2025年世界经济展望

The world economy in 2025Macro-Economic Projections and the Role of AsiaLionel FontagnéParis School of Economics (Université Paris 1) and CEPIIThe world economy in 2025Lionel FontagnéMotivation• What we don’t know about world trade at the 2025 horizon: • Detailed composition of exports:▫ A given product exported by a given country to a given market ▫ Large churning of exporters ▫ Specialisation by product unpredictable2The world economy in 2025Lionel FontagnéMotivation• Evidence on extensive and intensive margins of world trade at HS6 level▫ Intensive: increase in the value of existing trade flows ▫ Extensive positive: value of new trade flows ▫ Extensive negative: value of disappeared trade flows• 200 countries trading in 5,000 products bilaterally • Overwhelming proportion of zeros • Restriction to cases where a country declares exporting a given product to at least one market3The world economy in 2025Lionel FontagnéMotivation• Intra-EU excluded • 75 million potential trade flows in 1994▫ 3.7 million non zeros• 100 million potential trade flows in 2007▫ 5.5 million non zeros• Corresponding to:▫ 3.3 million new flows… ▫ 1.6 million destroyed flows… ▫ … over the period4The world economy in 2025Lionel FontagnéMotivation• Conclusion▫ Huge uncertainty on detailed trade flows ▫ But 90% of the increase in the value of world trade over the period is in the intensive margin (existing flows)• Bottom line:▫ Detailed evidence can hardly be predicted ▫ But the broad picture can be predicted• Tools available to forecast the intensive margin5The world economy in 2025Lionel FontagnéMotivation• What do we guess about world trade at the 2025 horizon?▫ New big players ▫ Shift of gravity centre of the world economy toward Asia ▫ Profound changes in demand patterns ▫ Changes in relative prices mirroring demand patterns and scarcity issues6The world economy in 2025Lionel FontagnéMotivation• Need to address these macroeconomic issues using a structured representation of the world economy▫ ▫ ▫ ▫ ▫ ▫ ▫ World economy split in regions Economies split in sectors Inter-sectoral relationships Demography Technical progress Resource constraints Behavioural patterns7The world economy in 2025Lionel FontagnéMethodology• General equilibrium▫ All markets represented in a consistent way ▫ Relations between integrated markets ▫ Consistent representation of sectors and regional structures with trade relations ▫ Microeconomic behaviour driving macroeconomic variables ▫ Relative prices variations in response to structural changes driving microeconomic behaviour8The world economy in 2025Lionel FontagnéMethodology• World level▫ Decisions made in the EU impact prices, demand, supply elsewhere ▫ Demand for steel in China impacts profitability of car industry in Europe ▫ Resources constraints are global (energy, other primary resources) ▫ Markets are integrated9The world economy in 2025Lionel FontagnéMethodology• Dynamics▫ Growth depends on:Labour force Investment and capital accumulation Technical progress Resource depletion▫ Economic agents adjust over time their behaviour to signals received10The world economy in 2025Lionel FontagnéMethodology• Beyond terminology a key issue: • Exogenous: provided to the model by external information (e.g. Russian population in 2025) • Endogeneous: determined by the internal consistency of the model (e.g. price for steel in China in 2012)11The world economy in 2025Lionel FontagnéImplementation• Based on simulations performed with Mirage • By Yvan Decreux, Christophe Gouel, Hugo Valin • Mirage:▫ Large scale CGE model of the CEPII ▫ Also used by various international institutions and universities ▫ Relies on GTAP data for economy, ILO data for population etc.12The world economy in 2025Lionel FontagnéImplementation• Assumptions▫ 20 regions of the world eco with specific focus on emerging world ▫ In each region, the economy is decomposed in 26 sectors ▫ Energy prices derives from IEA model (scenario« Business as usual »)▫ ▫ ▫ ▫ ▫All other prices adjust endogenously Price drive demand and supply reactions Invested capital is sticky Imperfect competition in services and manufacturing Perfect competition in agriculture13The world economy