人民币升值的英文文献及翻译
US clears China of currency manipulation Veronica SmithAFPThe US Treasury cleared China of official accusations of currency manipulation on Friday, but said progress toward allowing the yuan to appreciate was "insufficient".In a report to Congress, the Treasury said that China, eight other countries and the eurozone were all innocent of charges that they manipulated exchange rates "for purposes of ... gaining unfair competitive advantage in international trade"."Based on the resumption of exchange rate flexibility last June and the acceleration of the pace of real bilateral appreciation over the past few months," China's behaviour did not qualify under the official definition of manipulation, it said in the long-delayed report.Advertisement: Story continues below"Treasury's view, however, is that progress thus far is insufficient and that more rapid progress is needed."It pledged to "continue to closely monitor the pace of appreciation" of the yuan.In addition to China, the Treasury looked at the policies of the eurozone and eight other economies: Brazil, Britain, Canada, Japan, Mexico, South Korea, Switzerland and Taiwan. The 10 together account for about 75 per cent of US trade."Treasury has concluded that no major trading partner of the United States met the standards" of manipulation as identified by the law "during the period covered in this report".The Chinese currency policy has been a major irritant in bilateral relations with the world's second-largest economy, and was a key topic of discussion when President Barack Obama hosted Chinese President Hu Jintao on a state visit last month.The United States accuses Beijing of keeping its currency undervalued, flooding the country with cheap exports and costing US jobs.US legislators have pushed the Obama administration to get tough with China over the yuan.A bill threatening sanctions to punish Beijing's currency policy is lurking in Congress, which has awaited the Treasury report since it was first supposed to appear on October 15.Chinahas pledged to allow the yuan to gain value, but at a measured pace so as not to destabilise its rapidly expanding economy.The Treasury said the yuan, also called the renminbi (RMB), had appreciated 3.7 per cent against the dollar between mid-June and January 27.In fact, it added, weighing the higher rate of inflation in China, "the RMB has been appreciating more rapidly against the dollar on a real, inflation-adjusted basis, at a rate which if sustained would amount to more than 10 per cent per year".A top politician in congress, Max Baucus, head of the Senate Finance Committee, slammed the Treasury's findings."China's currency practices harm ranchers, farmers, and exporters across America and around the world," the senator, a Democrat representing the western state of Montana, said in a statement."China has been given a free pass on its currency practices for far too long. We need tohold China and our other trading partners accountable for their actions, and we must acknowledge - and take steps to remedy - those actions that harm the competitiveness of American businesses and workers."The report came a week ahead of the government's December trade balance numbers. The Commerce Department is expected to report next Friday that the US trade deficit widened to $US50.0 billion ($A49.3 billion) from $US42.6 billion ($A42.01 billion) in November.China has appeared on track to beat its 2008 record trade surplus with the US. Over the first 11 months of 2010, the China trade gap was $US252.4 billion ($A248.88 billion), compared with $US268.0 billion ($A264.26 billion) for all of 2008.资料来源：Veronica Smith，AFP，February 5, 20（.au/breaking-news-business/us-clears-china-of-currency-mani pulation-20110205-1ah94.html）美国清除中国操纵货币维罗尼卡史密斯2011年2月5日法新社美国财政部清除官员的指责中国操纵汇率上周五，但表示对允许人民币升值的进展“不足”。
在给国会的报告，财政部表示，中国，其他八个国家和欧元区的，他们都是操纵汇率清白“为宗旨...抢占国际贸易不公平的竞争优势。
”“基于汇率的灵活性和恢复去年六月的实际双边升值步伐在过去数个月的加速，”中国的行为不符合操纵下的正式定义，它说，在拖延已久的报告。
广告语：下面的故事继续“财政部的观点，但是，迄今为止的进展是不够的，更迅速地取得进展是必要的。
”它承诺将“继续密切监察升值步伐”的人民币。
除了中国，财政部看着欧元区的政策和其他八个经济体：巴西，英国，加拿大，日本，墨西哥，韩国，瑞士和台湾。
10个一起约占美国贸易总额的75。
“财政部的结论是，没有美国的主要贸易伙伴符合标准”的操作由法律确定为“在本报告所涵盖的时期”。
在中国货币政策一直是与世界第二大经济体的双边关系中的重大刺激，是一个讨论的主要议题时，总统奥巴马托管在中国进行国事访问的国家主席胡锦涛上个月。
美国指责保持其货币被低估，充斥廉价出口的国家和北京的美国就业成本。
美国立法者推动奥巴马政府与中国强硬获得超过人民币。
法案威胁制裁，以惩罚北京的货币政策在国会，后者正在等待财政部的报告，因为它是第一个应该出现在10月15日潜伏。
人民币升值的影响外文翻译
The impact of RMB appreciationAs the comprehensive strength of the national economy grows, the Chinese currency, the Renminbi (RMB) began to appreciate. Effects of the RMB's appreciation since July have been felt both domestically and abroad, and will become even more significant with time. China should embrace the new opportunities that appreciation has opened-up and allow more room for the national economy to grow in the process of globalization.People need to be aware that the appreciation of the RMB may have some less desirable effects on economic growth in the short term. Currently, China's export market still relies heavily on cheap labor to compete in the international market. As its added value is low, the appreciation of the RMB will affect China's export and consequently the overall growth rate of the national economy. However, there are also many positive aspects to the appreciation of the RMB. In the long run, RMB appreciation will generate more development opportunities. People will feel richer, it will improve China's status and influence in the world economy and it will change the commodity structure and the flow of investment. It will also have a significant influence on the structure of domestic production resources.First of all, it will accelerate industrial upgrading. In a market economy, the fluctuation of the foreign exchange rate involves the international balance of incomes and expenses and is an important price indicator. The appreciation of the RMB means that the price of various domestic resources, especially land and labor, will go up in relative terms and this will speed up necessary adjustments to the commodity mix and domestic industry. RMB appreciation will gradually change the value of the international and domestic markets. Domestic enterprises will rely more on sales to the domestic market so that national economic growth is less dependent on export demand and a more reasonable industrial structure will form.Secondly, it will promote technical innovation. In many countries, technical innovation relies primarily on a market mechanism which makes good use of price as a lever. China's production process is enormously costly in terms of resources and energy, and labor is too cheap. The appreciation of the RMB will cause an increase in the domestic prices of such things as land and labor as well stimulate the demand for innovation. Products for export must rely on technological innovation to be more competitive internationally. In the domestic market, enterprises are also forced tocompete through technological innovation. Simply speaking, the appreciation of the RMB will cause the formation of a market environment that is conducive to speeding up technological innovation.Thirdly, the appreciation of the RMB will benefit the people. On the one hand, it will make imported products relatively cheaper. It will also be cheaper for Chinese to travel abroad. This will increase consumption. On the other hand, it will push up the market price of domestic financial assets, changing the financial market structure. If other conditions don't change, Chinese people will feel richer as the value of their money grows and further stimulates domestic demand. Of greater strategic significance is the fact that the appreciation of the RMB will make the price Chinese labor price higher.RMB appreciation reflects the success of Chinese economic development after reform and opening up. It is also an important turning point in China's social and economic situation. The downsides to RMB appreciation shouldn't be overemphasized. The fluctuation of the RMB is the result of changes to the current economic structure and will have an important impact on the economic structure of the future. Maintaining the status quo is short-sighted and will harm the long-term interests of China. The best choice is to speed up the transformation of the economic growth mode and adapt to the appreciation of RMB to make the most from the process.With the announcement of reforming the RMB exchange rate regime on July 21, 2005, great attention has been paid to the impacts of RMB’s appreciation on China’s trade. Since China being in the transition from pegging to a managed floating regime, no existing approximate model and method can be utilized to investigate this question directly. In this paper, scenario analysis technique is used to give a study on this issue, coupled with the introduction of the substituted valuables: Japanese yen and Euro exchange rate. Our results show that RMB’s appreciation would not bring severe effects on China’s trade in 2005; however, the possible sustained reduction of export growth in 2006 should be paid more attention. It is also necessary and urgent to press forward with the reform of RMB exchange rate regime, and put up the related supporting policies to avoid such sudden fluctuation as the Japanese situation after “Plaza Accord”.The RMB exchange rate became a hot topic after the announcement of exchangerate regime reform on July 21, 2005. The new regime, a managed floating exchange rate regime based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies, allows RMB to rise by 2%, with a daily 0.3% trading band based on the price of the previous day. With its rapid development, China’s economy has become an increasingly important element in the global economic development and integration. Against this backdrop, the impacts of RMB’s appreciation on China’s trade attract great attention.Before this reform of RMB, there has emerged a vast theoretical literature concentrated on the impacts of RMB’s revaluation. However, relatively little research