论文 中国对外贸易发展形势分析

Analysis for t he Situation of China’s Foreign T rade

2011

Submitted by：XXXX

Class：XXXX

Supervised by：XXXX

Department of Foreign Languages

Wuhan Polytechnic

2012-03-09

摘要

本文主要阐述了中国对外贸易的一些基本情况和总体的发展趋势。主要通过分析相关资料和研究有关权威部门发布的报告，对中国对外贸易的基本情况，以及中国对外贸易存在的一些问题和针对这些问题应该采取的措施，做了简要的概述。通过对这些问题的研究，得到的结论是中国对外贸易将继续保持增长态势，但增速将会有所回落。由于对外贸易面临国内外许多复杂而又不确定的因素，中国政府还需要积极采取相应措施，以保持对外贸易的平稳发展。

关键词：外贸背景；外贸形势；加工贸易；服务贸易；外贸展望

Abstract

This paper mainly introduces some basic information and the trend of foreign trade in China. Through searching some relevant information and analyzing the report issued by the department concerned, some brief narratives have been made about some basic situation, problems and some measures that should be taken. Through researching these questions, we can conclude that the tendency of foreign trade in china will keep increasing but the speed will fall after rising. Because the foreign trade is facing many complex and uncertain factors, the China government needs to take some measures in order to keep the foreign trade stable development.

Key words: foreign trade background; the situation of foreign trade; processing trade; service trade; the outlook of foreign trade

CONTENTS

1. Some basic conditions about foreign trade in China (1)

1.1 Rapid growth of general trade, the decline of processing trade (1)

1.2 The leading position of foreign investment enterprise in foreign trade (1)

1.3 High volatility of the import prices of commodity (1)

1.4 The decline of foreign trade surplus (2)

2. The existing problems in china foreign trade (2)

2.1 The lag of development in service trade (2)

2.1.1 Service trade structure unreasonable (2)

2.1.2 The regulations of service trade law not sound (3)

2.1.3 Service management system lag behind (3)

2. 2 Goods seriously blocked by technical trade barriers (3)

2.3 Slowdown in world economic recovery, external demand growth momentum still insufficient (4)

2.4 More obvious of countries’ self-care and trade protectionism heat up (5)

2.5 The cost of various elements rising and increase of business pressures (5)

2.6 More competitive international market and the increasing competitive pressure faced by enterprise (6)

3. The solution to the problems in the foreign trade (7)

3.1 To establish a sound foreign service trade management (7)

3.2 To explore other foreign markets using a variety of ways (7)

3.3 Balance the domestic markets and external market (8)

3.4 Adjust the structure of the export products (8)

3.5 Increase the tax rebates and build up our own brand (8)

3.6 Pay attention to the development of our Independent intellectual property rights (9)

4. Conclusion (9)

4.1 Steady and rapid development to the domestic economy (9)

4.2 The competition and vitality increasing to he enterprises (10)

5. Bibliography (11)

1.Some basic conditions about foreign trade in China

According to custom statistics, January to October, the total export-import volume is 2.97538 trillion dollars, having increased 24.3% year by year, the growth is less 12% than last year in the same period. Among the total volume, the export is 15497.1 trillion dollars, having increased 22%.The growth is less 10.7% than last year in the same period. The import is 14256.8 trillion dollars, having increased 26.9%, the growth is less 13.7% than last year in the same period. The surplus is 1240.3 trillion dollars, having decreased 15.4%. At October, the export has increased 15.9%, but less 7% than last year. The import has increased 28.7%, which is less 3.4% than last year in the same period. The import and export presents its traits as follows:

1.1 Rapid growth of general trade, the decline of processing trade

January to October, the volume of general trade is 15699.6 trillion dollars, having increased 31.6 percent. The growth of import and export is 29.2%, 33.9% respectively. In the same period, the volume of processing trade is 10719.5 trillion dollars, having increased 14.2 percent. That is accounted for 36% in the volume of import and export. The proportion has dropped 3.2% compared to the same period last year.

1.2 The leading position of foreign investment enterprise in foreign trade

1-10, the import and export of foreign investment enterprises is $1.52366 trillion, having increased 17.8%, accounting for 51.2% of the total import and export in China. Among them, the import and export of the state-owned enterprises and other enterprises accounted for 21.1% and 27.7% respectively in the national import and export value.

