国际金融(英文版第二版)Chapter 9 The International Monetary System
国际金融二版
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人民币汇率制度
采用直接标价法，一般以100单位外币为标 准折算人民币
以美元为关键货币 政府授权国家外汇管理局进行汇率的制定、
调整和管理 我国现行汇率制度是以市场供求为基础的、
单一的、有管理的浮动汇率制度
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国际金融（第二版）
陈雨露 主编 中国人民大学出版社
课件制作：王 芳
中国人民大学财政金融学院
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第1章 外汇与外汇汇率
Foreign Exchange & Exchange Rate
中国人民大学财政金融学院国际金融精品课程
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教学要点
了解外汇含义和汇率标价法 掌握汇率的主要分类 学习汇率的决定与变动及其经济影响 熟悉人民币汇率制度
普遍可接受性
在国际经济往来中被各国普遍地接受和使用
可以自由兑换
能够自由地兑换成其他形式的或其他货币表示 的资产
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外汇产生的渊源
日本
汽车出口商
3. 按照约 定将日元 兑换100 万欧元
1. 对法出口价值100万欧元汽车
2. 面值为100万欧元的汇票、 支票或其他支付工具
法国 汽车进口商
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外汇(Foreign Exchange)
动态概念：一国货币兑换成另一国货币的实 践过程，用以清偿国际间的债权债务关系
静态概念：用于国际汇兑活动的支付手段和 工具
常见表述：外汇是以外币表示的，用于清偿 国际债权债务的一种支付手段
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外汇的特征
外汇是以外币表示的资产，具有可偿性
外汇买卖是债权的转移 外汇支付是完成国际间债权债务的清偿
国际金融 International Finance Test Bank_09
Chapter 9—Forecasting Exchange Rates1. Which of the following forecasting techniques would best represent the use of today's forwardexchange rate to forecast the future exchange rate?a. fundamental forecasting.b. market-based forecasting.c. technical forecasting.d. mixed forecasting.ANS: B PTS: 12. Which of the following forecasting techniques would best represent sole use of today's spot exchangerate of the euro to forecast the euro's future exchange rate?a. fundamental forecasting.b. market-based forecasting.c. technical forecasting.d. mixed forecasting.ANS: B PTS: 13. Which of the following forecasting techniques would best represent the use of relationships betweeneconomic factors and exchange rate movements to forecast the future exchange rate?a. fundamental forecasting.b. market-based forecasting.c. technical forecasting.d. mixed forecasting.ANS: A PTS: 14. Which of the following forecasting techniques would best represent the sole use of the pattern ofhistorical currency values of the euro to predict the euro's future currency value?a. fundamental forecasting.b. market-based forecasting.c. technical forecasting.d. mixed forecasting.ANS: C PTS: 15. If a particular currency is consistently declining substantially over time, then a market-based forecastwill usually have:a. underestimated the future exchange rates over time.b. overestimated the future exchange rates over time.c. forecasted future exchange rates accurately.d. forecasted future exchange rates inaccurately but without any bias toward consistentunderestimating or overestimating.ANS: B PTS: 16. According to the text, the analysis of currencies forecasted with use of the forward rate suggests that:a. currencies exhibited about the same mean forecast errors as a percent of the realized value.b. the Canadian dollar can be forecasted by U.S. firms with greater accuracy than othercurrencies.c. the Swiss franc can be forecasted by U.S. firms with greater accuracy than othercurrencies.d. none of the aboveANS: B PTS: 17. Assume the following information:Predicted Value of Realized Value ofPeriod New Zealand Dollar New Zealand Dollar1 $.52 $.502 .54 .603 .44 .404 .51 .50Given this information, the mean absolute forecast error as a percentage of the realized value is about:a. 1.5%.b. 26%.c. 6%.d. 6.5%.e. none of the aboveANS: DSOLUTION: [|$.52 - $.50|/$.50 + |$.54 - $.60|/$.60 + |$.44 - $.40|/$.40 + |$.51 -$.50|/$.50)]/4= [.04 + .10 + .10 + .02]/4= .065 = 6.50%PTS: 18. If it was determined that the movement of exchange rates was not related to previous exchange ratevalues, this implies that a ____ is not valuable for speculating on expected exchange rate movements.a. technical forecast techniqueb. fundamental forecast techniquec. all of the aboved. none of the aboveANS: A PTS: 19. Which of the following is true?a. Forecast errors cannot be negative.b. Forecast errors are negative when the forecasted rate exceeds the realized rate.c. Absolute forecast errors are negative when the forecasted rate exceeds the realized rate.d. None of the above.ANS: D PTS: 110. Which of the following is true according to the text?a. Forecasts in recent years have been very accurate.b. Use of the absolute forecast error as a percent of the realized value is a good measure touse in detecting a forecast bias.c. Forecasting errors are smaller when focused on longer term periods.d. None of the above.ANS: D PTS: 111. A fundamental forecast that uses multiple values of the influential factors is an example of:a. sensitivity analysis.b. discriminant analysis.c. technical analysis.d. factor analysis.ANS: A PTS: 112. When the value from the prior period of an influential factor affects the forecast in the future period,this is an example of a(n):a. lagged input.b. instantaneous input.c. simultaneous input.d. B and CANS: A PTS: 113. Assume a forecasting model uses inflation differentials and interest rate differentials to forecast theexchange rate. Assume the regression coefficient of the interest rate differential variable is -.5, and the coefficient of the inflation differential variable is .4. Which of the following is true?a. The interest rate variable is inversely related to the exchange rate, and the inflationvariable is directly (positively) related to the interest rate variable.b. The interest rate variable is inversely related to the exchange rate, and the inflationvariable is directly related to the exchange rate.c. The interest rate variable is directly related to the exchange rate, and the inflation variableis directly related to the exchange rate.d. The interest rate variable is directly related to the exchange rate, and the inflation variableis directly related to the interest rate variable.ANS: B PTS: 