has been undertaken on the empirical analysis of this issue. Cyn-Young Park (2005), an economist in Asian Development Bank, analyzed macroeconomic impact of a “one-off ” appreciation of the RMB against the dollar using the Oxford Economic Forecasting model. This work may shed light on the dynamics between global imbalances and revaluation. The OEF model framework allows simulation analyses based on the global econometric structure, which will provide some quantitative results for the impacts of a revaluation on the concerned economies, such as the PRC, Japan, US, and other Asian countries. The stability of equilibrium state may be damaged when the regime shifts, which, however, cannot be studied in this model. Zhang, a researcher in Chinese Academy of these results suggested that the impact of a revaluation on China’s economy might change in the proportion of an appreciation’s scale. In fact, in the short term, the reasonableness of this proportionate result should be doubted.The main body of existing literature, however, has so far mostly centered on quantitative discussion describing the relation between trade and exchange rate. There has been surprisingly little empirical work that focus on the exchange rate regime shift, especially from pegging to the US dollar to a managed floating regime, No existing appropriate model or method can be found to support this kind of research directly. Therefore, some indirect methods should be experimented for studying this issue with the substitute variables introduced.In this paper, scenario analysis technique is used to give a sensitivity analysis of China’s trade to the appreciation of RMB. The first type of scenarios is a hypothetic scenario being related with the current appreciation of RMB by 2%; while the second one that belongs to the historical scenario is based on the historical event---the Japanese yen’s variability after subscribing “Plaza Accord”.The remaining part of thispaper is organized as follows. The theory and method of scenario analyses are introduced in Section 2. Models and their evaluation are outlined in Section 3. Forecasting results from scenarios analyses are presented in Section 4.Scenario analysis (Committee on the Global Financial System, 2000) is a kind of stress testing which serves to estimate potential extreme losses of a portfolio value and give helpful suggestions to the decision makers in risk management of a company or a financial institution. Generally, scenario is a means to explore the future economic situation, and identify what might happen and how an organization can act or react upon future developments.The RMB’s appreciation should undoubtedly generate extensive and far-reaching implication for China’s economy, especially for exports. This research should be based on establishing and testing econometric models. We establish the evaluatd models for export and trading forms respectively. In the following empirical work, these models are used in the scenario analysis of China’s trade. The sample data ar e collected over the period from Jan. 2005. Data on export and import are taken from China’s Customs Statistics. The exchange rate data are obtained from the University of British Columbia’s website.In this paper, the scenario analysis is used to analyze the effects of RMB’s appreciation on China’s trade in 2005 and 2006. Our evidence shows that China’s exports would continue to keep a strong increasing trend in the hypothetical scenario being a one-off appreciation of 2%. Seen from the current situation about RMB, the similar favorable results may be expected to occur if RMB exchange rate regime would mark a sound operation. Therefore, we conclude that China’s eaports would not be affected much by the current appreciation of RMB, and would keep an increasi ng trend in 2005. On the other hand, despite the rapid development of China’s exports which not only benefit from China’s strong economic development, but also from the strong international competitiveness of export goods, there still exist the risk due to the obvious sustained drop of growth in 2006, which may impede the rapid growth of exports. Domestic demand should also be promoted to counteract the risk from the fluctuation of international market.By People's Daily Online; The author, Chen Feixiang, is the Director of the Economic and Financial Deparment of Tongji University.JEL Classification: C53, F17, F31Key words: RMB’s appreciation, China’s trade, Scenario analysis人民币升值的影响因为中国的国民综合经济实力不断增长，中国的货币——人民币也开始升值。
外文翻译------人民币升值对股价的影响
中文3300字本科毕业论文外文原文外文题目：The Impact of Renminbi Appreciation on Stock Prices in China出处：Emerging Markets Finance & Trade作者：Chien-Chung Nieh and Hwey-Yun YauABSTRACT: Since removal of the peg in July 2005, China has entered a new era of a managed floating exchange rate system. Although many observers have raised concerns about the impa ct of such a policy change on China’s trade surplus, less attention has been paid to its effects on financial markets. This paper investigates the impact of recent renminbi appreciation on stock prices in China since removal of the peg, using threshold cointegration and momentum threshold error-correction model (M-TECM). The results clearly illustrate that no short-run causal relation exists, and an asymmetric causal relationship running from the renminbi/U.S. dollar exchange rate to Chinese Shanghai A-share stock prices in the long run is based on M-TECM. Policy and the broader implications of the findings are discussed.KEY WORDS: asymmetric causality, exchange rates, momentum threshold error-correction model (M-TECM), stock prices.China’s currency, the r enminbi (RMB), which for the previous decade was tightly pegged at RMB8.28 to the U.S. dollar, was revalued to RMB8.11 per U.S. dollar on July 21,2005. Following removal of the peg, due in part to political pressure from the United States and the United Kingdom, the Chinese authorities also announced that the renminbi would be pegged to a basket of foreign currencies, rather than being strictly tied to the U.S. dollar (USD), and it would be allowed to float within a narrow 0.3 percent daily band against this basket.The revaluation of the RMB/USD exchange rate has marked a new era of a managed floating exchange rate system. The significance of exchange rate system reform is that the shift to a flexible exchange rate regime, especially the adoption of acurrency band that refers to a basket of currencies, provides the monetary authorities with a certain degree of freedom in implementing policies. The new system would most likely act as a crawling peg, rather than being strictly fixed, allowing China greater flexibility either through adjustments in the crawling peg regime that has involved the basket of currencies or through reweighting of the basket. Observers have frequently suggested that the yuan is undervalued, often on the basis of purchasing power parity arguments (Cline 2005; Goldstein 2004; Goldstein and Lardy 2006), contributing to growing large trade surpluses and portfolio capital inflows. As investment (both domestic and foreign) boomed in 2003–4 and inflation accelerated, some argued that rapid RMB appreciation would be helpful in dealing with the increasing pressure of domestic inflation on the economy (Frankel 2007; McKinnon 2006).However, it was also argued that further RMB appreciation might bring a significant decline in China’s exports. Hence, Chinese policymakers have been facing the dilemma of choosing between the two options (i.e., RMB appreciation vs. depreciation). Credible, gradual RMB appreciation is recommended as an alternative strategy (see Kutan and Tsai 2007).Although much attention has been focused on trade flows, Chinese policymakers face a similar dilemma in terms of the impact of expected renminbi appreciation on domestic financial markets, in particular, the stock market. For instance, if the exchange rate appreciates, exporters are likely to lose competitiveness on international markets, causing a drop in profits and hence in stock prices. On the other hand, depreciation of the renminbi is likely to cause importers to lose competitiveness on domestic markets (consumers may not be able to afford ―higher priced‖ imported products), causing a decline in profits and hence in stock prices.Due to the mutual effects of exchange rates on stock prices, the impact of recent changes in the renminbi on domestic stock prices is an important concern in policy circles and among investors. The purpose of this paper is to address these issues and examine whether an asymmetric causal relationship exists between the RMB/USD exchange rate and stock prices since removal of the peg.Literature ReviewThe issue of whether stock prices and exchange rates are related has long been studied. Two major theories, the traditional and portfolio approaches, are applied to test the dynamic relationship between exchange rates and stock prices. The traditional approach argues that a depreciation of domestic currency makes local firms more competitive, which leads to an increase in exports, and consequently raises stock prices. The traditional approach implies that exchange rates lead stock prices. The portfolio approach, on the contrary, argues that an increase in stock prices induces investors to demand more domestic assets and thereby causes appreciation of the domestic currency, which implies that stock prices lead exchange rates. The ―stock-oriented‖ model of e xchange rates by Branson (1983) views the exchange rate as serving to equate supply and demand for assets such as stocks and bonds.Empirical evidence using both approaches has yielded no consensus on the validity of either theory. For example, Mok (1993) found weak bidirectional causality between stock prices and exchange rates, while Bahmani-Oskooee and Sohrabian (1992) and Nieh and Lee (2001) argued for bidirectional causality between stock prices and exchange rates in the short run, but not in the long run. In addition, some