations with the real seller who is tempted to engage in, forcing them to compromise. This strategy is more suitable when mass contents in the transaction or whole sets of equipment transaction, or the opponen ts’ negotiations skills is weak and do not quite understand the market conditions.2. Price segmentation strategyThe strategy is a technique of price decomposition, the quantity of goods or the using time acting as divisor, and commodity prices as dividend, coming up with low price, so buyers felt cheap with a high price in the first place.3. The addition bidding strategyAddition bidding strategy is in business negotiations, sometimes high prices will scare away customers, the seller put the price down into several levels, and gradually raised to a number of quotations, and finally still equal to the price one-time high quoted.4. Differences quoteDifferences quote is adopting different strategies on account of the nature of customer business purchase amount, transaction time, different methods of payment, etc. This price difference reflects the market demand of commodity in trading and should be paid attention to use.5. Price ComparisonPrice Comparison refers to throw more price offers of the same commodity, which are beneficial to the buyer himself, to set up a price frame of reference, then compare the trading goods and similar products of these businesses in the performance, quality, service and other trading conditions to made more conducive to the side, and as the basis for the party asking price.Strategy of bargaining stage1. Strategy under the condition of advantage(1) No precedence strategyNo precedence Strategy is a tough s不开先例策略，是指握有优势的卖方坚持自己提出的交易条件，尤其是价格条件，而不愿让步的一种强硬策略。
2025年研究生考试考研英语(一201)试卷及答案指导
2025年研究生考试考研英语(一201)自测试卷及答案指导一、完型填空（10分）Section I: Cloze TestDirections: Read the following text carefully and choose the best answer from the four choices marked A, B, C, and D for each blank.Passage:In today’s rapidly evolving digital landscape, the role of social media has become increasingly significant. Social media platforms are not just tools for personal interaction; they also serve as powerful channels for business promotion and customer engagement. Companies are now leveraging these platforms to reach out to their target audience more effectively than ever before. However, the effectiveness of social media marketing (1)_on how well the company understands its audience and the specific platform being used. For instance, while Facebook may be suitable for reaching older demographics, Instagram is more popular among younger users. Therefore, it is crucial for businesses to tailor their content to fit the preferences and behaviors of the (2)_demographic they wish to target.Moreover, the rise of mobile devices has further transformed the way peopleconsume content online. The majority of social media users now access these platforms via smartphones, which means that companies must ensure that their content is optimized for mobile viewing. In addition, the speed at which information spreads on social media can be both a boon and a bane. On one hand, positive news about a brand can quickly go viral, leading to increased visibility and potentially higher sales. On the other hand, negative publicity can spread just as fast, potentially causing serious damage to a brand’s reputation. As such, it is imperative for companies to have a well-thought-out strategy for managing their online presence and responding to feedback in a timely and professional manner.In conclusion, social media offers unparalleled opportunities for businesses to connect with customers, but it requires careful planning and execution to (3)___the maximum benefits. By staying attuned to trends and continuously adapting their strategies, companies can harness the power of social media to foster growth and build strong relationships with their audiences.1.[A] relies [B] bases [C] stands [D] depends2.[A] particular [B] peculiar [C] special [D] unique3.[A] obtain [B] gain [C] achieve [D] accomplishAnswers:1.D - depends2.A - particular3.C - achieveThis cloze test is designed to assess comprehension and vocabulary skills, as well as the ability to infer the correct usage of words within the context of the passage. Each question is crafted to require understanding of the sentence structure and meaning to select the best option.二、传统阅读理解（本部分有4大题，每大题10分，共40分）第一题Passage:In the 1950s, the United States experienced a significant shift in the way people viewed education. This shift was largely due to the Cold War, which created a demand for a highly educated workforce. As a result, the number of students pursuing higher education in the U.S. began to grow rapidly.One of the most important developments during this period was the creation of the Master’s degree program. The Master’s degree was designed to provide students with advanced knowledge and skills in a specific field. This program became increasingly popular as more and more people realized the value of a higher education.The growth of the Master’s degree program had a profound impact on American society. It helped to create a more educated and skilled workforce, which in turn contributed to the nation’s economic growth. It also helped to improve the quality of life for many Americans by providing them with opportunities for career advancement and personal development.Today, the Master’s degree is still an important part of the American educational system. However, there are