宏观经济学多恩布什第10版教材下载及考研视频网课
宏观经济学多恩布什第10版教材下载及考研视频网课多恩布什《宏观经济学》（第10版）网授精讲班【教材精讲＋考研真题串讲】目录多恩布什《宏观经济学》（第10版）网授精讲班【郑炳老师讲授的完整课程】【共41课时】多恩布什《宏观经济学（第10版）》网授精讲班【王志伟老师讲授的部分课程】【共28课时】电子书（题库）•多恩布什《宏观经济学》（第10版）【教材精讲+考研真题解析】讲义与视频课程【39小时高清视频】•多恩布什《宏观经济学》（第10版）笔记和课后习题详解•试看部分内容导论与国民收入核算第1章导论1.1 复习笔记1宏观经济学宏观经济学主要讨论总体经济的运行，具体包括：经济增长问题——收入、就业机会的变化；经济波动问题——失业问题，通货膨胀问题；经济政策——政府能否、以及如何干预经济，改善经济的运行。
2．微观经济学与宏观经济学的关系（1）二者的联系第一，微观经济学和宏观经济学互为补充。
微观经济学是在资源总量既定的条件下，通过研究个体经济活动参与者的经济行为及其后果来说明市场机制如何实现各种资源的最优配置；宏观经济学则是在资源配置方式既定的条件下研究经济中各有关总量的决定及其变化。
第二，微观经济学是宏观经济学的基础。
这是因为任何总体总是由个体组成的，对总体行为的分析自然也离不开个体行为的分析。
第三，微观经济学和宏观经济学都采用了供求均衡分析的方法。
微观经济学通过需求曲线和供给曲线决定产品的均衡价格和产量，宏观经济学通过总需求曲线和总供给曲线研究社会的一般价格水平和产出水平。
（2）二者的区别第一，研究对象不同。
微观经济学研究的是个体经济活动参与者的行为及其后果，侧重讨论市场机制下各种资源的最优配置问题，而宏观经济学研究的是社会总体的经济行为及其后果，侧重讨论经济社会资源的充分利用问题。
第二，中心理论不同。
微观经济学的中心理论是价格理论，宏观经济学的中心理论是国民收入决定论。
第三，研究方法不同。
微观经济学的研究方法是个量分析，宏观经济学的研究方法是总量分析。
3．三类宏观经济模型三类宏观经济模型有：经济增长模型；长期总供给—总需求模型；短期总供给—总需求模型（后两者属于经济波动模型）。
（1）经济增长模型主要解释：经济增长的源泉；各国经济增长率差异的原因；经济起飞的原因；分析投入的积累和技术进步如何导致生活水平的提高。
（2）经济波动模型：总供给—总需求模型（如图1-1所示）图1-1 总供给—总需求模型总供给—总需求模型解释物价水平与产出的决定与波动。
总供给水平：现有资源和技术条件下，经济能够生产的产出量。
总供给曲线（）：对于每一个给定的价格水平，企业所愿意提供的产量。
总需求水平：是对消费品、新投资、政府采购以及净出口水平需求的总和。
总需求曲线（）：当商品市场和货币市场同时处于均衡状态时，相对于每一个既定价格水平的总需求水平或产量水平。
①长期总供给—总需求模型（如图1-2所示）特点：总供给水平由生产能力决定，与价格水平无关；长期总供给曲线是垂直的；长期总供给曲线位置取决于生产能力。
图1-2 长期总供给—总需求模型结论：在长期总供给—总需求模型中，均衡产出取决于生产能力，而价格水平取决于总供给与总需求的作用。
很高的通货膨胀率一般是由总需求的变化引起的。
历史教训：20世纪30年代的世界性经济大萧条1929年10月24日、29日连续经历“黑色星期三”和“黑色星期二”，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌29.5%。
随后，一场股市危机逐渐蔓延，演变成世界性经济危机。
到1933年，美国国内产出总量比1929年下降30%，而失业率从1929年的3.5%上升到1 933年的25%，而且在整个30年代平均失业率达到18%。
②短期总供给—总需求模型（如图1-3所示）短期中，总供给曲线是平坦的。
短期总供给曲线的价格水平固定于供给曲线与纵轴的交点，形成对照的是产量可取任何值。
短期总供给—总需求模型的基本假定是短期的产量水平不影响价格。
由此可见，在短期中，产量只取决于总需求，而价格不受产量水平的影响。
有时候，宏观经济学也会提到中期问题。
中期实际上是研究总供给曲线在水平位置和垂直位置中间的情况。
当高涨的总需求推动产量高过特长期模型可持续的水平时，厂商开始提高价格，而总供给曲线则开始向上移动。
总供给曲线的斜率介于水平的与垂直的中间。
总供给曲线的斜率问题是宏观经济学中争论的主要问题。
图1-3 短期总供给—总需求模型第一部分开篇导读及本书点评[1小时高清视频讲解]一、开篇导读[0.5小时高清视频讲解]主讲老师：郑炳一、教材及教辅、课程、题库简介►教材：多恩布什《宏观经济学》（第10版）（多恩布什、费希尔、斯塔兹著，王志伟译，中国人民大学出版社）►教辅（两本，圣才考研网主编，中国石化出版社出版）1．多恩布什《宏观经济学》（第10版）笔记和课后习题详解2．多恩布什《宏观经济学》名校考研真题详解►课程和题库多恩布什《宏观经济学》配套课程和题库√网授精讲班【教材精讲+考研真题串讲】精讲教材章节内容，穿插经典考研真题，分析各章考点、重点和难点。
高清视频讲解，影院效果班主任，全程管理。
√一对一辅导（面制定个性化辅导方案＋串讲教材、主要针对基础比较薄弱的授/网授）解析考研真题＋配套题库（免费下载，免费升级）√圣才e书（题库）（免费下载，送手机版）历年考研真题测试＋参考教材课后习题详解＋参考教材章节练习＋全真冲刺模拟试题（考前教师押题）中国第一套带高清视频的免费下载、免费升级，功C、手机、平板多端并用二、本教材与其他经典教材的比较多恩布什《宏观经济学》、高鸿业《西方经济学》、帕金《宏观经济学》、曼昆《宏观经济学》和罗默《高级宏观经济学》等经典教材被各高校列为考研考博参考书目。
为了便于学员复习，下面特将多恩布什《宏观经济学》与其他经典教材作简单对比。
多恩布什《宏观经济学》与其他经典教材相比较：1．从难易程度看多恩布什《宏观经济学》属于中级宏观经济学教材，难度适中。
相对来说，高鸿业《西方经济学（宏观部分）》较为简单，属于初级偏中级宏观经济学教材，可供第一轮复习用；曼昆《宏观经济学》也属于中级宏观经济学教材，秉承“原理式”的写作风格，行文流畅，便于理解；罗默《高级宏观经济学》属于高级宏观经济学教材，该书经济增长部分写得特别精彩，可参照复习。
2．从内容全面程度来看多恩布什《宏观经济学》内容全面，融合了经济领域的学术共识，并客观地表述和评价了各学派的观点，是一本不可多得的经典教材。
相对来说，高鸿业《西方经济学（宏观部分）》和曼昆《宏观经济学》等教材偏重于阐述凯恩斯学派的思想，对于货币学派、新古典宏观经济学等着墨不多；帕金《宏观经济学》和巴罗《宏观经济学：现代观点》等教材偏重于阐述新古典宏观经济学的思想，分析方法有一定差异。
这种学派思想的差异的比较有助于更好地理解宏观经济思想，也是考试的重难点。
3．从数理深度来看多恩布什《宏观经济学》数理分析较多，要求学员具备一定的数学功底。
相对来说，高鸿业《西方经济学（宏观部分）》和曼昆《宏观经济学》等教材数理分析不多，偏重于文字和图形阐述；布兰查德《宏观经济学》和罗默《高级宏观经济学》等教材数理分析非常多，要求有很深的数学功底，建议后期复习时使用。
4．从翻译质量来看相对来说，多恩布什《宏观经济学》各版本翻译得不是很到位，一定程度上影响学员复习，建议在复习的时候顺带着参考由东北财经大学出版社出版的原版教材，对专业课复习和英语水平的提高都很有帮助。
总结：对于跨专业学员，以及专业基础不扎实的学员来说，即使所报院校未将高鸿业《西方经济学（宏观部分）》列为考研考博参考书目，也可以在第一轮复习时将该教材作为重要参考教材。
在此基础上，再看多恩布什《宏观经济学》教材，效果非常明显。
为了更好地理解和掌握相关知识点，看多恩布什《宏观经济学》中文版教材之余，同时看多恩布什《宏观经济学》英文版教材、曼昆《宏观经济学》等教材，如果专业课要求较高或难度较高，还需要看罗默《高级宏观经济学》等相关教材相关章节。
三、本课程篇章结构1本章要点（含本章框架结构分析）本章要点简明地概括了该章知识要点，有助于学员更好地理解各章框架结构以及知识要点。
另外，考虑到中文版教材翻译中存在的问题，本课程特意将各章“本章要点”添加了相应的英文原文，以便于学员更好地掌握知识要点和深刻地理解经济学精髓。
2．重难点解读（含名校考研真题解析）该部分讲述各章重难点知识点，对重点、难点知识点进行详细的讲述，并穿插讲述与相关知识点对应的经典考研真题（含2012年最新考研真题）。
考虑到课时的需要以及相关知识点的难易程度，对于一些简单的知识点、考试不易涉及的知识点，本课程不予以讲述或一带而过，故建议大家在听本课程之前提前看教材，在翻看教材基础上，观看本课程，相信一定能事半功倍。
四、本课程特色相对于市面上相关课程，如高校老师授课视频录像，本课程特色突出，集中体现在以下几个方面：1．师资搭配优：教材主译者与实力派名师倾力打造本课程由该教材的主译者王志伟教授和圣才考研经济学考研实力派辅导名师郑炳老师倾力打造。
其中，王教授理论功底雄厚、教学严谨、脉络清晰，注重理论知识内容的讲解，讲授了该教材第1章“导论”；郑老师更多地从应试的角度予以讲述，精选解析名校历年考研真题，引导学员掌握答题思路与方法，完整讲授了全部内容。
2．应试效果好：名校考研真题命题规律与方法分析为满足本课程潜在需求者的考研考博应试需求，辅导老师在讲述过程中完全站在学员需求的角度，对重点、难点进行详细的讲述，做到有的放矢，着重从掌握知识与分析解题思路的角度全面讲解考研考博所要求的相关内容，以达到全面掌握课程内容、夯实基础的学习效果。
2024年度宏观经济学多恩布什ppt课件
政府可以通过制定产业政策来引导资源配置和产业发展方向，从而影响总供给和总需求结 构。例如，鼓励新兴产业发展可以促进技术创新和产业升级；优化传统产业布局可以提高 资源利用效率和企业竞争力。
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05 货币政策与财政 政策
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货币政策工具、传导机制及效果评估
公开市场操作
通过买卖政府债券等方式调节市场流动性。
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货币政策工具、传导机制及效果评估
• 资产价格渠道：通过影响股票、房地产等资产价格进而影响 财富效应和托宾Q效应。
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货币政策工具、传导机制及效果评估
实现经济增长目标
通过扩张性货币政策刺激总需求 ，促进经济增长。
保持物价稳定
通过调整货币供应量控制通货膨 胀或通货紧缩趋势。
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财政政策工具、传导机制及效果评估
乘数效应
政府支出增加会导致国民收入多倍增加，税收减少也 会导致国民收入多倍增加。
挤出效应
政府支出增加可能导致私人投资减少，因为政府借款 会增加市场利率并减少可用于私人投资的资金。
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财政政策工具、传导机制及效果评估
• 自动稳定器作用：累进税制和失业保 险等制度具有自动稳定经济波动的作 用。
结构性通货膨胀
物价上涨是在总需求并不过多的情况下，而对某些部门的产品需求过多造成部分 产品的价格上涨现象。
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通货膨胀定义、类型及影响分析
