Chapter 7Demand Forecastingin a Supply Chain
乔普拉《供应链管理(第7版英文版)》教学课件CH7
Five Important Points in the Forecasting Process
1. Understand the objective of forecasting. 2. Integrate demand planning and forecasting throughout
the supply chain. 3. Identify the major factors that influence the demand
– Production scheduling, inventory, aggregate planning – Sales force allocation, promotions, new production
introduction – Plant/equipment investment, budgetary planning – Workforce planning, hiring, layoffs • All of these decisions are interrelated
Learning Objectives
7.1 Understand the role of forecasting for both an enterprise and a supply chain. 7.2 Identify the components of a demand forecast and some basic approaches to forecasting. 7.3 Forecast demand using time-series methodologies given historical demand data in a supply chain. 7.4 Analyze demand forecasts to estimate forecast error. 7.5 Use Excel to build time-series forecasting models.
外文翻译--- 供应链管理下的库存控制
外文翻译--- 供应链管理下的库存控制在供应链管理环境下，库存控制仍然存在一些问题，需要企业及时解决。
主要问题包括以下几个方面：1.信息不对称在供应链中，不同企业之间的信息不对称问题比较严重，导致企业难以准确预测市场需求，从而影响库存控制的效果。
2.订单不稳定供应链中的订单不稳定性也是影响库存控制的重要因素之一。
订单不稳定会导致企业难以确定库存水平，从而影响供应链整体绩效。
3.物流配送问题物流配送问题也是影响库存控制的重要因素之一。
物流配送不畅会导致库存积压，增加企业的库存成本。
4.缺乏协调供应链中各个企业之间缺乏协调也是影响库存控制的重要因素之一。
缺乏协调会导致企业之间的库存信息不同步，从而影响供应链整体绩效。
为了解决这些问题，企业需要采取一系列措施，如加强信息共享、优化订单管理、完善物流配送体系、建立协调机制等，以提高供应链整体绩效和库存控制的效果。
尽管从宏观角度来看，供应链管理环境下的库存控制比传统管理更具优势，但实际操作中，由于每个企业对供应链管理的理解存在差异，存在利益冲突等问题，导致实际运用时也会出现许多问题。
其中，主要存在以下几个方面的问题：1.各企业缺乏供应链管理的整体观念，导致各自为政的行为降低了供应链整体效率。
2.交货状态数据不准确，导致客户不满和供应链中某些企业增加库存量。
3.信息传递系统低效率，导致延迟和不准确的信息，影响库存量的精确度和短期生产计划的实施。
4.缺乏合作与协调性，组织障碍是库存增加的一个重要因素。
5.产品的过程设计没有考虑供应链上库存的影响，导致成本效益被库存成本抵消，引进新产品时也会遇到问题。
因此，在供应链管理环境下，需要制定合适的库存控制策略，包括建立整体观念，提高信息传递效率，加强合作与协调性，考虑库存影响的产品设计等措施，以提高供应链整体效率。
针对库存管理问题，我们推出以下策略：1.供应商管理库存策略：VMI（Vendor Managed Inventory）库存管理模式。
物流需求预测英语
物流需求预测英语Logistics Demand ForecastingThe modern business landscape is characterized by a constant flux of supply and demand, making accurate logistics demand forecasting a critical component of successful operations. Effective logistics planning not only ensures the timely and efficient delivery of goods but also helps organizations optimize their resource allocation, minimize costs, and enhance overall competitiveness.Accurate demand forecasting is essential in the logistics industry, as it enables companies to anticipate and prepare for fluctuations in customer needs. By leveraging historical data, market trends, and advanced analytical techniques, logistics professionals can develop reliable forecasts that inform strategic decision-making. This, in turn, allows organizations to align their transportation, warehousing, and inventory management strategies with anticipated demand, leading to improved customer satisfaction and increased profitability.One of the primary challenges in logistics demand forecasting is the inherent complexity and dynamism of the supply chain. Factors such as seasonality, economic conditions, competitor actions, andtechnological advancements can all significantly impact the demand for logistics services. Consequently, logistics professionals must adopt a multifaceted approach to demand forecasting, incorporating a range of data sources and analytical methods to capture these nuances and generate accurate predictions.The process of logistics demand forecasting typically involves several key steps. First, organizations must gather and analyze historical data on past demand patterns, including order volumes, delivery times, and customer behavior. This information provides a foundation for understanding the underlying trends and seasonality that influence logistics requirements.Next, logistics professionals must consider external market factors that may influence future demand. This includes monitoring economic indicators, industry trends, and competitor activities, as well as staying informed about regulatory changes and technological advancements that could impact the logistics landscape. By incorporating these external factors into the forecasting model, organizations can better anticipate and respond to potential shifts in demand.Advanced analytical techniques, such as statistical modeling, machine learning, and predictive analytics, play a crucial role in logistics demand forecasting. These tools enable logisticsprofessionals to identify complex patterns, detect anomalies, and generate accurate predictions based on a comprehensive analysis of both internal and external data. By leveraging these cutting-edge technologies, organizations can enhance the precision and reliability of their demand forecasts, allowing them to make informed decisions and optimize their logistics operations accordingly.Effective communication and collaboration within the organization are also essential for successful logistics demand forecasting. Logistics teams must work closely with other departments, such as sales, marketing, and finance, to ensure a holistic understanding of the factors influencing demand. This cross-functional approach allows for the integration of diverse perspectives and the development of a more comprehensive forecasting model.Moreover, logistics demand forecasting is an iterative process that requires continuous monitoring and adjustment. As market conditions and customer preferences evolve, organizations must regularly review and refine their forecasting models to maintain their accuracy and relevance. This agility and responsiveness are critical in the fast-paced and ever-changing logistics industry.In conclusion, logistics demand forecasting is a vital component of effective supply chain management. By leveraging data-driven insights, advanced analytical tools, and cross-functional collaboration,logistics professionals can develop accurate and reliable forecasts that enable organizations to optimize their operations, enhance customer satisfaction, and maintain a competitive edge in the market. As the logistics industry continues to evolve, the importance of robust demand forecasting will only continue to grow, making it a crucial skill for logistics professionals to master.。
江恩期货教程-中英文
江恩期货教程Gann Master Commodities Course 江恩生平及简历江恩(1878-1955)：于1878年6月6日出生于美国德克萨斯州的路芙根市（Lufkin Texas)，父母是爱尔兰裔移民。
少年时代的江恩在火车上卖报纸和送电报，还贩卖明信片、食品、小饰物等。
江恩被世人所津津乐道的辉煌事亦是1909年他在25个交易里赚了10倍！这一年再婚的江恩接受当时著名的《股票行情与投资文摘》杂志访问。
在杂志编辑的监督下，江恩在25个交易日里进行286次交易，其中264次获利，其余22次亏损，胜算高达92．3%。
而资本则增值了10倍。
平均交易间隔是20分钟。
在华尔街投机生涯中，江恩大约赚取了5000万美元的利润。
在今天，相当于5亿美元以上的数量。
虽然和其他的一些投资大师相比，他的财富数量并不算什么，但是我认为最重要的是他靠自己的新发现去赚取他应得的财富。
1902年，江恩在24岁时，第一次入市买卖棉花期货。
1906年，江恩到奥克拉荷马当经纪，既为自己炒，亦管理客户。
在1908年，江恩30岁时，他移居纽约，成立了自己的经纪业务。
同年8月8日，发展了他最重要的市场趋势预测方法，名为“控制时间因素” 。
经过多次准确预测后，江恩声名大噪。
最为人瞩目的是1909年10月美国“The Ticketr and Investment Digest”杂志编辑Richard .Wyckoff的一次实地访问。
在杂志人员的监察下，江恩在十月份的二十五个市场交易日中共进行286次买卖，结果，264获利，22次损失，获利率竟达92.3%。
据江恩一位朋友基利的回述：“1909年夏季，江恩预测9月小麦期权将会见1.20美元。
可是，到9月30日芝加哥时间十二时，该期权仍然在1.08美元之下徘徊，江恩的预测眼看落空。
江恩说：…如果今日收市时不见1.20美元，将表示我整套分析方法都有错误。
不管现在是什么价，小麦一定要见1.20美元。
墨菲物流学英文版第12版课后习题答案第7章
PART IIANSWERS TO END-OF-CHAPTER QUESTIONSCHAPTER 7: DEMAND MANAGEMENT, ORDER MANAGEMENT, AND CUSTOMER SERVICE7-1. What is the relationship between demand management, order management, and customer service?There is a key link between order management and demand forecasting in that a firm does not simply wait for orders to arrive in order to learn what is happening. Forecasts are made of sales and of the inventories that must be stocked so that the firm can fill orders in a satisfactory manner. There is also a key link between order management and customer service because many organizations analyze customer service standards in terms of the four stages of the order cycle.7-2. Discuss the three basic demand forecasting models.Judgmental forecasting involves using judgment or intuition and is preferred in situations where there is limited or no historical data, such as with a new product introduction. Judgmental forecasting techniques include surveys and the analog technique. An underlying assumption of time-series forecasting is that future demand is solely dependent on past demand. Time-series forecasting techniques include simple moving averages and weighted moving averages. Cause and effect forecasting assumes that one or more factors are related to demand and that the relationship between cause and effect can be used to estimate future demand. Simple regression and multiple regression are examples of cause and effect forecasting.7-3. Discuss several demand forecasting issues.Demand forecasting issues include the situation at hand, forecasting costs in terms of time and money, and the accuracy of various forecasting techniques. With respect to the situation at hand, judgmental forecasting is