风险管理(英文)

Example of risk management : A NASA model showing areas at high risk from impact for the International Space Station.Risk managementFrom Wikipedia, the free encyclopediaRisk management is the identification, assessment,and prioritization of risks (defined in ISO 31000 asthe effect of uncertainty on objectives , whetherpositive or negative) followed by coordinated andeconomical application of resources to minimize,monitor, and control the probability and/or impact ofunfortunate events [1] or to maximize the realization ofopportunities. Risks can come from uncertainty infinancial markets, project failures (at any phase indesign, development, production, or sustainment life-cycles), legal liabilities, credit risk, accidents, naturalcauses and disasters as well as deliberate attack froman adversary, or events of uncertain or unpredictableroot-cause. Several risk management standards havebeen developed including the Project Management Institute, the National Institute of Standards and Technology, actuarial societies, and ISO standards.[2][3] Methods, definitions and goals varywidely according to whether the risk managementmethod is in the context of project management, security, engineering, industrial processes, financial portfolios,actuarial assessments, or public health and safety.The strategies to manage risk typically include transferring the risk to another party, avoiding the risk, reducing the negative effect or probability of the risk, or even accepting some or all of the potential or actualconsequences of a particular risk.Certain aspects of many of the risk management standards have come under criticism for having no measurable improvement on risk, whether the confidence in estimates and decisions seem to increase.[1]Contents1 Introduction1.1 Method1.2 Principles of risk management2 Process2.1 Establishing the context2.2 Identification2.3 Assessment3 Composite Risk Index4 Risk Options4.1 Potential risk treatments4.2 Create a risk management plan4.3 Implementation4.4 Review and evaluation of the plan5 Limitations6 Areas of risk management6.1 Enterprise risk management6.2 Risk management activities as applied to project management6.3 Risk management for megaprojects6.4 Risk management regarding natural disasters6.5 Risk management of information technology6.6 Risk management techniques in petroleum and natural gas7 Positive Risk Management7.1 Criticisms8 Risk management and business continuity9 Risk communication9.1 Seven cardinal rules for the practice of risk communication10 See also11 References12 Further readingIntroductionA widely used vocabulary for risk management is defined by ISO Guide 73, "Risk management. Vocabulary."[2]In ideal risk management, a prioritization process is followed whereby the risks with the greatest loss (or impact) and the greatest probability of occurring are handled first, and risks with lower probability of occurrence and lower loss are handled in descending order. In practice the process of assessing overall risk can be difficult, and balancing resources used to mitigate between risks with a high probability of occurrence but lower loss versus a risk with high loss but lower probability of occurrence can often be mishandled.Intangible risk management identifies a new type of a risk that has a 100% probability of occurring but is ignored by the organization due to a lack of identification ability. For example, when deficient knowledge is applied to a situation, a knowledge risk materializes. Relationship risk appears when ineffectivecollaboration occurs. Process-engagement risk may be an issue when ineffective operational procedures are applied. These risks directly reduce the productivity of knowledge workers, decrease costeffectiveness, profitability, service, quality, reputation, brand value, and earnings quality. Intangible risk management allows risk management to create immediate value from the identification and reduction of risks that reduce productivity.Risk management also faces difficulties in allocating resources. This is the idea of opportunity cost. Resources spent on risk management could have been spent on more profitable activities. Again, ideal risk management minimizes spending (or manpower or other resources) and also minimizes the negative effects of risks. MethodFor the most part, these methods consist of the following elements, performed, more or less, in the following order.1. identify, characterize threats2. assess the vulnerability of critical assets to specific threats3. determine the risk (i.e. the expected likelihood and consequences of specific types of attacks on specificassets)4. identify ways to reduce those risks5. prioritize risk reduction measures based on a strategyPrinciples of risk managementThe International Organization for Standardization (ISO) identifies the following principles of risk management:[4]Risk management should:create value – resources expended to mitigate risk should be less than the consequence of inaction, or (as in value engineering), the gain should exceed the painbe an integral part of organizational processesbe part of decision making processexplicitly address uncertainty and assumptionsbe systematic and structuredbe based on the best available informationbe tailorabletake human factors into accountbe transparent and inclusivebe dynamic, iterative and responsive to changebe capable of continual improvement and enhancementbe continually or periodically re-assessedProcessAccording to the standard ISO 31000 "Risk management – Principles and guidelines on implementation,"[3] the process of risk management consists of several steps as follows:Establishing the contextThis involves:1. identification of risk in a selected domain of interest2. planning the remainder of the process3. mapping out the following:the social scope of risk managementthe identity and objectives of stakeholdersthe