宏观经济学曼昆版PPT82962280
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曼昆《经济学原理》宏观经济学ppt课件
研究对象
宏观经济学主要关注整个经济体系的总体运行，包 括总需求、总供给、国民收入、物价水平、就业和 经济增长等。
宏观经济学与微观经济学的关系
相互联系
宏观经济学和微观经济学是经济学的两个重要分支，它们之间相互联系、相互补充。 微观经济学是宏观经济学的基础，而宏观经济学则是微观经济学的延伸和扩展。
区别
开放经济下的政策目标
货币政策与财政政策
实现内外部经济均衡，即国内经济增长、充 分就业、物价稳定和国际收支平衡。
在开放经济下，政府可以运用货币政策和财 政政策来调节经济，但需要考虑汇率和国际 收支等因素。
汇率政策
国际经济政策协调
政府可以通过调整汇率水平来影响国际经济 活动和国内经济状况。
各国政府需要加强国际经济政策协调，共同 应对全球性经济问题，促进世界经济稳定发 展。
支持通货膨胀
凯恩斯主义宏观经济学派认为，适度的通货膨胀可以刺激 经济增长，政府可以通过控制货币供应量等手段来调节通 货膨胀率。
货币主义宏观经济学派
强调货币供应量
货币主义宏观经济学派认为，货币供应量的变化是影响经济波动 的主要因素，政府应该通过控制货币供应量来调节经济。
主张单一规则
该学派主张政府应该制定一个固定的货币增长规则，并严格执行， 以保持物价的稳定和经济的增长。
VS
政策效应互补
货币政策和财政政策在调控经济时具有不 同的特点和优势，可以相互补充、协调配 合，提高宏观调控效果。例如，在治理通 货膨胀时，可以采取紧缩性货币政策和扩 张性财政政策相配合的方式；在促进经济 增长时，可以采取扩张性货币政策和紧缩 性财政政策相配合的方式。
05
国际经济学与宏观经济政策
Chapter
宏观经济学曼昆版PPT
PRESENT VALUE: MEASURING THE TIME VALUE OF MONEY
• Future Value
• The amount of money in the future that an amount of money today will yield, given prevailing interest rates, is called the future value.
CASE STUDY: Random Walks and Index Funds
• Random walk refers to the path of a variable whose changes are impossible to predict.
• If markets are efficient, all stocks are fairly valued and no stock is more likely to appreciate than another. Thus stock prices follow a random walk.
• Risk-averse people can reduce risk using insurance, through diversification, and by choosing a portfolio with lower risk and lower returns.
• The value of an asset, such as a share of stock, equals the present value of the cash flows the owner of the share will receive, including the stream of dividends and the final sale price.
曼昆宏观经济学ppt课件(2024)
平台经济、共享经济等新模 式不断涌现，对传统经济理 论提出挑战。
2024/1/28
数据成为新的生产要素，对 经济增长贡献度不断提升。
需要加强数字经济理论研究 ，为政策制定提供科学依据 。
43
THANKS
感谢观看
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宏观经济学定义与研究对象
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宏观经济学定义
宏观经济学是研究整体经济现象 、经济运行规律及政府如何运用 经济政策调控经济的学科。
研究对象
宏观经济学以整个国民经济为研 究对象，包括总需求、总供给、 国民收入、就业、通货膨胀、经 济增长等问题。
4
宏观经济学与微观经济学关系
联系
宏观经济学与微观经济学都是经济学的重要分支，两者相互联系、相互补充。 微观经济学是宏观经济学的基础，宏观经济学则需要微观经济学的支持。
01
02
03
实际收入减少
物价上涨导致货币购买力 下降，实际收入减少。
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社会财富再分配
通货膨胀有利于债务人而 不利于债权人，导致社会 财富再分配。
经济秩序紊乱
通货膨胀可能导致价格信 号失真，经济秩序紊乱。
20
经济增长因素、模型及政策含义
劳动力投入
劳动力数量和质量的提高对经济增长有重要贡献。
04
实施积极的财政政策和货币政策，保持经 济稳定增长。
25
04
总供给与总需求模型分析
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总供给曲线形状及影响因素剖析
要点一
长期总供给曲线
要点二
