供求关系对房地产价格的影响分析

供求关系对房地产价格的影响分析

摘要

随着我国经济的快速发展，房地产业对国民经济的基础作用、先导作用和支柱作用日益突出，商品房作为房地产中最主要的组成部分，其发展、变化和运行情况直接影响整个房地产行业的发展，进而影响着国民经济的运行和国民的生活质量。近几年来，我国大部分大中城市的房地产价格达到了相当的高位，并且呈现出持续上涨之势，严重超过了我国绝大多数国民的心理承受能力和实际购买力，对此，我国的房地产价格亟需进行调控和抑制，以稳定房地产市场。房地产价格持续快速上涨的主要原因是商品房的供需失衡，因此，本论文选择商品房的供给与需求为研究对象，再根据一般供求定理，利用计量经济学知识和EViews运行软件，通过从中国统计局收集到的样本数据，引入房地产价格与商品房供给，房地产价格与商品房需求的关系模型，并通过经济学检验、变量的拟合优度、回归方程的显着性和异方差性检验等方法来验证模型的正确性。根据房地产价格与商品房供给和需求模型的研究分析结果，结合目前我国房地产市场的发展现状和存在的问题，为我国抑制房价持续上涨、稳定房地产市场提出几点合理的政策性建议。

关键词房地产价格；供需失衡；模型分析；政策性建议

The Analysis on the Impact of Supply and Demand on Real Estate Price

Abstract

With China's rapid economic development, the role of the real estate industry on the basis of the national economy, the leading role and pillar increasingly prominent role in commercial real estate as the most important component of its development, change, and directly affect the operation of the entire real estate industry, thereby affecting the operation of the national economy and the people's quality of life. In recent years, most of our cities real estate prices reached a fairly high level, and showing a rising trend, the vast majority of our citizens seriously than mental capacity and the actual purchasing power, which, China's real estate prices urgent need for regulation and suppression, to stabilize the real estate market. Real estate prices continued to rise rapidly mainly due to real estate supply and demand imbalance, therefore, this paper choose housing supply and demand as the research object, according to the general supply and demand theory, knowledge and use of econometric software EViews runs through the collection from the Chinese Bureau of Statistics to sample data, the introduction of real estate prices and housing supply, housing prices and housing demand relationship model, and through econometric testing, goodness of fit variables, the significance of the regression equation and heteroscedasticity tests and other methods to validate the model correctness. According to real estate prices and the housing supply and demand model of analysis results, combined with the current development status of China's real estate market and problems for China to curb housing prices continued to rise, stabilize the real estate market to make a few sensible policy recommendations.

Keywords Real estate prices；Supply and demand imbalance；Model analysis；Policy recommendations.

目录

摘要...................................................................................................................... I Abstract ............................................................................................................... II 第1章绪论. (1)

1.1 研究背景.....................................................................................................

1.2 研究内容.....................................................................................................

1.3 研究方法.....................................................................................................

1.4 研究意义..................................................................................................... 第2章房地产市场的相关概念及理论基础........................................................

2.1 房地产的相关概念.....................................................................................

2.1.1 房地产价格..........................................................................................

2.1.2 商品房的供求关系..............................................................................

2.2 房地产的相关理论.....................................................................................

2.2.1 商品房的供求定理............................................ 错误!未指定书签。

2.2.2 商品房供求函数模型.......................................................................... 第3章我国房地产市场发展现状及存在问题....................................................

3.1 我国房地产市场发展现状....................................... 错误!未定义书签。

3.1.1 投资增速放缓但总量创新高..............................................................

3.1.2 房地产价格持续上升..........................................................................

3.1.3 商品房需求依然旺盛..........................................................................

3.2 我国房地产市场存在的问题.....................................................................

3.2.1 房地产制度不完善刺激了市场的投机性..........................................

3.2.2 住房保障体系相对滞后......................................................................

3.2.3 我国住房供需失衡.............................................................................. 第4章商品房供求函数模型设计与实证结果分析............................................

4.1 商品房供求模型设计与样本数据收集.....................................................

4.1.1 商品房需求与供给函数模型的设计..................................................

4.1.2 商品房供求函数模型样本数据的收集..............................................

4.2 商品房供求函数模型参数的估计........................... 错误!未定义书签。

4.2.1 商品房需求函数模型参数的估计......................................................

4.2.2 商品房供给函数模型参数的估计......................................................

4.3 商品房供求模型的检验与修正............................... 错误!未指定书签。

4.3.1 商品房需求与供给函数模型的检验..................................................

4.3.2 商品房需求与供给函数模型的修正..................................................

4.4 商品房供求函数模型实证结果分析.........................................................

4.4.1 商品房需求函数模型实证结果分析..................................................