国家风险管理(英文版) Country Risk Management
风险管理介绍(双语)
IDENTIFICATION OF HIGHER RISK JOBS 发现风险较高的项目
Higher risk jobs attract a Project Risk/Liability Uplift fee 风险较高的项目应增加项目风险/责任费 风险较高的项目应增加项目风险 责任费
TYPICAL RISK AREAS AT PROPOSAL STAGE 建议书阶段考虑的风险范围
RISK ASSESSMENT – LIKELIHOOD 风险评估 – 可能性
RISK ASSESSMENT – CONSEQUENCES 风险评估 – 后果
RISK ASSESSMENT - RISK LEVEL 风险评估 – 风险等级
RISK TREATMENT 风险处理
Do not take on the risk – sometimes clients want to pass on risks which they are best placed to manage 不接受风险 – 业主将风险转移给， 业主将风险转移给， 以使风险得到更好的管理 Accept risk but limit financial liability by having a specified limit of liability in the contract 接受风险，但在合同中列出具体的责任限额，从而限定的财务责任 接受风险，但在合同中列出具体的责任限额，从而限定的财务责任 责任限额 Accept risk but limit extent of exposure eg report disclaimers 接受风险，但限定受影响可能性的范围， 接受风险，但限定受影响可能性的范围，如：提出否认责任 Accept risk and manage 接受风险， 接受风险，并进行管理 Transfer risk to a third party 将风险转移给第三方
11第十一章 国家风险管理
第十一章国家风险管理第一节国家风险的概念与类型一、国家风险的概念对于什么是国家风险，看法不一，有人认为是主权风险，有人等同于政治风险，还有人把借款国偿还债务的一切风险统称为国家风险，这些定义都不全面。
一般来说，所谓国家风险是指经济主体与非本国居民进行国际贸易和金融往来中，由于别国的经济、政治和社会等方面的变化而遭受损失的可能性。
在理解上要注意：1.国家风险包括主权风险，但并不等于主权风险。
2.政治风险是国家风险的重要内容，但不是唯一内容。
3.信用风险有一般信用风险和特殊信用风险之分，国家风险就是特殊的信用风险。
二、国家风险的类型1.按引发国家风险事故的性质分（1）经济风险。
就是指由于债务人国家的经济原因所引起的风险。
如：经济长期低增长、工人罢工、生产成本剧增、出口收入持续下降、国际收支恶化、外汇资金短缺等。
（2）政治风险。
就是指一国的国际关系发生重大变化而引起的风险。
如：对外战争、领土被占，或者国内动荡不安、恐怖事件不断发生、社会骚乱、地方争斗、政党分裂等。
（3）社会风险。
就是因为一国的社会矛盾所引起的风险。
如：发生内战、种族纠纷、宗教纷争以及社会分配不均所引起的结群格斗、社会阶层对立等。
2.按借款者的行为划分（1）间接风险。
这是指当一国意外遭受经济困难或者政局动荡时，银行在该国的贷款收益虽然不会马上受到损失，但此后也有间接损失。
这主要是收回时贬值；还有就是要改变贷款的国别分配而产生的成本。
（2）到期不还风险。
就是债务到期后得不到不还。
包括利息和本金两个方面。
（3）债务重新安排风险。
就是指跨国银行、有关国家政府或其它金融机构共同协商，就重债国有关债务的支付做出新的协议安排。
主要有：借新还旧；延期还本付息以及变更还本付息的条件等。
无论何种情况，在重新安排债务上都会受到损失。
（4）债务勾销风险。
就是指跨国银行迫于债务国的严峻形势对其债务购销而带来的风险损失。
第二节国家风险的评估一、国家风险的评估机构1.专门的国家风险评估机构世界上比较著名的国家风险评估机构有：商业环境风险信息机构（BERI）、《欧洲货币》杂志、《机构投资者》杂志、国际报告集团等。
风险管理培训资料(英文版)(doc 70页)(正式版)
ContentsCHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION1.1 Purpose of this guideThis guide is intended to help organisations to put in place effective frameworks for taking informed decisions about risk. The guidance provides a route map for, bringing together recommended approaches, checklists and pointers to more detailed sources of advice on tools and techniques. It expands on the Guidelines for Managing Risk.The process of investment appraisal, in which assessments are made of costs, and risks, is outside the scope of this guide. However, many of the principles and techniques described here can be used when developing the. The approach described in this guide complements’s guidance on programme and management and is continually updated to reflect current thinking. This approach, branded by as (), is supported by training and qualifications.1.2 What is management of risk?In this guide risk is defined as uncertainty of outcome, whether positive or negative. The term ‘’ incorporates all the activities required to identify and control the exposure to risk which may have an impact on the achievement of an organisation’s business objectives.Every organisation manages its risk, but not always in a way that is visible, repeatable and consistently applied to support decision making. The task of is to ensure that the organisation makes cost effective use of a that has a series of well defined steps. The aim is to support better decision making through a good understanding of risks and their likely impact.There are two distinct phases: and. Risk analysis is concerned with gathering information about exposure to risk so that the organisation can make appropriate decisions and manage risk appropriately.involves having processes in place to monitor risks, access to reliable and up to date information about risks, the right balance of control in place to deal with those risks, and decision making processes supported by a framework of and evaluation.covers a wide range of topics, including business continuity management, security, / management and operational service management. These topics need to be placed in the context of an organisational framework for the. Some risk-related topics, such as security, are highly specialised and this guidance provides only an overview of such aspects.1.3 Why management of risk is importantA certain amount of risk taking is inevitable if your organisation is to achieve its objectives. Effective helps you to improve performance by contributing to:∙increased certainty and fewer surprises∙better service delivery∙more effective management of change∙more efficient use of resources∙better management at all levels through improved decision making∙reduced waste and fraud, and better value for money∙innovation∙management of contingent and maintenance activities.See for examples of the of more effective.1.4 Who is involved in risk managementIn practice, everyone in an organisation is involved in risk management to some extent and should be aware of their responsibilities in identifying and managing risk. However, there are some aspects for which responsibility must be assigned to individuals. Without clear responsibility (and the authority to support that responsibility) some risks will be missed or overlooked.In the public sector, there are two major roles