some challenges that need to be addressed. One of the biggest challenges is the rising cost of education. As the cost of tuition continues to rise, many students are unable to afford the cost of a Master’s degree. This is a problem that needs to be addressed if we are to continue to provide high-quality education to all Americans.1、What was the main reason for the shift in the way people viewed education in the 1950s?A. The demand for a highly educated workforce due to the Cold War.B. The desire to improve the quality of life for all Americans.C. The increasing cost of education.D. The creation of the Master’s degree program.2、What is the purpose of the Master’s degree program?A. To provide students with basic knowledge and skills in a specific field.B. To provide students with advanced knowledge and skills in a specific field.C. To provide students with job training.D. To provide students with a general education.3、How did the growth of the Master’s degree program impact American society?A. It helped to create a more educated and skilled workforce.B. It helped to improve the quality of life for many Americans.C. It caused the economy to decline.D. It increased the cost of education.4、What is one of the biggest challenges facing the Master’s deg ree program today?A. The demand for a highly educated workforce.B. The rising cost of education.C. The desire to improve the quality of life for all Americans.D. The creation of new educational programs.5、What is the author’s main point in the last pa ragraph?A. The Master’s degree program is still an important part of the American educational system.B. The cost of education needs to be addressed.C. The Master’s degree program is no longer relevant.D. The author is unsure about the future of the Master’s degree program.第二题Reading Comprehension (Traditional)Passage:The digital revolution has transformed the way we live, work, and communicate. With the advent of the internet and the proliferation of smart devices, information is more accessible than ever before. This transformation has had a profound impact on education, with online learning platforms providing unprecedented access to knowledge. However, this shift towards digital learningalso poses challenges, particularly in terms of ensuring equitable access and maintaining educational quality.While the benefits of digital learning are numerous, including flexibility, cost-effectiveness, and the ability to reach a wider audience, there are concerns about the potential for increased social isolation and the difficulty in replicating the dynamic, interactive environment of a traditional classroom. Moreover, not all students have equal access to the technology required for online learning, which can exacerbate existing inequalities. It’s crucial that as we embrace the opportunities presented by digital technologies, we also address these challenges to ensure that no student is left behind.Educators must adapt their teaching methods to take advantage of new tools while also being mindful of the need to foster a sense of community and support among students. By integrating both digital and traditional approaches, it’s possible to create a learning environment that leverages the strengths of each, ultimately enhancing the educational experience for all students.Questions:1、What is one of the main impacts of the digital revolution mentioned in the passage?•A) The reduction of social interactions•B) The increase in physical book sales•C) The transformation of communication methods•D) The decline of online learning platformsAnswer: C) The transformation of communication methods2、According to the passage, what is a challenge associated with digital learning?•A) The inability to provide any form of interaction•B) The potential to widen the gap between different socioeconomic groups •C) The lack of available content for online courses•D) The complete replacement of traditional classroomsAnswer: B) The potential to widen the gap between different socioeconomic groups3、Which of the following is NOT listed as a benefit of digital learning in the passage?•A) Cost-effectiveness•B) Flexibility•C) Increased social isolation•D) Wider reachAnswer: C) Increased social isolation4、The passage suggests that educators should do which of the following in response to the digital revolution?•A) Abandon all traditional teaching methods•B) Focus solely on improving students’ technical skills•C) Integrate digital and traditional teaching methods•D) Avoid using any digital tools in the classroomAnswer: C) Integrate digital and traditional teaching methods5、What is the author’s stance on the role of digital technologies ineducation?•A) They are unnecessary and should be avoided•B) They offer opportunities that should be embraced, but with caution •C) They are the only solution to current educational challenges•D) They have no real impact on the quality of educationAnswer: B) They offer opportunities that should be embraced, but with cautionThis reading comprehension exercise is designed to test your understanding of the text and your ability to identify key points and arguments within the passage.