对经济的影响
通货膨胀会降低货币的实 际购买力，导致消费者和 企业减少储蓄和投资，从 而影响经济增长。
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多恩布什宏观经济学第十版课件5总需求与总供给
•
假定AD 增加至AD’:
•
•
•
总需求政策与古典供应曲线
•
总需求AD的增加引发的价格 上升 减少了实际货币存 M , 并引起支出的减 量, P 少
•
[Insert Figure 5-10 here]
经济将AD向上推进，直至价格 上升到足够高的水平, 实际货币 存量 M/P 降到足够低, 使支出减 少到与充分就业产量相一致的 水平 在E’’, 总需求在更高的 政府支出水平上 ，再次与总供 给相等 AD = AS
[Insert Figure 5-6 here]
•
•
•
如果产量高于潜在产量(Y>Y*), 价 格将会上升，在下一个阶段还会更 高 如果产量低于潜在产量(Y<Y*), 价 格将下降，在下一个阶段还会更低 价格将继续随时间上升或者下降直 至Y=Y*
•
如果明天的价格水平等于今天的价 格水平，产量等于潜在产量(忽略价 格期望)
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供给学派经济学
•
尽管有前面的例子，供给方面的政策还是有用的
• •
只有供给方面的政策才能永久性的提高产出 需求方面的政策只在短期内有效
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很多经济学者强烈支持供给方面的减税政策, 但同时 认为要削减政府支出
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税收降低, 政府支出也相应减少，对赤字的效应可能是接近 中性的
第5章
总需求与总供给
• • • • Item Item Item Etc.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin Macroeconomics, 10e
© 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. 5-1
多恩布什《宏观经济学》(第10版)笔记和课后习题详解 第4章 增长与政策【圣才出品】
第4章增长与政策4.1复习笔记1．内生增长理论内生增长理论是指罗默、卢卡斯等经济学家提出的，用规模收益递增和内生技术进步来说明一个国家长期经济增长和各国增长率差异的一种经济增长理论。
该理论试图将增长率解释为社会决策的函数，特别是储蓄率的函数。
修改新古典增长模型中假定的生产函数的形状，在一定程度上就会出现容许自我持续的（即内生的）增长。
（1）基本假设①社会储蓄函数为S sY =，其中s 为储蓄率；②劳动增长率n 不变；③资本的边际产品不变；④存在外部经济且外部报酬相当大；⑤技术进步是内生要素，技术与总体经济中每个工人的资本水平成正比例，/A K N k αα==，并假定技术属于劳动增加型。
（2）基本方程在上述假定下，把生产函数写为()Y F K AN =，，该生产函数满足规模报酬不变。
对生产函数求全微分：()F F Y K N A A N K AN∂∂∆=⨯∆+⨯∆+⨯∆∂∂Y K F K K AN F AN N AN F AN A Y K N A∆⨯∂∂∆⨯∂∂∆⨯∂∂∆=⋅+⋅+⋅由于生产函数满足规模收益不变，要素及产品市场属于完全竞争市场，运用欧拉定理得：K F K θ⨯∂∂=，1AN F AN θ⨯∂∂=-即有：()()11Y K N Aθθθ∆∆∆∆=⨯+-⨯+-⨯人均产出增长率表达式：()1Y N K N A YN K N A θθ∆∆∆∆∆⎛⎫⎛⎫-=-⨯+⨯- ⎪ ⎪⎝⎭⎝⎭即有：()1y k A y k Aθθ∆∆∆=⨯+⨯-将技术增长公式A K N k A K N k∆∆∆∆=-=代入GDP 增长方程，得：()()11y k A k k k y k A k k kθθθθ∆∆∆∆∆∆=⨯+⨯-=+-=可以判断，y k是常数。
将生产函数除以K 可得出该常数：()()()1F K AN y F K K AN K F k Kαα===≡，，，资本积累方程为()k sy n d k k ∆=-+，联立上式可得，内生增长模型的人均产出增长率的基本公式为：()()y k sy g n d sa n d y k k∆∆===-+=-+。
多恩布什《宏观经济学》第10版课后习题详解(货币、利息与收入)【圣才出品】
5． IS 曲线（ IS curve）
答： IS 曲线指将满足产品市场均衡条件的收入和利率的各种组合的点连结起来而形成
的曲线。它是反映产品市场均衡状态的一幅简单图像。它表示的是任一给定的利率水平上都
M P h h kbG
h 与 k 数值越小，b 与 G 数值越大，增加实际余额对均衡收入水平的扩张性效应也越大。 b 与 G 的数值大，对应着非常平直的 IS 曲线。
4．中央银行（central bank） 答：中央银行指在一国金融体系中居于主导地位，负责制定和执行国家的金融政策，调 节货币流通与信用活动，对国家负责，在对外金融活动中代表国家，并对国内整个金融体系 和金融活动实行管理与监督的金融中心机构。中央银行具有三大职能，即它是“发行的银行”、 “银行的银行”和“政府的银行”。
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圣才电子书 十万种考研考证电子书、题库视频学习平台
（1）中央银行是发行的银行，这一职能指中央银行服务于社会和经济发展，供应货币、 调节货币量、管理货币流通的职能。
（2）中央银行是银行的银行，这一职能指中央银行服务于商业银行和整个金融机构体 系，履行维持金融稳定、促进金融业发展的职责。
6．货币市场的均衡曲线（money market equilibrium schedule）
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圣才电子书 十万种考研考证电子书、题库视频学习平台
答：LM 曲线即货币市场的均衡曲线，它显示能使其实际余额需求等于供给的所有利率
与收入水平的组合。沿着 LM 曲线，货币市场处于均衡状态。要使货币市场处于均衡状态，
A bi
多恩布什《宏观经济学》第10版课后习题详解(国际调整与相互依存)【圣才出品】
多恩布什《宏观经济学》第10版课后习题详解第20章国际调整与相互依存一、概念题1．自动调节机制（automatic adjustment mechanisms）答：自动调节机制指自动起作用消除国际收支失衡问题的机制。
在纯粹的自由经济中有货币—价格机制、收入机制及利率机制等国际收支自动调节机制。
货币—价格机制，也称“价格—现金流动机制”，其描述的是国内货币供给存量与一般物价水平变动以及相对价格水平变动对国际收支的影响。
当一国处于逆差状态时，对外支付大于收入，货币外流，物价下降，本国汇率也下降，由此导致本国出口商品的价格绝对或相对下降，从而出口增加，进口减少，贸易收入得到改善。
收入机制的调节作用表现为：当国际收支逆差时，国民收入下降。
国民收入下降引起社会总需求下降，从而进口需求也下降，进而改善贸易收支。
利率机制的调节作用表现为：当国际收支发生逆差时，本国货币供给存量减少，利率因此上升，这意味着本国金融资产的收益上升，从而对本国金融资产的需求上升，对外国金融资产的需求相对下降。
这样，资金外流减少或内流增加，资本与金融项目收支得到改善。
当国际收支顺差时，上述的自动调节仍然起作用，只是方向相反而已。
2．内部和外部平衡（internal and external balance）答：内部平衡指国民经济处于无通货膨胀的充分就业状态。
内部均衡时国内产品市场、货币市场和劳动市场同时达到均衡，宏观经济处于充分就业水平上，并且没有通货膨胀的压力，经济稳定增长。
内部均衡目标包括经济增长、价格稳定和充分就业。
外部均衡指国际收支平衡，也即贸易品的供求处于均衡状态。
当国际收支平衡时，既无国际收支顺差，也无国际收支逆差。
在开放经济中，宏观经济的最终目标是实现内部均衡和外部均衡。
英国经济学家詹姆斯·米德开创性地提出了“两种目标、两种工具”的理论模式，即在开放经济条件下，一国经济如果希望同时达到对内均衡和对外均衡的目标，则必须同时运用支出增减政策和支出转换政策两种工具。
多恩布什宏观经济学第十版原版
可持续发展与经济
增长
在追求经济增长的同时，应注重 环境保护和社会公平，实现可持 续发展。
03
失业、通货膨胀与货币政策
失业类型、原因及影响
摩擦性失业
由于劳动力市场供需不匹配导致的短 期失业。
结构性失业
由于经济结构变化或技术进步导致的 长期失业。
失业类型、原因及影响
• 周期性失业：由于经济周期波动导致的失 业。
经济增长是经济发展的基础，但经济发展还包括 结构优化、社会进步和生态改善等方面。
经济增长因素与政策建议
经济增长因素
包括资本积累、劳动力投入、技 术进步和制度变迁等，对经济增 长具有重要影响。
政策建议
针对经济增长因素，提出相应的 政策建议，如促进资本形成、提 高劳动力素质、推动技术创新和 深化制度改革等。
汇率政策选择
汇率政策是开放经济条件下 宏观经济政策的重要组成部 分。政府可以通过干预外汇 市场、调整汇率制度等方式 来影响国际贸易和资本流动 。
国际合作与政策 协调
在开放经济中，各国之间的 经济政策相互影响，因此国 际合作和政策协调变得尤为 重要。通过国际合作，各国 可以共同应对国际经济波动 和金融危机等挑战，促进全 球经济的稳定和繁荣。
总需求曲线形状及影响因素
总需求曲线形状
总需求曲线通常呈现向下倾斜的形状 ，表示随着价格的上升，消费者和投 资者的需求会减少。
01
02
消费者支出
消费者信心、收入水平和预期等因素 会影响消费者支出和总需求。
03
投资支出
企业盈利、利率和预期等因素会影响 投资支出和总需求。
净出口
国际贸易状况和汇率等因素会影响净 出口和总需求。
研究对象
多恩布什《宏观经济学》第十版英文原版I19revised
