国际贸易理论外文翻译文献
国际贸易理论外文翻译文献(文档含英文原文和中文翻译)新制度主义与新贸易理论：反思比较优势和贸易政策新制度主义与新贸易理论比较优势理论在国际贸易理论中一直占主导地位。
这一理论的主张，除了少数负面例子外，大多数国家的贸易都因此而变好。
虽然如此，这个理论也承认（斯托尔珀和萨缪尔森1941）贸易的收益因资本和劳动力份额的多少而变动，并且个体因素会带来更大的损失。
然而，失去的因素，原则上在贸易中仍然可以得到充分补偿。
虽然这些现象在实践中由于政治经济原因是很少发生的。
比较优势理论起到了促进自由贸易和全球化的中心作用。
虽然大多数专业经济学家都接受这个理论，但其中还有一些经济学家就充分就业的存在和市场能力对国家生产（帕利2003得）及全球配置理论的假设产生质疑。
制度经济学家也质疑其体制形式不很严密，特别是跨国公司及其复杂的对外合作对贸易格局的影响。
比较优势贸易理论中的批评也越来越多地夹杂在政治层面。
因此，更多的政治家和市民质疑贸易全球化到底能带来多大的利益。
特别是，越来越担心未来境外生产及外包很可能对人们的福利产生巨大影响。
本文探讨了当前戈莫里和鲍莫尔（2000）和萨缪尔森（2004）最近的工作 -GBS- 研究了这些问题。
特别是观点的一致性，本文着重在挖掘和澄清戈莫里以及鲍莫尔在经济问题上的分歧。
GBS在比较优势的均衡理论（尤其是萨缪尔森）在传统理论中占有优势，同时它还探讨了如何改变全球生产模式从而带来贸易收益分配的影响。
他们发现在全球化贸易中隐含着比传统贸易理论更多的东西。
GBS的研究结果也揭示了一些新古典贸易理论与贸易理论和制度主义融合的东西。
这种衔接工作表现在许多层面，从贸易的政策上来分析。
首先，贸易扩张未必是双赢的结果，系统和贸易的扩大可能造成单赢的结果。
第二，GBS的论点强调了国家与国家之间的技术转让和生产方法的交流，这些转让的背后隐含的现象对产品周期理论的链接是息息相关的。
三，规模收益递增（IRTS）发挥核心作用。
戈莫里 - 贸易冲破鲍莫尔的分歧与后凯恩斯经济学长期以来一直强调的IRTS影响（卡尔多1981）相连。
凯恩斯主义者往往强调通过Verdoorn规律，生产率的增长在于市场规模和经营的动态IRTS。
第四，GBS看到了战略性贸易政策，即从贸易中获取更大收益，并与制度主义政策思想的精神相联系。
同样重要的是了解GBS贸易理论的重新思考，这些与“贸易保护主义”无关。
他们当中有很多都赞成贸易会给各国带来利益。
然而，开放的问题将是如何让这些收益的分配随时间的改变而改变。
这就提出了新的重要政策问题，也就是可以采取什么措施，最大限度地从美国的贸易利益中共享。
因此这个问题也是他们最终关心的东西。
最后，GBS进行的微观经济理论分析，是传统贸易理论的基础条件。
这意味着他们反思自身条件的同时，也加强了他们对传统贸易理论的批评。
在这方面可以用宏观经济评论（布莱克2005年a，2005年b）和有关的贸易赤字对就业和投资的影响（比文斯2004年;布莱克2006）进行实证批评。
在这方面，各国之间可能存在重大分歧。
美国公司可以自由选择他们在全球基础上的经营策略，没有考虑到美国的国家利益。
事实上，考虑到美国的国家利益时，考虑的将会违反信托义务，因为管理人员有责任为股东价值最大化。
截然不同，在中国，国民政府对企业施加重大控制，是把国家利益和经营策略的因素考虑在一起。
从全国来看，这意味着相对美国中国是有利的，但在中国公司的股东，就没有美国公司的股东那么好了。
第三个方面需要注意的是汇率政策。
这个问题是不解决GBS的，但在工作中隐含着。
GBS的分析是基于纯粹的贸易理论，只是从汇率问题上看，它是很抽象的。
实际上，它假定了汇率按购买力平价值。
但是，如果汇率偏离这一点，他们可能会引起显著的扭曲。
在一个IRTS环境中，各国可以使用被低估的汇率给国内企业带来竞争优势。
被低估的汇率降低出口价格，增加了进口价格，从而增加产品的需求和产量。
在这种方式下，被低估的汇率可以帮助企业的平均成本向下移动从而获得执行的比较优势。
因此，各国可以战略性地利用汇率捕捉行业，它们并没有像以前那样的活动。
此外，制造业企业，是知识，技能和资本集群，产业和企业的聚集。
一旦企业和行业被摧毁它们是很昂贵的并且难以重组，即使汇率的估值得到纠正，这也将使他们不可能会重生。
因此，汇率集下的评估可能对全球生产（帕利2003）结构带来永久性的影响。
而且，即使在传统的贸易理论上，让汇率根据估值上升，比较优势和生产分配不当也会带来（布莱克2005年a）偏差。
比较优势是一个平衡的贸易理论。
因此，如果一个国家有一个被低估的汇率和贸易盈余并持续，这意味着它是一些出口产品国，它缺乏同样具有比较优势的产品，该国持续的贸易赤字是运行一些进口产品，它可能是真正有比较优势产品。
失业的存在，它是由纯贸易理论假设的，被低估的汇率可用于战略思想中，来挖走从其他国家的总需求，从而降低其他国家牺牲的失业问题。
很久以前，这种可能性是确定的。
琼罗宾逊（[1937] 1947，156-70）把这种政策称为“乞丐，我的邻国”的失业救济。
（9）其底线是，汇率问题对全球的生产和就业成果显著。
在一个没有IRTS的国度里，被低估的生产会偏离比较优势的汇率。
在与IRTS国度里，交易，估值率可用来永久性的改变平衡和锁定在全球生产中的新格局。
这些影响是汇率改变的贸易政策和贸易协议的核心部分。
然而目前，美国政策制定者已经拒绝交换，理由是市场干预的存在。
这项政策的立场是理性的，其证据不足。
有充分理由相信，外汇市场倾向于从众行为的许多理论依据。
也有较强的经验性证据表明，汇率偏离均衡水平的理论上保证- 无论是作为购买力平价或汇率与经常帐赤字持续一致的定义。
比这更糟糕的是，在某些情况下（尤其是东亚经济体）其他国家在战略上操纵本国货币汇率，这意味着美国经济正在外溢，失去产业和费尽了巨额贸易赤字来增加未来的负担。
另一种形式的战略方针是国内采购。
在这里，国家可以直接向政府购买本国的公司，从而扩大在这些公司中生产。
在这种方式下，他们可以帮助企业向下移动平均成本曲线，从而成为全球拥有低成本的企业，并抢得全球领导地位。
各国还可以从事劳动剥削取得优势。
在这种情况下，他们转变了企业的平均成本的日程表，而不是沿着它移动。
这对与中国来说，是美国工会在劳动剥削，为从事贸易优势而获得被告贸易直接相关的。
劳动剥削是可怕的和不能接受的。
然而，降低企业的成本问题即降低提供医疗和社会保险法的合法方式。
在美国，这种保险是通过提供就业机会，使其成为工作的费用来解决的。
这引起了美国的生产成本上升，美国生产商和竞争力处于不利地位，所以鼓励境外工作。
提供并通过了国家保险制度，是由联邦资助的税收，这有可能减少这种激励医疗保险，但也同样适用于社会保障资金。
事实上，在某种程度上它是由全球企业利润征税资助的，承担的费用部分由海外生产的利润来填补。
总之，GBS的贸易分析提供了一个集合的政策，还有一些与历史上被称为什么工业或相似的微观经济竞争力的政策的理由。
但是，提出的政策不涉及决策者“挑选赢家”。
这一种东西，没有理由相信他们能做到。
相反，政策应该被看作是确立正确的经济气候和气候结构，即法律，规则和制度。
其中商业经营，应采取措施鼓励企业创新和投资，并为工人提高他们的技能。
结构应该也能确保公司的利益与国家利益相一致。
大气是指对执政的经济条件，这应该有利于国内的业务表现。
气氛被认为是促进充分就业和充分需求方面，这包括扩张性的宏观经济政策和汇率维持竞争力的价值政策。
GBS贡献贸易的辩论在进入GBS的主题内容分析之前，我们应该区分贸易中存在的一些批评他们的理论。
首先，他们的论据不是有关贸易收入分配的不利影响。
这些影响是广泛的被理解，而对于萨缪尔森所作的开创性贡献，在他的贸易理论与沃尔夫冈斯托尔珀（1941年）的工作领域中体现。
据斯托尔帕-萨缪尔森定理，一个国家打开贸易时，该因素是相对稀缺的，在交易前失去了平衡。
在美国而言，这意味着美国工人失去他们含蓄地成为一个全球劳动力市场的一部分。
这种收入再分配的效果仍然执行，但它是有别于由金紫荆星章所提出的新的忧虑。
由GBS新问题提出的是比较优势的动态演变与从贸易收益的分配造成的影响。
比较优势理论认为可以从整个世界经济贸易中获取收益。
然而，各国之间的收益分配上的供求情况，是贸易条件而决定的（即进口和出口的相对价格），而这些条件可以改变。
约翰逊早期的工作（1954 至1955）和巴格瓦蒂（1958）关于贸易条件和贸易利益分配的影响很大。
萨缪尔森（2004）改变的重点和探讨的经济影响很受关注。
人们普遍认为所有国家都从其他国家的技术进步中受益，因为这样扩大了全球的生产可能性边界（PPF）。
但是，事实证明，并不一定是所有国家都会有利益。
这是一个重要的理论发现。
戈莫里和鲍莫尔（2000）探讨类似主题的环境中，企业也有这样的平均单位成本下降的规模内部经济随着生产量的增加。
像萨缪尔森（2004）模型中，他们充分就业是一个世界，让他们认同的问题是与贸易，而不是失业问题。
引入失业只有他们确定化合物的关注。
规模经济意味着每种产品由一个国家生产。
戈莫里和鲍莫尔认为所有国家都获得相同的技术。
哪个国家获得生产什么产品，然后取决于所到达的成本曲线向下移动。
多个平衡点的存在意味着它只是偶然，实际equilibriura是全球产出的最大化，而当时整个国家的生产效率不高。
例如，一个国家可能会在大量的行业领先，从而阻止他们进入新的行业。
然而，生产规模过小，在这些行业中又失去了较大的规模效益。
在这种情况下，重新安排全球生产模式可以受惠，扩大产业规模，减少一些在其他方面的一切支出。
通过举例来说明，考虑在这样的情况下，有两个相同的国家和四个行业，每个国家都有充分就业。
假设初始均衡控制的行业有1-3个，行业和国家两个控制4个。
在这种情况下，规模过小，产业1-3个，太大。
一个优越的生产计划，扩大全球收入是让每个国家生产两种商品，从而扩大生产和产业1-3并承包4中。
国家效率低下，如果能得到更糟糕的不同成本曲线。
这种差异可能存在，因为在技术差异上赋予了一个国家，或由于“外部”规模经济所产生的集聚效应的绝对优势。
这种积极的集聚效应出现，个别企业效率的提高作为整个行业的扩展。
产业扩张降低了单个企业的成本。
在这种情况下，不仅可以有一个全球生产分布不均（戈莫里- 鲍莫尔低效率），但而且生产也会错误投入到低劣的技术和成本较高的国家。
如果一个国家获得的成本高，效率低，那么向下移动平均成本曲线很多，从而成为全球的低成本生产和收购“执政”的成本优势。
尽管其他国家可能更加有效，他们锁定的第一个国家开始向下移动了它的平均成本曲线。
另一个例子是，如果一些行业赚取更高的利润价值，在这种情况下，各国将有动力夺取这些行业，以赚取更高的价值。
国际贸易 经济 外文翻译 外文文献 英文文献 美国纺织品和服装产业的贸易自由化和战略调整模式
Trade liberalization and patterns of strategicadjustment in the US textiles and clothing industryBelay SeyoumU.S.A.International Business Review，Issue 16 ,2007Belay SeyoumNova Southeastern University, 3301 College Avenue, Ft. Lauderdale, FL 33314, USA Received 2 December 2005; received in revised form 17 April 2006, 11 October 2006, 23 November 2006; accepted13 December 2006The overall environment facing the US TC industry will be one of rapidly changing market conditions and technological innovation. With the phase out of quotas and growing number of trade agreements, the US TC industry is being exposed to intense competition in export and domestic markets. This is likely to lead domestic industries/labor to demand intervention by national governments to mitigate the adverse impact of trade liberalization (Standbury & Vertinksy, 2004).In spite of the substantial job losses, the US TC industry remains technologically advanced partly due to increased productivity resulting from advances in technology and design capabilities. Textile production is capital intensive and modern technology is essential to meet the increasing for high-quality products. Over the last few years, US textiles and apparel firms have substantially increased their investment to maintain modern manufacturing facilities as well as improve production and marketing capabilities in order to maximize their inherent advantages to market proximity. In apparel, low skill production jobs have moved to low-cost locations offshore while the more skilled ones have been retained. To successfully adapt to the new environment, US TC industries need to capitalize on their sources of competitive advantage. They need to develop a more flexible operational arrangement, meet high standards in product innovation and generally develop a more change-seeking business culture (Kilduff, 2005).An important survival tool for US TC firms is to expand their potential market by offering new product designs and product categories. Manufacturers must try to bring a steady stream of products to market that are in line with the taste, preferences of theconsumer. They can also expand their market potential by offering new product categories. Two of the fastest growing apparel segments in the US, for example, have been the women’s plus and men’s big and tall segments (Driscoll, 2004). Plus-size apparel marketing was estimated at $47 billion in 2005 accounting for 20% of total apparel market. It is important to identify the firm’s target customers and assess whether the firm is successfully addressing their needs.US TC firms should target a narrow segment of the market that provides the best opportunity for success. In textiles, the focus should be on a few specialized segments such as carpets, nonwovens and technical textiles. Similarly, apparel producers should increase their focus on core products, reduce vertical integration to shed overhead costs, and establish alliances with other firms to consolidate resources and increase market share.Finally, in view of rising incomes and high growth rates in many developing countries such as China, Brazil, and India, there are potential export market opportunities for US textile and apparel products. US export interests may be served by seeking improved access to the retail distribution systems of developing countries. US textile firms should also be able to use Mexico to export to the European Union and other countries, taking advantage of the Mexico-EU trade agreement. Since the conclusion of NAFTA, a number of Asian and European firms have produced certain products in Mexico in order to export to the US market.This paper suggests a demand pull model as a basis for developing a network structure in the clothing industry. In a demand pull model, consumer demand is the driver of sales unlike the supply push model whereby the manufacturer pushes goods to the retailer regardless of consumer demand.Retail companies have become powerful due to their sufficient capital and marketing expertise to build loyalty among consumers. They are the lead firm in view of their central role in the organizational network. The lead clothing retailer integrates industrial capabilities such as sourcing of textiles, design, product branding and its relations with consumers enables it to keep abreast of fashion consumption trends.The lead firm conveys its requirements to these changing trends (changes in style, material requirements) to its suppliers or subcontractors (Table 7). It also provides assistance with the purchasing of capital equipment and technology necessary to produce apparel in accordance with market demand. The fragmented webs of suppliers and subcontractors are bound together through information technology, online data sharing, joint product development, and collaborative forecasting, planning and replenishment activities. Retailers will hold less inventory as shipments become smaller and more frequent since point of sale data is directly transmitted to the manufacturer/supplier who will produce and ship garments as it is needed. This model shows the role of the retailer as an intermediary integrating the functions of design, textile sourcing, branding and as facilitator of apparel production through a web of suppliers/subcontractors. Such restructuring through technological improvements and information technology is one means of succeeding in an increasingly competitive environment. The horizontally structured, mass production methods no longer ensure future competitiveness.The lion’s share of the benefits from quota elimination is expec ted to accrue to China. Its low labor cost, high productivity, range and flexibility of services as well as efficient supplier networks will make China the supplier of choice. About 87% of apparelexecutives that participated in a cotton sourcing summit in Miami in February 2004, agreed that China will soon account for 50–90% of all apparel sold in the US market (National Labor Committee, 2004). This means rationalization of production and a massive consolidation of vendors. Other winners are likely to include India and Pakistan in narrow segments of the TC industry. The elimination of quotas is also likely to lead to lower prices for consumers in view of the absence of quota costs which is often a significant part of the cost of TC sold in the US market. Well-known brands may still hold market value since they are not subject to retail price deflation. It is important for TC firms to evaluate their internal capabilities such as sourcing, manufacturing, logistics, transportation etc. in order to develop an action plan for the post-quota world.Exporters from Latin America, Africa and the Caribbean are likely to lose market share to China since they largely compete on price (not quality) and lack the capability to produce high value added products. Even with the introduction of safeguards on a range of products that are of export interest to these countries, their US market share has declined since the phase out of quotas. With the complete removal of quotas in 2008, it is difficult for these countries to compete on price. Since the US government lifted quotas in 2002 on 29 categories, for example, China’s market share (in these categories) jumped from just 9% (2002) to 65% (2003) while prices paid by US retailers (for apparel from China) dropped by 48% (National Labor Committee, 2004). In cotton dressing gowns (quotas