9-4 石油平衡表(仅全国指标,方便2000-2017多年数据的分析对比)
2017年我国石油行业综合发展情况及发展趋势图文深度分析报告
2017年我国石油行业综合发展情况及发展趋势图文深度分析报告（2017.7.19）一、石油行业概况1、原材料供应持续增长近年来，我国经济保持持续稳定增长，石油消费量稳步提升，2008-2016 年期间，国家石油表观消费量从 2008 年的 3.65 亿吨增加至 5.78 亿吨，累计增长58.34%。
中国石油消费量将于 2027 年增长至峰值 6.7 亿吨左右，2014 年-2027年间年均增长率约为 2%，且在 2027-2035 年石油消费量继续保持在高位。
2008-2016年中国石油消费量在石油消费量稳定增长的同时，我国的石油冶炼工业也形成了全面发展的产业格局，充分满足石油消费增长的需求。
截至 2016 年底，我国炼油产能约为 7.5亿吨，从经营主体看，我国目前形成了以中石化、中石油为主，中海油、中化集团、中国兵器、地方炼厂、外资及煤基油品企业等多元化的发展格局。
其中，中石化、中石油炼油能力分别为 2.60 亿吨/年、1.89 亿吨/年，国内占比分别为 34.5%和 25.0%。
随着原油进口权和原油使用权的放开，地方炼厂显示出较强的冲击力和竞争力，成为国内炼油产业的重要组成部分。
截至 2016 年底，全国地方炼厂（含央企收购或控股的地方炼油企业）的炼油总能力达 2.62 亿吨/年，占全国炼油总产能的 34.8%，山东地方炼油厂占据了重要份额。
燃料油作为炼油工业的副产品，其产出量一般为催化裂化炼油方式炼油量的3-5%。
目前全国燃料油产出量在 1,000-1,500 万吨左右。
受石油消费量提升的推动和充分的炼油工业的支持，2027 年前我国燃料油的产出量也将保持稳定增长，为燃料油深加工行业提供了较为充足的原材料供应。
2、产业分布呈现地域集中趋势国内炼油产能具有较强的集团分布的同时，也存在较为明显的区域性分布。
华北、东北、华南和华东地区为我国炼油能力的集中分布地。
2016年华北、东北、华南和华东四大地区的炼油能力分别为2.7亿吨/年、1.24亿吨/年、1.14亿吨/年和1.01亿吨/年，分别占比36%、16%、15%和13%，合计占比81%，呈现出以东部为主，中西部为辅的梯次分布。
2017年国际原油发展态势调研分析报告
2017年国际原油发展态势调研
分析报告
（2017年4月1日）
2015年全球原油产量43.6亿吨，其中OPEC占据市场份额为41.4%。
沙特、美国、俄罗斯是三大石油巨头，其合计市场份额为38%。
2015年主要产油国产量份额
2015年OPEC国家产量份额
2007年以来美国页岩油快速发展使得其原油市场份额快速提升（8%提升至13%），对OPEC造成了压力（44%下降至41%）。
美国原油产量及份额
OPEC原油产量及份额
2016年9月份OPEC原油产量为3339万桶/天，较油价暴跌前增长9.3%。
OPEC原油产量（千桶/天）
2016年11月30日，OPEC各国达成限产协议，从2017年1月开始共计减产120万桶/日（约占全球总产量1.3%）。
此外非OPEC协议减产60万桶/日。
根据IEA公布的数据，2017年1月全球原油减产150万桶/日，其中OPEC减产100万桶/日。
OPEC限产情况（千桶/天）。
中国能源统计年鉴2004年-2016年地区能源平衡表消费量合计统计表
地区能源平衡表：消费量合计煤合计原煤洗精煤其他洗煤型煤煤矸石序号省份年份(万吨)(万吨)(万吨)(万吨)(万吨)(万吨) 1北京20042939.642425.31505.958.15 3.41 1北京20053068.972605.37455.38.28 2.421北京20063055.672692.64338.548.0544.721北京20072984.672741.56227.329.1133.271北京20082747.732522.02223.948.8524.871北京20092664.72452.61214.859.3220.21北京20102634.622415.41220.52 6.4334.620.37 1北京20112365.532358.9813.1729.730.11 1北京20122269.892264.7914.3427.251北京20132019.232011.7112.34022.231北京20141736.541728.2510.050.0217.751北京20151165.181153.578.710.0317.081北京2016847.62841.810.02 1.16 6.222天津20043508.573025.25483.322天津20053801.453289.27512.182天津20063809.313226.55582.762天津20073926.73394.32532.382天津20083972.773485.24487.532天津20094119.653633.1486.552天津20104806.794362.1424.5116.87 3.3158.65 2天津20115261.54799431.128.11 3.2957.71 2天津20125298.124855.55419.9820.88 1.7164.08 2天津20135278.674832.5427.1817.62 1.3716.36 2天津20145027.284597.19403.1425.44 1.5114.71 2天津20154538.834172.65350.3914.11 1.6817.68 2天津20164230.163865.1529667.64 1.3715.9 3河北200417084.2616952.82370.14804.9785.153河北200520542.3919383.293366.941149.2586.453河北200621345.4219580.724426.211100.84115.463河北200724548.5122437.175454.861148.69112.23河北200824418.6222898.375493.19916.18174.223河北200926515.8124050.596933.33919.19279.663河北201027464.7226676.517183.47742.88278.3348.21 3河北201130791.7528747.198663.86818.29313.94379.83 3河北20123135930248.899246.91799.99241.13254.18 3河北201331663.2731346.689275.9227.24264.41233.81 3河北201429635.5429776.338122.52653.97204.38192.89 3河北201528943.1330140.467627.02172.91300.27307.97 3河北201628105.6528608.057112.78641.24270.58202.19 4山西200422432.6725352.36403.84736.7432.314山西200525681.4278508571.16863.1528.064山西200628351.2231255.9810498.75900.5634.044山西200729203.4832878.7912566.851890.285.164山西200828372.7132603.7211082.881778.65184.534山西200927761.9332207.7110354.691476.51148.584山西201029865.135315.1711523.581427.14139.852248.64 4山西201133478.6541395.5612436.121724.53167.682225.89 4山西201234551.1746049.512023.181782.28182.62208.75 4山西201336636.518118512704.871790.41158.521133.18 4山西201437587.4384055.812340.031728.76166.931328.7 4山西201537115.179799.5511265.521611.03135.461225.21 4山西201635621.0377492.0110935.82117.46124.971461.45内蒙古200411391.4411646.4875.51482.58102.175内蒙古200513921.8113910.211182.17598.41 1.385内蒙古200616188.88160901300.15757.229.015内蒙古200718531.5118560.731696.14870.4317.515内蒙古200822241.8422962.121712.11992.44229.845内蒙古200924047.324528.822105.261317.29303.375内蒙古201027004.0429657.12873.231639.97300.48613.55 5内蒙古201134683.5139528.363389.06641.77233.19921.77 5内蒙古201236620.4941421.53723.52431.01166.78645.58 5内蒙古201334915.7241475.154037.65401.2639.38694.28 5内蒙古201436465.9742741.244473.36381.8935.64984.46 5内蒙古201536499.7640474.133929.19305.2649.2786.43 5内蒙古201636675.3240491.873308.7497.3661.09781.06 6辽宁200411945.1811475.51618.99902.5413.756辽宁200513069.6712116.612059.37891.5 