Rational Expectations Equilibria in the OG Model with Production
激光振镜扫描图形失真及校正方法
采用二次多项式代替原来的线性关系， 可将式 (8)式(9)转化为： x æ ì ⋅ e ± d 2 + y 2 ö + m 1 x + m 2 y + m 3 xy ïx ′ = ø k è í ï x x = n + n + n ′ 1 2y 3 y îy (10) 这就是理论点和失真点之间的二阶关系。
光束经过镜 2 后的偏转角为 2θ y 。当激光束垂直射 到工作台时， 激光束在工作台面上的投影为 (0， 0) 点， 此时镜 1 与镜 2 的偏转角 θ x 和 θ 分别为零。当
y
激光束射到工作面上的任一点 ( x，y ) 时， 可以得出
1 振镜扫描系统失真原因分析
1.1 映射关系非线性 如图 1 所示的坐标系中， 激光束入射方向平行 于 X 轴， 其偏 X 轴振镜(镜 1)以平行于 Z 的轴转动， θ θ Y 转角为 x ， 光束经过镜 1 反射后的偏转角为 2 x ； 轴振镜(镜 2)以平行于 X 的轴转动， 其偏转角为 θ y ，
2( p， - q)、 正方形顶点的位置坐标为别为 1( p，q)、 （x，y） 3( - p，q) 、 4( - p， - q) ， 畸变坐标为 ， 以x
若镜 1 固定且 θ x ≠0， 令 2 θ x =a， 则由式 （1） 有：
( x - e ⋅ a) y2 - 2 =1 2 d (d ⋅ a)
（6）
n2 = k3 (m1 x + m2) + k 4 。由此得出点 ( x，y) 和 ( x ′ ， y ′ )的关系式：
此时， 光束在 y 轴没有畸变。由式 （5） 和式 （6） 得出失真图形的校正函数为： x æ 2 ì ⋅ d + y 2 + eö ïx ′ = ø k è （7） í ï = ′ îy y 假设理论上的直线为 y = k1 x + k2 ， 失真后的直 线为 y ′ = k3 x ′ + k 4 ， 两条直线经过平移后得到 n1 y +
宏观经济学习题及答案（1-8课）
宏观经济学习题及答案（1-8课）Macroeconomics(T enth Edition)Rudiger Dornbusch, Stanley Fisher, Richard StartsCHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTIONConceptual Problems/doc/196094d626fff705cc170a4c.html ing the aggregate supply-aggregate demand model explain how output and price are determined. Will output vary or stay fixed in the long run? Suppose the aggregate demand curve were to remain fixed: what can we infer about the behavior of prices over time?Answer:The way output and prices are determined in the aggregate can be analyzed most easily using the AD-AS model; however, we have to determine first which time frame we have in mind.The vertical AS-curve describes the very long run and output is determined by aggregate supply alone while the price level is determined by the level of aggregated demand relative to the output the economy can supply.The horizontal AS-curve describes the very short run and output is determined by aggregate demand alone while the price level is fixed and unaffected by changes in output.The upward-sloping AS-curve describes the medium run and fluctuations in aggregate supply or aggregate demand can determine actual output and the price level under the assumption that productive capacity is given.The AD-AS framework is a very simplified representation of the real world that cannot describe the behavior of all people and enterprises in an economy. In this framework, the effects ofchanges in aggregate demand on output and prices depend largely on the slope of the AS-curve. We should keep in mind that the long-run AS-curve tends to shift to the right from year to year as potential output tends to grow. Therefore, even in the unlikely event that the AD-curve remains fixed, the price level would change, that is, decline over time.Technical Problems1.Suppose that actual output is $120 billion and potential (full-employment) output is $156 billion. What is an output gap in this hypothetical economy? Based on your estimate of the output gap, would you expect the unemployment level to be higher or lower than usual?Answer：The textbook defines the output gap as the difference between actual GDP and potential GDP. Therefore the output gap in this hypothetical economy is -$36 billion. Since actual output falls short of potential output, we should expect the unemployment rate to be higher than usual.Chapter 2 National Income AccountingConceptual Problems1.what would happen to GDP if the government hired unemployed workers, who had been receiving amount $TR in unemployment benefits, as government employees and now paid the2.m $TR to do nothing? Explain.Answer:Government transfer payments (TR) do not arise out of any production activity and are thus not counted in the value of GDP. If the government hired the people who receive transfer payments, then their wages would be counted as part ofgovernme nt purchases (G), which is counted in GDP. Therefore GDP would rise even if these workers were paid to do nothing, as government purchases are measured on a cost basis.Technical Problems8.Suppose you buy a $100 government bond that is due next year. How much nominal interest will you receive if inflation is 4 percent over the year and the bond promises a real return of 3 percent?Answer:The real interest rate (r) is defined as the nominal interest rate (i) minus the rate of inflation (π). Therefore the nominal interest rate is the real interest rate plus the rate of inflation, ori = r + π = 3% + 4% = 7%.Chapter 3 Growth and AccumulationConceptual2. Can the Solow growth model help to explain the phenomenon of convergence? Answer:The Solow model predicts convergence, that is, countries with the same production function, savings rate, and population growth will eventually reach the same level of income per capita. In other words, a poor country may eventually catch up to a richer one by saving at the same rate and making technological innovations. However, if these countries have different savings rates, they will reach different levels of income per capita, even though their long-term growth rates will be the same.Technical9.For a Cobb-Douglas production function Y=AKθN（1-θ），verify that 1-θis labor’s share of income.