1.3 High volatility of the import prices of commodity

Influenced by global liquidity, the situation of middle East and north Africa, the

Japanese earthquake and other factors, the import prices of commodity soar, driving the import amount grow fast. January-October the average import price has rised14.7% and the import average quantity has increased 10.6%. Among them, prices of crude oil, iron, product oil, soybeans, edible oil and other commodities have raised 38%, 33.5%, 34.5%, 29.8%, 38.4% respectively compared to last year.

1.4 The decline of foreign trade surplus

In October, the surplus decreased 36.5%, which has expanded 24.1% than September. Among them, the general trade deficit is $5.73 billion (the surplus in the same period last year is $2.47 billion). Processing trade surplus is $33.36 billion, having increased 9.5%. For American, the surplus is $20.06 billion, having increased by 11.3%; For the European Union, the surplus is $13.04 billion, having decreased 10.3%.

2.The existing problems in china foreign trade

2.1 The lag of development in service trade

The development of China’s service trade falls behind trade, the ratio for the service trade export and trade in goods export is 1:9, far lower than the world average 1:4. 2 (the ratio of America is 1:2.6).

2.1.1 Service trade structure unreasonable

The export sector structure is not reasonable. At present the export trade in services mainly concentrated in transportation, tourism, construction and other traditional service department.

The service trade country (region) structure is not reasonable. The import and export trade in service mainly concentrated in Hong Kong, the European Union, the United States and Japan, total import and export in China accounts for about 60% o f the total amount of the above.

The service trade development of region is not enough balanced. China’s service trade mainly concentrated in the developed coastal regions, among them, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Zhejiang and Tianjin listed in the top of the national service

trade export. Beijing service trade accounted for 19% of the total service trade in our country.

2.1.2 The regulations of service trade law not sound

China’s service trade legislation lagged behind, which has a big change until recent years. Service trade legislation hasn’t become a system. At large section of field, the law is under blank condition. Already issued laws and regulations of the service trade not only are abstract, but also lack of maneuverability. And legislative level is low and lack of coordination, which has an impact on unity and transparency our country's service trade, some regulations have certain gap with international trade rules.

2.1.3 Service management system lag behind

At present, China foreign service trade management system has many defects. Such as the central government and local government still have some certain differences services in foreign trade policy and regulations; Service industry has been managed by many parties, which has not been completely solved; Service industry statistics is also not standard, the division standard in the industry, service standards of some place does not accord with international practice.

2. 2 Goods seriously blocked by technical trade barriers

The technical trade barriers, which means that a country or area want to maintain its basic security, human plants and animals safety, protect the environment, and prevent fraud, ensure the quality of products and take some the technical measures voluntary or mandatory.

More than 60% of our country export enterprise encountered overseas technical trade barriers in different degree. Every year, the amount in foreign technical trade barriers has exceeded 25%, about $45 billion to $50 billion.

Technical trade barriers, which has extended to production and processing areas from the field of production and distribution, including not only goods and merchandise, but also extend to finance, information services, has become China’s largest non-tariff barriers being faced by foreign trade enterprises. Technical trade

barriers, which seriously affected the country's merchandise export and increased the country's trade costs, led to trade disputes and regional imbalance in industrial development.

2.3 Slowdown in world economic recovery, external demand growth momentum still insufficient

From the current situation, although the situation of the world economic recovery has not changed, uncertain factors still more, maybe at low levels in a long period. Since the second quarter of this year, due to massive stimulus policies expired or effects gradually weakened, the United States, Japan's economic recovery is slowing down. Although the speed of the European economic recovery is than expected, the internal imbalances and subsequent sluggish growth exist. Especially the United States, European, Japan and other developed economies, where the unemployment rate remains at high levels, the real estate market downturn, capacity utilization is lower than normal level before the crisis, consumption and investment demand is still weak; Government debt burden is heavy, limited room for further expansion of fiscal policy ; Monetary policy continued to expand, it is likely to fall into a liquidity trap, it is difficult to promote the real economy substantially. Although Brazil, India, Russia and other emerging economies keep rapid growth, inflationary pressure increase, the risk of asset bubbles rise, the currency appreciate fast, the downside risks are accumulating. The IMF has adjusted the expected world economic growth in 2011 from 4.3 percent to 4.2 percent.

The current round of economic recovery and structural adjustment are intertwined together. Many countries invest a lot of research and development fundings in new energy, bio-medicine, environmental protection and other strategic emerging industries, but because there is serious path dependence in each country’s development model, so structure adjustment can not be achieved in a short time. So far, strategic and emerging industry has not made substantial technological breakthroughs, realizing industrialization and economies in scale even more arduous task. In a short time, it’s difficult to lead and support the world economy. Therefore,

the world economic recovery will be a long and tortuous process, the growth space of international market demand will be limited next year.

