经济危机分析

金融学期中论文银英14-1组员：陈芳芳，李吴佳，郑敏Abstract: After learning the relative backgrounds respectively, we tried to look into the deep reasons of these three financial crisis in the history, including the Tulip Bubble happened in Dutch, the Great Depression in 1929 and Financial Crisis in 2008. We realized there are some similarities and differences during all the financial crisis, from the aspects of backgrounds, reasons, main contents and influence. We hope the experience and lessons we have got from the past can help our economy develop better.Key Words: financial crisis, stock market, government , regulation, investment, banker, value, economyThe Analysis of Three Financial CrisisAstonishing parallels can often be found in history. After watching these three documentaries about financial crisis, The Tulip Bubble, The Great Depression in 1929, and Inside Job, we gave them a thorough analysis about their backgrounds, reasons main points and impacts, to get some conclusions towards the similarities and differences.In essence, the Tulip mania in Netherlands in the 17th century is similar to the recent development of today’s financial market, as well as the great depression in 1929 and the financial crisis in 2008. At that time, Netherlands held a strategic status in the Europe with a flourishing overseas trade. Therefore, citizens lived a rich and stable life, while the nation accumulated quite much wealth. In order to express the appreciation and admiration to the God, people tried to grow the most beautiful tulip to consecrate. But as time went by, thing went out of control that people became crazier and crazier driven by interests, which led to an irrational financial market. More people threw themselves into the business knowing nothing but just following the crowd. As a result, as the quantity of demand of the tulip was much higher than the quantity of supply, theprice went higher and higher. The situation changed until one day suddenly no one wanted to buy the tulip bulbs even at a low price, which meant that the treasure people had spared no efforts to get became worthless. The panic spread quickly, especially for those people who saddled with heavy debt to join this tulip investment aim at a great profit. The earlier people got the news, the faster they sold the tulip bulbs, the smaller lost they got. From what has been mentioned above, we can see it was people’s ignorance and blind following that result to the burst of tulip bubble.As for the Great Depression in 1929, it happened after 10 years of the World War I, which brought the US large economic development and the nation better living conditions. When people tried to build stock market with a positive attitude to earn more money, they could never realize it was another source of disaster. Due to their overoptimism, more and more people bought stock even with liability, because they believed everyone could get much more from the stock market as long as he had principal. Unfortunately, nothing in life is free. The small investors never knew the truth that all their investments became the game controlled by some professional speculators, which eventually flew into the pocket of large companies. Meanwhile,the close connection between leader banks and politicians made the government regulations to minimum, so the market was the law to itself and the inside dealing was prevailed. Also, even though some politicians recognized the potential dangers, they still insisted that the market would correct itself rather than by government intervention. These individual investors knew nothing about how the Wales Street worked or the stock market had already been overheating, even after the stock market finally crashed. Consequently, in spite of the great amount of money put into the market by the government, it didn’t really change the situation. The public realized how fragile the credit system was and totally lost their confidence towards the bank system, which directly led to the public countless withdrawal of bank deposit. Of course, the economy of the whole nation crashed.After more than half of century, there are some mistakes we are still repeating, like the periodic economic problem— financial crisis in 2008. During 1998 to 2006, on the one hand, by several amendment files, the financial market gradually lost its tight regulation from government. On the other hand, several huge companies illegally merged into the largest financial service company in the world, which increased instability of the world market. Both of these two reasons should be responsiblefor the final crisis. But more important thing is that,the whole financial market was greatly influenced or even controlled by a securitization food chain ,including investment banks, financial companies , insurance companies and rating agency. Besides, for higher interests, rating agency made wrong judge to companies and individuals’ assets appraisal and risk evaluation so that people would get loan easily to purchase. This kind of false prosperity in the real estate industry probably was the most direct pressure to the final financial crisis, which pushed the rupture of capital chain in subprime mortgage market.This is a financial crisis about common stock. In 1919, the U.S. won the victory from World War I, everyone’s life altered better. Patter of installment consumption stimulated everyone’s expenditure. Meanwhile, the action that people was willing to purchase governments bonds for financing made Wall Street bankers get the profit opportunity----common stock. It attracted individuals to raise money for private companies which traded on the New York Stock Exchange, bankers could seek benefits for themselves. Gradually, the old idea of stock had been changed. Almost everyone in city and town took part in stock. Someone can gain 17000 dollars although he had only 3500 dollars. All walks of life sold stock. The new