美国次级债危机英文
U.S. sub-prime mortgage loans, since the exposure began in July 2007, triggering the basis of its asset securitization products - home mortgage subprime mortgage crisis, followed by a general like dominoes quickly spread to global financial markets, also in an economic China's high level of financial wake-up call to run the article through the presentation of the U.S. sub-prime market operation mechanism, and subordinated debt cause of the problem, analysis of the crisis for China's financial markets, and to give inspiration to guard against financial risks Subprime mortgage crisis in the final analysis is a bubble problem, if only from the subordinated debt accounted for all financial assets scale, subordinated debt for derivative financial products is extremely developed in the United States, the status is not very prominent. But the" subprime crisis" was from the American real estate market quickly spread to the credit market, the bond market, the stock market, then triggered a global capital market big shock, and for many years the United States economy accumulated a greater risk, at the same time, the global capital flows have become increasingly frequent, cause the financial risk can easily be enlarged there is a close relationship between the. With strong capital project barrier, the subprime crisis on China's impact, but the crisis has given in financial and economic high growth especially asset price excessively quickly rise, lower cost of funds, the excess liquidity of China provides a precious opportunity for reflection, we sounded the alarm at the same time it also brings a lot of inspiration.1 in the period of rapid economic development, we must prevent excessive rising asset prices and asset bubble accumulation. Whether investors or the real estate enterprises to guard against macroeconomic system risk, avoid investment behavior in gambling and the psychology of adventure.The subprime crisis shows: asset price is a virtual element, conceals considerable damage, the rapid rise in is a direct consequence of the entity economy caused great damage. This crisis is the United States of America overheated real estate market and the weakness of China, also the existence of such worries.2 commercial banks to strengthen the prudential operation, under the excess liquidity in credit risk management, the importance of real estate market in the development of all kinds of financial risks. In a sense, the United States subprime crisis and financial institutions in the real estate boom risks accumulated in a concentrated outbreak. The subprime crisis tells us: the rapid rise in prices tend to cover up a lot of credit risk and operational risk, therefore, no matter when, product pricing and risk management tools can't lose my mind. Seriously study the United States subprime debt crisis and its lessons, a comprehensive review of the Bank of China housing mortgage loan quality and risk of mortgage loans, pay close attention to the price risk, strict management, careful operation, should become our country commercial bank credit to housing management a pressing matter of the moment.3 to absorb and summarize the United States subprime mortgage securitization experience, choose the quality of bank assets securitization.Asset securitization is not wrong in itself, the error lies in the innovation of financial products in the design process of the system defects, namely the securitization of assets is a mortgage company to those at high risk, repayment ability bad issued high interest rates" subprime mortgage loan". As mentioned, in the prone to moral hazard under the circumstances, these assets are packaged, composition called asset-backed securities, and then sold to the investment funds, insurance companies and banks. In this way, the debt chain extension, risk is magnified, once the housing mortgage loan due to raise interest rates and unable to pay, the mortgage payments as cash flow