with a clear responsibility to ensure risks are managed (there will be equivalents to these roles in private sector organisations). These roles are:∙an Accounting Officer (or equivalent senior manager), who is responsible for the organisation’s overall exposure to risk. Typically this person will be the Chief ExecutiveOfficer (CEO); the senior manager in the organisation. They may delegate some of theactions but cannot forgo the responsibility∙ a senior manager acting as a ‘owner’, who is responsible for risk relating to a specific or and for the realisation of associated business.Audience for this guidanceBusiness managers, process owners, strategic planners, and teams, business continuity planners and security teams are the primary audience for this guidance, together with their service providers.It will also be of interest to auditors, with their responsibility for ensuring effective.1.5 How to use this guideChapter 1 introduces the structure, process and culture of, explaining why organisations need to devise and implement effective strategies in order to maximise and minimise to the achievement of their business objectives. It identifies key personnel in the and the target audience for the guidance.outlines the key principles underpinning: establishing a framework, risk ownership, where risks occur, the decision making process, the importance of embedding the risk management culture, and allocating realistic budgets.describes the main activities of. It contains practical examples, pointers and checklists for identifying and responding to risk, and monitoring.–7 explain when and how should be applied throughout an organisation, at the strategic, , and operational levels.discusses the range of techniques available to support the process.The Annexes provide supporting detail:∙: Examples of of∙: Healthcheck: how well is your organisation managing risk?∙: Categorising risk∙: Setting a standard for evaluation of risk∙:, contractual and legal considerations∙:∙: Managing organisational safety and security∙: Information on further techniques to support∙: Lessons learned from others∙: Assessing the suitability of tools∙: Documentation outlines.1.6 The research for this guidancePrepared by OGC's Directorate, this guidance has been developed from extensive research into current thinking and practice in both the public and private sectors, drawing on published papers and interviews/studies with a number of leading organisations involved in major change and with specialist experts in the. It builds on the recent work of the National Audit Office (), HM Treasury and Cabinet Office, together with OGC's published guidance on best practice in; it also aims to address issues relating to.This guidance responds to lessons learned and the experiences of real-world practical issues, as reported by consultants in 's Strategic Assignments Consultancy Service and their clients. In addition, it incorporates feedback from contributors to workshops and other review channels. These contributions are acknowledged with thanks.CHAPTER 2: PRINCIPLES This chapter outlines the key principles underpinning the effective.2.1 Critical success factors for management of riskThe key elements that need to be in place if is to be effective, and innovation encouraged, include: ∙clearly identified senior management to support, own and lead on∙policies and the of effective management clearly communicated to all staff∙existence and adoption of a framework for that is transparent and repeatable∙existence of an organisational culture which supports well thought-through risk taking and innovation∙fully embedded in management processes and consistently applied∙closely linked to achievement of objectives∙risks associated with working with other organisations explicitly assessed and managed∙risks actively monitored and regularly reviewed on a constructive ‘no-blame’ basis.Joint working and partnerships often involve more complex types of risk that can adversely affect the delivery of business services. For example, if part of the service provided by one organisation is delayed or of poor quality, the success of the whole collaboration can be put at risk. You must make sure that your organisation knows about the approaches of your partners. Sharing information about risk management means that risks in collaborative can be identified and managed in a proactive way.Public sector concernsThe Modernising Government initiative seeks to encourage the public sector to adopt well managed risk taking where it is likely to lead to sustainable improvements in service delivery. More effective will improve the public sector’s ability to undertake the increasingly complex and c ross-cutting that are demanded by the Modernisation agenda. Public sector organisations need to have in place the skills, management structures and organisational structures to take advantage of potential to perform better and to reduce the possibility of failure.The key areas that have to be addressed are:∙the requirements of – including more focused and open ways of managing risk (see the section on below)∙the need for a ‘’ at senior level, for an activity (strategy, or). He