美联储主席耶伦讲话
美联储耶伦讲话
美联储耶伦讲话篇一：耶伦,如何成为让全世界都在等她讲话的人？出生并且成长在纽约布鲁克林的耶伦是犹太人后裔，父亲是家庭医生，母亲是小学教师。
为了照顾耶伦兄妹，耶伦的母亲辞职当了家庭主妇。
而手握家中财政大权的母亲可以说是耶伦的经济学启蒙老师，她从母亲的身上培养出对股票和财经的兴趣。
看来股票是真的得从娃娃抓起！耶伦在母亲的熏陶下，对经济学痴迷到了一定的程度。
有多痴迷？1989年旧金山市发生7.1级大地震的时候耶伦正在伯克利大学任教授，听到校内警报大作的时候耶伦正好在办公室做研究，直到她的同事催促她赶紧逃难，耶伦却一动不动。
同事回忆说：“我感觉到楼马上就要塌了，我想自己马上就要死了，但她却一动不动，镇定得让人难以理解。
”从另一个角度来说，耶伦也就是旷世的淡定姐！耶伦是美联储体系内不折不扣的“老将”。
她曾于1977年进入美联储理事会，还曾先后担任克林顿政府经济顾问委员会主席、旧金山联储主席。
金融危机发生后，她于20XX年被奥巴马总统提名为美联储副主席。
耶伦宣誓就任美国联邦储备委员会副主席，任期4年。
同时，珍妮特·耶伦开始其14年的美国联邦储备委员会委员任期，至2024年1月31日完结。
20XX年10月9日，美国总统奥巴马提名美联储现任副主席珍妮特·耶伦接替伯南克出任下一任美联储主席。
20XX年1月6日，参议院以56票对26票的表决结果通过了对耶伦的提名。
20XX年2月3日，耶伦正式宣誓就职。
耶伦一家三口都是经济学家。
她和丈夫阿克洛夫1977年在联储的一次午餐会上认识，两人对经济议题的共同兴趣以及看法让他们惺惺相惜，两人交往不到一年便决定闪电结婚。
所以说，美联储是耶伦的“红娘”。
阿克洛夫他早年因为论文《柠檬市场》而闻名，并于20XX年获得诺贝尔经济学奖。
篇二：美联储主席耶伦新闻发布会翻译稿(高级笔译) TranscriptofchairYellen’sPressconferenceopeningRemarksJune15,20XXcHaiRYELLEn:Goodafternoon.Today,theFederalopenmarketcommittee(F omc)maintainedthetargetrangeforthefederalfundsrateat1/4to1/2percent.Th isaccommodativepolicyshouldsupportfurther progresstowardourstatutoryobjectivesofmaximumemploymentandpricesta bility.Basedontheeconomicoutlook,thecommitteecontinuestoanticipatethat gradualincreasesinthefederalfundsrateovertimearelikelytobeconsistentwit hachievingandmaintainingourobjectives.However,recenteconomicindicat orshavebeenmixed,suggestingthatourcautiousapproachtoadjustingmonetar ypolicyremainsappropriate.asalways,ourpolicyisnotonapresetcourseandiftheeconomicoutlookshifts,theappropriatepathofpolicywillshiftcorrespondi ngly.iwillcomebacktoourpolicydecision,butfirstiwillreviewrecenteconomi cdevelopmentsandtheoutlook.下午好，今天开放市场委员会保持联邦基准利率在0.25%至0.5%区间。
美国财长耶伦就美中关系发表讲话
美国财长耶伦就美中关系发表讲话2021年3月18日，美国财长耶伦在特朗普政府时期开始的贸易战后首次公开发表了关于美中关系的讲话。
这一讲话引起了全球媒体和人们的广泛关注。
在这篇文章中，我将从三个方面探讨耶伦的讲话：一是耶伦对中美贸易战的回顾，二是她对中美经济关系的评价，三是她对中美未来合作的展望。
一、中美贸易战的回顾在讲话中，耶伦回顾了2018年开始的中美贸易战对两国和全球经济的影响。
她指出，贸易战造成了大量的经济损失，打击了全球贸易和投资，导致了很多公司和家庭承受了沉重的财务压力。
特别是在美国，农民和中小型企业特别受到了影响。
耶伦指出，这场贸易战给全球经济带来了巨大的不确定性，这对扩大贸易和投资的自由和开放的全球体系造成了极大的损害。
耶伦进一步指出，虽然特朗普政府在贸易问题上采取了强硬的立场，但这并没有带来预期的结果。
贸易战不仅没有消除美国的贸易逆差，反而造成了更多的失业和经济压力。
朝着更加合作和开放的方向前进，才是解决贸易问题的正确路径。
二、中美经济关系的评价在讲话中，耶伦对中美之间的经济关系发表了自己的看法。
她指出，美中经济关系是全球最重要的双边经济关系之一。
两国之间的贸易和投资关系相互支持，为全球经济增长做出了巨大贡献。
但由于两国之间存在的问题，如市场准入限制、知识产权保护等，这种关系并不完美。
耶伦表示，中美两国应该对经济关系进行全面评估，并着手解决与之相关的问题。
她指出，通过沟通和合作，两国之间能够找到更多的共同点，实现互利共赢的局面。
特别是在疫情爆发后，中美之间的合作更加紧密，这一局面应该得到更好的维护和推动。
三、中美未来合作的展望在讲话的最后，耶伦展望了中美未来合作的前景。
她指出，美中两国在经济、科技、环保、能源等方面存在着很多合作机会。
特别是在应对全球性问题时，中美之间的合作是必须的。
她呼吁两国之间加强沟通、减少误解，找到合作的平台和加强连接，增进两国之间的相互了解，建立长期合作的机制。
美联储：耶伦讲话
Transcript of Chair Yellen’s FOMC Press Conference Opening Statement March 18, 2015 CHAIR YELLEN. Good afternoon. As you know, the Federal Open Market Committee this afternoon reaffirmed the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate. We also updated our forward guidance, indicating that an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate remains unlikely at our next meeting in April. With continued improvement in economic conditions, however, we do not want to rule out the possibility that an increase in the target range could be