appropriate when there is little or no historical data. As for time and money, survey research, for example, can cost a great deal of money and/or take a great deal of time depending on the media. Forecasting accuracy refers to the relationship between actual and forecasted demand. Accurate forecasts have allowed some companies to reduce finished goods inventory; one company, for example, had to carry nearly twice as much inventory as actually needed because of inaccurate demand forecasts.7-4. Define and describe the order cycle. Why is it considered an important aspect of customer service?The order cycle is the elapsed time from when a customer places an order until the customer receives the order. It is an important aspect of customer service in part because the order cycle is frequently used to determine the parameters of customer service goals and objectives. The order cycle is also being used by some firms as a competitive weapon (generally, the shorter the better), and technological advances now make it extremely easy (and fast) for customers to determine the exact status of their order(s).7-5. What are some causes of order cycle variability? What are the consequences of order cycle variability?Order cycle variability can occur in each stage of the order cycle. For example, order transmittal by mail sometimes results in the mailed item never reaching its intended destination; variability, in the form of unreliable transit times, can occur during order delivery. One consequence of order cycle variability might be an increase in inventory levels to guard against stockouts. If inventory levels are not increased, then stockouts could occur because of order cycle variability, or a company might be forced to use expedited transportation to make sure orders arrive on time.7-6. List the various methods of order transmittal and discuss relevant characteristics of each.•In person greatly reduces the potential for order errors, but it is not always convenient or practical in situations where the supplier is geographically distant.•Mail is more convenient than ordering in person, but mail is relatively slow and there are occasions when the order never reaches the intended destination.•Telephone is fast and convenient, but order errors may not be detected until the order is delivered.•Fax is fast, convenient, and provides hard copy documentation of an order.However, there is the potential for junk (unwanted) faxes, and the quality oftransmission may be problematic.•Electronic is fast, convenient, and potentially very accurate; the major concern is the security of the data being transmitted.7-7. What are some advantages and disadvantages to checking all orders for completeness and accuracy?It can be argued that all orders, regardless of transmission method, should be checked for completeness and accuracy. Incomplete or inaccurate orders can negatively affect customer satisfaction and increase costs in the sense of addressing order irregularities. However, checking all orders for completeness and accuracy adds costs and time to the order cycle.7-8. Define order triage and explain how it can affect order processing.Order triage refers to classifying orders according to pre-established guidelines so that a company can prioritize how orders should be filled. Companies that choose to do order triage must decide the attribute(s) used to prioritize (e.g., first in, first served; customer longevity). Although there is no one right attribute to use for order prioritization, the chosen attributes are likely to delight some customers and disappoint other customers.7-9. Discuss how the effectiveness and efficiency of order processing can be improved without large expenditures.One suggestion is to analyze order pickers’ travel time, in part because travel time accounts for between 60 and 80 percent of total pick time. One way to reduce travel time involves combining several orders into one larger order so that the order picker can make one pick trip rather than several pick trips. Another low-cost suggestion for improving the effectiveness and efficiency of the pick process is to match the picker to the order being picked. For example, an order consisting of fragile items might be assigned to a picker who exhibits a low percentage of damaged picks.7-10. What is pick-to-light technology, and how can it improve order picking?In pick-to-light technology, orders to be picked are identified by lights placed on shelves or racks. Pick-to-light systems simplify the pick process because the worker simply follows the light from pick to pick, as opposed to the worker having to figure out an optimal picking path. Pick-to-light can yield impressive operational improvements with respect to faster picking of orders and improved order accuracy.7-11. Discuss the order delivery stage of the order cycle.Order delivery refers to the time from when a transportation carrier picks up a shipment until it is received by the carrier. Customers now have increasing power in terms of delivery options, and companies such as UPS and FedEx offer prospective shippers a diverse menu of transit time options. In addition, shippers are emphasizing both elapsed transit time and transit time variability, and some companies are utilizing delivery windows, or the time span within which an order must arrive. Another key delivery change is that the overnight range for truck service has been pushed from 500 miles to between 600 and 700 miles.7-12. How can customer service act as a competitive weapon?Customer service is more difficult for competitors to imitate than other marketing mix variables such as price and promotion. The text cites an example of Nordstrom’s, a high-end retailer that has a long-standing reputation for excellent customer service. Their devotion to excellent customer service leads Nordstrom’s to do things that competitors cannot or will not match.7-13. How are macroenvironmental factors causing organizations and individuals to demand higher levels of customer service?Macroenvironmental changes, such as globalization and advances in technology, are causing organizations and individuals to demand higher levels of customer service. Customer expectations continue to increase over time; if the associated performance (service) levels fail to keep up, then customer dissatisfaction is a likely outcome. In addition, reliable service enables a firm to maintain a lower level of inventory, especially safety stocks, which provides lower inventory holding costs. Finally, the relationships between customers and vendors can become dehumanized and the ability to offer a high level of service, especially on a personal basis, could be quite valuable.7-14. List and discuss the three elements of the dependability dimension of customer service.The three elements are consistent order cycles, safe delivery, and complete delivery. Quite simply, inconsistent order cycles necessitate higher inventory requirements. Safe delivery brings loss and damage considerations into play; a lost or damaged product can cause a variety of negative ramifications for a customer, such as an out-of-stock situation. One way of measuring the completeness of delivery involves the order fill rate or the percentage of orders that can be completely and immediately filled from existing stock; incomplete deliveries generally translate into unhappy customers.7-15. What are some advantages and disadvantages of technological advances designed to facilitate buyer–seller communications?Cell phones, smart phones, and the Internet have certainly helped buyer–seller communications. These technological advances allow for less costly and more frequent contact between the two parties. Having said this, technology such as text messaging and the Internet can depersonalize the communication process, which is why periodic telephone interaction and even face-to-face contact between seller and customer are recommended.7-16. What is customer profitability analysis and how might it be used in logistics? Customer profitability analysis (CPA) refers to the allocation of revenues and costs to customer segments or individual customers to calculate the profitability of the segments or customers. From a resource allocation perspective, an organization should pursue different logistical approaches for different customer groups. With respect to product availability, organizations might provide a substantial volume of product offerings for their best customers, while limiting product selection among less desirable customers.7-17. Define and explain how organizations might engage in benchmarking.Benchmarking refers to a process that continuously identifies, understands, and