Chapter 16 Output and the Exchange Rate In the Shout RunPPT课件
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ch12 Output and the Exchange Rate in the Short Run
Y)
Hale Waihona Puke 45° °Y2Y1
Y3
Output, Y
(3)Output Market Equilibrium in the Short Run: The DD Schedule
• Output, the Exchange Rate, and Output Market Equilibrium ∵ A rise in the nominal exchange rate, which q increases, makes foreign goods and services more expensive relative to domestic goods and services. ∴Any rise in q will cause an upward shift in the aggregate demand function and an expansion of output. Any fall in q will cause output to contract. E↑ (depreciation) → q↑ (depreciation) → CA improves →D↑
Relationship between q & D? q↑ (depreciation) → CA improves →D↑
? The Determination of Output
(D
Aggregate demand, D Aggregate demand = aggregate output, D = Y Aggregate demand D1 2 1 3
45° °
Y1
Y2
Output, Y
Deriving the DD Schedule
Chapter 14 Money Interest Rate and Exchange Rate
E2 E1
2’ 1’
r$ + [E(e) －E] / E 0
R2 R1 R Md/P 1 2
结论：本国货币供给增加， 结论：本国货币供给增加，MS /P 1 则本币贬值；反之， 则本币贬值；反之，本国 S 货币供给减少，本币升值。 货币供给减少，本币升值。M 2/P
Q
U.S. Supply and the Exchange Rate
Q
RMB Supply and the Exchange Rate
E=￥/$ ￥
设，P和Y不变 和 不变
– 当中国中央银行货币供给 增加到M 由MS1增加到 S2时，新的
均衡点由1到达 ， 均衡点由 到达2，此时均 到达 衡利率下降为R 衡利率下降为 2 – 随着本国利率的下降 外 随着本国利率的下降,外 汇市场的均衡点由1’到达 ， 汇市场的均衡点由 到达2’， 到达 因此均衡汇率上升为E 因此均衡汇率上升为 2
0
MS1/P1 MS2/P1 Q
R2
R$ + [E(e) －E] / E R 0 R1 Md/P MS2/P2 1 2 MS2/P1 Q
Exchange rate Overshooting
设，一国初始经济状态为：充分就业，利率为i1与国外相同， 一国初始经济状态为：充分就业，利率为 与国外相同， 货币供应量为M 国内物价P 汇率E 货币供应量为 1，国内物价 1，汇率 1。 再设，货币当局突然增加货币供应， 上升到M 再设，货币当局突然增加货币供应，使M1上升到 2， ∵长期内价格体系是弹性的 国内物价将由P 上升至P 则汇率也将由E 上升至E ∴国内物价将由 1上升至 2，则汇率也将由 1上升至 2， 即本币贬值，外币升值。 即本币贬值，外币升值。 然而，短期内由于价格呈粘性， 然而，短期内由于价格呈粘性， 商品市场价格保持不变，从而使货币的供应过剩， ∴商品市场价格保持不变，从而使货币的供应过剩，导致 国内利率由i 下降至i 国内利率由 1下降至 2， 又由于，利率平价条件有效， 又由于，利率平价条件有效， 套利将导致汇率即期上升，本币贬值，外币升值。 ∴套利将导致汇率即期上升，本币贬值，外币升值。
财务管理ppt英文课件Chapter-16.ppt
Slides prepared by Wu Xiaolan
Degree of Operating Leverage (DOL)
Degree of Operating Leverage -- The percentage change in a firm’s operating profit (EBIT) resulting from a 1 percent change in output (sales).
One potential “effect” caused by the presence of operating leverage is that a change in the volume of sales results in a “more than proportional” change in operating profit (or loss).
Copyright 2001 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
1
Fundamentals of Financial Management, 11/e by Van Horne and Wachowicz.
Slides prepared by Wu Xiaolan
Operating Leverage
Slides prepared by Wu Xiaolan
Operating Leverage
The degree of operating leverage (DOL) measures how sensitive a firm (or project) is to its fixed costs.
Operating leverage increases as fixed costs rise and variable costs fall.
