2013icm优秀论文

How long any more years of the earth ?AbstractWith the development of human society, the Earth's requirement for the survival of mankind have become more sophisticated, livable living environment, people aspire to live. Evaluation of health indicators is to use the Earth's Millennium Ecosystem is its evaluation, but the evaluation process ignored a number of factors, we have established a global network health model to predict the health of the planet. Firstly, we can use a simple model for the environment, resources and population were analyzed, through the establishment of the Malthusian growth model, to predict the peak of the future population, we analyzed can predict, to the early 22 century, the population may reach 10 billion, this when reaching the earth's balance.Then we have the resources and the environment on Earth for analysis. Through the analysis of resource data, find the amount of resources per capita, according to the population model to predict the number of years the use of future resources. Analysis can know, 1.74 tons of total resources / person, use of resources can be reached in 2632. We use the number of environmental pollution in recent years, major pollution analysis right weight, and explain which changes in the relationship between the weight of pollution, it found that the proportion of soil contamination increases, while the proportion of other pollution reduction, analysis, improve human quality of life requirements It is the main factor leading to change.Finally, we establish a healthy model, the health of our planet is divided into five grades. According to the environment, resources, population three analysis, the relationship between identify and make their relationship diagram, find it feasible region, and analysis shows that before the feasible region, health indicators planet for good, suitable for human survival and development. In the health indicators feasible region, the Earth is in need government regulation to keep it stable. Greater than the feasible region, health indicators planet is poor, it should put pressure on the government to improve people's way of life and resource utilization, so that the earth to achieve good health indicators.Key words:Evaluation of health ; Malthusian growth;government regulationIntroductionEarth's environmental and biological systemsare becoming more and more serious,however, it is very important for human to study the environmental and biological systems. More and more scientific studies the earth's environmental and biological systems, but now those model can’t s truly to forecast .Many models ignore complex global. In order tomaking the earth's environmental and biological systems betterforecast. We need developing model to forecast the biological and environmental health conditions. Including some aspects:1.we can build a simple global models using local or regional components of the Earth's health that predict potential state changes and help decision makers design effective policies based on their potential impact on Earth's health.2.Build a dynamic global network model of some aspect of Earth's health (you develop the measure) by identifying local elements of this condition (network nodes) and appropriately connecting them (network links) to track relationship and attribute effects.3.Run model to see how it predicts future Earth health. and One of the powerful elements of using network modeling is the ability to analyze the network structure.At first of all, we study effects of the global ecosystem in a particular area of a single element of the global ecosystem.Run Logistic mode ,by analysis, changes in population in the future, the conclusion that the maximum capacity of the population is about 10 billion, times to the early 22 century.Resource analysis, is also an important factor. We analyzed the amount of use of resources per capita in the world, and according to the growth exponential population model to predict the future to 2632, the earth's resources will be depleted.Use air pollution index, analyzes the three major pollution share of the weight, and its effect on the Earth's health indicatorsFinally, we use the earth to its comprehensive analysis of the health index. Three resources derived feasible region, feasible region, the earth's resources, the environment, the Earth's population will be the critical value of the health index. Assumptions and Symbol DescriptionAssumptions：Hypothesis 1: destruction of natural disaster don't happen in the futureHypothesis 2：world war will not occurHypothesis 3: there is no new content found enormous energyHypothesis 4: only mentioned main factors, ignoring other factorsHypothesis 5:does not take into account other factors on the population, such asearthquakes, tsunamis, etc.Hypothesis 6.without considering the impact on the environment of other factors,such as diseaseHypothesis 7.not take into account other factors that affect the resource, such as awaste of resources, etc.Symbol Description ： dxdtAny year of any population r The rate of population increase0x The population of the year1n s +; A year after the year of the resourcesn s ：One of the resourcesn p : One of the populationN ：Some yearModeling and Solution1.1 developmentLogistic modeWith the assumption that the population is continuously differentiable function of time.Suppose population growth rate is proportional to the existing population, the proportion coefficient r.At first, assume that a single variable impact on ecosystems, namely the establishment of the relationship between the population and the carrying capacity of the Earth. On the basis of assumptions, we can get a differential equation. such as formula (1)(1)Solving for (1) we obtain :()0rt x t x e =()00dxrx dt x x ⎧=⎪⎨⎪=⎩When we consider the external factors, such as air, water and resources, can be improved on the model, set its maximum carrying capacity of K, then the model is modified.Example formula (2)：(2)Solving for (2) we obtain :()()000rtKx x t x K x e -=+-The use of 1980 the number of people in the world and we assume a steady growthrate, we can predict the future of the world's population to the number .in the following table 1.1.Table1. 