of the bond is not to be worth a hair. At present, our country is actively promoting asset securitization, we must learn the lessons of the crisis of subordinated debt, bank good assets securitization. Although investors while obtaining the income must assume the risk, however, the bank can not think of the loan securitization is one finished, all is finished. Still should pay close attention to, and the quality of the credit risk of loan. In fact, the asset securitization is a structure of product, its itself on the securitization of assets are strictly defined, such as to be predictable and stable cash flow, a good credit record, default and default rates low and with standardization and quality guarantee and collection terms and securitization of assets quality and credit rating can be accurately assessed. The United States to the subprime mortgage securitization exploration and lessons should be said of China's asset securitization practice has important significance. In asset securitization in China must strengthen the asset pool of information disclosure, to establish asset credit risk evaluation system, regulate, guide credit rating behavior, avoid the information asymmetry in the investment risk.4 must strengthen the construction of personal credit system, strengthen financial supervision, improve the ability of risk prevention. The subprime crisis, is essentially the borrowers credit crisis. But it is thanks to the sound credit system and market instruments in different products and services provided between the risk isolation, American subprime mortgage crisis without further spread to other levels of the loan, thereby effectively reducing the expected economic loss. In the United States, the different credit level of people and institutions to enjoy the resources and the cost is not the same. For example, the credit rating higher than 660 lenders, can enjoy preferential interest rates; credit rating below 660 points to lenders, have to accept the relatively high interest rates. If a credit score is below 620, debt is heavy, can not provide proof of income, can be through the secondary mortgage market to obtain loans, borrowers need to assume the credit risk premium. The market of separated as different credit risk assets set up a firewall, to some extent the risk of the filtering function. In China, our product development and with no credit level together, the current mortgage purchase procedures is also very simple, no credit record, unit need only" wage income proof", in this way, the different credit rating loans are mixed together, it is difficult to distinguishbetween the size of the risk. Draw lessons from the United States in the credit market in terms of structural technology, strengthen risk filtering mechanism construction, establish a sound credit system, effective for customers to distinguish, and based on this R & D structured housing credit products, to China's commercial banks to control risks be of great advantage.On the other hand, our country also must strengthen government supervision mechanism, take measures to prevent financial institutions, excessive lending and asset value of the irrational rise. From the subprime crisis, we can see, the United States financial system in many aspects of the existing lack of supervision. In early 2003, the financial regulatory authorities have to mortgage companies to lower credit standards of practice, the rating agencies will also be some subprime mortgage agencies included in the" credit watch" list, but these were not regulatory attention. Instead, the federal reserve side sustained increases in interest rates, the other side is to continue to encourage lending institutions to develop and sell adjustable rate mortgages, until 2006 September, the financial regulatory departments began to proposed and introduced regulatory guidelines, aimed at curbing the irresponsible lending practices, but it's too late. The United States of America lesson reminds us: in the economic and financial running high period, regulatory departments must strengthen the credit risk of the commercial bank regulation and the credit intermediary orgnaization behavior constraints, strengthen investor risk warning education, take measures, to prevent asset bubbles and stacking, thereby avoiding for the asset bubble rupture leading to economic fluctuations risk。