CHAPTER 19BIG EVENTS: THE ECONOMICS OF DEPRESSION,HYPERINFLATION, AND DEFICITSChapter Outline•The Great Depression and its impact on macroeconomics•Money and inflation•Monetarism and the rational expectations approach•The effects of hyperinflation•Disinflation and the sacrifice ratio•Credibility•The Fed's dilemma•Deficits, money growth, and seigniorage•The inflation tax•Federal government outlays and revenues•The primary deficit•The debt-to-income ratio•The burden of the debt•Financing Social SecurityChanges from the Previous EditionThe material in this chapter was in Chapter 18 in the previous edition. It has been updated, Boxes 19-2 and 19-5 have been added, and other boxes have been renumbered accordingly. Introduction to the MaterialThe Great Depression in the 1930s presented an economic crisis of enormous proportions. Between 1929 and 1933, real GDP in the U.S. fell by almost 30% and unemployment reached an all-time high of almost 25%. While the economy grew fairly rapidly from 1933-37, unemployment remained in the double digit range. In 1937/38, there was another major recession and the unemployment rate remained above 5% until 1942. In the 1930s unemployment averaged 18.8%, but by 1939 real GDP had recovered to its 1929 level.The classical economists of the time were not equipped to explain the existence of such substantial and persistent unemployment or to prescribe policies to deal with it. Only in 1936, in John Maynard Keynes’book The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, was a macroeconomic theory introduced upon which policies to keep the economy out of future recessions could be based. Keynes’ theory provided an explanation of what had happened during the Great Depression and suggested policies that might have prevented it.The stock market crash of 1929 is often seen as the catalyst for the Great Depression but, in fact, economic activity actually started to decline even before the crash. What might well have393been an average recession turned into a very severe depression due to the inept economic policies employed at the time. The Fed failed to provide needed liquidity to banks and did little to prevent the collapse of the financial system. The huge contraction in money supply due to the large numbers of bank failures caused the economic downturn. Fiscal policy was weak at best. Politicians concerned with balancing the budget raised taxes to match increases in government spending, so the decline in aggregate demand was not counteracted.Many other countries also suffered during the same period, mainly as a result of the collapse of the international financial system and the enactment of high tariffs worldwide. These policies were designed to protect domestic producers in an attempt to improve each country’s domestic trade balance at the expense of foreign trading partners. However, the attempts to "export" unemployment ultimately resulted in an overall decline in world trade and production.In the U.S., many institutional changes and administrative actions, collectively known as the New Deal, were implemented in the 1930s. The Fed was reorganized and new institutions were created, including the FDIC, the SEC, and the Social Security Administration. Public works programs and a program to establish orderly competition among firms were also implemented.The experience of the Great Depression led to the belief that the economy is inherently unstable and active stabilization policy is needed to maintain full employment. Keynes was an advocate of active government policy. In his work, he explained what had happened in the Great Depression and what could be done to avoid a recurrence. Many years later, Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz offered a different explanation. In their book A Monetary History of the United States, Friedman and Schwartz argued that the severe decline in money supply, caused by the Fed’s failure to prevent banks from failing, was the reason for the severity of the Great Depression. They claimed that monetary policy is very powerful and that fluctuations in money supply can explain most of the fluctuations in GDP over the last century. This argument provided the impetus for new research on the effects of fiscal and monetary stabilization policies. While economists are still debating these issues, we can conclude that monetary policy can affect the behavior of output in the short and medium run, but not in the long run. In the long run, increases in the growth rate of money supply will simply lead to increases in the rate of inflation. Box 19-3 gives an overview of the monetarist positions on the importance of money for the economy, while Box 19-2 quotes Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who admits that the magnitude of the Great Depression was indeed the result of the Fed’s action—or, more accurately, inaction.The link between inflation and monetary growth can easily be derived from the quantity theory of money equation:MV = PY ==> %∆M + %∆V = %∆P + %∆Y ==> m + v = π + y ==> π = m - y + v In other words, the rate of inflation (%∆P = π) is determined by the difference between the growth rate of nominal money supply (%∆M = m) and the growth rate of real output (%∆Y = y), adjusted for the percentage change in the income velocity of money (%∆V = v).Figure 19-1 shows that trends in the rate of inflation and the growth of money supply (M2) have been somewhat similar over the last four decades. There is plenty of evidence to support the notion that in the long run, inflation is a monetary phenomenon here in the U.S. as well as in other countries. However, there are short-run variations, indicating that