国贸毕业外文文献及其翻译word版本
China’s Competitive Performance: A Threat To East Asian Manufactured Exports?There is growing concern in Southeast and East Asia about the competitive threat posed by China’s burgeoning exports, exacerbated by its accession to the WTO. The threat is not confined to labor-intensive products but spans the whole technological and skill range. At the same time, China is rapidly raising its imports from the region, and it is not clear whether its burgeoning exports will damage its neighbors. We examine the dime nsions of China’s competitive threat in the 1990s, benchmarking competitive performance by technology and market, and finds that market share losses are so far mainly in low technology products, with Japan being the most vulnerable market. We analyze market share changes and highlight product groups that are directly or indirectly exposed to a competitive threat. We examine intra-regional trade and find that China and its neighbors are raising high technology exports in tandem: the nature of the international production systems involved lead to complementarily rather than confrontation. China is thus acting as an engine of export growth for its neighbors in terms of direct trade. However, this will change as China moves up the value chain and takes on the activities that have driven East Asian export growth.IntroductionConcern about China’s competitive threat is widespread (in developed economies like US as well as developing ones like Mexico), but is strongest in East and Southeast Asia. China’s burgeoning exports–backed by cheap and productive labor, a large stock of technical manpower, huge and diversified industrial sector, attractiveness to foreign investors, pragmatic use of industrial policy, and, now, freer access to world markets under WTO – lead to apocalyptic visions of export losses.2 China is most threatening to neighbors that rely primarily on low wages for their export advantage. However, as it upgrades its export structure, the more advanced economies (Singapore, Hong Kong, Korea and Taiwan) also fear for their competitiveness. The current hollowing out of their low-end manufacturing may soon extend to complex production, design, development and related services. Domestic markets are also threatened by China, but so far most attention seems to have been on exports.Offsetting this threat are the promise of the giant Chinese market (WTOaccession is only one of several initiatives to liberalize regional trade) and the potential for collaboration with it in exporting to the rest of the world. Trade within the East Asian region is flourishing. China is a growing importer from the region of natural resources that it does not possess. It is also raisin g imports of manufactured products. Its advanced neighbors are selling it sophisticated consumer and producer goods, and using it as a base for processing exports to third countries. The multinational companies (MNCs) that now account for around half of Chinese exports (and far more of its high technology exports, UNCTAD,2002) are incorporating China into production systems spanning the region (‘fragmentation’ and‘segmentation’ are used to describe this phenomenon3), so promoting considerable intra-firm trade with other regional bases. China’s own enterprises are likely to specialize with respect to reg ional counterparts and so raise intra-industry trade in differentiated products. Perhaps worryingly for competitors in other regions, such integration can lead China to complement regional competitiveness as a whole, rather than substitute its exports for those of its neighbors.It is difficult to assess, however, whether complementarily between China and the regional economies will fully offset its competitive threat. The dynamics and complexity of the interactions make it impossible to quantify the outcome, even to predict broad directions. The basic issue is whether China’s higher wage neighbors can move into more advanced export activities or functions rapidly enough to permit continued export expansion. If they can, they can continue with export-led growth. If they cannot, they will suffer export deceleration and/or a shift in specialization towards primary products or slow-growing segments of manufactured exports. The outcome, in other words, will depend on the relative growth of technological and other capabilities in Chinese and regional enterprises, with the former having such advantages as lower wages, larger scale economies, greater industrial depth, pools of technical skill and a proactive government. However, as East Asian countries differ widely in these factors (Lall, 2001), they face different kinds and intensity of competitive threat. The nature of the threat depends, moreover, on the organization of the production and marketing system: independent local firms are likely to compete more directl y than affiliates of thesame MNC spread over different countries in an integrated system.This paper does not try to measure China’s competitive threat or its effects, but to map relative export performance in the 1990s by technology and destination and so assess where the threat appears most intense. We focus on major East Asian exporters5 and on exports to third markets, but we also analyses complementarities between China and East Asia, particularly in electronics, the region’s largest export and the one where MNC systems dominate. As the 1990s predate China’s WTO accession, we do not go into the implications of this accession; however, the analysis of competitive trends has implications for the evolution of future trade by the region as liberalization grows.Background on Chinese export performanceChinese manufactured exports grew by 16.9% per annum over 1990-2000, compared to 6.4% for the world, 12.0% for all developing countries and 10.3% for the rest of East Asia. Its share of world manufactured exports rose from 1.7% to 4.4% over the decade and continued rising rapidly. 6 Thus, by 2002 China accounted for 5.1% of world merchandise exports; it was then the fifth largest exporter (after USA, Germany, Japan and France, and ahead of the UK). China’s share of developing world manufactured exports rose from 11% to 20% over the 1990s and of the East Asian region excluding China from 18.7% to 41.8%. Its export gains (see below) spanned the entire technological spectrum, and were most dynamic in the complex end of the range, in products that have recently driven the export growth of the rest of East Asia.This export surge is likely to be sustained for some time to come. China has ‘spare capacity’ in that its per capita exports are still relatively small,7 wages are much lower than in its main neighbors and it has large reserves of cheap and disciplined labor (though drawing it into exports will involve the cost of building links with the interior).8 More importantly, its advantages are not static (confined to cheap labor); they are upgrading rapidly. China is investing heavily in technology and advanced skills; for example, the share of the relevant age group enrolled in tertiary education rose from 9 percent in 1997 to 13 percent in 2000 (UNESCO website). It is exploiting the scale offered by its giant market to become competitive in capital-intensive activities beyond the reach of manyneighbors. It is using its diverse industrial base to deepen local content. It is drawing in export-oriented FDI at an impressive rate, using its market attractions to induce investors to raise local R&D and linkages; till now it has been able to impose performance requirements of the type soon to be banned under WTO rules.WTO accession may constrain China’s ability to use indust rial policy (Nolan, 2001) but it will also open up new export opportunities, particularly in textiles and garments.9 Accession may also enhance its domestic competitiveness: it will improve the investment climate for FDI, make imported inputs cheaper (for enterprises outside special export regimes) and induce faster restructuring of domestic enterprises (Ianchovichinaetal, 2003, and Lemoyne and Unal-Kesenci, 2002).Market share changes in major developed country marketsWe analyze market shares of China and its neighbors in three major markets: Japan, the US and West Europe, according to technology categories (Annex Table 1). In terms of value, the most important market for China in 2000 is the US ($49 billion), followed by Japan ($36 billion) and West Europe ($38 billion). However, the rest of the world is almost as large a destination for Chinese exports as these together ($106 billion in 2000) and within this the rest of East Asia is larger than any major OECD market by itself ($74.6 billion).The competitive position of each country can be analyzed in terms of the market share in 1990 and 2000 and the change over the decade. The annex table shows the following:Total manufactured exports: China does best in Japan, followed at some distance by the US. In common with most neighbors, its market share gain is weakest in West Europe. Korea loses market shares in both Japan and US, while Taiwan loses only in the US. Hong Kong’s loses market shares in all markets, particularly in the US and Japan. Like Taiwan, Singapore loses only in the US. The new Tigers gain share in all markets. With the exception of Indonesia, with a rather tepid performance, the others all gain most share in the Japanese market. Resource based products: China again leads the region in terms of market share increases, with a pattern similar to that for total exports. However, Korea has alarge gain in Japan, in contrast to Taiwan and Singapore, which lose shares; the latter two also lose in the US. Thailand is a big gainer in Japan while Indonesia and the Philippines lose out in the US. Low technology products: China’s massive market share gains are again concentrated in Japan. The four mature Tigers generally suffer losses in market share, but Singapore sees an increase in Japanese market share. The best overall performance among the new Tigers is by Indonesia.Medium technology products: While the Chinese pattern of success recurs, the new Tigers make significant gains in Japan and Korea incurs a significant loss. Taiwan and Singapore suffer losses in the US market. High technology exports: Taiwan again diverges from Korea in its performance in Japan, the former showing the second largest gain in the group (after China) and the latter the largest loss. In the US market, the situation is reversed, with Singapore joining Taiwan in losing market shares. Among the new Tigers, Malaysia and the Philippines are the big gainers in Japan, but the other two also benefit significantly. The Philippines is the second largest winner in the group in the US market. In sum, China’s main market share gains in the developed world are concentrated in Japan (though the US accounts for a larger dollar value of export growth). This is also true of its neighbors with the exceptions of Korea and Indonesia (Hong Kong was an all-round loser). To the extent that we can interpret market share changes to be causally related to China’s export surge, it would seem that the mature Tigers suffered the most from Chinese competition. The largest such loss is in low technology products, which is to be expected, but this not take into account the growth of LT exports by Korea and Taiwan to China. The relatively low gains by the lower-income new Tigers in LT may also reflect the impact of Chinese competition – without the offsetting increase in exports of intermediates to China.ConclusionsChina’s export surge has raised grave concerns in the region. While some of the apocalyptic predictions may have been overdone, it is certainly possible that rapid export growth by such a massive entrant will adversely affects export growth in its neighbors. As this analysis shows,however, the outcome is complex.For a start, the rise in China’s exports is matched by that in its imports – within the region its import growth outpaces its export growth. With appropriate restructuring of activities to match new competitive needs, its neighbors should be able to maintain high rates of export growth.There are two main drivers of regional exports to China. The first is to meet its burgeoning demand for imported products: primary products and resource-based manufactures that it cannot produce capital goods and intermediates for domestic -oriented production and more sophisticated consumer goods than its industry can currently provide. The second is to meet the needs of its export industries. This has two components: ‘processing’ activity in special economic zones that use imported inputs for export activities, and other exporters that also need imports. Processing activity is increasingly organized as part of integrated production systems, particularly its high technology segments, though some domestic oriented industries are also being plugged into this system as they realize scale and learning economies and become globally competitive. Both drivers are likely to continue into the foreseeable future, though their composition will change as Chinese and regional capabilities develop.中国竞争力的表现：是对东亚制成品出口的威胁吗？越来越多的东南亚和东亚地区关注中国出口的迅速增长所带来的竞争威胁，中国加入WTO后，更加剧了这种情况。