in 2025Lionel FontagnéImplementation• • • • Demographic projections ILO until 2020 2020-2025: use last 2020 growth rates Two notions of population:▫ Total population: important: dynamics of consumption ▫ Economically active population: labour dynamics14The world economy in 2025Lionel FontagnéImplementation• Projections of economic growth • IMF: Medium term projections until 2013 • CEPII: Longer-term projections until 2050:▫ Based on Solow-type growth model ▫ Labour and capital dynamics with accumulation and savings ▫ Technological catch up ▫ Education effect on productivity15The world economy in 2025Lionel FontagnéResults• We now detail forecasts for:▫ Demography and world population shares ▫ Economic growth and world GDP shares ▫ Total consumption and consumption patterns (mirrored by relative prices) ▫ Trade and market shares16The world economy in 2025Lionel FontagnéResults• Demography • 1.5 billion extra inhabitants in 2025 (+23%)▫ 97% in developing countries ▫ 95% in cities17The world economy in 2025Demography: Changes in world population sharesArgentina ASEAN Brazil Canada China European Union India Japan Latin American countries Non Oil Middle East North Africa Oceania Oil Middle East Other industrialised countries Rest of Africa Rest of developing Asia Rest of Europe Russia SADC USA 2004 2025Lionel Fontagné0510152018The world economy in 2025Lionel FontagnéResults• • • • Economic size World economy size should almost double +93 % for world GDP China:▫ Second largest (single) economy in 2025 behind USA ▫ With a 2025 GDP equal to 2/3 of EU and 1/2 of US ▫ With a 2025 GDP equal to the US one in 2000• India▫ The sixth largest economy in 2025 ▫ Similar to France19The world economy in 2025Lionel FontagnéEconomic size: GDPs2500050004500Billion constant dollar (2007)200001500010000USA Japan Germany China UK France Italy Brazil Korea India Russia4000350030002500200015005000100050000200520072009201120132015201720192021202320252005200720 2009The world economy in 2025Lionel FontagnéEconomic size: GDPs5000 4500USA Japan Germany China UK France Italy Brazil Korea India Russia4000350030002500200015001000500092021202320252005200720092011201320152017201920212023202521The world economy in 2025Lionel FontagnéChanges in world consumption• Larger share of industry and services (world income increases) • 2025 horizon: + 85% global consumption • Patterns change • Emerging countries boost demand for industrial goods and construction • Goods with rising prices (scarcity) are less consumed▫ ▫ ▫ ▫ Energy (resource) Fishing: fisheries exhausted, limits to farms Forestry: deforestation Agricultural goods: land use22The world economy in 2025Lionel FontagnéChanges in expenditure composition with incomeDevelopment pathwayExpenditure compositionNorth America Japan European Union Latin America Former Soviet Union ASEAN China Africa India 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%(per cap PPP) $33,470 $29,041 $32,132 $9,536 $10,181 $5,392 $5,689 $2,042 $2,903100%Food Clothing Equipemnt Transport Energy Housing Private Service Health Education Public23The world economy in 2025Lionel FontagnéChange of sectoral consumption (1)Index ratio to the aggregate consumption (2007=1)2010 2015 2020 2025Energy distribution1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9EquipmentFinanceCoal, oil and gasCommunicationConstructionDwellingsElectronic1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9Animal agriculture1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9Business servicesCerealsChemistryClothing and leather201020152020202520102015202020252010201520202025Year24The world economy in 2025Lionel FontagnéChange of sectoral consumption (2)Index ratio to the aggregate consumption (2007=1)2010 2015 2020 2025Vegetal ag. other than cereals1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8VehiclesWater distributionOther manufacturePublic administrationRecreation and other servicesTradeTransport1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8Fishing1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8Food industryForestryMetalsMinerals201020152020202520102015202020252010201520202025Year25The world economy in 2025Lionel FontagnéChanges in