第三题Reading PassageWhen the French sociologist and philosopher Henri Lefebvre died in 1991, he left behind a body of work that has had a profound influence on the fields of sociology, philosophy, and cultural studies. Lefebvre’s theories focused on the relationship between space and society, particularly how space is produced, represented, and experienced. His work has been widely discussed and debated, with scholars and critics alike finding value in his insights.Lefebvre’s most famous work, “The Production of Space,” published in 1974, laid the foundation for his theoretical framework. In this book, he argues that space is not simply a container for human activities but rather an active agent in shaping social relationships and structures. Lefebvre introduces the concept of “three spaces” to describe the production of space: the perceived space,the lived space, and the representative space.1、According to Lefebvre, what is the primary focus of his theories?A. The development of urban planningB. The relationship between space and societyC. The history of architectural designD. The evolution of cultural practices2、What is the main argument presented in “The Production of Space”?A. Space is a passive entity that reflects social structures.B. Space is a fundamental building block of society.C. Space is an object that can be easily manipulated by humans.D. Space is irrelevant to the functioning of society.3、Lefebvre identifies three distinct spaces. Which of the following is NOT one of these spaces?A. Perceived spaceB. Lived spaceC. Representative spaceD. Economic space4、How does Lefebvre define the concept of “three spaces”?A. They are different types of architectural designs.B. They represent different stages of the production of space.C. They are different ways of perceiving and experiencing space.D. They are different social classes that occupy space.5、What is the significance of Lefebvre’s work in the fields of sociology and philosophy?A. It provides a new perspective on the role of space in social relationships.B. It offers a comprehensive guide to urban planning and development.C. It promotes the idea that space is an unimportant aspect of society.D. It focuses solely on the history of architectural movements.Answers:1、B2、B3、D4、C5、A第四题Reading Comprehension (Traditional)Read the following passage and answer the questions that follow. Choose the best answer from the options provided.Passage:In recent years, there has been a growing interest in the concept of “smart cities,” which are urban areas that u se different types of electronic data collection sensors to supply information which is used to manage assets and resources efficiently. This includes data collected from citizens, devices, andassets that is processed and analyzed to monitor and manage traffic and transportation systems, power plants, water supply networks, waste management, law enforcement, information systems, schools, libraries, hospitals, and other community services. The goal of building a smart city is to improve quality of life by using technology to enhance the performance and interactivity of urban services, to reduce costs and resource consumption, and to increase contact between citizens and government. Smart city applications are developed to address urban challenges such as environmental sustainability, mobility, and economic development.Critics argue, however, that while the idea of a smart city is appealing, it raises significant concerns about privacy and security. As more and more aspects of daily life become digitized, the amount of personal data being collected also increases, leading to potential misuse or unauthorized access. Moreover, the reliance on technology for critical infrastructure can create vulnerabilities if not properly secured against cyber-attacks. There is also a risk of widening the digital divide, as those without access to the necessary technologies may be left behind, further exacerbating social inequalities.Despite these concerns, many governments around the world are moving forward with plans to develop smart cities, seeing them as a key component of their future strategies. They believe that the benefits of improved efficiency and service delivery will outweigh the potential risks, provided that adequate safeguards are put in place to protect citizen s’ data and ensure the resilience of thecity’s technological framework.Questions:1、What is the primary purpose of developing a smart city?•A) To collect as much data as possible•B) To improve the quality of life through efficient use of technology •C) To replace all traditional forms of communication•D) To eliminate the need for human interaction in urban services2、According to the passage, what is one of the main concerns raised by critics regarding smart cities?•A) The lack of available technology•B) The high cost of implementing smart city solutions•C) Privacy and security issues related to data collection•D) The inability to provide essential services3、Which of the following is NOT mentioned as an area where smart city technology could be applied?•A) Traffic and transportation systems•B) Waste management•C) Educational institutions•D) Agricultural production4、How do some governments view the development of smart cities despite the criticisms?•A) As a risky endeavor that should be avoided•B) As a temporary trend that will soon pass•C) As a strategic move with long-term benefits•D) As an unnecessary investment in technology5、What does the term “digital divide” refer to in the context of smart cities?