[Hint: Labor’s sha re of income is the piece of income which results from that labor(MP L×N)divided by total income. ]Answer:The Cobb-Douglas production function is defined asY = F(N,K) = AN1-θKθ.The marginal product of labor can then be derived asMPN = (?Y)/(?N) = (1 - θ)AN-θKθ = (1 - θ)AN1-θKθ/N = = (1 - θ)(Y/N)==> labor's share of income = [MPN*(N)]/Y = (1 - θ)(Y/N)*[(N)/(Y)] = (1 - θ) Chapter 4 Growth and Policy Conceptual1.What is endogenous growth? How do endogenous growth models differ from the neoclassical models of growth presented in Chapter 3?Answer:Endogenous or self-sustained growth supposedly can be achieved by policies that affect a nation's savings rate and therefore the proportion of GDP that goes towards investment. The neoclassical growth model of Chapter 3 predicted that long-term growth can only be achieved through technological progress and that changes in the savings rate have only transitory effects. The endogenous growth model, however, predicts that countries with a higher savings rate can achieve higher long-term growth and that a nation's government can affect the long-term growth rate by implementing policies that affect the savings rate.2. Why doesn’t the constant marginal poduct of capital assumed in this chapter’s simple model of endogen ous growth create a situation in which a single large firm dominaties the economy, as traditional microeconomic reasoning would suggest?Answer:A simple model with constant returns to scale to capitalalone implies increasing returns to scale to all factors taken together, which could cause a single large firm to dominate the economy. However, such a model ignores the possibility that external returns to capital exist, in addition to the internal (private) returns. In other words, more investment not only leads to a higher and more efficient capital stock but also to new ideas and new ways of doing things, which can then be copied by others. Therefore, a single firm does not necessarily reap all of the benefits of increased output.Chapter 5 Aggregate supply and demandConceptual2. Explain why the calssical supply curve is vertical. What are the mechanisms that ensure continued full employment of labor in the calssical case?Answer:The classical aggregate supply curve is vertical, since the classical model assumes that nominal wages always adjust immediately to changes in the price level. This implies that the labor market is always in equilibrium and output is always at the full-employment level. If the AD-curve shifts to the right, firms try to increase output by hiring more workers, and they try to attract them by offering higher nominal wages. However, since we are already at full employment, the overall work force does not increase, so firms merely bid up nominal wages. The nominal wage increase is passed on in the form of higher product prices. Since the level of wages and prices will have increased proportionally, the real wage rate and the levels of employment and output will remain unchanged.If there is a decrease in demand, workers are willing to accept lower nominal wages to stay employed. Lower wage costs enablefirms to lower their prices, and ultimatelynominal wages and prices decrease proportionally while the real wage rate and the levels of employment and output remain the same.Technical2. Suppose that the government increases spending from G to G’while simultaneously raising taxes in such a way that, at the initial level of output, the budget remains balanced.a. Show the effect of this change on the aggregate demand schedule.b. How does this affect output and the price level in the Keynisian case?c. How does this affect output and the price level in the classical case? Answer:a. According to the balanced budget theorem, a simultaneous and equal increase in government purchases and taxes will shift the AD-curve to the right, as the positive impact of the increase in government spending is greater than the negative impact of the tax increase. But if the AS-curve is upward sloping, then the balanced