114. Which of the following is not a limitation of fundamental forecasting?a. uncertain timing of impact.b. forecasts are needed for factors that have a lagged impact.c. omission of other relevant factors from the model.d. possible change in sensitivity of the forecasted variable to each factor over time.e. none of the aboveANS: B PTS: 115. Assume that interest rate parity holds. The U.S. five-year interest rate is 5% annualized, and theMexican five-year interest rate is 8% annualized. Today's spot rate of the Mexican peso is $.20. What is the approximate five-year forecast of the peso's spot rate if the five-year forward rate is used as a forecast?a. $.131.b. $.226.c. $.262.d. $.140.e. $.174.ANS: ESOLUTION: (1.05)5/(1.08)5- 1 = -13%; $.20[1 + (-13%)] = $.174PTS: 116. Assume that the forward rate is used to forecast the spot rate. The forward rate of the Canadian dollarcontains a 6% discount. Today's spot rate of the Canadian dollar is $.80. The spot rate forecasted for one year ahead is:a. $.860.b. $.848.c. $.740.d. $.752.e. none of the aboveANS: DSOLUTION: $.80 ⨯ [1 + (-6%)] = $.752PTS: 117. If today's exchange rate reflects all relevant public information about the euro's exchange rate, but notall relevant private information, then ____ would be refuted.a. weak-form efficiencyb. semistrong-form efficiencyc. strong-form efficiencyd. A and Be. B and CANS: D PTS: 118. According to the text, research generally supports ____ in foreign exchange markets.a. weak-form efficiencyb. semistrong-form efficiencyc. strong-form efficiencyd. A and Be. B and CANS: D PTS: 119. Assume that the U.S. interest rate is 11 percent, while Australia's one-year interest rate is 12 percent.Assume interest rate parity holds. If the one-year forward rate of the Australian dollar was used to forecast the future spot rate, the forecast would reflect an expectation of:a. depreciation in the Australian dollar's value over the next year.b. appreciation in the Australian dollar's value over the next year.c. no change in the Australian dollar's value over the next year.d. information on future interest rates is needed to answer this question.ANS: A PTS: 120. If the forward rate was expected to be an unbiased estimate of the future spot rate, and interest rateparity holds, then:a. covered interest arbitrage is feasible.b. the international Fisher effect (IFE) is supported.c. the international Fisher effect (IFE) is refuted.d. the average absolute error from forecasting would equal zero.ANS: B PTS: 121. Which of the following is not a forecasting technique mentioned in your text?a. accounting-based forecasting.b. technical forecasting.c. fundamental forecasting.d. market-based forecasting.ANS: A PTS: 122. The following regression model was estimated to forecast the value of the Malaysian ringgit (MYR):MYR t = a0 + a1INC t- 1 + a2INF t- 1 + μt,where MYR is the quarterly change in the ringgit, INF is the previous quarterly percentage change in the inflation differential, and INC is the previous quarterly percentage change in the income growth differential. Regression results indicate coefficients of a0 = .005; a1 = .4; and a2 = .7. The most recent quarterly percentage change in the inflation differential is -5%, while the most recent quarterlypercentage change in the income differential is 3%. Using this information, the forecast for thepercentage change in the ringgit is:a. 4.60%.b. -1.80%.c. 5.2%.d. -4.60%.e. none of the aboveANS: BSOLUTION: MYR t = .005 + (.4)(.03) + (.7)(-.05) = -1.80%PTS: 123. The following regression model was estimated to forecast the value of the Indian rupee (INR):INR t = a0 + a1INT t + a2INF t- 1 + μt,where INR is the quarterly change in the rupee, INT is the real interest rate differential in period t between the U.S. and India, and INF is the inflation rate differential between the U.S. and India in the previous period. Regression results indicate coefficients of a0 = .003; a1 = -.5; and a2 = .8. Assume that INF t - 1 = 2%. However, the interest rate differential is not known at the beginning of period t and must be estimated. You have developed the following probability distribution:Probability Possible Outcome30% -2%40% -3%30% -4%The expected change in the Indian rupee in period t is:a. 3.40%.b. 0.40%.c. 3.10%.d. 1.70%.e. none of the aboveANS: ASOLUTION: E[INT t] = (-.02)(.3) + (-.03)(.4) + (-.04)(.3) = -3.00%INR t = .003 + (-.5)(-.03) + (.8)(.02) = 3.40%PTS: 124. Huge Corporation has just initiated a market-based forecast system using the forward rate as anestimate of the future spot rate of the Japanese yen (¥) and the Australian dollar (A$). Listed below are the forecasted and realized values for the last period:Currency Forecasted Value Realized ValueAustralian dollar $.60 $.55Japanese yen $.0067 $.0069According to this information and using the absolute forecast error as a percentage of the realized value, the forecast of the yen by Huge Corp. is ____ the forecast of the Australian dollar.a. more accurate thanb. less accurate thanc. more biased thand. the same asANS: ASOLUTION: Absolute forecast error for the Australian dollar = (|.60 - .55|)/.55 = 9.09%Absolute forecast error for the Japanese yen = (|.0067 - .0069|)/.0069 =2.90%Therefore, Huge Corp. has estimated the Japanese yen more accurately byapproximately 6.19%.PTS: 125. Gamma Corporation has incurred large losses over the last ten years due to exchange rate fluctuationsof the Egyptian pound (EGP), even though the company has used a market-based forecast based on the forward rate. Consequently, management believes its forecasts to be biased. The following regression model was estimated to determine if the forecasts over the last ten years were biased:S t = a0 + a1F t -1 + μt,where S t is the spot rate of the pound in year t and F t- 1 is