warranted at subsequent meetings. Let me emphasize, however, that the timing of the initial increase in the target range will depend on the Committee’s assessment of incoming information. Today’s mo dification of our guidance should not be interpreted to mean that we have decided on the timing of that increase. In other words, just because we removed the word “patient” from the statement doesn’t mean we are going to be impatient. Moreover, even after the initial increase in the target funds rate, our policy is likely to remain highly accommodative to support continued progress toward our objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. I will come back to today’s policy decisions in a few mome nts, but first I would like to review economic developments and the outlook, which formed the basis for our policy decisions.We have seen continued progress toward our objective of maximum employment. The pace of employment growth has remained strong, with job gains averaging nearly 290,000 per month over the past three months. The unemployment rate was 5.5 percent in February; that’s three-tenths lower than the latest reading available at the time of our December meeting. Broader measures of job market conditions—such as those counting individuals who want and are available to work but have not actively searched recently and people who are working part time but would rather work full time—have shown similar improvement. As we noted in our statement, slack in the labor market continues to diminish. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate—the percentage of working-age Americans either working or seeking work—is lower than most estimates of its trend and wage growth remains sluggish, suggesting that some cyclical weakness persists. So considerable progress clearly has been achieved, but room for further improvement in the labor market continues.(以上海北负责）We continue to expect sufficient underlying strength in economic growth to support ongoing improvement in the labor market. After averaging about 2-1/2 percent over 2014, growth of real gross domestic product appears to have slowed in the first quarter of this year, in part reflecting a moderation in household spending. In addition, the recovery in the housing sector remains subdued and export growth looks to have weakened. Looking ahead, however, the Committee continues to expect a moderate pace of GDP growth, with robust job gains and lower energy prices supporting household spending.Inflation has declined further below our longer-run objective, largely reflecting the lower energy prices I just mentioned. Declining import prices have also restrained inflation and, in light of the recent appreciation of the dollar, will likely continue to do so in the months ahead. My colleagues and I continue to expect that as the effects of these transitory factors dissipate and as the labor market improves further, inflation will move gradually back toward our 2 percent objective over the medium term. In making this forecast, we are attentive to the low levels of market-based