国际经济与贸易外文翻译外文文献英文文献.docx
国际经济与贸易外文翻译外文文献英文文献.docx外文文献翻译The effects of subjective norms on behaviour in the theory of planned behaviour: A meta-analysisMark Manning*University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts, USAA meta-analysis investigated the effects of perceived injunctive (IN) and descriptive (DN) norms on behaviour (BEH) within the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) in a sample of 196 studies. Two related correlation matrices (pairwise and listwise) were synthesized from the data and used to model the TPB relations with path analyses.Convergent evidence indicated that the relation between DN and BEH was stronger than the relation between IN and BEH. Evidence also suggested a significant direct relation between DN and BEH in the context of TPB. A suppressor effect of IN on DN in its relation with BEH was also noted? Moderator analyses indicated that the DN-BEH relation was stronger when there was more time between measures of cognition and behaviour, when behaviours were not socially approved, more socially motive and more pleasant: results were mixed in the case of the IN-BEH relation. Results imply that IN and DN are conceptually different constructs?As social beings, normative pressure inevitably affects our behaviour?Social nonns influence the way we dress, how we vote, what we buy, and a host of other behavioural decisions.Social psychologists have been exploring the influence of social norms on behaviour for decades? From AschM and Milgram s conformity- experiments (Asch, 19S6;Milgram, Bickman, & Berkowitz, 1969) through recent work by Cialdini andcolleagues(Cialdini, Reno. & Kallgren, 1990; Reno, Cialdini, & Kallgren, 1993), a substantial body of evidence has demonstrated that people conform to the judgments and behaviours of others.In experiments conducted by Cialdini and his colleagues (Cialdini et al., 1990; Reno et al., 1993), participants inferred behavioural norms for littering from environmental cues and acted in accord with these norms. The results highlight the fact that perceptions of norms, ratber than actual norms, can affect behaviour? Tlie relation between perceived norms and behaviour has receivedmuch empirical support (Borsari & Carey, 2003; Campo, Brossard. Fnizer. Marchell, Lewis, & Talbot, 2003; Gomberg, Schneider, & Dejong, 2(K)I; Grube, Morgan, & MeGree, 1986; Okun, Karoly, & Lutz,2002; Riniai & Real. 2005). However, one ofthc most influential models for predicting behaviour, the thcor>*of planned behaviour (TPB; Ajzcn, 1991), posits that rather than a direct relation between norm and behaviour, perceived nortns influence behaviour indirectly by way of behavioural intentions. Investigating the perceived norm-behaviour relation in tlic context of this theory offers insight not only into the strength of the relation, but also into the extent to which perceived norms may directly influence behaviour counter to theoretical expectations.The present study used mcta-analytic path analyses to examine, the relation between two types of perceived norms (injunctive (IN) and descriptive (DN) norms; described below) and behaviour in the context of the TPB (Ajzcn. 1991). The investigation explored the direct effects of IN and DN on behaviour as well as factors that may moderate the effect of subjective norms (SN) on behaviour?The theory of planned behaviourAccording to the TPB, the immediate antecedent of behaviour is the intention to pertbrm the behaviour (Figure 1). This behavioural intention is in turn a function of three major determinants: attitude towards the behaviour, perceived SN pertaining to the behaviour, and perceived degree of control over engaging in and ctJmpleting the behaviour (perceived behavioural control).The formation of attitudes (ATT), SN and perceived behavioural control (PBC) are respectively functions of behavioural beliefs, normative beliefs and control beliefs that a person holds with regards to the behaviour? Concerning ATT, the set of accessible beliefs that a person holds about the outcome of a behaviour will determine the evaluation of the behaviour, and thus influence the strength and direction of the ATT towards the behaviour.SN are a function of the normative beliefs that people relevant to the individual are perceived as having towards tbe behaviour coupled with the motivation of the individual to comply with the expected notins of these relevant persons? PBC is a function of the perceived factors that will influence the ability to engage in the behaviour coupled with the perception as to whether or not these factors will be present.In short, the TPB holds that favourable ATT, SN. And perceptions of control will lead to favourable intentions to engage in a given behaviour. Actual control over engaging in the behaviouris itself an important determinant? To the extent that individuals realistically appraise the amount of control that they have over the behaviour, the measure of PBC; can serve as a proxy for actual control. Perceived control is expected to have amoderating effect such that intentions will be reflected in actual behaviour to the extent that perceived control is high.The TPB has been applied successfully to a wide range of behaviours accounting for a sizable amount of variance (Armitage & Ckmner, 2001: Bamberg, Ajzen, & Schmidt,2003; Hardeman. Johnston. Johnston, Bonetti, Wareham, & Kinmonth. 2002; Povey.Wellens, & Conner, 2001; Rise. Thompson. & Verplanken, 2003). Regarding the SN construct, the theory holds that the effect of SN on behaviour is fully mediated by behavioural intentions? In other words, SN are not expected to have a direct effect (DE)on behaviour but instead influetice behaviours indirectly through their effect on intentions.Descriptive and injunctive normsTwo types of SN can be distinguished. IN are social pressures to engage in a behaviour based on the perception of what other people want you to do whereas DN are social pressures based on the observed or inferred behaviour of others? Tliis distinction has been empirically supported (Cialdini et al .,1990; Deutsch & Gerard.1955; Grube et al., 1986; Larimer & Neighbours, 2005; Larimer. Turner, Mallett. & Geisner, 2004; Reno et al.,1993; Rhodes & Courneya, 2003; White, Terry, & Hogg, 1994). Within the TPB, the SN construct was originally conceptualized as an injunctive norm (Ajzen, 1991). More recently, however, Ajzen and Fishbein (200S) have recommended including both types of normative measures in constructing planned behaviour stirveys? DN and IN will therefore be considered separately in the analyses to follow. Subjective norms-behaviour relationIn reviewing the SN construct in the planned behaviour context, Conner and Armitage(1998) have noted the lack of predictive power of the IN construct when predicting intention.Due to the paucity- of studies including DN in the planned behaviour context,conclusions regarding DN in this context are sparser. Recently, several investigators have included DN as predictors of intentions in the planned behaviour model (PBM;Fekadu &Kraft, 2002; MCiMUlan & Conner, 2(K)3; Okun et al.. 2002: Sheeran & Orbell, 1999b). Rivis and Sbeeran (2003) conducted a meta-analysis of DN in the planned behaviour context. Their analysis, based on 18 studies, demonstrated a significant relationship between DN and intention when controlling for otlier variables in the TPB.In that, these previous studies have investigated theeffects of SN on intentions, to date,no planned behaviour mcta-ana lysis has explored the potential for differences in the effects of SN on behaviour in the planned behaviour context.Deutsch and Gerard (1955) have suggested that DN and IN refer to different sources of motivation. Regarding DN, it has been shown that perceptions of behaviours of others lead one to behave in similar manners (Asch, 1956;Milgram et al., 1969). Descriptive normative information functions as a heuristic with regards to behavioural decisions offering cues as to what is appropriate behaviour iii a given situation (Cialdini et al., 1990; van Knippenberg, 2000). IN on the other iiand operate more through the role of motivation to comply with social sanctions (Ajzen, 1991;Lapinski & Rimal, 2005). To the extent that individuals are motivated to comply with perceived behavioural expectations of relevant referents, they avoid social sanctions?Though several studies have looked at the effect of one or botli types of norms on particular behaviours, there has yet to be a single meta-analytical review that compares the relationshipbetween the two types of norms and behaviours across a spectrum of behaviours. Consequently, on a general level it is unknown whether one type of norm has a stronger effect on behaviour than the other it may be hypothesized that DN have a stronger effect on behaviour than IN because DN are activated in the immediate behavioural situation. Furthermore, processing of DN for behavioural decisions may require less cognitive effort relative to the processing of IN, in that DN may rely more on heuristic than systematic informatioprocessing?Perhaps, this advantage contributes to efficient behavioural decision?making in line with descriptive normative information. In fact, researchers have shown that conditions that facilitate the use of heuristic information-processing lead participants to act more in line with DN (Hertel, Neuhof, Theucr, & Kerr, 2000). It is expected therefore, that DN will have a stronger effect on behaviour relative to IN.Direct effect ofSN on behaviourThe TPB posits that the relationship between SN and behaviour is fully mediated by behavioural intentions (Ajzen, 1991; Ajzen & Fishbein, 1973)? However, a number of planned behaviour studies that have included normative constructs as a behavioural predictor have found direct effects of SN on behaviour (Christian & Abrams, 2004 -Study 2; Christian & Arm 让age, 2002; Christian, Armitage, & Abrams, 2003; Okun et al.,2002; Trafimow & Finlay, 2001). In most research with the TPB, the effect of the normative component on intentions has received most attention (Armitage & Conner,2001; Rivis & Sheeran, 2003) while the potential for a DE of SN onbehaviour has received little empirical or meta-analytical scrutiny.One reason to explore, the potential for a DE may be the hypothetical nature under which most people report cognitionspertaining to behaviour in planned behaviour studies? Hypothetical contexts may not accurately reflect the relations between cognitions and behaviours that are evident in real behavioural contexts (Ajzen, Brown, & Carvajal, 2004). Furthermore, when an individual reports an intention to engage in a particular behaviour in one instance, that behavioural intention may be subject to change from the instance it is formed to the moment when an opportunity for behavioural engagement arises (Ajzen, 1991).For example, in the classic linn (1965) study, hotel managers expressed little intent to allow Chinese couples to stay in their hotels, however allowed them to do so when the instance arose? It is less likely that perceptions of norms related to the behaviour will change over time. Consequently, there is the potential for reported normative perceptions to have stronger relations with behaviour compared with relations between reported behavioural intentions and behaviour. This may be reflected in the presence of a DE of SN on the particular behaviour. The present meta-analjtical synthesis provides the opportunity* to gauge the potential for a direct relation between SN and behaviour in the context of the TPB.Variation in the magnitude of the SN^ehaviour relationship The possibility of a DE of SN on behaviour within the TPB implies that there are two ways in which SN can affect behaviour. There can be the theoretically posited indirect effect on behaviour mediated through intentions, and there may be a DE on behaviour. The total effect therefore is the sum of these two effects? In accord with the prediction that DN have a stronger relation with behaviours compared to the IN-behaviour relation, it is expected that the total effect of DN on behaviour is greater than the total effect of IN on behaviour. In addition to predicteddifferences between DN and IN in their effects on behaviour, there is the potential for differences in the magnitude of the effect within each type of norm. Compatibility* between measures of cognition and behaviour and the time between measurement of cognitions and behaviour are expected to lead to differences in the magnitudes of the effects of SN on behaviour. Additionally, the potential moderating effect of three further variables will be explored;the level of social approval of the behaviour, the extent to which social motives underlie behaviour, and the extent to which a behaviour is uselial versus pleasant may all contribute to variance in the relationship between norms and behaviour.CompatibilityElements of a particular behaviour can be defined in terms of the behavioural target, the action involved in the behaviour, the context in which the behaviour is performed, and the time at wliich it is performed. The relationship between cognitive predictors of a particular behaviour and engagement in the behaviour will be stronger if behavioural elements and cognitive assessment of the behaviour are compatible (Ajzen, 1996; Ajzen & Fishbein. 1977). That is to say., for instance, that if an investigator would tike to pretlict someone's propensity* to exercise 3 days a week for half an hour, measures should assess cognitions regarding exercising 3 days a week for half an hour rather than cognitions to be healthy, or some other general cognition regarding exercise?Tenned the ”principle of compatibility0, it holds that measurements of planned behaviour variables must be compatible with the target behaviour in terms of target, action, context, and time. Given the effect of compatibility and the magnitude of the correlations betweenplanned behaviour variables and behavioural measures, it is expected that studies where the cognitive and behavioural measures are fully compatible will feature stronger relations between SN and behaviour. It is also expected that among studies where measures are more compatible, the intention mediated relation between SN and behaviour will be stronger than any unmediated relation, in line with theoretical dictates, whereas among studies that are less compatible there will potentially be greater direct effects of SN on behaviour.Time interval between measures of SN and behaviourAccording to Ajzen ( 1991 ). cognitive precursors of behaviour that are measured closer to the target behaviour should be more predictive of behavioural engagement. Due to motivational considerations, measures of the intention to engage in a particular behaviour will vary as a function of proximity to behavioural engagement (Bandura & Schunk. 1981; Kamiol & Ross, 1996; Steel & Konig, 2006) in that tlie ftirther in the future is the potential behavioural engagement, the less predictive are intentions to engage in this behaviour. As Ibe relation between stated intentions and actual behaviour decreases over time, the potential exists for SN to be relatively more predictive of behaviour. This potential is evident in light of the argument outlined above wherein SN pertaining to a behaviour are less likely to change over time compared to behavioural intentions. As such, it is expected that as the time between measurement of cognitions and behaviour increases, SN will be reflected to a greater extent in actual behaviour.Furthermore, as the relation between intentions and behaviour diminishes, it is likely that the DE of SN on behaviour will be stronger as more time passes between measures of cognition and behaviour.。
国贸毕业外文文献及其翻译
China’s Competitive Performance: A Threat To East Asian Manufactured Exports?There is growing concern in Southeast and East Asia about the competitive threat posed by China’s burgeoning exports, exacerbated by its accession to the WTO. The threat is not confined to labor-intensive products but spans the whole technological and skill range. At the same time, China is rapidly raising its imports from the region, and it is not clear whether its burgeoning exports will damage its neighbors. We examine the dime nsions of China’s competitive threat in the 1990s, benchmarking competitive performance by technology and market, and finds that market share losses are so far mainly in low technology products, with Japan being the most vulnerable market. We analyze market share changes and highlight product groups that are directly or indirectly exposed to a competitive threat. We examine intra-regional trade and find that China and its neighbors are raising high technology exports in tandem: the nature of the international production systems involved lead to complementarily rather than confrontation. China is thus acting as an engine of export growth for its neighbors in terms of direct trade. However, this will change as China moves up the value chain and takes on the activities that have driven East Asian export growth.IntroductionConcern about China’s competitive threat is widespread (in developed economies like US as well as developing ones like Mexico), but is strongest in East and Southeast Asia. China’s burgeoning exports–backed by cheap and productive labor, a large stock of technical manpower, huge and diversified industrial sector, attractiveness to foreign investors, pragmatic use of industrial policy, and, now, freer access to world markets under WTO – lead to apocalyptic visions of export losses.2 China is most threatening to neighbors that rely primarily on low wages for their export advantage. However, as it upgrades its export structure, the more advanced economies (Singapore, Hong Kong, Korea and Taiwan) also fear for their competitiveness. The current hollowing out of their low-end manufacturing may soon extend to complex production, design, development and related services. Domestic markets are also threatened by China, but so far most attention seems to have been on exports.Offsetting this threat are the promise of the giant Chinese market (WTOaccession is only one of several initiatives to liberalize regional trade) and the potential for collaboration with it in exporting to the rest of the world. Trade within the East Asian region is flourishing. China is a growing importer from the region of natural resources that it does not possess. It is also raisin g imports of manufactured products. Its advanced neighbors are selling it sophisticated consumer and producer goods, and using it as a base for processing exports to third countries. The multinational companies (MNCs) that now account for around half of Chinese exports (and far more of its high technology exports, UNCTAD,2002) are incorporating China into production systems spanning the region (‘fragmentation’ and‘segmentation’ are used to describe this phenomenon3), so promoting considerable intra-firm trade with other regional bases. China’s own enterprises are likely to specialize with respect to reg ional counterparts and so raise intra-industry trade in differentiated products. Perhaps worryingly for competitors in other regions, such integration can lead China to complement regional competitiveness as a whole, rather than substitute its exports for those of its neighbors.It is difficult to assess, however, whether complementarily between China and the regional economies will fully offset its competitive threat. The dynamics and complexity of the interactions make it impossible to quantify the outcome, even to predict broad directions. The basic issue is whether China’s higher wage neighbors can move into more advanced export activities or functions rapidly enough to permit continued export expansion. If they can, they can continue with export-led growth. If they cannot, they will suffer export deceleration and/or a shift in specialization towards primary products or slow-growing segments of manufactured exports. The outcome, in other words, will depend on the relative growth of technological and other capabilities in Chinese and regional enterprises, with the former having such advantages as lower wages, larger scale economies, greater industrial depth, pools of technical skill and a proactive government. However, as East Asian countries differ widely in these factors (Lall, 2001), they face different kinds and intensity of competitive threat. The nature of the threat depends, moreover, on the organization of the production and marketing system: independent local firms are likely to compete more directl y than affiliates of thesame MNC spread over different countries in an integrated system.This paper does not try to measure China’s competitive threat or its effects, but to map relative export performance in the 1990s by technology and destination and so assess where the threat appears most intense. We focus on major East Asian exporters5 and on exports to third markets, but we also analyses complementarities between China and East Asia, particularly in electronics, the region’s largest export and the one where MNC systems dominate. As the 1990s predate China’s WTO accession, we do not go into the implications of this accession; however, the analysis of competitive trends has implications for the evolution of future trade by the region as liberalization grows.Background on Chinese export performanceChinese manufactured exports grew by 16.9% per annum over 1990-2000, compared to 6.4% for the world, 12.0% for all developing countries and 10.3% for the rest of East Asia. Its share of world manufactured exports rose from 1.7% to 4.4% over the decade and continued rising rapidly. 