studies found a weak or no association between stock prices and exchange rates (e.g., Bartov and Bodnar 1994; Fernandez 2006; Franck and Young 1972).More recently, it has been suggested that some of the mixed results may be driven by extensive use of linear conventional time-series methodologies, which fail to consider information across regions, and thus lead to inefficient estimations and lower testing power. Recent studies therefore allow for a nonlinear causal relationship between the two variables and also use threshold cointegration methods, which further allow for nonlinear adjustment to long-run equilibrium (Balke and Fomby 1997). MethodologyThis paper employs threshold cointegration techniques as elaborated by Enders and Granger (1998) and Enders and Siklos (2001), which extend the residual-based, two-stage estimation method developed by Engle and Granger (1987). The difference between them lies in the formulation of linearity and nonlinearity from their second stage of unit-root tests. The nonlinear model of Enders and Granger (1998) and Enders and Siklos (2001) can be expressed asΔμt=I tρ1μt-1+(1-It)ρ2μt-1+ΣγiΔμt-1+εtEquation (1) is basically a regime-switching model—a threshold autoregressive (TAR) model of the disequilibrium error, where the test for the threshold of the disequilibriumerror is termed a threshold cointegration test. The result of rejection of the null hypothesis of ρ1= ρ2 = 0 implies the existence of a cointegration relationship between the variables.This enables us to proceed with a further test for symmetric adjustment (i.e., H0: ρ1= ρ2), using a standard F-test. When the coefficients of regime adjustment are equal (symmetric adjustment), Equation (1) converges the prevalent augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. Rejecting both the null hypotheses of ρ1 = ρ2 = 0 and ρ1 = ρ2 implies the existence of threshold cointegration with asymmetric adjustment. Instead of estimating Equation (1) with the Heaviside indicator depending on the level of μt–1, the decay could also be allowed depending on the previous period’s change in μt–1. The Heaviside indicator could then be specified as I t= 1 if Dμt–1 ≥ τ and I t= 0 if Dμt–1≤τ. According to Enders and Granger (1998), this model is especially valuable when the adjustment is asymmetric, such that the series exhibits more ―momentum‖ in one direction than the other. This model is then termed a momentum threshold autoregressive (M-TAR) model. The TAR model is used to capture a deep-cycle process if, for example, positive deviations are more prolonged than negative deviations. On the other hand, the M-TAR model allows autoregressive decay to depend on Dμt–1. As such, M-TAR representation may capture sharp movements in a sequence. As there is generally no presumption as whether to use the TAR or M-TAR model, the recommendation is to select the adjustment mechanism by a model selection criterion such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC) or the Schwarz Bayesian criterion (SBC).Granger Causality TestsGiven the threshold cointegration results, we next apply the Granger causality tests using the advanced momentum threshold error-correction model (M-TECM). The M-TECM is expressed asΔY it=α+γ1Z t1+γ2Z t-t+ΣδiΔY1t-i+ΣθiΔY2t-i+νtBased on Equation (2), Granger causality tests are employed to examine whetherall coefficients of D Y1,t–i or D Y2,t–i are jointly statistically different from zero based on a standard F-test or whether the γj coefficients of the error-correction term are significant. Because Granger causality tests are sensitive to the selection of lag length, applying the AIC criterion to determine the appropriate lag lengths, we find empirically that the lag lengths of k1 and k2 equal two (i.e., k1 = k2 = 2). The results clearly illustrate that no short-run causal relationship exists between EX and CHStock (insignificant to reject both H0: δ1=δ2= 0 and H0: θ1=θ2= 0). Besides, there also exists a unidirectional causality running from EX to CHStock in the long run, when the difference in the previous disequilibrium term is above the threshold value of 0.0048. (H0: θ1 = θ2 = γ1 = 0 is rejected at the 10 percent significance level.) On the other hand, the null hypotheses ofδ1=δ2=γ1= 0，δ1=δ2=γ2= 0 and θ1=θ2=γ2= 0cannot be rejected. Furthermore, the significant finding rejecting the null hypothesis of γ1= γ2 in CHStock is consistent with the finding of our previous M-TART estimations and reconfirms the existence of an asymmetric causal relationship between the two variables considered. Nonetheless, the empirical results of conventional ECM estimations show that CHStock and EX are bidirectional causal related in the long run; whereas, there exists a unidirectional causality running from EX to CHStock in the short run.Conclusions and Policy ImplicationsThis paper investigates the causal relationship between the renminbi/U.S. dollar exchange rate and stock prices in China since removal of the peg. Our results can be summarized as follows: first, we find a threshold cointegration link between the exchange rate and Chinese stock prices. This finding implies that it is possible to predict one market from another, which is inconsistent with the efficient market hypothesis. Second, there is a discontinuous adjustment to a long-run equilibrium in two separate regimes, indicating an asymmetric causal relationship between the two variables considered. Third, there exists a unidirectional causal relationship running from exchange rates to stock prices in the long run, suggesting that RMB/USD appreciation has a significant impact on stock prices. In particular, the estimated results show that the speed of the adjustment process toward equilibrium is faster in the Shanghai A-share stock market.The results have important implications. First, policymakers need to consider the impact of exchange rate changes on financial markets in designing appropriate policy strategies. Given that the exchange rate is no longer fixed, the authorities consider the impact of exchange rate changes not only on trade flows but also on financial markets.Second, our results have broader theoretical implications. We find no evidence to support the portfolio approach. On the other hand, although the findings show a unidirectional causal relationship running from exchange rates to stock prices in the long run, this does not completely follow using the traditional approach in the literature either. The traditional approach argues that a depreciation of domestic currency makes local firms more competitive, leading to an increase in exports, and consequently raising stock prices. On the contrary, the empirical results shown in this paper reveal that the appreciation of exchange rates leads stock prices because most companies listed on the Chinese A-share stock market are importers rather than exporters.译文：人民币升值对股价的影响摘要：自2005年7月取消了人民币对美元的盯住制度，中国已经进入了一个浮动汇率管理制度的新时代。
人民币升值外文译文
《xx货币：经济问题分析》概述诸多经济学家争论着人民币升值是有助于恢复世界经济平衡的一个重要因素。
他们还敦促中国实施政策使消费者要求，而非出口和固定资产投资，这一主要经济增长来源。
有人认为人民币升值是促进中国进口额的一种方式，可以促成全球经济的快速复苏。
中国官员承认再平衡经济的需求，他们强烈反对国际上对升值和通货的压力，称之为“贸易保护主义”。
有人把这一政策归于关心中国政府实施政策改变过快导致社会不稳定。
当奥巴马政权已迫使中国升值其货币时，也鼓励它继续购买美国国债。
截止2010年7月中国共持有8470亿美元国债，是美国最大的国债持有国。
一些分析显示尽管中国的货币升值能够推动美国对中国的出口，它也可以减少中国购买美国国债的需要，能够提高美国的利率。
这将导致中国制造产品提高对美国消费者的价格，同样提高对于中国制造的输入美国公司生产他们产品的价格。
诸多经济学家分析，即使中国显著地升值其货币，美国也仍需增加其储备并减少国内需求（特别是预算赤字），为了减少长期的贸易不平衡，中国将不得不降低其储备并增加消费。
xx货币的历史背景在1994年之前，中国保持着双重汇率制度。
由一个官方的固定汇率制度（由政府使用）和由进出口商在外汇掉期市场使用的一篮子货币制度所构成，尽管为了进口管制极大地限制了外汇所得，导致出现大规模外汇黑市。
这两个汇率有显著区别。
1993年官方兑美元汇率为5.77元与此相对的是外汇掉期市场上的8.7元。
中国的双重汇率制度（以及其他政策）因限制了中国在外国方面的进口而受美国批评。
1994年，中国政府统一了两种汇率制度，最初为兑美元8.7元，最后到1997年为止被允许升值到8.28并相对稳定到2005年7月。
人民币在活期存款（交易）的基础上变得可自由兑换，但非固定资产账户，这意味着元对于投资目的而言不是通常可以获得的。
自1994年至2005年，中国维持了人民币紧盯美元政策意图给中国的外贸和投资改善相对稳定的环境（这个政策防止汇率的大波动）———一个许多发展中国家在它们发展初级阶段所使用的政策。
2022考研英语阅读人民币的崛起
2022考研英语阅读人民币的崛起the rise of the redback人民币的崛起IN 1965 Valry Giscard dEstaing, then Frances finance minister, complained that America, asthe issuer of the worlds reserve currency, enjoyed an exorbitant privilege. Chinaspresident, Hu Jintao, does not have quite the same way with words. But on the eve of his visitto America this week he told two of the countrys newspapers that the international currencysystem was a product of the past. Something can be a product of the past without being athing of the past. But his implication was clear: the dollars role reflects Americas historicalclout, not its present stature.在1965年时，瓦勒里季斯卡德斯坦还是法国财政部部长，当时他埋怨到作为世界储备货币发行国的美国，享有者一种嚣张的特权。
不过中国国家主席***用另外的说法表达了这个意思在本周出访美国前夕，他告知两家国内的报纸说国际货币体系是旧时代的产物。
有些东西在没有成为陈迹之前，就已经成为过去的产物。
但是他的意思很清晰：美元反映的是美国在过去的影响力，但是不现在的状况。
Mr Hu is right that Americas currency punches above its economys diminished weight in theworld. Americas share ofglobal output , trade and even financial assets is shrinking, as emerging economies flourish. But many of those economies,such as South Korea, still sell their exports for dollars; many, including China, still peg theircurrencies to the greenback, however loosely; and about 60% of the worlds foreign-exchangereserves remain in dollars.胡先生是对的，美元地位与其在世界经济中不断下降的份额不相称。
原文翻译
Surplus ça change多变盈余What would happen if China revalued the yuan? The past offers some clues人民币如果升值会是什么结果？有历史为鉴Apr 22nd 2010 | From The Economist print editionA BIG export-oriented economy is booming but its trading partners are livid. Year after year, they point out, it runs large current-account surpluses. The country regards itself as an export powerhouse whose goods are prized abroad. Others castigate it for mercantilism. Some argue that it subsidises its exports unfairly by giving exporters credit at cheap rates and by keeping its currency artificially undervalued. Pressure builds on the country to revalue its currency and boost domestic consumption, which makes up an unusually small share of its GDP.一个外向型经济大国日益繁荣，不过其贸易伙伴勃然大怒。
他们指出，该国年复一年地拥有巨额的经常账户盈余。
这个国家自认为是出口强国，生产的商品在国外广受赞誉。
其他人斥责该国重商主义。
有人指责该国向出口商发放低息贷款，对出口部门进行不当补贴。
人民币升值问题中英文对照外文翻译文献