6.56辽宁200614211.3112860.492334.17975.5611.766辽宁200715224.3213339.142550.081151.99.866辽宁200815346.6613381.522713.141138.6811.86辽宁200916032.5214468.422924.111055.9411.356辽宁201016908.4315311.142926.591033.0731.74187.35 6辽宁201118053.616320.363142.791110.7737.2339.12 6辽宁201218218.8616474.023160.271108.138.77614.15 6辽宁201318132.77166943482.57474.0821.9529.35 6辽宁201418002.2716383.253441.05495.2925.22464.89 6辽宁201517336.3615387.243284.78563.6224.85440.86 6辽宁201616943.714806.82921.04714.337.15505.78 7吉林20045715.025432336.682.9410.697吉林20056802.486458.15419.67108.5213.027吉林20067548.837445.25359.4187.739.987吉林20077846.567935.75547.3582.6114.427吉林20088367.428371.34576.8660.4515.897吉林20098588.918896.59648.1468.1716.427吉林20109582.6610087.31712.8263.815.65 5.32 7吉林201111035.2911909.25861.35 4.8617.42 6.81 7吉林201211082.6712187.99825.37 5.0212.627.02 7吉林201310413.7410502.45728.94483.1511.7335.85 7吉林201410379.3410453.85677.49638.327.710.13 7吉林20159805.319698.71557.12430.86 6.647吉林20169416.849268.82426.62425.067.438黑龙江20047954.988949.8760.83372.88黑龙江20058559.7310050.95938.08526.918黑龙江20069025.0410425.961142.99626.878黑龙江20079852.6411316.611438.44776.4716.168黑龙江200811203.8712891.451822.12895.8431.258黑龙江200911050.1312926.132053.43888.132.18黑龙江201012219.1314983.072165.471220.928.21301.58 8黑龙江201113200.0316316.112024.131063.2917.94342.51 8黑龙江201213964.9217038.521908.5999.4923.551067.12 8黑龙江201313266.8115324.121675.38922.423.191192.03 8黑龙江201413595.5314632.221545.68891.4324.041034.43 8黑龙江201513432.8514592.211361.5732.1714.02629.95 8黑龙江201614034.3915267.95936.21805.2627.36567.35 9上海20045144.3240081125.687.01 3.689上海20055324.524128.731160.55 1.5333.719上海20065143.094033.331106.92 2.849上海20075259.534052.761201.03 5.749上海20085463.914269.671183.211.049上海20095305.174185.851108.0511.279上海20105875.524795.531059.59.8210.679上海20116141.954990.961123.867.5919.549上海20125703.224645.081032.76 6.4618.929上海20135681.194830.93821.81 4.1224.339上海20144895.784128.5742.09 2.522.699上海20154728.133860.25849.1918.699上海20164625.623814.74800.6710.2110江苏200413272.812917700.53117.888.9910江苏200516778.5715814.251242.8185.6418.4910江苏200618427.6817272.081455.17252.819.110江苏200719951.818415.631596.76566.4131.4710江苏200820736.7118974.31830.87651.3638.3210江苏200921003.0219465.222022.17516.2828.2310江苏201023100.4821748.682165.74380.1724.2856.05 10江苏201127363.8325464.952818.85320.8921.13239.49 10江苏201227762.3625402.23268.9371.4424.4631.49 10江苏201327946.0725333.913419.02350.2926.8711.59 10江苏201426912.6123995.623715.96388.3732.4410江苏201527209.1224189.363701.99411.6239.2910江苏201628048.1324894.913398.92734.5841.0511浙江20048368.1827091.8126.5711浙江20059680.89583.8596.93140.0211浙江200611334.4311240.8799.17 2.46114.3711浙江200713024.1212914.78115.247.04109.0311浙江200813040.9412840.17215.83 3.32106.0211浙江200913276.1613076.91221.13 5.74120.5211浙江201013949.8613592.67363.6510.17134.6235.24 11浙江20111477614382.45401 2.37151.5325.24 11浙江201214373.5213957.66420.61 1.52159.4227.34 11浙江201314161.2613730.13423.98 1.16162.1417.66 11浙江201413824.3713425.21400.270.65206.22 2.15 11浙江201513826.0713420.01406.280.55295.57 1.9 11浙江201613948.4913671.08261.4116.94332.77 2.2 12安徽20047904.067859687.9445462212安徽20058339.648500.41752.82771.4858012安徽20068830.529158.78732.07603.29500.712安徽20079783.749834939.29899.32446.2112安徽200811377.111368.21200.271139.1212安徽200912666.413029.11175.361430.1212安徽201013375.713706.451262.741738.7613.11247.23 12安徽201114538.3115050.831286.852013.8419.99195.97 12安徽201214704.2517058.291280.93348.9917.55314.51 12安徽201315665.0818310.541381.87322.0919.41336.9 12安徽201415786.9818599.461446.49421.8117.82403.12 12安徽201515671.3218234.631421.46413.0416.37386.87 12安徽201615728.6817618.931341.32524.83158.6419.07 13福建20043806.123718.581.4 6.213福建20054857.134733.76127.727.4413福建20065395.085256.34120.57 4.0248.5313福建20076117.156013.64117.34 3.4781.913福建20086595.886431128.12 1.3580.2113福建20097109.256898.14152.57086.2613福建20107026.246805.98195.850.8798.5134.67 13福建20118713.758566.19198.180.7119.123 13福建20128484.878252.66255.09 1.1329.7913福建20138078.647905.19217.57 1.1526.2713福建20148198.37970.51264.95 3.673013福建20157659.947454.72247.59 1.9931.7613福建20166826.56668.88156.3763.173014江西20043943.913621.2530.18118.96202.0214江西20054242.93815.07611.9899.41249.6714江西20064592.264235.82641.98163.77247.9714江西20075169.994727.99735.01173.93224.7114江西20085267.454924.65704.77169.74226.7914江西20095356.114820.83862.54153.97224.3714江西20106246.245689.5935.78168.95222.6575.22 