企业管理培训 Sales Forecasting 销售预测

Sales Forecasting
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Influences of Forecast Accuracy 影響預測准确性的因素
– Other available history (i.e., new products, design changes, changes in customer base, promotional actions, economic indicators) – Including right group of people in forecast discussions: a team effort is required (Sales, • Purchasing/Supply and Manufacturing) – Discussion: Other influences on forecast accuracy
Sales Forecasting
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Benefits of Sales Forecasting 銷售預測的好處
• Factory Planning Becomes More Efficient
– Improves material planning and supplier relationships • reduces lead time and material costs – Improves management of Work in Process • lower cost and lower inventory
• 生產
– 生產計划 – 庫存控制
• Purchasing
– determination of procurement requirements – scheduling of purchases to get favorable prices
• 采購
– 确定采購需求 – 編排采購計划﹐以便 獲得更优惠的价格
Sales Forecasting
• 銷售預測就是利用掌 握的信息來盡可能地 分析未來的銷售狀況 的過程 • 銷售預測需要每個銷 售人員獨立負責﹗ • 銷售人員需确保預測 的准确性
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Why Do A Sales Forecast? 為什么要做銷售預測呢? • When done well it provides sales management with a management tool to review trends in the market, it helps track and report opportunities and ensures product availability • 如果這項工作做好了﹐它將成為銷售管理者用來展 望市場發展趨勢的有力工具﹐而且可以幫助他們跟 蹤并發現市場机會﹐從而确保公司的發展
• Accuracy of each component of demand is essential to accurate sales forecasting
– Specific Product (type, size, color, etc) – Quantity – Required Delivery Date
Sales Forecasting 銷售預測
Key Concept 主要觀點
• Sales forecasting is the process of organizing and analyzing information in a way that makes it possible to estimate future sales • Sales forecasting is the responsibility of the individual salesman • Salesman are accountable for the accuracy of their forecast
• 只有保証每個需求環節 的准确性﹐才能确保銷 售預測的准确性
– 具体產品（形式﹑尺 寸﹑顏色等） – 數量 – 送貨時間
• Accuracy can be improved by understanding factors of demand and removing uncertainty of demand
questions
• Talk with multiple sources
– Purchasing / Buyers – Planning – Sales
• 从多种渠道了解
– 采購／買家 – 計划 – 銷售
Sales Forecasting
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Ways to Reduce Uncertainty 減少預測的不确定性的方法 • Get to know the “customer’s customer” • Analyze (and question) changes in demand projections • Look at historical data on the customer and identify any demand trends • Discussion: Other ways to reduce uncertainty?
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– 其它可利用的歷史數据 （諸如﹕新產品﹑設計 變化﹑客戶群的變化﹑ 促銷計划﹑經濟指標） – 還包括要有一組人在負 責此事﹕需要一個團隊 努力去做﹗（銷售﹑采 購／供應和制造）
討論﹕還有其它因素 影響預測的准确性嗎?
Components of Demand 需求的組成因素
• Marketing
– formulation of marketing strategies for products – setting of sales quotas – scheduling of advertising expenditures and sales promotions
Sales Forecasting
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Benefits of Sales Forecasting 銷售預測的好處
• More efficient utilization of • 更有效的提高生產線的利用 workforce 率 – Lower manufacturing cost –生产成本降低 • Provides Management an • 它是銷售部門業績表現的前 Early “Snapshot” of 期寫照，能让管理预先了 Business Performance
• 影響預測准确性的因素
– 客戶提供的信息的質量 – 業務員分析客戶所提供 的信息的質量
– Quality of salesman
analysis of customer provided information
– 有可利用的產品需求歷
史紀錄
– Availability of product
demand history
• Cyclical
– wavelike fluctuation around the trend
• 周期性
– 在發展的趨勢中出現 的波浪式的波動
• Seasonal
– pattern of change that repeats itself year after year
• 季節性
– 年复一年不斷重复的 模式
• 營銷
– 制定公司的產品營銷 策略 – 設定銷售額 – 制定廣告費用計划和 促銷計划
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Use of Sales Forecasts 銷售預測的應用 • Personnel
– planning of manpower requirements
• 人事
– 編排人力資源計划
• Finance
• 工厂的計划變的更有效﹗ – 改進原料計划﹐改善与 供貨商的關系﹐
• 縮短交貨期﹐降低成本
– 改進管理的工作流程
• 低成本﹑低庫存
• 更好的控制成品庫存﹗
– 降低庫存增強盈利 – 大量的廢品成為你賺錢的 惡夢
• Better Control of Finished Goods Inventory
– Lower inventory level improves profitability – High levels of obsolete products is a profit nightmare
• Random
– not accounted for by the other components (trend, cyclical, or seasonal).
Sales Forecasting
• 隨机性
– 其它因素（除了以上提到 的因素）
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Discussion: Demand 討論: 需求問題 • Is there a “Cyclical” factor • 卫生产品的銷售是否 in Sanitary Products 有周期性因素呢﹖ sales? – 討論并舉例說明
– establishing of operating budgets – cash flow planning,capital budget / expenditure decisions
• 財務
– 制定運作費用 – 現金流計划﹑資金 預決算方案
• Top Management
– overall planning and control of operations of the company
– Right products in the right place at the right time
• 提高反饋時間和准时送貨率
–所需的產品准時送到目的地
Sales Forecasting