changes in velocity and output growth have also affected the inflation rate. By the mid 1990s, the relationship between394M2 growth and inflation had largely broken down, even for the long run. It is still true, however, that there has never been inflation in the long run without rapid growth of money supply, and the faster money grew the higher the rate of inflation.Although there is no exact definition, countries are said to experience hyperinflation when the inflation rate reaches 1,000% annually. Countries that have experienced hyperinflation have all had huge budget deficits which, in many cases, originated from increased government spending during wartime. A classical example is the German hyperinflation of 1922/23. In an economy experiencing hyperinflation, there is often widespread indexing, most likely to foreign exchange rates rather than to the price level, since prices are changing so fast. Eventually, hyperinflation becomes too much to bear and the government is forced to take harsh measures, including fiscal reform and the introduction of a new monetary unit pegging the new money to a foreign currency. Box 19-4 on the situation in Bolivia in the 1980s provides a good example of how hyperinflation can be stopped. It also points out that the costs are great in terms of decreasing per-capita income. In 1985, Bolivia stopped external debt service, raised taxes, reduced money creation, and stabilized the exchange rate. Inflation came down quickly, but per-capita income in 1989 was 35 percent less than it had been a decade earlier.In its fight against hyperinflation, Israel tried to keep unemployment rates low by instituting wage and price controls while also sharply cutting budget deficits and rationing credit. These measures reduced the rate of inflation significantly. In the late 1980s, the governments of Argentina and Brazil imposed wage-price controls but failed to supplement them with fiscal austerity, so the result was much less satisfactory, although they, like many South American countries eventually succeeded in lowering their inflation rates. In the early 1990s, countries in Eastern Europe experienced brief periods of high inflation during their adjustments from centrally planned economies to more market based economies (as shown in Table 19-6). There is no guarantee that periods of hyperinflation will not surface again. New Box 19-5 describes the situation in Zimbabwe where the decision made in 2006 to print more money to finance higher government spending led to inflation rates in excess of 1,000%.When inflation is high, policy makers must focus on reducing it without causing a major economic downturn. This is fairly difficult to accomplish, however, since labor contracts tend to reflect past expectations and new contract negotiations take time. In addition, it may be difficult for a central bank to gain credibility in its fight against inflation because of its behavior in the past. Credibility is important, since inflationary expectations adjust down faster if people believe that a government is serious in its attempt to reduce inflation. If this is the case, the expectations-adjusted Phillips curve shifts to the left sooner and the economy adjusts more quickly to the full-employment level of output at a lower inflation rate. But some increase in unemployment is almost always needed to reduce inflation, since real wages need to adjust down to their full-employment level. The costs to society are often measured in terms of the sacrifice ratio, that is, the ratio of the cumulative percentage loss of GDP to the achieved reduction in the inflation rate.Probably all economists now agree with the monetarist propositions that rapid money growth tends to be inflationary and inflation cannot be kept low unless money growth is kept low. We also know that monetary policy has long and variable lags. But other monetarist positions remain more controversial, including those that suggest that the economy is inherently stable and that monetary targets are better than interest rate targets. The rational expectations approach can be seen as an extension of the monetarist approach, with a strong belief that markets clear rapidly395and people use all information available to them. This is why they advocate policy rules rather than discretion and place emphasis on the credibility of policy makers. Box 19-6 highlights the rational expectations approach.Any government that is unwilling to show fiscal restraint will ultimately be faced with excessive money growth and an increase in the inflation rate. Continued large government budget deficits create a policy dilemma for a central bank, which must decide whether to monetize the debt. If the central bank decides not to finance the debt, the increased borrowing needs of the government may drive interest rates up, leading to the crowding out of private spending. The central bank may then be blamed for slowing down economic growth. But if the central bank is worried