人民币升值问题中英文对照外文翻译文献(文档含英文原文和中文翻译)译文:运用经济伦理分析人民币升值问题摘要自2008年全球金融危机爆发以来，人民币兑美元汇率已引起各方关注。
由于平衡的国际收支顺差，中国积累了大量外汇储备，且在人民币升值方面有压力。
关于人民币升值问题已提出了一系列相互交织的经济和道德理论并且在中国受到广泛关注。
本文是一个跨学科的研究，说明了跨经济学与伦理学之间的关系。
本文分析了主要经济因素对人民币汇率走势及其升值的影响，然后讨论人民币升值的伦理问题，并总结了一些政策建议，以解决经济和伦理问题。
关键词：经济伦理，人民币，汇率，建议一、引言在当今开放的经济中，受对外贸易中的汇率和其他经济制度的影响，已引起经济机构的关注并受到国家的一致好评的中国学者和他国学者都是一样的。
根据宏观经济理论，并给出了一些标准假设，相对于外国产品价格，汇率的变化更会影响国内商品的价格，因此，财政支出结构将受到影响。
一般来说，本币贬值能够刺激出口同时抑制进口。
如果进口和出口的需求对价格有弹性，这将改善贸易平衡。
在中国，20世纪90年代，人民币的贬值导致了国际收支逆差的平衡受到明显的影响。
对于廉价的出口带给中国的竞争优势和短时间内国际收支赤字变成了盈余，使得官方外汇储备的不断增加。
在最近的几年，人民币加速升值并没有导致出口量的下降，而美国并没有通过付款汇率变动的平衡取得预期的改善。
同时，该人民币升值引发了一系列经济和伦理上的问题。
事实上，在人民币升值带来的经济的影响的基础上伦理问题和经济问题可以合并在一起作为一个伦理问题。
本文作为一个跨学科的研究，将会说明经济学与伦理学之间的相互关系。
自2008年全球金融危机爆发以来，人民币兑美元汇率已经引起了多方关注，西方国家在中国人民币升值方面施加给中国巨大的压力。
一些压力涉及到最有争议的问题——中国–美关系，例如：美国人认为人民币价值被低估，至使中国的国际收支顺差是建立在美国人经历一个巨大的国际收支赤字的基础上的。
人民币升值对纺织服装出口的影响外文翻译文献
人民币升值对纺织服装出口的影响外文翻译文献(文档含中英文对照即英文原文和中文翻译)Trade liberalization and patterns of strategic adjustment in the US textiles and clothing industryBelay SeyoumU.S.A.The overall environment facing the US TC industry will be one of rapidly changing market conditions and technological innovation. With the phase out of quotas and growing number of trade agreements, the US TC industry is being exposed to intense competition in export and domestic markets. This is likely to lead domestic industries/labor to demand intervention by national governments to mitigate the adverse impact of trade liberalization .Chinese leaders have expressed strong opposition to outside pressure on their currency policy, calling it a form of protectionism and interference in China’s domestic economic policy, and some have even questioned whether the currency is undervalued at all. However, on June 19, 2010, the Chinese central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBC) stated that, based on current economic conditions, it had decided to “proceed further with reform of the RMB exchange rate regime and to enhance the RMB exchange rate flexibility.” It ruled out any large one-time revaluations, stating “it is important to avoid any sharp and massive fluctuations of the RMB exchan ge rate,” in part so that Chinese corporations could more easily adjust (such as through upgrading) to an appreciation of the currency. Many observers contend the timing of the RMB announcement was intended in part to prevent China’s currency policyfrom being a central focus of the G-20 summit in Toronto from June 26-27, 2010.On June 22, 2010, the RMB appreciated by 0.43% against the dollar (to 6.80 yuan) over the previous day, which, at the time, was the largest daily rise since reforms were implemented in July 2005. However, on the following day (June 23) it depreciated to 6.81 yuan. As indicated in Figure 3, the yuan’s exchange rate with the dollar has gone up and down over the past few months, but overall, it has appreciated by 1.9% through October 1, 2010, with most of that appreciation occurring in September. 3 Some analysts contend that the appreciation of the currency in September 2010 has had more to do with Chinese concerns over possible congressional action on the currency than economic considerations.In spite of the substantial job losses, the US TC industry remains technologically advanced partly due to increased productivity resulting from advances in technology and design capabilities. Textile production is capital intensive and modern technology is essential to meet the increasing for high-quality products. Over the last few years, US textiles and apparel firms have substantially increased their investment to maintain modern manufacturing facilities as well as improve production and marketing capabilities in order to maximize their inherent advantages to market proximity. In apparel, low skill production jobs have moved to low-cost locations offshore while the more skilled ones have been retained. To successfully adapt to the new environment, US TC industries need to capitalize on their sources of competitive advantage. They need to develop a more flexible operational arrangement, meet high standards in product innovation and generally develop a more change-seeking business culture (Kilduff, 2005).An important survival tool for US TC firms is to expand their potential market by offering new product designs and product categories. Manufacturers must try to bring a steady stream of products to market that are in line with the taste, preferences of the consumer. They can also expand their market potential by offering new product categories. Two of the fastest growing apparel segments in the US, for example, have been the women’s plus and men’s big and tall segments (Driscoll, 2004). Plus-size apparel marketing was estimated at $47 billion in 2005 accounting for 20% of total apparel market. It is important to identify the firm’s target customers and assess whether the firm is successfully addressing their needs.US TC firms should target a narrow segment of the market that provides the best opportunity for success. In textiles, the focus should be on a few specialized segments such as carpets, nonwovens and technical textiles. Similarly, apparel producers should increase their focus on core products, reduce vertical integration to shed overhead costs, and establish alliances with other firms to consolidate resources and increase market share.Finally, in view of rising incomes and high growth rates in many developing countries such as China, Brazil, and India, there are potential export market opportunities for US textile and apparel products. US export interests may be served by seeking improved access to the retail distribution systems of developing countries. US textile firms should also be able to use Mexico to export to the European Union and other countries, taking advantage of the Mexico-EU trade agreement. Since the conclusion of NAFTA, a number of Asian and European firms have produced certain products in Mexico in order to export to the US market.This paper suggests a demand pull model as a basis for developing anetwork structure in the clothing industry. In a demand pull model, consumer demand is the driver of sales unlike the supply push model whereby the manufacturer pushes goods to the retailer regardless of consumer demand.Retail companies have become powerful due to their sufficient capital and marketing expertise to build loyalty among consumers. They are the lead firm in view of their central role in the organizational network. The lead clothing retailer integrates industrial capabilities such as sourcing of textiles, design, product branding and its relations with consumers enables it to keep abreast of fashion consumption trends.The lead firm conveys its requirements to these changing trends (changes in style, material requirements) to its suppliers or subcontractors (Table 7). It also provides assistance with the purchasing of capital equipment and technology necessary to produce apparel in accordance with market demand. The fragmented webs of suppliers and subcontractors are bound together through information technology, online data sharing, joint product development, and collaborative forecasting, planning and replenishment activities. Retailers will hold less inventory as shipments become smaller and more frequent since point of sale data is directly transmitted to the manufacturer/supplier who will produce and ship garments as it is needed. This model shows the role of the retailer as an intermediary integrating the functions of design, textile sourcing, branding and as facilitator of apparel production through a web of suppliers/subcontractors. Such restructuring through technological improvements and information technology is one means of succeeding in an increasingly competitive environment. The horizontally structured, mass production methods no longer ensure future competitiveness.The lion’s share of the benefits from quota elimination is expected toaccrue to China. Its low labor cost, high productivity, range and flexibility of services as well as efficient supplier networks will make China the supplier of choice. About 87% of apparel executives that participated in a cotton sourcing summit in Miami in February 2004, agreed that China will soon account for 50–90% of all apparel sold in the US market (National Labor Committee, 2004). This means rationalization of production and a massive consolidation of vendors. Other winners are likely to include India and Pakistan in narrow segments of the TC industry. The elimination of quotas is also likely to lead to lower prices for consumers in view of the absence of quota costs which is often a significant part of the cost of TC sold in the US market. Well-known brands may still hold market value since they are not subject to retail price deflation. It is important for TC firms to evaluate their internal capabilities such as sourcing, manufacturing, logistics, transportation etc. in order to develop an action plan for the post-quota world.Exporters from Latin America, Africa and the Caribbean are likely to lose market share to China since they largely compete on price (not quality) and lack the capability to produce high value added products. Even with the introduction of safeguards on a range of products that are of export interest to these countries, their US market share has declined since the phase out of quotas. With the complete removal of quotas in 2008, it is difficult for these countries to compete on price. Since the US government lifted quotas in 2002 on 29 categories, for e xample, China’s market share (in these categories) jumped from just 9% (2002) to 65% (2003) while prices paid by US retailers (for apparel from China) dropped by 48% (National Labor Committee, 2004). In cotton dressing gowns (quotas removed) China’s share in 2003 jumped from 25% to 39% while that of Caribbean countries fell from 13% to a mere 3%. Inthe first 12 months after the phase out of quotas, China’s market share in apparel rose by 59% in value while that of many Central and South