the forward rate of the pound in year t -1.Regression results reveal coefficients of a0 = 0 and a1 = 1.3. Thus, Gamma has reason to believe that its past forecasts have ____ the realized spot rate.a. overestimatedb. underestimatedc. correctly estimatedd. none of the aboveANS: B PTS: 126. Which of the following is not a method of forecasting exchange rate volatility?a. using the absolute forecast error as a percentage of the realized value.b. using the volatility of historical exchange rate movements as a forecast for the future.c. using a time series of volatility patterns in previous periods.d. deriving the exchange rate's implied standard deviation from the currency option pricingmodel.ANS: A PTS: 127. If a foreign currency is expected to ____ substantially against the parent's currency, the parent mayprefer to ____ the remittance of subsidiary earnings.a. weaken; delayb. weaken; expeditec. appreciate; expedited. none of the aboveANS: B PTS: 128. If an MNC invests excess cash in a foreign county, it would like the foreign currency to ____; if anMNC issues bonds denominated in a foreign currency, it would like the foreign currency to ____.a. appreciate; depreciateb. appreciate; appreciatec. depreciate; depreciated. depreciate; appreciateANS: A PTS: 129. Severus Co. has to pay 5 million Canadian dollars for supplies it recently received from Canada.Today, the Canadian dollar has appreciated by 2 percent against the U.S. dollar. Severus hasdetermined that whenever the Canadian dollar appreciates against the U.S. dollar by more than 1percent, it experiences a reversal of 40 percent on the following day. Based on this information, the Canadian dollar is expected to ____ tomorrow, and Severus would prefer to make payment ____.a. depreciate by .8%; todayb. depreciate by .8%; tomorrowc. appreciate by .8%; todayd. appreciate by .8%; tomorrowANS: BSOLUTION: e t +1 = (2%) ⨯ (-40%) = -0.8%PTS: 130. Corporations tend to make only limited use of technical forecasting because it typically focuses on thenear future, which is not very helpful for developing corporate policies.a. Trueb. FalseANS: T PTS: 131. Sulsa Inc. uses fundamental forecasting. Using regression analysis, it has determined the followingequation for the euro:euro t = b0 + b1INF t- 1 + b2INC t- 1= .005 + .9INF t- 1 + 1.1INC t- 1The most recent quarterly percentage change in the inflation differential between the U.S. and Europe was 2 percent, while the most recent quarterly percentage change in the income growth differential between the U.S. and Europe was -1 percent. Based on this information, the forecast for the euro is a(n) ____ of ____%.a. appreciation; 3.4b. depreciation; 3.4c. appreciation; 0.7d. appreciation; 1.2ANS: DSOLUTION: euro t = .005 + .9(.02) + 1.1(-.01) = 1.2%PTS: 132. The U.S. inflation rate is expected to be 4 percent over the next year, while the European inflation rateis expected to be 3 percent. The current spot rate of the euro is $1.03. Using purchasing power parity, the expected spot rate at the end of one year is $____.a. 1.02b. 1.03c. 1.04d. none of the aboveANS: CSOLUTION:E(S t + 1) = $1.03(1.0097) = $1.04PTS: 133. If the one-year forward rate for the euro is $1.07, while the current spot rate is $1.05, the expectedpercentage change in the euro is ____%.a. 1.90b. 2.00c. -1.87d. none of the aboveANS: ASOLUTION: E(e) = 1.07/1.05 - 1 = 1.90%PTS: 134. If both interest rate parity and the international Fisher effect hold, then between the forward rate andthe spot rate, the ____ rate should provide more accurate forecasts for currencies in ____-inflation countries.a. spot; highb. spot; lowc. forward; highd. forward; lowANS: C PTS: 135. If a foreign country's interest rate is similar to the U.S. rate, the forward rate premium or discount willbe ____, meaning that the forward rate and spot rate will provide ____ forecasts.a. substantial; similarb. substantial; very differentc. close to zero; similard. close to zero; very differentANS: C PTS: 136. Factors such as economic growth, inflation, and interest rates are an integral part of ____ forecasting.a. technicalb. fundamentalc. market-basedd. none of the aboveANS: B PTS: 137. Silicon Co. has forecasted the Canadian dollar for the most recent period to be $0.73. The realizedvalue of the Canadian dollar in the most recent period was $0.80. Thus, the absolute forecast error as a percentage of the realized value was ____%.a. 9.6b. -9.6c. 8.8d. -8.8ANS: CSOLUTION:PTS: 138. The absolute forecast error of a currency is ____, on average, in periods when the currency is more____.a. lower; volatileb. higher; stablec. lower; stabled. none of the aboveANS: C PTS: 139. If the foreign exchange market is ____ efficient, then historical and current exchange rate informationis not useful for forecasting exchange rate movements.a. weak-formb. semistrong-formc. strong formd. all of the aboveANS: D PTS: 140. Foreign exchange markets are generally found to be at least ____ efficient.a. weak-formb. semistrong-formc. strong formd. none of the aboveANS: B PTS: 141. MNCs can forecast exchange rate volatility to determine the potential range surrounding theirexchange rate forecast.a. Trueb. FalseANS: T PTS: 142. If the pattern of currency values over time appears random, then technical forecasting is appropriate.a. Trueb. FalseANS: F PTS: 143. Inflation and interest rate differentials between the U.S. and foreign countries are examples ofvariables that could be used in fundamental forecasting.a. Trueb. FalseANS: T PTS: 144. A regression analysis of the Australian dollar value on the inflation differential between the U.S. andAustralia produced a coefficient of .8. Thus, for every 1% increase in the inflation differential, the Australian dollar is expected to depreciate by .8%.a. Trueb. FalseANS: F PTS: 145. The most sophisticated forecasting techniques provide consistently accurate forecasts.a. Trueb. FalseANS: F PTS: 146. If the forward rate is used as an indicator of the future spot rate, the spot rate is expected to appreciateor depreciate by the same amount as the forward premium or discount, respectively.a. Trueb. FalseANS: T PTS: 147. Research indicates that currency forecasting services almost always outperform forecasts based on theforward rate.a. Trueb. FalseANS: F PTS: 148. When measuring forecast performance of different currencies, it is often useful to adjust for theirrelative sizes. Thus, percentages, rather than nominal amounts, are often used to compute forecast errors.a. Trueb. FalseANS: T PTS: 149. The closer graphical points are to the perfect forecast line, the better is the forecast.a. Trueb. FalseANS: T PTS: 150. Foreign exchange markets appear to be strong-form efficient.a. Trueb. FalseANS: F PTS: 151. A motivation for forecasting exchange rate volatility is to obtain a range surrounding the forecast.a. Trueb. FalseANS: T PTS: 152. Two methods to assess exchange rate volatility are the volatility of historical exchange ratemovements and the exchange rate's implied standard deviation from the currency option pricingmodel.a. Trueb. FalseANS: T PTS: 153. Market-based forecasting involves the use of historical exchange rate data to predict future values.a. Trueb. FalseANS: F PTS: 154. Fundamental models examine moving averages over time and thus allow the development of aforecasting rule.a. Trueb. FalseANS: F PTS: 155. A forecasting technique based on fundamental relationships between economic variables and exchangerates, such as inflation, is referred to as technical forecasting.a. Trueb. FalseANS: F PTS: 156. Usually, fundamental forecasting is used for short-term forecasts, while technical forecasting is usedfor longer-term forecasts.a. Trueb. FalseANS: F PTS: 157. If points are scattered evenly on both sides of the perfect forecast line, then the forecast appears to bevery accurate.a. Trueb. FalseANS: F PTS: 158. If foreign exchange markets are strong-form efficient, then all relevant public and private informationis already reflected in today's exchange rates.a. Trueb. FalseANS: T PTS: 159. Exchange rates one year in advance are typically forecasted with almost perfect accuracy for the majorcurrencies, but not for currencies of smaller countries.a. Trueb. FalseANS: F PTS: 160. The potential forecast error is larger for currencies that are more volatile.a. Trueb. FalseANS: T PTS: 161. A forecast of a currency one year in advance is typically more accurate than a forecast one week inadvance since the currency reverts to equilibrium over a longer term period.a. Trueb. FalseANS: F PTS: 162. In general, any key managerial decision that is based on forecasted exchange rates should relycompletely on one forecast rather than alternative exchange rate scenarios.a. Trueb. FalseANS: F PTS: 163. Monson Co., based in the U.S., exports products to Japan denominated in yen. If the forecasted valueof the yen is substantially ____ than the forward rate, Monson Co. will likely decide ____ thepayments.a. higher; to hedgeb. lower; not to hedgec. higher; not to hedged. none of the aboveANS: C PTS: 164. When a U.S.-based MNC wants to determine whether to establish a subsidiary in a foreign country, itwill always accept that project if the foreign currency is expected to appreciate.a. Trueb. FalseANS: F PTS: 165. The following is not a limitation of technical forecasting:a. It's not suitable for long-term forecasts of exchange rates.b. It doesn't provide point estimates or a range of possible future values.c. It cannot be applied to currencies that exhibit random movements.d. It cannot be applied to currencies that exhibit a continuous trend for short-term forecast.ANS: D PTS: 166. The following regression model was estimated to forecast the percentage change in the AustralianDollar (AUD):AUD t = a0 + a1INT t + a2INF t- 1 + μt,where AUD is the quarterly change in the Australian Dollar, INT is the real interest rate differential in period t between the U.S. and Australia, and INF is the inflation rate differential between the U.S. and Australia in the previous period. Regression results indicate coefficients of a0 = .001; a1 = -.8; and a2 = .5. Assume that INF t- 1 = 4%. However, the interest rate differential is not known at the beginning of period t and must be estimated. You have developed the following probability distribution:Probability Possible Outcome20% -3%80% -4%There is a 20% probability that the Australian dollar will change by ____, and an 80% probability it will change by ____.a. 4.5%; 6.1%;b. 6.1%; 4.5%c. 4.5%; 5.3%d. None of the aboveANS: CSOLUTION: Probability 20% = .001 + (-.8)(-.03) + (.5)(.04) = 4.5%Probability 80% = .001 + (-.8)(-.04) + (.5)(.04) = 5.3%PTS: 167. Purchasing power parity is used in:a. technical forecasting.b. fundamental forecasting.c. market-based accounting.d. all of the above.ANS: B PTS: 168. If speculators expect the spot rate of the yen in 60 days to be ____ than the 60-day forward rate on theyen, they will ____ the yen forward and put ____ pressure on the yen's forward rate.a. higher; buy; upwardb. higher; sell; downwardc. higher; sell; upwardd. lower; buy; upwardANS: A PTS: 169. If speculators expect the spot rate of the Canadian dollar in 30 days to be ____ than the 30-day forwardrate on Canadian dollars, they will ____ Canadian dollars forward and put ____ pressure on theCanadian dollar forward rate.a. lower; sell; upwardb. lower; sell; downwardc. higher; sell; upwardd. higher; sell; downwardANS: B PTS: 170. Assume that U.S. annual inflation equals 8%, while Japanese annual inflation equals 5%. If purchasingpower parity is used to forecast