英文翻译次贷危机The US debt crisis
The US debt crisis, its triple-A credit （AAA）rating has been downgraded to (AA+).default on U.S. debtStandard and Poor's 标准普尔The U.S. averted a debt default Tuesday when President Barack Obama signed a bill raising the country's debt ceiling. But the debt deal might not be enough to maintain its coveted AAA debt rating, according to two credit rating agencies.On Tuesday, Fitch Ratings said the agreement to raise the debt ceiling and make spending cuts was an important first step but "not the end of the process." The rating agency said it wants to see a credible plan to reduce the budget deficit "to a level that would secure the United States''AAA' status."And late on Tuesday, Moody's Investors Service assigned a negative outlook to U.S. debt, but confirmed its AAA rating — for now. A negative outlook means the rating agency could lower the rating in the next 12 to 18 months. Moody's said that continued slow economic growth, higher interest rates could lead to a downgrade. Moody's also said weak fiscal discipline in the coming year could do the same.U.S. debt has held the AAA rating since 1917. Fewer than 20 countries are currently rated AAA. Among them: the United Kingdom, Australia, Germany and Singapore.Fitch expects to conclude its review of the U.S.'s debt rating by the end of August. Given the terms of the debt deal signed Tuesday, it is possible the U.S. debt rating could be downgraded at that time, Fitch said.In an interview with The Associated Press on Tuesday, David Riley, managing director at Fitch, said, "There's more to be done in order to keep the rating in the medium-term."The three main ratings agencies rate the debt issued by countries, states, corporations and municipalities. Ratings are based on a likelihood of default. The AAA rating is the highest available and signifies an extremely low likelihood of default.Standard & Poor's, the other major ratings agency, declined to comment Tuesday. In mid-July S&P warned that there was a 50-50 chance it would downgrade U.S. debt. Had the country defaulted, experts have said a downgrade by all three agencies would have been likely.The U.S. has only faced the threat of a downgrade once in the last 96 years. In 1995, when Bill Clinton was president, a similar default loomed and the credit rating agencies threatened a downgrade. At the time, the country had $4.9 trillion in debt — nearly $10 trillion less than it has now. Once Congress resolved that debt crisis a year later, the credit agencies removed the threat.Federated Investors' chief fixed income strategist Joe Balestrino points out that during the Clinton era the U.S. economy was growing at a much faster pace. Now, the economy is emerging from the deepest recession since the Great Depression and growth is sluggish. On Friday, the government said that in the first half of the year, the economy grew at its slowest pace since the recession officially ended in June 2009."Growth healed all wounds in 1995," Balestrino said. "However, now the U.S. doesn't have enough vitality to grow its way out."A Monday report that showed weakness in manufacturing followed Friday's GDP report. And on Tuesday, the Commerce Department said that consumers cut their spending in June for the firsttime in nearly two years.Because of that, many analysts believe that U.S. debt will eventually be downgraded to AA. And if that happens, it could be tough to regain the AAA rating."If the economy won't grow at 2.5 percent over the long term, it has pretty profound implications