basis upon which risks will be evaluated, constraints.4. defining a framework for the activity and an agenda for identification5. developing an analysis of risks involved in the process6. mitigation or solution of risks using available technological, human and organizational resources. IdentificationAfter establishing the context, the next step in the process of managing risk is to identify potential risks. Risks are about events that, when triggered, cause problems. Hence, risk identification can start with the source of problems, or with the problem itself.Source analysis[citation needed] - Risk sources may be internal or external to the system that is the target of risk management.Examples of risk sources are: stakeholders of a project, employees of a company or the weather over an airport.Problem analysis[citation needed] - Risks are related to identified threats. For example: the threat of losing money, the threat of abuse of confidential information or the threat of human errors, accidents andcasualties. The threats may exist with various entities, most important with shareholders, customers and legislative bodies such as the government.When either source or problem is known, the events that a source may trigger or the events that can lead to a problem can be investigated. For example: stakeholders withdrawing during a project may endanger funding of the project; confidential information may be stolen by employees even within a closed network; lightning striking an aircraft during takeoff may make all people on board immediate casualties.The chosen method of identifying risks may depend on culture, industry practice and compliance. The identification methods are formed by templates or the development of templates for identifying source, problem or event. Common risk identification methods are:Objectives-based risk identification[citation needed] - Organizations and project teams have objectives.Any event that may endanger achieving an objective partly or completely is identified as risk.Scenario-based risk identification - In scenario analysis different scenarios are created. The scenarios may be the alternative ways to achieve an objective, or an analysis of the interaction of forces in, forexample, a market or battle. Any event that triggers an undesired scenario alternative is identified as risk –see Futures Studies for methodology used by Futurists.Taxonomy-based risk identification - The taxonomy in taxonomy-based risk identification is a breakdown of possible risk sources. Based on the taxonomy and knowledge of best practices, a questionnaire iscompiled. The answers to the questions reveal risks.[5]Common-risk checking[citation needed] - In several industries, lists with known risks are available. Each risk in the list can be checked for application to a particular situation.[6]Risk charting [7] - This method combines the above approaches by listing resources at risk, threats tothose resources, modifying factors which may increase or decrease the risk and consequences it is wished to avoid. Creating a matrix under these headings enables a variety of approaches. One can begin with resources and consider the threats they are exposed to and the consequences of each. Alternatively one can start with the threats and examine which resources they would affect, or one can begin with theconsequences and determine which combination of threats and resources would be involved to bringthem about.AssessmentMain article: risk assessmentOnce risks have been identified, they must then be assessed as to their potential severity of impact (generally a negative impact, such as damage or loss) and to the probability of occurrence. These quantities can be either simple to measure, in the case of the value of a lost building, or impossible to know for sure in the case of the probability of an unlikely event occurring. Therefore, in the assessment process it is critical to make the best educated decisions in order to properly prioritize the implementation of the risk management plan.Even a short-term positive improvement can have long-term negative impacts. Take the "turnpike" example. A highway is widened to allow more traffic. More traffic capacity leads to greater development in the areas surrounding the improved traffic capacity. Over time, traffic thereby increases to fill available capacity. Turnpikes thereby need to be expanded in a seemingly endless cycles. There are many other engineering examples where expanded capacity (to do any function) is soon filled by increased demand. Since expansion comes at a cost, the resulting growth could become unsustainable without forecasting and management.The fundamental difficulty in risk assessment is determining the rate of occurrence since statistical information is not available on all kinds of past incidents. Furthermore, evaluating the severity of the consequences (impact) is often quite difficult for intangible assets. Asset valuation is another question that needs to be addressed. Thus, best educated opinions and available statistics are the primary sources of information. Nevertheless, risk assessment should produce such information for the management of the organization that the primary risks are easy to understand and that the risk management decisions may be prioritized. Thus, there have been several theories and attempts to quantify risks. Numerous different risk formulae exist, but perhaps the most widely accepted formula for risk quantification is:Rate (or probability) of occurrence multiplied by the impact of the event equals risk magnitude Composite Risk IndexThe above formula can also be re-written in terms of a Composite Risk Index, as follows:Composite Risk Index = Impact of Risk event x Probability of OccurrenceThe impact of the risk event is commonly assessed on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 and 5 represent the