the future spot rate, the forecast would reflect an expectation of:a. appreciation of yen's value over the next year.b. depreciation of yen's value over the next year.c. no change in yen's value over the next year.d. information about interest rates is needed to answer this question.ANS: A PTS: 171. Assume that U.S. interest rates are 6%, while British interest rates are 7%. If the international Fishereffect holds and is used to determine the future spot rate, the forecast would reflect an expectation of:a. appreciation of pound's value over the next year.b. depreciation of pound's value over the next year.c. no change in pound's value over the next year.d. not enough information to answer this question.ANS: B PTS: 172. If the foreign exchange market is ____ efficient, then technical analysis is not useful in forecastingexchange rate movements.a. weak-formb. semistrong-formc. strong formd. all of the aboveANS: D PTS: 173. If today's exchange rate reflects any historical trends in Canadian dollar exchange rate movements, butnot all relevant public information, then the Canadian dollar market is:a. weak-form efficient.b. semistrong-form efficient.c. strong-form efficient.d. all of the above.ANS: A PTS: 174. Leila Corporation used the following regression model to determine if the forecasts over the last tenyears were biased:S t = a0 + a1F t- 1 + μt,where S t is the spot rate of the yen in year t and F t- 1 is the forward rate of the yen in year t -1.Regression results reveal coefficients of a0 = 0 and a1 = .30. Thus, Leila Corporation has reason to believe that its past forecasts have ____ the realized spot rate.a. overestimatedb. underestimatedc. correctly estimatedd. none of the aboveANS: A PTS: 175. Assume that U.S. interest rate for the next three years is 5%, 6%, and 7% respectively. Also assumethat Canadian interest rates for the next three years are 3%, 6%, 9%. The current Canadian spot rate is $.840. What is the approximate three-year forecast of Canadian dollar spot rate if the three-yearforward rate is used as a forecast?a. $.840b. $.890c. $.856d. $.854ANS: CSOLUTION: {[(1.05)(1.06)(1.07)]/[(1.03)(1.05)(1.08)]} ⨯ $.84 = $.856PTS: 176. Which of the following is not one of the major reasons for MNCs to forecast exchange rates?a. to decide in which foreign market to invest the excess cash.b. to decide where to borrow at the lowest cost.c. to determine whether to require the subsidiary to remit the funds or invest them locally.d. to speculate on the exchange rate movements.ANS: D PTS: 177. Sensitivity analysis allows for all of the following except:a. accountability for uncertainty.b. focus on a single point estimate of future exchange rates.c. development of a range of possible future values.d. consideration of alternative scenarios.ANS: B PTS: 178. If graphical points lie above the perfect forecast line, than the forecast overestimated the future value.a. Trueb. FalseANS: F PTS: 179. A regression model was applied to explain movements in the Canadian dollar's value over time. Thecoefficient for the inflation differential between the U.S. and Canada was -0.2. The coefficient of the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Canada produced a coefficient of 0.8. Thus, theCanadian dollar depreciates when the inflation differential ____ and the interest rate differential ____.a. increases; increasesb. decreases; increasesc. increases; decreasesd. increases; decreasesANS: C PTS: 180. If the pattern of currency values over time appears random, then technical forecasting is appropriate.a. Trueb. FalseANS: F PTS: 181. Market-based forecasting is based on fundamental relationships between economic variables andexchange rates.。
国际金融课件internationalfinance
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中国国际金融的实践与展望
中国国际金融业在规模和业务范围上不断扩大，成为全球金融市场的重要参与者。
中国国际金融业在推动经济增长、促进国际贸易和投资等方面发挥了重要作用。
改革开放以来，中国国际金融业经历了从无到有、从小到大的发展历程，逐步建立起较为完善的金融机构体系和金融市场体系。
中国国际金融的发展历程与现状
Global financial markets facilitate the flow of capital across borders, allowing for the efficient allocation of resources and the hedging of risks.
Regional financial markets serve specific geographical regions and are often associated with trade blocs or economic unions.
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国际金融危机的定义
由于国际金融市场上的过度投机、金融监管缺失等原因，导致国际金融市场出现大规模动荡，影响各国经济的稳定。
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国际金融危机的传染机制
通过贸易、金融和信息等渠道，将危机从一个国家传递到另一个国家。
国际金融危机及其传染机制
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通过监测和分析国际金融市场的相关信息，及时发现潜在的风险点，采取应对措施。
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Main International Financial Centers and Their Characteristics 主要国际金融中心及其特点
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国际金融中英文版答案)
国际金融中英文版Chapter 2:Payments among NationsSingle-Choice QuestionsA country’s balance of payments records: 一个国家的国际收支平衡记录了 BThe value of all exports of goods and services from that country for a period of time.All flows of value between that country’s residents and residents of the rest of the world during a period of time.在一定时间段里,一个国家居民的资产和其它世界居民资产的流动All flows of financial assets that cross that country’s borders during a perio d of time.All flows of goods into that country during a period of time.A credit item in the balance of payments is: 在国际收支平衡里的贷项是AAn item for which the country must be paid.一个国家必须收取的条款An item for which the country must pay.Any imported item.An item that creates a monetary claim owed to a foreigner.Every international exchange of value is entered into the balance-of-payments accounts __________ time(s). 每一次国际等价交换都记进国际收支帐户２次B1234A debit item in the balance of payments is: 在国际收支平衡中的借项是BAn item for which the country must be paid.An item for which the country must pay.