from a fiscal point of view," said Riley, the Fitch managing director.He said "that means the U.S. is poorer than it thought" and that legislators will face even tougher choices "in terms of taxes and spending," he said.Fitch also said that between federal, state and local government debt U.S. government debt will be as large as the country's economy by the end of 2012 — or 100 percent of the country's gross domestic product. And Fitch said it expects the country's debt level will continue to rise. The agency warned that would not consistent with a debt level that would allow the U.S. to retain its AAA sovereign rating. Similarly, Moody's said for the U.S. to keep its AAA rating, it expects to see the federal government's debt-to-GDP ratio stay near its projected 2012 level of 73 percent in the next several years, and then decline.In the short term, Balestrino and others don't expect investors to start selling their Treasury holdings. That's because Treasurys are considered one of the safest investment options.Fitch said the status of the U.S. dollar and the size of the Treasury market are the biggest reasons investors won't abandon Treasurys soon. The dollar is the global reserve currency, which means a significant amount of global trade is made in dollars — from toys and computer chips from China, coffee from Kenya or cars from Japan. Central banks in other countries therefore hold large reserves of U.S. currency, mostly through Treasury purchases.The U.S. Treasury market is the largest government bond market, at $9.3 trillion.And Moody's said while it expects interest rates to rise some over the next few years "a rise in borrowing costs above and beyond what is now expected would threaten efforts at fiscal consolidation" and could negatively impact the country's AAA rating.Standard and Poor's has downgraded the United States' credit rating by one notch from AAA to AA+ for the first time in the history of the ratings, despite a push back from the White House and the USTreasury: They have said the agency's analysis of the US economy was deeply flawed and off by trillions of dollars. This is proving to be a contentious move that highlights the weakened fiscal stature of the world’s most power ful country. To add to America's concerns, the agency has also issued a negative outlook. As a result, there is a chance it will lower the rating further within the next two years.The downgrade:1. Comes in the midst of great uncertainty and volatility in globalfinancial markets in the last week;2. Appears to originate from political as well economic analysis andthe consequences of the action could be wide-ranging andunpredictable; and3. Was rumored for weeks during the prolonged debt-ceiling debate in the US Congress but many felt that last week's deal would reduce the chances of such drastic action. Asmany decision makers across the world will recall, US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner said that a downgrade wasn't going to happen. Geithner said that there was no chance that the US would lose its top credit rating. "No risk of that, no risk," Geithner said on one of the leading television business networks in April, 2011.What are the implications of S&P's downgrade of US debt from AAA to AA +?The official statement from S&P follows:"We lowered our long-term rating on the US because we believe that the prolonged controversy over raising the statutory debt ceiling and the related fiscal policy debate indicate that further near-term progress containing the growth in public spending, especially on entitlements, or on reaching an agreement on raising revenues is less likely than we previously assumed and will remain a contentious and fitful process. We also believe that the fiscal consolidation plan that Congress and the Administration agreed to this week falls short of the amount that we believe is necessary to stabilize the general government debt burden by the middle of the decade. Our