估值模型——以金风科技为例

资产负债表2007A2008A2009E2010E2011E

货币资金791.11566.2855.765.17629.4应收和预付款项844.47485.161347.8786.71722.1存货709.58431106.21175.6其他流动资产35.580000长期股权投资74.9473.7473.7473.7473.74投资性房地产00000固定资产和在建工程5065.95034.444543863.53263.1无形资产和开发支出161.35176.66176.66176.66176.66长期待摊费用00000其他非流动资产7682.97179.66955.960727040.5资产总计2651.928061411.4512.650短期借款1935.81464.32363.42014.23048.3应付和预收款项983603603603603长期借款200.12243.94243.94243.94243.94其他负债5770.85117.24621.83373.83895.3负债合计964.41964.41964.41964.41964.41股本872.98876.38876.38876.38876.38资本公积-21.432.87271.91592.05985.25留存收益18161873.72112.72432.82826归属母公司股东权益96.09188.68221.44265.31319.2少数股东权益1912.12062.32334.12698.23145.2股东权益合计7682.97179.66955.960727040.5负债和股东权益合计791.11566.2855.765.17629.4

现金流量表2007A2008A2009E2010E2011E

净利润17.2661.71271.8364.02447.08折旧与摊销131.2222.6680.4690.4700.4经营性现金净流量1097.3452.5425.63387.2503.4投资性现金净流量-190.33-205.84598.03605.5614筹资性现金净流量-511.71-371.84-1534.2-983.23-553.18现金流量净额386.42-132.76-510.589.47564.23 EBITDA552.07597.571215.11263.41314.1 NOPLAT-366.76-465.87-307.48-269.7-232.47

业绩预测和估值标准

指标2008E2009E2010E2011E

营业收入（百万）18.1416.20817.10318.907

YOY%11.10%-10.65% 5.52%10.55%

净利润（百万元） 4.619 3.503 3.929 4.375

YoY%26.90%-24.17%12.18%11.35

EPS(元)0.220.170.190.21%

ROE16.76%10.58%10.47%10.59%

P/E26343127

P/B3332

利润表2007A2008A2009E2010E2011E

营业收入4178.154801.875570.176517.097690.2营业成本4471.044864.925358.56191.247228.8营业税金及附加10.889.7211.2713.1915.57营业费用142.76141.48164.12192.02226.58管理费用207.85278.27322.8377.67445.65财务费用258.23292.26139.7184.4640.53资产减值损失8.6422.53000投资收益141.25 4.54000公允价值变动损益00000其他经营损益00000营业利润-780.02-802.78-426.23-341.48-267其他非经营损益819.43899.21821.21830840利润总额39.4196.43394.98488.52573.08所得税22.1534.72123.18124.5126净利润17.2661.71271.8364.02447.08少数股东损益-8.57.4432.7643.8753.88母公司股东净利润25.7654.27239.04320.14393.2

财务指标2007A2008A2009E2010E2011E

毛利率-7.01%-1.31% 3.80% 5.00% 6.00%销售净利率0.41% 1.29% 4.88% 5.59% 5.81% ROE 1.42% 2.90%11.31%13.16%13.90% ROA 3.72% 5.22%7.69%9.44%8.72% ROIC20.48%28.12%-7.07%-6.20%-6.10%销售收入增长率-7.40%14.93%16.00%17.00%18.00% EBIT 增长率281.50%31.25%42.60%7.16%7.09%净利润增长率105.20%257.50%340%33.90%22.80%估值倍数

EPS(X)0.0270.0560.2480.3320.408 PE(X)308.88146.633.2824.8520.24 PB(X) 4.38 4.25 3.77 3.27 2.82 PS(X) 1.9 1.66 1.43 1.22 1.03 EV/EBITDA(X)17.9717.468.397.39 6.34