财务管理ppt英文课件Chapter 16
Break-Even (Quantity) Point
Break-Even Point -- The sales volume required so that total revenues and total costs are equal; may be in units or in sales dollars.
9
Fundamentals of Financial Management, 11/e by Van Horne and Wachowicz.
Slides prepared by Wu Xiaolan
Interpretation of the DOL
DEGREE OF OPERATING LEVERAGE (DOL)
QUANTITY PRODUCED AND SOLD
Copyright 2001 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
5
Fundamentals of Financial Management, 11/e by Van Horne and Wachowicz.
Slides prepared by Wu Xiaolan
Percentage change in output (or sales)
D EBIT
=
EBIT DQ
Q
Copyright 2001 Prentice-Hall, Inc.
7
Fundamentals of Financial Management, 11/e by Van Horne and Wachowicz.
Breakeven occurs when EBIT = 0
Q (P - V) - FC
= EBIT
Money, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates 国际金融英文课件
For a given level of income, real money demand decreases as the interest rate increases.
Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.
14-13
Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.
14-9
What Influences Aggregate Demand for Money?
1. Interest rates: money pays little or no interest, so the interest rate is the opportunity cost of holding money instead of other assets, like bonds, which have a higher expected return/interest rate.
Aggregate real money demand is a function of national income and interest rates.
Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved.
14-12
A Model of Aggregate Money Demand (cont.)
14-10
What Influences Aggregate Demand for Money? (cont.)
3. Income: greater income implies more goods and services can be bought, so that more money is needed to conduct transactions.
ch15 Price Levels and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run
• The Fundamental Equation of the Monetary Approach
– Price levels can be expressed in terms of domestic money demand and supplies:
• In the United States: PUS = MsUS/ L (R$, YUS)
• Interest rates
– A rise in the interest rate on dollar (euro) denominated assets causes a depreciation (appreciation) of the dollar against the euro.
United States and Europe would be:
(E$/€ ,t - E$/€, t –1)/E$/€, t –1 = US, t - E, t (15-2)..\..\中国的名义和实际.ppt
2020/7/3
10
以相对购买力平价估值人民币汇率
资料来源：中国国研网
2020/7/3
• This law applies only in competitive markets free of transport costs and official barriers to trade.
– Example: If the dollar/pound exchange rate is $1.50 per pound, a sweater that sells for $45 in New York must sell for £30 in London.
– If the law of one price holds true for every commodity, PPP must hold automatically for the same reference baskets across countries.
Chapter 15 Price Levels and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run 国际财务管理课件
Relative PPP between the United States and Europe would be:
(E$/€,t - E$/€, t –1)/E$/€, t –1 = US, t - E, t
where:
t = inflation rate
(15-2)
7
Exercise
Suppose U.S. inflation rate is 10 percent over one year , but the inflation rate in European is only 5 percent. According to relative PPP, what should happen over the year to the U.S.’s dollar exchange rate against the euro?
The Fundamental Equation of the Monetary Approach
– Price levels can be expressed in terms of domestic money demand and supplies:
In the United States:
13
Figure 15-1: Long-Run Time Paths of U.S. Economic Variables after a Permanent Increase in the Growth Rate of the U.S. Money Supply
(a) U.S. money supply, MUS
Empirical Evidence on PPP and the Law of One Price
国际经济学：理论与政策(第十一版)英文版课件C17_Krugman_11e
Copyright © 2018, 2015, 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Figure 17.1 Aggregate Demand as a Function of Output
• However, evidence indicates that for most countries the volume effect dominates the value effect after one year or less.
• Let’s assume for now that a real depreciation leads to an increase in the current account: the volume effect dominates the value effect.
Copyright © 2018, 2015, 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Determinants of Agregate Demand (1 of 3)
• Aggregate demand is the aggregate amount of goods and services that individuals and institutions are willing to buy: 1. consumption expenditure 2. investment expenditure 3. government purchases 4. net expenditure by foreigners: the current account
Learning Objectives (1 of 2)
Figure 17.1 Aggregate Demand as a Function of Output
• However, evidence indicates that for most countries the volume effect dominates the value effect after one year or less.