removed) China’s share in 2003 jumped from 25% to 39% while that of Caribbean countries fell from 13% to a mere 3%. In the first 12 months after the phase out of quotas, China’s market share in apparel rose by 59% in value while that of many Central and South American countries showed a sharp decline.What are the implications for TC firms in countries that are vulnerable to competition from China? First, they should capitalize on their proximity to the US market. Their ability to offer lower transport cost, lower lead times as well as duty free entry to the US market may attract the fashion-oriented segment of the US industry. This will depend on access to good local transport infrastructure to get goods to market as well as advanced telecommunications systems to link suppliers and customers. Local firms and governments need to collaborate in creating a climate which is conducive to business and to develop infrastructure to attract and retain TC industries that are so vital in generating exports and employment.Secondly, low wages do not necessarily provide a comparative advantage with respect to China. Firms should develop new capabilities in areas in which China does not have a comparative advantage (yarn, and silk non-apparel). This requires, inter alia, investment in modern production methods and development of competitive sources of local raw materials. Even in product areas in which China is expanding its exports, developing country suppliers that enhance their skills, technology, supply chains and marketing capabilities (through joint ventures, licensing arrangements) faster than China can still maintain their shares to the US market.Thirdly, an important strategic consideration that limits the competitive impact of China is the need on the part of multinationals to diversify their risk portfolios. US manufacturers and retailers are likely to adopt a diversified risk adjusted sourcing strategy that balances cost, speed to market as well as political and economic stability. They may not be prepared to rely on China for critical inputs beyond a certain threshold of risk. Furthermore, Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean could be attractive options for US companies in some fashion sensitive segments of the industry where quick response or fast turnaround is important.Finally, existing US rules of origin requirements to qualify for free access to the US market have had unintended consequences. One of the requirements is that they have to use US yarn and fabric. This has had the effect of making their exports less competitive. The US may have to modify its rules of origin to allow developing countries to import from Asia or other competitive sources without losing their preferential status.美国纺织品和服装产业的贸易自由化和战略调整模式贝蕾·塞尤姆美国国际商务评论，第16期,2007年贝蕾·塞尤姆诺娃东南大学，学院大道3301，劳德代尔堡，佛罗里达33314，美国2005年12月2日收到稿件；分别于2006年4月17日、2006年10月11日和2006年11月23日收到修改稿件；2006年12月13日正式录用美国纺织品和服装行业面临的是一个市场条件快速变化、科技不断创新的环境。
国际服务贸易外文文献翻译
国际服务贸易外文翻译文献(含：英文原文及中文译文)文献出处：《World Development》，2015，12（1）：35-44.英文原文The research of international service trade and economic growth theoryChakraborty Kavin1 IntroductionThe study of the relation between international trade and economic growth is one of the most active issues. Since 1980s, the world has been in transition from national economy orientating towards natural resources and manufacturing industry to global and regional economy orientating towards information resources and service industry. After the signature of GA TS in1994, the institutional arrangements on liberalizing service trade result in a world-wide involvement division and exchanges of service trade, and it is undoubtedly that the positive interaction between service trade and investment leads to economic growth. But the theoretical research on service trade lags behind practice.Is it a statistic phenomenon or a universal rule of economic growth? To approach the above two issues from theoretical and empirical perspective is of great value to policy-making.For the proposition of that "International service trade will drive economic growth". Theoretical analysis shows that although service tradeis not a direct interpretative variable to economic growth, it can effect economic growth indirectly through other growing factors and technology upgrade, but the ways and mechanisms are different in different stages. In a certain stage of economic development, service trade (including investment) will have static and dynamic effect on factors supply and technology upgrade in one county, which will lead to the domestic alteration of resources condition structure. It is the enterprises that select industry structure, technology structure and trade structure according to dynamic alteration way of comparative technology structure and trade structure, which will ultimately promote evolution of economic growth gradually. So far as operational mechanism of service trade and investment is concerned, service trade affects factors supply in one country by physical capital accumulating effect, human capital effect, technology upgrade effect, institutional transition effect, employment effect and externality of technology, then influences the upgrade of industrial structure, the upgrade of technological structure and the transition of mode of economic growth. It is obvious that dynamic effect is greater than static effect; that external effect is playing more important role than internal effect; and that technology spillover effect of foreign direct investment in service industry is greater than that of service trade in a narrow sense (including across-border supply, consumption abroad and movement of natural person).For the research of mechanism about how service trade drive economic growth. Firstly, the paper verifies the causality between service trade and economic growths concerning different economic bodies and the representative countries. The results show that there are causalities between international service trade and economic growth in the whole world, in the developed countries, in the US and in china. In the developing countries, service trade is the Granger cause of economic growth; In the whole world and the developing countries, economic growth is the Granger cause of service trade; In the US, service export is the Granger cause of economic growth, and economic growth is the Granger cause of service import. On this basis, it is concluded that the opening of service industry will benefit economic growth in one country. Secondly, in order to explore on how the service trade and investment act on economic growth, empirical studies are employed to explain the case of US and that of China. The results show that the routes by which service trade affects economic growth in the US can be rowed as follows from more significant to less: employment effect, human capital effect, physical capital effect, technology effect, institution effect. The results of empirical analysis of China can be summarized that: the routes by which service export affects economic growth can be rowed as follows: employment effect, physical capital effect, institution effect, human capital effect, technology effect; the routs by which service import affectseconomic growth can be rowed as follows: technology effect, institution effect, employment effect, human capital effect, physical capital effect; the routes by which FDI in service affects economic growth can be rowed as follows: technology effect, human capital effect, institution effect, employment effect, physical capital effect. Moreover, the effect of FDI in service is stronger than service import, and the effect of service import is stronger than service export.According to the empirical test in this paper, the conclusion can be drawn as follows: service trade in a narrow sense will have static and dynamic effects on factor supply in one country through import and export of service, FDI in service industry is one of the most important cross-border transactions and is another important channel which will affect the transition of advantages on factor supply in one country. It should be emphasized that the above-mentioned channels will have different effects on countries at different stages of economic development. Whether the roles can be brought into play or not depends on given restraints. The input output of factors themselves cannot form a clear function, but will interact together and act on economic growth hand in hand through numerous feedback chain.Chinese economy is now undergoing transformation from elementary age to middle age of industrialization. Service trade and investment in current period have both advantages and disadvantages.Based on these judgments, we propose that China should pursue a policy favoring protectionism on management of service trade and adopt relevant countermeasures as follows. Scientific development view should be formed with an eye to harmonizing development of three industries so as to lay a solid industries foundation for service trade; The strategic programming should be stipulated and the market of service trade should be opened gradually; The rule of international transfer of service trade should be mastered and environment of utilizing foreign investment on service industry should be improved.As the characteristics of the world's service-oriented economy have gradually emerged, service trade originating from the upgrading of industrial structure has developed rapidly, and the scale of service trade is rapidly expanding. From the statistical data, the total exports of world service trade rose rapidly from 365 billion U.S. dollars in 1980 to 377.779 billion U.S. dollars in 2008, an increase of 9.35 times. Compared with the trade of goods with a long history, service trade is a new form of trade. With the continuous increase in absolute size and relatively low levels, service trade has become a focus of attention in modern society.2 The impact of overall service trade on economic growthAccording to the WTO General Agreement on Trade in Services (GA TS), which was signed in 1994, trade in services includes Cross- border Supply, Consumption A broad, Commercial Presence, and naturalperson mobility. (Movement of Natural Persn) Four modes. The service trade of these four modes has completely different properties and characteristics. Therefore, it is difficult to establish a unified theoretical framework for service trade to affect economic growth. The corresponding literature is very rare. The only foreign documents are mainly Robinson et al. (2002), who simply regard service trade as a commodity. Trade, without taking into account differences in the four trade models, studied the economic growth effects of service trade liberalization using the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model.Using empirical methods to study the literature on the impact of overall service trade on economic growth is more, but such studies are mostly domestic scholars. Research shows that the average contribution of China's overall service trade to economic growth is 18.9%.3 Effect of Service Trade in Different Industries on Economic GrowthAt present, the literature on the impact of industry trade in service trade on economic growth is mostly concentrated in such service sectors as finance, telecommunications, and health care. These studies have basically reached a relatively unanimous conclusion that the opening of the service sector or the increase in productivity can significantly promote economic growth. . For example, studies by Beck et al. (1998), M urinde & Ryan (2003), and Eschenbach (2004) suggest that the opening of the financial sector has, to a certain extent, broken the monopoly of domesticfinancial markets and prompted the orderly competition of financial markets. On the normal development track, productivity has improved, and it has finally led to economic growth in the country. Kim (2000) studied the relationship between the development of service trade in the distribution sector and the growth