•A) The gap between the amount of data collected and the amount of data analyzed•B) The difference in technological advancement between urban and rural areas•C) The disparity in access to technology and its impact on social inequality•D) The separation of digital and non-digital methods of service delivery Answers:1、B) To improve the quality of life through efficient use of technology2、C) Privacy and security issues related to data collection3、D) Agricultural production4、C) As a strategic move with long-term benefits5、C) The disparity in access to technology and its impact on social inequality三、阅读理解新题型（10分）Reading Comprehension (New Type)Passage:The rise of e-commerce has transformed the way people shop and has had aprofound impact on traditional brick-and-mortar retailers. Online shopping offers convenience, a wide range of products, and competitive prices. However, it has also raised concerns about the future of physical stores. This passage examines the challenges and opportunities facing traditional retailers in the age of e-commerce.In recent years, the popularity of e-commerce has soared, thanks to advancements in technology and changing consumer behavior. According to a report by Statista, global e-commerce sales reached nearly$4.2 trillion in 2020. This upward trend is expected to continue, with projections showing that online sales will account for 25% of total retail sales by 2025. As a result, traditional retailers are facing fierce competition and must adapt to the digital landscape.One of the main challenges for brick-and-mortar retailers is the shift in consumer preferences. Many shoppers now prefer the convenience of online shopping, which allows them to compare prices, read reviews, and purchase products from the comfort of their homes. This has led to a decrease in foot traffic in physical stores, causing many retailers to struggle to attract customers. Additionally, the ability to offer a wide range of products at competitive prices has become a hallmark of e-commerce, making it difficult for traditional retailers to compete.Despite these challenges, there are opportunities for traditional retailers to thrive in the age of e-commerce. One approach is to leverage the unique strengths of physical stores, such as the ability to provide an immersiveshopping experience and personalized customer service. Retailers can also use technology to enhance the in-store experience, such as implementing augmented reality (AR) to allow customers to visualize products in their own homes before purchasing.Another strategy is to embrace the digital world and create a seamless shopping experience that integrates online and offline channels. For example, retailers can offer online returns to brick-and-mortar stores, allowing customers to shop online and return items in person. This not only provides convenience but also encourages customers to make additional purchases while they are in the store.Furthermore, traditional retailers can leverage their established brand loyalty and customer base to create a competitive advantage. By focusing on niche markets and offering unique products or services, retailers can differentiate themselves from e-commerce giants. Additionally, retailers can invest in marketing and promotions to drive traffic to their physical stores, even as more consumers turn to online shopping.In conclusion, the rise of e-commerce has presented traditional retailers with significant challenges. However, by embracing the digital landscape, leveraging their unique strengths, and focusing on customer satisfaction, traditional retailers can adapt and thrive in the age of e-commerce.Questions:1.What is the main concern raised about traditional retailers in the age of e-commerce?2.According to the passage, what is one of the main reasons for the decline in foot traffic in physical stores?3.How can traditional retailers leverage technology to enhance the in-store experience?4.What strategy is mentioned in the passage that involves integrating online and offline channels?5.How can traditional retailers create a competitive advantage in the age of e-commerce?Answers:1.The main concern is the fierce competition from e-commerce and the shift in consumer preferences towards online shopping.2.The main reason is the convenience and competitive prices offered by e-commerce, which make it difficult for traditional retailers to compete.3.Traditional retailers can leverage technology by implementing augmented reality (AR) and offering online returns to brick-and-mortar stores.4.The strategy mentioned is to create a seamless shopping experience that integrates online and offline channels, such as offering online returns to brick-and-mortar stores.5.Traditional retailers can create a competitive advantage by focusing on niche markets, offering unique products or services, and investing in marketing and promotions to drive traffic to their physical stores.四、翻译（本大题有5小题，每小题2分，共10分）First QuestionTranslate the following sentence into Chinese. Write your translation on the ANSWER SHEET.Original Sentence:“Although technology has brought about nume rous conveniences in our daily lives, it is also true that it has led to significant privacy concerns, especially with the rapid development of digital communication tools.”Answer:尽管技术在我们的日常生活中带来了诸多便利，但也不可否认它导致了重大的隐私问题，尤其是在数字通信工具快速发展的情况下。
Unit Two
Closing
the deal:
prepare an offer iron out details such as a starting date and benefits conduct drug testing and background tests.
New-hire
外贸英才网
为外贸企业提 供高级人才猎头服务 德卡猎头 猎头机构 中国高 级人力资本搜寻 中国猎头联盟网 提供猎头 、员工职业生涯规划、人才 测评 世界经理人群英会 经理人 和专业人才招聘平台，提供 人力资源资讯、HR动态 人行道猎头人行道 猎头从 事高级猎头、管理咨询、企 业内训等服务 中国猎头网
4) In order to find out whether a candidate is a good match or not, what does the speaker say they do?
