全球地平线 美国空军战略发展计划

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Outline
Future Global Environment Technology Horizons Energy Horizons Cyber Vision 2025 Global Horizons
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SPACE
Cyberspace: threatened by malicious insiders, supply chain attacks, and advanced persistent threats to deceive, degrade, disrupt, destroy
Global Sectors
Laws Help Forecast Future
Transistor Count
Date
Moore’s Law
?
Metcalf’s Law
Overtrust f(threat, vulnerability, resilience, consequence)
.1
Adoption Acceleration
Air: Anti-Access, Area Denial (A2/AD)
Global Vigilance, Reach and Power dependent upon contested Global Domains and Globalized Industrial Sectors
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Highly-adaptive autonomous systems (and trust in autonomy) Human-machine interfaces and human performance augmentation Increased cyber resilience PNT in GPS-denied environments Electromagnetic spectrum warfare Processing-enabled intelligent sensors Directed energy for tactical strike/defense Next-generation high-efficiency gas turbine engines Persistent space situational awareness Rapidly composable small satellites
Shocks Malware
• •
‐5%
(Health, Env, Econ, Soc, Pol)
Population
9.2 B (70% U, 41yrs, 65%)
•
+40%
6 B (46%U, 27 yrs, ~45%) 180 nm 180 nm 43M, 147 M (2.5%) 105 bps, 1 Tflop 2500 1600 35 K 57.9oF $641B, 66%
Findings
Energy S&T advances can revolutionize cost, readiness, and resiliency Air fuels and facilities/data centers primary cost drivers Benefits from systems, operations, supply, and culture Partnership and S&T leverage essential
Ultra‐Efficient PhotoVoltaics
•100k discharge cycles •High power (10MW) • High energy density (>300 Wh/kg) •Hours of discharge
• • • • • •
25%
750
70%
• • • • • •Chinese CS PhDs
8‐10nm
• •
IC Size
US CS PhDs
•
1500
•
1999
2012
2025
2050
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CMOS – Complimentary Metal‐Oxide Semiconductor; IC – Integrated Circuit

Leabharlann Recommendations
Mission-focused S&T roles (lead, follow, watch) in near-, mid-, far-term Air: Efficient engines and structures, distributed virtual training, flight formation Space: Efficient photovoltaics, efficient ground stations, fractionated constellations Cyber: Efficient cloud and HPC Infrastructure: Secure microgrids, Expeditionary energy, small modular nuclear reactors, solar to petrol Enabling: nanomaterials, biomimicry, autonomy
Headquarters U.S. Air Force
Global Horizons
Dr. Mark T. Maybury Former (33rd) Air Force Chief Scientist
August 2013
Distribution A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Public Release Case Nos 2013‐0389, 2012‐0460/0438/0439, 2011‐0589 public release; distribution unlimited. I n t e g rDistribution i t y A.- Approved S e for r v i ce - E isx cellence
High
RPA Watson Cruise Control ABS PC, Blender
Years
1
Facebook Internet Mobile Phone
Confidence
UAS, Google Car Undertrust
Med
10
Phone Radio Television PC
Low Low “in”
HPC: High Performance Computing
SAF/PA Case Number 2011‐0589
Air Space
Cyber Infrastructure
Distribution A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
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7
Cross Cutting Energy Enabling Technologies
Generation
• 70% Efficient • Quantum dots • Flexible Materials • Efficient conversion • Non food sources (e.g., camelina) • Global supply • Counter‐Rotating Ring Receiver Reactor Recuperator •Small modular •<300 MW • Autosafing •Waste reuse • Transportable • Grid security
Maybury’s Law
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Distribution A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Global Horizons
1999-2025+
Global Population (% urban, avg age, % middle class) US Off‐shoring (% Change) CMOS Integrated Circuit Feature Size Info Tech – Hosts, Users (% Pop), Mobile, Bandwidth (log), Speed US Computing PhD Degrees Chinese Computing PhD Degrees Malware Signatures ‐10% Climate Change (Temp, Humidity) Reserves/Production (Energy, Minerals) Global R&D (% foreign)
Distribution A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. 6
/afenergyhorizons
Energy Horizons: Air Force Energy S&T Vision
Energy Horizons Vision Assured energy advantage across air, space, cyberspace and infrastructure