lowering of the rating was prompted by our view on the rising public debt burden and our perception of greater policymaking uncertainty, consistent with our criteria. Nevertheless, we view the US federal government's other economic, external, and monetary credit attributes, which form the basis for the sovereign rating, as broadly unchanged."ConclusionIf the United States does not merit a AAA rating from S&P any more, is there an inenvitable risk to the AAA ratings of a number of other major countries? S&P still has a triple-A rating on the following key nations: Australia, Austria, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Sweden, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The corollary to this downgrade is that S&P will need to embark on an immediate review of the credit ratings of all the major sovereigns. Is there a risk of pandemonium in the global financial markets as a result of the unilateral change in the AAA credit rating of the US? Which of the other AAA nations are likely to lose their top-notch status?8月6日，著名的国际三大评级机构之一标准普尔公司将美国的主权债务信用评级从最高级别AAA级下调至AA+，并且将评级展望定为负面。
美国次贷危机
一、美国次贷危机的背景本小组认为在次贷危机发生前，世界经济持续较快增长，近几年来，世界经济增长速度持续高于预期。
国际货币基金组织于2006年9月份公布的《世界经济展望》报告,分别将2006年和2007年的世界经济增长预测从4.9％和4.7％上调为5.1％和4.9％，均上调了0.2个百分点。
照此计算，从2003年开始，世界经济增长速度将连续五年达到4％以上，平均增速接近4.7％。
在（一）次贷危机发生前世界经济的主要热点问题1、第一, 全球石油价格将继续维持在高位。
我们知道2005 年全球石油价格的涨幅和绝对水平创下了过去几年的新高, 最高超过了每桶70美元。
虽然目前有所回落, 但仍维持在每桶60 美元左右。
年, 预计这种比较高的石油价格, 将会持续下去, 总体水平虽比年有所下降, 但仍将继续维持在高位。
由于石油价格长期维持在高位,1.利率全面上升。
2006年全球利率呈现全面上升态势。
英、美、澳大利亚和新西兰等发达国家是最早进入此轮升息周期者。
欧元区经济复苏的基础日益稳固，而通胀率却长期高于欧洲央行设定的2％通胀目标的上限。
因此，欧洲央行连续五次加息25个基点至基准利率3.25％。
日本央行于2006年3月9日宣布结束实行了五年之久的定量宽松货币政策，并于7月14日将基准利率提高到0.25％，结束了零利率政策。
美国经济从2006年4月中旬到6月初仍保持较快扩张，但随后增速减缓，同时房地产市场降温明显。
更为重要的是，通胀始终保持在温和可控的状态下和失业持续保持在低位是此轮美国经济稳定较快增长的重要基础因素，然而，在利率不断升高的情况下通胀压力依然存在。
目前美国利率调整已经达到前期确定的5％～5.5％的中性目标，在私人投资率持续过低和经济发展不平衡不断加剧的背景下，低增长与通胀风险依旧，使美联储处于困难的决策阶段。
过度紧缩有使美国经济增速大幅下降的可能，也会使全球利率水平进一步上升，不利于世界经济稳定增长。
美国次贷危机的始末
美国次贷危机(subprime crisis)又称次级房贷危机，也译为次债危机。
它是指一场发生在美国，因次级抵押贷款机构破产、投资基金被迫关闭、股市剧烈震荡引起的金融风暴。
美国“次贷危机”是从2006年(丙戌年)春季开始逐步显现的。
在2006年之前的5年里，由于美国住房市场持续繁荣，加上前几年美国利率水平较低，美国的次级抵押贷款市场迅速发展。
随着美国住房市场的降温尤其是短期利率的提高，次贷还款利率也大幅上升，购房者的还贷负担大为加重。
同时，住房市场的持续降温也使购房者出售住房或者通过抵押住房再融资变得困难。
这种局面直接导致大批次贷的借款人不能按期偿还贷款，银行收回房屋，却卖不到高价，大面积亏损，引发了次贷危机。
2007年8月次贷危机席卷美国、欧盟和日本等世界主要金融市场。
这场危机导致过度投资次贷金融衍生品的公司和机构纷纷倒闭，并在全球范围引发了严重的信贷紧缩。
美国次贷危机最终引发了波及全球的金融危机。
2008年9月，雷曼兄弟破产和美林公司被收购标志着金融危机的全面爆发。
随着虚拟经济的灾难向实体经济扩散，世界各国经济增速放缓，失业率激增，一些国家开始出现严重的经济衰退。
2011年1月10日，国际清算银行在巴塞尔召开成员央行行长双月例会及全球经济会议，分析全球经济形势。
全球经济会议主席欧洲央行行长特里谢表示，世界经济已走出危机阴影，全球经济复苏已经确立。
钜丰金业友情提示：投资有风险，入市需谨慎！。
次级债券危机
以2007年4月美国第二大次级债供应商新世纪金融公司申请破产保护 为代表; 大量的次级债供应商纷纷倒闭或申请破产保护 接下来受到影响的 就是购买这些证券化产品的对冲基金 投资银行 商业银行 保险公司以及各 种基金; 美国一些知名的金融机构像贝尔斯登 Sowood资本管理 高盛以及 花旗银行等都受到了冲击
次级subprime：收入证明缺失 负债较重
相对应地;
住房抵押贷款→ ↗↘ 次优优级级住住房房抵抵押押贷贷款款
次级住房抵押贷款：零首付 低首付
贷款利率比一般抵押贷款高2%3%
次级住房抵押贷款合同设计的不合理也为借款者的还款能高力风埋险下;高了收隐益患
＊ 可调整利率还款 如：允许借款人在前两年以低于市场利率水平的固定利率还贷;两年后再转化为利率水平高于市场 利率的浮动利率贷款
汇率制度会受到挑战
美国次贷危机导致美国经济和美元下滑;必然会对主要与美元挂钩 的人民币汇率产生影响 当前;我国外贸不平衡的矛盾更加突出;人民币 与美元息差倒挂;流动性过剩和通货膨胀压力逐步加大;热钱流入加快 及人民币升值压力不断加大 美联储利率的调整对人民币汇率的调整 都有相当大的影响;甚至造成直接的冲击
居民预期收入减少;消费信心严重受挫;消费支出增长停滞
最新的美国经济数据显示; 消费者的支出开始受到家庭资产价格缩 水 主要是房产 和生活成本提高的负面影响; 消费者信心指数下降至57 2; 该消费者信心数据创1992年10月以来的16年最低点;并且这种负面影响 正在加剧 美国的经济是消费拉动型经济; 个人消费支出约占GDP的70%; 消费萎缩无疑将会严重影响美国经济增长
subprime+crisis次贷危机
IMPACT ON CORPORATIONS AND INVESTORS
• Bank corporations: Companies value their mortgageassets (receivables) based on estimates of collections from panies record expe nses in the current period to adjust this valuation,increasi ng their bad debt reserves and reducing earnings. Rapid or unexpectedchanges in mortgage asset valuation can lead to volatility in earnings and stock prices. The ability of lenders to predict future collections is a complex task subjectto a multitude of variabt throughout 2007 and 2008.
US Subprime Mortgage Crisis
Summer 07, MFIN7011, Tang
Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS)
Subprime Mortgage Crisis
Thank you !