一个国家必须支付的条款Any exported item.An item that creates a monetary claim on a foreigner.In a nation's balance of payments, which one of the following items is always recorded as a positive entry? D在国际收支中,下列哪个项目总被视为有利条项Changes in foreign currency reserves.Imports of goods and services.Military foreign aid supplied to allied nations.Purchases by foreign travelers visiting the country.国外游客在本国发生的购买The sum of all of the debit items in the balance of payments: 在收支平衡中,所有贷项的总和 BEquals the overall balance.Equals the sum of all credit items.等于所有借项的总和Equals the sum of credit items minus errors and omissions.Which of the following capital transactions are entered as debits in the U.S. balance of payments? 下列哪个资本交易在美国的收支平衡中当作借项？ BA U.S. resident transfers $100 from his account at Credit Suisse in Basel (Switzerland) to his account at a San Francisco branch of Wells Fargo Bank.A French resident transfers $100 from his account at Wells Fargo Bank in San Francisco to his Credit Suisse account in Basel.一个法国居民在旧金山的Fargo Bank用其帐户转帐１００美金到位于巴塞尔的瑞士信贷户口A U.S. resident sells his IBM stock to a French resident.A U.S. resident sells his Credit Suisse stock to a French resident.An increase in a nation's financial liabilities to foreign residents is a: 一个国家对另一个国家金融负债的增加是一种CReserve inflow.Reserve outflow.Capital inflow.资本流入Capital outflow.___A_______ are money-like assets that are held by governments and that are recognized by governments as fully acceptable for payments between them. 官方国际储备资产是一种类似于钱的资产，这种资产由政府掌握并作为政府间的一种支付手段得到充分认可.Official international reserve assets 官方国际储备资产Unofficial international reserve assetsOfficial domestic reserve assetsUnofficial domestic reserve assetsWhich of the following is considered a capital inflow? 下列哪项被视为资本流入 AA sale of U.S. financial assets to a foreign buyer.美国一金融资产卖给一外国买家A loan from a U.S. bank to a foreign borrower.A purchase of foreign financial assets by a U.S. buyer.A U.S. citizen’s repayment of a loan from a foreign bank.In a country’s balance of payments, which of the following transactions are debits?一个国家的收支平衡表中,哪个交易属于借项？ ADomestic bank balances owned by foreigners are decreased.外国人拥有的国内银行资产的下降Foreign bank balances owned by domestic residents are decreased.Assets owned by domestic residents are sold to nonresidents.Securities are sold by domestic residents to nonresidents.The role of ___D_______ is to direct one nat ion’s savings into another nation’s investments: 资金流的作用是指导一个国家的储蓄进入到另一个国家的投资Merchandise trade flowsServices flowsCurrent account flowsCapital flows资金流Capital account.Current account.经常账目（户）Trade balance.Official reserve balance.The net value of flows of financial assets and similar claims (excluding official international reserve asset flows) is called the: 金融资产和类似的资产（官方国际储备资产流除外）的净值流叫AFinancial account.金融帐Current account.Trade balance.Official reserve balance.The financial account in the U.S. balance of payments includes: 美国国家收支表中的金融帐包括： BEverything in the current account.U.S. government payments to other countries for the use of military bases.美政府采用其它国家军事基地所需支付款项Profits that Nissan of America sends back to Japan.New U.S. investments in foreign countries.ＡU.S. resident increasing her holdings of a foreign financial asset causes a:一个美国居民增持一外国金融资产会引起DCredit in the U.S. current account.Debit in the U.S. current account.Credit in the U.S. capital account.Debit in the U.S. capital account.美国资本帐的借帐A foreign resident increasing her holdings of a U.S. financial asset causes a:一个美国居民增持本国一金融资产会引起 CCredit in the U.S. current account.Debit in the U.S. current account.Credit in the U.S. capital account.美国资本帐的贷帐Debit in the U.S. capital account.A deficit in the current account: 经常帐户中的赤字 ATends to cause a surplus in the financial account.会导致金融帐中的盈余Tends to cause a deficit in the financial account.Has no relationship to the financial account.Is the result of increasing exports and decreasing imports.In September, 2005, exports of goods from the U.S. decreased $3.3 billion to $73.4 billion, and imports of goods increased $3.8 billion to $144.5 billion. This increased the deficit in:20xx年8月,美国商品出口降低了33亿美元,共734亿美元；商品进口上升到1145亿美元,上长了38亿.这样增加了哪个方面的赤字？CThe balance of payments.The financial account.The current account.经常帐户Unilateral transfers.Which of the following would contribute to a U.S. current account surplus? 以下哪项有助于美国现金帐的盈余？ BThe United States makes a unilateral tariff reduction on imported goods.The United States cuts back on American military personnel stationed in Japan.美国削减在日本的军事人员U.S. tourists travel in large numbers to Asia.Which of the following transactions is recorded in the financial account?以下哪个交易会被当作金融帐AA Chinese businessman imports Ford automobiles from the United States.A U.S. tourist spends money on a trip to China.The New York Yankees are paid $10 million by the Chinese to play an exhibition game in Beijing, China.If a British business buys U.S. government securities, how will this be entered in the balance of payments? 如果一英国商人购买了美国政府的债券,那么这个交易在收支平衡表中会被当作是？ CIt will appear in the trade account as an import.It will appear in the trade account as an export.It will appear in the financial account as an increase in U.S. assets held by foreigners.会被当作是外国人所有的美国资产增长It will appear in the financial account as a decrease in U.S. assets held by foreigners.In the balance of payments, the statistical discrepancy or error term is used to: 在收支平衡表中, 统计差异与错误项目会用来确保借帐总和跟贷帐总和一致 AEnsure that the sum of all debits matches the sum of all credits.Ensure that imports equal the value of exports.Obtain an accurate account of a balance-of-payments deficit.Obtain an accurate account of a balance-of-payments surplus.Official reserve assets are: 官方储备资产是 BThe gold holdings in the nation’s central bank.Money like assets that are held by governments and that are recognized by governments as fully acceptable for payments between them. 