American countries showed a sharp decline.What are the implications for TC firms in countries that are vulnerable to competition from China? First, they should capitalize on their proximity to the US market. Their ability to offer lower transport cost, lower lead times as well as duty free entry to the US market may attract the fashion-oriented segment of the US industry. This will depend on access to good local transport infrastructure to get goods to market as well as advanced telecommunications systems to link suppliers and customers. Local firms and governments need to collaborate in creating a climate which is conducive to business and to develop infrastructure to attract and retain TC industries that are so vital in generating exports and employment.Secondly, low wages do not necessarily provide a comparative advantage with respect to China. Firms should develop new capabilities in areas in which China does not have a comparative advantage (yarn, and silk non-apparel). This requires, inter alia, investment in modern production methods and development of competitive sources of local raw materials. Even in product areas in which China is expanding its exports, developing country suppliers that enhance their skills, technology, supply chains and marketing capabilities (through joint ventures, licensing arrangements) faster than China can still maintain their shares to the US market.Thirdly, an important strategic consideration that limits the competitive impact of China is the need on the part of multinationals to diversify their risk portfolios. US manufacturers and retailers are likely to adopt a diversified risk adjusted sourcing strategy that balances cost, speed to market as well aspolitical and economic stability. They may not be prepared to rely on China for critical inputs beyond a certain threshold of risk. Furthermore, Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean could be attractive options for US companies in some fashion sensitive segments of the industry where quick response or fast turnaround is important.Finally, existing US rules of origin requirements to qualify for free access to the US market have had unintended consequences. One of the requirements is that they have to use US yarn and fabric. This has had the effect of making their exports less competitive. The US may have to modify its rules of origin to allow developing countries to import from Asia or other competitive sources without losing their preferential status.美国纺织品和服装产业的贸易自由化和战略调整模式作者：贝蕾·塞尤姆美国纺织品和服装行业面临的是一个市场条件快速变化、科技不断创新的环境。
关于RMB升值英文解析
WASHINGTON - The two-way fluctuation expectation of RMB exchange rate indicated that the Chinese currency had become more market-oriented, a senior Chinese central bank official said on Thursday."There are two-way fluctuation expectations of RMB exchange rate in the recent spot and forward exchange rate markets," Yi Gang, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China,told a press briefing at the fifth round of the China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED).This new trend indicated that the Chinese currency became more market-oriented as there had been a unilateral appreciation expectation of its exchange rate for a long time, he added.Yi told reporters that the value of RMB against US dollar had nominally appreciated by 2 percent since the beginning of this year, and the RMB real effective exchange rate (REER) had increased by about 6 percent at the same period, highlighting a substantial progress toward the market-oriented currency exchange rate reform.The central bank official stressed that China would continue to promote the RMB exchange rate reform and make progress in the capital account convertibility.As a very important feature of such reform, the supply-and-demand relation in the market will play a more important role in deciding the exchange rate of RMB, he added.Yi also said that China was fully prepared to tackle the challenge, such as capital outflows, amid prospects of US Federal Reserve's withdrawal of quantitative easing later this year.He noted that China had abundant liquidity buffer with a high reserve requirement ratio, and would maintain prudent monetary policy to provide appropriate liquidity for Chinese money markets.US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said last month the central bank could start scaling back its $85 billion monthly bond purchasing program later this year, if the economy continued to progress as the Fed expected.The tapering plan has caused investors to withdraw money from emerging markets and restructure their portfolios, stoking volatility in currency, bond and equity markets around the globe.。
人民币升值对中国经济的影响(英文版)
International FinanceEffects of RMB Appreciation on the Chinese economicNAME： CHEN SISISTUDENT NUMBER： GBX1307JOSAI UNIVERSITYEffects of RMB Appreciation on the Chinese economicSince 2002, many countries like Japan and America have suggested that Renminbi(RMB)should increase in value. In fact, the exchange rate of RMB became higher and higher in recent years. The exchange rate was beyond 8 in 2005.but this year, It is only about 6. The appreciation of the RMB exchange rate and the corresponding impact on china’s economy are becoming the focus issues of international economy, and also has become the major theoretical and practical issues for China to deal with the increasingly complex international economic situation which must be faced up to. It has become a hot topic over the world. RMB appreciation affects the Chinese economy and the lives of Chinese people. Does it have a good effect or not? On this, the United States' 40-year history of pressuring Japan to let the yen appreciate against the dollar is instructive. So for RMB appreciation, we should learn the lessons of history and correctly assess the pros and cons of RMB appreciation. RMB appreciation is like a double-edged sword; on one hand, it has a positive effect on the Chinese Economy. On the other hand，it will have a negative impact. So I think it's very necessary to discuss the matter of RMB appreciation.1.The impacts on the economy of ChinaThe positive impact on the economy of RMB Appreciation1.1.1 The appreciation of the RMB will increase our personal wealth benefiting the people and improving people's living standards. Appreciation of the RMB improved terms of trade that it will make imported products relatively cheaper. With the continuous economic development and people's rising living standards, more and more people like vacations, tourism or education abroad. After the revaluation of the RMB, to study or travel abroad will spend less money than before or will be able to do more things than ever before with the same money. Just as Argentine, they traveled all over the world after the appreciation of thePeso (Argentine currency) in 80's last century, because they become "the rich countries of the South". Furthermore, Chinese people will feel richer as the value of their money grows and further stimulates domestic demand. Of greater strategic significance is the fact that the appreciation of the RMB will make the Chinese labor price higher.1.1.2 It is helpful to reduce burden of the debt. Since the implement of reform and opening policy, China has borrowed a lot of foreign debt in order to accelerate economic development. According to data published by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, China's foreign debt reached374.66 billion dollars at the end of 2008, an increase of 18%. After RMB appreciation, the outstanding external debt servicing will be required to present a corresponding reduction in the number of RMB, easing the pressure on China's foreign debt to a certain extent. The appreciation of RMB surely makes foreign currency-denominated debt shrink, accordingly reducing debt burden of the government and enterprises.1.1.3 The appreciation of the RMB will conducive to accelerate industrial upgrading and improve the economic structure in the long run. The appreciation of the RMB means that the price of various domestic resources, especially land and labor, will go up in relative terms and this will speed up necessary adjustments to the commodity mix and domestic industry. So the RMB appreciation will be bond to trigger an upgrading or conversion of the industrial structure. More and more domestic enterprises will try to focus domestic production on more high-value added commodities. Thus one of the long-term desirable effect on China economy is what the appreciation of RMB will made China a more advanced or high-value added economy and a more reasonable industrial structure.1.1.4 The appreciation of the RMB will optimize the export trade structure and expand domestic demand. RMB appreciation will be disadvantageous to the labor-intensive export products. But in the longrun, RMB appreciation will spur export companies to rely more on technological progress and increase of products added-value. Some enterprises which rely on low-cost competition with low-tech, high pollution and high energy-consuming will be squeezed out of the international market. Accordingly the RMB appreciation will help to enhance China's export trade structure.1.1.5 The appreciation of the RMB will promote enterprises to perfect their management, enhance the capability of independent innovation and improve international competitiveness and risk-resisting ability. Under the circumstance of the RMB appreciation, the enterprises can not succeed in the international market if they don’t cut the cost of their products. The feasible way to cut the cost of their products should be taken are enhance management, improve productivity in order to enhance competitiveness. At the same time, the reform of RMB exchange rate regime requires export companies continue to develop high-tech and high value-added products.1.1.6 With the adjustment of the RMB exchange rate, the prices of China's export products will certainly rise. Although it can not solve thoroughly trade