短期总供给曲线
垂直，表示在长期内，经济总产出不受价格水平影响。
向右上方倾斜，表示短期内价格水平与总产出呈正相关。
第七版-曼昆宏观经济学课件
18
两部门国民收入流量循环图
生产要素市场
Y
工资，租金，利息，利润
家 庭 储蓄 金融机构 投资 企 业
S
I
购买各种产品和劳务
C 商品市场
总收入
2019/12/31
C+S =Y= C+I
总支出
19
三部门国民收入流量循环图
TR
G
政府
TA1 Y
TA2
家庭 S
金融机构 I
总
收 入
C
C+S+（TA-TR）= Y = C+I+G
5) GDP 是一国范围内生产的最终产品和 劳务的市场价值。
6) GDP一般仅指市场活动导致的价值。
2019/12/31
6
3.名义的GDP和实际的GDP
1) 名义的GDP(Nominal GDP)
以一定时期市场价格表示的国内生产
总值，称作该时期的名义的GDP。
2) 实际的GDP(Real GDP)
3. 国民收入(NI)National Income NI = NDP-间接税-企业转移支付+政府补贴
4.个人收入(PI)Personal Income PI=NI-公司未分配利润-公司所得税-社会保险
税+政府对个人的转移支付 5. 个人可支配收入(PDI)
Personal Disposable Income PDI = PI - 个人所得税
2019/12/31
12
部门法
一块面包的GDP的部门法核算
生产部门
市场价值（元） 附加价值（元）
农资公司（种子化肥）
0.10
0.10
农场（种小麦）
宏观经济学曼昆ppt课件
35
消费函数与储蓄函数的关系
CS APC>1
APC<1 APC=1
+s
E
ΔS
C=a+β(Yd)
ΔC
ΔYd
S=-a+(1-β)Yd
a -s
0 -s
+s
ΔS Yd
Yd0
-a
APS<0
APS=0
APS>0
36
非线性消费函数和储蓄函数
CS
C=Y
C=f(Y)
a 0 -a
MPS>APS
S=f(Y)
Y
C曲线上某点的射线的斜率为APC C曲线上某点的切线的斜率为MPC S曲线上某点的射线的斜率为APS S曲线上某点的切线的斜率为MPS
28
4. 国民收入的划分 经济利润(Π)= Y (MPL L) (MPK K)
Y= (MPL • L) + (MPK• K) +Π 国民收入=工资+利息+利润 欧拉定理: 如果生产函数具有规模收益不变的性质,那么: Y= F(K,L) = (MPL • L) + (MPK• K)
国民收入=工资+利息 会计利润=经济利润+(MPK • K)
▪ = (1-t)Y+TR-T0
▪ C = a +βYd
▪ β(1-t)=ΔC/ΔY,为国民收入的边际消费倾向。
33
二、 储蓄函数(Save function) 1. 定义: 表示储蓄与决定储蓄的各种因素之间的数量 关系。 2. 公式： S =Yd – C =Yd –(a+βYd) = - a +(1-β)Yd 3. 平均储蓄倾向(APS) 表示平均每单位可支配收入中的储蓄量。 APS = S/Yd
消费函数与储蓄函数的关系
CS APC>1
APC<1 APC=1
+s
E
ΔS
C=a+β(Yd)
ΔC
ΔYd
S=-a+(1-β)Yd
a -s
0 -s
+s
ΔS Yd
Yd0
-a
APS<0
APS=0
APS>0
36
非线性消费函数和储蓄函数
CS
C=Y
C=f(Y)
a 0 -a
MPS>APS
S=f(Y)
Y
C曲线上某点的射线的斜率为APC C曲线上某点的切线的斜率为MPC S曲线上某点的射线的斜率为APS S曲线上某点的切线的斜率为MPS
28
4. 国民收入的划分 经济利润(Π)= Y (MPL L) (MPK K)
Y= (MPL • L) + (MPK• K) +Π 国民收入=工资+利息+利润 欧拉定理: 如果生产函数具有规模收益不变的性质,那么: Y= F(K,L) = (MPL • L) + (MPK• K)
国民收入=工资+利息 会计利润=经济利润+(MPK • K)
▪ = (1-t)Y+TR-T0
▪ C = a +βYd
▪ β(1-t)=ΔC/ΔY,为国民收入的边际消费倾向。
33
二、 储蓄函数(Save function) 1. 定义: 表示储蓄与决定储蓄的各种因素之间的数量 关系。 2. 公式： S =Yd – C =Yd –(a+βYd) = - a +(1-β)Yd 3. 平均储蓄倾向(APS) 表示平均每单位可支配收入中的储蓄量。 APS = S/Yd
宏观经济学曼昆版PPT精品文档
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
CASE STUDY: Random Walks and Index Funds
• Random walk refers to the path of a variable whose changes are impossible to predict.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
PRESENT VALUE: MEASURING THE TIME VALUE OF MONEY
• If r is the interest rate, then an amount X to be received in N years has present value of: X/(1 + r)N
• A person can compare sums from different times using the concept of present value.