measures of inflation compensation. In contrast, survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable. The Committee will continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.This assessment of the outlook is reflected in the individual economic projections submitted for this meeting by the FOMC participants. As always, each participant’s projections are conditioned on his or her own view of appropriate monetary policy. The unemployment rate projections over the next few years and in the longer run are generally a bit lower than the December projections. At the end of this year, the central tendency for the unemployment rate stands at 5.0 to 5.2 percent, in line with participants’ estimates of the longer-run normal unemployment rate. Committee participants generally see the unemployment rate declining a little further over the course of 2016 and 2017. For economic growth, participants generally reduced their projections since December, with many citing a weaker outlook for net exports. Nonetheless, the central tendency of the growth projections for this year and next, at 2.3 to 2.7 percent, remains somewhat above estimates of the longer-run normal growth rate. Finally, FOMC participants project inflation to be quite low this year, largely reflecting lower energy and import prices. The central tendency of the inflation projections for this year is now below 1 percent, down noticeably since December. As the transitory factors holding down inflation abate, the central tendency rebounds to 1.7 to 1.9 percent next year and rises to 1.9 to 2.0 percent in 2017.（以上海东负责）Returning to monetary policy, as I noted at the outset, the Committee reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. But with economic conditions improving, and with further improvement expected in the months ahead, we have again modified our forward guidance. In December and January, the Committee judged that it could be patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy. That meant that we considered it unlikely that economic conditions would warrant an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate for at least the next couple of FOMC meetings. While it is still the case that we consider it unlikely that economic conditions will warrant an increase in the target range at the April meeting, such an increase could be warranted at any later meeting, depending on how the economy evolves.回到货币政策，就像我说的一样，委员会重申自己的观点，认为目前0至0.25%的联邦基准利率仍然是合适的。
美联储耶伦讲话稿
For release on delivery10:00 a.m. EDTJuly 15, 2014Statement byJanet L. YellenChairBoard of Governors of the Federal Reserve Systembefore theCommittee on Banking, Housing, and Urban AffairsU.S. SenateJuly 15, 2014Chairman Johnson, Ranking Member Crapo, and members of the Committee, I am pleased to present the Federal Reserve’s semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress. In my remarks today, I will discuss the current economic situation and outlook before turning to monetary policy. I will conclude with a few words about financial stability.Current Economic Situation