about high interest rates and monetizes the debt in order to keep interest rates low, inflation may increase with the central bank taking the blame.The financing of government spending through the creation of high-powered money is an alternative to explicit taxation. Inflation acts like a tax since the government can spend more by printing money while people can spend less, since some of their income must be used to increase their nominal money holdings. The inflation tax revenue is defined as:inflation tax revenue = (inflation rate)*(the real money base).The ability of the government to raise additional tax revenue through the creation of money (and therefore inflation) is called seigniorage, and Table 19-7 shows some empirical evidence of the inflation tax revenue raised as percentage of GDP for some Latin American countries. However, there is a limit to how much revenue a government can raise through an inflation tax. As inflation increases, people reduce their currency holdings and banks reduce their excess reserves, since holding money becomes more costly. Eventually the real monetary base falls so much that the government's inflation tax revenue decreases. Figure 19-3 shows this graphically.While higher deficits can cause higher inflation if they are financed through money creation, higher inflation may also contribute to deficits, since inflation reduces the real value of tax payments. In addition, high nominal interest rates (caused by high inflation) raise the nominal interest payments the government must make on the national debt. The inflation-adjusted deficit corrects for that and is defined in the following way:inflation-adjusted deficit = total deficit - (inflation rate)*(national debt).Large government budget deficits and rapid monetary expansion seem to be inevitable parts of hyperinflation. The high rate of monetary expansion originates in the government's desire to raise its inflation tax revenue. However, the government can only be successful if it prints money faster than the public anticipates. Eventually, the process will break down, as the real money base becomes smaller and smaller.During the 1980s, the U.S. experienced very large budget deficits, which were temporarily brought under control in the late 1990s, only to increase sharply again in 2002. Figure 19-4 shows the trend in U.S. budget deficits as percentage of GDP, while Tables 19-8 and 19-9 give an overview of trends in the U.S. government's outlays and revenues. It is interesting to note that entitlements and interest payments on the national debt have increased significantly over the last396four decades. On the revenue side, corporate income taxes as a share of GDP have declined, while social insurance taxes have increased substantially.To highlight the role of the national debt in the budget, it is useful to distinguish between the actual budget deficit and the primary (non-interest) budget deficit. The U.S. budget deficits in the 1990s were actually more a result of high interest payments on the previously incurred debt than of government spending exceeding tax revenues. This is the legacy of past deficits. As the national debt accumulates, its interest costs accelerate, contributing even more to the budget deficit. The national debt is the result of all past and present budget deficits, and the process by which the Treasury finances the debt is called debt management. As old government securities mature, the Treasury issues new securities to make the payments on old ones.Robert Eisner has argued that it is important to recognize that the government has assets and not just debts. Any spending on infrastructure should be treated as accumulation of real capital and offset by the debt issued to pay for it. In other words, just like private spending, government expenditures should be separated into government “consumption” and government “investment.”With the U.S. gross national debt now exceeding $8.5 trillion (or over $28,000 per capita), it becomes important to consider its real burden. If individuals who hold government bonds consider an increase in government debt as an increase in their personal wealth, they will consume more and a lower share of GDP will be invested. This will lead to a lower rate of capital accumulation and slower future economic growth. Another concern is that foreigners hold a large part of the debt. Since the burden of future tax payments on this part of the debt (plus interest) will fall on U.S. taxpayers while the recipients of these payments will be foreigners, there will be a reduction in U.S. net wealth.High deficits cannot be sustained indefinitely, but as long as national income is growing faster than the national debt (implying a declining debt-income ratio), the potential for instability is fairly low. In the 1990s, there was widespread sentiment that government had grown too big and that sound fiscal policy had to be implemented. The fiscal restriction finally succeeded in turning the