14江西20116988.416261.661090138.35158.2249.27 14江西20126801.856048.631115.24161.46166.5867.68 14江西20137254.696573.061138.01164.73177.8373.25 14江西20147477.316768.081202.67176.51183.4362.34 14江西20157698.246979.621137.14147.3999.8564.37 14江西20167617.596781.411036.86151.36100.6459.21 15山东200418270.0820856.31619.27824.0929.8115山东200525247.9128212.192260.11155.0431.0615山东200629001.2531409.813368.32758.32211.5615山东200731702.7834285.544175.031054.44196.5915山东200834389.6135061.664707.441564.85366.3415山东200934795.1736740.85105.861793.46470.0515山东201037327.8938490.245533.331813.73593.941079.63 15山东201138920.5340588.756190.462053.05656.71172.52 15山东201240232.841294.946303.633103.351059.17764.04 15山东201337683.4437751.956790.4902.091397.33892.11 15山东201439561.7338706.527151.1928.491414.27690.1 15山东201540926.9440502.436637.6936.651393.17686.08 15山东201640939.239871.196126.781451.081223.36639.72 16河南200414937.6416554.3866.57222.160.0416河南200518467.8920215.521031.55341.3822.5316河南200621002.8223752.931188.09305.685116河南200723170.4926570.571523.37244.8966.9216河南200823867.5227060.122032.11218.9560.8116河南200924445.4229411.422168.46220.767.516河南20102605029816.14395.11417.35103.5298.73 16河南201128373.8433389.594247.25552.95219.92402.32 16河南201225240.3230805.543121.62240.59192.84270.66 16河南201325058.1428113.014621.041896.4432.46305.2 16河南201424249.8826934.325031.541987.7443.91224.66 16河南201523719.9425808.484978.991658.4348.08255.27 16河南201623226.5225965.663504.052064.14375.81188.85 17湖北20048053.717375.2678.517湖北20058652.647689.66940.08 2.917湖北20069651.648587.781076.74 3.02 1.817湖北200710534.629306.91177.34 5.246.4417湖北200810196.088949.241165.75 5.7780.5617湖北200911099.759818.561198.86 4.5481.8717湖北201013470.0611899.261465.9536.4768.38171.93 17湖北201115805.3214065.81618.3649.2777.57157.2 17湖北201215799.3614165.191507.3246.0292.7156.26 17湖北201312166.7210466.211562.85§6.00113.2756.54 17湖北201411887.8310265.061512.1247.92110.3781.29 17湖北201511765.9110170.131490.6946.78120.3564.88 17湖北201611685.8810265.611253.29134.1191.2146.72 18湖南20046039.795650.3454.4127.8911.0918湖南20058739.298146.98782.3440.6268.7518湖南20069438.518843.64857.23116.51249.0318湖南200710277.399628.52959.51122.3258.2418湖南200810169.019012.74960.24118.72763.4418湖南200910751.419602.81106.14195.81795.6618湖南201011323.3310448.51216.54265.04611.8767.24 18湖南201113005.7512076.621556.29279.63691.8587.57 18湖南201212083.7111598.591256.97253.2541.6132.31 18湖南201311223.8410969.331268.77205.6426.66166.45 18湖南201410899.5110461.511248.42202.31471.49117.34 18湖南201511142.2610315.051260.43208.25517.43153.84 18湖南201611443.5310840.48913.97198.92553.99181.77 19广东20048790.248628.2161.8219.3531.2819广东20059942.379683.05230.0812.3534.2819广东200611125.9810776.02306.5213.58201.4219广东200712593.9712064.96264.9115.53404.7319广东200813298.1612661.63308.7316.43452.0119广东200913647.2612508.9696.2118.43472.9919广东201015983.6214488.431176.1518.43344.78307 19广东201118439.3717099.561015.5517.52329.83321.65 19广东201217633.9516303.91070.8 2.56326.04359.67 19广东201317106.7815967.26895.0422.15308.79459.44 19广东201417013.7115923.69921.8922.68313.5435.11 19广东201516587.3215473.23991.7624.7294.27363.27 19广东201616135.2915308.51678.7246.97330.55371.46 20广西20043366.713107.6253.05 4.35 1.7420广西20053733.993380.67350.42 2.730.1720广西20064172.863786.73376.23 2.810.320广西20074772.144368.95383.739.5712.7820广西20084676.334194.92463.7 6.3313.1720广西20095199.114667.54520.76 4.3414.9320广西20106206.825633.45575.85 5.4126.1217.81 20广西20117032.896390.04626.78 3.7312.34 4.75 20广西20127263.76645.06608.99 2.96 6.69 3.27 20广西20137344.116641.83702.160.06 3.7620广西20146796.516081.14709.12 1.988.4120广西20156046.715398.87673.63 2.45 5.10.97 20广西20166517.775839.51676.9220.59 4.5621海南2004477.34477.30.0521海南2005341.6341.621海南2006332.23327.93 4.321海南2007414.08411.65 2.4321海南2008471.95456.3610.9 4.6921海南2009536.89531.59 5.321海南2010647.2643.37 3.8321海南2011815.47815.440.0321海南2012930.62930.6221海南20131008.781008.7821海南20141018.31018.321海南20151071.921071.9221海南20161015.311015.3122重庆20042904.382850.3253.56187.12 5.3322重庆20053335.23226.74308.82236.817.8422重庆20063734.63703.91419.24197.147.6622重庆20074078.694152.36461.81205.92 5.4522重庆20085272.735483.17502.09246.4810.3722重庆20095781.726294.44509.99213.63 3.6722重庆20106396.96475.451100.03395.53 4.95608.02 