6 Thus, by 2002 China accounted for 5.1% of world merchandise exports; it was then the fifth largest exporter (after USA, Germany, Japan and France, and ahead of the UK). China’s share of developing world manufactured exports rose from 11% to 20% over the 1990s and of the East Asian region excluding China from 18.7% to 41.8%. Its export gains (see below) spanned the entire technological spectrum, and were most dynamic in the complex end of the range, in products that have recently driven the export growth of the rest of East Asia.This export surge is likely to be sustained for some time to come. China has ‘spare capacity’ in that its per capita exports are still relatively small,7 wages are much lower than in its main neighbors and it has large reserves of cheap and disciplined labor (though drawing it into exports will involve the cost of building links with the interior).8 More importantly, its advantages are not static (confined to cheap labor); they are upgrading rapidly. China is investing heavily in technology and advanced skills; for example, the share of the relevant age group enrolled in tertiary education rose from 9 percent in 1997 to 13 percent in 2000 (UNESCO website). It is exploiting the scale offered by its giant market to become competitive in capital-intensive activities beyond the reach of manyneighbors. It is using its diverse industrial base to deepen local content. It is drawing in export-oriented FDI at an impressive rate, using its market attractions to induce investors to raise local R&D and linkages; till now it has been able to impose performance requirements of the type soon to be banned under WTO rules.WTO accession may constrain China’s ability to use indust rial policy (Nolan, 2001) but it will also open up new export opportunities, particularly in textiles and garments.9 Accession may also enhance its domestic competitiveness: it will improve the investment climate for FDI, make imported inputs cheaper (for enterprises outside special export regimes) and induce faster restructuring of domestic enterprises (Ianchovichinaetal, 2003, and Lemoyne and Unal-Kesenci, 2002).Market share changes in major developed country marketsWe analyze market shares of China and its neighbors in three major markets: Japan, the US and West Europe, according to technology categories (Annex Table 1). In terms of value, the most important market for China in 2000 is the US ($49 billion), followed by Japan ($36 billion) and West Europe ($38 billion). However, the rest of the world is almost as large a destination for Chinese exports as these together ($106 billion in 2000) and within this the rest of East Asia is larger than any major OECD market by itself ($74.6 billion).The competitive position of each country can be analyzed in terms of the market share in 1990 and 2000 and the change over the decade. The annex table shows the following:Total manufactured exports: China does best in Japan, followed at some distance by the US. In common with most neighbors, its market share gain is weakest in West Europe. Korea loses market shares in both Japan and US, while Taiwan loses only in the US. Hong Kong’s loses market shares in all markets, particularly in the US and Japan. Like Taiwan, Singapore loses only in the US. The new Tigers gain share in all markets. With the exception of Indonesia, with a rather tepid performance, the others all gain most share in the Japanese market. Resource based products: China again leads the region in terms of market share increases, with a pattern similar to that for total exports. However, Korea has alarge gain in Japan, in contrast to Taiwan and Singapore, which lose shares; the latter two also lose in the US. Thailand is a big gainer in Japan while Indonesia and the Philippines lose out in the US. Low technology products: China’s massive market share gains are again concentrated in Japan. The four mature Tigers generally suffer losses in market share, but Singapore sees an increase in Japanese market share. The best overall performance among the new Tigers is by Indonesia.Medium technology products: While the Chinese pattern of success recurs, the new Tigers make significant gains in Japan and Korea incurs a significant loss. Taiwan and Singapore suffer losses in the US market. High technology exports: Taiwan again diverges from Korea in its performance in Japan, the former showing the second largest gain in the group (after China) and the latter the largest loss. In the US market, the situation is reversed, with Singapore joining Taiwan in losing market shares. Among the new Tigers, Malaysia and the Philippines are the big gainers in Japan, but the other two also benefit significantly. The Philippines is the second largest winner in the group in the US market. In sum, China’s main market share gains in the developed world are concentrated in Japan (though the US accounts for a larger dollar value of export growth). This is also true of its neighbors with the exceptions of Korea and Indonesia (Hong Kong was an all-round loser). To the extent that we can interpret market share changes to be causally related to China’s export surge, it would seem that the mature Tigers suffered the most from Chinese competition. The largest such loss is in low technology products, which is to be expected, but this not take into account the growth of LT exports by Korea and Taiwan to China. The relatively low gains by the lower-income new Tigers in LT may also reflect the impact of Chinese competition – without the offsetting increase in exports of intermediates to China.ConclusionsChina’s export surge has raised grave concerns in the region. While some of the apocalyptic predictions may have been overdone, it is certainly possible that rapid export growth by such a massive entrant will adversely affects export growth in its neighbors. As this analysis shows,however, the outcome is complex.For a start, the rise in China’s exports is matched by that in its imports – within the region its import growth outpaces its export growth. With appropriate restructuring of activities to match new competitive needs, its neighbors should be able to maintain high rates of export growth.There are two main drivers of regional exports to China. The first is to meet its burgeoning demand for imported products: primary products and resource-based manufactures that it cannot produce capital goods and intermediates for domestic -oriented production and more sophisticated consumer goods than its industry can currently provide. The second is to meet the needs of its export industries. This has two components: ‘processing’ activity in special economic zones that use imported inputs for export activities, and other exporters that also need imports. Processing activity is increasingly organized as part of integrated production systems, particularly its high technology segments, though some domestic oriented industries are also being plugged into this system as they realize scale and learning economies and become globally competitive. Both drivers are likely to continue into the foreseeable future, though their composition will change as Chinese and regional capabilities develop.中国竞争力的表现：是对东亚制成品出口的威胁吗？越来越多的东南亚和东亚地区关注中国出口的迅速增长所带来的竞争威胁，中国加入WTO后，更加剧了这种情况。
国贸专业外文文献翻译
外文文献原稿和译文原稿Introduction2010,Risks in Global MarketWhere there’s an opportunity,there’s a risk.Traders always face risks in any market,from the richest countries to the least developed economies. And as the global economic crisis changed markets,some risks for international trades might have been unveiled or worsened.The risks,which derive from the diversity and vicissitude of market structures,jurisdictions,commerce rules, cultures,languages,and even psychosociological factors,may exist in any sector and stage of the trade process,such as destination marketing,customs clearance,financial support,debts and solvencies,and adherence to WTO rules.A report by the Ministry of Commerce of China specified the risks of investing and doing business in many countries.Zhou Mi,an expert on the research panel,argued that the global market is undergoing a wave of restructuring and rebalancing because consumption in developed countries has waned and the emerging economies will accordingly wield greater influence in the world economy.The newest updates of this report will reveal more specifics, and some of them are listed here in advance.A senior manager from Ernst& Young analyzes the effect that corporate reshaping could have on customs clearance.China Export&Credit Insurance Corporation evaluates the risk factors in the financial systems and debt structures of some important markets.An expert from China’s Economic Diplomacy defines some risks created by WTO rules and offers advice on how to handle the risks.译文介绍2010年，在全球市场的风险那里是一个机会，还有一个风险。
国贸专业 外文翻译 外文文献 英文文献 不对外国企业抱任何敌意
原稿IntroductionITC: Not foreign enterprises hold any hostility- Vice-Chairman of the U.S. International Trade Commission(ITC)Deanna Tanner, Okun InterviewForeign Tade：For Chinese companies, the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) is still relatively unknown. Economic and trade fields, known for Chinese enterprises, the Ministry of Commerce. ITC What are the differences in their functions? Deanna Tanner Okun：States International Trade Commission (ITC) is a set up by Congress, quasi-judicial federal agency with extensive powers to deal with trade-related issues.In the U.S., has the power institutions dealing with trade-related matters in addition to the ITC the U.S. Commerce Department. Perform their duties in the course of the investigation of the anti-dumping and intellectual property rights infringement, the display can.In economy and trade, specifically, the duties of the U.S. Department of Commerce finds that constitute dumping and dumping margin, ITC is mainly survey dumping to the detriment of domestic firms in the United States. In addition .ITC is a quasi-judicial body, independent of the Government, specialized agencies, and trade for the U.S. government to provide advice and statistics. To take measures to maintain the general market relations in the United States for unfair trade practices.That is, the ITC's main functions include three parts. Management of U.S. trade remedy laws fair and objective manner; tariffs, international trade and competition issues to the President, the United States Trade Representative (USTR) and Congress to provide independent, high-quality information and support; maintaining the U.S. Harmonized Tariff Schedule. Based on the above-mentioned functions .ITC six members designated by the President and the Senate recognized the addition was designated to fill the unexpired vacancy, the appointment term of nine years. The term of office by the Constitution, theprovisions of the staggered calculated. Every 18 months, have different members have retired. Members of the office for more than five years may not again be specified. No more than three members from the same political party. Chairman and Vice-Chairman appointed by the president for a term of the statutory two years. The President shall not former President from the same political party. The President shall appoint two members from the same political party as Chair and Vice-Chairman.Foreign Tade：Then, the ITC is how to perform its functions for national service? Deanna Tanner Okun：ITC are five ways to carry out its functions to serve the country: - Import injury investigation, including determining the import of some kind of unfair trade (anti-dumping or countervailing duty investigations) and the increase in imports (global and bilateral security measures for the investigation) to cause damage or a threat of material injury to U.S. industry.- IP-related imports of investigation, including the guide to sex, to obey the president's objections against certain unfair practices in the import trade, such as patent or trademark infringement.- Investigation procedures, including an objective analysis of the major trade-related issues; to predict the economic impact of trade agreements; analysis of the specific competition in the industry, and to find within the industry and external economic factors that affect the industry competitive.