of total factor productivity (TFP) using Korea's input-output data. The results show that the liberalization of service trade not only significantly promoted its own TFP. The promotion also promoted the improvement of total factor productivity in the related manufacturing sector. The total factor productivity growth brought about by service trade almost covered the entire economic sector.4 Effect of Service Trade on Economic Growth by Different Trading ModesThere are few literatures on specific transaction models and theoretical studies on the impact of trade in services on economic growth. Carr et al. (2001) & M arkusen et al. (2005) theoretically examined the commercial existence model by means of the CGE model. The impact of the trade in services on economic growth shows that the opening up of trade in services is an important source of the increase in economic welfare of a country. From the perspective of economic welfare, the opening up of trade in services is a general trend. Subsequently, the use of CGE models to theoretically examine the impact of service trade on economic growth began to prevail. For example, Rutherford et al. (2005)used the CGE model to evaluate Russia's WTO accession effects, and Ko nan &Maskus (2006) used CGE models. The potential effects of Tunisia's elimination of barriers to trade in services were studied. Their conclusions indicate that the increase in the level of economic welfare in one country can benefit from the opening up of the service market, while the elimination of FDI market access barriers in the service sector is a pattern of four trades. The most important liberalization measures are the main sources of increased welfare in a country. There are a lot of literatures on the relationship between service trade and economic growth in specific models using empirical methods. In the four modes of trade in services, commercial presence is the most important one, and from the point of view of data availability, although statistical data is still not very accurate, commercial existence of service trade is based on service industry FDI as a carrier. To achieve this, researchers can use service industry FDI data to characterize the scale of service trade in this model, and this type of trade model has received more attention. Among them, Markusen (1989) believes that the existence of commercial trade in services has two positive and negative effects. The positive effect is that competition in the service sector has led to an increase in domestic demand for the sector’s production factors, which is conducive to output growth. The effect of market size and negative effects means that the intensified competition in the domestic market of service industries has led to the withdrawal ofdomestic service-oriented enterprises from the market. The study by Markusen (1989) shows that the effect of market size after the opening of the service market far exceeds the crowding-out effect. After offsetting the crowding-out effect, it can still promote the productivity improvement of the non-service sector and further lead to the structure of domestic trade in goods. The changes, those sectors that were previously low in productivity and dependent on imports, will evolve into high-productivity export sectors, which is quite similar to the latest research findings on the interactive development of producer services and manufacturing. Hoekman (2006) and Hoekman (2006) used India as an example to examine the impact of the existence of commercial trade in services in the finance, telecommunications, and transportation sectors on the competitiveness of the goods export sector, and believe that these sectors have been liberalized. The level of soft facilities has been increased, which in turn has greatly reduced the operating costs of the downstream product manufacturing sector, which has increased the export competitiveness. With the inefficiency of the domestic service industry, the unfavorable pattern is reversed with the help of commercial presence of service trade. Feasible choice. Guerrieri et al. (2005) took the EU as the research object and analyzed the role of commercial trade in services for knowledge accumulation and economic growth. The study concluded that the openness of the service market or the relaxation of domesticservice regulations has positively promoted economic growth. It was found that the imported service items may be more able to promote economic growth than the domestic same service items due to high technological content.5 Possible Future Research DirectionsIt is not difficult to find from the above-mentioned documents that since the development of service trade started late, research on the growth of service trade began to rise gradually from the 1980s, and more than 20 years of research in this area is in the ascendant. With the further enhancement of the status of trade in services, the possible directions for future research will generally include the following aspects.From the point of view of research methodology, classification of service trade can be studied. As the theory of goods trade has gradually matured, the development practice of service trade still calls for the birth of the theory of service trade. Helpman and Markusen, international economists, expressed on different occasions that the difficulty in establishing the theoretical system of service trade lies in the fact that there are large differences in various types of service trades, and it is difficult for researchers to overcome the gap between them. Classifying service trade according to certain standards and exploring the impact of various types of service trade on economic growth is a possible direction for future research.From the perspective of the research subjects, it is possible to study China’s service trade and economic growth. China’s GDP has already ranked second in the world. However, the service industry’s added value accounted for only 40% of GDP, which is obviously not commensurate with the status of an economic power. In addition, the trade in services is still relatively small compared to the trade in goods. Under such a realistic background, what is the relationship between China's service trade and economic growth? How will service trade contribute to China's economic growth? What impact will service outsourcing have on China's economy? With China in In the next decade, how will China make service trade an engine of economic growth? From the academic point of view, economists from all countries are paying attention to China’s economic development, and China’s service trade will also be improved. It will become a research hotspot.From the perspective of research topics, it is possible to study the impact of service outsourcing on economic growth. In 2008, the scale of global service outsourcing market has reached 1.5 trillion US dollars. According to the UNCTAD (UNCT AD) speculation, the global service outsourcing market will increase by 30%-40% in the next 5-10 years.The surging service industry outsourcing is a new form of service trade. How does service outsourcing drive economic growth through employment, industrial structure upgrading, and technology spillovers?What are the differences in the impact of contracting and receiving services on economic growth in the service industry? Research on these issues will start with the development of service outsourcing to important theoretical guidance.中文译文国际服务贸易与经济增长理论与实证研究Chakraborty Kavin1 引言国际贸易与经济增长始终是国际经济学最生动的论题之一。
国际经济与贸易外文翻译外文文献英文文献.docx
国际经济与贸易外文翻译外文文献英文文献.docx外文文献翻译The effects of subjective norms on behaviour in the theory of planned behaviour: A meta-analysisMark Manning*University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts, USAA meta-analysis investigated the effects of perceived injunctive (IN) and descriptive (DN) norms on behaviour (BEH) within the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) in a sample of 196 studies. Two related correlation matrices (pairwise and listwise) were synthesized from the data and used to model the TPB relations with path analyses.Convergent evidence indicated that the relation between DN and BEH was stronger than the relation between IN and BEH. Evidence also suggested a significant direct relation between DN and BEH in the context of TPB. A suppressor effect of IN on DN in its relation with BEH was also noted? Moderator analyses indicated that the DN-BEH relation was stronger when there was more time between measures of cognition and behaviour, when behaviours were not socially approved, more socially motive and more pleasant: results were mixed in the case of the IN-BEH relation. Results imply that IN and DN are conceptually different constructs?As social beings, normative pressure inevitably affects our behaviour?Social nonns influence the way we dress, how we vote, what we buy, and a host of other behavioural decisions.Social psychologists have been exploring the influence of social norms on behaviour for decades? From AschM and Milgram s conformity- experiments (Asch, 19S6;Milgram, Bickman, & Berkowitz, 1969) through recent work by Cialdini andcolleagues(Cialdini, Reno. & Kallgren, 1990; Reno, Cialdini, & Kallgren, 1993), a substantial body of evidence has demonstrated that people conform to the judgments and behaviours of others.In experiments conducted by Cialdini and his colleagues (Cialdini et al., 1990; Reno et al., 1993), participants inferred behavioural norms for littering from environmental cues and acted in accord with these norms. The results highlight the fact that perceptions of norms, ratber than actual norms, can affect behaviour? Tlie relation between perceived norms and behaviour has receivedmuch empirical support (Borsari & Carey, 2003; Campo, Brossard. Fnizer. Marchell, Lewis, & Talbot, 2003; Gomberg, Schneider, & Dejong, 2(K)I; Grube, Morgan, & MeGree, 1986; Okun, Karoly, & Lutz,2002; Riniai & Real. 2005). However, one ofthc most influential models for predicting behaviour, the thcor>*of planned behaviour (TPB; Ajzcn, 1991), posits that rather than a direct relation between norm and behaviour, perceived nortns influence behaviour indirectly by way of behavioural intentions. Investigating the perceived norm-behaviour relation in tlic context of this theory offers insight not only into the strength of the relation, but also into the extent to which perceived norms may directly influence behaviour counter to theoretical expectations.The present study used mcta-analytic path analyses to examine, the relation between two types of perceived norms (injunctive (IN) and descriptive (DN) norms; described below) and behaviour in the context of the TPB (Ajzcn. 1991). The investigation explored the direct effects of IN and DN on behaviour as well as factors that may moderate the effect of subjective norms (SN) on behaviour?The theory of planned behaviourAccording to the TPB, the immediate antecedent of behaviour is the intention to pertbrm the behaviour (Figure 1). This behavioural intention is in turn a function of three major determinants: attitude towards the behaviour, perceived SN pertaining to the behaviour, and perceived degree of control over engaging in and ctJmpleting the behaviour (perceived behavioural control).The formation of attitudes (ATT), SN and perceived behavioural control (PBC) are respectively functions of behavioural beliefs, normative beliefs and control beliefs that a person holds with regards to the behaviour? Concerning ATT, the set of accessible beliefs that a person holds about the outcome of a behaviour will determine the evaluation of the behaviour, and thus influence the strength and direction of the ATT towards the behaviour.SN are a function of the normative beliefs that people relevant to the individual are perceived as having towards tbe behaviour coupled with the motivation of the individual to comply with the expected notins of these relevant persons? PBC is a function of the perceived factors that will influence the ability to engage in the behaviour coupled with the perception as to whether or not these factors will be present.In short, the TPB holds that favourable ATT, SN. And perceptions of control will lead to favourable intentions to engage in a given behaviour. Actual control over engaging in the behaviouris itself an important determinant? To the extent that individuals realistically appraise the amount of control that they have over the behaviour, the measure of PBC; can serve as a proxy for actual control. Perceived control is expected to have amoderating effect such that intentions will be reflected in actual behaviour to the extent that perceived control is high.The TPB has been applied successfully to a wide range of behaviours accounting for a sizable amount of variance (Armitage & Ckmner, 2001: Bamberg, Ajzen, & Schmidt,2003; Hardeman. Johnston. Johnston, Bonetti, Wareham, & Kinmonth. 