22重庆20117189.257007.391350.44451.239.55540.83 22重庆20126749.856559.561331.24508.7414.33215.65 22重庆20135794.475815.481281.83212.0218.86225.57 22重庆20146095.785935.061439.52462.0922.41282.85 22重庆20156047.195882.181331.64536.1824.76190.05 22重庆20165674.376065.36186.34891.8318.38113.76 23四川20048188.688135.7990.11360.2223四川20057791.937552.431018.54260.8223四川20068532.718387.741143.1330.78-0.0123四川20079450.119640.751296.08493.88-0.0123四川200810727.4110904.621316.28504.9-0.0123四川200912147.3512128.691538.98819.6259.9223四川201011520.411505.961820.24867.5862.05209.33 23四川201111454.3411408.912016.44464.75100.13213.18 23四川201211872.211876.913149.82876.9162.01354.57 23四川201311678.5511710.362725.761187.6224.5322.61 23四川201411045.3911053.713042.511193.7936.18332.49 23四川20159288.98636.692589.151168.8341.51388.88 23四川20168869.498191.42325.162024.1469.06516.81 24贵州20047999.148186.9351.4514.444324贵州20058651.449189.71322.9519.0540.8624贵州20069938.9910454.81525.5756.0661.4324贵州200710636.3511270.23710.5854.1871.4724贵州20089732.1810810.68866.6842.5672.4124贵州200910912.4712295.38930.4921.4269.8424贵州201010908.112970.95911.322859.7838.57 24贵州201112084.9713694.35851.471308.1461.284.94 24贵州201213327.6314847.691029.221419.51122.42105 24贵州201313650.7416336.051269.451643.5335.8789.03 24贵州201413117.616287.91204.691816.1135.42115.37 24贵州201512833.4916192.03903.482323.7532.2848.21 24贵州201613642.7517293.86821.153411.65 3.9760.16 25云南20043062.983012250.61128.87 6.5125云南20056681.536550.88689.59168.8710.2925云南200674827355.17862.54177.4923.7725云南20077620.457454.361149.1275.7520.0125云南20087915.697852.661210.93115.2421.3825云南20098885.6185221474.56111.5121.5425云南20109349.49027.61674.57115.5470.0165.45 25云南20119745.089815.47642.7517.6481.36 25云南20129850.19843.412352.95248.9621.7437.59 25云南20139783.099680.512605.67331.430.7429.2925云南20148674.679123.261669.0299.4126.0626.3 25云南20157712.858840.021272.1788.3920.3423.22 25云南20167461.188749.391172.21140.8515.6721.5 26陕西20044958.064593.2588.936.7540.1226陕西20056049.125518.97760.9141.11 3.3726陕西20067400.17178.87540.790.74 2.7126陕西20077893.757737.81769.23 4.4152.426陕西20088941.318928.99582.711.458.9426陕西20099496.59799.9640.6410.7426陕西201011638.5312085.35861.5113.51 4.46369.95 26陕西201113317.9213639.691216.181476.18 4.58268.17 26陕西201215773.6116542.581470.522088.64 3.3313.88 26陕西201317247.9521091.331494.341783.61 1.76356.11 26陕西201418375.3422155.541428.291751.84 1.63359.48 26陕西201518373.6124309.571343.611447.10.87317.23 26陕西201619670.7528290.61178.11440.49 3.24277.32 27甘肃20043494.823323.2199.51 2.8951.6527甘肃20053750.673424.5371.720.1753.5527甘肃20063959.093547.86439.330.1462.2827甘肃20074455.194257.93481.670.262.2827甘肃20084682.874321.34444.16627甘肃20094478.54077.63423.7467.7527甘肃20105389.575126.28309.05 1.0194.2342.32 27甘肃20116303.376039.24339.2899.141.61 27甘肃20126557.536324.16381.170.139346.54 27甘肃20136541.076502.68539.320.1680.0653.93 27甘肃20146715.876562.97698.51681.9461.34 27甘肃20156557.066369.91618.0783.5658.4 27甘肃20166377.526090.84598.7465100.3961.64 28青海2004680.05672.6 5.25 1.740.528青海2005698.97692.557.090.3328青海2006912.39872.4138.190.23 1.5628青海20071058.191006.02100.510.02 1.6228青海20081316.451305.91102.89 3.74 1.1228青海20091309.541468.16100.587.910.7128青海20101270.681458.4498.988.50.860.77 28青海20111508.222021.55116.060.4628青海20121859.122412.16149.080.5228青海20132073.152988.07150.010.528青海20141816.512534.6832.23 1.4228青海20151508.121513.71 2.50.2328青海20161962.431902.148.4596.0629宁夏20042761.93222.9204.24135.5829宁夏20053248.933850.48229.13130.78 2.6829宁夏20063489.614232.15169.9139.73 2.6529宁夏20074135.315268.29248.08169.21 3.8729宁夏20084286.975534.24252.0182 3.229宁夏20094758.536358.59425.44106.668.3229宁夏20105764.927681.13554.9594.37 3.49230.79 29宁夏20117946.9610000.67529.14100.64 1.39183.36 29宁夏20128055.379293.82689.71404.120.94130.78 29宁夏20138533.519474.91940.74265.240.78103.18 29宁夏201488579867.291008.4231.02 1.8159.6 29宁夏20158907.379745.16931.6156.32 1.61101.4929宁夏20168665.099332.3794.85688.34 3.92176.69 30新疆20043631.793633.6109.5810.5130新疆20053859.913842.64186.4511.9919.3230新疆20064436.214390.56248.5246.430新疆20074943.694909.82285.4929.830新疆20085708.565605.88382.2529.5730新疆20097417.717306.55444.9718.0330新疆20108106.358079.8595.8914.07 2.85 30新疆20119745.089815.47642.7517.6481.36 30新疆201212027.6112058.38682.167.48160.14 30新疆201314205.514068.53908.2138.83 