budget multiplier will be less than one, that is, the increase in output will be less than the increase in government purchases. This occurs because part of the fiscal expansion will be crowded out, that is, the level of private spending will decrease, due to a higher price level, lower real money balances, and the resulting rise in interest rates.b. In the Keynesian case, the AS-curve is horizontal and the price level remains unchanged. There is no real balance effect and therefore income increases more than in 2.a., that is, output increases by the whole shift in the AD-curve. However, theinterest rate still increases and therefore the balanced budget multiplier is less than one (but greater than in 2.a.).c. In the classical case, the AS-curve is vertical and the output level remains unchanged. In this case, a shift in the AD-curve leads to a price increase and real money balances decline. Therefore interest rates increase further than in 2.b. or even 2.a., leading to full crowding out of investment. Hence the balanced budget multiplier is zero in the classical case.Chapter 6 Aggregate Supply: Wages, Prices, and UnemploymentConceptual1.Explain how the aggregate supply and Phillips curves are related to each other. Can any information be derived from one that cannot be derived from the other? Answer:The aggregate supply curve and the Phillips curve describe very similar relationships and both curves can be used to analyze the same phe nomena. The AS-curve shows a relationship between the price level and the level of output, while the Phillips curve shows a relationship between the inflation and unemployment rates. For example, a movement along the upward-sloping AS-curve depicts an increase in the price level that is associated with an increase in the level of output. But Okun’s law states that changes in output and the rate of unemployment are tightly linked. Therefore, with an increase in the price level (a higher level of inflation) there will be a higher level of output (a lower level of unemployment). Thus the AS-curve is upward sloping while the Phillips curve is downward-sloping. This downward-sloping Phillips curve shifts whenever inflationary expectations change. If one assumes that workers will change their wage demands whenever their inflationary expectations change, one can conclude that a shift in the Phillips curve corresponds to a shift in the upward-sloping AS-curve, since higher wages imply a higher cost of production.The simple AD-AS diagram depicts a static framework, which relates changes in the price level to changes in output supplied or demanded. The Phillips-curve, on the other hand, depicts a dynamic framework in which percentage price changes (the rate of inflation) are related to changes in the unemployment rate. Along the short-run Phillips-curve inflationary expectations are assumed to be constant. If one assumes that price expectations are constant along the upward-sloping AS-curve, the AD-AS framework becomes even more compatible with the Phillips curve framework.CHAPTER 7 THE ANATOM Y OF INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT1.Discuss how the following changes would affect the natural (or frictional) rate of unemployment:a. Elimination of unionsb. Increased participation of teenagers in the labor market.Answer:a. It is unclear whether the elimination of unions would actually serve to reduce the natural rate of unemployment. The insider-outsider theory of the labor market suggests that firms bargain with unions (the insiders) and are not much concerned with the unemployed (the outsiders). If unions were eliminated, firms would tend to hire unemployed workers at a lower wage rate, thus reducing the natural unemployment rate. On the otherhand, unions tend to preserve stable jobs for their members. Eliminating unions could lead not only to a reduction in bargaining power for labor in wage negotiations but also to an increase in the natural rate of unemployment. If labor unions were eliminated, the wage differentials between unionized and non-unionized workers would disappear and, in the process, some income would be redistributed.b. Increased labor force participation of teenagers would at least initially increase the natural rate of unemployment, since teenagers have a higher frequency of unemployment than older, more experienced workers. However, as more and more teenagers entered the labor force and more good and stable jobs became available to them, the natural rate of unemployment would start to decline again. With more people in the labor force, the