and OutlookThe economy is continuing to make progress toward the Federal Reserve’s objectives of maximum employment and price stability.In the labor market, gains in total nonfarm payroll employment averaged about 230,000 per month over the first half of this year, a somewhat stronger pace than in 2013 and enough to bring the total increase in jobs during the economic recovery thus far to more than 9 million. The unemployment rate has fallen nearly 1-1/2 percentage points over the past year and stood at 6.1 percent in June, down about 4 percentage points from its peak. Broader measures of labor utilization have also registered notable improvements over the past year.Real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have declined sharply in the first quarter. The decline appears to have resulted mostly from transitory factors, and a number of recent indicators of production and spending suggest that growth rebounded in the second quarter, but this bears close watching. The housing sector, however, has shown little recent progress. While this sector has recovered notably from its earlier trough, housing activity leveled off in the wake of last year’s increase in mortgage rates, and readings this year have, overall, continued to be disappointing.Although the economy continues to improve, the recovery is not yet complete. Even with the recent declines, the unemployment rate remains above Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants’ estimates of its longer-run normal level. Labor force participation appears weaker than one would expect based on the aging of the population and the level ofunemployment. These and other indications that significant slack remains in labor markets are corroborated by the continued slow pace of growth in most measures of hourly compensation.Inflation has moved up in recent months but remains below the FOMC’s 2 percent objective for inflation over the longer run. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index increased 1.8 percent over the 12 months through May. Pressures on food and energy prices account for some of the increase in PCE price inflation. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 1.5 percent. Most Committee participants project that both total and core inflation will be between 1-1/2 and 1-3/4 percent for this year as a whole.Although the decline in GDP in the first quarter led to some downgrading of our growth projections for this year, I and other FOMC participants continue to anticipate that economic activity will expand at a moderate pace over the next several years, supported by accommodative monetary policy, a waning drag from fiscal policy, the lagged effects of higher home prices and equity values, and strengthening foreign growth. The Committee sees the projected pace of economic growth as sufficient to support ongoing improvement in the labor market with further job gains, and the unemployment rate is anticipated to continue to decline toward its longer-run sustainable level. Consistent with the anticipated further recovery in the