5.1830新疆201416088.0316048.12102333.2930新疆201517359.2817569.3944.0526.930新疆20161898519056.42772.17166.41 5.5186.68焦炭焦炉煤气高炉煤气转炉煤气其他煤气其他焦化产品油品合计原油(万吨)(亿立方米)(亿立方米)(亿立方米)(亿立方米)(万吨)(万吨)(万吨) 455.7315.46124.9716.62809.35809.35 397.415.03117.71 5.431111.66799.6 348.6210.91104.457.541205.34796.12 358.198.31101.3926.811326.45950.91 232.878.162.330.571371.541116.76 211.977.9561.7529.521387.421162.93 220.457.8557.85 3.380.610.211454.621116.2933.280.72 6.40.741534.9732.27 3.58 1.390.641533.421075.770.7901480.9870.920.641538.241034.620.441583.81991.540.211578.47821328.047.477.6724.07786.57 329.757.3315.37.62765.26863.14 541.17.416.38 3.72733.14900.49 667.75 6.3527.3413.94768.65950.14 719.23 6.0973.4717.74864.89790.33 868.65 6.11113.9318.67928.06844.64 663.91 5.84106.51 6.51187.831282.671566.79 709.48 6.2142.297.98183.761516.351754.02 882.72 5.98127.037.12205.341618.781544.62 955.48 6.77199.3612.2268.871542.281759.15 954.39 6.72197.8311.4875.41615.261603.17 904.69 6.04173.5510.0378.211731.721616.72 887.297.93149.5711.972.981777.821433.6 3243.4634.65185.5242.63723.73939.39 4498.2443.47198.4943.181031.781003.29 5460.5554.94235.0777.91161.751046.69 5127.3371.56386.16163.541133.251124.77 6007.6989.08340.77205.161135.971357.63 6208.8392.73408.03188.551096.911379.12 7319106.431021.3453.657.31161.531423.91396.65 8399.88129.11898.5253.889.06242.621582.421564.68 8402.28134.51948.0882.6110118.461619.671547.61 8339.85143.482056.9116.43 5.64114.871488.91385.89 8127.2130.071972.8136.96 1.24161.171423.121356.61 7726.45122.382153.43132.129.97170.571631.631666.82 8079.49120.452370.25137.458.97283.181788.491761.93 2724.3135.08144.1972301.020 2139.9143.91161.79134.17368.170 2417.14171.4130.8160.17410.770 2526.37177.76131.06145.2435.742358.76172.81129.41112.91763.942438.39148.52128.12100.81826.872589.22160.72116.267.3610.16143.66754.182558.55186.8267.07 1.0216.83178.33758.652938.55167.4371.07 1.2715.6152.9772.62145.59178.03374.8914.8211.79158.72783.31215.87 2177.69170.99361.815.118.46157.99746.910 2083.45160.06269.219.29 5.42167.03774.940 2198.1159.51268.1710.9621.9167.13802.76577.9812.34107.48.98480.95132.19 814.0315.3120.9937.19636.53131.83 1008.3315.93139.46140.97759.93139.2 1213.1220.98171.2199.11841.63142.82 1380.6423.6251.53268.481012.34189.25 1554.1233.55270.13322.911093.03191.76 1416.8731.8251.812.67 3.16198.241160.81140.74 1559.2147.95263.9313.21 3.05204.641348.43118.66 1411.8645.64161.149.1 1.97160.51277.7887.02 1800.6546.96161.0910.65 1.58302.261020.51411.07 1493.6649.48165.099.780.24246.5967.44411.36 1532.7446.84198.9210.440.86322.29869.24383.67 1635.445.02208.5714.890.9339.82895.58419.55 821.0235.91336.6132.991713.085216.67 1703.4165.3339.167.432209.165410.89 1959.9355.01555.5230.462451.815555.04 2298.8355.51613.8935.572452.245893.46 2440.8263.17591.7636.022616.575945.19 2795.1969.29708.5539.472766.115873.05 3162.8871.77664.8725.4711.7740.763815.556558.91 3386.3676.48229.649.0212.6446.84403.436705.53 3442.0880.69221.6810.7513.9358.184993.17000.91 3201.3181.2761.2246.1911.3853.054074.396480.07 3296.9481.38764.7251.9211.660.24083.526364.79 3187.5680.71782.0655.7514.2759.984470.366439.87 2993.0681.92842.8959.167.1847.424441.577057 249.997.8439.28 3.66582.68833.01 336.9214.3360.88 4.36872.62968.36 367.238.4455.77 4.351009.01954.94 408.4111.8553.93 4.21177.37986.08 541.8214.2667.50.61832.31915.24 593.114.7172.90.86845.39851.89 640.6114.4978.36 3.7 1.65994.12939.97 757.7112.73107.87 6.430.641079.151064.58 670.112.64115.357.320.721002.2977.05 719.7711.58122.099.2320.221019.851002.13 664.7213.71129.369.4112.061013.5999.37 532.8212.41116.947.759.12949.56960.34 477.69.59101.577.449.15973.871051.2997.34 3.0522.18.481405.611616.07 142.06 5.7139.288.261495.071785.01 210.7 4.8623.789.421621.281850.06 226.92 5.6727.6916.291592.861886.02 227.39.7428.0416.051394.341735.97 321.910.2726.1930.21744.282065.13 271.3313.2934.93 1.5323.5949.831891.842106.53 272.7518.2537.83 1.1918.7666.252128.122200.93 331.0921.3134.13 2.0413.6551.652252.232166.48 337.6521.0948.67 3.6612.143.271847.772127.02 194.0718.2842.08 2.6611.0155.62000.312141.97 185.6815.2831.77 2.1115.4150.082032.232123.9 184.199.5625.11 1.712.2731.971914.642210.42 590.6528.51103.9140.312080.171842.29 630.5128.11117.4240.22200.371967655.4623.3109.4738.372698.021832.84 729.724.04123.5554.872879.91719.57 714.4427.03122.6960.852882.531951.55 677.6823.2129.4773.682990.431937.18 