• Let’s assume for now that a real depreciation leads to an increase in the current account: the volume effect dominates the value effect.
Copyright © 2018, 2015, 2012 Pearson Education, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Determinants of Agregate Demand (1 of 3)
• Aggregate demand is the aggregate amount of goods and services that individuals and institutions are willing to buy: 1. consumption expenditure 2. investment expenditure 3. government purchases 4. net expenditure by foreigners: the current account
Learning Objectives (1 of 2)
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三、宏观经济政策与经常项目 (Macroeconomic Policies and the Current Account)
10
the Effect of Temporary Changes in Monetary and Fiscal Policy
1、货币政策的影响 2、财政政策的影响 3、保持充分就业的政策调整
当可支配收入上升时，净出口需求则下降；可支配收入下 降时，净出口需求则上升。
因此，D=D(EP’/P，Y-T，I，G)
3
设，G和I给定时，
D 则，⑴在其他条件不变时，
本币实际贬值可刺激本国
产品的总需求；本币实际
升值则降低了本国产品的 总需求。
⑵在其他条件不变时，
国内实际收入的增加会引
起总需求的增加；实际收
2
开放经济总需求的决定
在开放经济中，D=C+I+G+(EX-IM)
– 其中，⑴C取决于可支配收入，即，C=C(Y-T)
当可支配收入增加时，消费需求上升；反之，消费需求下 降。且需求变动幅度小于收入变动幅度。
⑵EX-IM=CA，取决于实际汇率和可支配收入， 即，CA=CA(EP’/P,Y-T)
当实际汇率变动的数量效应大于价值效应时，实际汇率上 升，净出口需求上升；实际汇率下降，净出口需求下降。
– ⑸L的变动，L上升则E下降，AA曲线左移；
8
Shout Run Equilibrium For an Economy: DD—AA Schedule
开放经济的短期均衡， E
意味着产品市场和资本 市场同时达到均衡。即，
E2
均衡点必为DD曲线和 E3
AA曲线的交点。
E1
0
2 3
1
Y1
DD
AA Y
12
财政政策的影响
E
设，P、P’和R’不变
5
DD曲线 E
1、含义
产品市场均衡时产出和汇率的所有组合。
2、推导
E2
当P和P’短期内固定时,本币贬值则产出 E1 提高；本币升值则产出下降。
DD 2 1
因此DD曲线向右上倾斜。
3、影响DD曲线移动的因素
0
Y1 Y2
Y
– ⑴G的变动，G上升则D上升，DD曲线右移； – ⑵T的变动，T上升则D下降，DD曲线左移； – ⑶I的变动，I上升则D上升，DD曲线右移； – ⑷P的变动，P上升则D下降，DD曲线左移； – ⑸P’的变动，P’上升则D上升，DD曲线右移； – ⑹C(Y-T)的变动，C上升则D上升，DD曲线右移； – ⑺需求从外国向本国产品的转移，则D上升，DD曲线右移；
9
16、2 Macroeconomic Adjustment With Floating Rate System
一、货币和财政政策暂时变动的影响 (the Effect of Temporary Changes in Monetary and Fiscal Policy)
二、货币和财政政策永久性变动的影响 (the Effect of Permanent Shifts in Monetary and Fiscal Policy)
6
Asset Market Equilibrium In the
Shout Run: the AA Schedule
1、含义
E=￥/$