supply of labor would be higher and wage rates would be driven down, contributing to wage stagnation.2. The following information is to be used for calculations of the unemployment rate: Suppose there are two major groups, adults and teenagers, with adults divided into men and women. Teenagers account for 10 percent of the labor force; adults account for 90 percent. Women make up 35 percent of the adult labor force. Suppose also that the unemployment rates for these groups are follows: teenagers, 19 percent; men, 7 percent; women, 6 percent.a. Calculate the aggregate unemployment rate.b. What if the share of teenagers in the labor force increases from 10 to 15 percent. How will this affect the aggregate unemployment rate?Answer:a. The aggregate unemployment rate can be calculated byadding the unemployment rates of different groups weighted by their share of the labor force. The data in the problem indicate that teenagers constitute 10% of the labor force. The adult work force (the other 90%) is divided into 35% females and 65% males. Thus we can calculate the overall unemployment rate as: u = (0.1)(0.19) + (0.9)[(0.35)(0.06) + (0.65)(0.07)] = 0.019 + (0.9)(0.021 + 0.0455)= 0.019 + 0.05985 = 0.07885 = 7.9%.b. If the labor force participation rate of teenagers increases to 15%, the overall unemployment rate changes to:u1 = (0.15)(0.19) + (0.85)[(0.35)(0.06) + (0.65)(0.07)]= 0.0285 + (0.85)(0.021 + 0.0455)= 0.0285 + 0.056525 = 0.085025 = 8.5%.CHAPTER 8 POLICY PREVIEW1. How does the Taylor rule help a central bank to set interest rates? How could this rule be adapted if the central bank decided to follow a policy of pure inflation targeting?Answer：The Taylor rule serves as a guide for a central bank on how to set the nominal interest rate in response to current economic conditions. Specifically it states that:i t = r*+ πt+ α*( πt - πt*) + β*[100* (Y t - Y t* )/Y t* ]and suggests that if the inflation rate goes above the inflation target rate π* set by t he central bank or if output goes above the full-employment level Y*, the central bank should raise interest rates . Clearly, the larger the size of the coefficients α and β, the more aggressively the central bank should respond to a change in either infla tion or output. If the coefficient β is set to β = 0, the Tayl or rule corresponds to strict inflation targeting, in which changes in output are ignored while the central bank stillresponds to changes in the inflation rate.2. Assume output is currently 1.6% below its full-employment level and the inflation rate is3.5%. Assume further that the central bank has specified that the inflation coefficient is α = 0.5 and that the “natural real interest rate” is assumed to be 2%. At what level should the central bank set the nominal interest rate if it wants to enforce a strict inflation target of 2.5%?Answer：The Taylor rule suggests that a central bank sets the nominal interest rate in the following way:i t = r*+ πt+ α*( πt - πt*) + β*[100* (Y t - Y t* )/Y t* ]Strict inflation targeting suggests that the output coefficient is set to β = 0, so it does not matter how far GDP is below its potential. However, if the current inflation rate is 3.5%, then according to the Taylor rule the central bank should set the nominal interest rate at 6%, sincei t = 2 + 3.5 + 0.5*(3.5 – 2.5) = 5.5 + 05*(1) = 6.。
OLG戴蒙德模型：理解现代宏观经济学的基础
戴蒙德模型：理解现代宏观经济学的基础正是由于有限生命和不同生命阶段的假设，戴蒙德模型中的总体经济出现了本质上不同于拉姆齐模型的特征，而且该模型中的一些经济特征甚至同微观经济学原理也是相反的。
现有经济学文献在运用代际模型分析宏观问题时，采用的基本上都是戴蒙德模型的框架。
可以说，如果没有生产部门的引入，OLG模型不可能获得如此强大的分析能力和如此广泛的应用。
在2010年度三位诺贝尔经济学奖得主当中，最为我们国内经济学者所熟悉的可能就是彼得·戴蒙德。
尽管戴蒙德是因为他在劳动经济学领域的研究而被授予诺贝尔奖，但是，戴蒙德在经济学界最为大家所熟知的却是宏观经济学中以其名字命名的戴蒙德模型。
具有生产部门的OLG模型戴蒙德模型是为宏观经济模型建立微观基础的两大基本模型之一（另一个是拉姆齐模型），也被称为代际交叠模型（Overlapping Generation Model，以下简称“OLG模型”）。
从经济学史的角度来看，该模型最初是由法国经济学家莫里斯·阿莱斯在1947年的一本教科书中提出的，然而阿莱斯的工作在经济学界几乎没有任何影响。
1958年，著名经济学家保罗·萨缪尔森在讨论利率的决定问题时提出了一个纯交换经济的OLG模型，并用来讨论货币在经济中的作用。
1965年，戴蒙德又建立了一个具有生产部门的OLG模型，并用来讨论资本积累的黄金律以及国债在经济中的作用。
正是由于戴蒙德的OLG模型引进了生产部门，所以该模型得以成为现在教科书中的标准模型，有的教科书甚至直接称之为戴蒙德模型。
戴蒙德模型讲述的是这样一个故事。
在一个只有一种产品的经济中，假设该产品由劳动要素和资本要素共同生产，该产品既可以用于消费，也可以作为投资品用于投资。
再假设个人的生命分为两期：年轻时期和老年时期。
年轻人具有生产能力，但老年人没有生产能力。
由此，整个社会在任何一个时期都只包括两种类型的人：具有生产能力的年轻人和没有生产能力的老年人。
联立方程组
p lim ( A / B) = p lim ( A) / p lim ( B) 。
因此
(( )) ∑∑ p lim(b2
)
=
p
lim ( β2
)
+
p
lim
Yt − Y
εt
Yt − Y 2
(( )) ∑∑ =
p
lim ( β2
)
+
p
lim
Yt
−Y
ε
t
为了证明 OLS 估计量 b2 是不一致的，首先写出其 OLS 估计量
4
( )( ) ( ) ∑ ∑ b2 =
Ct − C Yt − Y = Ct Yt − Y
2
2
( ) ( ) ∑ ∑ Yt −Y
Yt − Y
把 Ct 代入
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ∑ ∑ ∑ ∑ b2 =
( β1 + β2Yt + εt ) Yt − Y