717.0827.58106.0312.1916.83110.193297.932126.5 714.1527.9646.49108.723148.042134.69 673.1727.2435.44110.543259.992210.55 640.323.72232.1812.69 6.0890.543396.342611.76 654.8421.18236.0912.69 3.0385.332922242.07 630.7522.84241.8113.060.5282.823460.192526.11 596.9522.89227.5613.8578.373632.982474.23 801.0718.07116.3211.211999.111875.39 1593.1219.05133.3529.522218.512264.76 1844.4926.03243.1447.722249.642302.7 1884.725.03231.853.272354.432454 1888.9527.94286.4354.262401.662313.13 2221.224.26321.362.332639.872661.44 2663.4737.75544.7826.690.5339.062570.292998.55 3151.4744.0458.23100.3329.342572.542981.07 3170.150.0360.0214.420.1334.482934.512947.99 3190.6148.48813.4847.820.3130.452814.23394.78 3408.647.39927.5453.38 1.0237.293047.683511.4 3588.6143.09926.261.19 1.153.753087.83823.2 3840.2144.16985.9862.95 1.1462.263178.094092.04 149.21 2.41 1.2444.391692.091853.44 163.59 2.3310.15 4.731931.922113.04 317.76 2.26 4.690.071932.832114.73 326.4 2.3515.110.11976.532248.73 485.98 4.7319.580.512067.132287.35 504.51 4.7733.43 1.472311.892505.8 443.09 6.7287.67 5.640.18 2.292518.362835.41 470 6.9866.78 2.870.22 2.082708.392939.77 451.427.13152.668.950.22 1.882750.82732.59 446.18 6.94154.899.240.23 3.452813.922853.65 465.077167.4110.990.22 1.782781.412731.81 427.59 6.69152.6611.060.217.692970.212846.84 329.47 4.44103.429.680.1920.722909.032667.35 544.2913.490.1 2.7441.06419.79 538.3917.6731.7632.41476.35414.49 652.2216.8625.4532.11532.31445.4 809.722.844.6238.64563.09451.08 851.2224.86111.23577.98426.34 856.2828.190.317.93605.71454.13 910.1724.98100.41 1.0911.2614.2637.77477.57 948.1226.0313.388.43707.45484.13 996.4426.1418.24 3.4712.6410.12992.27421.38 1049.4125.6302.3618.6412.2711.861177.46551.67 1064.7324.63310.3318.1312.4611.121310.58749.22 1164.7725.03306.320.4111.389.251405.42690.59 1164.6428.66329.9523.939.8812.91452.14539.21 205.91 2.07807.14390.55 280.93 3.7655.91 4.65934.49348.4 299.59 3.3548.63 4.57972.34375.03 356.02 3.5661.48 5.251093.63352.33368.04 4.4666.04 4.471058.16310.96 653.08 4.4765.68 4.781104.3706.01 684.54 5.7160.91 4.30.63 6.51575.371141.74 728.65 6.1160.7 4.8 1.33 6.881649.37963 650 6.8885.97 5.39 1.018.271699.351104.55 655.38 5.8111.978.060.728.621809.011007.11 674.69 6.43126.948.960.612.322261.592044.45 625.6 5.3147.2211.220.7392111.972164.85 608.65 4.66146.3612.10.957.572074.672089.38 379.5710.4958.220.38398363.41 452.8610.6271.260.15511.29368.02 527.2613.8783.78 4.3544.73417.99 597.6515.18192.227.77544.04396.47 581.421.24172.339.32554.62411 710.4125.22254.869.71543.49451.68 772.6127.1648.56 1.51 1.7115.84713.89469.92 872.3220.7714.89 1.85 1.47 5.42727.32432.77 878.6622.521.39 4.210.27 3.05779.82508.22 854.9320.86342.3223.96 4.59919.12520.28 871.1323.98343.424.03 4.65940.66472.24 891.724.76340.2224.7612.161017.97555.96 839.8221.75339.1125.5413.661048.29725.75 1235.522.6318.9636.212021.483196.39 1992.5738.277.615.883279.653300.36 1714.0342.8661.9716.783444.233878.27 2593.4449.6335.0916.783685.064075.67 2611.935.5630.0554.973648.654626.97 2922.5734.3983.3766.854129.465142.9 3067.5851.29312.9 6.4884.284691.485593.4 3314.7765.72190.4520.0419.63114.275039.165826.37 3506.0570.28291.9825.4820.91115.135178.576271.5 3680.2970.92470.8931.5625.75114.83901.176766.01 3761.5178.32453.432.81 1.32129.243648.137815.9 3703.5574.8515.4339.48 4.1898.664042.328607.02 3718.3680.19562.239.3 5.12109.294361.210203.42 818.017.8975.1813.57825.48704.54 994.378.91110.9914.37902.12668.82 1192.2312.04105.21 3.27901.36696.57 1437.0516.6158.6857980.37713.83 1488.9828.83208.3720.191036.22704.22 1441.7431.07256.8633.361019.36785.82 1743.4461.92246.8 3.5996.1728.91334.16835.07 2052.6334.3229.6119.4836.841524.78874.63 2221.9326.44203.23 5.6291.8545.681692.61010.02 1817.4723.13264.268.4832.5165.491951.1963.57 2700.9432.44284.7911.939.9169.921978.04845.17 2843.5231.94286.9811.8445.9691.462100.77847.26 3045.954.63304.0112.9839.69127.342158.88707.29 560.3619.81 1.2620.471027.67754.01 685.4731.216 6.611252.95822.13 752.1322.524.7162.421387.95851.1 82027.6221.8533.821648.21910 952.2730.6632.5936.591807.53884.26 910.7634.951.644.961914.41946.61120.8339.58333.1518.248.1430.281760.321033.86 1172.7242.05360.0319.62 4.817.591851.581026.23 1113.8539.5338.7718.84 3.7412.961987.6947.74 1114.3938.47338.5819.54 3.78 4.392268.351176.72 1124.438.13330.6720.4149.142505.151290.87 