2002; Povey.Wellens, & Conner, 2001; Rise. Thompson. & Verplanken, 2003). Regarding the SN construct, the theory holds that the effect of SN on behaviour is fully mediated by behavioural intentions? In other words, SN are not expected to have a direct effect (DE)on behaviour but instead influetice behaviours indirectly through their effect on intentions.Descriptive and injunctive normsTwo types of SN can be distinguished. IN are social pressures to engage in a behaviour based on the perception of what other people want you to do whereas DN are social pressures based on the observed or inferred behaviour of others? Tliis distinction has been empirically supported (Cialdini et al .,1990; Deutsch & Gerard.1955; Grube et al., 1986; Larimer & Neighbours, 2005; Larimer. Turner, Mallett. & Geisner, 2004; Reno et al.,1993; Rhodes & Courneya, 2003; White, Terry, & Hogg, 1994). Within the TPB, the SN construct was originally conceptualized as an injunctive norm (Ajzen, 1991). More recently, however, Ajzen and Fishbein (200S) have recommended including both types of normative measures in constructing planned behaviour stirveys? DN and IN will therefore be considered separately in the analyses to follow. Subjective norms-behaviour relationIn reviewing the SN construct in the planned behaviour context, Conner and Armitage(1998) have noted the lack of predictive power of the IN construct when predicting intention.Due to the paucity- of studies including DN in the planned behaviour context,conclusions regarding DN in this context are sparser. Recently, several investigators have included DN as predictors of intentions in the planned behaviour model (PBM;Fekadu &Kraft, 2002; MCiMUlan & Conner, 2(K)3; Okun et al.. 2002: Sheeran & Orbell, 1999b). Rivis and Sbeeran (2003) conducted a meta-analysis of DN in the planned behaviour context. Their analysis, based on 18 studies, demonstrated a significant relationship between DN and intention when controlling for otlier variables in the TPB.In that, these previous studies have investigated theeffects of SN on intentions, to date,no planned behaviour mcta-ana lysis has explored the potential for differences in the effects of SN on behaviour in the planned behaviour context.Deutsch and Gerard (1955) have suggested that DN and IN refer to different sources of motivation. Regarding DN, it has been shown that perceptions of behaviours of others lead one to behave in similar manners (Asch, 1956;Milgram et al., 1969). Descriptive normative information functions as a heuristic with regards to behavioural decisions offering cues as to what is appropriate behaviour iii a given situation (Cialdini et al., 1990; van Knippenberg, 2000). IN on the other iiand operate more through the role of motivation to comply with social sanctions (Ajzen, 1991;Lapinski & Rimal, 2005). To the extent that individuals are motivated to comply with perceived behavioural expectations of relevant referents, they avoid social sanctions?Though several studies have looked at the effect of one or botli types of norms on particular behaviours, there has yet to be a single meta-analytical review that compares the relationshipbetween the two types of norms and behaviours across a spectrum of behaviours. Consequently, on a general level it is unknown whether one type of norm has a stronger effect on behaviour than the other it may be hypothesized that DN have a stronger effect on behaviour than IN because DN are activated in the immediate behavioural situation. Furthermore, processing of DN for behavioural decisions may require less cognitive effort relative to the processing of IN, in that DN may rely more on heuristic than systematic informatioprocessing?Perhaps, this advantage contributes to efficient behavioural decision?making in line with descriptive normative information. In fact, researchers have shown that conditions that facilitate the use of heuristic information-processing lead participants to act more in line with DN (Hertel, Neuhof, Theucr, & Kerr, 2000). It is expected therefore, that DN will have a stronger effect on behaviour relative to IN.Direct effect ofSN on behaviourThe TPB posits that the relationship between SN and behaviour is fully mediated by behavioural intentions (Ajzen, 1991; Ajzen & Fishbein, 1973)? However, a number of planned behaviour studies that have included normative constructs as a behavioural predictor have found direct effects of SN on behaviour (Christian & Abrams, 2004 -Study 2; Christian & Arm 让age, 2002; Christian, Armitage, & Abrams, 2003; Okun et al.,2002; Trafimow & Finlay, 2001). In most research with the TPB, the effect of the normative component on intentions has received most attention (Armitage & Conner,2001; Rivis & Sheeran, 2003) while the potential for a DE of SN onbehaviour has received little empirical or meta-analytical scrutiny.One reason to explore, the potential for a DE may be the hypothetical nature under which most people report cognitionspertaining to behaviour in planned behaviour studies? Hypothetical contexts may not accurately reflect the relations between cognitions and behaviours that are evident in real behavioural contexts (Ajzen, Brown, & Carvajal, 2004). Furthermore, when an individual reports an intention to engage in a particular behaviour in one instance, that behavioural intention may be subject to change from the instance it is formed to the moment when an opportunity for behavioural engagement arises (Ajzen, 1991).For example, in the classic linn (1965) study, hotel managers expressed little intent to allow Chinese couples to stay in their hotels, however allowed them to do so when the instance arose? It is less likely that perceptions of norms related to the behaviour will change over time. Consequently, there is the potential for reported normative perceptions to have stronger relations with behaviour compared with relations between reported behavioural intentions and behaviour. This may be reflected in the presence of a DE of SN on the particular behaviour. The present meta-analjtical synthesis provides the opportunity* to gauge the potential for a direct relation between SN and behaviour in the context of the TPB.Variation in the magnitude of the SN^ehaviour relationship The possibility of a DE of SN on behaviour within the TPB implies that there are two ways in which SN can affect behaviour. There can be the theoretically posited indirect effect on behaviour mediated through intentions, and there may be a DE on behaviour. The total effect therefore is the sum of these two effects? In accord with the prediction that DN have a stronger relation with behaviours compared to the IN-behaviour relation, it is expected that the total effect of DN on behaviour is greater than the total effect of IN on behaviour. In addition to predicteddifferences between DN and IN in their effects on behaviour, there is the potential for differences in the magnitude of the effect within each type of norm. Compatibility* between measures of cognition and behaviour and the time between measurement of cognitions and behaviour are expected to lead to differences in the magnitudes of the effects of SN on behaviour. Additionally, the potential moderating effect of three further variables will be explored;the level of social approval of the behaviour, the extent to which social motives underlie behaviour, and the extent to which a behaviour is uselial versus pleasant may all contribute to variance in the relationship between norms and behaviour.CompatibilityElements of a particular behaviour can be defined in terms of the behavioural target, the action involved in the behaviour, the context in which the behaviour is performed, and the time at wliich it is performed. The relationship between cognitive predictors of a particular behaviour and engagement in the behaviour will be stronger if behavioural elements and cognitive assessment of the behaviour are compatible (Ajzen, 1996; Ajzen & Fishbein. 1977). That is to say., for instance, that if an investigator would tike to pretlict someone's propensity* to exercise 3 days a week for half an hour, measures should assess cognitions regarding exercising 3 days a week for half an hour rather than cognitions to be healthy, or some other general cognition regarding exercise?Tenned the ”principle of compatibility0, it holds that measurements of planned behaviour variables must be compatible with the target behaviour in terms of target, action, context, and time. Given the effect of compatibility and the magnitude of the correlations betweenplanned behaviour variables and behavioural measures, it is expected that studies where the cognitive and behavioural measures are fully compatible will feature stronger relations between SN and behaviour. It is also expected that among studies where measures are more compatible, the intention mediated relation between SN and behaviour will be stronger than any unmediated relation, in line with theoretical dictates, whereas among studies that are less compatible there will potentially be greater direct effects of SN on behaviour.Time interval between measures of SN and behaviourAccording to Ajzen ( 1991 ). cognitive precursors of behaviour that are measured closer to the target behaviour should be more predictive of behavioural engagement. Due to motivational considerations, measures of the intention to engage in a particular behaviour will vary as a function of proximity to behavioural engagement (Bandura & Schunk. 1981; Kamiol & Ross, 1996; Steel & Konig, 2006) in that tlie ftirther in the future is the potential behavioural engagement, the less predictive are intentions to engage in this behaviour. As Ibe relation between stated intentions and actual behaviour decreases over time, the potential exists for SN to be relatively more predictive of behaviour. This potential is evident in light of the argument outlined above wherein SN pertaining to a behaviour are less likely to change over time compared to behavioural intentions. As such, it is expected that as the time between measurement of cognitions and behaviour increases, SN will be reflected to a greater extent in actual behaviour.Furthermore, as the relation between intentions and behaviour diminishes, it is likely that the DE of SN on behaviour will be stronger as more time passes between measures of cognition and behaviour.。
国贸毕业外文文献及其翻译