surplus of Sino-US trade, it will serve to ease the trade frictions with the United States, Japan and other major trading partners. It would show trading partners that China is not attempting to manipulate its exchange rate, thereby lessening the threat of protectionist measures against China's exports.1.2 The negative influence on the economy of RMB AppreciationNow China is the most populous country and the fifth-largest trading country in the world. Although evidences have shown that the RMB is indeed undervalued and appreciation would not be sufficient to weaken the competitive power of the economy, the appreciation of RMB will bring about some negative influences on Chinese economy.1.2.1 The appreciation of RMB will reduce China’s export and increases its import, further affect the economic growth goals. A numberof industries in China are still in the labor-intensive mode of production. The expansion of exports relay mainly on price competitiveness. After the continuous appreciation of RMB, China's commodity export relative prices could rise and the comparatively competitive powers come from those could to be weakened, resulting in export reduce. Meanwhile, the price of import commodities in Chinese currency could drop and stimulate import to increase. As a result, an appreciation of RMB could cut China’s current account surplus, and it will crimp China’s growth.1.2.2 Damage to basic industries lack of competitiveness. In China different industries have different endurances to the shocks of RMB appreciation. With the appreciation of the RMB, the price of China's labor-intensive exports corresponding increase. Thereby this undoubtedly will make the kinds of industries such as the agriculture sector and automobile sector which may be easily affected by a revaluation suffer enormous. So if the RMB is sharply appreciated, it will affect the China’s noncompetitive agriculture sector and state-owned enterprises (SOEs). In addition, the appreciation of the RMB would be harm to China's some strategic industries.1.2.3 Deteriorating domestic job situation and increasing labor pressure. Full employment, price stability and the balance of international payments is the world's countries common objectives. Especially full employment is the most problem the government concerned in China. Currently, cheap labor costs have been served as the biggest contribution to the China’s surging exports. With the appreciation of RMB, the cheap labor advantage of China will be challenged. The appreciation of the RMB would lose millions of jobs in China, and worse the China’s already grim employment situation. This might make the unemployment problem more serious and may even lead to economic (and political) instability.1.2.4 Suffered the loss of China's foreign exchange reserves. By the end of 2007, China's foreign exchange reserves have reached 15282 billion dollars. If the appreciation of RMB is to dollar-denominatedforeign exchange, foreign exchange reserves will be shrinking. China will suffer huge foreign exchange losses. Adequate foreign exchange reserves are an important sign that China's economic strength has been continuously strengthened. It is also a powerful guarantee for China to participate in global economy. However, once the RMB appreciation, China's huge foreign exchange reserves will face the possibility of shrinking.2. Japan’s experience and lessons for ChinaThese circumstances China now faces are similar to Japan's situation at the time of the Nixon Shock. Japan experienced a sharp appreciation of the Yen which led to the economic bubble in the late 1980s and then underwent a long recession (the “lost decade”). There is worry about if the RMB is sharply appreciated for a very short period, China might take the old road of recession that Japan experienced.2.1 Experience of appreciation of Japan YenMore than 30 years ago, the Yen appreciated all the way from ¥360:$US1 in August 1971 to ¥80:$US1 in April 1995. The overvalued Yen, however, destabilized the Japanese financial system, the bubble economy of the late 1980s was followed by a deflationary slump and a zero-interest liquidity trap in the 1990s.Japan suffered from its exchange rate appreciation seriously. Facing the upward pressure on the yen’s appreciation, Japan tried to stabilize the exchange rate and maintain a pegged rate system. Initially, Japan intervened in the foreign exchange market to sell Yen and buy dollars. Then, in order to offset the adverse impact of the appreciation on economic activities, Japanese Monetary authorities adopted a loose monetary policy to stimulate the economy and reduce the trade surplus. Thus the increasing money supply and massive interventions in the foreign exchange market gave rise to excessive liquidity, which was channeled into stock and real estate markets. Consequently the “economic bubble” was followed in the late 1980s and after the collapse of thebubble, Japan entered a prolonged recession.2.2 The lessons of Japan’s experience and the apocalypse for ChinaAs described above, these periods are somewhat similar to the recent economic situation China faced, just as Japan was in the early 1970s and the mid-1980s. So what is the apocalypse should China learn from Japan's experience? The lessons of Japan’s experience and the apocalypse for China mainly may be as follow.1. To deal with the Yen appreciation, there was strong opposition or concern about the possible adverse impacts of a sharp appreciation of the Yen in Japan. Instead of taking the initiative to response to the Yen appreciation, the passive Yen appreciation resulted Japan in sinking into being forced to sign the agreement of "Plaza Accord" which led to Japanese economic bubble in late of 1980. It is important and considerable for China to take the initiative to response to the RMB appreciation to avoid the RMB fluctuate violently which Japan has experienced last century under the "Plaza Accord".2. Due to serious concern about the negative impact of its appreciation on the economy, Japan authority believed that one of the principal goals of monetary policy was to stabilize the exchange rate and try to lighten the pressure of Yen appreciation as much as possible by adopting a loose monetary policy. This resulted in that the monetary policy was excessively loose. It could create a zero-interest liquidity trap in financial markets that leaves the central bank helpless to combat future deflation arising out of actual currency appreciation as in the earlier experience of Japan. This suppressed Japanese monetary authorities' capacity to implement effective monetary policy. While policymakers seemed to be aware that the loose monetary policy might be excessive and tried to tighten it, it inevitably resulted in the prolonged economic recession. The principle says an economy cannot simultaneously maintain a fixed exchange rate, free capital movement, and an independent monetary policy. Unfortunately, China has not taken advantage of thislesson and in recent years has allowed a similar situation to arise. Inflationary pressure, especially in real estate, has been increasing in recent years in China. Yi Gang warned that a large economy like China cannot give up the independence of monetary policy. So it is an important principle to stick to the independence of monetary policy for China to deal with the RMB appreciation.3. ConclusionRMB appreciation will have a profound impact not only on China's economy but also on the regional economy and the world economy. Facing the increasing pressure of RMB appreciation from internal and external, China should maintain the RMB exchange rate basically stable, at the same time, effective measures should be taken to response to the BMB appreciation from the current and long-term perspective. Providing China mishandles the RMB appreciation, it will suffer a slowdown in economic growth including imports and eventually deflation, with no predictable effect on its trade surplus–as with Japan from the 1970s to the mid-1990s. China should embrace the new opportunities that appreciation has opened-up and allow more room for the national economy to grow in the process of globalization.Reference:Alan, M. Taylor y Mark P. Taylor (2004) The Purchasing Power Parity Debate. NBER Working Paper No. 10607Krueger, A. (2005) China and the Global Economic Recovery. A Keynote Address at the American Enterprise Institute Seminar, Washington, D. C, 2005.01.10Kwan, C. H. ( 2008) China’s Transition to a Freely Floating Exchange Rate System – Lessons from Japan’s Experience.Ogawa, E. & Sakane, M. (2006) Chinese Y uan after Chinese exchange rate system reform. China &World Economy / 39 – 57, V ol. 14, No. 6, 2006Paul, S. L. YIP, (2007) China’s exchande rate system reform. The Singapore Economic Review,V ol. 52, No. 3 363–402Chen, F. X. (2006) The impact of RMB appreciation, People's Daily Online, /200611/22/eng20061122_324127.html。
《人民币升值对中国出口型企业的影响及对策》中英文