2.4 More obvious of countries’ self-care and trade protectionism heat up

From this year, the economic recovery process continues to further divide. The United States, Europe, Japan and other major economies strengthen the self-care of macroeconomic policies, rising trade protectionism. Recently, the U.S. dollar devaluation, has led to Japan, Korea, Thailand and other countries intervene in currency markets and "currency war" intensifies. In the medium term, the dollar will continue to devalue, exacerbating major currencies’fight, rising business risk and affecting international trade finally. Under the situation of weak demand and competition in the international market, the abuse of the U.S. and Europe abuse trade remedy measures and strengthen the trade protection of green, new energy industry and electronic information product. China, the world's largest exporter, has become the main target of international trade protectionism. Recently, the China trade friction suffered has spread new energy, electronic information and other high-tech, high value-added industry from textile, light industry and other low value-added industries, exchange rate and other macro-level extension of the trend will become more pronounced. Can be expected next year, China’s enterprises will face more complex trade friction situation. In addition, in a short term, the United States and Europe is difficult to truly remove the unreasonable export control measures on China and will affect China’s expanding imports.

2.5 The cost of various elements rising and increase of business pressures

In recent years, the domestic raw material prices and labor costs rise up especially since more obvious this year. The enterprises have felt greater pressure. Factor costs will help to speed up economic restructuring and development patterns, and promote transformation and upgrade. But if the enterprises focus the rise in the

short term, it will inevitably squeeze profit margin, affect exports and foreign trade development. From the current situation analysis, pressure on factor costs next year will be larger. First, raw material prices may continue to rise. Influenced by the global excess liquidity, the weak dollar and speculation and other factors, international prices of energy resources next year is likely to continue rise up, directly contributing to the domestic raw material prices. Meanwhile, faced with the domestic resources and environmental pressures, resource products reform become more urgent, but also push up prices of raw materials. Second, labor costs may continue to rise. At the end of September this year, 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) have raised the minimum wage. Enterprises generally indicated that they are facing greater wage pressures. Third, the energy saving costs rise. Currently, the country increase energy conservation efforts, which may help to conserve resources and protect the environment, but it will increase production and operation costs.

2.6 More competitive international market and the increasing competitive pressure faced by enterprise

Since the international financial crisis, the United States, Europe and other developed economies, attached great importance to the real economy and hope to stimulate domestic economic recovery. Especially this year, many countries hope to increase exports to boost its economy and have taken policy measures. United States and Europe has introduced the “export promotion and import control”measures to implement the "re-industrialization" and encourage industry return. The U.S. Obama government has proposed the five-year "export multiplier" program. Under the slow recovery of the world economy and weak demand growth of international markets, countries’ compet ition for the international market will become moreintensive. On the one hand, the United States, Europe and other developed countries attach great importance to exports. The competition with China is bound to intensify in the high-tech, high value-added export. On the other hand, more and more developing countries join the global economy and participate in international division of labor, will be a direct challenge and competition to China’s traditional industries and

products. In addition, many countries use currency devaluation means to boost the economy and promote export. So RMB appreciation pressure, foreign exchange risk and competitive pressures are increasing.

3.The solution to the problems in the foreign trade

3.1 To establish a sound foreign service trade management

First, our country should establish the national service trade management mechanism which can various cooperate closely with central and local department. Meanwhile, we should build the sound of the system in service trade and make a full use of China’s service trade association in international service trade.

Second, we should strengthen the international communication and cooperation in various forms. We also should build the close cooperation with the WTO, UNCTAD, the European Union and other international organizations.

At last, we should improve the relevant laws and establish the legal system in service trade. In order that our service trade can get into a normal and healthy track, we should strengthen to research the CATT, the GATS, WTO and relevant provisions. According to the requirements of the GATS, we should establish a sound legal system in conformity with national economic development goals as soon as possible. At the same time, we should correct use the exceptional provision in the GATS and build some appropriate protection policies in order to protect the normal development of China’s service trade.

3.2 To explore other foreign markets using a variety of ways

The government should establish early warning mechanisms to protect our foreign trade. Relevant government departments should closely follow the key exporting countries and regions, and to keep highly sensitive to information. The government should take some preferential measures to develop the recycling economy and support the development of “green” business. The government and relevant departments should help the enterprises to open up other markets to avoid trade risks. The enterprise can use a variety of ways as the labor export, technology export, foreign investment in the consumer countries, local production and processing and so

on. We can change the exporting place into origin of the goods to avoid the trade barriers.