第十章 联立方程组 Ch10 Simultaneous-Equation Models
1. The Nature of Simultaneous-Equation Models
在联立方程组模型中，联合被解释变量称作内生变量（endogenous varialbe），非随机的或可 以被看作非随机的变量称作外生变量（exogenous, or preditermined, variables）。我们不应该 在不考虑方程组中其它方程信息的情况下而估计某一个方程的参数。 如果我们不考虑其它方程的信息而仍然使用 OLS 方法估计其中一个方程的参数，会出现什 么情况呢？我们知道 OLS 方法的 10 大假定中要求解释变量是非随机的，即使解释变量随机， 也至少要求其与随机干扰项独立（或至少不相关）。如果这两个条件得不到满足，那么 OLS 估计量不仅仅有偏而且不一致。而联立方程组导致了内生解释变量的出现，其 OLS 估计量 必定是有偏和不一致的。
高级宏观经济学讲义(南开大学 刘晓峰教授-罗默的教材)【完整版】
高级宏观经济学讲义（南开大学刘晓峰教授－罗默的教材）【完整版】(文档可以直接使用，也可根据实际需要修订后使用,可编辑放心下载）第二章索洛经济增长模型一、问题的提出1.什么因素决定了经济增长？2.经济增长的一般趋势是什么？3.为什么国家或地区之间存在着收入差异？4.穷国能否赶上富国？二、生产函数1.投入与产出的函数形式AttFYtK)(t(L)())((),其中，Y为产量，K为资本，L为劳动力，A为知识或劳动的有效性，t表示时间注意：AL为有效劳动，此种形式的技术进步为“劳动增进型〞或“哈罗德中性〞思考：如果知识进入的形式不是Y=F(K,AL)〔哈罗德中性〕，而是Y=F(AK,L)〔索洛中性〕或Y=AF(K,L)〔希克斯中性〕，结果会有何不同？[只有劳动增进型技术进步被证明与稳态的存在相一致]2.生产函数的特性假设 〔1〕规模报酬不变：F(cK,cAL)=cF(K,AL)，对于c ≥0含义：经济足够大，专业化收益被穷尽；其他投入品〔如自然资源〕相对不重要令c=1/AL,那么),(1)1,(AL K F ALAL K F = 令有效劳动的人均资本k=K/AL ，有效劳动人均产量y=Y/AL ，那么y=f(k),总产量Y=ALf(k)〔2〕边际产品递减：f(k)满足f(0)=0,f ’(k)>0,f 〞(k)<0，f ’(k)是资本的边际产品 【证明】Y=ALf(k)两边分别对K 、L 求导数： 资本的边际产品为：)('1)('k f ALk ALf K Y ==∂∂ 有效劳动的边际产品为：)(')(])()[(')()(2k kf k f AL Kk ALf k f AL Y -=-+=∂∂ 〔3〕稻田条件：∞=→)('lim k f o k ,0)('lim =∞→k f k一个满足上述条件假设的新古典生产函数图示f(k)k一个特殊的生产函数：C-D 生产函数)(),(1AL K AL K F αα-=，10<<αααk ALKAL K F k f ===)()1,()( 思考：试证明C-D 生产函数满足3个特性假设。
政策不确定性的宏观经济后果2365
政策不确定性的宏观经济后果2365经济理论与经济管理2014年第2期政策不确定性的宏观经济后果金雪军钟意王义中(浙江大学经济学院，杭州310027) [提要]本文采取贝克的政策不确定性指数，运用FAVAR方法分析政策不确定性冲击对中国宏观经济的影响。
经验结果发现，政策不确定性冲击对GDP、投资、消费、出口和价格变动会带来负向影响，导致实际有效汇率贬值，促使股票价格和房地产价格下跌。
同时发现，政策不确定性作用于宏观经济的主要机制为预期渠道。
该结论表明，政府应当尽量保持宏观经济政策的稳定性和持续性，并加强引导公众合理预期。
[关键词]政策不确定性FAVAR模型;政策不确定性指数[中图分类号]F822.0 [文献标识码]A [文章编号]1000-596X (2014) 02一0017-10这种反向关系在不同国家(例如发达国家和发展中国家)和不同时间都是稳健的。
因一、引言一直以来，不确定性对经济的影响被学术界所经济萧条的一个最突出的特征就是不确定性的关注。
[5J尤其是2007年爆发的美国次贷危机，使得普遍蔓延。
[IJ美国联邦公开市场委员会一再强调不政府层面和学术界更加关注这一问题。
经济主体面确定性是导致美国2001年以及2007-2009年经济对的不确定性水平突然变化已经被视为驱动美国商J衰退的一个关键因素。
由斯托克和沃森(Stock业周期的一个重要的冲击。
[6J布卢姆(Bloom)[7and 使Watson)[3J也认为美国在2007-2009年经济衰退用一个简单的简约式(Reduced-form)VAR模型，期间，产出和就业下降的主要原因来自金融和不确估计不确定性冲击会减少大约1%的美国工业产定性冲击。
大量证据显示不确定性是反经济周期出。
并且初始下降以后，工业产出迅速恢复，随后的，在经济萧条时剧烈增加而在经济繁荣时下降，产生超调，超过其总体趋势大约1%。
古里奥等人并且不确定性强烈影响经济衰退和复苏程度。
劳经常用文献
劳经常用文献Labor Demand and SupplyPart 1:1.Altonji, J., and R. Shakotko. "Do Wages Rise with Job Seniority?" Review of Economic Studies(July 1987).2.Ashenfelter 1980 Econometrica, “Unemployment as Disequilibrium in a model of aggregate labor supply”.3.Borjas, George J. 2003. “The Labor Demand Curve Is Downward Sloping: Reexamining theImpact of Immigration on the Labor Market.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 118(November): 1335-74.4.Card, D., and A. Krueger. "Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-FoodIndustry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania: Reply." American Economic Review 90, no. 5 (December 2000): 1397-1420.5.Gronau. (1977) "Leisure, Home Production, and Work -- The Theory of the Allocation of TimeRevisited," Journal of Political Economy, 85.6 (December), 1099-1123.6.H eckman and Sedlacek 1985,JPE,”Heterogeneity,Aggregation and Market Wage Functions :an Empirical Model of Self-Selection in the Labor market”,v(93,)n6.7.Krueger and S. Pischke. (1992) "The Effect of Social Security on Labor Supply: A CohortAnalysis of the Notch Generation," Journal of Labor Economics, 10.4 (October), 412-437./doc/1f405257.html,ncaster 1979, Econometrica, “E conometric Models for the duration of umemployment”Mortensen, 1986, HLE, “Job search and market analysis”.9.Kiefer and Neumann, 1979, JPE, “An empirical job-search model, with a test of the constant reservation wage hypothesis.”.10.Jovanovic (1979) "Firm-Specific Capital and Turnover," Journal of Political Economy, 87.6(December), 1246-60.11.Becker. (1965) "A Theory of the Allocation of Time," Economic Journal, 75.299 (September),493-517.12. Topel (1991) "Specific Capital, Mobility, and Wages: Wages Rise with Job Seniority," Journalof Political Economy, 99.1 (February), 145-167.13.Topel and M. Ward. (1992) "Job Mobility and the Careers of Young Men," Quarterly Journalof Economics, 107.2 (May), 439-480.14.Rosen. (1986) "The Theory of Equalizing Differences" Handbook of Labor Economics, Vol. 1, Amsterdam: Elsevier Science, 641-92.Part 2:1.Abbot and Ashenfelter. (1976) "Labor Supply, Commodity Demand, and the Allocation of Time," Review of Economic Studies, 43.3 (October), 389-411.2.Ashenfelter 1984 Rochester Conference “Macroeconomic and Microeconomic Analyses of Labor Supply”.3.Ashenfelter and Heckman. (1974) "The Estimation of Income and Substitution Effects in a Model of Family Labor