or she is supported by at everyday working levels as appropriate for the activity and risk exposure∙the need for improved reporting and upward referral of major problems∙and the potential resolution approaches∙the need for shared understanding of at all levels in the organisation and with partners, combined with consistent treatment of risk∙managing in the wider context of of change and the business.The study of (Supporting Innovation: Managing Risk in Government Departments), the Cabinet Office’s report Successful : Modernising Government in Action, and HM Treasury’s Orange Book provide valuable messages that are incorporated in this guidance.Meeting the needs of corporate governanceCorporate governance is the ongoing activity of maintaining a sound system of internal control to safeguard shareholders’ investment and the company’s.The states that:‘a company’s objectives, its internal organisation and the environment which it operates in are continually evolving and as a result the risks it faces are continually changing. A sound system of control therefore depends on a thorough and regular evaluation of the nature and extent of the risks to which the company is exposed. Since profits [or business results] are in part the reward for successful risk taking in business, the purpose of internal control is to help manage and control risk rather than eliminate it.’frameworks must ensure that management is held accountable for a corporation’s performance and that owners are able to monitor and intervene in the operations of management.These principles apply equally to the public and private sectors. Whereas corporations focus mainly on shareholder returns and the preservation of shareholders’ value, the public sector’s role is to implement cost effectively in accordance with Government legislation and policies.The British Standards Institute () has produced a guidance note on Corporate Governance – PD 6668:2000– relating to the management of. It outlines a management framework for identifying the, determining the risks, implementation and maintaining control measures and finally reporting annually on the organisation’s commitment to this process.Policy on management of risk to support corporate governanceTo support, there needs to be a policy in place. This policy should:∙be appropriate for the size and nature of your organisation, its business and operating environment∙be clear about the roles (and, if possible, individuals) that are responsible for risk∙be clear about escalation criteria in relation to (i.e., when to refer decision making upwards)∙ensure that processes, and the culture/infrastructure, to identify and manage risk are put in place; these processes must be repeatable∙set up the mechanism for monitoring the success of the application of the policy (including reports to management, at least annually)∙ensure that internal control mechanisms are in place for independent assessment that the policy is implemented (and checked).2.2 What is at risk and why?There are many diverse factors that could place an organisation at risk. outlines the main reasons why there should be a robust process in place.Your organisation will have a set of key objectives. Risks should be identified against these objectives, ideally not more than 10-15 at high level. These high-level risks will then be considered and managed by senior management, increasing the organisation’s ability to meet its objectives. provides a ‘healthcheck’ to see if an organisation is adopting an effective framework for and risk management process.expands on possible categories of risk.Relating management of risk to safety, security and business continuityshould be carried out in the wider context of safety concerns, security and business continuity.∙Health and safety policy and practice is concerned with ensuring that the workplace is a safe environment.∙Security is concerned with protecting the organisation’s, including information, buildings and so on.∙Business continuity is concerned with ensuring that the organisation could continue to operate in the event of a disaster, such as loss of a service, flood or fire damage.Figure 1: Reasons for a processReducing risk in large scale projectsExperience has shown that and attempting a large scale, comprehensive business change are less likely to be successful than those taking a less ambitious, step-by-step approach. Although the latter increases management activity, with each of the elements needing to be controlled and coordinated, the advantages are that activities are:∙easier to manage∙simpler to implement within the business environment∙easier to accept formally as, typically, the specification is easier to document and thus simpler to verify that it has been met∙able to offer more options for contingency∙more likely to accommodate fast moving changes in technology, or in the political or financial environment∙able to offer more decision points, allowing greater control of the.2.3 Decisions about riskDecisions about risk need to be balanced so that the potential are worth more to the organisation than it costs to address the risk.For example, innovation is inherently