201年 重庆第二季度住宅报告 第一太平戴维斯EN

Image: York Villa, Hongkong Land, New North Zone Image: York Villa, Hongkong Land, New North ZoneBriefingResidential sectorJuly 2013Savills World ResearchChongqing­⏹­­R esidential transaction volumes reached 4.9 million sq m in Q2/2013, up 6.5% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ).⏹­Residential prices averaged RMB7,389 per sq m in Q2/2013, up 2.3% compared with Q1/2013. ⏹­Real estate investment reached a total of RMB127.2 billion during the first six months of 2013.⏹­Chongqing’s land market heated up dramatically this quarter, as competition between developers intensified.⏹­Fierce competition in the land market and high accommodation values will push residential prices up when the products come to the market in two to three years.“Developers have becomeincreasingly active in the land market, particularly in promising regions such as New NorthZone and Danzishi CBD.”Dave Law, Savills ResearchSUMMARYVolumes remain healthy, having risen for two consecutive quarters, while averagetransaction prices continue to record strong growth.Market newsSpring Housing Fair concludes with a total sales volume of over RMB3.2 billionChongqing Spring Housing Fair (a four-day event) concluded in April, with 5,063 units sold (4,137 first-hand units and 926 second-hand units), reaching a total sales volume of RMB3.2 billion.Macro data analysisReal estate investment reachedRMB127.2 billion during the first sixmonths of 2013, an increase of nearly28% from the same period last year.Overall residential transaction volumeshave continued to rise since Q4/2012,with transaction volumes reaching 4.9million sq m in Q2/2013, an increaseof nearly 6.5% QoQ. Along with risingtransaction volumes, residential priceshave also increased, rising by 2.3%QoQ to RMB7,389 per sq m.Jiangbei district and New North Zoneranked as the top residential locationsamong the nine districts tracked,according to their high transactionvolumes and average prices. Jiangbeidistrict has attracted buyers with itseasy accessibility, while New NorthZone is becoming known for itsagreeable surrounding environment,featuring attractions such as DongbuPark and Zhaomushan Forest Park.Despite steady growth in overallresidential prices, the high-endresidential sector saw prices fallby 0.6% in Q2/2013, reachingRMB13,986 per sq m. The pricedecrease is likely due to recentdiscounts provided by developers.Land transactionsCompetition for land plots betweendevelopers increased this quarter.Following a relatively quiet April,Chongqing’s land market experienceda surge in transactions, particularlyin promising regions like New NorthZone, where several land plots haveattracted numerous national and localdevelopers.In Lianglu, New North Zone, 12developers competed for a single landplot, with a site area of 25,967 sq mand a plot ratio of 2.5. Local developerQianghui Group (重庆强辉实业) wonthe auction, paying RMB88 million, apremium of 180% on the reserve price.In Danzishi CBD, Herui Real Estatedefeated Kaisa Group, winninga 28,433-sq m residential andcommercial land plot for RMB785million, a premium of 142%. This givesthe plot an accommodation valueof RMB8,727 per sq m, higher thanthe current residential sales price ofRMB8,000 to RMB9,000 in DanzishiCBD.Vanke and Poly joined together in lateJune to bid on a 282,400-sq m landplot in Jiangbeizui. This land plot wassold for RMB5.37 billion, reaching anaccommodation value of RMB4,342per sq m.GRAPH 3High-end residential price index, Q1/2010–Q2/2013Source: Savills ResearchOutlookDespite recent government measures designed to curb residential price growth, many cities throughout China have recorded strong growth in prices and healthy transaction volumes. This is believed to be a result of robust fundamental demand from end users, rather than speculative demand from investors, which many believe have been scared off by the tough regulations.Chongqing is no different from these other cities; demand primarily comes from continued migration into the municipality as well as upgradedemand from end users. Developers, with expectations that demand will continue to drive volumes and prices, are investing heavily in the land market to capitalise on this trend. Higher land costs – the result of fierce competition – are likely to eventually be passed along to purchasers as the cost of development continues to increase.。