adapts outstanding processes found inside and outside an organization. Well-run organizations benchmark not only against competitors (where possible) but also against best-in-class organizations. For maximum results, organizations should engage in performance benchmarking, which compares quantitative performance (e.g., fill rate performance), as well as process benchmarking, which is qualitative in nature and compares specific processes (e.g., how organizations achieve their fill rates).7-18. How do characteristics such as substitutability and product life cycle stage influence the development of customer service goals and objectives?If a firm has a near monopoly on an important product (i.e., few substitutes are available), a high level of customer service is not required because a customer who needs the product will buy it under any reasonable customer service standard. As for stage in the PLC, a product just being introduced needs a different kind of service support than one that is in a mature or declining market stage. When introducing a new product, companies want to make sure that there is sufficient supply of it to meet potential customer demand, and so companies might use expedited transportation to protect against out-of-stock situations.7-19. Describe some of the key issues associated with measuring customer service.Ideally, an organization might want to collect measurement data from internal (e.g., credit memos) and external sources (e.g., actual customers). Another key issue associated with customer service measurement is determining what factors to measure. In addition, the metrics that are chosen to measure customer service should be relevant and important from the customer’s—and not the service provider’s—perspective.7-20. What is meant by service recovery? How is it relevant to logistics?Service recovery refers to a process for returning a customer to a state of satisfaction after a service or product has failed to live up to expectations. Service failure, the precursor to service recovery, is particularly relevant to the order cycle. Examples of order-related service failures include lost delivery, late delivery, early delivery, damage delivery, and incorrect delivery quantity.PART IIICASE SOLUTIONSCASE 7-1: HANDY ANDY, INC.Question 1: Is this a customer service problem? Why or why not?The text defines customer service as the ability of logistics management to satisfy users in terms of time, dependability, communication, and convenience. While there doesn’t appear to be much of a customer service problem with the product itself (i.e., the compactors seem to perform well), there do seem to be some problems with respect to product-related attributes such as installation and post-sale support, particularly on the part of the licensed retailers. More specifically, the licensed retailers regularly missed delivery windows, which falls into the dependability area of customer service. In addition, some installation personnel didn’t do a very good job of communicating with certain customers.Question 2: It appears that the factory distributors are exploiting the licensed retailers. Yet from what we can tell, Handy Andy in St. Louis has heard no complaints from the licensed retailers. Why would n’t they complain?The smaller dealers might not complain because they are so dependent on the factory distributors for product. Complaining about factory distributors might result in some distributors “punishing” the complaining dealers, perhaps by being slow to process orders, slow to pick and ship orders, and slow to deliver orders.Question 3: What should Han dy Andy’s marketing vice president do? Why?Bixby is faced with multiple issues, namely, distributors exploiting licensed retailers as well as inconsistent performance by the licensed retailers. Can both issues be addressed simultaneously? If not, then Bixby needs to decide which issue to address first. Because organizations can’t exist without customers, it can be argued that Bixby should first work on the inconsistent performance by the licensed retailers. The problem may be more complicated than the text indicates because the dealers and factory distributors likely market other lines of appliances produced by other manufacturers. So the focus may be on the marketing arrangements for all types of appliances, not just Handy Andy compactors.Question 4: In the case is the statement, “The factory distributors in these few cities indicated that they, not Handy Andy, Inc., stood behind the one-year warranty.” Is this a problem for Handy Andy? Why or why not?In today’s business environment, which emphasizes c lear, consistent, and compelling messages from seller to buyer, this might be a problem for Handy Andy. For example, a buyer might be confused (i.e., lack clarity) about whether Handy Andy or the factory distributor is standing behind the product—or are both Handy Andy and the factorydistributor standing behind the product? Alternatively, might a buyer perceive that the factory distributor is offering a service (one-year warranty) that Handy Andy is unwilling or unable to provide (i.e., not compelling)?Question 5: Bixby, Booher, and Ortega recognize that Handy Andy needs a better way to learn about the buyer’s installation experience. One alternative is to add an open-ended question, dealing with the installation experience, to the warranty activation form. Another alternative is to email a brief survey about the installation experience within three to five days of receiving a warranty activation form. Which of these alternatives should Handy Andy choose? Why?There are pros and cons to both alternatives. One advantage to adding an open-ended question to the warranty might be that the one question isn’t likely to keep people from returning the warranty form. One disadvantage is that open-ended questions can be difficult to analyze because someone is needed to classify the responses. One advantage to the brief survey is that Handy Andy might be able to collect more, as well as more uniform, data than with one open-ended question. Alternatively, the email survey isn’t likely to be completed and returned by all potential respondents.Question 6: Discuss the pros and cons of allowing Handy Andy trash compactors to be sold only through licensed retailers (i.e., factory distributors would no longer be able to sell to consumers).An initial issue that might be discussed involves determining the pros and cons from each party’s perspective. For example, the licensed retailers are likely to have a different set of pros and cons than the factory distributors. At minimum, allowing sales only through licensed retailers would likely reduce, if not eliminate, the factory distributors’ exploitation of the retailers—which the retailers should really like. However, allowing sales only through licensed retailers likely will reduce the sales potential of the factory distributors—and what might these distributors do to recover the lost sales? Would some distributors choose to altogether eliminate the Handy Andy brand? If so, how quickly—if at all—would Handy Andy be able to add new factory distributors?Question 7: Is it too late for Handy Andy to attempt service recovery with customers who reported a less-than-satisfactory installation experience? Why or why not?The text defines service recovery as a process for returning a customer to a state of satisfaction after a service or product has failed to live up to expectations, and also indicates that there is no set formula for service recovery. There is no right or wrong answer to Question 7, and answers are likely to reflect a student’s opinion on how far a company should go to satisfy customers who have experienced a service failure of some type. For example, one argument is that Handy Andy might be better off not attempting service recovery in the sense that the c ompany’s efforts might rekindle unpleasant memories for some customers. An alternative argument is that it’s never too late to attempt service recovery—even if it rekindles unpleasant memories—because superior service recovery can result in increased customer loyalty.。
曼昆微观经济学课后练习英文答案（第七章）