1030.0137.8315.5320.290.5248.572551.161299.01 1095.3135.69316.2522.140.531.682529.391239.61 553.3710.897.578.1656.24615.79 756.5811.3126.3718.53858.04660.86 823.1212.8648.825.68908.45574.49 915.8914.382.6721.381017.12671.67 998.913.31150.4724.27935.91614.11 1011.9216.15165.7825.641042.19565.77 1089.1913.13173.0810.45 1.8824.651145.84587.6 851.6520.36188.139.94 2.124.431234.55766.03 1072.1314.79186.249.43 1.2825.761302.74926 1075.8214.91175.4510.890.0125.191520.2946.54 1040.2915.120.1524.091559.52801.03456.841.38 1145.0515.34181.9312.4424.341734.45878.46 960.519.56343.4511.8411844.2841.6 278.03 5.4669.35 2.74132.452391.35 300.16 4.3779.14 3.14968.122388.37 410.78 4.12106.53 3.385224.172805.71 460.97 3.19108.56 2.385354.82940.1 449.6 3.82114 6.6253513046.21 466.43 3.92114.289.785277.043709.44 485.97 6.487.49 3.6319.6511.585563.444455.31 552.13 6.94133.17 4.6418.2510.655462.214403.37 545.5 6.51182.857.9718.5511.255481.094511.51 585.02 5.9190.029.5521.469.845178.254729.48 558.05 6.4182.6311.5523.210.185319.574765.76 543.028.29175.9314.4229.067.085619.244899.6 782.4618.04263.8217.9421.437.065942.095044.45 344.16665.947.98526.8282.36 441.956132.2614.56621.697.71 451.2610.02103.32657.92118.21 520.4210.41107.9716.78152.98 580.0312.78124.88 4.13704.04133.3 627.8818.68153.9310.89769.79163.03 682.0716.26176.647.4328.647.25890.03396.02 740.2518.57149.917.4332.722.521018.841064.06 805.119.05175.99.2740.71 3.591131.751473 974.522.67237.0613.3137.56 1.27998.71296.13 1018.6525.2276.6618.0341.45 1.211109.341390.47 1000.1223.32267.6120.249.59 1.471227.61428.77 1120.9626.41266.7119.551.3825.811299.321340.433.51181.2413.871.61165.2611.4618.65218.31230.122.99280.13816.2814.88331.14796.8317.76362.58835.680.05391.3859.170.02402.44915.190.05410.1930.810.04387.49737.650.04418.82942.52453.061116.11448.561118.66 191.420.69 3.11 2.77264.40.48 3880.54 3.21 3.51284.38 2.86 329.150.59 4.79 3.51319.62 3.17 323.38 1.539.3810.6374.450.13 342.447.6163.0910.97409.680.02 334.17.4363.8610.33422.80.01 299.47 1.627.190.180.3816.26505.35377.79 1.7442.530.3319621.72503.7711.0492.88 3.20.3215.87636.5208.8212.499.88 3.0814.77706.16161.7 320.438.8183.56 2.2513.23704.330 269.918.368.78 2.788.52793.060 384.31 4.8744.11 1.87 5.18864.08813.32616.49114.99 894.54675.05140.81 1003.67-0.01-0.01-0.01832.54174.94 1144.050.824.78-0.01972.88239.95 1119.1-0.01-0.01-0.011134.57285.49 1121.991309.2315.68 1353.6433.09243.91 5.88 1.1227.221497.38351.76 1438.8536.29250.3310.21 1.4918.541824.5361.75 1562.8541.28252.4911.75 1.5766.091960.54351.47 1760.1350.28315.7215.070.91376.722395306.49 1863.8846.83318.8415.590.46449.432724.13865.4 1853.3141.36299.6614.58496.573029.06989.56 1636.3639.53308.1214.37465.353137.38902.77 269.069.11200.950 333.867.09237.420 477.057.83281.72486.0610.85 6.46367.25450.979.62 1.78 5.11431.15367.7911.52 3.4 5.78432.91380.4412.4755.03 2.11 1.77 6.12493.81402.8812.5167 2.73 2.027.23545.94382.2614.383.45 4.09 1.3727.65561.89423.4616.0177.22 4.29 2.5621.2658.16375.3113.1870.44 3.210.621.08683.030 310.4212.3953.09 3.530.0125.33842.40.02 253.4211.3355.85 4.44 4.3827.57944.740.02 1046.32 5.5922.828.04176.660.06 1223.368.8464.3617.62457.910.07 1252.017.8568.1819.82520.610.07 1377.397.86101.2816.37602.190.11 1331.4316.53106.3232.4656.570.06 1276.3317.94144.8625.63697.870.07 1231.2122.08141.71 4.650.2836.89899.110.06 880.2324.0436.96 2.40.5811.01970.642598.46 1338.8720.87192.41 6.87 1.2446.271069.870.02 1347.5720.36196.949.960.9562.45996.310.03。
能源平衡表解读
能源平衡表解读全国（地区）能源平衡表的组成及其分析（说明：⽬前出版的能源平衡表列项要更丰富）⼀、全国（地区）能源平衡表及其表式全国（地区）能源平衡表，是⽤来反映全国或⼀个地区（省、市、县）的能源系统流程情况的平衡表，如下图所⽰：能源平衡表（实物量） 1. 年初库存量 2. ⼀次能源⽣产量 3. 回收能4. 外省（区、市）调⼊量5. 进⼝量6. 我轮、机在国外加油量7. 本省（区、市）调出量（-）8. 出⼝量（-）9. 外轮、机在我国加油量（_） 10.年末库存量（-）⼆、加⼯转换投⼊（-）产出（+） 1. ⽕⼒发电 2. 供热 3. 煤炭洗选 4. 炼焦 5. 炼油 6. 制⽓其中：焦炭再投⼊（-） 7. 煤制品加⼯三、损失量其中：运输和输配损失四、终端消费量（⼀）第⼀产业其中：农、林、牧、渔业 02 03 04 05 0607 08 0910 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 2526 （⼆）第⼆产业27 1.⼯业其中：⽤作原材料2.建筑业（三）第三产业28 29 30 311.交通运输、仓储和邮电通讯32业332.批发、零售业和住宿、餐34饮业353.其他36（四）⽣活消费371.城镇2.农村五、平衡差额（+、-）续表说明：平衡关系⑴列平衡关系：第1栏等于2、3、4、5栏的代数和；第9栏等于10、11、12、13、14、15、16、18栏的代数和。
（2）⾏平衡关系：37=01 + 12-21-23 ;第01 ⾏等于02、03、04、05、06、07、08、09、10、11 ⾏的代数和；第12 ⾏等于13、14、15、16、17、18、20 ⾏的代数和；23=24+26+30+34; 18>19;21>22; 24>25; 26=27+29; 27>28; 30=31+32+33 ; 34=35+36。
