宏观经济学6.总供给(工资.价格.失业)

6-3 STAGATION, EXPECTED INFLATION ,AND THE INFLATIONEXPECTATION-AUGMENTED PHILIPS CURVE滞胀,通货膨胀预期,通 货膨胀预期扩展的菲利普斯曲线

The simple Phillips curve relationship fell apart after the 1960s, both in Britain and in United States.


预期通货膨胀通 过传递演化为实 际的通货膨胀率 在实际通货膨胀 率等于预期通货 膨胀率时,失业率 为自然失业率.

The role of expected inflation in moving the Phillips curve adds another automatic adjustment mechanism to the aggregate supply side of the economy.
Anticipated inflation

在美国和英 国,20世纪60年 以后,简单菲利 普斯曲线在英 国和美国都不 起作用 预期通货膨胀




失业率不取决于 通货膨胀率,而是 取决于通货膨胀 率超过预期的部 分。

two properties of modern Phillips curve

卢卡斯思想的精 华:

修改允许犯 错误起作用 的假设.

Good economic models assume that economic actors behave intelligently, and so the intellectual appeal of rational expectation is completely irresistible.

预期通货膨胀 的作用
Fig 6-7 Inflation Expectations and the Short-Run Phillips Curve
STAGFLATION (滞胀)

Stagflation is a term coined to mean high unemployment (“stagnation”) and high inflation.

总供给曲线越平 坦,产出和就为业 变化对当前价格 的影响越小。 如果价格对失业 率的响应较小,总 供给曲线将会较 为平坦. 方程式（1）的 系数λ抓住了产出 -价格变化之间的 联系.



the position of short-run schedule depends on the level of prices.
总供给曲线将 价格与产出联 结起来 菲利普斯曲线 和总供给曲线 是透视同一个 现象的可替代 的方法


According to the modern Phillips curve, inflation depends on expectations of inflation, as well as unemployment Price adjustment mechanism The link between unemployment and inflation is called the Phillips curve.

菲利普斯曲 线:失业率与 货币工资增 长率之间的 逆向关系.
6-2 INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT 通货膨胀和失业

In other words, there is a tradeoff between wage inflation and unemployment.

在工资上涨率与 失业之间存在替 换关系

不完全信息--市场出清:

源于工人的 滞缓反应或 对于价格变 化的不完全 信息

Coordination problems: focuses more on the process by which firms adjust their prices when demand changes than on wages. Coordination problems can also help explain why wages are sticky downward .
P
The speed of price adjustment is controlled by the parameterλin equation.
价格调整的速度是由参数λ控制的.
t+1=Pt[1+
λ (Y-Y*)] Nhomakorabeaig 6-1 The Dynamic Return to Long-Run Aggregate Supply

工资是粘性的, 或工资的调整 是缓慢的,当工 资随时间缓慢 调整,而不是完 全和立即的弹 性调整时,可以 保证在每一个 时点上的充分 就业.
WAGE STICKNESS 工资粘性


Imperfect information ---market clearing: arises from workers‟ slow reactions to or imperfect information about changes in prices.
the description of the aggregate supply schedule as follows



the aggregate supply schedule is flatter the smaller the impact of output and employment changes on current prices If prices respond very little to changes in unemployment , the AS schedule in figure 6-1 will be very flat. The coefficient λ in equation (1)_captures this output-pricechange linkage.

焦点在于工 资是作为激 励劳动者努 力工作的工 具.
6-6 FROM PHILLIPS CURVE TO THE AGGREGATE SUPPLY CURVE
工资与失业率之间的联系:为什么工资 是粘性的?

Wages are sticky, or wage adjustment is sluggish, when wages move slowly over time, rather than being fully and immediately flexible, so as to ensure full employment at every point in time.


根据现代菲利 普斯曲线,通货 膨胀率取决于 通货膨胀预期 和失业率. 价格调整机制 失业率与通货 膨胀的联系称 之为菲利普斯 曲线
6-1 the aggregate supply curve and the price adjustment mechanism 总供给曲线和价格调整机制


traditional model
Set by recent historical experiences
Shift is pretty much instantaneous
Shift is only gradual
6-5 the wage –unemployment
relationship :why are wages sticky?
Fig6-4 The Original Phillips Curve for the United Kingdom
THE POLICY TRADEOFF 政策权衡(替换)

The Phillips curve rapidly became a cornerstone of macroeconomic policy analysis.

滞胀的含 义: 意味着 高的失业 率(„„停滞‘) 与高的通 货膨胀率.
6-4
THE RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS REVOLUTION
理性预期革命

The genius that Robert Lucas showed in bringing the idea of rational expectations into macroeconomics was to modify the argument by allowing for the role of mistakes.
the short run AS schedule shifts over time.



短期计划依 赖于价格水 平 短期总供给 曲线会随时 间而发生改 变
6-2 INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT 通货膨胀和失业

THE PHILLIPS CURVE is an inverse relationship between the rate of unemployment and the rate of increase in money wages.
The piece of the puzzle that is missing in the simple Phillips is the role of price expectation

菲利普斯曲线 很快成为宏观 经济政策分析 的基石 在简单菲利普 斯曲线中回避 的一个难题:价 格预期的作用



总供给曲线 描述了经济 中的价格调 整机制 菲利普斯曲 线将通货膨 胀与失业问 题联系起来.