world trade• Determinants:▫ Changing demand patterns ▫ Competitive advantage ▫ Endowment in skilled labour• Factors of resilience▫ Investment capacities to adjust world demand shifts ▫ Distance to buoyant markets ▫ Protection26The world economy in 2025Lionel FontagnéChanges in world trade• Trade relations will be rebalanced • The South will export 43% of the world merchandise in 2025 … • … against 33% today. • Asia and EU positions as world trade leaders will be inverted • China will become the first (single) exporter in the world by 2012 and will account for 14% of world exports by 202527The world economy in 2025Lionel FontagnéChange in world market shares40Share of world exports (%)3020USA European Union Rest of the World China Japan India Brazil Russia100 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025Year28The world economy in 2025Lionel FontagnéConclusion• 2025▫ +23% population ▫ +93% economic activity• Depletion of resources and environment▫ Maritime resource ▫ Forests ▫ Land use• Shift of the centre of the world economy toward Asia▫ Emergence of new economic players ▫ Multipolar world• Change in trade distribution29The world economy in 2025Lionel FontagnéThank you30The world economy in 2025Lionel FontagnéDemographic projections (1)Total population2010 2015 2020 2025Economically active population2010 2015 2020 2025European UnionIndiaJapanLatin American countriesNon Oil Middle East210Population growth (%)-1Argentina2ASEANBrazilCanadaChina10-1 2010 2015 2020 2025 2010 2015 2020 2025 2010 2015 2020 2025Year31The world economy in 2025Lionel FontagnéDemographic projections (2)Total population2010 2015 2020 2025Economically active population2010 2015 2020 2025Rest of developing AsiaRest of EuropeRussiaSADCUSA3210Population growth (%)-1North Africa3OceaniaOil Middle EastOther industrialised countriesRest of Africa210-1201020152020202520102015202020252010201520202025Year32The world economy in 2025Lionel FontagnéGDP growth projections (1)IMF2010 2015 2020 2025CEPII2010 2015 2020 2025European UnionIndiaJapanLatin American countriesNon Oil Middle East10 8 6 4GDP growth (%)2Argentina10 8ASEANBrazilCanadaChina6 4 2201020152020202520102015202020252010201520202025Year33The world economy in 2025Lionel FontagnéGDP growth projections (2)IMF2010 2015 2020 2025CEPII2010 2015 2020 2025Rest of developing AsiaRest of EuropeRussiaSADCUSA864GDP growth (%)2North Africa8OceaniaOil Middle EastOther industrialised countriesRest of Africa642201020152020202520102015202020252010201520202025Year34The world economy in 2025Lionel FontagnéProduction price (1)Index (2007=1)2010 2015 2020 2025Energy distribution1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8EquipmentFinanceCoal, oil and gasCommunicationConstructionDwellingsElectronic1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8Animal agriculture1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8Business servicesCerealsChemistryClothing and leather201020152020202520102015202020252010201520202025Year35The world economy in 2025Lionel FontagnéProduction price (2)Index (2007=1)2010 2015 2020 2025Vegetal ag. other than cereals1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0VehiclesWater distributionOther manufacturePublic administrationRecreation and other servicesTradeTransport1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0Fishing1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0Food industryForestryMetalsMinerals201020152020202520102015202020252010201520202025Year36The world economy in 202520 regions1 2 3 4 5 6 EU27 USA Canada Japan Oceania Other Industrialised countriesLionel FontagnéKorea Taiwan Switzerland Rest of EFTA7 8 9 10 11Brazil Russia India China Rest of EuropeChina and Hong-Kong Albania Belarus Croatia Moldova Ukraine Rest of Europe37The world economy in 202512 13ASEAN Rest of developing AsiaLionel FontagnéBangladesh Pakistan Sri Lanka Rest of East Asia Rest of South Asia Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Iran Rest of Western Asia Armenia Georgia Kyrgyzstan Turkey Rest of Former Soviet Union Egypt Morocco Tunisia Rest of North Africa3814 15 16Argentina Rest of LAC Oil Middle East17Non Oil Middle East18North Africa19 20SADC Rest of Africa。