labor market, and given that longer-term inflation expectations appear to be well anchored, we expect inflation to move back toward our 2 percent objective over coming years.As always, considerable uncertainty surrounds our projections for economic growth, unemployment, and inflation. FOMC participants currently judge these risks to be nearly balanced but to warrant monitoring in the months ahead.Monetary PolicyI will now turn to monetary policy. The FOMC is committed to policies that promote maximum employment and price stability, consistent with our dual mandate from the Congress.Given the economic situation that I just described, we judge that a high degree of monetary policy accommodation remains appropriate. Consistent with that assessment, we have maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and have continued to rely on large-scale asset purchases and forward guidance about the future path of the federal funds rate to provide the appropriate level of support for the economy.In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment that has occurred since the inception of the Federal Reserve’s asset purchase program in September 2012 and the FOMC’s assessment that labor market conditions would continue to improve, the Committee has made measured reductions in the monthly pace of our asset purchases at each of our regular meetings this year. If incoming data continue to support our expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward 2 percent, the Committee likely will make further measured reductions in the pace of asset purchases at upcoming meetings, with purchases concluding after the October meeting. Even after the Committee ends these purchases, the Federal Reserve’s sizable holdings of longer-term securities will help maintain accommodative financial conditions, thus supporting further progress in returning employment and inflation to mandate-consistent levels.The Committee is also fostering accommodative financial conditions through forward guidance that provides greater clarity about our policy outlook and expectations for the future path of the federal funds rate. Since March, our postmeeting statements have included a description of the framework that is guiding our monetary policy decisions. Specifically, our decisions are and will be based on an assessment of the progress--both realized and expected--toward our objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. Our evaluation will not hinge on one or two factors, but rather will take into account a wide range of information,including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation and long-term inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments.Based on its assessment of these factors, in June the Committee reiterated its expectation that the current target range for the federal funds rate likely will be appropriate for a considerable period after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal and provided that inflation expectations remain well anchored. In addition, we currently anticipate that