idea ofovernight billionaire and stock doesn’t depreciate was enjoying popular support. With little government supervising, market is a law, professional investor controlled all. In March of 1929, the new president Hoover assumed office, and in his inaugural speech, he eliminated the American’s misgiving, although he wasn’t confident. In October of 1929, financial crisis was coming, thousands of banks failed, millions of people lost everything, someone died by jumping from the build. During 36 hours, 22% of American value industry declined. This situation continued with the World War II.This is a financial crisis about a plant. Tulip is just a common flower. In 1593, a botanist cultivated a batch of tulip and their corm was unusual beauty. It gave rise to attention of Great World. When a thing is scarce it is precious, people became more and more adoring for tulip, the tulip’s price changed more and more expensive. Finally, the corn was more weird, the price was higher. Having a beautiful tulip was a symbol of identity. So, cultivated area of tulip was extensive, someone became a millionaire overnight, someone bought a tulip with much money. Tulip euphoria was past, the demand of tulip fell sharply, the price of tulip decline sharply, as the garlic. Quondam contract was useless, many tulips had nothing value.The Dutch economy’s prosperity was a flash in a pan, therefore it entered Great Depression in long-term.This documentary discusses the cause of financial crisis through interviewing the economist and city father, etc. This crisis was not an accident, it was caused by an out-of-control industry. In the 1980s, the financial industry exploded, the investment banks went public, giving them huge amounts of stockholder money. The Reagan administration started a 30-year period of financial deregulation, as the same as Clinton administration. In 1930, Reagan deregulated savings-loan companies allowing them to make risky investments with depositors’ money. Since deregulation began, the world’s biggest financial firms have been caught laundering money, defrauding customers and cooking their books again and again. In1990s, deregulation and advances in technology led to an explosion of complex financial products called derivatives. It made market unstable and Pretty much exempted derivatives from regulation. They created complex derivatives called Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs). Landers didn’t care anymore about whether a borrower could replay, so they started making riskier loans. In 2000, there was a huge increase in the riskiest loans called Subprime. Then, the financial bubbleappeared. Rating agencies gave high standard. The bankruptcy of the U.S, investment bank Leman Brother and the collapse of the world’s largest insurance company AIG triggered a global crisis.For investors, they experienced the disaster, from heaven to hell. These financial crises maybe decreased their enthusiasm of investment, investors lost their money and job, the death rate rose. These experiences made them understand that market is not almighty, they should introspect themselves. For them, the craze of money had limit, the responsibility of society had increased. For the financial regulation. The outbreak of the financial crisis exposed the problem of financial regulation. It reacted the hysteretic quality and inelasticity between financial institution and market. Financial institution operated illegally, it ignored the standard and risk. Governments so believed the market’s self-regulation system, gave them freedom excessive. Governments should realize that financial regulation is the important part of financial activities. For economic systems. International Monetary System was inordinate, currency exchange rate fluctuate sharply. The World Economy retrogresses in long-term. How to balance the government intervention and financial regulation? Was the reform ofmonetary system diversified or single?But actually, there are still some issues in the development of intermediate business. Here are three main problems as follows. Firstly, the contribution of our commercial banks’ intermediate business is less than that of foreign banks. According to the annual report issued by commercial banks, 2012 China Construction Bank and Agricultural Bank of China’s intermediate business income was 22.34%, 18.96%, while the proportion of commercial banks in developed countries is often 40% to 50%, or even as high as 70%. Obviously, there is a big gap between China’ s commercial banks and western commercial banks. The reason is that the management concept of domestic commercial banks lags behind. For a long time, commercial banks have been making the deposit and loan business as a leading business, but ignoring the intermediate business.Secondly, the intermediate business derived most profit from the payment and settlement business, but few from intelligent and high value-added business. For example, in the intermediate business of CCB, payment and settlement business accounted for 70%. On the contrary, the United States Citibank’s acceptance, credit investigation, asset appraisal business hasbrought a profit of 80%. This is mainly because our commercial banks do not make good use of economic and financial information, technology and talents to provide customers with high-quality and high-level services.Thirdly, our commercial banks lack effective management of intermediate business. Commercial banks haven’t set up a unified and professional department to develop and execute the intermediate business. In addition, lack of compound talents who has a knowledge of economic and financial information, science and technology, information technology, directly restricting the development of intermediate business.小组成员及其分工银英14-1Part 1. 经济危机背景及起因——陈芳芳（论文格式撰写及排版）201405003801Part 2. 经济危机主要内容及影响——李吴佳201405001423Part 3. 经济危机相同点及不同点比较——郑敏201405003800共十一页。