large budget deficits of the 1980s into budget surpluses in 1998. A debate quickly began among politicians about the best ways to put the surplus to use. Was it better to cut taxes, increase spending, or gradually pay off the national debt? The path chosen by the Bush administration was a massive tax cut, leading to renewed budget deficits in 2002.Another debate revolves around Social Security reform. There is increasing concern about the financial difficulties that the Social Security system will face in the near future. The system is financed to a large extent on a pay-as-you-go basis, with most of the earmarked taxes paid by current workers being used immediately to finance the Social Security benefits of current retirees. Such a transfer of resources from the young to the old can be accomplished if:• A growing population increases the ratio of workers to retirees. If population growth slows, however, then contributions have to be increased or benefits have to be cut.•High-income growth allows retirement benefits to be higher than past contributions, since the source of the benefits is the higher income of the younger generations. If income growth slows, however, then the system may face financing difficulties.•The political situation is favorable. A larger percentage of older people than younger people vote so the elderly can enforce the intergenerational transfer through the political system. But at some point, the young, who expect to receive lower benefits than their parents relative to their contributions, may refuse to support the system through their taxes.397While the Social Security system is often seen as a “forced savings system,” which makes sure that everyone accumulates some wealth for retirement, there is strong empirical evidence that the system actually reduces national saving due to its pay-as-you-go financing. The decline in saving reduces the rate of capital accumulation, which lowers productivity and future living standards.The Social Security trust fund actually has been growing as a result of the Social Security Reform of 1983, but current predictions are that the system will be bankrupt after 2045 when most of the baby-boomer generation will have retired. While most people do not wish to see the Social Security system totally abandoned, additional reforms are very likely in the near future. The central question is how to earn higher returns on the funds invested to prevent the system from insolvency and how to preserve equity for those who have already paid into the system. Suggestions for LecturingStudents who follow the news see stock prices fluctuate daily and they probably heard about past stock market bubbles and crashes. These students will be curious about the impact of major swings in stock market activity on the economy. Most people assume that the stock market crash of October, 1929 marked the beginning of the Great Depression and are not aware that economic activity had actually begun to decline earlier. A good way to introduce the material in this chapter is to ask: “Could a Great Depression happen again?” or “Do stock market crashes cause economic downturns?” Either will lead to a lively class discussion that can help to highlight several of the issues raised in the chapter. In this discussion the major stock market crash of October, 1987 and the decline in (especially high-tech) stock values that started in March, 2000 will undoubtedly come up. They are reminders that stock market bubbles will always eventually burst and that there is considerable risk associated with buying stocks.Most economists now agree that the magnitude of the Great Depression was exacerbated by inadequate fiscal and monetary policy responses. The Fed’s failure to inject e nough liquidity into the banking system to prevent failures led to a severe contraction in the supply of money and an economic downturn, and. Policy makers also did little initially to stimulate economic activity through fiscal policy. The severity of the economic situation in the 1930’s is not surprising to economists today, as no well-developed economic theory existed at the time that could deal with a disturbance of this magnitude. It was not until John Maynard Keynes offered an explanation of what had happened during the Great Depression and suggested ways to prevent future recessions that macroeconomists began to ponder the values of fiscal and monetary stabilization policies. It is no wonder that Keynes is seen by many as the “father of all macroeconomists.”Economic theories are generally pro ducts of their time and, as mentioned above, Keynes’macroeconomic theory was developed as a result of the Great Depression. His explanation and prescription for preventing future depressions were widely accepted, but did not have much impact on policy making in the U.S. until the 1960s, when the government followed (mostly fiscal) activist policies to ensure full employment.The handling of the major stock market crash of 1987 appears