even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the federal funds rate below levels that the Committee views as normal in the longer run.Of course, the outlook for the economy and financial markets is never certain, and now is no exception. Therefore, the Committee’s decisions about the path of the federal funds rate remain dependent on our assessment of incoming information and the implications for the economic outlook. If the labor market continues to improve more quickly than anticipated by the Committee, resulting in faster convergence toward our dual objectives, then increases in the federal funds rate target likely would occur sooner and be more rapid than currently envisioned. Conversely, if economic performance is disappointing, then the future path of interest rates likely would be more accommodative than currently anticipated.The Committee remains confident that it has the tools it needs to raise short-term interest rates when the time is right and to achieve the desired level of short-term interest rates thereafter, even with the Federal Reserve’s elevated balance sheet. At our meetings this spring, we have been constructively working through the many issues associated with the eventual normalization of the stance and conduct of monetary policy. These ongoing discussions are a matter of prudent planning and do not imply any imminent change in the stance of monetary policy. TheCommittee will continue its discussions in upcoming meetings, and we expect to provide additional information later this year.Financial StabilityThe Committee recognizes that low interest rates may provide incentives for some investors to “reach for yield,” and those actions could increase vulnerabilities in the financial system to adverse events. While prices of real estate, equities, and corporate bonds have risen appreciably and valuation metrics have increased, they remain generally in line with historical norms. In some sectors, such as lower-rated corporate debt, valuations appear stretched and issuance has been brisk. Accordingly, we are closely monitoring developments in the leveraged loan market and are working to enhance the effectiveness of our supervisory guidance. More broadly, the financial sector has continued to become more resilient, as banks have continued to boost their capital and liquidity positions, and growth in wholesale short-term funding in financial markets has been modest.SummaryIn sum, since the February Monetary Policy Report, further important progress has been made in restoring the economy to health and in strengthening the financial system. Yet too many Americans remain unemployed, inflation remains below our longer-run objective, and not all of the necessary financial reform initiatives have been completed. The Federal Reserve remains committed to employing all of its resources and tools to achieve its macroeconomic objectives and to foster a stronger and more resilient financial system.Thank you. I would be pleased to take your questions.。
周标理财：美联储主席耶轮凌晨演讲,提供何时加息线索
操作策略
1、回踩3820附近多单介入,止损3790。