- Trade information services to the ITC, Congress and the implementing agencies and the public delivery of reliable and timely information and analysis of data through this service. - Trade policy support .ITC staff to provide direct technical support to the USTR, Congressional committees, inter-departmental committee, and the U.S. delegation in multilateral trade organizations such as the World Trade Organization (WTO). Authorization based on field surveys .ITC to exercise the powers of the extensive investigation of trade-related issues.The right to exercise judgment, the ITC to make a decision in respect of certain unfair trade practices. Through research .ITC also become the source of a national trade data collectionand analysis, and information and analysis available to the implementing agencies and Congress to help them to specify and develop U.S. trade policy.Foreign Tade：Articles understand, import injury investigation, anti-dumping / countervailing duty investigations. The five-year (sunset) review of global security measures to investigate, and IP-related imports investigation the ITC often conducted several major investigations. Could you talk about the difference between them?Deanna Tanner Okun：Import Injury Investigation: ITC reserves the right to decide based on whether the U.S. trade law imported products cause damage to related industries for the United States, or a threat of injury. ITC's injury investigation into the 13 anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations .And in accordance with Chapter VII of the 1930 Tariff Act five-year (sunset) review; global security measures under the 1974 Trade Act (Disclaimer), Chinese security measures market disruption investigation; According to the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement(NAFTA), bilateral security measures to investigate the implementation of Act 302; and a survey conducted in accordance with section 22 of the agricultural Adjustment Act.Members according to the facts recorded in the relevant legal requirements and each survey to survey into El damage a decision on its view into El damage survey announced. And subject to judicial review.In each investigation, the ITC and investigation team (including an oversight investigator of an investigator, an accountant or auditor. An economist, a business analyst and a lawyer) produced a complete the survey of the domestic industry competitive market conditions report .Committee members and the research team using a variety of fact gathering techniques, including (but are not limited to) industry-specific questionnaires, telephone interviews, factory visits, technical and market experts advice, statements by the parties, the public hearing, and to review the industry and market literature.In each survey, the survey team to collect and analyze a wide range of data, then an objective and comprehensive report submitted to the ITC. The data in the report include (but are not limited to) industry production capacity, actual production, capacity utilization,domestic El goods, stocks, imports, the United States and foreign supplier by the share of U.S. market share, labor conditions, working hours, productivity, wages, paid total compensation, unit labor cost, pricing, distribution channels, and related industries in the United States financial data .Some foreign production of related products industry data collection and analysis.ITC members and officials of the U.S. Department of Commerce, the U.S. customs service, survey clients and their lawyers, the person in charge of the U.S. production company, importer, product buyers such as working together in the course of the investigation into El damage. In addition, members of Congress often through the hearing participating damage to their views and perspectives to the survey report. In 2003.Members of Congress on the importation matters related to the investigation of l damage appeared 51 times in the ITC. Second, the anti-dumping / countervailing duty investigations and five-year (sunset) review: 1930 under Chapter VII of the Tariff Act of the U.S. industry in the U.S. market at less than fair value into 13 sales (dumping) or benefit from foreign government subsidies (subsidies) to request the Government for relief .Dumping and subsidies are considered to be unfair trade practices.Under the law, the U.S. Department of Commerce decided to dump or subsidies exist, if it exists, the amount of dumping and subsidies. ITC decided to dumping or subsidies for imported products is the U.S. industry to cause substantial damage or substantial damage to the threat. If the two bodies on their respective problems have to give a positive final ruling, the Commerce Department will dump released the command of anti-dumping duty order or subsidies countervailing duties. In the five years after the promulgation of the Commerce Department should cancel the anti-dumping or countervailing duty imposed order .Or termination of the moratorium, unless the Commerce Department that the elimination of tariffs imposed order or termination of the moratorium could lead to the continuation or resumption of dumping or subsidies .ITC at the same time that the elimination of tariffs imposed order or termination of dumping or subsidies to suspend the agreement in the reasonably foreseeable period of time is likely to continue or start again.In 2003.41 under Chapter VII of the request is put forward .Most of which are dumping (41, 35). These requests include a wide range of products, Such as malleable iron pipe fittings, memory, memory module, refined brown aluminum oxide, ceramic radio cylindrical insulator, prestressed cement Wire Rope, fluorescent pale rust inhibitors, water magnetic cut-outs, Color television receivers, Wax / resin transfer zone, Ethylene retail bag, Trahydrofurfuryl alcohol ,Hot coat hanger, Electrolytic manganese dioxide, Transparent rectangular tube. ITC has also completed a 2002 'cases.Third, the global security measures survey: According to the 1974 Trade Act 201, imported products cause serious harm or serious threat of injury, the domestic industry can be brought to the ITC to reduce imports.201 did not like the anti-dumping / countervailing duty provisions of the Tariff Act, as the requirements to identify the existence of unfair trade behavior. If the ITC 201 investigation, a positive decision, it will recommend to the President to reduce imports to compensate for the damage, easy to adjust the domestic industry against import competition .The president ultimately decide whether the magnitude of the relief, and relief.Among them, 2003, the ITC proposed three measures against China. They include steel pipe hangers, brake drums and rotary axis, and an extension of the iron sprinklers. These are based on U.S. China Relations Act 2000 will be 421 to join the Trade Act of 1974.The simultaneous implementation of China's accession to the terms of the bilateral security measures for the Sino-US agreement in the WTO transition period, it is also known as safety measures investigation. According to the terms of the ITC found that imports to the United States, China products reach the number listed to increase or cause or threat of market disruption related and similar competitive products to meet the conditions set out, domestic producers get relief .Global security measures to investigate, if the ITC to make a positive decision, it will propose to the President relief proposal .The President made a final decision on whether to provide relief to the American industry, if provided, determine the types and duration of relief.Fourth, intellectual property-related imports investigation: According to the 1930 Tariff Act 337, the ITC conducted a survey of some of the inequitable conduct raised the import trade.The majority of complaints under the clause amounts patent or trademark infringement cases.Foreign Tade：In recent years .Chinese enterprises in the United States repeatedly subjected to anti-dumping and intellectual property investigations, whether to talk with Chinese enterprises, the investigation?Deanna Tanner Okun：The 337 program surveys typically include complex factual and legal decisions. In 2003.ITC has proposed three measures against China: Meanwhile, the number of 337 investigations is increasing and has started 111 investigations, 42 involve the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong, Only in 2005 to the present .Initiate an investigation of 11 in the five involved in the Chinese Mainland and Hong Kong; Types of 337 procedures to investigate products and intellectual property very extensive. About 41 from the 2003 survey of 337 procedures a third of it comes to high-tech products in the field, especially in the field of computers and communications, such as high-speed wireless LAN system, For storage .Management and data protection hardware and software systems, recordable and rewritable disc, a variety of memory core Sheets and related integrated circuit devices, and semiconductor mask works. Part of the investigation involving machinery, pharmaceutical, manufacturing microelectronic devices and equipment used for the transport and sorting parcels, the complex technology of the call device, such as garage door openers. In addition some of the year 337 investigation procedures involving bearings for industrial use, computer game systems, electronic education equipment, electronic security equipment as the facilities of toilet and kitchen wall, alkaline batteries, home vacuum packaging equipment, etc.. According to statistics, from 1998 to the present, 334 anti-dumping investigations, China accounted for 47 involving agricultural products, manufactured goods, and other fields.In 2003.A total of 41 cases of an ongoing investigation and associated procedures cases, from 21 in 2003.Only seven of the survey conducted in 2003 has nothing to do with thepatent infringement, one of which is due to the abuse of trade secrets and other non-patent unfair means, from trademarks and trade dress infringement and unfair to other non-patent means.Foreign Tade：Some people think that Section 337 violates the WTO rules on national treatment, how do you look at this issue?Deanna Tanner Okun：I can not answer this with political issues, but I personally think that 337 or more transparent,Its procedural framework is pretty fair, if there are errors, you can appeal to the courts to correct. In fact, in the 337 investigation has been launched, only 16% of the final decisionto constitute infringement, the ratio is not too high.Foreign Tade：It is reported that the U.S. domestic companies, drew ITC Section 337 investigations is no charge .Well, this may lead to sponsored enterprises due to the low cost and abuse complaint?Deanna Tanner Okun：Indeed, as you said, the ITC's investigation is no charge for no cost, but that does not mean to initiate enterprisesOr low cost. In the U.S., the fees of court litigation for $ 150, seemingly not high, attorney fees, however, is quite expensive .In fact, we found that the initiator of the cost of not less than the cost of the respondent to The same time, the abuse complaint by administrative law, therefore, generally will not abuse complaint behavior.Foreign Tade：ITC members have to vote if there are subjective factors?Work ITC how to avoid the subjective domestic trade protection tendency?Deanna Tanner Okun：In particular, I want to emphasize here is your question in the "external factors" .First, the prosecution of U.S. companies is their right, whether the respondent is also charged with enterprise rights .ITC did, just under the existing law to the specific investigation and ruling.Secondly, the ITC is an independent body on external factors does not exist, it asked all businesses to be assured, the ITC is a completely non-partisan, independent body.In theUnited States, the ITC is not affiliated with any administrative department of the United States.Foreign Tade：Specifically, China should be how to deal with anti-dumping and 337 investigations?Deanna Tanner Okun: This is why we came to China to highlight the one. I personally think that the Chinese enterprises, the first is to go out. Respond actively. Seize a 50% chance of success . The occasion of the investigation in the case of reconciliation is very large, for example, there have been three Chinese tractor companies as defendants .Which the two responding, and finally reached a settlement, only slightly changed the appearance of color on the line, so, the respondent is the first step is very important. Second is to take the correct and specific measures .I personally recommend that Chinese enterprises should apply for a patent to own the intellectual property rights, but also by way of thecross-license with each other to reach complementary and prosecution agreement, to prevent itself subject to appropriate investigation.In addition, the receipt of the initial questionnaire, the companies can find the appropriate lawyer to issue an infringement to prove, so that even losing in the final award as not to constitute malicious infringement of evidence, the loss will be much smaller.译文介绍ITC：不对外国企业抱任何敌意——美国国际贸易委员会(ITC)副主席Deanna Tanner Okun(迪安娜·蒂娜·奥昆)访谈Foreign Tade：对于中国企业来说，美国国际贸易委员会(ITC)还是比较陌生的。