• The present value of any future sum is the amount that would be needed today, given prevailing interest rates, to produce the future sum.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Efficient Markets Hypothesis • A market is informationally efficient when it
reflects all available information in a rational way. • If markets are efficient, the only thing an investor can do is buy a diversified portfolio
CASE STUDY: Random Walks and Index Funds
• Random walk refers to the path of a variable whose changes are impossible to predict.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
PRESENT VALUE: MEASURING THE TIME VALUE OF MONEY
• If r is the interest rate, then an amount X to be received in N years has present value of: X/(1 + r)N
• A person can compare sums from different times using the concept of present value.
• The present value of any future sum is the amount that would be needed today, given prevailing interest rates, to produce the future sum.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Efficient Markets Hypothesis • A market is informationally efficient when it
reflects all available information in a rational way. • If markets are efficient, the only thing an investor can do is buy a diversified portfolio
宏观经济学曼昆版PPT
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
• Finance is the field that studies how people make decisions regarding the allocation of resources over time and the handling of risk.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Diversification of Idiosyncratic Risk • Idiosyncratic risk is the risk that affects only a
single person. The uncertainty associated with specific companies.
• A person can compare sums from different times using the concept of present value.
• The present value of any future sum is the amount that would be needed today, given prevailing interest rates, to produce the future sum.
100% stocks
3.1
0
5
10
15
20
Risk
(standard
deviation)
Copyright©2004 South-Western
ASSET VALUATION
• Fundamental analysis is the study of a company’s accounting statements and future prospects to determine its value.
• Finance is the field that studies how people make decisions regarding the allocation of resources over time and the handling of risk.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Diversification of Idiosyncratic Risk • Idiosyncratic risk is the risk that affects only a
single person. The uncertainty associated with specific companies.
• A person can compare sums from different times using the concept of present value.
• The present value of any future sum is the amount that would be needed today, given prevailing interest rates, to produce the future sum.
100% stocks
3.1
0
5
10
15
20
Risk
(standard
deviation)
Copyright©2004 South-Western
ASSET VALUATION
• Fundamental analysis is the study of a company’s accounting statements and future prospects to determine its value.
2024版曼昆《宏观经济学》课件讲义
• 产业政策分析：产业政策是政府为了促进特定产业发展而采取的一系列政策措施。在总需求-总供给模型中， 产业政策可以通过改变生产要素配置、技术创新和市场竞争环境等方式来影响相关产业的供给能力和市场需求。 例如，政府可以通过提供税收优惠、投资补贴等方式来降低企业成本和提高盈利能力；同时也可以通过加强知 识产权保护、推动技术创新等方式来提高企业竞争力和市场地位；这些措施可以促进相关产业快速发展并满足 市场需求。
总需求曲线表示不同价格水平下，经济社会中商品和劳 务的需求量。它通常向右下方倾斜，表明价格水平与总 需求量之间存在负相关关系。总需求曲线的推导基于货 币数量论、利率效应、财富效应等因素。
影响因素分析
影响总需求曲线的因素包括物价水平、收入水平、利率 水平、消费者信心等。物价水平上升会导致实际货币供 应量减少，进而降低总需求；收入水平提高会增加消费 和投资支出，从而增加总需求；利率水平下降会降低储 蓄倾向，增加消费和投资支出，提高总需求；消费者信 心增强会促进消费和投资支出增加，推动总需求上升。
经济秩序紊乱
通货膨胀会破坏正常的经 济秩序，使价格信号失真， 导致资源配置不合理。
经济增长因素、模型及政策含义
劳动力投入
劳动力数量和质量的提高对经济增长有重要推动作用。
资本积累
物质资本和人力资本的积累是经济增长的重要基础。
经济增长因素、模型及政策含义
• 技术进步：科技创新和技术进步是提 高生产效率、促进经济增长的关键因 素。
同时，汇率变动还会影响国际资本流动和国内物价水平。
国际收支平衡表编制及分析方法
国际收支平衡表的基本构成
包括经常账户、资本与金融账户、错误与遗 漏账户等。
经常账户分析
主要分析货物贸易、服务贸易、收益和经常 转移等项目的变动情况。
总需求曲线表示不同价格水平下，经济社会中商品和劳 务的需求量。它通常向右下方倾斜，表明价格水平与总 需求量之间存在负相关关系。总需求曲线的推导基于货 币数量论、利率效应、财富效应等因素。
影响因素分析
影响总需求曲线的因素包括物价水平、收入水平、利率 水平、消费者信心等。物价水平上升会导致实际货币供 应量减少，进而降低总需求；收入水平提高会增加消费 和投资支出，从而增加总需求；利率水平下降会降低储 蓄倾向，增加消费和投资支出，提高总需求；消费者信 心增强会促进消费和投资支出增加，推动总需求上升。
经济秩序紊乱
通货膨胀会破坏正常的经 济秩序，使价格信号失真， 导致资源配置不合理。
经济增长因素、模型及政策含义
劳动力投入
劳动力数量和质量的提高对经济增长有重要推动作用。
资本积累
物质资本和人力资本的积累是经济增长的重要基础。
经济增长因素、模型及政策含义
• 技术进步：科技创新和技术进步是提 高生产效率、促进经济增长的关键因 素。
同时，汇率变动还会影响国际资本流动和国内物价水平。
国际收支平衡表编制及分析方法
国际收支平衡表的基本构成
包括经常账户、资本与金融账户、错误与遗 漏账户等。
经常账户分析
主要分析货物贸易、服务贸易、收益和经常 转移等项目的变动情况。
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• It can take years to propose, pass, and implement a major change in fiscal policy.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Con: Policymakers should not try to stabilize the economy
• Monetary policy affects the economy with long and unpredictable lags between the need to act and the time that it takes for these policies to work.