minimum and maximum possible impact of an occurrence of a risk (usually in terms of financial losses). However, the 1 to 5 scale can be arbitrary and need not be on a linear scale.The probability of occurrence is likewise commonly assessed on a scale from 1 to 5, where 1 represents a very low probability of the risk event actually occurring while 5 represents a very high probability of occurrence. This axis may be expressed in either mathematical terms (event occurs once a year, once in ten years, once in 100 years etc.) or may be expressed in "plain english" – event has occurred here very often; event has been known to occur here; event has been known to occur in the industry etc.). Again, the 1 to 5 scale can be arbitrary or non-linear depending on decisions by subject-matter experts.The Composite Index thus can take values ranging (typically) from 1 through 25, and this range is usually arbitrarily divided into three sub-ranges. The overall risk assessment is then Low, Medium or High, depending on the sub-range containing the calculated value of the Composite Index. For instance, the three sub-ranges could be defined as 1 to 8, 9 to 16 and 17 to 25.Note that the probability of risk occurrence is difficult to estimate, since the past data on frequencies are not readily available, as mentioned above. After all, probability does not imply certainty.Likewise, the impact of the risk is not easy to estimate since it is often difficult to estimate the potential loss in the event of risk occurrence.Further, both the above factors can change in magnitude depending on the adequacy of risk avoidance and prevention measures taken and due to changes in the external business environment. Hence it is absolutely necessary to periodically re-assess risks and intensify/relax mitigation measures, or as necessary. Changes in procedures, technology, schedules, budgets, market conditions, political environment, or other factors typically require re-assessment of risks.Risk OptionsRisk mitigation measures are usually formulated according to one or more of the following major risk options, which are:1. Design a new business process with adequate built-in risk control and containment measures from thestart.2. Periodically re-assess risks that are accepted in ongoing processes as a normal feature of businessoperations and modify mitigation measures.3. Transfer risks to an external agency (e.g. an insurance company)4. Avoid risks altogether (e.g. by closing down a particular high-risk business area)Later research[citation needed] has shown that the financial benefits of risk management are less dependent on the formula used but are more dependent on the frequency and how risk assessment is performed.In business it is imperative to be able to present the findings of risk assessments in financial, market, or schedule terms. Robert Courtney Jr. (IBM, 1970) proposed a formula for presenting risks in financial terms. The Courtney formula was accepted as the official risk analysis method for the US governmental agencies. The formula proposes calculation of ALE (annualised loss expectancy) and compares the expected loss value to the security control implementation costs (cost-benefit analysis).Potential risk treatmentsOnce risks have been identified and assessed, all techniques to manage the risk fall into one or more of these four major categories:[8]Avoidance (eliminate, withdraw from or not become involved)Reduction (optimize – mitigate)Sharing (transfer – outsource or insure)Retention (accept and budget)Ideal use of these strategies may not be possible. Some of them may involve trade-offs that are not acceptable to the organization or person making the risk management decisions. Another source, from the US Department of Defense (see link), Defense Acquisition University, calls these categories ACAT, for Avoid, Control, Accept, or Transfer. This use of the ACAT acronym is reminiscent of another ACAT (for Acquisition Category) used in US Defense industry procurements, in which Risk Management figures prominently in decision making and planning.Risk avoidanceThis includes not performing an activity that could carry risk. An example would be not buying a property or business in order to not take on the legal liability that comes with it. Another would be not flying in order not to take the risk that the airplane were to be hijacked. Avoidance may seem the answer to all risks, but avoiding risks also means losing out on the potential gain that accepting (retaining) the risk may have allowed. Not entering a business to avoid the risk of loss also avoids the possibility of earning profits. Increasing risk regulation in hospitals has led to avoidance of treating higher risk conditions, in favour of patients presenting with lower risk.[9]Hazard preventionMain article: Hazard preventionHazard prevention refers to the prevention of risks in an emergency. The first and most effective stage of hazard prevention is the elimination of hazards. If this takes too long, is too costly, or is otherwise impractical, the second stage is mitigation.Risk reductionRisk reduction or "optimization" involves reducing the severity of the loss or the likelihood of the loss from occurring. For example, sprinklers are designed to put out a fire to reduce the risk of loss by fire. This method may cause a greater loss by water damage and therefore may not be suitable. Halon fire suppression systems may mitigate that risk, but the cost may be prohibitive as a strategy.Acknowledging that risks can be positive or negative, optimizing risks means finding a balance between negative risk and the benefit of the operation or activity; and between risk reduction and effort applied. By an offshore drilling contractor effectively applying HSE Management in its organization, it can optimize risk to achieve levels of residual risk that are tolerable.