2、反弹3880附近出现反转形态,空单介入。
3、在3700-3750分批介入多头头寸,止损入市需谨慎,祝您投资愉快）
不过随后一些美联储官员纷纷淡化“六个月”的言论。上周公布的美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议记录也表明，美联储官员并不急于在购债计划于今年稍晚结束后马上收紧政策。
【技术面解析】
【现货黄金】
从日线图上看，昨天的金价暴跌并没有有效击穿上升趋势线，昨日本人金评也写到谨防金银暴跌，做好风险防范。今日主要关注下方上升趋势线的支撑位1294附近，若是这一线能在日内得到有效破位的话，周标理财会看好刷新前期低点1277，目前上方的阻力主要位于MA10和MA60的阻力，附图指标MACD目前处于粘合阶段，RSI已经开始拐头，STO目前处于放量期。
周标理财：美联储主席耶轮凌晨演讲，提供何时加息线索
【金融市场解析】
周三汇市将迎来名符其实的超级日，在乌克兰紧张局势升温的背景之下，财经事件也迎来井喷。除了国内的GDP等众多宏观经济数据之外，国际市场上更是好戏连台。耶伦、褐皮书成为美联储大戏的主角”，欧元区通胀数据恐将成为德拉基是否推出QE的决定性因素，而加拿大央行利率决议、欧洲央行管委会会议等也将引发关注，英镑方面则将关注就业数据。
2.下方1294多，止损放1290.7，利润看1302-1306
3.若有破位行情，周标理财临盘指导
天通银
白银昨日受黄金抛售影响,一度触及3800附近,而后半夜并没有收线3900上方,意味着短周期还是空头格局占优势,而乌克兰的事件又提供一定的支撑因素,所以目前在中间点位来回不定,目前技术面上看,周标理财周标理财认为认为上方的阻力3860-80一线,原先的支撑目前变成短周期的阻力点,而下方昨日低点3800-3820一线成为第一支撑点,日内周三,预计维持在3820-3880之间的60个点波动,还是时刻关注乌克兰的矛盾解决情况,如果战争爆发,那避险因素的影响力会大一些,会推动价格上涨,而乌克兰缓和了,那么白银会奔着3750方向去突破。
耶伦的经济政策观点
耶伦的经济政策观点——现代供给侧经济学用耶伦的话说，现代供给侧经济学旨在“通过增加劳动力供应、提高生产率、减少不平等和环境破坏来促进经济增长”。
这是美国财政部长珍妮特·耶伦（Janet L. Yellen）在斯坦福经济政策研究所2022年经济峰会上的讲话。
现代供给侧经济学旨在通过提高生产力的投资和促进劳动力供应的政策来扩大我们国家的经济潜力。
就总生产函数而言，这种方法通过更深层次的有形资本（包括公共资本和私人资本）提高劳动生产率;更高的人力资本;以及科学技术的进步。
此外，基于税收的激励措施和亲家庭的劳动政策旨在提高劳动力参与率。
相比之下，传统的供给侧经济学主要侧重于通过降低资本使用成本的政策来增加私人资本存量，主要是通过减税投资。
除了关注更广泛的生产要素外，现代供给侧经济学还关注跨部门、跨人员和跨地方的投资分配。
在传统方法下，降低资本使用成本的减税通常首先使资本所有者受益;如果这些削减导致更广泛的投资，那么这些好处就会更广泛地传播——这是一个有争议的假设。
尽管去年面临金融环境收紧和全球经济不确定性加剧，但美国金融体系仍然具有弹性。
美国银行体系整体健全，拥有强大的资本和流动性状况。
——更高的利率对国家有利这位前美联储主席表示，总统的计划每年将总额约为4000亿美元，她认为这一支出水平不足以造成通胀超支。
“如果我们最终的利率环境略高，这实际上对社会观点和美联储的观点来说都是一个加分项，”耶伦告诉彭博社。
“十年来，我们一直在与过低的通货膨胀和过低的利率作斗争，”她说。
她补充说，如果这些一揽子计划有助于“缓解问题，那么这不是一件坏事——这是一件好事。
——有弹性的消费者阻止了经济衰退出人意料的有弹性的美国消费者阻止了经济衰退——现在美联储可以在更长时间内保持较高的利率。
美国财政部长珍妮特·耶伦（Janet Yellen）表示，尽管有经济衰退预测，但美国经济“已被证明比预期更具弹性”，并表示希望该国能够在保持劳动力市场强劲的同时降低通胀。
美联储主席耶伦演讲
美联储主席耶伦演讲：让我们终生受益的品质Sexton校长，非常感谢您让我代表荣誉博士的获得者们，表达我们对纽约大学的感激和对2014届的同学们及你们的家人们的祝贺。
今天是特别的一天。
我们在今天，庆祝你们的成就、展望你们的未来。
我希望纽约大学不仅仅为你们提供了基础知识，还给你们带来了对知识的热爱之心和持久的好奇心。
人生是一个不断探索的旅程，如果将你们求知的火焰点燃，那它的熊熊烈火将点亮你们的人生道路。
在纽约大学的学习中，正是这样的好奇心，带领着埃里克·坎德尔达到了他人生的最高成就——他发现了人类记忆的化学机制的和细胞基础。
在他毕业后的几年，他首先用猫来作为研究对象。
但他有个想法：为什么不去关注那些有着更简单、更基本的大脑的动物，例如加州海蜗牛呢？他的同事们起初都嘲笑他的想法。
他们自以为知道，研究这种低等的海蜗牛对理解人类记忆是无关紧要的。
更雪上加霜的是，坎德尔的有着丰富解剖经验的重要合作者也离开了他。
但坎德尔坚持住了。
为了加快对海蜗牛的研究，他去了国外学习。
在2000年，他的好奇心使他赢得诺贝尔奖。
你一定已经猜到了，他的海蜗牛的研究为我们揭示了人类记忆的化学机制。
我相信，坎德尔的人生，为我们展示了即使路上有巨大困难的阻拦，持续的好奇心可以帮助我们达到看似不可能的雄心壮志。
第二个让我们终身受益的品质是倾听他人的意愿。
如今，科学技术让我们可以用一个宽广的视角去看世界，但它也可以让我们缩小范围去倾听那些我们觉得最愉悦的声音。
倾听他人的声音，尤其是那些与我们有分歧的声音，能检验我们自己的理念和信仰。
这让我们意识到，谦卑的心态，让真理不会被任何人垄断。
洋基球场教给我们另外一个道理：你不会一直成功。
甚至连露丝、格里克和迪马吉奥这样的棒球巨星站在球场上的大多数时间里都会以失败告终。
在寻找真理的人生道路中，往往会涉及一些失误。
当我们努力去解决威胁到全球经济的金融和经济危机时，我的我美联储的同事们都共同经历了这样或那样的挫折。
美联储主席耶伦：美国经济将继续温和增长
美联储主席耶伦：美国经济将继续温和增长北京时间周四(3月17日)凌晨2:30，美联储主席耶伦在FOMC货币政策会议后召开新闻发布会表示，美联储利率决定反映了美联储官员对美国经济前景的评估，预计劳动力市场将会进一步改善；预计美国经济将继续温和增长；全球经济和金融发展给美国经济带来风险。
★关于利率：耶伦表示，长期利率的下滑将会缓和金融状况收紧的影响，指出维持当前利率区间不变部分反映出美国及全球经济形势的影响。
同时强调，美联储将在必要情况下调整货币政策姿态，鉴于利率依然接近于零，谨慎是适当之举。
联邦基金利率可能在很长时间内低于长期水平，长期中性利率存在相当不确定性，并指出大部分FOMC委员对利率的预期较去年12月有所下调。
联邦基金利率预测不是未来政策计划，每一次会议都是现场会议，未来利率轨道具有不确定性。
★劳动力市场：耶伦表示，预计劳动力市场将会进一步改善。
最近三个月每个月平均增加23万个就业岗位，失业率符合充分就业预判，其他失业率指标继续好转。
去年秋季以来，就业参与率显著改善，越来越多的人积极求职，劳动力参与率已经显著升高。