• Many studies indicate that changes in monetary policy have little effect on aggregate demand until about six months after the change is made.
2.Should monetary policy be made by rule rather than by discretion?
3.Should the central bank aim for zero inflation? 4.Should the government balance its budget? 5.Should the tax laws be reformed to encourage
• All too often policymakers can inadvertently exacerbate rather than mitigate the magnitude of economic fluctuations.
• It might be desirable if policy makers could eliminate all economic fluctuations, but this is not a realistic goal.
• The economy is inherently unstable, and left on its own will fluctuate.
• Policy can manage aggregate demand in order to offset this inherent instability and reduce the severity of economic fluctuations.
• Discretionary monetary policy can suffer from incompetence and abuse of power.
• To the extent that central bankers ally themselves with politicians, discretionary policy can lead to economic fluctuations that reflect the electoral calendar—the political business cycle.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
2. Should monetary policy be made by rule rather than by discretion?
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Pro: Monetary policy should be made by rule
• Monetary and fiscal policy can stabilize aggregate demand and, thereby, production and employment.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
ቤተ መጻሕፍቲ ባይዱ
Con: Policymakers should not try to stabilize the economy
13
FINAL THOUGHTS
Five Debates Over Macroeconomic Policy
36
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Five Debates over Macroeconomic Policy
1.Should monetary and fiscal policymakers try to stabilize the economy?
saving?
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
1. Should monetary and fiscal policymakers try to stabilize the economy?
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Pro: Policymakers should try to stabilize the economy
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Con: Policymakers should not try to stabilize the economy
• Fiscal policy works with a lag because of the long political process that governs changes in spending and taxes.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Pro: Policymakers should try to stabilize the economy
• There is no reason for society to suffer through the booms and busts of the business cycle.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Con: Policymakers should not try to stabilize the economy
• Monetary policy affects the economy with long and unpredictable lags between the need to act and the time that it takes for these policies to work.
• Many studies indicate that changes in monetary policy have little effect on aggregate demand until about six months after the change is made.
2.Should monetary policy be made by rule rather than by discretion?
3.Should the central bank aim for zero inflation? 4.Should the government balance its budget? 5.Should the tax laws be reformed to encourage
• All too often policymakers can inadvertently exacerbate rather than mitigate the magnitude of economic fluctuations.
• It might be desirable if policy makers could eliminate all economic fluctuations, but this is not a realistic goal.
• The economy is inherently unstable, and left on its own will fluctuate.
• Policy can manage aggregate demand in order to offset this inherent instability and reduce the severity of economic fluctuations.
• Discretionary monetary policy can suffer from incompetence and abuse of power.
• To the extent that central bankers ally themselves with politicians, discretionary policy can lead to economic fluctuations that reflect the electoral calendar—the political business cycle.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
2. Should monetary policy be made by rule rather than by discretion?
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Pro: Monetary policy should be made by rule
• Monetary and fiscal policy can stabilize aggregate demand and, thereby, production and employment.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
ቤተ መጻሕፍቲ ባይዱ
Con: Policymakers should not try to stabilize the economy
13
FINAL THOUGHTS
Five Debates Over Macroeconomic Policy
36
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Five Debates over Macroeconomic Policy
1.Should monetary and fiscal policymakers try to stabilize the economy?
saving?
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
1. Should monetary and fiscal policymakers try to stabilize the economy?
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Pro: Policymakers should try to stabilize the economy
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Con: Policymakers should not try to stabilize the economy
• Fiscal policy works with a lag because of the long political process that governs changes in spending and taxes.
Copyright © 2004 South-Western
Pro: Policymakers should try to stabilize the economy
• There is no reason for society to suffer through the booms and busts of the business cycle.