[10]Modern software development methodologies reduce risk by developing and delivering software incrementally. Early methodologies suffered from the fact that they only delivered software in the final phase of development; any problems encountered in earlier phases meant costly rework and often jeopardized the whole project. By developing in iterations, software projects can limit effort wasted to a single iteration.Outsourcing could be an example of risk reduction if the outsourcer can demonstrate higher capability at managing or reducing risks.[11] For example, a company may outsource only its software development, the manufacturing of hard goods, or customer support needs to another company, while handling the business management itself. This way, the company can concentrate more on business development without having to worry as much about the manufacturing process, managing the development team, or finding a physical location for a call center.Risk sharingBriefly defined as "sharing with another party the burden of loss or the benefit of gain, from a risk, and the measures to reduce a risk."The term of 'risk transfer' is often used in place of risk sharing in the mistaken belief that you can transfer a risk to a third party through insurance or outsourcing. In practice if the insurance company or contractor go bankrupt or end up in court, the original risk is likely to still revert to the first party. As such in the terminology of practitioners and scholars alike, the purchase of an insurance contract is often described as a "transfer of risk." However, technically speaking, the buyer of the contract generally retains legal responsibility for the losses "transferred", meaning that insurance may be described more accurately as a post-event compensatory mechanism. For example, a personal injuries insurance policy does not transfer the risk of a car accident to the insurance company. The risk still lies with the policy holder namely the person who has been in the accident. The insurance policy simply provides that if an accident (the event) occurs involving the policy holder then some compensation may be payable to the policy holder that is commensurate to the suffering/damage.Some ways of managing risk fall into multiple categories. Risk retention pools are technically retaining the risk for the group, but spreading it over the whole group involves transfer among individual members of the group. This is different from traditional insurance, in that no premium is exchanged between members of the group up front, but instead losses are assessed to all members of the group.Risk retentionInvolves accepting the loss, or benefit of gain, from a risk when it occurs. True self insurance falls in this category. Risk retention is a viable strategy for small risks where the cost of insuring against the risk would be greater over time than the total losses sustained. All risks that are not avoided or transferred are retained by default. This includes risks that are so large or catastrophic that they either cannot be insured against or the premiums would be infeasible. War is an example since most property and risks are not insured against war, so the loss attributed by war is retained by the insured. Also any amounts of potential loss (risk) over the amount insured is retained risk. This may also be acceptable if the chance of a very large loss is small or if the cost to insure for greater coverage amounts is so great it would hinder the goals of the organization too much. Create a risk management planMain article: Risk management planSelect appropriate controls or countermeasures to measure each risk. Risk mitigation needs to be approved by the appropriate level of management. For instance, a risk concerning the image of the organization should have top management decision behind it whereas IT management would have the authority to decide on computer virus risks.The risk management plan should propose applicable and effective security controls for managing the risks. For example, an observed high risk of computer viruses could be mitigated by acquiring and implementing antivirus software. A good risk management plan should contain a schedule for control implementation and responsible persons for those actions.According to ISO/IEC 27001, the stage immediately after completion of the risk assessment phase consists of preparing a Risk Treatment Plan, which should document the decisions about how each of the identified risks should be handled. Mitigation of risks often means selection of security controls, which should be documented in a Statement of Applicability, which identifies which particular control objectives and controls from the standard have been selected, and why.ImplementationImplementation follows all of the planned methods for mitigating the effect of the risks. Purchase insurance policies for the risks that have been decided to be transferred to an insurer, avoid all risks that can be avoided without sacrificing the entity's goals, reduce others, and retain the rest.Review and evaluation of the planInitial risk management plans will never be perfect. Practice, experience, and actual loss results will necessitate changes in the plan and contribute information to allow possible different decisions to be made in dealing with the risks being faced.Risk analysis results and management plans should be updated periodically. There are two primary reasons for this:1. to evaluate whether the previously selected security controls are still applicable and effective2. to evaluate the possible risk level changes in the business environment. For example, information risks area good example of rapidly changing business environment.LimitationsPrioritizing the risk management processes too highly could keep an organization from ever completing a project or even getting started. This is especially true if other work