国贸专业外文参考文献
Conference DraftTHE AVOCADO DISPUTE AND OTHER TECHNICAL BARRIERS TOAGRICULTURAL TRADE UNDER NAFTADavid Orden and Eduardo Romano*Recent attention to agricultural trade policy has turned to issues of technical barriers,particularly sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) regulations, that constrain movement of products across international borders. It is intuitive that there are public good arguments that make some SPS restrictions necessary to insure a safe food supply and protect domestic animal herds and plant stocks from pests and diseases. In other cases, regulations rationalized on technical grounds seem to lack firm scientific foundations and appear, at least to potential beneficiaries of expanded trade, to be imposed primarily to shield domestic producers from competition. That such controversies arise is not surprising. Their likelihood is suggested by the economic theory of regulation, sometimes referred to as “capture” theory. Applied to technical trade barriers, the theory suggests that when there is doubt about the merit of a technical restriction, domestic interest groups will often succeed in obtaining protective decisions from domestic regulatory agencies.Both NAFTA and the WTO address issues of SPS and other technical trade barriers.Under NAFTA, it was agreed that each country retains the right to adopt SPS measures to protect human, animal, and plant life and health, that each country has the right to establish appropriate levels of protection, and that SPS measures must be based on scientific evidence, be______________* Professor and graduate research assistant, respectively, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, Virginia 24061 (email: orden@). Invited paper presented at the conference on NAFTA and Agriculture: Is the Experiment Working, San Antonio, Texas, November 1996. We thank Donna Roberts and Suzanne Thornsbury for helpful comments.。
世界贸易和国际贸易外文文献及中文翻译
World Trade and International TradeIn today’s complex economic world, neither individuals nor nations are self-sufficient. Nations have utilized different economic resources; people have developed different skills. This is the foundation of world trade and economic activity. As a result of this trade and activity, international finance and banking have evolved.For example, the United States is a major consumer of coffee, yet it does not have the climate to grow any or its own. Consequently, the United States must import coffee from countries (such as Brazil, Colombia and Guatemala) that grow coffee efficiently. On the other hand, the United States has large industrial plants capable of producing a variety of goods, such as chemicals and airplanes, which can be sold to nations that need them. If nations traded item for item, such as one automobile for 10,000 bags of coffee, foreign trade would be extremely cumbersome and restrictive. So instead of batter, which is trade of goods without an exchange of money, the United State receives money in payment for what it sells. It pays for Brazilian coffee with dollars, which Brazil can then use to buy wool from Australia, which in turn can buy textiles Great Britain, which can then buy tobacco from the United State.Foreign trade, the exchange of goods between nations, takes place for many reasons. The first, as mentioned above is that no nation has all of the commodities that it needs. Raw materials are scattered around the world. Large deposits of copper are mined in Peru and Zaire, diamonds are mined in South Africa and petroleum is recovered in the Middle East. Countries that do not have these resources within their own boundaries must buy from countries that export them.Foreign trade also occurs because a country often does not have enough of a particular item to meet its needs. Although the United States is a major producer of sugar, it consumes more than it can produce internally and thus must import sugar.Third, one nation can sell some items at a lower cost than other countries. Japan has been able to export large quantities of radios and television sets because it can produce them more efficiently than other countries. It is cheaper for the United States to buy these from Japan than to produce them domestically. According to economic theory, Japan should produce and export those items from which it derives a comparative advantage. It should also buy and import what it needs from those countries that have a comparative advantage in the desired items.Finally, foreign trade takes place because of innovation or style. Even though the United States produces more automobiles than any other country, it still imports large numbers of autos from Germany, Japan and Sweden, primarily because there is a market for them in the United States.For most nations, exports and imports are the most important international activity. When nations export more than they import, they are said to have a favorable balance of trade. When they import more than they export, an unfavorable balance of trade exists. Nations try to maintain a favorable balance of trade, which assures them of the means to buy necessary imports.International trade is the exchange ofgoods and services produced in one country for goods and services produced in another country. There are several reasons for it.The distribution lf natural resources around the world is somewhat haphazard: some nations possess natural deposits in excess of their own requirements while other nations have none. For example, Britain has large reserves of coal but lacks many minerals such as nickel, copper, aluminum etc, whereas the Arab states have vast oil deposits but little else. In the cultivation of natural products climates whereas others, such as citrus fruits, require a Mediterranean climate. Moreover, some nations are unable to produce sufficient of a particular product to satisfy a large home demand, for example, Britain and wheat. These are the reasons why international trade first began.With the development of manufacturing and technology, there arose another incentive for nations to exchange their products. It was found that it made economic sense for a nation to specialize in certain activities and produce those goods for which it had the most advantages, and to exchange those goods for the products of other nations which and advantages in different fields. This trade is based on the principle of comparative advantage.The theory of comparative advantage, also called the comparative cost theory, was developed by David Ricardo, and other economists in the nineteenth century. It points out that trade between countries can be profitable for all, even if one of the countries can produce every commodity more cheaply. As long as there are minor, relative differences in the efficiency of producing a commodity even the poof country can have a comparative advantage in producing it. The paradox is best illustrated by this traditional example: the best lawyer in town is also the best typist in town. Since this lawyer cannot afford to give up precious time from legal and typing matters. But the typist’s comparative disadvantage is least in typing. Therefore, the typist has a relative comparative advantage in typing.This principle is the basis of specialization into trades and occupations. At the same time, complete specialization may never occur even when it is economically advantageous. For strategic or domestic reasons, a country may continue to produce goods for which it does not have an advantage. The benefits lf specialization may also be affecting by transport costs: goods and raw materials have to be transported around the world and the cost of the transport narrows the limits between which it will prove profitable to trade. Another impediment to the free flow of goods between nations is the possible introduction of artificial barriers to trade, such as tariffs or quotas.In addition to visible trade, which involves the import and export lf goods and merchandise, there is also invisible trade, which involves the exchange of services between nations.Nations such as Greece and Norway have large marine fleets and provide transportation service. This is a kind of invisible trade. When an exporter arranges shipment, he rents space in the cargo compartment or a ship.The prudent e xporter purchases insurance for his cargo’s voyage. While at sea, a cargo is vulnerable to many dangers. Thus, insurance is another service in which some nations specialize. Great Britain, becauseof the development of Lloyd’s of London, is a leading expor ter of this service, earning fees for insuring other nations’ foreign trade.Some nations possess little in the way of exporter commodities or manufactured goods, but they have a mild and sunny climate. During the winter, the Bahamas attract large numbers of countries, who spend money for hotel accommodations, meals, taxis, and so on. Tourism, therefore, is another form of invisible trade.Invisible trade can be as important to some nations as the export of raw materials or commodities is to other. In both cases, the nations as the export of raw materials or commodities is to other. In both cases, the nations earn money to buy necessities.International trade today little resembles European commerce as it existed between the 16th century and the 19th century. Trade in earlier times was conducted largely between a mother country and its colonies. It was conducted according to strict mercantilist principles. The colonies were supposed to supply the mother country with raw materials, and they were expected to buy all finished goods from the mother country. Other forms of trade were forbidden to the colonies, but many of them evaded these restrictions.A result of the Industrial Revolution, which began in England in the 18th century, was the transformation of trade from a colonial exchange into a many sided international institution. Cottage industries gave way to mass production in factories. Railroads and steamships lowered the cost of transportation at the same time that new markets were being sought for the expanding output of goods.The Industrial Revolution also brought an end to mercantilist policies. The laissez-faire attitudes that emerged in their stead permitted businessmen to manufacture what they pleased and to trade freely with other nations. Trade was also stimulated by the growth of banking facilities, insurance companies, and improved commercial shipping and communications.The repeal of the Corn Laws by Great Britain in 1846 ended Britain’s longstanding policy of protectionism. During the 19th century, many European nations made commercial agreements with each other easing their tariff rates. Lower tariffs and the growth of population and industry caused trade to soar in the 19th century.In the 20th century two world wars and a major depression caused severe disturbances in international trade. Nations, sensing a threat to their domestic economies, sought to protect themselves from further disturbances by erecting various barriers to trade.The situation became even worse after Great Britain abandoned the gold standard. The nations that were closely related to Britain, including most of the members of the Commonwealth of gold standard. As the means of making international payments broke down and trade restrictions increased, some countries had to resort to barter to obtain foreign goods.International trade was in such severe straits during the depression that a World Economic Conference was held in 1933. This conference, however, was unable to halt a rash of currency devaluations, tariff increases, and quota arrangements.In 1934, U.S. Secretary of State Cordell Hull persuaded Congress to pass the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act. This law authorized the President to negotiate tariff cuts with other nations. The Reciprocal