七宗罪

[原创]AA七宗罪的记忆方法：因、果、证分析了两个晚上的AA，发现“七宗罪”确实是好东西，就是那些“罪”太多、而且过于零散，很难记忆。

因此将七宗罪分类整理了一下，按照论证的原因、结果、论证过程三部分，归为三个类别：因、果、证1、因就是原因上的问题，有以下三个：可疑调查样本不足结论无据2、果就是结论上的问题，有以下两个：无因果联系二者择一3、证就是论证过程上的问题，有以下两个，纵向横向各一个：错误类比（横向）时地全等（纵向）这样，只要记住了三字诀：因、果、证，就很容易记牢全部七宗罪了。

顺便分析一下本月JJ的一篇AA：“Our total sales have increased this year by 20 percent since we added a pharmacy section to ourgrocery store. Clearly, the customer’s main concern is the conven ience afforded by one-stopshopping. // 无因果联系，可能另有他因。

The surest way to increase our profits over the next coupleof years, therefore, is to add a clothing department along with an automotive supplies and repairshop. We should also plan to continue adding new departments and services, such as a restaurantand a garden shop, in subsequent years. // 时地全等 Being the only store in the area that offers such a range of services will give us a competitive advantage over oth er local stores.” // 结论无据附：七宗罪第一宗罪：无因果联系The author commits a fallacy of causal oversimplification. The line of the reasoning is that because A occurred before B, the former event is responsible for the latter. (The author uses the positive correlation between A and B to establish causality. However, the fact that A coincides with B does not necessarily prove that A caused B.) But this is fallacious reasoning unless other possible causal explanations have been considered and ruled out. For example, perhaps C is the cause of these events or perhaps B is caused by D.第二宗罪样本不足 Insufficient-sampleThe evidence the author provides is insufficient to support the conclusion drawn from it. One example is logically unsounded to establish a general conclusion (The statistics from only a few recent years are not necessarily a good indicator of future trends), unless it can be shown that A1 is representative of all A. It is possible that.... In fact, in face of such limited evidence, the conclusion that B is completely unwarranted.第三宗罪: 错误类比 (based on a false analogy )<横向>The argument rests on the assumption that A is analogous to B in all respects. This assumption is weak, since although there are points of comparison between A and B, there is much dissimilarity as well. For example, A..., however, B.... Thus, it is likely much more difficult for B to do....第四宗罪时地全等 all things are equal<纵向>The author commits the fallacy of “all things are equal”. The fact that happened two years ago is not a sound evidence to draw a conclusion that.... The author assumes without justification that the background conditions have remained the same at different times or at different locations. However, it is not clear in this argument whether the current conditions at AA are the same as they used to be two years ago. Thus it is impossible to conclude that....第五宗罪二者择一 Either-Or choiceThe author assumes that AA and BB are mutually exclusive alternatives and there is no roomfor a middle ground. However, the author provides no reason for imposing an either-or choice. Common sense tells us that adjusting both AA and BB might produce better results.第六宗罪可疑调查 survey is doubtfulThe poll cited by the author is too vague to be informative. The claim does not indicate who conducted the poll, who responded, or when, where and how the poll was conducted. (Lacking information about the number of people surveyed and the number of respondents, it is impossible to access the validity of the results. For example, if 200 persons were surveyed but only 2 responded, the conclusion that...would be highly suspect. Because the argument offers no evidence that would rule out this kind of interpretations,) Until these questions are answered, the results of the survey are worthless as evidence for the conclusion.第七宗罪结论无据 gratuitous assumptionThe author falsely depends on gratuitous assumption that.... However, no evidence is stated in the argument to support this assumption. In fact, this is not necessarily the case. For example, it is more likely that.... Therefore, this argument is unwarranted without ruling out such possibilityThe following is part of a business plan created by the management of the Megamart grocery store.“Our total sales have increased this year by 20 percent since we added a pharmacy section to our grocery store. Clearly, the customer’s main concern is the convenience afforded by one-stop shopping. The surest way to increase our profits over the next couple of years, therefore, is to add a clothing department along with an automotive supplies and repair shop. We should also plan to continue adding new departments and services, such as a restaurant and a garden shop, in subsequent years. Being the only store in the area that offers such a range of services will give u s a competitive advantage over other local stores.”Discuss how well reasoned... etc. The surest way 最有效方法The author concludes that being the only store in the area that offers a range of services will make the grocery store more competitive than other local stores. To support this conclusion, the author points out that their total sales increased by 20 percent since they added a pharmacy section to their grocery store. The author also mentioned that the customer’s main concern is the convenience afforded by one-stop shopping. Based on this evidence, the author further recommend that they continue add new departments and services in subsequent years. At first glance, the argument appears thorough and compelling, a close examination reveals various logical flaws which render the line of the author’s reasoning questionable.In the argument, the author ascribes the increase of the total sales to the fact that they added a pharmacy section to their grocery store. However, many other factors may equally contribute to this results. For instance, the better economic situations may attribute to the increased sales in the grocery store. The argument is unsound until such possibilities are taken into account and ruled out.Most conspicuously, the argument rests on the gratuitous assumption that the customer s’ mainconcern is the convenience afforded by the one-stop shopping. This assumption is weak, since no evidence is presented to establish that the customers concern the convenience most. The reason that the pharmacy section induce the increase of the total sales may be that people like the convenience of purchasing medicine in a grocery store. This dose not mean that adding other sections has the same effect.Finally, even if the preceding assumption is true, there is no guarantee that the same effect of adding other sections will be continue in the future. It is entirely possible that people are not interested in the convenience of one-stop shopping in the future. If that is the case, the profit of the grocery store may decline rather than increase. Thus the credibility of the author’s assertion is called into question.To sum up, it seems that the author’s conclusion that being the only store that offers a range of services will make the grocery store more competitive than other local stores is seriously undermined by the flaws in his reasoning identified above. To substantiate the argument, the author would have to provide solid evidence that people concern the convenience of one-stop shopping most rather than other factors such as the quality of the goods. In addition, the author should take into consideration that the addition of the primacy section may not be the only reason attributes to the increase of the total sales. Unless these key issues are properly addressed, the argument isn’t sound and convincing.In the argument, the author concludes that ….To support the conclusion, the author cites the study indicating that…,the author points out that..the author also mentions that …..,based on this evidence, the author further recommend that …At first glance, the argument appears thorough and compelling, a close examination reveals various logical flaws which render the line of reasoning questionable.To sum up, it seems that the author’s conclusion that …is seriously undermined by the flaws identified in his reasoning. To substantiate the argument ,the author would have to provide solid evidence that … Further more, the author should take into consideration that….Unless these key issues are properly addressed, the argument isn’t sound and compelling.To sum up ,the author’s conclusion that …is seriously undermined by the flaws identified in his reasoning. To substantiate the argument ,the author would have to provide solid evidence that …In addition, the author should take into consideration that …. ,Unless these key issues are properly addressed ,the argument isn’t sound and convincing.有他因：In the argument ,the author ascribe x to the fact that .however, it is not necessarily the case. Many other factors may contribute to the result. For instance, ……..错误类比：The author assumes that a is analogous to b. however their difference outweigh their their their their their their their their their their their their similarities. The author actually make a false anolagy. For instance ,..will be poles apart if …..without taking into account such difference, theassumption is groundless.Unchanged（时地全等）：the author assumes that all conditions of。