– 是指国内货币市场和外汇市场均 衡时产出和汇率的所有组合。
2、产出、汇率和资产市场均衡 E1
– 当外汇市场均衡时，满足利率平 E2 价条件。 即，R= R’+ [E e －E] / E 当国内货币市场达到均衡时，实
– 对国内产品世界需求的暂时减少的调节 – 对货币需求提高的调节
4、政策有效性的评价
11
货币政策的影响
E
设，P、P’和R’不变
当MS上升，则AA曲线右移，
∴汇率上升，本币贬值，同时
E2Leabharlann 生产扩大，就业上升。E1
DD
2 1
AA2 AA1
0
Y1 Y2
Y
结论：扩张性货币政策使汇率上升，本币贬值，同
时产出扩大、就业增加；紧缩性货币政策则相反。
随着本币的升值。 所以，AA曲线是一条向右下倾斜 E2
的曲线。
1 2 AA
0
Y1 Y2
Y
4、影响AA曲线移动的因素
– ⑴MS的变动，MS上升则E上升，AA曲线右移；
– ⑵P的变动，P上升则E下降，AA曲线左移；
– ⑶E e的变动，E e上升则E上升，AA曲线右移；
– ⑷R’的变动，R’上升则E上升，AA曲线右移；
二、短期内资产市场的均衡：AA曲线(Asset Market Equilibrium In the Shout Run: the AA Schedule)
三、开放经济的短期均衡：DD—AA曲线(Shout Run Equilibrium For an Economy: DD—AA Schedule)
际货币供给等于实际货币需求。 0
即， MS/ P=L(R,Y)
1’ 2’
R1 R2
结论：为保持资产市场的均衡， 在其他条件不变时，国内产出的 增加必伴随着本币升值；国内产 出的减少必伴随着本币贬值。
MS/P
12
R Md/P
Q
7
E
3、AA曲线的形状
– 当其他条件不变时，为保持资产 市场的均衡，产出的提高必须伴 E1
Chapter 16 Output and the Exchange Rate In the Shout Run
16、1 开放经济的短期均衡 (Shout Run Equilibrium For an Economy)
16、2 浮动汇率制下宏观经济的调整 (Macroeconomic Adjustment Under Floating Rate System)
入的减少会引起总需求的
0
降低，但总需求变动幅度 小于收入变动的幅度。
D <45º
Y
4
短期内的产出的决定
D
当实际产出Y等于国内产 出的总需求时，产品市场 达到均衡，因此，总供给 D1 和总需求相等决定短期均 衡产出水平。即， Y=D(EP’/P，Y-T，I，G)
0
1 2
D=Y 3D
Y2 Y1 Y3 Y
1
16、1 Shout Run Equilibrium For an Economy
一、短期产品市场均衡：DD曲线(Output Market Equilibrium In the Shout Run: the DD Schedule)
– 1、开放经济总需求的决定 – 2、短期内的产出的决定 – 3、DD曲线
10
the Effect of Temporary Changes in Monetary and Fiscal Policy
1、货币政策的影响 2、财政政策的影响 3、保持充分就业的政策调整
当可支配收入上升时，净出口需求则下降；可支配收入下 降时，净出口需求则上升。
因此，D=D(EP’/P，Y-T，I，G)
3
设，G和I给定时，
D 则，⑴在其他条件不变时，
本币实际贬值可刺激本国
产品的总需求；本币实际
升值则降低了本国产品的 总需求。
⑵在其他条件不变时，
国内实际收入的增加会引
起总需求的增加；实际收
2
开放经济总需求的决定
在开放经济中，D=C+I+G+(EX-IM)
– 其中，⑴C取决于可支配收入，即，C=C(Y-T)
当可支配收入增加时，消费需求上升；反之，消费需求下 降。且需求变动幅度小于收入变动幅度。
⑵EX-IM=CA，取决于实际汇率和可支配收入， 即，CA=CA(EP’/P,Y-T)
当实际汇率变动的数量效应大于价值效应时，实际汇率上 升，净出口需求上升；实际汇率下降，净出口需求下降。
– ⑸L的变动，L上升则E下降，AA曲线左移；
8
Shout Run Equilibrium For an Economy: DD—AA Schedule
开放经济的短期均衡， E
意味着产品市场和资本 市场同时达到均衡。即，
E2
均衡点必为DD曲线和 E3
AA曲线的交点。
E1
0
2 3
1
Y1
DD