1 Predicting the population number1.2 Solution modeIn order to predict the relationship between the population and the carryingcapacity of the Earth, we searchfor the world's population the number on the international website in the following table1. 2.Table1.2.The relationship between the population and the timeWe can use the table to make a data pattern to describe the relationship between the time and the maximum capacity of the Figure 1.1:()00dx K x rx dtk x x-⎧⎛⎫=⎪ ⎪⎝⎭⎨⎪=⎩Figure1.1. The relationship between the population and the time From the above chart analysis we can now that when we take into account other factors,the With the increase in population after population growth rate to increase or decrease, approximately in the 1980s, the population growth rate to achieve maximum reach K / 2, if the time T tends to infinity, then the population will reach a stable value K.According to our search for global population data, import Equation 2 can be found in the According to our search for global population data, import Equation 2 can be found in the population with our forecast basically coincide, verify the correctness of our model. When the earth reaches its maximum capacity of the population is about 10 billion,times to the early 22 century.1.3The impact of policiesSome regional governments will introduce some policies, such as China's family planning policy, subsidy policy of the US population, have an overall impact on population growth in each country, if the natural population growth rate is changed, then we are only applicable to this model in predicting a country's population, but can not predict the changes in the global population growth rate on the basis of change, but on the whole, regardless of how changes in policy, how growth rates change, global population to accommodate the amount of each country's population Sum.2.1 theResourcesResources is very important tohuman. it is the lifeblood of the planet, if lose it , people will not survive, it can be divided into renewable resources and non-renewable resources, renewable resources through consumption, recycling, into the original storage resources up, and non-renewable resources through consumption will become little and little less, if unrestricted exploitation of human beings, most resources will be exhausted, the world will also be coming to an end. The amount of resources and the use of a country's population has a relationship, the greater the population the greater the consumption of resources, population and resource consumption werepositively correlated. We have an example of a Chinese analysis, the relationship between population and resource consumption. We can search for the total amount of resources in China Statistics Bureau official website. such as table2.1 .Figure 2.1 Changes Line charts renewable resources From the above chart analysis, as the population increases the number of renewable resources. Mainly because of population increase demand for resources increases, all kinds of resources into renewable resources such as solar energy into electrical energy, so that the increase of renewable raw resources.Figure 2.2 Changes Line charts Nonrenewable resourcesFrom the above chart analysis shows that:Non-renewable resources as population increases and decreases in population increases the demand for non-renewable resources of large, resulting in its stock declineAccording to changes in reserves, we can calculate the annual consumption of certainnon-renewable resources,which is:n 11nn nS ++Φ=-S P -PThe results in the following table 2.2Table 2.2 the annual consumption of certain non-renewable resources,Analysis of the chart shows that resource consumption increases with the increase in population, the per capita consumption of 1.74 tons of total resources / person, we change the model based on a natural population growth rate, according to the number of population projections to predict the future of non-renewable resources depletion time in 2632, to protect the rational use of the earth's resources before resource depletion, the government should introduce policies to restrict the exploitation of resources, limit population growth to some extent.3.1the environment Comprehensive pollution index modelFor Earth's ecological systems, pollution is an important factor. The major pollutants of air pollution, water pollution, soil pollution, along with humans in the production and development, with the population surge in our human way of life is different, you can see the pollution index is not the same every year. we establish integrated pollution index model, the establishment of a comprehensive analysis of air pollution, water pollution, soil pollution, pollution index obtained.The environmental pollution indexrepresents the environmental quality of water, air and soil pollution levels of single factor evaluation index; and then weighted evaluation method to make a comprehensive assessment of environmental pollution quantitatively, these indices reflect the macro environment quality.3.1 mode developmentWe use comprehensive pollution index to assess environmental health indicators, we first build the model.Comprehensive pollution index:1nj iji P P==∑，ij ij i C P C =，Pollutionsharing rateexpression100%ij i jP K P =⋅3.2 Solving ModelAccording to our search data, as shown in Table 3.1, for three times the pollution of the environment pollution to a comprehensive evaluation, determine its pollution