Supply," Econometrica, 42.1 (January), 389-411.4.Brown. (1980) "Equalizing Differences Economics, Vol. 94.1 (February), 113-5.Browning and Chiappori 1998 Econometrica “Efficient Intr-Household Allocations : A General Characterization and Empirical Tests”.6.Card, "Immigrant Inflows, Native Outflows, and the Labor Market Impacts of higher Immigration." Journal of Labor Economics 19, no. 1 (2001): 22-64.7.Card"The Impact of the Mariel Boatlift on the Miami Labor Market." Industrial and Labor Relations Review 43, no. 2 (1990): 245-257.8.Card. (1994) "Intertemporal Labor Supply: An Assessment," in C. Sims, ed., Advances in Econometrics: Proceedings of the Econometric Society Sixth World Congress (New York: Cambridge University Press).9.Eissa and Liebman. (1996) "Labor Supply Response to the Earned Income Tax Credit," Quarterly Journal of Economics, 111.2 (May), 605-37. (also NBER working Paper No. 5158, June 1995)10.Gruber and Cullen. (1996) "Spousal Labor Supply as Insurance: Does Unemployment Insurance Crowd Out the Added Worker Effect?" Journal of Labor Economics, 18.3 (July), 546-72. (also NBER Working Paper No. 5608 , June 1996)11.Heckman, J. (1974), “Shadow prices, market wages and labor supply,” Econometrica, 42(4), pp. 679–694.12.Juster and Stafford, 1991 JEL “The allocation of Time: Empirical Findings, Behavioral Models and Problems of Measurement”.13.Kooreman and Kapteyn 1990 JHR “On the Empirical Implementation of Some Game TheoreticModels of Household Labor Supply”.14.MaCurdy, "An Empirical Model of Labor Supply in a Life-Cycle Setting." Journal of Political Economy 89, no. 6 (December 1981): 1059-1085.15.Neumark, and Wascher. "Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania: Comment." American Economic Review90, no. 5 (December 2000): 1362-1396. NBER Working Paper No. 3602, 1991)16.Rosen (1974) "Hedonic Prices and Implicit Markets: Product Differentiation in Competition" Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 82.1 (January-February), 34-55.17.Killingworth Labor Supply Chap 3 and Chap 4.18.Mortensen, Job search and labor market analysis Chapter 15,/doc/1f405257.html,bor demand elasticitiesExtensions to the basic modelThe consumption function and interpemporal choice20.Becker, G. and N. Tomes. "Human Capital and the Rise and Fall of Families." Journal of Labor Economics 4, no. 3.2 (1986): S1-S39.21.Ben-Porath, Yoram. "The Production of Human Capital Over the Life Cycle.'' Journal ofPolitical Economy 75, no. 4, part 1 (August 1967): 352-365.22..Beckerand Ghez. The Allocation of Time and Goods Over the Life-Cycle. New York: Columbia University Press, 1975.Wolpin 1987 Econometrica, “Estimating a structural search model: The transition from schoolLabor Market Segregation(1) Male-Female Wage Differentials1.Altonji J. G. And R. M. Blank, “Race and Gender in the Labor Market,” in O. C. Ashenfelter andD. Card (eds.) Handbook in Labor Economics, V ol. 3C, 3143-32592.Amy Y.C. Liu, 2004, "Sectoral Gender Wage Gap in Vietnam ", Oxford Development Studies, V ol. 32(2)：pp.225-239.3.Brown, Randall S., Marilyn Moon and Barbara S. Zoloth, 1980, “Incorporating Occupational Attainment in Studies of Male-Female Earnings Differentials”, The Journal of Human Resources,V ol. 33 (1): pp.3-28.4. Daniel L. Millimet and Le Wang, 2005, "A Distributional Analysis of the Gender Earnings Gap in Urban China", working paper.5. Elizabeth Brainerd, 2000, "Women in Transitions: Changes in Gender Wage Differentials in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union", Industrial and Labor Relations Review, V ol. 54(1): pp.138-162.6. Francine D. Blau and Lawrence M. Kahn, 1997, “Swimming Upstream: Trends in the GenderWage Differential in the 1980s”, Journal of Labor Economics, V ol. 15 (1): pp.1-42.7. Francine D. Blau and Lawrence M. Kahn, 2000, “Ge nder Differences in Pay”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, V ol. 14(4): pp.75-99.8.Gustafsson. Bojorn and Shi Li, 2000, “Economic Transformation and the Gender Earnings Gapin Urban China”, Journal of Population Economics, 13: pp.305-329.9. Jeremiah Cotton, 1988, "On the Decomposition of WageDifferentials", The Review ofEconomics and statistics, V ol. 7(2): pp.236-243.10. June O'Neill and Solomon Polachek, 1993, "Why Gender Gap in Wages Narrowed in the1980s", Journal of Labor Economics, Vol. 11(1): pp.205-228。
lecture3[1]
How to represent this game?
6
Mike Shor Game Theory & Business Strategy
Representing a Game
PLAYERS Philip Morris No Ad Ad
No Ad
Reynolds Ad STRATEGIES
Mike Shor Game Theory & Business Strategy
Where does this lead us?