AA Y
12
财政政策的影响
E
设，P、P’和R’不变
5
DD曲线 E
1、含义
产品市场均衡时产出和汇率的所有组合。
2、推导
E2
当P和P’短期内固定时,本币贬值则产出 E1 提高；本币升值则产出下降。
DD 2 1
因此DD曲线向右上倾斜。
3、影响DD曲线移动的因素
0
Y1 Y2
Y
– ⑴G的变动，G上升则D上升，DD曲线右移； – ⑵T的变动，T上升则D下降，DD曲线左移； – ⑶I的变动，I上升则D上升，DD曲线右移； – ⑷P的变动，P上升则D下降，DD曲线左移； – ⑸P’的变动，P’上升则D上升，DD曲线右移； – ⑹C(Y-T)的变动，C上升则D上升，DD曲线右移； – ⑺需求从外国向本国产品的转移，则D上升，DD曲线右移；
9
16、2 Macroeconomic Adjustment With Floating Rate System
一、货币和财政政策暂时变动的影响 (the Effect of Temporary Changes in Monetary and Fiscal Policy)
二、货币和财政政策永久性变动的影响 (the Effect of Permanent Shifts in Monetary and Fiscal Policy)
6
Asset Market Equilibrium In the
Shout Run: the AA Schedule
1、含义
E=￥/$
– 是指国内货币市场和外汇市场均 衡时产出和汇率的所有组合。
2、产出、汇率和资产市场均衡 E1
– 当外汇市场均衡时，满足利率平 E2 价条件。 即，R= R’+ [E e －E] / E 当国内货币市场达到均衡时，实
– 对国内产品世界需求的暂时减少的调节 – 对货币需求提高的调节
4、政策有效性的评价
11
货币政策的影响
E
设，P、P’和R’不变
当MS上升，则AA曲线右移，
∴汇率上升，本币贬值，同时
E2Leabharlann 生产扩大，就业上升。E1
DD
2 1
AA2 AA1
0
Y1 Y2
Y
结论：扩张性货币政策使汇率上升，本币贬值，同
时产出扩大、就业增加；紧缩性货币政策则相反。
随着本币的升值。 所以，AA曲线是一条向右下倾斜 E2
的曲线。
1 2 AA
0
Y1 Y2
Y
4、影响AA曲线移动的因素
– ⑴MS的变动，MS上升则E上升，AA曲线右移；
– ⑵P的变动，P上升则E下降，AA曲线左移；
– ⑶E e的变动，E e上升则E上升，AA曲线右移；
– ⑷R’的变动，R’上升则E上升，AA曲线右移；
二、短期内资产市场的均衡：AA曲线(Asset Market Equilibrium In the Shout Run: the AA Schedule)
三、开放经济的短期均衡：DD—AA曲线(Shout Run Equilibrium For an Economy: DD—AA Schedule)
际货币供给等于实际货币需求。 0
即， MS/ P=L(R,Y)
1’ 2’
R1 R2
结论：为保持资产市场的均衡， 在其他条件不变时，国内产出的 增加必伴随着本币升值；国内产 出的减少必伴随着本币贬值。
MS/P
12
R Md/P
Q
7
E
3、AA曲线的形状
– 当其他条件不变时，为保持资产 市场的均衡，产出的提高必须伴 E1
Chapter 16 Output and the Exchange Rate In the Shout Run
16、1 开放经济的短期均衡 (Shout Run Equilibrium For an Economy)
16、2 浮动汇率制下宏观经济的调整 (Macroeconomic Adjustment Under Floating Rate System)
入的减少会引起总需求的
0
降低，但总需求变动幅度 小于收入变动的幅度。
D <45º
Y
4
短期内的产出的决定
D
当实际产出Y等于国内产 出的总需求时，产品市场 达到均衡，因此，总供给 D1 和总需求相等决定短期均 衡产出水平。即， Y=D(EP’/P，Y-T，I，G)
0
1 2
D=Y 3D
Y2 Y1 Y3 Y
1
16、1 Shout Run Equilibrium For an Economy
一、短期产品市场均衡：DD曲线(Output Market Equilibrium In the Shout Run: the DD Schedule)
– 1、开放经济总需求的决定 – 2、短期内的产出的决定 – 3、DD曲线