rate, the comprehensive requirements of its weight. As shown in Table 3.2annual proportion, shown in Figure 3.1Figure 3.1 The main pollution share of the weight distribution According to the chart analysis, we can know that the soil pollution over time, gradually increased, while water and air pollution, decreased, mainly due to the extensive use of pesticides and fertilizers in recent years as a result of soil pollution, and improve people's quality of life, the environment and water resources quality requirements are also increasing, so the decline in the proportion of pollution. But industrial development is also an important cause of pollution. Industrial wastewater emissions, making land alkaline, desertification is serious. So an increase in land pollution, and other pollution declined.4.1 the earth health modelBy the three models, we can establish a comprehensive health indicators of the Earth, the total amount of resources, population, environmental pollution index were analyzed. First we define health indicators planet is five. Classification criteria are as follows.One for the poor, the total amount of resources, population, pollution index, reached the limits of the Earth's carrying amount exceeds its2 total pass resources, population, pollution index, will soon reach the limit, the Earth will arrive carrying over3 in total resources, population, environmental pollution index Comprehensive moderate, the overall maintained at a feasible region, then it needs to be introduced to the existing government policies with reasonable regulationThe total amount of good resources 4, population, pollution index, well, have a greater capacity of the EarthTotal five excellent resources, population, pollution index, excellent for human survival and development.We use the above data, the three fitting shown in FIG consent coordinates.According to the above to the total resources, population, environmental pollution index comprehensive analysis available, such as Figure 4.1Figure 4.1Relationship between environment, resources, population between When the number of population, total comprehensive environmental index and resources in a feasible region, indicating that at this time the Earth's health indicators, the government should introduce policies to regulate them. When the time is less than when the feasible region, indicating that at this time the Earth's health indicators as excellent or good, suitable for the production of human life. When the time is longer than when the feasible region, indicating that at this time the Earth is passing health indicators or poor. At this point it should alert the carrying capacity of the Earth to regulate natural resources and environment of the population, so that it can allow people to live in harmony.The advantages and disadvantages of population modelFor first model：Advantages: this model has simple structure, good feasibility, can better predict the growth of population growth change over time, the calculation results can be seen from the figure can be in conformity with the relationship between the number and time, can use a better description of the rule of variation of population, provide the basis for controlling the population quantity.Disadvantages: without considering the foreign staff and external environment factors on the influence of population change, such as disease, accident, such as changes in the environment and national policy, will bring fluctuation on populationgrowth.For second modelAdvantage: this model is simple to understand, and very good describes the relationship between storage of resource utilization, in the role of human Disadvantages: we in the establishment of the model and solving process, less considering the nature of production capacity, make part of resource transformation, on the other hand, we also assume that, in accordance with the current policy unchanged, it will have a little deviation between the estimated and the real value.The advantages and disadvantages of the third model:Advantages, it is the objective description of the relationship between environmental pollution to human, the model is simple and easy to understand,Disadvantages: is the integration of human and nature, and in the process of our solution, we don't have to consider the influence of the nature itself, can make the result bias.The advantages and disadvantages of the fourth model:Advantages: the model good description of population and resources, and the relationship between the environment, according to the population and the environment, the optimal balance between population and resources, it is concluded that the population range between the two, the trinity and the elastic range, and better expressed by the mutual influence between the three relations, according to the data of a few years ago and computation, can very good match, to predict the earth load balance.Disadvantages: less the model to consider other factors, such as government policies and regulations, the development of science and technology progress, and so on, can cause some deviation to predict the results.Reference[1] Jiang Qiyuan mathematical model (second edition), Higher Education Press, 1993[2] Xiang Luo. The establishment and application .Journal China Population Growth Prediction Model of Henan Institute of Science and Technology.Sep.2008[3] Zhang Xiao. Trend of and the Governance System for Water Pollution in China. Center for Enviromental and Development, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,2007[4] LI Xiao fei，ZHANG Ming- jun. Variation Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Air Pollution Index in China. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE.Jun.2012[5] Zhang Liu. Factors Influencing the‘‘KValue”of Human Carrying Capacity. China Population Resourcesand E nvironment.2007。