曼昆微观经济学课后练习英⽂答案（第七章）rketsWHAT’S NEW IN THE SIXTH EDITION:There are no major changes to this chapter.LEARNING OBJECTIVES:By the end of this chapter, students should understand:the link between buyers’ willingness to pay for a good and the demand curve.how to define and measure consumer surplus.the link between sellers’ costs of producing a good and the supply curve.how to define and measure producer surplus.that the equilibrium of supply and demand maximizes total surplus in a market.CONTEXT AND PURPOSE:Chapter 7 is the first chapter in a three-chapter sequence on welfare economics and market efficiency. Chapter 7 employs the supply and demand model to develop consumer surplus and producer surplus as a measure of welfare and market efficiency. These concepts are then7CONSUMERS, PRODUCERS, AND THEEFFICIENCY OF MARKETSutilized in Chapters 8 and 9 to determine the winners and losers from taxation and restrictions on international trade.The purpose of Chapter 7 is to develop welfare economics—the study of how the allocation of resources affects economic well-being. Chapters 4 through 6 employed supply and demand in a positive framework, which focused on the question, “What is the equilibrium price and quantity in a market” This chapter now addresses the normative question, “Is the equilibrium price and quantity in a market the best possible solution to the resource allocation problem, or is it simply the price and quantity that balance supply and demand” Students will discover that under most circumstances the equilibrium price and quantity is also the one that maximizes welfare.KEY POINTS:Consumer surplus equals buyers’ willingness to pay for a good minus the amount theyactually pay for it, and it measures the benefit buyers get from participating in a market.Consumer surplus can be computed by finding the area below the demand curve and above the price.Producer surplus equals the amount sellers receive for their goods minus their costs of production, and it measures the benefit sellers get from participating in a market.Producer surplus can be computed by finding the area below the price and above the supply curve.An allocation of resources that maximizes the sum of consumer and producer surplus is said to be efficient. Policymakers are often concerned with the efficiency, as well as the equality, of economic outcomes.The equilibrium of supply and demand maximizes the sum of consumer and producer surplus.That is, the invisible hand of the marketplace leads buyers and sellers to allocateresources efficiently.Markets do not allocate resources efficiently in the presence of market failures such as market power or externalities. CHAPTER OUTLINE:I. Definition of welfare economics: the study of how the allocation of resources affectseconomic well-being.Students often are confused by the use of the word “welfare.” Remind themthat we are talking about social well-being and not public assistance.II. Consumer SurplusA. Willingness to Pay1. Definition of willingness to pay: the maximum amount that a buyer will pay for a good.2. Example: You are auctioning a mint-condition recording of Elvis Presley’s first album. Four buyers show up. Their willingness to pay is as follows:If the bidding goes to slightly higher than $80, all buyers drop outexcept for John. Because John is willing to pay more than he has to forthe album, he derives some benefit from participating in the market.3. Definition of consumer surplus: the amount a buyer is willing to pay for a good minus the amount the buyer actually pays for it.4. Note that if you had more than one copy of the album, the price in the auctionJohn and Paul would gain consumer surplus.B. Using the Demand Curve to Measure Consumer Surplus1. We can use the information on willingness to pay to derive a demand curve for the rare Elvis Presley album.2. At any given quantity, the price given by the demand curve reflects thewillingness to pay of the marginal buyer. Because the demand curve shows the buyers’ willingness to pay, we can use the demand curve to measure consumer surplus.Figure 23. Consumer surplus can be measured as the area below the demand curve and above the price.C. How a Lower Price Raises Consumer SurplusFigure 31. As price falls, consumer surplus increases for two reasons.a. Those already buying the product will receive additional consumer surplusbecause they are paying less for the product than before (area A on the graph).b. Because the price is now lower, some new buyers will enter the market andreceive consumer surplus on these additional units of output purchased (area Bon the graph).D. What Does Consumer Surplus MeasureIt is important to stress that consumer surplus is measured in monetaryterms. Consumer surplus gives us a way to place a monetary cost on1. Remember that consumer surplus is the difference between the amount that buyersare willing to pay for a good and the price that they actually pay.2. Thus, it measures the benefit that consumers receive from the good as the buyersthemselves perceive it.ALTERNATIVE CLASSROOM EXAMPLE:Review the material on price ceilings from Chapter 6. Redraw the market for two-bedroom apartments in your town. Draw in a price ceiling below the equilibriumprice.III. Producer SurplusA. Cost and the Willingness to Sell1. Definition of cost: the value of everything a seller must give up to produce agood.You will need to take some time to explain the relationship between theproducers’ willingness to sell and the cost of producing the good. Therelationship between cost and the supply curve is not as apparent as the2. Example: You want to hire someone to paint your house. You accept bids for thework from four sellers. Each painter is willing to work if the price you will pay exceeds her opportunity cost. (Note that this opportunity cost thus represents willingness to sell.) The costs are:3. Bidding will stop when the price gets to be slightly below $600. All sellers willdrop out except for Grandma. Because Grandma receives more than she would require to paint the house, she derives some benefit from producing in the market.4. Definition of producer surplus: the amount a seller is paid for a good minus theseller’s cost of providing it.5. Note that if you had more than one house to paint, the price in the auction wouldend up being higher (a little under $800 in the case of two houses) and bothGrandma and Georgia would gain producer surplus.B. Using the Supply Curve to Measure Producer Surplus1. We can use the information on cost (willingness to sell) to derive a supply curvefor house painting services.Price Sellers Quantity Supplied$900 or more Mary, Frida, Georgia, Grandma4$800 to $900Frida, Georgia, Grandma3$600 to $800Georgia, Grandma2$500 to $600Grandma1less than $500None02. At any given quantity, the price given by the supply curve represents the cost ofthe marginal seller. Because the supply curve shows the sellers’ cost(willingness to sell), we can use the supply curve to measure producer surplus.3. Producer surplus can be measured as the area above the supply curve and below theprice.Figure 4Figure 5C. How a Higher Price Raises Producer Surplus1. As price rises, producer surplus increases for two reasons.a. Those already selling the product will receive additional producer surplusbecause they are receiving more for the product than before (area C on thegraph).b. Because the price is now higher, some new sellers will enter the market andreceive producer surplus on these additional units of output sold (area D onthe graph).D. Producer surplus is used to measure the economic well-being of producers, much likeFigure 6ALTERNATIVE CLASSROOM EXAMPLE:Review the material on price floors from Chapter 6. Redraw the market for anagricultural product such as corn. Draw in a price support above the equilibriumprice.Then go through:IV. Market EfficiencyA. The Benevolent Social Planner1. The economic well-being of everyone in society can be measured by total surplus,which is the sum of consumer surplus and producer surplus:Total Surplus = Consumer Surplus + Producer SurplusTotal Surplus = (Value to Buyers – Amount Paid by Buyers) + (Amount Received by Sellers – Cost to Sellers) Because the Amount Paid by Buyers = Amount Received by Sellers:2. Definition of efficiency: the property of a resource allocation of maximizing thetotal surplus received by all members of society .3. Definition of equality: the property of distributing economic prosperity uniformlythe members of society .B. Evaluating the Market EquilibriumTotal Surplus = Value to Buyers Cost to SellersFigure 7Now might be a good time to point out that many government policies involvea trade-off between efficiency and equity. When you evaluate government Pretty Woman, Chapter 6. Vivien (Julia Roberts) and Edward (Richard Gere)negotiate a price. Afterward, Vivien reveals she would have accepted a lower price, while Edward admits he would have paid more. If you have done a good job of introducing consumer and producer surplus, you will see the1. At the market equilibrium price:a. Buyers who value the product more than the equilibrium price will purchase theproduct; those who do not, will not purchase the