3.3Balance the domestic markets and external market

We must change the growth mode and focus on improving the effectiveness of export as our export strategy. From the pursuit of export volume to the pursuit of export quality and efficiency, we can make a plan to improve China’s export commodity structure.

We must balance both internal and external market. If we expand the domestic market has a population of 1.3 billion, China will continue to maintain rapid growth and could quickly reduce the gap with the developed countries. Therefore, China can withstand the risk from the outer market and keep the position in the international trade. It can bring more chance to the China export.

3.4 Adjust the structure of the export products

In the process of China’s foreign trade development，we must get rid of excessive dependence on the United States and actively explore new market, reduce the pressure of traditional export market. In addition, we must strengthen technical innovation and expand our independent intellectual property products export.

Since the long term, our foreign trade largely depends on the production of low cost, lack of innovation of technology support, implement operations. This makes many countries adopt anti-dumping repeatedly to our country. In the current situation, we should change the traditional development mode of foreign trade, strengthen the development of new technology, improve our export commodity structure and increase the export of hi-tech product. This is not only related to the image and status of Chinese export commodities in the international market, but also is a key factor of our sustainable development.

3.5 Increase the tax rebates and build up our own brand

In the current situation, the increase of the export product cost factor has become an inevitable trend. There is no doubt this will increase the business pressure to the enterprises. However, we should see the pressure as a kind of momentum to adjust the

structure and improve the shortcoming in the internal environment. Our government should encourage the export and Increase the tax rebates. We should build up our own brand and increase the added value of our products. In addition, we should improve the management of our enterprise. Let our products become famous in the world and win many new orders to release the business pressure.

3.6 Pay attention to the development of our Independent intellectual property rights

Enterprises should strengthen standardized consciousness and adopt a reasonable and applicable international standard. Enterprises should strictly implement ISO9000, ISO14000 management standard and combine those standards to the practical situation. We must ensure our products are of high quality and environmental. Through this system, our enterprises will stand a favorable place. The enterprise should pay attention to support and cultivate the independent intellectual property rights and the independent brand merchandise exports, improve the export commodity added value. In addition, the enterprise should improve the product inspection and testing ability. Our products will win more and more consumers from many countries. Enterprise should spend research and development expenses to produce the advanced products that can meet foreign technology standard especially strict requirements. We should enhance the consciousness of environmental protection consciousness, and strive to make our products as the green products. Though these ways, will our products and enterprises become more competitive in the international market.

4.Conclusion

4.1 Steady and rapid development of the domestic economy

This year, China accelerates economic restructure and development pattern. The national economy continues to move in the expected direction of macro regulation. The good momentum has been further consolidated, appearing the steady growth transformation from the rebound to the good sign. "The twelfth five-year" plan and implementation will give new vigour to the economy. Urbanization and

industrialization will accelerate the development, upgrading consumption structure, encouraging private capital investment, and promoting coordinated regional development will provide strong support for economic development, China’s economy is expected to remain stable rapid development. Meanwhile, the first two years China has taken a series of policies and measures steady exports in line with WTO rules to solve the international financial crisis and expand imports which will remain stable overall, but also conducive to sustained and stable growth of foreign trade.

4.2 The competition and vitality increasing to the enterprises

Since t he international financial crisis, China’s enterprises face a serious impact. After this round of crises, companies continue to improve the overall international competitiveness; vitality has been enhanced to speed up structural adjustment. Product quality, technological content and added value has been further improved. From the current situation, China’s international competitiveness of enterprises is very strong and business orders are adequat e. First, China’s major export industries in the international division have formed a long chain, high concentration and scale economies advantages. Infrastructure and support services become more comprehensive, integrated advantages of enterprise is still more obvious. Second, China’s export products cover a wide range, from the obvious advantages of the traditional labor-intensive products to high-tech electromechanical products and high and new technology industry. Anti-foreign demand volatility and ability to spread risk, is conducive to maintain the overall stability of export.

Considering various factors, China’s foreign trade will continue to maintain growth, but the speed of growth may be down. Therefore, China should properly handle the relationship between stable foreign trade growth and development mode. We must see the development of foreign trade is facing complexity and uncertainty influenced by domestic and international environment. China should take measures to maintain stable development of foreign trade and expand import. And also China should be fully aware of the importance of foreign trade structure adjustment to speed

up the development mode of foreign trade, optimize foreign trade structure, and foster international cooperation and multilateral new advantages. At the same time, China should further improve the import policies to promote trade facilitation, increase import of advanced technology, key components and domestic shortage materials. In addition, China should make efforts to improve the trade balance.

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