They do exhaustive interviews. In the first round of interviews, they will have at least three days of interviews with a wide variety of people, which focus tasks of interviewing on the leadership side, interviewing on the technical side, and interviewing on the commitment side. In the second round of interviews, they will go back and revisit those potential problems that they discover after their group discussions about the candidates.
定价竞争策略英文
Ito (1951) provides a formula – Ito’s lemma for calculating explicitly the stochastic differential equation that governs the dynamics of f(P,t):
df(P,t) = f/P dP + f/t dt + ½ 2f/P2 (dP)2
• Applications in Finance
A lognormal distribution for stock price returns is the standard model used in financial economics. Given some reasonable assumptions about the random behavior of stock returns, a lognormal distribution is implied. These assumptions will characterize lognomal distribution in a very intuitive manner.
• The discrete-time random
walk
Pk = Pk-1 + k, k = (-) with probability (1), P0 is fixed. Consider the following continuous time process Pn(t), t [0, T], which is constructed from the discrete time process Pk, k=1,..n as follows: Let h=T/n and define the process
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I.
INTRODUCTION
In this paper, the short-term bidding strategy problem of a hydropower plant in a pool-based spot electricity market is considered. It is assumed that the next-day hourly prices are with high uncertainty and however forecasted by an appropriate tool. Their probability density function can also be estimated [1-2]. For its flexibility, hydropower is used to undertaking the peak load to preserve uninterrupted generation produced by thermal power plants. In China, hydropower does not directly participate in liberalised electricity market but probably as an ancillary energy. Referred to the worldwide liberalization reform in power system, the hydropower will completely participate in the electricity market [3-4]. In a competitive environment, hydropower producer will face the challenge of selling electricity to market in the current period or later. Particularly, for each reservoir in the system, the short-term dispatch model is bounded by an endpoint storage description or water consumption from the long-term scheduling program, which is very different from the thermal plant. Substantial studies work on the optimal self-scheduling problem for hydropower in vertical monopoly market, Dynamic programming, successive approximation method and other successful methods including heuristic methods are used to solve the problems. In new competitive environment, new models are established to consider the price and its uncertainty. The main idea is to deal the forecasted price as a coefficient of the electricity [5-6]. The earlier useful theories struggle for developing.
A Simple Piecewise Bidding Strategy for Hydropower Plant in Liberalised Electricity Market
Li He
School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Hubei University of Technology, Wuhan, China @ Dong Chen School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University Beijing, China chend2.08@ Hui Li Three Gorges Cascade dispatch & Communication center, Yangtze Power Co., Ltd. Chengdu, China lihui@
Electricity trade has commodity properties. Some researchers use some useful economics theory such as pricing theory, risk management and investment portfolio to price optimally and manage risk in liberalised electricity market. Puller and Steven L. apply the pricing model based on oligopoly theory to capture and analyze the pricing behavior of electricity generating firms in the restructured California market [7]. In view of the opposite condition of the expected incoming and the risk, the utility function is presented in various deformations [8-9]. [10] generates the prices scenarios by an Input/Output Hidden Markov Model and introduces two different risk-aversion criteria in the optimization model: a minimum profit constraint and a minimum conditional Value-at-Risk requirement to protect against low prices scenarios. The next-day hourly prices can be forecasted by an appropriate tool. When its probability density function can be estimated, the model of maximum expectation of benefits is established and decision can be analyzed [11]. However, the market operates under price uncertainty and the fluctuation can not be forecasted exactly. It will be a problem to hydropower producer. Supposed that the forecasted price of certain hour is higher, even extremely tenuous, than the actual price, the producer will lose chance in competitive market for bidding failure at this hour. Since the reservoir storage capacity available is somewhat limited, reservoir may operate ineffectively in later periods, even abandons water. It may cause electricity loss. Simply strategy is to reduce price, it is helpful but not rational for the long run. From this respect, hydropower participant will be more at risk than thermal. The piecewise bidding method is meaningful, and it is popular in liberalised electricity market all around the world. As for the thermal, the piecewise bidding strategy can exact from the cost curve. The cost of hydropower is the water which comes from the nature and is approximately zero. Opportunity cost of hydropower is normally discussed. Inspired by [12], which presents an implementation method of piecewise bidding strategy, this paper derived the mathematical expression of the optimal relationship between price and electricity quantity considering of water consumption constraint, and a simply optimal piecewise bidding strategy using the three-sigma rule is used to deal with the uncertainty of forecasted price.