product. In other words, thefree market allocates the supply of a good to the buyers who value it mosthighly, as measured by their willingness to pay.b. Sellers whose costs are lower than the equilibrium price will produce theproduct; those whose costs are higher, will not produce the product. In otherwords, the free market allocates the demand for goods to the sellers who canproduce it at the lowest cost.2. Total surplus is maximized at the market equilibrium.Figure 8a. At any quantity of output smaller than the equilibrium quantity, the value ofthe product to the marginal buyer is greater than the cost to the marginalseller so total surplus would rise if output increases.b. At any quantity of output greater than the equilibrium quantity, the value ofthe product to the marginal buyer is less than the cost to the marginal sellerso total surplus would rise if output decreases.3. Note that this is one of the reasons that economists believe Principle #6: Marketsare usually a good way to organize economic activity.It would be a good idea to remind students that there are circumstanceswhen the market process does not lead to the most efficient outcome.Examples include situations such as when a firm (or buyer) has market powerC. In the News: Ticket Scalping1. Ticket scalping is an example of how markets work to achieve an efficient outcome.2. This article from The Boston Globe describes economist Chip Case’s experiencewith ticket scalping.D. Case Study: Should There Be a Market in Organs1. As a matter of public policy, people are not allowed to sell their organs.a. In essence, this means that there is a price ceiling on organs of $0.b. This has led to a shortage of organs.2. The creation of a market for organs would lead to a more efficient allocation of resources, but critics worry about the equity of a market system for organs.V. Market Efficiency and Market FailureA. To conclude that markets are efficient, we made several assumptions about how markets worked.1. Perfectly competitive markets.2. No externalities.B. When these assumptions do not hold, the market equilibrium may not be efficient.C. When markets fail, public policy can potentially remedy the situation.SOLUTIONS TO TEXT PROBLEMS:Quick Quizzes1. Figure 1 shows the demand curve for turkey. The price of turkey is P1 and the consumer surplus that results from that price is denoted CS. Consumer surplus isthe amount a buyer is willing to pay for a good minus the amount the buyeractually pays for it. It measures the benefit to buyers of participating in amarket.Figure 1 Figure 22. Figure 2 shows the supply curve for turkey. The price of turkey is P1 and the producer surplus that results from that price is denoted PS. Producer surplus is the amount sellers are paid for a good minus the sellers’ cost of providing it (measured by the supply curve). It measures the benefit to sellers of participating in a market.Figure 33. Figure 3 shows the supply and demand for turkey. The price of turkey is P1, consumer surplus is CS, and producer surplus is PS. Producing more turkeys than the equilibrium quantity would lower total surplus because the value to the marginal buyer would be lower than the cost to the marginal seller on those additional units.Questions for Review1. The price a buyer is willing to pay, consumer surplus, and the demand curve areall closely related. The height of the demand curve represents the willingness topay of the buyers. Consumer surplus is the area below the demand curve and abovethe price, which equals the price that each buyer is willing to pay minus theprice actually paid.2. Sellers' costs, producer surplus, and the supply curve are all closely related.The height of the supply curve represents the costs of the sellers. Producersurplus is the area below the price and above the supply curve, which equals theprice received minus each seller's costs of producing the good.Figure 43. Figure 4 shows producer and consumer surplus in a supply-and-demand diagram.4. An allocation of resources is efficient if it maximizes total surplus, the sum ofconsumer surplus and producer surplus. But efficiency may not be the only goal of economic policymakers; they may also be concerned about equity the fairness of the distribution of well-being.5. The invisible hand of the marketplace guides the self-interest of buyers andsellers into promoting general economic well-being. Despite decentralized decision making and self-interested decision makers, free markets often lead to anefficient outcome.6. Two types of market failure are market power and externalities. Market power maycause market outcomes to be inefficient because firms may cause price and quantity to differ from the levels they would be under perfect competition, which keeps total surplus from being maximized. Externalities are side effects that are not taken into account by buyers and sellers. As a result, the free market does not maximize total surplus.Problems and Applications1. a. Consumer surplus is equal to willingness to pay minus the price paid.Therefore, Melissa’s willingness to pay must be $200 ($120 + $80).b. Her consumer surplus at a price of $90 would be $200 ? $90 = $110.c. If the price of an iPod was $250, Melissa would not have purchased one becausethe price is greater than her willingness to pay. Therefore, she would receiveno consumer surplus.2. If an early freeze in California sours the lemon crop, the supply curve for lemonsshifts to the left, as shown in Figure 5. The result is a rise in the price oflemons and a decline in consumer surplus from A + B + C to just A. So consumer surplus declines by the amount B + C.Figure 5 Figure 6In the market for lemonade, the higher cost of lemons reduces the supply of lemonade, as shown in Figure 6. The result is a rise in the price of lemonade and a decline in consumer surplus from D + E + F to just D, a loss of E + F. Note that an event that affects consumer surplus in one market often has effects on consumer surplus in other markets.。
供应链战略、规划与运作复习要点
1.1What is a Supply Chain? All stages involved, directly or indirectly, in fulfilling a customer request Includes manufacturers, suppliers, transporters, warehouses, retailers, and customers. Within each company, the supply chain includes all functions involved in fulfilling a customer request (product development, marketing, operations, distribution, finance, customer service). A typical supply chain may involve a variety of stages: customers, retailers, distributors, manufacturers, suppliers.1.4 Decision Phases of a Supply Chain1.Supply chain strategy or design: during this phase , given the marketing and pricing plans for a product, a company decides how to structure the supply chain over the next several years.2.Supply Chain Planning: for decisions made during this phase, the time frame considered is a quarter to a year.3.Supply Chain Operation: Time horizon is weekly or daily, and during this phase companies make Decisions regarding individual customer orders.1.5Process Views of a Supply Chain1. Cycle view: processes in a supply chain are divided into a series of cycles, each performed at the interfaces between two successive supply chain stages. Customer Order Cycle, Replenishment Cycle ,Manufacturing Cycle ,Procurement Cycle.2.Push/pull view: processes in a supply chain are divided into two categories depending on whether they are executed in response to a customer order or in anticipation of a customer order. Fig.1.5Push/Pull View of Supply Chains:Customer Order Arrives /push pull process.Fig1.8: Supply Chain Macro Processes in a Firm,掌1.Customer Relationship Management (CRM) 2.Internal Supply Chain Management (ISCM) 3.Supplier Relationship Management (SRM)2.1 Competitive and supply chain strategies(1)to see the relationship between Competitive and supply chain strategies ,we start with the value chain for a typical organization ,as shown in fig 2-1.(Competitive strategy: defines the set of customer needs a firm seeks to satisfy through its products and services).