to indicate that policy makers have learned from past mistakes. Stock values dropped by more than 24% in October of 1987, but we did we not see a severe downturn in economic activity. Why not? For one, Alan398Greenspan, who had been appointed as chair of the Board of Governors of the Fed only a few months earlier, was conscious of what had happened in 1929 and immediately assured financial markets that the Fed would provide the liquidity needed to prevent a financial collapse. The Fed quickly started to undertake open market purchases in an effort to drive interest rates down. In addition, as a result of institutional changes implemented after the Great Depression, government now has a much larger role in the economy. Students should be aware that the Great Depression not only shaped modern macroeconomic thinking and approaches to stabilization policy, but also shaped the structure of many U.S. institutions. Instructors may want to spend some time talking about these institutions and their importance to our economy.It also should be noted that the economy was in much better shape when the stock market crashed in 1987 than it was in 1929. While we can only speculate on what would have happened had the economy been in worse shape, the existence of programs such as Social Security and unemployment insurance would have dampened the severity of a downturn by providing some automatic stability. In addition, the existence of the FDIC, which insures all bank deposits up to $100,000, now serves to avoid panic in financial markets and runs on banks.The recession in 1981/82, which was the most severe recession since the Great Depression and brought the unemployment level close to 11%, provides another good example that policy makers now react much more swiftly to major economic upheavals. Even though the recession was fairly severe, it did not last for an extended period, since expansionary policies were implemented almost immediately after the magnitude of the downturn became clear.There are still disagreements about the primary causes for the Great Depression and these should be clarified. The Keynesian explanation concentrates on spending behavior, that is, the reduction in consumption and the collapse of investment. The decrease in aggregate demand was exacerbated by the restrictive fiscal policy implemented by the government trying to balance the budget. The monetarist explanation concentrates on the behavior of money and asserts that the Fed failed to prevent the collapse of the banking system. The large number of bank failures led to a loss of confidence in the banking system, an enormous increase in the currency-deposit ratio, and therefore a huge decrease in the money multiplier. Monetarists see the resulting severe decline in money supply as the cause of the Great Depression. Both explanations fit the facts and it is important for instructors to point out that there is no inherent conflict between them; in fact, they complement one another.While the programs of the New Deal are largely credited with revitalizing the economy in the mid-1930s, probably one of the most important factors was the sharp increase in money supply, starting in 1933. This is often a forgotten fact. It should be noted that while unemployment remained high, the deflation of prices and wages stopped after 1933, and output began to rebound. In addition, some of the programs implemented by the government after the Great Depression helped to keep wages from falling further.The fact that unemployment’s downward pressure on wages tends to weaken if high unemployment is persistent should also be mentioned at this point. The possibility that the behavior of nominal wages affects the rate of inflation should be discussed with reference to the situation in some European countries, where the unemployment rate has been above the levels experienced in the U.S. for quite some time.The German hyperinflation of 1922-23, when the inflation rate averaged 322% per month, provides another example of a major economic event that shaped macroeconomic thinking. But399students will probably prefer to discuss more recent examples, such as the Bolivian experience of the 1980s highlighted in Box 19-4 or the situation in Zimbabwe starting in 2006. Both cases make clear that the cost of stopping hyperinflation can be extremely high in terms of a decreased standard of living. The discussion should make it clear that large budget deficits and rapid monetary growth are always prevalent in times of hyperinflation, and only draconian measures can ensure a reduction in inflationary expectations. Without such measures the economy will collapse and has to be completely restructured, with the introduction of a new monetary unit that may be pegged to a foreign exchange rate.There is no exact definition of hyperinflation, but it is said to exist when the inflation rate reaches 1,000% on an annual basis. Students will always remember the following definition of inflation in general: “inflation is nothing more than too much money chasing too few goods.” But is inflation “always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon,” as Milton Friedman put it? Figure 19-1 indicates that the rate of inflation and the growth rate of M2 show somewhat similar long-run trends (at least until about 1993), but there are large variations in the short run. In other words, the link between monetary growth and the inflation rate is by no means precise. For one, growth in output affects the inflation rate and real money holdings. Interest rate changes and financial innovations also affect desired money holdings and therefore the income velocity of money. Empirical evidence indicates that the velocity of M2 has shown a fairly constant long-run trend from the 1960s to the 1990s, while the velocity of M1 has fluctuated significantly over the last few decades. Considering the enormous changes that took place in the U.S. banking system in the 1980s, it is surprising that the income velocity of M2 actually stayed as stable as it did. By the late 1990s, the link between M2 growth and the inflation rate had largely broken down; the possible causes and any monetary policy implications should be discussed.By now, students should be familiar with the quantity theory of money equation and should be able to derive the equation that shows the long-run relationship between money growth, output growth, velocity changes, and the rate of inflation. We can thus derive the following:MV = PY ==> %∆M + %∆V = %∆P + %∆Y ==> %∆P = %∆M - %∆Y + %∆V==> π = m - y + v.This equation indicates that higher growth rates of money (%∆M = m) adjusted for growth in output (%∆Y = y) and changes in velocity (%∆V = v) are associated with higher inflation rates (%∆P = π). The strict monetary growth rule is based on this equation and suggests that a zero inflation rate can be achieved if money supply is only allowed to grow at the same rate as the long-run trend of output, assuming that velocity remains stable. It should be made clear, that this equation shows only a long-run relationship and that output growth and velocity can be highly variable in the short run, causing great variations in the inflation rate.Besides looking at the role of monetary growth in determining the inflation rate, instructors may also want to spend some time looking at the role of nominal wages and labor productivity. Just by recalling the simple equationw = W/P,400。
宏观经济学多恩布什第十版ppt课件
The Desired Capital Stock
To derive the rental cost of capital:
› firms finance the purchase of capital by borrowing over time, at an intetal Stock
Firms use capital, along with labor and other resources, to produce output The goal of a given firm is to maximize profits
Figure 14-1 illustrates the volatility of investment by comparing investment and GDP
[Insert Figure 14-1 here]
Introduction
The theory of investment is the theory of the demand for capital
When deciding the optimal level of capital, The mafrirgminasl pmroduucsttofbcaapiltaalniscthee intchreeasecinoonuttpruibt purotdioucnedtbhy austing
more ca1pmiotrae ul nmit oaf ckaepistaltion ptrhodeucirtiorne. venues against the cost of acquiring additional The rental c(usaerp) ciotsat olf capital is the cost of using 1 more unit of capital in production.
多恩布什《宏观经济学》第10版章节习题精编详解(重大事件、国际调整和前沿课题)【圣才出品】
第5篇重大事件、国际调整和前沿课题第19章重大事件：萧条经济学、恶性通货膨胀和赤字一、简答题1．恶性通货膨胀对宏观经济运行效率将产生哪些不利影响？答：恶性通货膨胀对宏观经济运行效率产生的不利影响主要包括：（1）恶性通货膨胀使价格信号扭曲，使厂商无法根据价格提供的信号来决策，造成经济活动的低效率。
（2）恶性通货膨胀使厂商必须经常性地改变其产品或服务的价格，产生因价格改变而发生的菜单成本。
（3）恶性通货膨胀使不确定性提高，引发资源配置向通货膨胀预期有利的领域倾斜，不利于经济的长期稳定发展。
（4）恶性通货膨胀降低人们的货币需求，这会使往返银行的次数增多，以至于磨掉鞋底，经济学上这种成本被称为“鞋底成本”。
2．为什么通货膨胀有通货膨胀税的说法？它与铸币税是一回事吗？答：（1）如果货币供给的增加触发物价上涨，导致通货膨胀，由于通货膨胀的再分配效应，势必削弱社会公众手中所持有货币的购买力，引起一部分货币购买力从社会公众向货币发行者转移，这种转移犹如一种赋税，因而被称为通货膨胀税。
（2）铸币税指的是政府凭借对货币发行权的垄断而获得的对一部分社会资源的索取权，铸币税的数额等于所发行的货币面值与其实际发行成本之间的差额，实际发行成本主要包括纸张成本及印制费等。
通货膨胀税与铸币税不是一回事，只要政府发行的货币面值与发行成本之间存在差额，则必定存在铸币税；但如果所发行的货币恰好为经济活动所需要，没有相应出现通货膨胀，则就不存在通货膨胀税；只有在过度发行货币引致通货膨胀的时候，才会存在通货膨胀税。
3．预算赤字是个问题吗？为什么是？或者为什么不是？答：预算赤字是在编制预算时支出大于收入的差额，是计划安排的赤字。
预算赤字是个问题。
原因分析如下：（1）在短期，扩张性财政政策引起的赤字增加会刺激总需求，使产出增加。
但同时利率上升会挤出私人消费和投资，而资本积累的降低意味着未来经济增长的乏力。
（2）在开放经济中，预算赤字增加会提高利率，吸引国外资金流入并使本币升值，削弱了本国商品的竞争力，使国际收支的经常项目恶化。
宏观经济学多恩布什第十版ppt课件
The Desired Capital Stock
To derive the rental cost of capital:
› firms finance the purchase of capital by borrowing over time, at an interest rate of i
› At the time the firm makes an investment, the nominal interest rate is known, but the inflation rate for the coming year is not
Real cost of borrowing is the expected real interrestiratee :
The Desired Capital Stock
Firms use capital, along with labor and other resources, to produce output The goal of a given firm is to maximize profits
› In the presence of inflation, the nominal dollar value of capital rises over time
Real cost of capital = nominal interest rate - nominal capital gain
The Desired Stock of Capital
Firms add capital until the marginal return of the last unit added drops to the rental cost of capital