risky but could achieve major in improving services. The ability of the organisation to limit its exposure to risk will also be of relevance.You should aim to make an accurate assessment of the risks in a given situation and analyse the potential. The risks and presented by each course of action should be defined in order to identify appropriate response.Scope of decisionsDecisions about risk will vary depending on whether the risk relates to long, medium or short-term goals.Strategic decisions are primarily concerned with long-term goals; these set the context for decisions at other levels of the organisation. The risks associated with strategic decisions may not become apparent until well into the future. Thus it is essential to review these decisions, and associated risks, on a regular basis.Medium-term goals are usually addressed through and to bring about business change. Decisions relating to medium-term goals are narrower in scope than strategic ones, particularly in terms of timeframe and financial responsibilities.At the operational level the emphasis is on short-term goals to ensure ongoing continuity of business services; however, decisions about risk at this level must also support the achievement of long- and medium-term goals. These organisational levels are discussed in more detail in Chapters, , and.There are also considerations about what can realistically be achieved in one change initiative. Delivery of each of the of a change initiative (whether a, or stage) must provide some direct benefit to the organisation as a result of its delivery. This could be by delivering:∙ a major to support/build towards the intended outcome – for example, providing a telephone helpline first as part of a new information service and then adding websiteservices to expand the facilities available to the public∙the to part of the end us er community and then ‘rolling out’ to the rest of that community –for example, introducing a new information service in the North-East and gradually making it available nationwide.This is a modular and/or incremental approach that is further discussed in Chapters and and in.When managing any it is essential to ensure major decisions are made appropriately. A will support some business change and so require something to be produced and then put into use.shows the main stages of the process and the decisions to be taken about breaking projects down into manageable ‘packages’. For major projects, there will be formal in addition to the normal decision points; these reviews establish whether the is ready to proceed to the next stage.Figure 2: Main stages of the process2.4 Where risks occurThe process should be most rigorously applied where critical decisions are being made.shows where risk can occur in an organisation. For convenience, these levels are described as: ∙strategic or corporate∙operational.In practice, the levels overlap; however, it is helpful to clarify the occurrence of risks at these levels to inform the kind of decisions you are likely to make.Figure 3: Organisational management hierarchyIt is important to note that a risk may materialise initially at one level but subsequently have a major impact at a different level. A recent example is a High Street bank facing technical faults at the operational level; ultimately customers’ confidence in the bank’s online service became a. This highlights the need for relevant information about risks to be shared throughout the organisation.shows examples of typical risks occurring at each organisational level.Table 1: related to organisational levelsLevel Examples of typical risks considered at this levelStrategic/corporate Commercial, financial, political, environmental, directional, cultural, acquisition and quality risks. There is a focus on business survival, continuity and growthfor the future.When, and exceed set criteria –e.g. not acceptable, outsideagreed limits, could affect strategic objectives, information needs to beescalated to this level so that appropriate decisions can be taken./acquisition, funding, organisational, , security, safety, quality and businesscontinuity risks.When and exceed set criteria –e.g. not acceptable, outsideagreed limits, could affect objectives, information needs to be escalated to thislevel so that appropriate decisions can be taken.Personal, technical, cost, schedule, resource, operational support, quality andprovider failure.Operational issues/risks should be considered at this level asthey affect the and how it needs to be run. Information on strategic and relatedrisks should be communicated to this level where they could affect objectives.Project managers should communicate information on risks to other projectsand operations as appropriate.Operations Personal, technical, cost, schedule, resource, operational support, quality, provider failure, environmental and infrastructure failure.All the higher levelshave input to this level; specific concerns include /, support for businessprocesses and customer relations.Additional factorsAdditional factors may increase the complexity of assessing overall exposure to risk. These include:∙interdependencies, or links between and/or related issues, where the impact of one or more risks could affect others, possibly creating a ‘domino’ effect. You should ensure that anyknown interdependencies are identified and assessed so that appropriate action can beplanned∙the relationship between business and risks to delivery, where achievement of is dependent on successful delivery of a. You should continually check whether changing plans affect the achievement of.2.5 A framework for managing riskA framework for sets the context in which risks will be identified, analysed, controlled, monitored and reviewed. It must be consistent with processes that are embedded in everyday management and operational practices. It addresses:∙how risks are identified∙how information about their probability and potential impact is obtained∙how risks are quantified∙how options to deal with them are identified∙how decisions on are made, such as further risk reduction∙how these decisions are implemented∙how actions are evaluated for their effectiveness∙how appropriate communication mechanisms are set up and supported∙how are engaged throughout the process.(See for more information about the and supporting processes.)2.6 Risk ownershipFor the organisation, ownership of the framework lies with the Accounting Officer (or equivalent senior manager at Board level). Individual senior managers own the or and are responsible for the management of the overall risk of that activity. However, these roles do not own all the individual risks. Risk ownership must be clearly defined, documented and agreed with the individual owners at all levels, so that they understand their various roles, responsibilities and ultimate accountability with regard to the. The owner of a risk may not be the person tasked with the assessment or management of the risk, but he or she is responsible for ensuring the process is applied – there may be separate owners to actually deal with the risks.It is important to identify who owns:∙the setting policy and the organisation’s willin gness to take risk∙the process at the different levels – that is, strategic, , , operational levels∙different elements of the process, such as identifying, through to producing and reporting on decisions∙implementation of the actual measures taken in response to the risks∙interdependent risks that cross organisational boundaries, whether they are business processes, operational services or.For example, for a senior manager with responsibility for a, ownership of risk could be defined as follows:Senior managers responsible for projects must assure themselves that a number of types of risk are being tracked and dealt with as effectively as possible. The mechanisms in place for monitoring and reporting risk will vary according to the size and complexity of the or, ranging from the use of a simple to the appointment of a risk manager reporting directly to the senior manager. Clearly, the degree of delegation adopted by the senior manager will vary, but he or she must be sure that the critical issues are being addressed; for example, through chairing the board or by developing strong mechanisms for reporting problems.Checklist: ownership of risk and the process∙Have owners been allocated for all the various parts of the complete process?∙Are the various roles and responsibilities associated with ownership well defined?∙Do the individuals who have been allocated ownership actually have the authority and capability to fulfil their responsibilities? For example, suppliers may be tasked with riskownership.∙Have the various roles and responsibilities been communicated and understood?∙Are the nominated owners appropriate and aware of their nomination?∙Is ownership reassessed on a periodic basis, or in the event of a change in the situation;and if necessary, can it be quickly and effectively reallocated?∙Do all risks, and where appropriate their mitigation actions, have clearly identified owners?Are these owners appropriate?2.7 Embedding the risk management cultureIdentifying appropriate policies, standards and practices is the first stage of creating a risk management culture. Once these are in place they need to be totally embedded in individuals through the enactment of their roles and associated responsibilities.Awareness of and responsibility for risk issues must be linked explicitly to key objectives, in order to build a sustainable culture. There should be delegated responsibility for risks at every level of objectives in the organisation. This is the major support to embedding risk management into the organisation and its culture, with seen as an intrinsic part of the way an organisation works. As the people in an organisation change, it is essential to ensure a continuing understanding of roles and responsibilities related to managing risk.The ri sk environment is constantly changing too. Your organisation’s priorities and the relative importance of risks will shift and change. Assumptions about risk have to be regularly revisited and reconsidered, perhaps by annual review of the risks associated with each of the key organisational objectives.Establishing appropriate competencies and behavioursAn important aspect of setting up a risk culture is to ensure it is relevant to the organisation. is a major facet of effective.Those responsible for need to have knowledge and understanding of:∙strategic planning∙legal requirements∙agreements and contracts∙communication techniques and information management∙staff matters, including how staff can be motivated and involved∙education and continual professional development∙continuous improvement and/or analytical techniques∙how the organisation is monitored and evaluated∙resource management, including equal opportunities and delegation.Although managers tend to work in specific areas of the organisation, either based on technical specialism or business function, they all need to identify and manage risk. To do this they need to be able to:∙ensure that the situation is properly scoped∙identify and assess the risk∙create valid options for reducing risk to an acceptable level∙collect appropriate and meaningful information to assess risk and the options, and then to monitor the risk∙use sound reasoning when making a trade-off between the costs and of managing a risk ∙make a clear commitment to a particular course of action.For planning, the major areas to consider are:∙deciding on the likelihood of a specific event occurring∙prioritising areas to address/actions to instigate. This requires understanding the implications of the options available∙assigning ownership of risks and actions, containment or contingent, to be deployed in a timely manner∙ensuring that continuity plans can cope with the current and potential future situation, not with how things were in the recent past.Visible information on riskInformation on risk and its management needs to reach the people who have to take action or make decisions. This information will flow downwards and upwards between the organisational levels. There will also be sideways flows across each level, between or. The vertical flows are the most important as they reflect levels of responsibility for decision making.For example, a decision may be made at the strategic level that affects the progress of current. Conversely, the collective risks relating to the progress of current may have a strategic impact.These examples illustrate why risks should be identified and handled at each level before they are passed up or down to the next level. Good communication mechanisms are essential to avoid the following problems:∙inadequate communication from lower levels, where people have ‘hands on’ knowledge, to the level where decisions are made, leads to unrealistic expectations from seniormanagement∙inadequate communication from the top down can mean that are no longer supporting the business direction.CommunicationsTo address these problems you will need to ensure that appropriate communication mechanisms exist and are adopted. Your organisation should:∙ensure there is sufficient communication to key, whether internal or external, to support their needs∙ensure that people are aware, informed and understand their part in managing risk∙consider whether there is a need to improve internal communications∙consider training needs and how these can be met adequately∙ensure people have the right information at the right time to fulfil their responsibilities (and how to recognise if this does not happen).See for more information on and.Ensuring that your controls are adequateThere must be adequate control mechanisms to meet the needs of. These will be described in the and implemented through the framework. Specific controls will be introduced across the organisation to cope with certain circumstances, such as through the use of and management.Once an appropriate set of controls is adopted, an independent audit will check that they are in place, adequate and in use.2.8 BudgetsThe process must be embedded in the organisation, rather than being tacked on as an afterthought. The cost of carrying out the process will depend upon the technical, political and organisational。
什么是风险管理( Risk Management )？
什么是风险管理（ Risk Management ）？
风险管理（ Risk Management ）的定义为，当企业面临市场开放、法规解禁、产品创新，均使变化波动程度提高，连带增加经营的风险性。
良好的风险管理有助于降低决策错误之几率、避免损失之可能、相对提高企业本身之附加价值。
风险的种类包括：
一、市场风险：市价波动对于企业营运或投资可能产生亏损之风险，如利率、汇率、股价等变动对相关部位损益的影响。
二、信用风险：交易对手无力偿付货款、或恶意倒闭致求偿无门的风险。
三、流动性风险：影响企业资金调度能力之风险，如负债管理、资产变现性、紧急流动应变能力。
四、作业风险：作业制度不良与操作疏失对企业造成之风险，如流程设计不良或矛盾、作业执行发生疏漏、內部控制未落实。
五、法律风险：契约之完备与有效与否对企业可能产生之风险，如承作业务之适法性、外文契约及外国法令之认知。
六、会计风险：会计处理与税务对企业盈亏可能产生之风险，如帐务处理之妥适性、合法性、税务咨询及处理是否完备。
七、资讯风险：资讯系统之安控、运作、备援失当导致企业之风险，如系统障碍、当机、资料消灭，安全防护或电脑病毒预防与处理
等。
八、策略风险：于竞争环境中，企业选择市场利基或核心产品失当的风险。
风险管理原则：
一、强调事前管理。
二、数量化佐证以衡量风险程度。
三、预设最坏的情境。
四、模拟评估。
五、弹性化调整。
对于风险管理政策，应明文订定营业策略或方针、业务计划、內控与稽核制度，建立风险部位限额呈报董事会核定，评估执行绩效并适时检讨修正.。
第七章 国家风险管理
第三节 国家风险管理
三、国家风险的化解方法
3、贷款力求多元化
多元化是指投资国别分散化和贷款对象多样化。 银行一般不是从单个国家的角度来管理国家风 险，而是从银行资产组合的总体安全性来把握 国家风险。在分散化基础上，对于特定国家贷 款项目的国家风险问题，应当做到数量化分析。
第三节 国家风险管理
二、国家风险的表现形态
（二）债务危机是国家风险的集中表现
政府或国家也会破产吗？
1981.3 波兰政府宣布无力偿还外债本息； 1982.8 墨西哥政府宣布无法偿还到期债务，
随后，巴西、阿根廷、委内瑞拉等拉美国家相 继纷纷效仿。 2001年12月23日，阿根廷宣布停止偿还1500 多亿外债，成为世界有史以来最大的倒账国。
2、政治因素
政府是集体领导还是个人领导？ 依靠人民支持还是利益集团或军队支持？ 领导人的领导能力如何？ 政绩如何？ 最高领导人更迭频率及现任领导的执政年限、
思想、威望、感召力 接班人情况，反对党力量 发生政变、工人运动、罢工、示威
政治风险案例
美国：1950年12月，冻结中国在美全部 资产，1980年1月31日解冻。
加 强 自 身 建 设，增 强个人 的休养 。2021年 1月10日 上午 4时29分 21.1.1021.1.10
精 益 求 精 ， 追求卓 越，因 为相信 而伟大 。2021年 1月10日 星期 日上午 4时29分 23秒 04:29:2321.1.10
让 自 己 更 加 强大， 更加专 业，这 才能让 自己更 好。2021年 1月 上午4时 29分 21.1.1004:29January 10, 2021
第三节 国家风险管理
三、国家风险的化解方法
2、采用银团贷款方式进行。
国际金融管理第十章 国家风险管理
属人主义原则
以是否拥有本国国籍或 是否本国居民为标准， 确定课税范围
属地主义原则
以纳税人所得来源地、财 产所在地或经济活动发生 地为标准，划定课税范围
属人税收管辖权
Resident Jurisdiction
国家有权对本国公民或居民取 得的所有收入和所有财产征税， 无论其收入从何处取得，财产 存在于哪个国家
但是，这一方法使乙国独占了200万美元利润的 税收管辖权，从而使甲国的税收受到了影响。
3、抵免法（method of tax
credit)
是指居住国政府，允许本国居民在本国税 法规定的限度内，用已缴非居住国政府的 所得税和一般财产税税额，抵免应汇总缴 本国政府税额的一部分。
该方法的指导思想是承认收入来源地管辖 权的优先地位，但不放弃居民管辖权。
=（该居民来自世界范围内的总收益
– 该居民就其他境外所得已交外国政府 所得税税额）*本国税率
例1：假定设在居住国甲国的总公司在某一纳税 年度所获取的收益额为800万美元，它设在非居 住国乙国的子公司于同年获取的收益额为200万 美元。已知甲国的所得税率为50%，乙国的所 得税率为40%。分析如下：
在这时所谓“在本国税法规定的限度内” ，是指外国税收的抵免额不得超过国外所 得额按本国税法规定税率计算的应纳税额 。
例如，在上例中该公司已向乙国交纳的税 款为80万美元，它并没有超过来源于乙国 的 收 益 按 甲 国 的 税 率 计 算 的 应 纳 税 额 100 万美元（200万X50%），所以该公司在 向甲国政府办理纳税申报时已交乙国税款 80万美元可以全部得以抵免。具体来说， 该公司应向甲国政府交纳税款为
（1）若不采取任何免除国际重复征税的方法，则 该公司承担的总税负计算如下：
风险管理程序英文版
风险管理程序英文版1.0 PurposeThe purpose of this procedure is to provide for a system and instructions, and to assign responsibilities for identifying and evaluating risks.2.0 ScopeThis procedure applies to risks related to the QMS.3.0 Procedure3.1 The need for risk identification is determined on the basis of information and trendsregarding the performance and effectiveness of the QMS. In particular:●Regulatory requirements●Product safety requirements and considerations●Product and service nonconformities●Process problems and nonconformities●Supplier quality performance records●Reject and scrap rates●Field service records●On time delivery performance●Production equipment maintenance records●Customer feedback and complaints●Quality management system audit records●Data loss/corruption incidents, network outages, etc.3.2 Risks are identified and evaluated when quality performance data indicates that there are trends of decreasing quality capability and/or effectiveness of the qualitymanagement system. For example: increasing incidence of product nonconformity; excessive equipment problems; or increasing number of audit findings against the same quality system process or department.3.3 Initiating risk management projects3.3.1 Risks are identified, evaluated and addressed in DaMei Risk Management module; within a framework of a Risk Management Project.3.3.2 Risk management projects may be proposed by any organizational unit and any employee in the company. Requests for initiating a risk management project are submitted to Management representative or General manager, as appropriate. Only Management representative and General manager have the authority to initiate, or approve the initiation of risk management projects. This is to prioritize and direct resources where risk control is most urgent.4.0 Risk management project4.1 Risk management projects are initiated in DaMei Risk Management module using electronic form EF-380-1 Risk Project.4.2 When initiating a new project, select in form EF-380-1 the risk assessment method that will be used for the project:1) Hazard Evaluation: This is a method for evaluating hazards and related harms, rather than estimating the actual risks. The method is based on evaluating hazardous situations and associated harms (risk cases), and existing controls that reduce the likelihood of the hazardous situation occurring and/or reduce the severity of the harm. The evaluation results in a decisionwhether additional controls need to be implemented to further reduce risk. Although no a full fledged risk analysis, it is an excellent method for demonstrating 'risk based thinking' without going into formal and complex risk analysis studies. This method should not be used when evaluating risks related to the safety of medical devices.2) Risk Matrix Analysis: This is a structured, formal method for assessing risks using a riskmatrix. The risk matrix for the project is defined using a template provided in formEF-380-01 (click the Risk Matrix tab in the form). This method is often referred to in technical literature as a Preliminary Hazard Analysis (PHA). It is a top-down approach, using a list of known hazards as input for the risk analysis. The risk matrix method is the most flexible and versatile, as it can be applied to any product, process or system, and does not require detailed knowledge about the system to be analyzed. Where appropriate, the risk matrix Analysis method should be used when evaluating risks related to the safety of medical devices.Other Method: Select this item when some other risk assessment method will be used, for example: Failure Mode Effects Analysis (FMEA), Failure Mode, Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Points (HACCP), etc.4.3 Risk management projects are periodically reviewed to ensure that they remain relevant and up to date. Review dates are scheduled, and the review are documented in form EF-380-1 in the 'Reviews' block.5.0 Hazards5.1 Hazards are conditions, circumstances, practices or other'things' that can be a source of harm or loss. Hazards do not cause harms; they just make harms possible. Hazards are usually constant, i.e., they are always there, unless the hazard is completely removed.5.2 For each risk management project identify all relevant hazards and enter them into DaMei Risk Management module (select the project and enter hazards into the 'Hazards' grid).。
ch14Country Risk Management(跨国公司,Kirt C. Butler)
Kirt C. Butler, Multinational Finance, South-Western College Publishing, 3e
14-1
The risks of international business
Political risk
- is the risk that a sovereign host government will unexpectedly change the rules of the game under which businesses operate
Chapter 14
Country Risk Management
14.1 Country Risk Assessment
14.2 Strategies for Managing Country Risk
14.3 Country Risks and the Cost of Capital
14.4 Summary
14-8
Strategies for managing country risk
Negotiate
the environment with the host country prior to investment - The investment environment
• • • • • • •
Kirt C. Butler, Multinational Finance, South-Western College Publishing, 3e
14-3
Financial risk
Examples
of financial risks
- Currency risk - Interest rate risk
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- Loss is outside the influence of the insured
Negotiate the environment with the host country prior to investment
- The investment environment - The financial environment
Structure foreign operations to minimize country risk while maximizing return
14-6
Country risks
Africa
Asia
Europe
A1
Australia Switzerland
UK
A2 Botswana HK Japan Germany S. Korea Italy
A3 Mauritius China Namibia Thailand
Cyprus Czech Rep
14-5
Assessments of country risks
- Bank of America - Business Environment Risk Intelligence - Control Risks Information Services - Dun and Bradstreet - Economist Intelligence Unit - Euromoney - Institutional Investor - Moody’s Investor Services - Org for Econ Co-operation and Development - Political Risk Services - Standard and Poor’s
Chapter 14
Country Risk Management
14.1 Country Risk Assessment 14.2 Strategies for Managing Country Risk 14.3 Country Risks and the Cost of Capital 14.4 Summary
- Repatriation restrictions - Currency inconvertibility
14-14
Political risk insurers
Government export credit agencies
- U.S. Overseas Private Investment Corporation - U.K. Export Credits Guarantee Department
International
- World Bank • Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency
Private
- Lloyd’s of London - American International Group (AIG)
14-15
Political risk insurance
14-1
The risks of international business
Political risk
- is the risk that a sovereign host government will unexpectedly change the rules of the game under which businesses operate
- This creates an agency conflict as managers serve as shareholders’ agents
14-17
The evidence on country risks and investors’ required returns
- Whether a particular country risk is diversifiable depends on whether investors are locally or globally diversified
From managers’ perspective, country risks are usually not diversifiable
Obtain political risk insurance
14-12
Insurable risks…
- Loss is identifiable in time, place, cause, and amount
- A large number of individuals or businesses are exposed to the risk, ideally in an i.i.d. (independently and identically distributed) manner
- Expropriation risk - Disruptions in operations - Protectionism - Blocked funds - Loss of intellectual property rights
14-3
Financial risk
Examples of financial risks
Sources of country risk
Macro risks - affect all firms in a host country
Micro risks - specific to an industry, firm or project in a country
Whether a particular country risk is macro or micro affects the diversifiability of the risk
14-7
Strategies for managing country risk
1. Negotiate the environment with the host country prior to investment - The investment environment - The financial environment
Sudan
N. Korea Ukraine
Zimbabwe Pakistan Yugoslavia
Mid East
Kuwait UAE Israel
Saudi Arabia
Egypt Jordan Iran Syria Turkey Iraq
Americas Canada
USA
Chile Trinidad Mexico Panama Brazil Peru Venezuela Haiti aica Argentina Cuba Ecuador
MNCs are self-insured if their risk exposures are diversified across a large number of countries
14-16
Country risks & the cost of capital
From shareholders’ perspective, only nondiversifiable country risks should affect the MNC’s cost of capital
- Currency risk - Interest rate risk - Inflation risk - Unexpected changes in the current
account balance - Unexpected changes in the balance
of trade
14-4
Negotiate the environment with the host country prior to investment - The investment environment
• Taxes • Labor issues • Concessions • Obligations and restrictions • Provisions for planned investment divestiture • Performance assurances and remedies • International arbitration of disputes
2. Structure foreign operations to minimize country risk while maximizing return
3. Obtain political risk insurance
14-8
Strategies for managing country risk
14-9
Strategies for managing country risk
Negotiate the environment with the host country prior to investment - The investment environment - The financial environment
• Cash flow remittance • Access to capital markets • Subsidized financing • Corporate governance environment • Performance assurances and remedies • International arbitration of disputes