We’ve defined the “game” but not the outcome
Mike Shor Game Theory & Business Strategy
2
Equilibrium
The likely outcome of a game when rational, strategic agents interact
If
Philip Morris advertises: If Philip Morris does not advertise:
Mike Shor Game Theory & Business Strategy
9
Dominance
A
strategy is dominant if it outperforms all other choices no matter what opposing players do
Some inequalities are weak (), At least one is strong(>)
By “dominant” we will mean “strictly dominant”
新古典的 “新增长理论”：一个批判性的回顾
2005年中国经济学年会征文（初稿）研究领域：宏观经济学发展经济学新古典的 "新增长理论"：一个批判性的回顾黄伟力（暨南大学 510632）内容提要：在过去的20年里，经济增长理论一直是经济学中研究活动最为密集的领域。
本文旨在对代表性的增长模型进行深入的讨论。
新增长理论的主要贡献是，提出了各种不同的机制来模拟知识的产生如何导致长期的经济增长，进而，以不同的方法重新讲述了资本积累之于长期经济增长的重要性；新增长理论的主要缺陷是，新增长模型的发展大多建立在概念不甚清晰的基础之上。
同时，由于没有恰当地考虑到总需求在经济增长过程中的作用，供给导向的新增长模型仍然不能够有效地解释新的增长事实。
关键词：内生经济增长外生经济增长知识外部性总需求一、导言在过去的20年里，经济增长理论一直是经济学中研究活动最为密集的领域1。
对增长理论密集研究的结果甚至将宏观经济学的研究重心由对商业周期的短期波动的研究转到了长期经济增长。
这种趋势也体现在一些流行的、具有代表性的本科层次和研究生层次的宏观经济学教科书的内容编排上。
直到20世纪90年代初，经济增长理论在教科书里所占据的仅仅是边缘位置，而如今却已占据了核心地位。
有些研究生层次的宏观经济学教科书甚至将三分之一的篇幅分配给经济增长理论，并且有多本专门的教科书集中讨论经济增长理论。
三个方面的因素促成了经济增长理论在宏观经济学领域中地位的上升。
首先，为什么一些国家富裕而一些国家贫穷？例如，在2000年，美国的人均GDP按1995年的不变价计算是32500美元，而生活水平在许多其他的国家却低得多：墨西哥是9000美元，中国是4000美元，印度是2500美元，而尼日利亚是1000美元，不到美国人均GDP的三十分之一2。
为什么一些国家在相当长的一段时间内增长得非常快而一些国家在非常长的一段时间内增长得非常缓慢？例如，OECD国家的人均年增长率由1820年到1900年的1.2个百分点上升到1900年到1990年的2.0个百分点；而非OECD国家的人均年增长率仅由1820年到1900年的0.4个百分点略微上升到1900年到1990年的0.6个百分点3。
公共支出与经济增长关系的实证研究_一个文献综述_金戈
公共支出与经济增长关系的实证研究_一个文献综述_金戈2009年第6期N o.6,2009浙江社会科学ZHEJIANG S OCI AL SCIENCES2009年6月Jun.,2009公共支出与经济增长关系的实证研究:一个文献综述*t金戈内容提要公共支出与经济增长的关系,不仅是一个重要的理论问题,更是一个关系到人类福利的重大政策实践问题。
从20世纪70年代开始至今,经济学家对公共支出与经济增长的关系进行了大量的实证研究。
本文对上述实证研究文献的研究方法、研究成果以及存在的各种争论进行了梳理和评述,并在此基础上指出了未来可能的研究方向。
关键词公共支出经济增长实证研究作者金戈,浙江财经学院财政与公共管理学院教师。
(杭州310018)一、引言从A rr ow and Kurz(1970)在新古典增长理论的框架里讨论公共支出与经济增长的关系开始,这一重要的理论问题备受研究者专注。
基于Ar-ro w-Kurz模型,Barro(1990)在内生经济增长理论的框架里研究公共支出与经济增长的关系。
在他的模型中,生产性公共支出通过提供公共基础设施来促进经济增长;而消费性公共支出通过提供消费性公共服务来增进消费者的效用,但降低经济增长的速度。
Barro(1990)的研究为分析公共支出与经济增长的关系提供了一个标准的理论框架。
此后,大量的理论文献从不同的角度对公共支出影响经济增长的机制进行了深入考察。
1公共支出能否促进经济增长,不仅是一个理论问题,更是一个与人类福利密切相关的重大现实问题。
世界经济发展史表明,1870年以来世界主要工业国家的公共支出规模(公共支出总量占GDP的比例)都史无前例地大幅扩张,与此同时,上述国家的人均GDP也平均增长了10倍以上。
基于上述观察,很多人都相信公共支出与经济增长之间确实存在着某种密切的联系。
自20世纪70年代以来,研究者对公共支出与经济增长的关系进行了大量的实证研究。
但是从Landau (1983,1986)和Ra m(1986)针锋相对地讨论消费性公共支出对经济增长究竟具有正效应还是负效应开始,到A schauer(1989)和Evans and K arras (1994)等人争论公共资本是否具有生产性,以及Agell et al1(1997,1999,2006)和Fo lster and H enr-ekson(1999,2001)为公共支出与经济增长之间是否具有稳健的统计关系展开了长达10年的争执,在这一领域中,人们至今尚未形成共识。
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RationalExpectationsEquilibriaintheOGModelwithProduction
RussellCooperOctober25,2006
1StochasticMoneyTransfersConsidertheoverlappinggenerationsmodelpresentedinclass.Thekeyaspectsdevelopedinothernotesare:
•agentsworkinyouthandconsumeinoldage•agentsareendowedwithaunitoftimeinyouthandatechnologywhichconvertslaborinputintooutput
•generationtpreferencesare:u(ct+1)−g(nt)whereu(·)isstrictlyincreasingandstrictlyconcaveandg(·)isstrictlyincreasingandstrictlyconvex
•populationisconstantandnormalizedat1•thepercapitamoneysupplyisaconstant¯M•timeisinfinite:t=1,2,.....•thereisauniqueinteriormonetarysteadystateatn∗whichsatisfiesu(n∗)=g(n∗).