The Impact and Countermeasures of RMB Appreciation on Export-Based Enterprises in ChinaMin YuanSchool of Economics, Tianjin Polytechnic UniversityTianjin 300387, ChinaE-mail:*************************Zhuang ZhouSchool of Economics, Tianjin Polytechnic UniversityTianjin 300387, ChinaE-mail:*******************.cnAbstractRMB appreciation will pose a challenge to export-based enterprises in China, and bring a sense of crisis to them. Therefore, China's export enterprises should take active measures to deal with the impact caused by the RMB appreciation, so that export-oriented enterprises can better adapt to the changes in the global economy, thus materializing their sustainable and stable development.Keywords: RMB appreciation, Export-based industries, Pros and cons, CountermeasuresThe appreciation of the RMB has become much-discussed focus in the international economy and society. China has begun to implement the managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, with reference to a basket of currencies. RMB exchange rate is no longer pegged only to the U.S. dollar, and instead China has formulated a more flexible RMB exchange rate mechanism. RMB appreciation will pose a challenge to export-based enterprises in China, and bring a sense of crisis to them. Therefore, China's export enterprises should take active measures to deal with the impact caused by the rising Yuan, so that export-oriented enterprises can better adapt to the changes in the global economy, thus materializing their sustainable and stable development.In June, 2008, the exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar exceeded the 7:1 boundary. The trend of a Yuan’s rise is foreseeable, and in the irreversible environment, we must take appropriate steps to prevent large fluctuations in RMB to mitigate its negative impact on the import and export trade, while at the same time making full use of the small rise in yuan to promote trade development. Yuan’s rise is not only conducive to a decrease in import costs and domestic inflation, stimulation to consumption, acceleration of structural adjustment, promotion of foreign investment and the reduction in trade friction, but in the short term will also have a negative impact on exports, influencing foreign investment and employment.1. Major industries damaged by and benefiting from Yuan’s riseThe impact of a Yuan’s rise on various kinds of sectors varies according to the differentcharacteristics of industries. RMB appreciation brings advantages to the industries that need to import raw materials, but is not favorable to ones that are export-oriented. It also brings opportunities to the upgrade and optimization of these industries, though certain industries will be adversely affected by it.The main industries benefiting from Yuan’s rise are as follows: (1) real estate and infrastructure ones, which belong to the non-real estate industry, with its domestic real estate value comprehensively enhanced by a rise in Yuan; (2) ones such infrastructure industries as airports, ports, railways, and highways characterized by limited resources, monopoly, the long construction period, and small supply elasticity; (3) the financial sector, especially banking and securities, which is among capital-intensive industries dealing with currencies and capital. Because of good liquidity, it is categorized into the industry with a high value of RMB assets, benefiting from attracting a large amount of international capital; (4) ones such as aviation, electricity, oil refining, paper-making, engineering machinery, and so on, which will see a reduction in costs owning to its main dependence on procurement of foreign raw materials or equipments, or because of the benefits resulted from large amounts of external debt service and the exchange gains and losses, in particular the aviation industry with the dominance of the domestic market; (5) high-tech ones relying upon importing technology, which don’t have any advantage in intellectual property rights related to key sciences and technologies, will also maintain the momentum of a large amount of imports in a certain period of time, and are able to keep up their advantage in costs under the premise of a rise in Yuan.Major industries damaged by Yuan’s rise are as follows: (1) as for export-oriented ones, such as the textile industry (especially garment industry with the high degree of dependence on exports more damage, followed by the cotton spinning industry and wool industry), household appliances, building materials, whose product competitiveness will be weakened to a large extent; (2) foreign trade enterprises have a disadvantageous position in the industry chain, and their import business will be unable to gain excess profits from the appreciation of the RMB, with the export business suffering a lot; (3) mining, petrochemical, and non-ferrous metal industries, which will be given a big blow by their export business; (4) agriculture with a larger proportion of exports.2. The impact of RMB appreciation on China's export enterprises2.1 Adverse effects on China's export enterprises2.1.1 The export of manufactured goods is greatly affected by fluctuations in exchange rate on a wide basisRMB appreciation will induce a increase in currency exchange cost in Chinese export firms, resulting in the loss of price advantage. The cost refers to the RMB cost paid domestically on the net revenue from one dollar’worth of exports. China's manufacturing exports are more concentrated on low-end products, with competitive advantage weak. These products compete with other ones mainly by means of prizing, and as a result the Yuan’s rise will have a retarding effect on their exports. For employees in the manufacturing sector, those that are seriously affected may face the reduced income, or even the risk of unemployment. The adverse impact of enterprises in labor-intensive industries will be greater than ones in capital-intensive industries.2.1.2 Causing a slow growth in the export of most of products related to raw materialsThe majority of products related to raw materials don’t have any competitive edge in the export price, with a stronger reliance on the exchange rate, such as paper, cotton yarn, black metal (steel, manganese, etc.), aluminum, wood and other decorations. RMB appreciation will induce a slow growth in exports of these primary products and raw material products, having a negative impact on economic growth in the short run. It will also reduce the exports of crude oil, refined oil, timber, copper, gold and other resource-based commodities, and bring about the loss of the enterprises, worse still such cascade effects as increased unemployment and banking bad debts. Because our resources are not rich, these resource-based products belong to highly energy-consuming and polluting industries. Over-exports of resource-based products make it easy to intensify the tense contradiction between domestic coal, electricity and oil transportation in the short term. In the long term, it will increase the pressure of the domestic environment and resources, which is not conducive to the sustainable development of the domestic economy.2.1.3 The psychological effect of trade impact on peopleIn the international market, the increase in production costs will be passed on to the price, and consequently the exchange rate appreciation will not affect the profits of these enterprises too much. China's export products cause the price fluctuations in foreign countries due to our currency appreciation, and the appreciation of the RMB will increase the domestic production costs of these enterprises, and in the international market these enterprises have a substantial cost advantage, with the minimal impact on the interests of traders. However, those with ulterior motives will instigate a negative psychological effect on China in the international community. People will believe the prices of products from China are higher, and foreign businessmen also believe that they will not made a lot of money from products imported from China, which causes the really adverse impact on China's exports.2.2 Beneficial effects on China's export enterprises2.2.1 Enhancing the independent innovation capacity of enterprisesAt present, China is at a stage of technology overtaking, and enterprises have a strong capacity of technology introduction, digestion and absorption. And the Yuan’s rise can reduce the cost of independent development, indirectly promote the technological upgrading of firms and enhance their core competitiveness, thus speeding up the pace of optimizing and upgrading the industrial structure and boosting the structure adjustment of exports.2.2.2 Optimizing the structure of introduced foreign capitalRMB appreciation makes improve the treatment of workers, which is beneficial to attracting high-tech talents. Under the prerequisite of the country's independent innovation and technological progress, foreign capital will invest in those industries with a high technological content, thereby promoting industrial structure upgrading and optimizing the structure of exports.2.2.3 Promoting China's enterprise investment overseasFor enterprises to invest directly in foreign nations, they must use the currency of investment destination country. The RMB appreciation significantly reduces their overseas investment costs, and meanwhile enhances the firm's international purchasing power and capacity of foreigninvestment, paving the way for a part of powerful enterprises to implement "going out" strategy.2.2.4 Facilitating the development in service and trade industriesRMB appreciation can most effectively crowd out those firms in the manufacturing sector with low technology content and added value, poor management and low efficiency, to the benefit of changing the situation of excessive resources gathering to export industries (mainly the secondary industry), and thus make industrial structure service-industry-oriented, promoting the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure and facilitating the rapid development of service industries including trade services. This way, the coordinated development can be ultimately realized between service and commodity trade, enhancing the country's overall competitiveness.2.2.5 Boosting China's imports of raw materials and technologyThe prices of foreign consumer goods and capital goods are lower than ever before, and manufacturers dependent on importing raw materials witness a decline in costs, such as steel, electrolytic aluminum, gasoline, oil and other consumption goods more and more dependent on imports. China's industrialization need to purchase a large number of advanced foreign technology; the appreciation of the RMB can reduce the purchase cost of foreign technology. As imports increase, the purchasing power of foreign raw materials increase, with exports declining, so it is helpful to ease the current trade surplus, enhance the balance of China's international balance of payments and weaken the formation