IMPACT ON STOCK MARKETS
OnJuly 19,2007, theDow Jones Industrial Averagehit a record high, closingabove 14,000 for the first time. ByAugust 15, the Dow had dropped below theS&P 500had crossed into negative territory year-to-date. Similar drops occurred invirtually every market in the world, with Brazil and Korea being hard-hit. Large dailydrops became common, with, for example, theKOSPIdropping about 7% in one day,although 2007's largest daily drop by the S&P 500 in the U.S. was in February, a result of the subprime crisis
美国次贷危机【英文】
Presented to Professor Castillo-Ponce
Subprime Mortgage Crisis
Sharp rise in home foreclosures in late 2006 Only 9% in 1996, 13% in 1999, 20% in 2006 $1.3 Trillion subprime mortgage as of March 2007 The delinquency rate had risen to 21% by 2008
Finaaction from high returns Offered high-risk loan and incentives Believes that will pass on the risk to others
Securitization
Direct Impacts of the Crisis
Financial Institutions – Write-Downs
Citigroup (USA) - $24.1 bln Merrill Lynch (USA) - $22.5 bln UBS AG (Switzerland) - $16.7 bln Morgan Stanley (USA) - $10.3 Credit Agricole (France) - $4.8 bln HSBC (United Kingdom) - $3.4 bln Bank of America (USA) - $5.28 bln CIBC (Canada) – 3.2 bln Deutsche Bank (Germany) - $3.1 bln
财政金融热点名词解释汇总
财政金融名词解释汇总次贷危机（subprime mortgage crisis）又称次级房贷危机，也译为次债危机。
它是指一场发生在美国，因次级抵押贷款机构破产、投资基金被迫关闭、股市剧烈震荡引起的金融风暴。
它致使全球主要金融市场出现流动性不足危机。
美国“次贷危机”是从2006年春季开始逐步显现的。
2007年8月开始席卷美国、欧盟和日本等世界主要金融市场。
次贷危机目前已经成为国际上的一个热点问题。
宏观调控宏观调控：指政府为实现宏观( 总量) 平衡，保证经济持续、稳定、协调增长，而对货币收支总量、财政收支总量和外汇收支总量的调节与控制；由此扩展开来，通常把政府为弥补市场失灵采取的其他措施也纳入宏观调控的范畴。
在社会主义市场经济条件下，调控的主要目标是：经济稳定增长，重大经济结构优化，物价总水平基本稳定，充分就业，公正的收入分配，国际收支平衡等。
物价通常所说的物价其实就是生产价格，而生产价格是由部门平均生产成本加上社会平均利润构成的价格。
生产价格就是价值的转化形态。
价格是商品交换的产物。
价格是一个历史范畴，是随着商品交换的产生而产生、发展而发展的。
价格是交换双方利益的集中体现。
价格变动能够引起交换双方经济利益的此消彼长，即价格具有利益的消长性。
物价指数是反映计算期销售或购进的全部商品价格总水平比基期水平升降变动程度的相对数，通常以计算期（年度、季度或月度）与基期（某年度、季度或月度）相对比，以百分数表示。
</P< p>物价指数是经济指数中比较复杂的一种相对数。
按包括商品种类不同，分为单项商品价格指数、商品类别指数和总指数。
按采用基期的不同，分为环比物价指数（以上一期为基期）、年距环比物价指数（以上年同期为基期）、定基物价指数（和固定时期比较）。
按商品的种类和流通环节区分，有工业品出厂价格指数，农副产品收购价格指数、批发物价指数、零售物价指数、服务项目价格指数、职工生活费用价格指数、工农业商品的综合比价指数。
美国次贷危机
经过评级机构 对非机构抵押 贷款支持证券 进行评级
金融机构
优质巨额 抵押贷款
Alt-A贷款 次级贷款
评级机构
CDO债务抵押债券（债务担保凭证）
CDO（ Collateralized Debt Obligation） 从银行系统剥离出来，由投资银行包装成