(2)A Product development strategy: specifies the portfolio of new products that the company will try to develop(3)Marketing and sales strategy: specifies how the market will be segmented and product positioned, priced, and promoted(4)Supply chain strategy: determines the nature of material procurement, transportation of materials, manufacture of product or creation of service, distribution of product Consistency and support between supply chain strategy, competitive strategy, and other functional strategies is important.2.2Achieving Strategic Fit 1.means that both the competitive and supply chain strategies have aligned goals.3.1Drivers of Supply Chain PerformanceFacilities:1.places where inventory is stored, assembled, or fabricated;2.production sites and storage sitesInventory:1.raw materials, WIP, finished goods within a supply chain 2.inventory policiesTransportation:1.moving inventory from point to point in a supply chain;binations of transportation modes and routesInformation:1.data and analysis regarding inventory, transportation, facilities throughout the supply chain;2.potentially the biggest driver of supply chain performance Sourcing: functions a firm performs and functions that are outsourced Pricing: Price associated with goods and services provided by a firm to the supply chain3.2A Framework for Structuring Drivers3.3 Role in the supply chain1.the “where” of the supply chain2.manufacturing or storage (warehouses) 1.location : deciding where a company will locate its facilities constitutes a large part of the design of a supply chain.2.Capacity:(flexibility versus efficiency).3.4 Inventory : Components of Inventory Decisions1)Cycle inventory：1.Average amount of inventory used to satisfy demand between shipments 2.Depends on lot size2)Safety inventory：1.inventory held in case demand exceeds expectations 2.costs of carrying too much inventory versus cost of losing sales3)Seasonal inventory：1.inventory built up to counter predictable variability in demand 2.cost of carrying additional inventory versus cost of flexible production3.5 Transportation：Components of transportation decisions：We now identify key components of transportation that companies must analyze when designing and operating a supply chain.3.6 Information：Components of information decisions1.Push (MRP) versus pull (demand information transmitted quickly throughout the supply chain)2.Coordination and information sharing3.Forecasting and aggregate planning4.Enabling technologies EDI Internet ERP systems Supply Chain Management software.3.7Sourcing：Role in the Supply Chain：Set of business processes required to purchase goods and services in a supply chainComponents of Sourcing Decisions：1.In-house versus outsource decisions2.Supplier evaluation and selection3.Procurement process 4.Overall trade-off:Increase the supply chain profits3.8pricing1.Pricing and economies of scale 2.Everyday low pricing versus high-low pricing3.Fixed price versus menu pricing3.9 Obstacles to Achieving Strategic Fit1.Increasing variety of products 2. Decreasing product life cycles3. Increasingly demanding customers4. Fragmentation of supply chain ownership Globalization5. Difficulty executing new strategies4.1The Role of Distribution in the Supply ChainDistribution refers to the steps taken to move and store a product from the supplier stage to the customer stage in a supply chain4.2Factors Influencing Distribution Network Design(1) Distribution network performance evaluated along two dimensions at the highest level:1）.Customer needs that are met 2）.Cost of meeting customer needs(2)Elements of customer service influenced by network structure:1.Response time 2.Product variety 3.Product availability 4.Customer experience5.Order visibility6.Returnability ：(1)Product availability is the probability of having a product in stock when a customer order arrives. (2) Order visibility is the ability of customers to track their orders from placement to delivery.！Supply chain costs affected by network structure: Inventories Transportation Facilities and handling Information4.3Design Options for a Distribution Network1.Manufacturer Storage with Direct Shipping2.Manufacturer Storage with Direct Shipping and In-Transit Merge3.Distributor Storage with Carrier Delivery4.Distributor Storage with Last Mile Delivery5.Manufacturer or Distributor Storage with Consumer Pickup6.Retail Storage with Consumer PickupLast-mile delivery refers to the distributor/retailer delivering the product to the customers home instead of using a package carrier.5.1Network Design Decisions1.Facility role: Facility location decision have a long term impact on a supply chain’s performance because it is very expensive to shut down a facility or move it to a different location. A good location decision can help a supply chain be responsive while keeping its costs low.2.Facility location: in contrast, a poorly located facility makes it very difficult for a supply chain to perform close to the efficient frontier.3.Capacity allocation: decision also has a significant impact on supply chain performance .4.Market and supply allocation to facility: has a significant impact on performance because it affects total production, inventory, and transportation costs incurred by the supply chain to satisfy customer demand.5.2Factors Influencing Network Design DecisionsStrategic factor:1.offshore facility: low-cost facility for export production.2. Source facility: low-cost facility for global production.3. Server facility: regional production facility.4. Contributo r facility: regional production facility with development skill.5. Outpos t facility: regional production facility built to gain local skills.6. Lead facility: facility that leads in development and process technologies.1.Technological2.Macroeconomic: include taxes, tariffs, exchange rates, and other economic factors that are not internal to an individual firm.3.Political4.Infrastructurepetitive6.Logistics and facility costs6.1The Impact of Uncertainty on Network Design DecisionsSupply chain design decisions such as the number and size of plant to build, the size and scope of a distribution system, and whether to buy or lease one’s facilities involve significant investment.( include investments in number and size of plants, number of trucks, number of warehouses). These decisions cannot be easily changed in the short- term.6.2 Discounted Cash Flow Analysis Npv: 6.3 Representations of Uncertainty6.4 Evaluating Network Design Decisions Using Decision TreeA manager must make many different decisions when designing a supply chain network. Many of them involve a choice between a long-term (or less flexible) option and a short-term (or more flexible) option. If uncertainty is ignored, the long-term option will almost always be selected because it is typically cheaper. Such a decision can eventually hurt the firm, however, because actual future prices or demand may be different from what was forecasted at the time of the decisionA decision tree is a graphic device that can be used to evaluate decisions under uncertainty.The first step in setting up a decision tree is to identify the number of time periods into the future that will be considered when making the decision. The next step is to identify factors that will affect the value of the decision and are likely to fluctuateThe next step is to identify a periodic discount rate k to be applied to future cash flowds.The decision tree analysis methodology is summarized as follows:1 identify the duration of each period(month, quarter,) and the number of periods T over which the decision is to be evaluated.Three options:1.get all warehousing space from the spot market as needed.2.Sign a three-year lease for a fixed amount of warehouse space and get additional requirements from the spot market.3.Sign a flexible lease with a minimum charge that allows variable usage of warehouse space up to limit with additional requirement from the spot market.Trips Logistics Decision Tree C(d=144,p=1.45,2)=144000*1.45=$208800 ;P(d=144,p=1.45,2)=144000*1.22C(d=144,p=1.45,2)=144000*1.45=$208800 =175680-208800=-$33120.7 Demand Forecasting in a Supply Chain: Forecasts of future demand are essential for making supply chain decisions.7.2 Characteristics of Forecasts1.Forecasts are always wrong. Should include expected value and measure of error.2. Long-term forecasts are less accurate than short-term forecasts (forecast horizon is important) that is, long-term forecasts have a larger standard deviation of error relative to the mean than short-term forecasts.3. Aggregate forecasts are more accurate than disaggregate forecasts.4. in general, the farther up the supply chain a company is (or the farther it is from the consumer ), the greater is the distortion of information it receives.7.3 Components of a forecast and forecasting methods :A company must be knowledgeable about numerous factors that are related to the demand forecast. Past demand, Lead time of product, Planned advertising or marketing efforfs, State of the economy, Planned price discounts, Actions that competitors have taken. Forecasting methods are classified according to the following four types.1.Qualitative: qualitative forecasting methods are primarily subjective and rely on human judgment.2.Time series: time-series forecasting methods use historical demand to make a forecast.3. Causal: causal forecasting methods assume that the demand forecast is highly correlated with certain factors in the environment.4. Simulation: simulating forecasting methods imitate the consumer choices that give rise to demand to arrive at a forecast.7.4 Basic Approach to Demand Forecasting1.Understand the objectives of forecasting2. Integrate demand planning and forecasting3.Identify major factors that influence the demand forecast4.Understand and identify customer segments5.Determine the appropriate forecasting technique6.Establish performance and error measures for the forecast7.5 Time Series Forecasting Methods Time Series Forecasting (Table 7.1)7.6 Measures of Forecast Erro rForecast error = E t = F t - D t Mean squared error (MSE) MSE n = (Sum(t=1 to n)[E t2])/n Absolute deviation = A t = |E t|8.1 Role of aggregate planning in a supply chain: Is a process by which a company determines ideal levels of capacity, production, subcontracting, inventory, stockouts, and even pricing over a specified time horizon. Specify operational parameters over the time horizon: production rate, workforce, overtime, machine capacity level, subcontracting, backlog, inventory on hand.8.2 The Aggregate Planning Problem:1. Information Needed for an Aggregate Plan: Demand forecast in each periodProduction costs:bor costs, regular time ($/hr) and overtime ($/hr);2.subcontracting costs ($/hr or $/unit);3.cost of changing capacity: hiring or layoff ($/worker) and cost of adding or reducing machine capacity ($/machine):(1)Labor/machine hours required per unit;(2)Inventory holding cost ($/unit/period); (2)Stockout or backlog cost ($/unit/period) Constraints: limits on overtime, layoffs, capital available, stockouts .2.Production quantity from regular time, overtime, and subcontracted time: used to determine number of workers and supplier purchase levels Inventory held: used to determine how much warehouse space and working capital is needed; Backlog/stockout quantity: used to determine what customer service levels will be Workforce; Hired/Laid off: used to determine any labor issues likely to be encountered.Machine capacity increase/decrease: used to determine if new production equipment needs to be purchased.8.3 Aggregate Planning Strategies: 1.Chase strategy – using capacity as the lever 2.Time flexibility from workforce or capacity strategy – using utilization as the lever 3.Level strategy – using inventory as the lever.9.1Responding to predictable variability in a supply chain: A firm can handle predictable variability using two broad approaches:1Manage supply using capacity, inventory, subcontracting, and backlogs2.Manage demand using short-term price discounts and trade promotions9.2 Managing Supply: Managing/Production capacity; Managing inventory.10.2 Economies of Scale to Exploit Fixed CostsD: Annual demand of the product S: Fixed Cost incurred per order;C: Cost per unit h: Holding cost per year as a fraction of product costH: Holding cost per unit per year Q: Lot Size T: Reorder interval; Material cos t is constant and therefore is not considered in this model.13 Transportation in the Supply Chain Air Package carriers Truck Rail Water Pipeline Intermodal.17.1 Lack of Supply Chain Coordination and the Bullwhip EffectMany firms have observed the bullwhip effect, in which fluctuations in orders increase as they move up the supply chain from retailers to wholesalers to manufactures to suppliers.供应链与人生：出师表两汉：诸葛亮先帝创业未半而中道崩殂，今天下三分，益州疲弊，此诚危急存亡之秋也。
供应链复习提纲
Chapter 1: Understanding the Supply ChainDefinition of SC (consists of All stages involved, directly or indirectly, in fulfilling a customer request); functions in SC;Flows in SC (information, product, funds);The objective of a supply chain;To maximize the overall value generatedHow is SC success measured? (total supply chain profitability, NOT profits at an individual stage) Definition of supply chain management;Involves the management of suply chain assets and product,information and fund flows to maximize total supil chain surplus Decision phases in a supply chain (strategy or design, planning, operations);Learn about decisions (functions) in different phases (Strategic SC decisions: Outsource or insource, Locations and capacities of facilities, Products to be made or stored at various locations, Modes of transportation, Type of information systems; Planning: Forecasting demand, Which market supplied from which location, subcontracting decision, inventory policy; Operations: Allocate inventory or production to individual orders, set a date to fill an order, generate pick lists at warehouse, choose shipping mode and shipment for a specific order);Understand two different process views on SC (cycle view, push/pull view);Four different cycles (Customer order cycle (customer-retailer), Replenishment cycle (retailer-distributor), Manufacturing cycle (distributor-manufacturer), Procurement cycle (manufacturer-supplier));Understand the difference between push view and pull view of SC;Pull processes are initiated by a customer order, whereas push processes are initiated and performed in anticipation of customer ordersDescribe the cycle and push/pull view of a supply chain (Page 29);A cycle view of a supply chain divides processes into cycles,each performed at interface between two succeessive staages of supply chain.each cycle starts with an order placed by one stage of the supply chain and ends when the order is received from the supplier stage.A push/pull view of supply chain characterizes processes based on their timing relative tothat of customer order.Pullprocesses are performed inresponse to acustomer order,whreas push processes are performed in anticipation of customer ordersLearn about three SC macro processes (Customer Relationship Management (CRM)：all processes that focus on the interface because the firm and its customers.Internal Supply Chain Management (ISCM):all processes that are internal to the face Supplier Relationship Management (SRM)):all processes that focus on the between the firm and its supliersChapter 2: Supply Chain Performance: Achieving Strategic Fit and ScopeDefinition of Competitive strategy;Relatives to its competitors,the set of competitor needs that it seeks to satisfy through its products and servicesUnderstand SC strategy (include supply strategy”, “operations strategy”, and “logistics strategy”)What is strategic fit? (Consistency between customer priorities of competitive strategy and SC capabilities specified by the SC strategy);three steps to achieve strategic fit;Step 1: different attributes of customer need to be identified (Quantity of product needed in each lot, Response time customers will tolerate, Variety of products needed, Service level required, Price of theproduct, Desired rate of innovation in the product) (Understanding the Customer and Supply Chain Uncertainty);Characteristics of implied demand uncertaintyImplied demand uncertaintyStep 2: understand two dimensions on SC (Responsiveness and efficiency) and trade-off between them; understand "Cost-Responsiveness Efficient Frontier";Step 3: relationship between uncertainty and responsiveness (High (low) implied uncertainty ↔ high (low) responsiveness);Other Issues Affecting Strategic Fit (Multiple products and customer segments, Product life cycle, Competitive changes over time);Different strategic scopes (Intra-operation scope, Intra-functional scope, Inter-functional scope, Inter-company scope, Flexible interfunctional scope)describe the major challenge that must be overcome to manage a SC successfully (作业)Chapter 3: Supply Chain Drivers and MetricsDrivers of supply chain performance and Classification of them (logistical and cross-functional)Trade-off on capacity decision (flexible and dedicate)Functions of cycle inventory, safety inventory, and seasonal inventory; trade-off existing on safety inventory;Definition of Level of product availability; relationship between level of product availability and responsiveness (inventory cost);What is Transportation network?Chapter 4: Designing distribution networks and the applications to online salesWhat is distribution networks?Two aspects (cost and the customer value) impacted by distribution networkWhat are the factors impacting customer value (cos) related to distribution network?relationship between number of facilities and response time, inventory cost; relationship between number of facilities and inbound (outbound) transportation cost;Design options for a distribution network (Manufacturer Storage with Direct Shipping, Manufacturer Storage with Direct Shipping and In-Transit Merge, Distributor Storage with Carrier Delivery, Distributor