China’s Competitive Performance: A Threat To East Asian Manufactured Exports?There is growing concern in Southeast and East Asia about the competitive threat posed by China’s burgeoning exports, exacerbated by its accession to the WTO. The threat is not confined to labor-intensive products but spans the whole technological and skill range. At the same time, China is rapidly raising its imports from the region, and it is not clear whether its burgeoning exports will damage its neighbors. We examine the dime nsions of China’s competitive threat in the 1990s, benchmarking competitive performance by technology and market, and finds that market share losses are so far mainly in low technology products, with Japan being the most vulnerable market. We analyze market share changes and highlight product groups that are directly or indirectly exposed to a competitive threat. We examine intra-regional trade and find that China and its neighbors are raising high technology exports in tandem: the nature of the international production systems involved lead to complementarily rather than confrontation. China is thus acting as an engine of export growth for its neighbors in terms of direct trade. However, this will change as China moves up the value chain and takes on the activities that have driven East Asian export growth.IntroductionConcern about China’s competitive threat is widespread (in developed economies like US as well as developing ones like Mexico), but is strongest in East and Southeast Asia. China’s burgeoning exports–backed by cheap and productive labor, a large stock of technical manpower, huge and diversified industrial sector, attractiveness to foreign investors, pragmatic use of industrial policy, and, now, freer access to world markets under WTO – lead to apocalyptic visions of export losses.2 China is most threatening to neighbors that rely primarily on low wages for their export advantage. However, as it upgrades its export structure, the more advanced economies (Singapore, Hong Kong, Korea and Taiwan) also fear for their competitiveness. The current hollowing out of their low-end manufacturing may soon extend to complex production, design, development and related services. Domestic markets are also threatened by China, but so far most attention seems to have been on exports.Offsetting this threat are the promise of the giant Chinese market (WTOaccession is only one of several initiatives to liberalize regional trade) and the potential for collaboration with it in exporting to the rest of the world. Trade within the East Asian region is flourishing. China is a growing importer from the region of natural resources that it does not possess. It is also raisin g imports of manufactured products. Its advanced neighbors are selling it sophisticated consumer and producer goods, and using it as a base for processing exports to third countries. The multinational companies (MNCs) that now account for around half of Chinese exports (and far more of its high technology exports, UNCTAD,2002) are incorporating China into production systems spanning the region (‘fragmentation’ and‘segmentation’ are used to describe this phenomenon3), so promoting considerable intra-firm trade with other regional bases. China’s own enterprises are likely to specialize with respect to reg ional counterparts and so raise intra-industry trade in differentiated products. Perhaps worryingly for competitors in other regions, such integration can lead China to complement regional competitiveness as a whole, rather than substitute its exports for those of its neighbors.It is difficult to assess, however, whether complementarily between China and the regional economies will fully offset its competitive threat. The dynamics and complexity of the interactions make it impossible to quantify the outcome, even to predict broad directions. The basic issue is whether China’s higher wage neighbors can move into more advanced export activities or functions rapidly enough to permit continued export expansion. If they can, they can continue with export-led growth. If they cannot, they will suffer export deceleration and/or a shift in specialization towards primary products or slow-growing segments of manufactured exports. The outcome, in other words, will depend on the relative growth of technological and other capabilities in Chinese and regional enterprises, with the former having such advantages as lower wages, larger scale economies, greater industrial depth, pools of technical skill and a proactive government. However, as East Asian countries differ widely in these factors (Lall, 2001), they face different kinds and intensity of competitive threat. The nature of the threat depends, moreover, on the organization of the production and marketing system: independent local firms are likely to compete more directl y than affiliates of thesame MNC spread over different countries in an integrated system.This paper does not try to measure China’s competitive threat or its effects, but to map relative export performance in the 1990s by technology and destination and so assess where the threat appears most intense. We focus on major East Asian exporters5 and on exports to third markets, but we also analyses complementarities between China and East Asia, particularly in electronics, the region’s largest export and the one where MNC systems dominate. As the 1990s predate China’s WTO accession, we do not go into the implications of this accession; however, the analysis of competitive trends has implications for the evolution of future trade by the region as liberalization grows.Background on Chinese export performanceChinese manufactured exports grew by 16.9% per annum over 1990-2000, compared to 6.4% for the world, 12.0% for all developing countries and 10.3% for the rest of East Asia. Its share of world manufactured exports rose from 1.7% to 4.4% over the decade and continued rising rapidly. 6 Thus, by 2002 China accounted for 5.1% of world merchandise exports; it was then the fifth largest exporter (after USA, Germany, Japan and France, and ahead of the UK). China’s share of developing world manufactured exports rose from 11% to 20% over the 1990s and of the East Asian region excluding China from 18.7% to 41.8%. Its export gains (see below) spanned the entire technological spectrum, and were most dynamic in the complex end of the range, in products that have recently driven the export growth of the rest of East Asia.This export surge is likely to be sustained for some time to come. China has ‘spare capacity’ in that its per capita exports are still relatively small,7 wages are much lower than in its main neighbors and it has large reserves of cheap and disciplined labor (though drawing it into exports will involve the cost of building links with the interior).8 More importantly, its advantages are not static (confined to cheap labor); they are upgrading rapidly. China is investing heavily in technology and advanced skills; for example, the share of the relevant age group enrolled in tertiary education rose from 9 percent in 1997 to 13 percent in 2000 (UNESCO website). It is exploiting the scale offered by its giant market to become competitive in capital-intensive activities beyond the reach of manyneighbors. It is using its diverse industrial base to deepen local content. It is drawing in export-oriented FDI at an impressive rate, using its market attractions to induce investors to raise local R&D and linkages; till now it has been able to impose performance requirements of the type soon to be banned under WTO rules.WTO accession may constrain China’s ability to use indust rial policy (Nolan, 2001) but it will also open up new export opportunities, particularly in textiles and garments.9 Accession may also enhance its domestic competitiveness: it will improve the investment climate for FDI, make imported inputs cheaper (for enterprises outside special export regimes) and induce faster restructuring of domestic enterprises (Ianchovichinaetal, 2003, and Lemoyne and Unal-Kesenci, 2002).Market share changes in major developed country marketsWe analyze market shares of China and its neighbors in three major markets: Japan, the US and West Europe, according to technology categories (Annex Table 1). In terms of value, the most important market for China in 2000 is the US ($49 billion), followed by Japan ($36 billion) and West Europe ($38 billion). However, the rest of the world is almost as large a destination for Chinese exports as these together ($106 billion in 2000) and within this the rest of East Asia is larger than any major OECD market by itself ($74.6 billion).The competitive position of each country can be analyzed in terms of the market share in 1990 and 2000 and the change over the decade. The annex table shows the following:Total manufactured exports: China does best in Japan, followed at some distance by the US. In common with most neighbors, its market share gain is weakest in West Europe. Korea loses market shares in both Japan and US, while Taiwan loses only in the US. Hong Kong’s loses market shares in all markets, particularly in the US and Japan. Like Taiwan, Singapore loses only in the US. The new Tigers gain share in all markets. With the exception of Indonesia, with a rather tepid performance, the others all gain most share in the Japanese market. Resource based products: China again leads the region in terms of market share increases, with a pattern similar to that for total exports. However, Korea has alarge gain in Japan, in contrast to Taiwan and Singapore, which lose shares; the latter two also lose in the US. Thailand is a big gainer in Japan while Indonesia and the Philippines lose out in the US. Low technology products: China’s massive market share gains are again concentrated in Japan. The four mature Tigers generally suffer losses in market share, but Singapore sees an increase in Japanese market share. The best overall performance among the new Tigers is by Indonesia.Medium technology products: While the Chinese pattern of success recurs, the new Tigers make significant gains in Japan and Korea incurs a significant loss. Taiwan and Singapore suffer losses in the US market. High technology exports: Taiwan again diverges from Korea in its performance in Japan, the former showing the second largest gain in the group (after China) and the latter the largest loss. In the US market, the situation is reversed, with Singapore joining Taiwan in losing market shares. Among the new Tigers, Malaysia and the Philippines are the big gainers in Japan, but the other two also benefit significantly. The Philippines is the second largest winner in the group in the US market. In sum, China’s main market share gains in the developed world are concentrated in Japan (though the US accounts for a larger dollar value of export growth). This is also true of its neighbors with the exceptions of Korea and Indonesia (Hong Kong was an all-round loser). To the extent that we can interpret market share changes to be causally related to China’s export surge, it would seem that the mature Tigers suffered the most from Chinese competition. The largest such loss is in low technology products, which is to be expected, but this not take into account the growth of LT exports by Korea and Taiwan to China. The relatively low gains by the lower-income new Tigers in LT may also reflect the impact of Chinese competition – without the offsetting increase in exports of intermediates to China.ConclusionsChina’s export surge has raised grave concerns in the region. While some of the apocalyptic predictions may have been overdone, it is certainly possible that rapid export growth by such a massive entrant will adversely affects export growth in its neighbors. As this analysis shows,however, the outcome is complex.For a start, the rise in China’s exports is matched by that in its imports – within the region its import growth outpaces its export growth. With appropriate restructuring of activities to match new competitive needs, its neighbors should be able to maintain high rates of export growth.There are two main drivers of regional exports to China. The first is to meet its burgeoning demand for imported products: primary products and resource-based manufactures that it cannot produce capital goods and intermediates for domestic -oriented production and more sophisticated consumer goods than its industry can currently provide. The second is to meet the needs of its export industries. This has two components: ‘processing’ activity in special economic zones that use imported inputs for export activities, and other exporters that also need imports. Processing activity is increasingly organized as part of integrated production systems, particularly its high technology segments, though some domestic oriented industries are also being plugged into this system as they realize scale and learning economies and become globally competitive. Both drivers are likely to continue into the foreseeable future, though their composition will change as Chinese and regional capabilities develop.中国竞争力的表现：是对东亚制成品出口的威胁吗？越来越多的东南亚和东亚地区关注中国出口的迅速增长所带来的竞争威胁，中国加入WTO后，更加剧了这种情况。