•non-stationaryequilibriaaresolutionstothedifferenceequation:nt+1u(nt+1)=ntg(nt)(1)•theseareperfectforesightequilibriainthatthepriceswhichagentsexpecttoprevailinthefuturearetheactualequilibriumprices.
•moneyisneutralinthiseconomyinthatthesolutionsto(1)areindepen-dentofthefixedstockofmoney
Ourgoalnowistointroduceuncertaintythroughstochasticproportionalmone-tarytransfers.Inthiscase,thepercapitamoneysupplyfollowsMt+1=Mtxt+1
wherextisaniidrandomvariabledrawnfromaknowndistributionf(·).
Thesemoneytransfersareproportionaltomoneyholdingssothatgenerationtagentswhoworknunitsoftimehaveabudgetconstraintofct+1=ptnxt+1pt+1.
1Substitutingthisintotheirobjectivefunction,therepresentativegenerationtagentchoosesntomaximize:
E(xt+1,pt+1|st)u(ptnxt+1pt+1)−g(n)(2)wherestisavectorofvariablesthatareknowninperiodtandusedtoforecasttherandomvariables(xt+1,pt+1).1Thefirstorderconditionis:
E(xt+1,pt+1|st)ptxt+1pt+1u(ptnxt+1pt+1)=g(n).(3)Theleftsideisthemarginalgaintoworkingmore,whereptxt+1
pt+1
istherandom
returntoworkandtherightsideisthemarginalcostofadditionalwork.Akeyissuehereisformulatingtheexpectationsoffutureprices.Theexpec-tationofxt+1iseasysincethedistributionf(·)isassumedtobeknown.Butthedistributionofpt+1isdeterminedaspartoftheequilibrium.Asweshallsee,thisiskeytotheideaofarationalexpectationsequilibrium.Inaddition,toindividualoptimization,weneedtoformalizemarketclearing.Thisconditionisgivenby:Mt
pt
=nt.(4)
Theleftsideistherealdemandbytheoldinperiodtandtherightsideistheoutputofgenerationtworkers.Thisconditionformarketclearingholdsinallperiodsforallrealizationsofthemoneysupply.Theequilibriumconceptwestudyiscalledastationaryrationalexpecta-tionsequilibrium(SREE).Inthisequilibrium,agentswillforecastendogenousvariablesinamannerwhichisconsistentwiththeequilibrium.Thisismorethansayingpeopleforecastrationallysincethisisanequilibriumconcept.ASREEisapairofstationaryfunctionswhichcharacterizethelevelofemploymentandthepricelevelineachstate.Thatis:nt=n(st)andpt=p(st).Thetermstationaryisusedsincethesefunctionsdonotvarywithtimethoughthestatemaychangeduetotheshockstothemoneysupply.InordertobeaSREE,thepairnt=n(st)andpt=p(st)mustsatisfybothindividualoptimizationandmarketclearing.Thatis,whenagentsbelievethatpricesaregivenbypt=p(st)andusethisfunctiontoforecastfutureprices,theiroptimalbehaviorwillberepresentedbynt=n(st).2Further,thesetwofunctionsmustsatisfy(4).Notetheparallelwiththestationarydynamicprogrammingenvironment.Inthoseproblemswesearchforastationaryfunctionwhichsolvedthefunctionalequation.Herewearealsolookingforstationaryfunctions.
1Youhavesomeflexibilityinchoosingthestate.Examplesaregivenbelow.
2Intheprocess,wearelookingforsymmetricequilibriawithinagenerationsothateach
agent,optimizingindividually,choosesanemploymentdecisionrulewhichcorrespondstont=n(st).
2TogenerallycharacterizeaSREEwecanusethemarketclearingconditionofn(st)p(st)=Mtin(3)togetridofallthetermsinvolvingprices.ThisissimilartowhatwedidintheOGmodelwithproductionwithaconstantmoneysupply.So,therateofreturnonworkisptxt+1pt+1=n(st+1)n(st)andequilibriumconsumptionwhenoldisjustn(st+1).Somakingthesesubstitutionsintothegenerationtfirstorderconditionyieldsafunctionalequation:
E(st+1|st)n(st+1)u(n(st+1))=g(n(st))n(st).(5)Heretheunknownisthefunctionn(st).Anabstractexistenceproofwouldfocusonfindingafunctionn(st)solving(5).Toseetheneutralityofmoney,wearguethatthereexistsaSREEinwhichemploymentisindependentofthemoneysupply.Formally,weletthestatevectorbegivenbyst=(Mt−1,xt).3Withthisstatevector,theconditionalexpectationsin(5)areeasysincetheonlyunknownelementinst+1isxt+1andweknowthedistributionofthisrandomvariable.So,inequilibrium,wecanusethedistributionoftheexogenousvariabletoinducedistributionsfortheendogenousvariables.WethenconjectureaSREEandshowthatitsolvesindividualoptimizationandmarketclearing.Giventhatwewanttoevaluatetheconjectureofmoneyneutrality,itisnaturaltoguess: