国际金融11国际体系

• Microprudential approach • capital ratio requirement
• Problem • When a microprudentially-oriented regulator pushes a troubled bank to restore its capital ratio, the regulator does not care whether the bank adjusts by raising new capital or by shrinking assets. • However, if a large fraction of the financial system is in difficulty, a simultaneous attempt by many institutions to shrink their assets, like cutting back on lending, is likely to be more damaging to the economy.
Macroprudential regulation
• Generalized asset shrinkage has two primary costs • credit-crunch and fire-sale effects
• Prevent credit-crunch and fire-sale effect→Macroprudential Tools • Time-Varying Capital Requirements • higher ratios of capital to assets in good times than in bad times • Higher Quality Capital • Corrective Action Targeted At Dollars of Capital, Not Capital Ratios • create incentives for the bank to raise incremental dollars of new capital • Contingent Capital • contingent convertibles and capital insurance • Regulation of Debt Maturity • Regulating the Shadow Banking System
What’s wrong with the microprudential regulation?
• Regulatory framework in place prior to the global financial crisis was deficient, because it was largely “microprudential” in nature
• 金融稳定委员会负责国际金融尤其是国际金融监管的改革 • 金砖银行、亚洲基础设施投资银行
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危机后国际金融体系治理架构改革
• G20会议取代G8会议，成为国际金融治理的主要平台 • 金融稳定理事会（FSB）成立，巴塞尔银行监管委员会（BCBS）扩员 • 2009年，中国成为FSB和BCBS正式成员 • G20“匹兹堡峰会”确定由FSB、BCBS主导推进国际金融监管制度改革
全球危机之后的变革
• （1）新兴市场经济特别是金砖国家经济的比重显著上升；（2）缺乏国际金融监管体系； （3）华盛顿共识似乎并不有效
• IMF和世界银行的改革
• 美国牵头建立了G20峰会，处理重大国际事务（合法性与有效性） • 中、印、俄、巴、南建立了金砖集团，协调新兴市场经济
• （有人提出G2）
国际金融：基本理论与中国实践
（11）国际体系
黄益平
2014年经济学研究生课程
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现行国际金融体系
• 1944年建立的布雷顿森林体系 • 汇率制度：黄金、美元 • 国际组织：世界银行和国际货币基金组织 • （七国或八国集团） • 华盛顿共识
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危机前国际金融体系存在的问题
• 金融机构过度杠杆化，资本的数量与质量均存在问题 • 金融机构流动性风险突出，流动性储备严重不足 • 公司治理和风险管理存在缺陷，激励机制扭曲 • 宏观审慎监管视角缺失，不能有效防范系统性风险 • 影子银行潜藏巨大风险，成为引发金融危机的重要因素
• A more outward-looking US monetary policy is not only in America’s own best interest, but also in the rest of the world’s.
The robust facilitator
• The first role of dollar as international money • Facilitates multilateral international exchange • Why we need central money? • It is a natural monopoly. Consider a world with 150 currencies and… • with one currency as central money, then 149 bilateral foreign exchange markets are required. • without central money, 150*149*1/2=11,175 bilateral foreign exchange markets are required. • How can dollar’s facilitating role work smoothly? • Currency convertibility on both capital and current accounts • Stay out of the foreign exchange markets, with no exchange rate target of its own
Rehabilitating the unloved dollar standard
• McKinnon, Ronald I., 2010,"Rehabilitating the unloved dollar standard", Asian Pacific Economic Literature, doi: 10.1111/j.1467-8411.2010.01258.x. (***)
The slipping anchor (1)
• The second role of dollar as international money • Monetary anchor for the price levels and exchange rates of other currencies
A macroprudential approach to financial regulation
• Hanson, Samuel, Anil Kashyap, and Jeremy Stein, 2010, "A macroprudential approach to financial regulation", Chicago Booth Research Paper No. 58, Booth School of Business, University of Chicago. (***) • Microprudential approach • partial-equilibrium • preventing failure f individual financial institutions • Macroprudential approach • general-equilibrium • safeguard the financial system as a whole
Why anchor is slipping? Three fallacies • Phillips Curve fallacy • higher inflation, lower rate of unemployment • Discredited by Milton Friedman (1968), consider expectation • Efficient markets fallacy • Bubbles would be efficiently self-correcting without any countervailing action by the central bank • Asset price bubble from 2002 to 2008 lead to crisis • Exchange rate fallacy • Exchange rate will correct trade imbalances • In a globalized world where capital flows freely, it is misguided • Japan in 1980s and 1990s, yen appreciation, higher cost to invest in Japan, investment outflow, trade surplus increased
The slipping anchor (4)
Asset price bubble from 2002 to 2008 lead to crisis
Bagehot’s role for internationalizing American monetary policy
• Bagehot, the eminent Victorian institutional economist, 1873, give suggestions for Bank of England • Domestic drain: people flew from paper money and deposits into gold • External drain: flight of capital abroad • Bagehot’s rule: • “Very large domestic loans at very high rates are the best remedy for the worst malady of the money markets when a foreign drain is added to a domestic drain” • After 2002, Bagehot would have argued for raising the federal funds rate as much as was necessary to prevent the dollar from falling continuously and accentuating the creation of a bubble economy • The exchange rate fallacy seems to be alive, and is the biggest obstacle for dollar standard