国贸专业外文文献翻译
外文文献原稿和译文原稿Introduction2010,Risks in Global MarketWhere there’s an opportunity,there’s a risk.Traders always face risks in any market,from the richest countries to the least developed economies. And as the global economic crisis changed markets,some risks for international trades might have been unveiled or worsened.The risks,which derive from the diversity and vicissitude of market structures,jurisdictions,commerce rules, cultures,languages,and even psychosociological factors,may exist in any sector and stage of the trade process,such as destination marketing,customs clearance,financial support,debts and solvencies,and adherence to WTO rules.A report by the Ministry of Commerce of China specified the risks of investing and doing business in many countries.Zhou Mi,an expert on the research panel,argued that the global market is undergoing a wave of restructuring and rebalancing because consumption in developed countries has waned and the emerging economies will accordingly wield greater influence in the world economy.The newest updates of this report will reveal more specifics, and some of them are listed here in advance.A senior manager from Ernst& Young analyzes the effect that corporate reshaping could have on customs clearance.China Export&Credit Insurance Corporation evaluates the risk factors in the financial systems and debt structures of some important markets.An expert from China’s Economic Diplomacy defines some risks created by WTO rules and offers advice on how to handle the risks.译文介绍2010年，在全球市场的风险那里是一个机会，还有一个风险。
世界贸易和国际贸易外文文献及中文翻译
World Trade and International TradeIn today’s complex economic world, neither individuals nor nations are self-sufficient. Nations have utilized different economic resources; people have developed different skills. This is the foundation of world trade and economic activity. As a result of this trade and activity, international finance and banking have evolved.For example, the United States is a major consumer of coffee, yet it does not have the climate to grow any or its own. Consequently, the United States must import coffee from countries (such as Brazil, Colombia and Guatemala) that grow coffee efficiently. On the other hand, the United States has large industrial plants capable of producing a variety of goods, such as chemicals and airplanes, which can be sold to nations that need them. If nations traded item for item, such as one automobile for 10,000 bags of coffee, foreign trade would be extremely cumbersome and restrictive. So instead of batter, which is trade of goods without an exchange of money, the United State receives money in payment for what it sells. It pays for Brazilian coffee with dollars, which Brazil can then use to buy wool from Australia, which in turn can buy textiles Great Britain, which can then buy tobacco from the United State.Foreign trade, the exchange of goods between nations, takes place for many reasons. The first, as mentioned above is that no nation has all of the commodities that it needs. Raw materials are scattered around the world. Large deposits of copper are mined in Peru and Zaire, diamonds are mined in South Africa and petroleum is recovered in the Middle East. Countries that do not have these resources within their own boundaries must buy from countries that export them.Foreign trade also occurs because a country often does not have enough of a particular item to meet its needs. Although the United States is a major producer of sugar, it consumes more than it can produce internally and thus must import sugar.Third, one nation can sell some items at a lower cost than other countries. Japan has been able to export large quantities of radios and television sets because it can produce them more efficiently than other countries. It is cheaper for the United States to buy these from Japan than to produce them domestically. According to economic theory, Japan should produce and export those items from which it derives a comparative advantage. It should also buy and import what it needs from those countries that have a comparative advantage in the desired items.Finally, foreign trade takes place because of innovation or style. Even though the United States produces more automobiles than any other country, it still imports large numbers of autos from Germany, Japan and Sweden, primarily because there is a market for them in the United States.For most nations, exports and imports are the most important international activity. When nations export more than they import, they are said to have a favorable balance of trade. When they import more than they export, an unfavorable balance of trade exists. Nations try to maintain a favorable balance of trade, which assures them of the means to buy necessary imports.International trade is the exchange ofgoods and services produced in one country for goods and services produced in another country. There are several reasons for it.The distribution lf natural resources around the world is somewhat haphazard: some nations possess natural deposits in excess of their own requirements while other nations have none. For example, Britain has large reserves of coal but lacks many minerals such as nickel, copper, aluminum etc, whereas the Arab states have vast oil deposits but little else. In the cultivation of natural products climates whereas others, such as citrus fruits, require a Mediterranean climate. Moreover, some nations are unable to produce sufficient of a particular product to satisfy a large home demand, for example, Britain and wheat. These are the reasons why international trade first began.With the development of manufacturing and technology, there arose another incentive for nations to exchange their products. It was found that it made economic sense for a nation to specialize in certain activities and produce those goods for which it had the most advantages, and to exchange those goods for the products of other nations which and advantages in different fields. This trade is based on the principle of comparative advantage.The theory of comparative advantage, also called the comparative cost theory, was developed by David Ricardo, and other economists in the nineteenth century. It points out that trade between countries can be profitable for all, even if one of the countries can produce every commodity more cheaply. As long as there are minor, relative differences in the efficiency of producing a commodity even the poof country can have a comparative advantage in producing it. The paradox is best illustrated by this traditional example: the best lawyer in town is also the best typist in town. Since this lawyer cannot afford to give up precious time from legal and typing matters. But the typist’s comparative disadvantage is least in typing. Therefore, the typist has a relative comparative advantage in typing.This principle is the basis of specialization into trades and occupations. At the same time, complete specialization may never occur even when it is economically advantageous. For strategic or domestic reasons, a country may continue to produce goods for which it does not have an advantage. The benefits lf specialization may also be affecting by transport costs: goods and raw materials have to be transported around the world and the cost of the transport narrows the limits between which it will prove profitable to trade. Another impediment to the free flow of goods between nations is the possible introduction of artificial barriers to trade, such as tariffs or quotas.In addition to visible trade, which involves the import and export lf goods and merchandise, there is also invisible trade, which involves the exchange of services between nations.Nations such as Greece and Norway have large marine fleets and provide transportation service. This is a kind of invisible trade. When an exporter arranges shipment, he rents space in the cargo compartment or a ship.The prudent e xporter purchases insurance for his cargo’s voyage. While at sea, a cargo is vulnerable to many dangers. Thus, insurance is another service in which some nations specialize. Great Britain, becauseof the development of Lloyd’s of London, is a leading expor ter of this service, earning fees for insuring other nations’ foreign trade.Some nations possess little in the way of exporter commodities or manufactured goods, but they have a mild and sunny climate. During the winter, the Bahamas attract large numbers of countries, who spend money for hotel accommodations, meals, taxis, and so on. Tourism, therefore, is another form of invisible trade.Invisible trade can be as important to some nations as the export of raw materials or commodities is to other. In both cases, the nations as the export of raw materials or commodities is to other. In both cases, the nations earn money to buy necessities.International trade today little resembles European commerce as it existed between the 16th century and the 19th century. Trade in earlier times was conducted largely between a mother country and its colonies. It was conducted according to strict mercantilist principles. The colonies were supposed to supply the mother country with raw materials, and they were expected to buy all finished goods from the mother country. Other forms of trade were forbidden to the colonies, but many of them evaded these restrictions.A result of the Industrial Revolution, which began in England in the 18th century, was the transformation of trade from a colonial exchange into a many sided international institution. Cottage industries gave way to mass production in factories. Railroads and steamships lowered the cost of transportation at the same time that new markets were being sought for the expanding output of goods.The Industrial Revolution also brought an end to mercantilist policies. The laissez-faire attitudes that emerged in their stead permitted businessmen to manufacture what they pleased and to trade freely with other nations. Trade was also stimulated by the growth of banking facilities, insurance companies, and improved commercial shipping and communications.The repeal of the Corn Laws by Great Britain in 1846 ended Britain’s longstanding policy of protectionism. During the 19th century, many European nations made commercial agreements with each other easing their tariff rates. Lower tariffs and the growth of population and industry caused trade to soar in the 19th century.In the 20th century two world wars and a major depression caused severe disturbances in international trade. Nations, sensing a threat to their domestic economies, sought to protect themselves from further disturbances by erecting various barriers to trade.The situation became even worse after Great Britain abandoned the gold standard. The nations that were closely related to Britain, including most of the members of the Commonwealth of gold standard. As the means of making international payments broke down and trade restrictions increased, some countries had to resort to barter to obtain foreign goods.International trade was in such severe straits during the depression that a World Economic Conference was held in 1933. This conference, however, was unable to halt a rash of currency devaluations, tariff increases, and quota arrangements.In 1934, U.S. Secretary of State Cordell Hull persuaded Congress to pass the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act. This law authorized the President to negotiate tariff cuts with other nations. The Reciprocal Trade Act provided for protection of U.S. industries in the event foreign imports increased to such a degree that U.S. businesses were injured. This protection included