耶伦同时指出薪资增速尚未表现出持续升高。
★通货膨胀：耶伦表示，核心通胀能否维持坚定增长仍有待观察。
疲软的投资处境体现了石油开采情况，个人消费支出指数上涨说明能源价格下跌效应消退。
通胀率预计在未来2-3年升至2%，不能将通胀预期企稳视为理所当然，美联储声明强调美联储将关注通胀进展。
★经济和GDP预期：耶伦表示，当前对GDP增速的预期较去年12月有所下修。
同时指出全球经济前景与金融状况已进一步紧缩，金融状况最近已经显著好转。
去年四季度以来经济温和扩张，房地产市场温和复苏，经济增速看起来自第四季度以来已经升高。
【耶伦回答记者提问】★关于利率和加息：耶伦表示经济肯定会沿着意料之外的道路发展。
美联储利率预期不是行动保证，加息预测下调也反映出信贷条件收紧，多数与会者预计未来会加息，美联储没有试图策动一场通胀超标。
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美联储主席耶伦讲话
今天XX提供给大家的是美联储主席耶伦讲话，仅供参考，希望对大家有用。
美国利率何去何从，还得观察耶伦于8月26日的讲话。
北京时间7月28日02:00，美联储发布了7月FOMC货币政策声明。
虽然不出所料将基准联邦基金利率维持在%-%之间不变，且措辞没有明显的鸽派或鹰派倾向，但是市场反应有点强烈，美元、黄金和白银等资产出现了较大幅度的波动。
美国联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)表示，由于美国6月份新增万个就业岗位，而5月份仅新增万个(修正值，初值为万个)，因而美国就业市场已转强。
这一评估较六周前“就业增长有所放缓”的评估更为乐观。
另外，美联储官员形容家庭支出“一直增长强劲，经济活动温和扩张”，这一评述较6月份的声明也有小幅改善，当时美联储表示“家庭支出已转强，经济活动也似乎已经升温”。
不过，最令市场注意的还是“经济前景的近期风险有所消退”的措辞，再次暗示官员们倾向于在未来几个月内上调短期利率。
美联储对风险的评估是其政策倾向的一个潜在指标。
当美联储认为风险走强时，通常维持利率不变或降息。
美联储在过去两次会议上没有作出风险评估，这次称风
险有所消退，意味着美联储已经走出了疲软的5月就业报告、第一季度经济增长放缓以及英国脱欧公投连续发生造成的不安;但他们仍认为欧洲会在中长期带来威胁，而中国经济放缓也是令美联储内部感到不安的又一项因素。
因而这番言论似乎表明未来几个月内有可能加息，但并不是确定的。
对此，加拿大帝国商业银行(CIBC)首席经济学家Avery Shenfeld认为，仅一个月的乐观数据还不足以彻底扭转美联储的基调，而在此前的经济状况反复造成美联储不得不后退之后，美联储更倾向于少说几句。
因而，美联储是否以及何时上调短期利率的决定主要取决于未来几周的经济数据，7月政策声明既有效地保留了美联储在9月20-21日的会议上采取行动的余地，又未发出强烈的行动决心信号。
值得注意的是，大鹰派堪萨斯联储主席乔治(Esther GEorge)对FOMC的政策行动投下反对票，因她倾向于立即上调利率。
乔治在3月和4月的政策会议上也投了反对票。
声明公布后，美元走跌、黄金上涨，市场对年内加息的预期有所提高。
据CME观察，美国联邦利率期货调查显示9月加息可能性为30%，此前预计可能为27%;高盛则将9月加息概率由25%调升至30%，12月加息概率维持40%，这意味着年内至少加息一次的概率约有70%。
此次声明发布后，市场的关注焦点将转向美联储主席耶
伦(Janet Yellen)于8月26日在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔发表的讲话，届时她可能发出未来几个月利率将何去何从的信号。
XX年12月2日，在美联储12月货币政策会议即将召开之际，美联储是否会在这次会议上宣布加息备受外界关注。
美联储主席耶伦12月2日在美国首都华盛顿发表讲话，暗示美联储即将加息，她表示期待看到美联储货币政策正常化。
美联储主席耶伦2日在华盛顿经济俱乐部发表主题为美国经济展望和货币政策的讲话，她在讲话中表示，自美联储10月货币政策会议以来，美国经济和就业市场持续改善。
耶伦说：“总体来说，10月美联储货币政策会议后的数据符合我们对就业市场持续改善的预期。
而且，就业持续改善也有利于加强通胀在中期内回归2%目标的信心。
”
美联储当天公布的关于全美经济形势的褐皮书报告也支持了耶伦的这一说法。
报告指出，在10月初到11月中旬的这个时间段内，美国绝大多数地区的经济以温和速度扩张，几乎所有地区的消费者支出都在增加，就业市场的松弛情况缓解，薪资处于稳定至上涨态势。
耶伦还在当天的讲话中表示，她有信心美国经济很可能将继续取得温和增长，失业率将会下降，而通胀率也将朝着美联储2%的目标水平小幅上升。
美联储在10月货币政策会议后的声明中曾强调，在美国就业市场继续改善、并对通胀在中期内迈向2%目标水平更
有信心时启动加息才是合适的。
有分析人士指出，耶伦2日的讲话表明她已经做好在12月美联储货币政策会议上加息的准备。
美联储10月货币政策会议声明还指出将关注国际经济形势的发展，对于目前的国际经济形势，耶伦12月2日称，尽管一些海外经济体对美国经济增长构成了一定风险，但这些来自海外经济体的下行风险自今年夏天以来已经减弱。
耶伦说：“在新兴市场经济体中，近期数据显示，中国经济放缓将可能继续保持温和且渐进。
今年中国已经采取措施来刺激经济，而且在必要情况下会采取更多措施。
”
耶伦表示，在12月15日到16日的美联储货币政策会议之前，美联储将会继续关注与经济前景有关的经济数据，包括就业、通胀等数据。
4日即将公布的非农就业报告将是12月美联储货币政策会议之前的最后一份重要报告，市场普遍预计，美联储将在12月会议上加息，除非就业数据异常疲软。
另据芝加哥商业交易所集团统计，期货市场显示投资者目前预计美联储在12月货币政策会议上加息的可能性为75%，而耶伦2日的讲话也在增强这一市场预期。
耶伦在当天的讲话中还强调，过晚加息会带来突然紧缩的风险。
耶伦说：“如果美联储过久地推迟开始政策正常化的时间，那么很可能最后造成的后果是，我们不得不相对仓促地
紧缩政策以阻止经济过度超出我们的两个目标。
这种突然紧缩政策的行动将带来破坏金融市场的风险，甚至有可能导致经济陷入衰退。
另外，过久地将联邦基金利率保持在当前水平还有可能会鼓励过度的冒险活动，从而导致金融稳定性遭到破坏。
”
在过去七年时间里，美联储一直都将其基准利率维持在接近于零的水平不变，以刺激经济复苏。
耶伦表示她期待看到美联储货币政策正常化。
耶伦说：“美国经济已经在实现美联储最高就业和物价稳定的目标上取得了很大进展。
当美联储开始正常化货币政策时，将证明这一点，也表明美国经济从金融危机和大萧条的影响中得以复苏。
从这个意义上来看，我们都期待这一天。
”
耶伦还表示，就业市场虽然已经接近美联储的目标，但目前还不能说是充分就业。
如果美联储决定加息，美联储并不会制定机械地加息的计划，加息路径将取决于今后的经济数据。
美国不少投资者和分析人士预计美联储一旦加息，加息幅度将为%到%。
在耶伦发表讲话之后，美元刷新12年新高，黄金、原油等大宗商品走低。