官方国际储备资产是一种类似于钱的资产，这种资产由政府掌握并作为政府间的一种支付手段得到充分认可Government T-bills and T-bonds.Government holdings of SDR’sGold.Special Drawing Rights.IMF Reserve Positions.Foreign Currencies.外汇（币）The net accumulation of foreign assets minus foreign liabilities is: 海外净资产的积累减去外债等于CNet official reserves.Net domestic investment.Net foreign investment.国外投资净值Net foreign deficit.A country experiencing a current account surplus: 一个国家经历经常帐户的盈余 BNeeds to borrow internationally.Is able to lend internationally.就有能力向外放贷Must also have had a surplus in its "overall" balance.The ___C_______ measures the sum of the current account balance plus the private capital account balance. 官方结算差额是指经常帐户余额的总和加上私人资本帐（B=CA+FA,FA:为非官方投资和储备）Official capital balanceUnofficial capital balanceOfficial settlements balance官方结算差额Unofficial settlements balanceIf the overall balance is in __A________, there is an accumulation of official reserve assets by the country or a decrease in foreign official reserve holdings of the country's assets. 如果综合差额处于盈余，那么会出现本国官方储备资产的积累或者国外官方储备的减少（B=CA+FA,B+OR=0，OR:官方储备金额）Surplus盈余DeficitBalanceForeign handsWhich of the following is the current account balance NOT equal to? 以下哪项不等同于现金帐 DThe difference between domestic product and domestic expenditure.The difference between national saving and domestic investment.Net foreign investment.The difference between government saving and government investment. 政府储蓄与政府投资的差值True/False QuestionsCapital inflows are debits and capital outflows are credits. 资金流入是借项，资金外流是贷项The net flow of financial assets and similar claims is the private current account balance. 金融资产和类似的资产的净值叫经常帐目余额The majority of countries' official reserves assets are now foreign exchange assets, financial assets denominated in a foreign currency that is readily acceptable in international transactions. (T)大部份官方储备资产作为以外汇资产和金融资产为命名的外币在世界上交易与流通.A country's financial account balance equals the country's net foreign investment.一个国家的金融帐差额相当于一个国家的净国外投资A country has a current account deficit if it is saving more than it is investing domestically.一个国家如果在国内的储蓄比投资要大,那么会出现经常账目赤字The official settlements balance measures the sum of the capital account balance plus the public current account balance. 官方结算差额是资金帐户余额的总额加上公共经常帐户余额A nation's international investment position shows its stock of international assets and liabilities at a moment in time. (T)一个国家的国际投资状况反映出它在特定时间里的国际资产股份以及债务情况.A nation is a borrower if its current account is in deficit during a time period. (T)在一段时间内,如果一个国家的经常帐出现赤字,那么它就是借方.A nation is a debtor if its net stock of foreign assets is positive. 如果一个国家的国外资产净储备是正数,那么它是借方（债务方）A transaction leading to a foreign resident increasing her holdings of a U.S. financial asset will be recorded as a debit on the U.S. financial account.如果一项交易引起一外国居民增持美国金融资产的股份,那么这项交易在美国金融帐中会被当作借项A credit item is an item for which a country must pay. 贷项是指一个国家必须还款的条项Gold is a major reserve asset that is currently often used in official reserve transactions. 黄金作为主要的储备资产,常被用在官方储备交易当中.The current account balance is equal to the difference between domestic product and national expenditure.(T)经常项目余额等于国民生产与国民支出的差额In 2007 U.S. households, businesses and government were buying more goods and services than they were producing.(T)____年,美国家庭,商业,政府购买的商品和服务比他们生产（商品和服务）的要多.6。
国际金融英文版(全)
International financial markets
Eurocurrency markets International debts markets-long-term global bonds/foreign bonds/eurobonds/special types of bonds Short-and medium-term debt markets Euro-commercial paper and euro-medium-term notes/floating rate euro-notes International equities
Non-bank financial institutions in global finance International financial markets International derivatives exchange-traded International non-exchange traded derivatives
the balance of payment
3.the theories of foreign exchange rate determination 4.foreign exchange exposure
4.nonexchange traded derivatives
Inventory of international financial resources Yu feng yao
Foreign bonds-foreign bonds are issued in local market by a foreign borrower,with the assistance of a large investment bankers,and are denominated in a local currency. Eurobonds-eurobonds are financed by long-term funds in the Eurocurrency markets.They are underwritten by a multinational syndicate of banks and placed in countries other than the one in whose currency they are denominated.
国际贸易与金融II(双语)课程国际金融1
FIGURE 10.1 International payments process
15
Balance-of-Payments Structure
Current account of the balance of payments
Monetary value of international flows:
residents
9
Double-Entry Accounting
U.S. debit transaction (-)
Merchandise imports Transportation and travel expenditures Income paid on the investments of foreigners Gifts to foreign residents Aid given by the U.S. government Overseas investment by U.S. residents
Deficit
Balance on a sub-account (sub-accounts) is negative
13
International payments process
In theory
Importers in a country pay the exporters in that same country in the national currency
Payments（Chapter 5） Exchange-Rate Systems and Currency Crises（Chapter 6） Macroeconomic Policy in an Open Economy （Chapter 7） International Banking: Reserves, Debt and Risk
国际金融(英文版第二版)Chapter 1 Balance of Payment
The difference between direct investment and portfolio investment revolves around whether or not the investor intends to take an active role in the management of the enterprise the assets of which are being acquired
Chapter 1 Balance of payments
1.1 International transactions: the balance of payments
The
balance of payments is the record of the economics and financial flows that take place over a specified time period between residents and non-residents of a given country.
The current account
The
trade balance
services
The trade balance comprises merchandise exports and impocial services include such things as freight, insurance, passenger services and travel.