peril point and escape clauses under which tariff cuts could by refused of rescinded if a U.S. industry suffered economic hardship. Despite the protectionist clauses in the act, U.S. tariffs were substantially reduced.Shortly before the end of World War Ⅱ, members of the United Nations met at Bratton Woods, N.H. to discuss ways of reducing the financial barriers to international trade. The International Monetary Fund was established as a result of the conference. The fund was designed to encourage the growth of international trade by stabilizing currencies and their rate of foreign exchange.In the early postwar period, more than 20 nations met in Geneva, Switzerland, to negotiate tariff reductions. When any two nations reached an agreement to reduce tariffs on a product, the benefits were extended to all participating nations. This was an application of the so-called most favored nation clause.The Geneva tariff agreements were written into the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). GATT also established standards for the conduct of international trade. Fox example, the agreement prohibits nations from placing quotas of limits on imports, except under very special circumstances.After World War Ⅱ a number of free trade areas were formed to solve trade problems on a regional basis. Tariffs on goods moving within these areas were to be abolished. Some of the groups also erected a single tariff on the goods of outsiders coming into their common area. Such groups are called customs unions. The goal of all trade blocs was to merge small political units into large geographic entities in which goods could be freely manufactured and sold. A large market area greatly stimulates economic growth and prosperity. These trade blocs are: Benelux, The European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC), the European Economic Community (EEC or Common Market), the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (COMECOM), the Latin American Free Trade Association (LAFTA), the Central American Common Market (CACM), the Caribbean Free Trade Area (CARIFTA), the Caribbean Community and Common Market (CARICOM).世界贸易和国际贸易在当今复杂的经济世界个人和国家都不是自给自足。
国贸外文文献翻译
外文文献翻译原文：FACTORS AFFECTING ONLINE PURCHASING BEHAVIORHamisah Haji Hasan & Prof. Samsudin A. RahimUniversiti Putra Malaysia & Universiti Kebangsaan MalaysiaAbstractThe study examined the relationship between consumer personality and cultural dimensions to that of purchasing behavior through cyber advertising. Krugman‟s Low Involvement theory and Hofstede‟s Cultural Dimensions were incorporated in the study. A survey was conducted in the Subang Jaya, Puchong and Kuala Lumpur area. The sample consisted of 504 respondents drawn from a simple random sampling. Spearman Correlation Coefficients was used to analyze the data. The study showed as suggested by Krugman‟s Low Involvement theory, high involvement products and attitude towards Internet contributed significantly to the purchasing behavior through cyber advertising. Thus indicating the Internet to be better suited for high involvement products and services as well as help increase the tendency to purchase products and services online.Similarly, the study also showed that the convenience dimension of the consumer personality variable formed a significant relationship with purchasing behavior through cyber advertising. Although Hofstede‟s Cultural Dimensions argued that cultural dimensions influences the adoption of innovations, yet results obtained from the study failed to support the theory as it was found that risk personality which represent the other dimension of the consumer personality and the cultural dimensions failed to support the hypotheses as observed in the non-significant relationships between the variables and the purchasing behavior through cyber advertising.Keywords: Internet, Hofstede Cultural Dimension, Krugman Low Involvment Theory, advertising, online purchasing behavior.The Internet Era: Cyber Advertising and Media PlanningThe development in the new media technologies that range from the Internet, interactive kiosks and CD-ROMS, to digital TV and radio are today ushering in a new era and have opened up new avenues for marketing communications. These new media are not only revolutionizing marketing and marketing communications but it has also influence consumers‟ behavior.The advent of the new technology namely the internet has tremendously altered the way consumers behave. The new media has not only offered consumers a better way to view products and services but also has helped created a better relationship between marketer and consumers. Thus, transforming them into a more sophisticated, well-informed and savvy buyers and as suggested by Arens (1999) consumers today are becoming “active controllers “of the messages they see and hear. Apparently, these past few years have also witnessed the rise and rapid growth in economic importance of a group of consumers whose attitudes, aspirations and purchasingpatterns are unlike any before them. Today, they are the new consumers. They are already a potent force in the developed world, and within the next decade will probably dominate consumption in all parts of the world. This new consumers with their distinctive style of consumption differs in their purchasing decisions from that of the old consumers.The Internet has affected the way the world do business by altering the basic business dynamics. The dynamics that have shaped economic practices since the early nineteenth century are being replaced by a new set of fundamental principle based on the new digital economy. The Internet has also helped increased global exposure for both businesses and consumers alike. Domestic companies expand internationally just by going online and investing in e-business. At the time consumers can also expand their shopping horizons by using the Internet to search for the best deals and expose themselves to e-retailers from around the globe.Obviously, the Internet has offer tremendous new opportunities to businesses regardless oftheir size. As a medium, it is equally accessible to both the large as well as the small operators. This has thus, resulted in local and international marketplace. The Internet is changing the way advertisers present, sell, and communicate with consumers. Today, a variety of practices are being used to reach consumers.译文：影响网上购物的因素Hamisah哈吉·哈桑教授及三苏丁A.拉希姆马来西亚博特拉大学和马来西亚国民大学摘要该研究通过网络购买行为验证消费者的个性和文化维度之间的关系。
国际贸易参考文献英文
国际贸易参考文献英文English:For references on international trade, there are several key texts that scholars and practitioners often use. "International Trade: Theory and Policy" by Paul Krugman and Maurice Obstfeld is a well-regarded textbook that provides an in-depth understanding of the theories and policies surrounding international trade. Another important reference is "World Trade Statistical Review" by the World Trade Organization, which provides comprehensive data and analysis on global trade patterns and trends. "The Law and Policy of the World Trade Organization" by Peter Van Den Bossche is an essential text for understanding the legal framework and workings of the WTO, while "The Competitive Advantage of Nations" by Michael E. Porter offers insights into the role of national competitiveness in international trade. These references cover a wide range of topics and provide valuable insights into the complexities of international trade.中文翻译:对于国际贸易的参考文献，有几本关键的书籍是学者和实践者经常使用的。
国际经济与贸易 外文翻译 外文文献 英文文献 .docx
外文文献翻译The effects of subjective norms on behaviour in the theory of planned behaviour: A meta-analysisMark Manning*University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts, USAA meta-analysis investigated the effects of perceived injunctive (IN) and descriptive (DN) norms on behaviour (BEH) within the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) in a sample of 196 studies. Two related correlation matrices (pairwise and listwise) were synthesized from the data and used to model the TPB relations with path analyses.Convergent evidence indicated that the relation between DN and BEH was stronger than the relation between IN and BEH. Evidence also suggested a significant direct relation between DN and BEH in the context of TPB. A suppressor effect of IN on DN in its relation with BEH was also noted・ Moderator analyses indicated that the DN-BEH relation was stronger when there was more time between measures of cognition and behaviour, when behaviours were not socially approved, more socially motive and more pleasant: results were mixed in the case of the IN-BEH relation. Results imply that IN and DN are conceptually different constructs・As social beings, normative pressure inevitably affects our behaviour・Social nonns influence the way we dress, how we vote, what we buy, and a host of other behavioural decisions.Social psychologists have been exploring the influence of social norms on behaviour for decades・ From AschM and Milgram s conformity- experiments (Asch, 19S6;Milgram, Bickman, & Berkowitz, 1969) through recent work by Cialdini and colleagues(Cialdini, Reno. & Kallgren, 1990; Reno, Cialdini, & Kallgren, 1993), a substantial body of evidence has demonstrated that people conform to the judgments and behaviours of others.In experiments conducted by Cialdini and his colleagues (Cialdini et al., 1990; Reno et al., 1993), participants inferred behavioural norms for littering from environmental cues and acted in accord with these norms. The results highlight the fact that perceptions of norms, ratber than actual norms, can affect behaviour・ Tlie relation between perceived norms and behaviour has receivedmuch empirical support (Borsari & Carey, 2003; Campo, Brossard. Fnizer. Marchell, Lewis, & Talbot, 2003; Gomberg, Schneider, & Dejong, 2(K)I; Grube, Morgan, & MeGree, 1986; Okun, Karoly, & Lutz,2002; Riniai & Real. 2005). However, one ofthc most influential models for predicting behaviour, the thcor>*of planned behaviour (TPB; Ajzcn, 1991), posits that rather than a direct relation between norm and behaviour, perceived nortns influence behaviour indirectly by way of behavioural intentions. Investigating the perceived norm-behaviour relation in tlic context of this theory offers insight not only into the strength of the relation, but also into the extent to which perceived norms may directly influence behaviour counter to theoretical expectations.The present study used mcta-analytic path analyses to examine, the relation between two types of perceived norms (injunctive (IN) and descriptive (DN) norms; described below) and behaviour in the context of the TPB (Ajzcn. 1991). The investigation explored the direct effects of IN and DN on behaviour as well as factors that may moderate the effect of subjective norms (SN) on behaviour・The theory of planned behaviourAccording to the TPB, the immediate antecedent of behaviour is the intention to pertbrm the behaviour (Figure 1). This behavioural intention is in turn a function of three major determinants: attitude towards the behaviour, perceived SN pertaining to the behaviour, and perceived degree of control over engaging in and ctJmpleting the behaviour (perceived behavioural control).The formation of attitudes (ATT), SN and perceived behavioural control (PBC) are respectively functions of behavioural beliefs, normative beliefs and control beliefs that a person holds with regards to the behaviour・ Concerning ATT, the set of accessible beliefs that a person holds about the outcome of a behaviour will determine the evaluation of the behaviour, and thus influence the strength and direction of the ATT towards the behaviour.SN are a function of the normative beliefs that people relevant to the individual are perceived as having towards tbe behaviour coupled with the motivation of the individual to comply with the expected notins of these relevant persons・ PBC is a function of the perceived factors that will influence the ability to engage in the behaviour coupled with the perception as to whether or not these factors will be present.In short, the TPB holds that favourable ATT, SN. And perceptions of control will lead to favourable intentions to engage in a given behaviour. Actual control over engaging in the behaviouris itself an important determinant・ To the extent that individuals realistically appraise the amount of control that they have over the behaviour, the measure of PBC; can serve as a proxy for actual control. Perceived control is expected to have a moderating effect such that intentions will be reflected in actual behaviour to the extent that perceived control is high.The TPB has been applied successfully to a wide range of behaviours accounting for a sizable amount of variance (Armitage & Ckmner, 2001: Bamberg, Ajzen, & Schmidt,2003; Hardeman. Johnston. Johnston, Bonetti, Wareham, & Kinmonth. 