多种证券出售给投资者旳次级债券。 美国信用分值在次级债级别旳有600万人，
次级按揭规模1.3万亿
投行将CDO提成不同等级，等级高者卖给市 场，等级低者没给对冲基金。
2023年此前，日本银行贷款利率为1.5%， 一般CDO收益率为12%。
对冲基金收益丰厚，反过来，投行又购置对 冲基金。
对冲基金又将高收益旳CDO抵押给银行购置 更多旳CDO。
故事还没有结束，华尔街旳投行家们有发行 了CDS旳创新产品：
高达10%-12%旳利率使抵押贷款具有高 风险性。伴随美联储屡次上调利率，次级房 贷还款利率越来越高，造成拖欠债务比率上 升。
美国房地产景气出现明显下降使贷款违约 不断增多，多家次级市场放款机构深陷坏帐 危机。
2023年3月13日，美国住房抵押贷款银
抵押贷款旳“食物链”1
借款人
抵押贷款经纪商
借款人向经纪商或贷款企业申请贷款 经纪商经过贷款企业取得抵押贷款
大型贷款企业 和投资机构
贷款企业
抵押贷款旳“食物链”2
贷款企业将原则类抵押贷款卖给 房利美客户经理或房地美
贷款企业经过投资机构将贷款打 包成非机构抵押贷款支持证券
投资银行
房利美、房地美
机构抵押贷款支持证券 （Agency MBS）
非机构抵押贷款支持证券 （ No Agency MBS）
旳历史。
1929年10月，华尔街股市暴跌；
美国次贷危机
次贷危机对世界经济的影响
美国经济衰退风险增加 消费、工业、就业、金融
国际金融市场不确定性风险加大 利率差异、资本市场震荡、 银行业、国家非市场化干预 金融活动
新兴经济是否会与发达经济脱钩
重要 影响
此ห้องสมุดไป่ตู้彼长
需求降、美元贬、投机减 全球资源价格高位震荡下行
次贷危机对我国的影响
（一）对我国金融市场的流动性会产生影响,有可能加 剧资产价格膨胀及金融市场大幅波动 （二）对我国出口的负面影响将逐步显现 总体上看,受美国次贷危机影响,2008年美国经济增长 速度可能进一步放缓,有可能发生经济衰退。由于我国 对美国出口的依赖程度较高,美国经济进入衰退,特别是 美国消费水平下降,对进口商品的需求相应下降,这将从 外需方面抑制我国出口的增长。同时,美国经济衰退会 导致贸易保护压力增大,“中国制造”将面临更多的反倾 销和反补贴诉讼,而这将削弱我国出口商品国际竞争力, 这将对我国经济增长和就业产生显着冲击。
尤其是促进农业的持续快速发展，提高 农民的收入水平，扩大农村消费。
次贷危机对我们的启示
一 保持稳健的货币政策 二 限制负债消费的额度 三 有节制的发展资本市场 ,严格控制衍生金融工具的使用 尽管通过证券化可以转移风险，却不会减少、更不能消灭风险。 事实上，由于证券化，贷款者和借款者不再有一对一的面对面接 触。经纪人大力推销按揭贷款，但并不提供贷款，贷款者和经纪 人并没有保证贷款不发生问题的强烈动机。对贷款者和经纪人的 支付方式（算总帐）也使二者产生尽量增加贷款的强烈动机。在 这种情况下，风险不但不会减少，反而会增加。但是，不管怎么 说，至少从表面上看，风险已经从发起人转移到最终投资人。虽 然最终投资人愿意承担较高风险，但问题是，他们往往低估自己 所承担的风险。
The United States subprime mortgage crisis (美国次贷危机)
2.
Given the scale of recent events, any observer could hardly be blamed for asking the questions posed at the beginning of this article - 'how did this happen; how can we resolve it; and how can we prevent it from happening again?' This commentary has so far discussed the first question, and we now turn to the second and third parts.
8. Investors become Complacent - Greed triumphs Fear - "Fear, what Fear?" 9. Institutions Create Structured Investment Vehicles and Conduits - People Lose Track of Who Owns What. 10. People start to worry about being paid back - holders of capital go on strike.
The United States subprime mortgage crisis
Sub-Prime And The Credit Crunch
The global financial market is at its most critical juncture in almost 80 years. How did this happen? How can we resolve it and how can we prevent it from happening again?