is suspended until the risk management process is considered complete.It is also important to keep in mind the distinction between risk and uncertainty. Risk can be measured by impacts x probability.If risks are improperly assessed and prioritized, time can be wasted in dealing with risk of losses that are not likely to occur. Spending too much time assessing and managing unlikely risks can divert resources that could be used more profitably. Unlikely events do occur but if the risk is unlikely enough to occur it may be better to simply retain the risk and deal with the result if the loss does in fact occur. Qualitative risk assessment is subjective and lacks consistency. The primary justification for a formal risk assessment process is legal and bureaucratic.Areas of risk managementAs applied to corporate finance, risk management is the technique for measuring, monitoring and controlling the financial or operational risk on a firm's balance sheet. See value at risk.The Basel II framework breaks risks into market risk (price risk), credit risk and operational risk and also specifies methods for calculating capital requirements for each of these components.Enterprise risk managementMain article: Enterprise Risk ManagementIn enterprise risk management, a risk is defined as a possible event or circumstance that can have negative influences on the enterprise in question. Its impact can be on the very existence, the resources (human and capital), the products and services, or the customers of the enterprise, as well as external impacts on society, markets, or the environment. In a financial institution, enterprise risk management is normally thought of as the combination of credit risk, interest rate risk or asset liability management, liquidity risk, market risk, and operational risk.In the more general case, every probable risk can have a pre-formulated plan to deal with its possible consequences (to ensure contingency if the risk becomes a liability).From the information above and the average cost per employee over time, or cost accrual ratio, a project manager can estimate:the cost associated with the risk if it arises, estimated by multiplying employee costs per unit time by the estimated time lost (cost impact, C where C = cost accrual ratio * S).the probable increase in time associated with a risk (schedule variance due to risk, Rs where Rs = P * S):Sorting on this value puts the highest risks to the schedule first. This is intended to cause thegreatest risks to the project to be attempted first so that risk is minimized as quickly as possible.This is slightly misleading as schedule variances with a large P and small S and vice versa are notequivalent. (The risk of the RMS Titanic sinking vs. the passengers' meals being served at slightlythe wrong time).the probable increase in cost associated with a risk (cost variance due to risk, Rc where Rc = P*C = P*CAR*S = P*S*CAR)sorting on this value puts the highest risks to the budget first.see concerns about schedule variance as this is a function of it, as illustrated in the equationabove.Risk in a project or process can be due either to Special Cause Variation or Common Cause Variation and requires appropriate treatment. That is to re-iterate the concern about extremal cases not being equivalent in the list immediately above.Risk management activities as applied to project managementIn project management, risk management includes the following activities:Planning how risk will be managed in the particular project. Plans should include risk management tasks, responsibilities, activities and budget.Assigning a risk officer – a team member other than a project manager who is responsible for foreseeing potential project problems. Typical characteristic of risk officer is a healthy skepticism.Maintaining live project risk database. Each risk should have the following attributes: opening date, title, short description, probability and importance. Optionally a risk may have an assigned person responsible for its resolution and a date by which the risk must be resolved.Creating anonymous risk reporting channel. Each team member should have the possibility to report risks that he/she foresees in the project.Preparing mitigation plans for risks that are chosen to be mitigated. The purpose of the mitigation plan is to describe how this particular risk will be handled – what, when, by whom and how will it be done to avoid it or minimize consequences if it becomes a liability.Summarizing planned and faced risks, effectiveness of mitigation activities, and effort spent for the risk management.Risk management for megaprojectsMegaprojects (sometimes also called "major programs") are extremely large-scale investment projects, typically costing more than US$1 billion per project. Megaprojects include bridges, tunnels, highways, railways, airports, seaports, power plants, dams, wastewater projects, coastal flood protection schemes, oil and natural gas extraction projects, public buildings, information technology systems, aerospace projects, and defence systems. Megaprojects have been shown to be particularly risky in terms of finance, safety, and social and environmental impacts. Risk management is therefore particularly pertinent for megaprojects and special methods and special education have been developed for such risk management.[12]Risk management regarding natural disastersIt is important to assess risk in regard to natural disasters like floods, earthquakes, and so on. Outcomes of natural disaster risk assessment are valuable when considering future repair costs, business interruption losses and other downtime, effects on the environment, insurance costs, and the proposed costs of reducing the risk.[13] There are regular conferences in Davos to deal with integral risk management.Risk management of information technologyMain article: IT risk management。