2002; Povey.Wellens, & Conner, 2001; Rise. Thompson. & Verplanken, 2003). Regarding the SN construct, the theory holds that the effect of SN on behaviour is fully mediated by behavioural intentions・ In other words, SN are not expected to have a direct effect (DE)on behaviour but instead influetice behaviours indirectly through their effect on intentions.Descriptive and injunctive normsTwo types of SN can be distinguished. IN are social pressures to engage in a behaviour based on the perception of what other people want you to do whereas DN are social pressures based on the observed or inferred behaviour of others・ Tliis distinction has been empirically supported (Cialdini et al .,1990; Deutsch & Gerard.1955; Grube et al., 1986; Larimer & Neighbours, 2005; Larimer. Turner, Mallett. & Geisner, 2004; Reno et al.,1993; Rhodes & Courneya, 2003; White, Terry, & Hogg, 1994). Within the TPB, the SN construct was originally conceptualized as an injunctive norm (Ajzen, 1991). More recently, however, Ajzen and Fishbein (200S) have recommended including both types of normative measures in constructing planned behaviour stirveys・ DN and IN will therefore be considered separately in the analyses to follow. Subjective norms-behaviour relationIn reviewing the SN construct in the planned behaviour context, Conner and Armitage(1998) have noted the lack of predictive power of the IN construct when predicting intention. Due to the paucity- of studies including DN in the planned behaviour context,conclusions regarding DN in this context are sparser. Recently, several investigators have included DN as predictors of intentions in the planned behaviour model (PBM;Fekadu &Kraft, 2002; MCiMUlan & Conner, 2(K)3; Okun et al.. 2002: Sheeran & Orbell, 1999b). Rivis and Sbeeran (2003) conducted a meta-analysis of DN in the planned behaviour context. Their analysis, based on 18 studies, demonstrated a significant relationship between DN and intention when controlling for otlier variables in the TPB.In that, these previous studies have investigated theeffects of SN on intentions, to date,no planned behaviour mcta-ana lysis has explored the potential for differences in the effects of SN on behaviour in the planned behaviour context.Deutsch and Gerard (1955) have suggested that DN and IN refer to different sources of motivation. Regarding DN, it has been shown that perceptions of behaviours of others lead one to behave in similar manners (Asch, 1956;Milgram et al., 1969). Descriptive normative information functions as a heuristic with regards to behavioural decisions offering cues as to what is appropriate behaviour iii a given situation (Cialdini et al., 1990; van Knippenberg, 2000). IN on the other iiand operate more through the role of motivation to comply with social sanctions (Ajzen, 1991;Lapinski & Rimal, 2005). To the extent that individuals are motivated to comply with perceived behavioural expectations of relevant referents, they avoid social sanctions・Though several studies have looked at the effect of one or botli types of norms on particular behaviours, there has yet to be a single meta-analytical review that compares the relationship between the two types of norms and behaviours across a spectrum of behaviours. Consequently, on a general level it is unknown whether one type of norm has a stronger effect on behaviour than the other it may be hypothesized that DN have a stronger effect on behaviour than IN because DN are activated in the immediate behavioural situation. Furthermore, processing of DN for behavioural decisions may require less cognitive effort relative to the processing of IN, in that DN may rely more on heuristic than systematic informatioprocessing・Perhaps, this advantage contributes to efficient behavioural decision・making in line with descriptive normative information. In fact, researchers have shown that conditions that facilitate the use of heuristic information-processing lead participants to act more in line with DN (Hertel, Neuhof, Theucr, & Kerr, 2000). It is expected therefore, that DN will have a stronger effect on behaviour relative to IN.Direct effect ofSN on behaviourThe TPB posits that the relationship between SN and behaviour is fully mediated by behavioural intentions (Ajzen, 1991; Ajzen & Fishbein, 1973)・ However, a number of planned behaviour studies that have included normative constructs as a behavioural predictor have found direct effects of SN on behaviour (Christian & Abrams, 2004 -Study 2; Christian & Arm让age, 2002; Christian, Armitage, & Abrams, 2003; Okun et al.,2002; Trafimow & Finlay, 2001). In most research with the TPB, the effect of the normative component on intentions has received most attention (Armitage & Conner,2001; Rivis & Sheeran, 2003) while the potential for a DE of SN onbehaviour has received little empirical or meta-analytical scrutiny.One reason to explore, the potential for a DE may be the hypothetical nature under which most people report cognitions pertaining to behaviour in planned behaviour studies・ Hypothetical contexts may not accurately reflect the relations between cognitions and behaviours that are evident in real behavioural contexts (Ajzen, Brown, & Carvajal, 2004). Furthermore, when an individual reports an intention to engage in a particular behaviour in one instance, that behavioural intention may be subject to change from the instance it is formed to the moment when an opportunity for behavioural engagement arises (Ajzen, 1991).For example, in the classic linn (1965) study, hotel managers expressed little intent to allow Chinese couples to stay in their hotels, however allowed them to do so when the instance arose・ It is less likely that perceptions of norms related to the behaviour will change over time. Consequently, there is the potential for reported normative perceptions to have stronger relations with behaviour compared with relations between reported behavioural intentions and behaviour. This may be reflected in the presence of a DE of SN on the particular behaviour. The present meta-analjtical synthesis provides the opportunity* to gauge the potential for a direct relation between SN and behaviour in the context of the TPB.Variation in the magnitude of the SN^ehaviour relationshipThe possibility of a DE of SN on behaviour within the TPB implies that there are two ways in which SN can affect behaviour. There can be the theoretically posited indirect effect on behaviour mediated through intentions, and there may be a DE on behaviour. The total effect therefore is the sum of these two effects・ In accord with the prediction that DN have a stronger relation with behaviours compared to the IN-behaviour relation, it is expected that the total effect of DN on behaviour is greater than the total effect of IN on behaviour. In addition to predicted differences between DN and IN in their effects on behaviour, there is the potential for differences in the magnitude of the effect within each type of norm. Compatibility* between measures of cognition and behaviour and the time between measurement of cognitions and behaviour are expected to lead to differences in the magnitudes of the effects of SN on behaviour. Additionally, the potential moderating effect of three further variables will be explored;the level of social approval of the behaviour, the extent to which social motives underlie behaviour, and the extent to which a behaviour is uselial versus pleasant may all contribute to variance in the relationship between norms and behaviour.CompatibilityElements of a particular behaviour can be defined in terms of the behavioural target, the action involved in the behaviour, the context in which the behaviour is performed, and the time at wliich it is performed. The relationship between cognitive predictors of a particular behaviour and engagement in the behaviour will be stronger if behavioural elements and cognitive assessment of the behaviour are compatible (Ajzen, 1996; Ajzen & Fishbein. 1977). That is to say., for instance, that if an investigator would tike to pretlict someone's propensity* to exercise 3 days a week for half an hour, measures should assess cognitions regarding exercising 3 days a week for half an hour rather than cognitions to be healthy, or some other general cognition regarding exercise・Tenned the ”principle of compatibility0, it holds that measurements of planned behaviour variables must be compatible with the target behaviour in terms of target, action, context, and time. Given the effect of compatibility and the magnitude of the correlations between planned behaviour variables and behavioural measures, it is expected that studies where the cognitive and behavioural measures are fully compatible will feature stronger relations between SN and behaviour. It is also expected that among studies where measures are more compatible, the intention mediated relation between SN and behaviour will be stronger than any unmediated relation, in line with theoretical dictates, whereas among studies that are less compatible there will potentially be greater direct effects of SN on behaviour.Time interval between measures of SN and behaviourAccording to Ajzen ( 1991 ). cognitive precursors of behaviour that are measured closer to the target behaviour should be more predictive of behavioural engagement. Due to motivational considerations, measures of the intention to engage in a particular behaviour will vary as a function of proximity to behavioural engagement (Bandura & Schunk. 1981; Kamiol & Ross, 1996; Steel & Konig, 2006) in that tlie ftirther in the future is the potential behavioural engagement, the less predictive are intentions to engage in this behaviour. As Ibe relation between stated intentions and actual behaviour decreases over time, the potential exists for SN to be relatively more predictive of behaviour. This potential is evident in light of the argument outlined above wherein SN pertaining to a behaviour are less likely to change over time compared to behavioural intentions. As such, it is expected that as the time between measurement of cognitions and behaviour increases, SN will be reflected to a greater extent in actual behaviour.Furthermore, as the relation between intentions and behaviour diminishes, it is likely that the DE of SN on behaviour will be stronger as more time passes between measures of cognition and behaviour.计划行为理论根据TPB理论，行为的直接前因是执行行为的意向。
国际贸易外文文献
目录一、外文文献译文（1）2008：狂乱之旅 (1)二、外文文献原文（1）2008: A Wild Ride (6)三、外文文献译文（2）2008年下半年场外衍生产品市场活动 (13)四、外文文献原文（2）OTC derivatives market activity in the second half of 2008 (16)2008：狂乱之旅对全球期货和期权行业而言，2008年是惊心动魄的一年。
一些主要的市场参与者，有些甚至曾经是市场上规模最大的公司之一，现在已经消失；同时，市场参与者面临的交易对手信用风险加剧，市场状况令人担忧。
特别是在2008年9月雷曼兄弟宣布破产后，市场波动加剧，流动性随之降低，期货和期权市场上一些全球交易规模最大和最富盛名的交易品种的交易量也产生了毋庸置疑的下跌。
尽管市场动荡不安，但期货和期权交易量的总趋势仍然是向上增长的。
美国期货业协会追踪的遍布全球的69个交易所交易的期货及期权的总交易量同比上涨13.7%。
虽然美国处于信用危机的风暴中心，受创最为严重，但是美国交易所2008年期货和期权交易量仍然同比增长14.0%，欧洲和亚洲的交易量增加得更快。
毫无疑问，交易量在多年高速增长后，增速已逐步放缓。
2008年全球期货和期权交易量同比增长13.7%，远低于2007年30.9%和2006年18.9%的增幅。
The Big ChillAfter shooting upward for several years, the growth in global futures and options trading decelerated sharply in 2008.更重要的是，相对温和的数据掩盖了不同类别交易品种交易量变化趋势的差异性。
以美国为例，美国期货市场的交易量仅仅同比增长了 4.4%。
与此截然相反的是，尽管市场波动异常剧烈，美国期权交易所的交易量仍然同比大涨25.1%。