Storage with Last Mile Delivery, Manufacturer or Distributor Storage with Consumer Pickup, Retail Storage with Customer Pickup)；identify different options based on figures (按图识别) and understand their characteristics (mainly on transportation cost and inventory cost);What are the impact of online sale on customer service?Understand relationship between online sale and inventory aggregationimpact of online sale on transportation cost for different types of product (digital or non-digital product)Chapter 5: Network Design in the Supply ChainWhat does network design decision include?Identify factors influencing supply chain network design decision (page 145)What is Positive externalities between firmsHotelling modelDevelop a framework for making network design decision (four stages; page 146)Chapter 7: Demand Forecasting in a Supply ChainLearn about the decisions in a SC that impacted by demand forecast;Compare aggregate forecast and disaggregate forecast;What are the influencing factors on forecast?Four different forecasting methods and their characteristics;Components of demand (Systematic component (level, trend, and seasonality; Random component) (Page 217);Three different ways of calculating systematic component in Time-series forecating method (Multiplicative, Additive, mixed); Understand the forecasting process in the third way (mixed) by considering seasonal factor;What's the difference between static methods and adaptive forecasting?Characteristic of Moving Average time-series forecasting method;Chapter 8: Aggregate Planning in the Supply ChainCharacteristics of aggregate planning;What is the aggregate planning problem?Learn about three different aggregate planning strategies (Chase strategy, Flexibility strategy, Level strategy) and their characteristics;Describe the information needed for an aggregate plan (page 241)Explain the basic trade-offs when creating an aggregate planning (page 241)Aggregate planning using linear programming (识别决策变量，构建线性规划的目标函数和约束条件，列出详细的建模过程；不需要求解）Chapter 11: Managing Economies of Scale in the Supply Chain: Cycle InventoryWhy does cycle inventory exist? Definition of cycle inventory;Calculation equation of Average flow time;Relationship between cycle inventory and order lot sizeBenefits of lowing cycle inventoryWhat's the tradeoff in deciding optimal lot size?Calculation of lot size for single product (EOQ; Example 11.1)Calculation of lot size for single product by considering limited production abilityCalculation on aggregating multiple products in a single order (订货成本固定，库存持有成本相同) Calculation on lot sizing with multiple products or customers (订货成本随成本种类变化而变化，库存持有成本不同; Example 11-3); comparing aggregation and disaggregation;Difference between all-unit quantity discount and marginal unit quantity discount;Calculation of EOQ for all-unit quantity discountChapter 12 Managing Uncertainty in a Supply Chain: Safety InventoryUnderstand the role of safety inventory in a SC (Page 359);Fundamental trade-off on safety inventory;Identify the factors influencing the required level of safety inventory (Page 359);Understand the three measurements on availability (product fill rate, order fill rate, and cycle service level); Difference between continuous review policy and periodic review policy;Example 12-1: Evaluating safety inventoryExample 12-2: Evaluating cycle service levelExample 12-3: Evaluating Fill RateExample 12-4: Evaluating safety inventory given CSLExample 12-5: Evaluating safety inventory given desired frRelationship between safety inventory level and different factors (desired product availability, replenishment lead time, the standard deviation of periodic demand, supply uncertainty)Example 12-7: Impact of correlation on value of aggregationChapter 14: Transportation in the Supply ChainDifferent types of transportation modes in a SC and their characteristicsLearn about different parties in transportationtypical applications of intermodal transportationDesign options for a transportation network (Direct shipping network to a single destination, Direct shipping with milk runs, All shipments via central DC with storage, All shipments via central DC with cross docking, Shipping via DC using milk runs) and their characteristics (application circumstance)。
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Forecasting Methods
Static Adaptive
– – – – Moving average Simple exponential smoothing Holt’s model (with trend) Winter’s model (with trend and seasonality)
– the number of periods after which the seasonal cycle repeats itself – for demand at Tahoe Salt (Table 7.1, Figure 7.1) p = 4
© 2007 Pearson Education
Time Series Forecasting
50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0
© 2007 Pearson Education
97 ,2 97 ,3 97 ,4 98 ,1 98 ,2 98 ,3 98 ,4 99 ,1 99 ,2 99 ,3 99 ,4 00 ,1
© 2007 Pearson Education
7-2
Role of Forecasting in a Supply Chain
The basis for all strategic and planning decisions in a supply chain Used for both push and pull processes Examples:
7-14
Time Series Forecasting (Table 7.1)
Quarter II, 1998 III, 1998 IV, 1998 I, 1999 II, 1999 III, 1999 IV, 1999 I, 2000 II, 2000 III, 2000 IV, 2000 I, 2001
Time Series Forecasting (Figure 7.1)
50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0
© 2007 Pearson Education
97 ,2 97 ,3 97 ,4 98 ,1 98 ,2 98 ,3 98 ,4 99 ,1 99 ,2 99 ,3 99 ,4 00 ,1
– the number of periods after which the seasonal cycle repeats itself – for demand at Tahoe Salt (Table 7.1, Figure 7.1) p = 4
© 2007 Pearson Education
© 2007 Pearson Education
7-10
Time Series Forecasting Methods
Goal is to predict systematic component of demand
– Multiplicative: (level)(trend)(seasonal factor) – Additive: level + trend + seasonal factor – Mixed: (level + trend)(seasonal factor)
7-16
Estimating Level and Trend
Before estimating level and trend, demand data must be deseasonalized Deseasonalized demand = demand that would have been observed in the absence of seasonal fluctuations Periodicity (p)
7-17
Deseasonalizing Demand
[Dt-(p/2) + Dt+(p/2) + S 2Di] / 2p for p even Dt =
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Demand Dt 8000 13000 23000 34000 10000 18000 23000 38000 12000 13000 32000 41000
Forecast demand for the next four quarters.
7-7
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Hale Waihona Puke Demand Dt 8000 13000 23000 34000 10000 18000 23000 38000 12000 13000 32000 41000
Forecast demand for the next four quarters.
7-15
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7-4
Forecasting Methods
Qualitative: primarily subjective; rely on judgment and opinion Time Series: use historical demand only
Before estimating level and trend, demand data must be deseasonalized Deseasonalized demand = demand that would have been observed in the absence of seasonal fluctuations Periodicity (p)
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Time Series Forecasting
Quarter II, 1998 III, 1998 IV, 1998 I, 1999 II, 1999 III, 1999 IV, 1999 I, 2000 II, 2000 III, 2000 IV, 2000 I, 2001
All of these decisions are interrelated
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Characteristics of Forecasts
Forecasts are always wrong. Should include expected value and measure of error. Long-term forecasts are less accurate than shortterm forecasts (forecast horizon is important) Aggregate forecasts are more accurate than disaggregate forecasts
Static methods Adaptive forecasting
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7-11
Static Methods
Assume a mixed model: Systematic component = (level + trend)(seasonal factor) Ft+l = [L + (t + l)T]St+l = forecast in period t for demand in period t + l L = estimate of level for period 0 T = estimate of trend St = estimate of seasonal factor for period t Dt = actual demand in period t Ft = forecast of demand in period t
– Static – Adaptive
Causal: use the relationship between demand and some other factor to develop forecast Simulation
– Imitate consumer choices that give rise to demand – Can combine time series and causal methods
Supply Chain Management (3rd Edition)
Chapter 7 Demand Forecasting in a Supply Chain
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Outline
The role of forecasting in a supply chain Characteristics of forecasts Components of forecasts and forecasting methods Basic approach to demand forecasting Time series forecasting methods Measures of forecast error Forecasting demand at Tahoe Salt Forecasting in practice
– Production: scheduling, inventory, aggregate planning – Marketing: sales force allocation, promotions, new production introduction – Finance: plant/equipment investment, budgetary planning – Personnel: workforce planning, hiring, layoffs
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