Table 1.1 Standard components of the balance of payments
Current
account Exports fob - Imports fob = Trade balance + Exports of non-financial services - Imports of non-financial services + Investment income (credit) - Investment income (debit) +(-) Private unrequited transfers +(-) Official unrequited transfers = Current account balance Capital account +(-) Direct investment +(-) Portfolio investment +(-) Other long-term capital +(-) Other short-term capital +(-) Net errors and omissions +(-) Counterpart items +(-) Total change in reserves = Capital account balance
国际金融英文版习题chapter2
1International FinanceAssignment Problems (2) Name: Student No.:I. Choose the correct answer for the following questions (only ONE correct answer)(5 credits for each question, total credits 4 x 15 = 60)1. According to the principle of the balanced balance of payments, if a country reduces its foreign exchange reserves by $20 million and the statistical discrepancy is in the credit entry of $5 million in a given period of time, the country runs __________ of its balance of payments during that period of time.A. $15 million deficitsB. $25 million deficitsC. $20 million deficitsD. $5 million deficits2. If a country’s domestic saving is greater than domestic investment, the country probably has __________.A. a current account surplusB. a net capital outflowC. a current account deficitD. Both A and B are possible.3. A debit entry in the balance-of-payments account represents a transaction that __________.A. a domestic resident receives a payment from abroadB. a domestic resident makes a payment to a foreign residentC. will improve the current account statusD. will have no affects on the nation’s foreign exchange reserves4. In terms of balance-of-payments account, which of the following would be recorded as a debit entry in the U.S. BOP?A. exports of merchandiseB. exports of servicesC. purchase of the U.S. Treasury bonds by non-residentsD. an increase of the deposit in a U.S. resident's account at a foreign bank5. A balance-of-payments deficit is defined as a situation in which __________.A. the value of payments made to the foreigners exceeds the value of receipts received from the foreigners in a given period of timeB. the government must borrow in order to meet its budget obligationsC. the value of manufactured good exports is less than the value of imported goodsD. a nation earns much in extra assets or reduced liabilities in its dealings with the rest of the world6. Which of the following would NOT be considered as a typical BOP transaction?A. Toyota USA is a US distributor of automobiles manufactured in Japan by its parent company.B. A U.S. subsidiary of European financial giant, Credit Suisse, pays dividends to its parent in Zurich.C. A US tourist purchases gifts at a museum in London.D. All are example of BOP transactions.7. The balance of payments is a statistical record which measures the total value of __________.A. a country’s foreign exchange reserves in a certain period of timeB. a country’s foreign trades between the residents of a country and its non-residents for a given period of timeC. all economic and financial transactions between the residents of a country and its non-residents for a given period of timeD. a country’s capital inflows and outflows at a particular date in a given year8. A British pension fund sells some of its holdings of the stocks of U.S. companies in order to buy U.S. corporate bonds. This transaction will affect __________.A. the U.S. international investment positionB. the British international investment positionC. both countries’ international investment positionD. None of the above. This is because both countries’ international investment position unchanged, only the composition of foreign investments in both U.S. and U.K. changes.9. Which of the following transactions is included in China’s balance-of-payments account?A. A U.S. embassy in Beijing pays salaries to its American staffs.B. The World Bank furnishes the Chinese government with a loan.C. A U.S. student pays tuition fees for his 4 year-study in Beijing University.D. The Chinese embassy in Washington buys telecommunication equipments from a Chinese company in Shanghai.10. If the U.S. runs current account deficits, we can expect that __________.A. it may act as a net debtor in the rest of the worldB. its domestic saving may less than its domestic investmentC. its domestic production is less than its domestic consumptionD. all of the above11. The trade deficit means that __________.A. residents are importing more goods than they are exportingB. residents are borrowing more funds than they are lendingC. residents are receiving more payments than they are makingD. residents are producing more goods than they are consuming12. Which of the following is an example of an exchange of financial assets?A. the exchange of butter for wheatB. the exchange of information technologyC. the exchange of a fixed-rate loan for a floating-rate loanD. the exchange of gold for jewelry13. For most countries, the subcategory that typically dominates the current account is __________.A. unilateral transfersB. goods tradeC. income tradeD. services trade14. When categorizing investments for the financial account component of the balance of payments the __________ is an investment where the investor has no incentive to control whereas the __________ is an investment where the investor wants to control over the assets.A. direct investment, portfolio investmentB. direct investment, indirect investmentC. portfolio investment, indirect investmentD. portfolio investment, direct investment15. If a country’s merchandise exports exceed its imports by $50 million, services trade balance is net $30 million and unilateral transfers made in excess of those received by $5 million, what is the country’s current account balance?A. $85 millionB. $75 millionC. $15 millionD. $25 million1. Country A’s BOT is __________.2. Country A’s current account balance is __________.3. Suppose the changes in country A’s official reserves are zero in 2010, its capital and financial account balance MUST be __________.4. If country A’s official reserves are recorded on the credit side by $10 million in 2010, its capital and financial account balance should be __________.5. Based on the assumption of question 4, country A has BOP deficit or surplus in 2010? Explain.6. What is the current account balance of a nation with a government budget deficit of $128 billion, private saving of $806 billion, and domestic capital formation of $777 billion?III. Express the following operations in the Dutch balance of payments in T-accounts:(5 credits for each question, total credits 3 x 5 = 15)a. A Dutch company exports €100,000 goods to a London company for €100,000 in bank deposits.b. An import billed for €150,000 paid with a check drawn on a London bank.c. A Dutch company based in Rotterdam uses €1 million that it was holding in a short-term deposit with its Rotterdam bank to purchase 10-year bonds issued by German government.IV. True or false: (7 credits)A credit entry in the balance of payments represents a demand for local currency whereas a debit entry represents a supply of local currency. You MUST explain your answer.Part IVTrue. Because the credit entry in BOP means domestic residents receiving foreigncurrencies. When they sell those foreign payments, they demand the local currency. The debit entry in BOP implies domestic residents need to buy foreign currencies with the local currency. Therefore, it represents a supply of local currency.。
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9.3 Emerging Market and Regime Choices
Currency
Boards
Argentina
Dollarization
Ecuador
9.4 The Birth of a European Currency: The Euro
The
Maastricht Treaty
9.2 Contemporary Currency Regimes
IMF’s
Exchange Rate Regime Classifications
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1.Exchange arrangements with no separate legal tender 2.Currency board arrangements 3.Other conventional fixed peg arrangements 4.Pegged exchange rates within horizontal bands 5.Crawling pegs 6.Exchange rates within crawling pegs 7.Managed floating with no preannounced path for the exchange rate 8.Independent floating
Fixed
versus Flexible Exchange Rates
Attributes
of the “ Ideal ” Currency
1.Exchange rate stability 2.Full financial integration 3.Monetary independence
Timetable Convergence Criteria Strong Central Bank
Why The
Monetary Unification?
Launch of the Euro
Achieving
Monetary Unification
Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy Fixing the Value of the Euro Causes of the Dollar Decline Expansion of the European Union and the Euro The Euro and Growth Evaluating the Euro
9.5 Exchange Rate Regimes: What Lies Ahead?
All
exchange rate regimes must deal with the trade-off between rules and discretion, as well as between cooperation and independence.
Chapter 9 The international monetary system
9.1 History of the International Monetary System
The Gold Standard, 1876 – 1913 The Interwar Years and World War II, 1914 – 1944 Bretton Woods and the International Monetary Fund, 1944 Eurocurrencies Eurocurrency Interest Rates: LIBOR Fixed Exchange Rates, 1945 – 1973 An Eclectic Currency Arrangement, 1973 Present