Trade Act provided for protection of U.S. industries in the event foreign imports increased to such a degree that U.S. businesses were injured. This protection included peril point and escape clauses under which tariff cuts could by refused of rescinded if a U.S. industry suffered economic hardship. Despite the protectionist clauses in the act, U.S. tariffs were substantially reduced.Shortly before the end of World War Ⅱ, members of the United Nations met at Bratton Woods, N.H. to discuss ways of reducing the financial barriers to international trade. The International Monetary Fund was established as a result of the conference. The fund was designed to encourage the growth of international trade by stabilizing currencies and their rate of foreign exchange.In the early postwar period, more than 20 nations met in Geneva, Switzerland, to negotiate tariff reductions. When any two nations reached an agreement to reduce tariffs on a product, the benefits were extended to all participating nations. This was an application of the so-called most favored nation clause.The Geneva tariff agreements were written into the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). GATT also established standards for the conduct of international trade. Fox example, the agreement prohibits nations from placing quotas of limits on imports, except under very special circumstances.After World War Ⅱ a number of free trade areas were formed to solve trade problems on a regional basis. Tariffs on goods moving within these areas were to be abolished. Some of the groups also erected a single tariff on the goods of outsiders coming into their common area. Such groups are called customs unions. The goal of all trade blocs was to merge small political units into large geographic entities in which goods could be freely manufactured and sold. A large market area greatly stimulates economic growth and prosperity. These trade blocs are: Benelux, The European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC), the European Economic Community (EEC or Common Market), the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (COMECOM), the Latin American Free Trade Association (LAFTA), the Central American Common Market (CACM), the Caribbean Free Trade Area (CARIFTA), the Caribbean Community and Common Market (CARICOM).世界贸易和国际贸易在当今复杂的经济世界个人和国家都不是自给自足。
国贸外文文献翻译
外文文献翻译原文：FACTORS AFFECTING ONLINE PURCHASING BEHAVIORHamisah Haji Hasan & Prof. Samsudin A. RahimUniversiti Putra Malaysia & Universiti Kebangsaan MalaysiaAbstractThe study examined the relationship between consumer personality and cultural dimensions to that of purchasing behavior through cyber advertising. Krugman‟s Low Involvement theory and Hofstede‟s Cultural Dimensions were incorporated in the study. A survey was conducted in the Subang Jaya, Puchong and Kuala Lumpur area. The sample consisted of 504 respondents drawn from a simple random sampling. Spearman Correlation Coefficients was used to analyze the data. The study showed as suggested by Krugman‟s Low Involvement theory, high involvement products and attitude towards Internet contributed significantly to the purchasing behavior through cyber advertising. Thus indicating the Internet to be better suited for high involvement products and services as well as help increase the tendency to purchase products and services online.Similarly, the study also showed that the convenience dimension of the consumer personality variable formed a significant relationship with purchasing behavior through cyber advertising. Although Hofstede‟s Cultural Dimensions argued that cultural dimensions influences the adoption of innovations, yet results obtained from the study failed to support the theory as it was found that risk personality which represent the other dimension of the consumer personality and the cultural dimensions failed to support the hypotheses as observed in the non-significant relationships between the variables and the purchasing behavior through cyber advertising.Keywords: Internet, Hofstede Cultural Dimension, Krugman Low Involvment Theory, advertising, online purchasing behavior.The Internet Era: Cyber Advertising and Media PlanningThe development in the new media technologies that range from the Internet, interactive kiosks and CD-ROMS, to digital TV and radio are today ushering in a new era and have opened up new avenues for marketing communications. These new media are not only revolutionizing marketing and marketing communications but it has also influence consumers‟ behavior.The advent of the new technology namely the internet has tremendously altered the way consumers behave. The new media has not only offered consumers a better way to view products and services but also has helped created a better relationship between marketer and consumers. Thus, transforming them into a more sophisticated, well-informed and savvy buyers and as suggested by Arens (1999) consumers today are becoming “active controllers “of the messages they see and hear. Apparently, these past few years have also witnessed the rise and rapid growth in economic importance of a group of consumers whose attitudes, aspirations and purchasingpatterns are unlike any before them. Today, they are the new consumers. They are already a potent force in the developed world, and within the next decade will probably dominate consumption in all parts of the world. This new consumers with their distinctive style of consumption differs in their purchasing decisions from that of the old consumers.The Internet has affected the way the world do business by altering the basic business dynamics. The dynamics that have shaped economic practices since the early nineteenth century are being replaced by a new set of fundamental principle based on the new digital economy. The Internet has also helped increased global exposure for both businesses and consumers alike. Domestic companies expand internationally just by going online and investing in e-business. At the time consumers can also expand their shopping horizons by using the Internet to search for the best deals and expose themselves to e-retailers from around the globe.Obviously, the Internet has offer tremendous new opportunities to businesses regardless oftheir size. As a medium, it is equally accessible to both the large as well as the small operators. This has thus, resulted in local and international marketplace. The Internet is changing the way advertisers present, sell, and communicate with consumers. Today, a variety of practices are being used to reach consumers.译文：影响网上购物的因素Hamisah哈吉·哈桑教授及三苏丁A.拉希姆马来西亚博特拉大学和马来西亚国民大学摘要该研究通过网络购买行为验证消费者的个性和文化维度之间的关系。
国际贸易理论外文翻译文献
国际贸易理论外文翻译文献(文档含英文原文和中文翻译)新制度主义与新贸易理论：反思比较优势和贸易政策新制度主义与新贸易理论比较优势理论在国际贸易理论中一直占主导地位。
这一理论的主张，除了少数负面例子外，大多数国家的贸易都因此而变好。
虽然如此，这个理论也承认（斯托尔珀和萨缪尔森1941）贸易的收益因资本和劳动力份额的多少而变动，并且个体因素会带来更大的损失。
然而，失去的因素，原则上在贸易中仍然可以得到充分补偿。
虽然这些现象在实践中由于政治经济原因是很少发生的。
比较优势理论起到了促进自由贸易和全球化的中心作用。
虽然大多数专业经济学家都接受这个理论，但其中还有一些经济学家就充分就业的存在和市场能力对国家生产（帕利2003得）及全球配置理论的假设产生质疑。
制度经济学家也质疑其体制形式不很严密，特别是跨国公司及其复杂的对外合作对贸易格局的影响。
比较优势贸易理论中的批评也越来越多地夹杂在政治层面。
因此，更多的政治家和市民质疑贸易全球化到底能带来多大的利益。
特别是，越来越担心未来境外生产及外包很可能对人们的福利产生巨大影响。
本文探讨了当前戈莫里和鲍莫尔（2000）和萨缪尔森（2004）最近的工作 -GBS- 研究了这些问题。
特别是观点的一致性，本文着重在挖掘和澄清戈莫里以及鲍莫尔在经济问题上的分歧。
GBS在比较优势的均衡理论（尤其是萨缪尔森）在传统理论中占有优势，同时它还探讨了如何改变全球生产模式从而带来贸易收益分配的影响。
他们发现在全球化贸易中隐含着比传统贸易理论更多的东西。
GBS的研究结果也揭示了一些新古典贸易理论与贸易理论和制度主义融合的东西。
这种衔接工作表现在许多层面，从贸易的政策上来分析。
首先，贸易扩张未必是双赢的结果，系统和贸易的扩大可能造成单赢的结果。
第二，GBS的论点强调了国家与国家之间的技术转让和生产方法的交流，这些转让的背后隐含的现象对产品周期理论的链接是息息相关的。
三，规模收益递增（IRTS）发挥核心作用。
国际经济与贸易 外文翻译 外文文献 英文文献 .docx
外文文献翻译The effects of subjective norms on behaviour in the theory of planned behaviour: A meta-analysisMark Manning*University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts, USAA meta-analysis investigated the effects of perceived injunctive (IN) and descriptive (DN) norms on behaviour (BEH) within the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) in a sample of 196 studies. Two related correlation matrices (pairwise and listwise) were synthesized from the data and used to model the TPB relations with path analyses.Convergent evidence indicated that the relation between DN and BEH was stronger than the relation between IN and BEH. Evidence also suggested a significant direct relation between DN and BEH in the context of TPB. A suppressor effect of IN on DN in its relation with BEH was also noted・ Moderator analyses indicated that the DN-BEH relation was stronger when there was more time between measures of cognition and behaviour, when behaviours were not socially approved, more socially motive and more pleasant: results were mixed in the case of the IN-BEH relation. Results imply that IN and DN are conceptually different constructs・As social beings, normative pressure inevitably affects our behaviour・Social nonns influence the way we dress, how we vote, what we buy, and a host of other behavioural decisions.Social psychologists have been exploring the influence of social norms on behaviour for decades・ From AschM and Milgram s conformity- experiments (Asch, 19S6;Milgram, Bickman, & Berkowitz, 1969) through recent work by Cialdini and colleagues(Cialdini, Reno. & Kallgren, 1990; Reno, Cialdini, & Kallgren, 1993), a substantial body of evidence has demonstrated that people conform to the judgments and behaviours of others.In experiments conducted by Cialdini and his colleagues (Cialdini et al., 1990; Reno et al., 1993), participants inferred behavioural norms for littering from environmental cues and acted in accord with these norms. The results highlight the fact that perceptions of norms, ratber than actual norms, can affect behaviour・ Tlie relation between perceived norms and behaviour has receivedmuch empirical support (Borsari & Carey, 2003; Campo, Brossard. Fnizer. Marchell, Lewis, & Talbot, 2003; Gomberg, Schneider, & Dejong, 2(K)I; Grube, Morgan, & MeGree, 1986; Okun, Karoly, & Lutz,2002; Riniai & Real. 2005). However, one ofthc most influential models for predicting behaviour, the thcor>*of planned behaviour (TPB; Ajzcn, 1991), posits that rather than a direct relation between norm and behaviour, perceived nortns influence behaviour indirectly by way of behavioural intentions. Investigating the perceived norm-behaviour relation in tlic context of this theory offers insight not only into the strength of the relation, but also into the extent to which perceived norms may directly influence behaviour counter to theoretical expectations.The present study used mcta-analytic path analyses to examine, the relation between two types of perceived norms (injunctive (IN) and descriptive (DN) norms; described below) and behaviour in the context of the TPB (Ajzcn. 1991). The investigation explored the direct effects of IN and DN on behaviour as well as factors that may moderate the effect of subjective norms (SN) on behaviour・The theory of planned behaviourAccording to the TPB, the immediate antecedent of behaviour is the intention to pertbrm the behaviour (Figure 1). This behavioural intention is in turn a function of three major determinants: attitude towards the behaviour, perceived SN pertaining to the behaviour, and perceived degree of control over engaging in and ctJmpleting the behaviour (perceived behavioural control).The formation of attitudes (ATT), SN and perceived behavioural control (PBC) are respectively functions of behavioural beliefs, normative beliefs and control beliefs that a person holds with regards to the behaviour・ Concerning ATT, the set of accessible beliefs that a person holds about the outcome of a behaviour will determine the evaluation of the behaviour, and thus influence the strength and direction of the ATT towards the behaviour.SN are a function of the normative beliefs that people relevant to the individual are perceived as having towards tbe behaviour coupled with the motivation of the individual to comply with the expected notins of these relevant persons・ PBC is a function of the perceived factors that will influence the ability to engage in the behaviour coupled with the perception as to whether or not these factors will be present.In short, the TPB holds that favourable ATT, SN. And perceptions of control will lead to favourable intentions to engage in a given behaviour. Actual control over engaging in the behaviouris itself an important determinant・ To the extent that individuals realistically appraise the amount of control that they have over the behaviour, the measure of PBC; can serve as a proxy for actual control. Perceived control is expected to have a moderating effect such that intentions will be reflected in actual behaviour to the extent that perceived control is high.The TPB has been applied successfully to a wide range of behaviours accounting for a sizable amount of variance (Armitage & Ckmner, 2001: Bamberg, Ajzen, & Schmidt,2003; Hardeman. Johnston. Johnston, Bonetti, Wareham, & Kinmonth. 