of the RMB foreign exchange accounting, and improve the independence and initiative of monetary policy and the balance of money supply.2.2.6 Reducing pressure from external debt servicingThe appreciation of the RMB is advantageous to repaying foreign debts, and there is a corresponding reduction in the amount of outstanding external debt servicing.2.2.7 Strengthening the international purchasing power of common people in our countryAs the exchange rate rises, the prices of foreign consumer goods purchased by ordinary people will fall, promoting the import of consumer goods. At the same time the drop in the cost of travel abroad can promote the growth of national consumption.3. Counter-measures by China's export firms after RMB appreciationIn theory, the rising RMB exchange rate is bound to have a negative effect on China's export enterprises, but according to the actual trade volume, it’s still uncertain whether the rise in the RMB exchange rate lead to such results, which can be verified by the fact that China's foreign trade volume continues to maintain a favorable balance. However, export enterprises should response in a positive manner under the premise of the growing appreciation of the RMB.3.1 Avoiding exchange rate risk is an expedient measure for export enterprises to grapple with the appreciation of the RMB in the short runFaced with the steadily rising RMB exchange rate, export enterprises must take precautions, apart from enhancing its anti-risk capacity. In addition, financial instruments developed by banks and other financial institutions must also be relied on to be hedged against risks and prepare more “life buoy”, so as to achieve the purposes of avoiding risks and improving operational efficiency.3.1.1 Focus on the RMB exchange rate changes, and increase exchange rate risk awareness Concern about the RMB exchange rate changes is one of long-term management tasks in export businesses, with great importance attached to this. Special force must be organized to learn exchange rate management knowledge and closely track the movement of the RMB exchange rate changes, in particular the movements in the recent exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar, euro, Japanese Yen, and other major currencies. Firms have to conduct an in-depth study of the impact of RMB appreciation on export products, and strive to improve the relevance and effectiveness of work. Export enterprises should enhance the risk awareness of exchange rate changes, take control of the effective means of exchange rate risk, and continuously boost their capacity to deal with exchange rate risk. For instance, when signing export contracts, firms can add some relevant provisions of avoiding exchange rate risk to prevent unexpected situations.3.1.2 Flexibly use various financial tools to lock and avoid exchange rate risksFlexible and effective financial instruments should be adopted, such as the use of multi-currency clearing method to transfer exchange rate risk, appropriate use of foreign exchange forward trading, hedging and other means to lock the exchange rate risk. Through the appropriate U.S. dollar loans, interest payments and the losses can be reduced. In addition, under the conditional premise, this method can be used to keep the exchange rate risk within the business source through long-term foreign exchange transactions, options transactions and foreign exchange futures trading.3.1.3 Accelerate the realization of exports, and reduce the occupation of receivable foreign exchange accountsExport enterprises accelerate the documentation transfer, strive to withdraw export documentations as soon as possible, actively take notes trade, factoring and other ways to make timely settlement in hand instruments realizable, and use this method to implement the money worth more than half of the export volume into cash. Enterprises should carry out the more rapid recovery of the export business, appropriate control of the export business with a long recovery period, and at the same time increase the collection of receivable foreign exchange accounts, thus shortening the settlement period and reducing in-transit funds occupation as soon as possible.3.1.4 Increase foreign exchange liabilities, and strike a balance between foreign exchange income and expenditureThrough the application of remittances, enterprises can replace Yuan loans for foreign exchange loans, delaying payment of imports and appropriately increasing foreign exchange liabilities. After the appreciation of the RMB, the amount of outstanding loans due to sell or buy foreign exchange return and external payment can be used to offset the risk of devaluation of foreign exchange assets, or directly profit from it.3.2 Main strategies for export enterprises to deal with the long-term appreciation of the RMBIn the evasion of exchange rate risk, the pace of restructuring needs to be accelerated, and the ability of independent innovation and competitiveness enhanced. By strengthening internal management, carrying out technological transformation to develop the potential, and taking theroad of branding, this is the long-term and fundamental solution to enterprise development.3.2.1 Enterprises carry out the "going out" strategyWe ought to solve problems related to ideas, accelerate the pace of opening to the outside world, and encourage strong, qualified enterprises to conduct foreign investment and overseas acquisition of the ore, nonferrous metals and other important resources. In particular, electrolytic aluminum enterprises should give full play to the available import-export rights, invest in foreign nations and establish a supply base of stable alumina, bauxite and other resources. In the case of the appreciation of the RMB, the prices of imported raw materials can increase, further reducing production costs. We should seriously study the feasibility of setting up factories in developing countries and regions, develop new products, and increase the technological content of products. The value-added products should be increased, enterprise costs management strengthened, and production and operation costs lowered. The government should choose low value-added processing enterprises with sales network support them to set up production plants and put departments and services at home in these countries with lower labor costs, which can not only use goodwill and marketing networks built up for many year, but also keep part of work positions, thus achieving the curve exports and reducing the trade surplus with major trading countries and the pressure on RMB appreciation.3.2.2 Optimize the structure of export commodities, and vigorously develop the international marketExport enterprises, especially production-oriented enterprises, ought to actively use new technology, develop new products and continuously improve the value-added products, reducing the exports with lowest profits and expanding own-brand product exports of good quality and efficiency. In addition, export enterprises should conscientiously strengthen the costs and cost management of procurement, production, marketing, financial planning and other aspects, fully develop the internal potential, and reduce costs and expenses, expanding product margins and increasing the competitiveness of export products. Only this way is the risk of exchange rate fluctuations avoided. During the RMB revaluation period, adjusting industrial structure of exports is a top priority. The international market is not infinite, and the traditional theory of comparative advantage in the international trade is greatly challenged. Some countries which have industries with comparative advantages face the issue of out-of-step growth in demand for international trade in the international market. This means that the protection of these industries may not be conducive to the long-term development of enterprises.3.2.3 Speed up the upgrading of products, and improve the quality of export productsChina is a manufacture-based country. If a product is sold well, there will be many homogenized products available on the market overnight, especially export enterprises. Many of China's enterprises are in the phrase of pursuit of survival, and lack long-term brand planning. The majority of export products win at low prices. Export enterprises based on production should increase technical transformation investment, speed up product upgrading, and strive to improve product quality and added value, improving the comprehensive competitiveness of export products and taking the road of difference and branding. The appreciation of the RMB may force some companies to upgrade products, enhancing export competitiveness in terms of quality and brand.At the moment, many light industrial products, particularly export products with high added value and high-tech content, remain relatively short. Therefore, enterprises should gradually conduct product restructuring and integration of resources, and vigorously develop the international market and export diversification strategy, achieving the output from product to capital and brand, product structure adjustment, and improvement in product quality and grades. Efforts to adjust the structure of export commodities need to intensified, and the opportunity of the appreciation of the RMB caught to actively import advanced equipment and technology, key components, promoting the restructuring in export industries and technological upgrading and transforming the mode of foreign trade growth.References:Phelps, E.S. (1994). Structural Slumps: The Model Equilibrium Theory of Unemployment, Interest, and Assets. Cambridge, Mass: Harvard University Press.Rotemberg, J.J and M. Woodford. (1991). Mark-Ups and the Business Cycle. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, (6)63-129.Sachs, J.D and H. J. Shatz. (1994).Trade and Jobs in U.S. Manufacturing. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, (1):1-80.摘要人民币升值会对中国的出口型企业的带来挑战，并带来给他们危机感。