5.炼油186.制⽓19其中：焦炭再投⼊（-）207.煤制品加⼯21三、损失量22其中：运输和输配损失23五、终端消费量24（⼀）第⼀产业25其中：农、林、牧、渔业26（⼆）第⼆产业271.⼯业28其中：⽤作原材料292.建筑业30（三）第三产业311.交通运输、仓储和邮电通讯32业332.批发、零售业和住宿、餐34饮业353.其他36（四）⽣活消费371.城镇2.农村五、平衡差额什、-）说明：平衡关系（1）列平衡关系：第23栏等于01?17、18、20、22栏的代数和；第24栏等于01?17、19、21、22栏的代数和。
中国统计年鉴数据处理：3-20 资金流量表(金融交易,仅全国指标,方便2000-2017多年数据对比)_
5684 68
2052 -770
42759 -21150
42482 121970
2086 49603 16746 29513
-48 3392 -1466
629 -3561 -18219
8256
19914
1371
55807
643
-128
55807
537
79488
2293 548
11358 2145
-14982
881 9
654 2545
4
6881 -229 6179
42294 9
3260 14581 21754
-148 24731 66081 18239
1916 6179 -14982
13021 729738
金融债券 中央银行债券 企业债券 股票 证券投资基金份额 库存现金 中央银行贷款 其他 (净) 直接投资 其他对外债权债务 国际储备资产 国际收支错误与遗漏
净金融投资 资金运用合计 资金来源合计
通货 存款
活期存款 定期存款 财政存款 外汇存款 其他存款 证券公司客户保证金
贷款 短期贷款与票据融资 中长期贷款 外汇贷款
1227
3963 5089 5506
2607 9922
-7661 6881 1310
818 11358
549
-14982
38816 9
-1544 2339 5120 -148 24731 31765
-1539 6179
-16007 124237
458 83242 41300 31191
5079 5671 -1609
资金来源合计 通货 存款 活期存款 定期存款 财政存款 外汇存款 其他存款 证券公司客户保证金 贷款 短期贷款与票据融资 中长期贷款 外汇贷款 委托贷款 其他贷款 未贴现的银行承兑汇票 保险准备金 金融机构往来
2017年石油行业分析报告
2017年石油行业分析报告2017年1月目录一、原油定价机制及基本分析框架 (6)（一）原油定价机制发展历程 (6)（二）原油价格影响因素 (7)二、减产协议虽不是护身符，但符合各方利益，原油供需再平衡加速到来 (9)（一）OPEC与非OPEC达产联合减产协议，符合各方利益 (9)1、本次减产总量约176 万桶/天，占世界产量1.8% (9)2、产油国财政吃力，油价回升，符合各方利益 (11)（二）全球原油供需再平衡加速到来 (13)1、世界经济走势有所复苏 (13)2、全球原油供给再平衡持续改善 (14)3、低油价影响，全球上游投资减少，恢复需要时间 (17)三、美国页岩油产量为最大不确定因素，但边际成本有支撑 (18)（一）美国原油产量下降、储量下降，破产页岩油企业增多 (18)1、页岩油产量衰竭快，维持产量需持续投资，美国原油产量及储量下滑 (18)2、低油价造成众多页岩油企业破产 (19)（二）美国页岩油边际成本支撑 (20)四、其它重要影响因素 (21)（一）美元指数 (21)（二）原油库存 (22)（三）钻机数 (23)（四）黑天鹅事件 (23)五、预计2017年油价中枢震荡向上至55美元/桶以上，机遇大于挑战 (24)（一）2017年油价中枢向上 (24)（二）油价上涨，受益行业梳理 (25)（三）投资策略 (27)1、上游油气生产企业 (27)2、综合油气及炼化公司 (28)3、产品涨价、盈利改善 (29)（1）涤纶产业链 (29)（2）“丙烷-丙烯-聚丙烯”产业链 (30)（3）丙烯酸及酯供需改善，盈利回升 (31)4、油田服务及工程技术类企业 (32)2014 年7 月以来，国际油价暴跌，持续2 年多之久，自2016 年11 月30 日OPEC 及非OPEC 产油国相继达成减产协议，联合减产总量约176万桶/天，占世界产量1.8%，油价趋暖回升。
减产协议虽不是护身符，但符合各方利益，原油供需再平衡有望2017 年加速到来。
2000年全国综合能源平衡统计表
2000年全国综合能源平衡统计表
2000年全国综合能源平衡统计表是一种描述全国能源供应及消费情况的表格，这些数据通常由政府或专业机构收集和发布。
一般来说，能源平衡表会包括以下几个主要部分：•能源供应总量：这部分会显示国内生产的能源总量，包括各种能源类型（如煤炭、石油、天然气、核能、可再生能源等）的产量。
•能源进口量：显示从其他国家或地区进口的能源量。
•能源出口量：显示向其他国家或地区出口的能源量。
•年初和年末库存差额：显示一年内能源库存的变化量。
•能源消费总量：显示全国各行业和居民生活消费的能源总量。
这部分通常会进一步细分为工业、交通运输、居民生活等不同领域的消费量。
•能源损失量：在能源的生产、加工、转换、运输和消费过程中，由于技术和管理原因导致的能源损失量。
对于每个部分，都会列出具体的数量（通常以万吨标准煤或亿立方米等为单位），并可能包括与上一年相比变化率。
注意：以上数据仅为示例，不代表实际数据。
2017年石油价格行业分析报告
2017年石油价格行业分析报告2017年8月出版文本目录1、为什么要研究石油库存？ (5)1.1、库存研究是把握原油市场供需变化的钥匙 (5)1.2、库存去化是下半年油价的核心因素 (5)2、如何监测和研究库存？ (8)2.1、北美原油库存：高频数据，对短期油价影响最大 (9)2.2、OECD 库存：反映全球原油库存的首选指标 (12)2.3、海上浮油库存：漂浮的库存，兼具投机和储存双重属性 (14)3、历史的视角：原油库存周期如何影响油价？ (15)3.1、不同时间段的 WTI 油价与美国商业原油库存的关系？ (15)3.2、油价反弹期的库存和油价：去库存“三段论” (17)3.3、本轮油价反弹仍处于徘徊阶段，等待去库存化的确认 (18)4、全球库存有望在今年底降至合理区间 (20)5、油价预测：短期压力仍存，下一阶段受“库存去化”支撑 (23)5.1、短期油价仍有调整风险，但大幅下跌的概率不大 (23)5.2、下一阶段“库存去化”将是油价的关键因素 (27)6、投资建议 (29)7、附录：如何读懂 EIA 和 OECD 库存？ (30)7.1、美国原油库存拆解 (30)7.2、美国原油商业库存波动分析 (36)7.3、 OECD 国家库存去化大幕开启，预计下半年加速去库存 (40)图表目录图表 1：短期原油价格分析框架 (5)图表 2：OPEC 各成员国减产配额 (6)图表 3：美国原油产量高位企稳（千桶/日） (7)图表 4：主要区块新井边际产油量下降（桶/日） (7)图表 5：主要区块老井衰减加速（千桶/日） (7)图表 6：全球石油库存监测指标一览 (8)图表 7：美国原油库存变动影响因素 (10)图表 8：美国原油消费，进口产量与库存环比变化比较（万桶/天） (10)图表 9：2017 年以来 EIA 商业原油库存与 WTI 波动的关系（万桶） (11)图表 10：IEA 库存公布对当月 Brent 油价的影响 (13)图表 11：油价大跌时远期曲线形成深度 contango (14)图表 12：全球浮式库存量（千桶） (15)图表 13：2003 年 1 月到 2007 年 8 月美国商业原油库存与 WTI 油价关系 (16)图表 14：2014 年 7 月到 2016 年 2 月美国商业原油库存与 WTI 油价关系 (16)图表 15：08 年 9 月到 11 年 12 月剔除季节性因素后库存环比变化与 WTI 油价 (18)图表 16：16 年到 17 年剔除季节性因素后库存环比变化与 WTI 油价 (19)图表 17：OECD 原油库存（百万桶） (20)图表 18：OECD 工业石油总库存（百万桶） (21)图表 19：供需拐点已至，供需缺口继续扩大（百万桶/天） (22)图表 20：我们对 OECD 原油库存预测值（百万桶） (22)图表 21：高盛对 OECD 总油品库存预测值（百万桶） (23)图表 22：17 年美国汽油消费同比下降（千桶/日） (24)图表 23：中国汽油表观消费量一季度同比下降（万吨） (24)图表 24：利比亚与尼日利亚产量提升（百万桶/日） (25)图表 25：美国汽油库存逆季节提升（百万桶） (26)图表 26：3 季度为 OECD 石油总产品需求旺季 (26)图表 27：3 季度为汽油需求季节性峰值 (27)图表 28：机构 5 月底对国际油价的预测（美元/桶） (28)图表 29：核心标的盈利预测 (29)图表 30：美国原油商业库存及构成 (30)图表 31：美国主要原油管道（除阿拉斯加） (31)图表 32：阿拉斯加主要原油管道 (33)图表 33：美国油库和管道中的库存分区分布 (33)图表 34：美国各区活跃炼厂数量 (34)图表 35：美国各区炼油能力 (34)图表 36：美国原油炼厂库存分区分布 (35)图表 37：美国原油商业库存和五年均值水平对比情况（百万桶） (36)图表 38：美国原油生产与库存波动 (37)图表 39：美国原油进口与库存波动 (37)图表 40：美国原油出口与库存波动 (38)图表 41：美国原油消费与库存波动 (39)图表 42：美国原油消费，进口产量与库存环比变化比较（万桶/天） (39)图表 43：近年 OECD 工业库存合计 (40)图表 44：近年 OECD 原油库存合计 (41)图表 45：OECD 原油投入季节波动明显 (41)图表 46：美国原油投入量旺季显著上升 (42)图表 47：十年 OECD 工业库存合计 (43)图表 48：十年 OECD 原油及其制品库存合计 (43)图表 49：欧洲&亚太地区 OECD 国家成品油库存 (44)图表 50：欧洲&亚太地区 OECD 国家原油库存 (44)1、为什么要研究石油库存？1.1、库存研究是把握原油市场供需变化的钥匙原油兼具商品属性和金融属性。