2002; Povey.Wellens, & Conner, 2001; Rise. Thompson. & Verplanken, 2003). Regarding the SN construct, the theory holds that the effect of SN on behaviour is fully mediated by behavioural intentions・ In other words, SN are not expected to have a direct effect (DE)on behaviour but instead influetice behaviours indirectly through their effect on intentions.Descriptive and injunctive normsTwo types of SN can be distinguished. IN are social pressures to engage in a behaviour based on the perception of what other people want you to do whereas DN are social pressures based on the observed or inferred behaviour of others・ Tliis distinction has been empirically supported (Cialdini et al .,1990; Deutsch & Gerard.1955; Grube et al., 1986; Larimer & Neighbours, 2005; Larimer. Turner, Mallett. & Geisner, 2004; Reno et al.,1993; Rhodes & Courneya, 2003; White, Terry, & Hogg, 1994). Within the TPB, the SN construct was originally conceptualized as an injunctive norm (Ajzen, 1991). More recently, however, Ajzen and Fishbein (200S) have recommended including both types of normative measures in constructing planned behaviour stirveys・ DN and IN will therefore be considered separately in the analyses to follow. Subjective norms-behaviour relationIn reviewing the SN construct in the planned behaviour context, Conner and Armitage(1998) have noted the lack of predictive power of the IN construct when predicting intention. Due to the paucity- of studies including DN in the planned behaviour context,conclusions regarding DN in this context are sparser. Recently, several investigators have included DN as predictors of intentions in the planned behaviour model (PBM;Fekadu &Kraft, 2002; MCiMUlan & Conner, 2(K)3; Okun et al.. 2002: Sheeran & Orbell, 1999b). Rivis and Sbeeran (2003) conducted a meta-analysis of DN in the planned behaviour context. Their analysis, based on 18 studies, demonstrated a significant relationship between DN and intention when controlling for otlier variables in the TPB.In that, these previous studies have investigated theeffects of SN on intentions, to date,no planned behaviour mcta-ana lysis has explored the potential for differences in the effects of SN on behaviour in the planned behaviour context.Deutsch and Gerard (1955) have suggested that DN and IN refer to different sources of motivation. Regarding DN, it has been shown that perceptions of behaviours of others lead one to behave in similar manners (Asch, 1956;Milgram et al., 1969). Descriptive normative information functions as a heuristic with regards to behavioural decisions offering cues as to what is appropriate behaviour iii a given situation (Cialdini et al., 1990; van Knippenberg, 2000). IN on the other iiand operate more through the role of motivation to comply with social sanctions (Ajzen, 1991;Lapinski & Rimal, 2005). To the extent that individuals are motivated to comply with perceived behavioural expectations of relevant referents, they avoid social sanctions・Though several studies have looked at the effect of one or botli types of norms on particular behaviours, there has yet to be a single meta-analytical review that compares the relationship between the two types of norms and behaviours across a spectrum of behaviours. Consequently, on a general level it is unknown whether one type of norm has a stronger effect on behaviour than the other it may be hypothesized that DN have a stronger effect on behaviour than IN because DN are activated in the immediate behavioural situation. Furthermore, processing of DN for behavioural decisions may require less cognitive effort relative to the processing of IN, in that DN may rely more on heuristic than systematic informatioprocessing・Perhaps, this advantage contributes to efficient behavioural decision・making in line with descriptive normative information. In fact, researchers have shown that conditions that facilitate the use of heuristic information-processing lead participants to act more in line with DN (Hertel, Neuhof, Theucr, & Kerr, 2000). It is expected therefore, that DN will have a stronger effect on behaviour relative to IN.Direct effect ofSN on behaviourThe TPB posits that the relationship between SN and behaviour is fully mediated by behavioural intentions (Ajzen, 1991; Ajzen & Fishbein, 1973)・ However, a number of planned behaviour studies that have included normative constructs as a behavioural predictor have found direct effects of SN on behaviour (Christian & Abrams, 2004 -Study 2; Christian & Arm让age, 2002; Christian, Armitage, & Abrams, 2003; Okun et al.,2002; Trafimow & Finlay, 2001). In most research with the TPB, the effect of the normative component on intentions has received most attention (Armitage & Conner,2001; Rivis & Sheeran, 2003) while the potential for a DE of SN onbehaviour has received little empirical or meta-analytical scrutiny.One reason to explore, the potential for a DE may be the hypothetical nature under which most people report cognitions pertaining to behaviour in planned behaviour studies・ Hypothetical contexts may not accurately reflect the relations between cognitions and behaviours that are evident in real behavioural contexts (Ajzen, Brown, & Carvajal, 2004). Furthermore, when an individual reports an intention to engage in a particular behaviour in one instance, that behavioural intention may be subject to change from the instance it is formed to the moment when an opportunity for behavioural engagement arises (Ajzen, 1991).For example, in the classic linn (1965) study, hotel managers expressed little intent to allow Chinese couples to stay in their hotels, however allowed them to do so when the instance arose・ It is less likely that perceptions of norms related to the behaviour will change over time. Consequently, there is the potential for reported normative perceptions to have stronger relations with behaviour compared with relations between reported behavioural intentions and behaviour. This may be reflected in the presence of a DE of SN on the particular behaviour. The present meta-analjtical synthesis provides the opportunity* to gauge the potential for a direct relation between SN and behaviour in the context of the TPB.Variation in the magnitude of the SN^ehaviour relationshipThe possibility of a DE of SN on behaviour within the TPB implies that there are two ways in which SN can affect behaviour. There can be the theoretically posited indirect effect on behaviour mediated through intentions, and there may be a DE on behaviour. The total effect therefore is the sum of these two effects・ In accord with the prediction that DN have a stronger relation with behaviours compared to the IN-behaviour relation, it is expected that the total effect of DN on behaviour is greater than the total effect of IN on behaviour. In addition to predicted differences between DN and IN in their effects on behaviour, there is the potential for differences in the magnitude of the effect within each type of norm. Compatibility* between measures of cognition and behaviour and the time between measurement of cognitions and behaviour are expected to lead to differences in the magnitudes of the effects of SN on behaviour. Additionally, the potential moderating effect of three further variables will be explored;the level of social approval of the behaviour, the extent to which social motives underlie behaviour, and the extent to which a behaviour is uselial versus pleasant may all contribute to variance in the relationship between norms and behaviour.CompatibilityElements of a particular behaviour can be defined in terms of the behavioural target, the action involved in the behaviour, the context in which the behaviour is performed, and the time at wliich it is performed. The relationship between cognitive predictors of a particular behaviour and engagement in the behaviour will be stronger if behavioural elements and cognitive assessment of the behaviour are compatible (Ajzen, 1996; Ajzen & Fishbein. 1977). That is to say., for instance, that if an investigator would tike to pretlict someone's propensity* to exercise 3 days a week for half an hour, measures should assess cognitions regarding exercising 3 days a week for half an hour rather than cognitions to be healthy, or some other general cognition regarding exercise・Tenned the ”principle of compatibility0, it holds that measurements of planned behaviour variables must be compatible with the target behaviour in terms of target, action, context, and time. Given the effect of compatibility and the magnitude of the correlations between planned behaviour variables and behavioural measures, it is expected that studies where the cognitive and behavioural measures are fully compatible will feature stronger relations between SN and behaviour. It is also expected that among studies where measures are more compatible, the intention mediated relation between SN and behaviour will be stronger than any unmediated relation, in line with theoretical dictates, whereas among studies that are less compatible there will potentially be greater direct effects of SN on behaviour.Time interval between measures of SN and behaviourAccording to Ajzen ( 1991 ). cognitive precursors of behaviour that are measured closer to the target behaviour should be more predictive of behavioural engagement. Due to motivational considerations, measures of the intention to engage in a particular behaviour will vary as a function of proximity to behavioural engagement (Bandura & Schunk. 1981; Kamiol & Ross, 1996; Steel & Konig, 2006) in that tlie ftirther in the future is the potential behavioural engagement, the less predictive are intentions to engage in this behaviour. As Ibe relation between stated intentions and actual behaviour decreases over time, the potential exists for SN to be relatively more predictive of behaviour. This potential is evident in light of the argument outlined above wherein SN pertaining to a behaviour are less likely to change over time compared to behavioural intentions. As such, it is expected that as the time between measurement of cognitions and behaviour increases, SN will be reflected to a greater extent in actual behaviour.Furthermore, as the relation between intentions and behaviour diminishes, it is likely that the DE of SN on behaviour will be stronger as more time passes between measures of cognition and behaviour.计划行为理论根据TPB理论，行为的直接前因是执行行为的意向。
国际贸易外文文献
目录一、外文文献译文（1）2008：狂乱之旅 (1)二、外文文献原文（1）2008: A Wild Ride (6)三、外文文献译文（2）2008年下半年场外衍生产品市场活动 (13)四、外文文献原文（2）OTC derivatives market activity in the second half of 2008 (16)2008：狂乱之旅对全球期货和期权行业而言，2008年是惊心动魄的一年。
一些主要的市场参与者，有些甚至曾经是市场上规模最大的公司之一，现在已经消失；同时，市场参与者面临的交易对手信用风险加剧，市场状况令人担忧。
特别是在2008年9月雷曼兄弟宣布破产后，市场波动加剧，流动性随之降低，期货和期权市场上一些全球交易规模最大和最富盛名的交易品种的交易量也产生了毋庸置疑的下跌。
尽管市场动荡不安，但期货和期权交易量的总趋势仍然是向上增长的。
美国期货业协会追踪的遍布全球的69个交易所交易的期货及期权的总交易量同比上涨13.7%。
虽然美国处于信用危机的风暴中心，受创最为严重，但是美国交易所2008年期货和期权交易量仍然同比增长14.0%，欧洲和亚洲的交易量增加得更快。
毫无疑问，交易量在多年高速增长后，增速已逐步放缓。
2008年全球期货和期权交易量同比增长13.7%，远低于2007年30.9%和2006年18.9%的增幅。
The Big ChillAfter shooting upward for several years, the growth in global futures and options trading decelerated sharply in 2008.更重要的是，相对温和的数据掩盖了不同类别交易品种交易量变化趋势的差异性。
以美国为例，美国期货市场的交易量仅仅同比增长了 4.4%。
与此截然相反的是，尽管市场波动异常剧烈，美国期权交易所的交易量仍然同比大涨25.1%。