IMF高级宏观经济学研修班课程CT1405MMF-L07Curren
全套教学课件《高级宏观经济学》-2024鲜版
货币财政政策协调配合
政策协调的必要性
政策协调的方式
货币政策和财政政策在宏观经济调控 中具有不同的作用机制和效果。为了 实现更好的政策效果，需要货币政策 和财政政策相互协调配合，形成政策 合力。
政策协调可以通过多种方式实现，如 政策目标的协调、政策工具的协调和 政策时机的协调等。同时，还需要加 强政策制定和执行过程中的沟通和协 作，确保政策的一致性和有效性。
金融市场结构
包括货币市场、资本市场 、外汇市场、衍生品市场 等，各市场之间相互联系 、相互影响。
金融机构
包括商业银行、证券公司 、保险公司、基金公司等 ，是金融市场的主要参与 者。
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金融风险防范与监管
2024/3/27
金融风险类型
包括信用风险、市场风险、流动性风险、操作风险等，需要针对 不同风险类型采取相应的防范措施。
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未来发展趋势预测
宏观经济学的实证研究方法将 进一步加强，大数据和人工智 能等新技术的应用将有助于更 准确地揭示宏观经济运行规律
。
气候变化、环境经济学等跨学 科领域将与宏观经济学更紧密 地结合，形成新的研究热点。
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全球化背景下的国际宏观经济 问题将持续受到关注，如国际 经济政策协调、全球金融市场 稳定等。
政策含义
菲利普斯曲线为政府制定宏观经济政策提供了重要依 据。在失业率较高时，政府可以采取扩张性财政政策 或货币政策来刺激总需求，降低失业率；而在通货膨 胀率较高时，政府可以采取紧缩性财政政策或货币政 策来抑制总需求，降低通货膨胀率。然而，需要注意 的是，长期内菲利普斯曲线可能不成立，因为预期通 货膨胀率的变化会影响实际工资和就业水平。
引入人力资本、技术进步、制度变迁等因素，对索洛模型进行
IMF高级宏观经济学研修班课程CT1405MMF-L07Curren共52页文档
.
.
40.1 17.0
40.1 17.0
13.3 8.5
52.4 70.7
6.1
1.2
36.1 23.5
36.1 23.5
5.4
4.6
48.0 68.3
9.3
4.6
38.9 25
38.9 25
3.8
2.1
Germany
Export Import
7.2 32.3
.
.
0.0
0.0
82.5 43.0
10.3 24.7
Source: BIS Quarterly Review: various issues.
8
Financial Asset Denomination
• The US dollar has lost its dominance. • The euro has become the dominant currency. • The pound sterling has lost its key currency
7.3 18.4
.
.
0.3
1.7
77.0 55.9
15.4 24.0
24.1 33.9
63.0 55.2
.
.
63.0 55.2
12.9 10.9
France
Export Import
20.3 37.1
.
.
0.1
0.7
60.5 37.1
19.1 25.1
16.5 23.1
.
.
• Objectives and benefits of currency internationalization
《高级宏观经济学》教学大纲(硕士研究生)-RonaldoCarpio
《高级宏观经济学》教学大纲（硕士研究生） - RonaldoCarpio《高级微观经济分析》教学大纲(博士研究生)课程代码:(按本专业或方向培养方案填写)课程名称:(按本专业或方向培养方案填写)英文名称:Advanced Microeconomic Analysis课程性质:(按本专业或方向培养方案填写)学分学时:3学分，48学时授课对象:金融学院一年级博士研究生课程简介:Based on Microeconomics I (for master students), the course will discuss thecontemporary development in microeconomics. This course is also designed to develop andextend the students’ analytical and reading skills in modern microeconomics. A student who haspassed the course should be able to read typical articles in the mainline journals, understand theanalytical derivations and arguments commonly used in the literature, and know how to solve themore widely used models.先修课程:Microeconomics for master students选用教材:1、 Mas-Colell, A., M. D. Whinston, and J. Green, Microeconomic Theory. (MWG)2、 Jehle, Geoffrey A. and Philip J. Reny, Advanced Microeconomic Theory. (JR)考核方式与成绩评定:Final Exam %; Midterm Exam %; Class Participation % 主讲教师:Carpio Ronaldo、颜建晔所属院系:金融学院联系方式:******************、*******************答疑时间及地点:求索楼123,Wednesday 13:30-14:30 (Carpio)，Tuesday 15:00-17:00(颜)第一章:Consumer Theory教学目标和要求:Understand the consumer’s problem and consumer demand.教学时数:6学时教学方式:讲授准备知识:calculus教学内容:Preferences, Utility, and Consumer’s Problem第一节:Consumer’s Problem第二节:Indirect Utility, Demand作业与思考题:JR Ch 1.6参考资料:JR Ch 1, Appendix A1, A21第二章: Topics in Consumer Theory教学目标和要求:Understand duality, integrability, and uncertainty.教学时数:6 学时教学方式:讲授准备知识:statistics教学内容:Duality, Integrability, and Uncertainty 第一节:Duality of Consumer’s Problem第二节:Revealed Preferences & Uncertainty 作业与思考题:JR Ch 2.5 参考资料:JR Ch 2第三章: Theory of the Firm教学目标和要求:Understand the firm’s profit maximization problem.教学时数:6 学时教学方式:讲授准备知识:Chapter 1,2教学内容:Production, Cost, Profit Maximization 第一节:Production Functions & Cost第二节:Duality in Production, Competitive Firms 作业与思考题:JR Ch 3.6参考资料:JR Ch 3第四章: Partial Equilibrium教学目标和要求:Understand partial equilibrium markets. 教学时数:3学时教学方式:讲授准备知识:Chapter 3教学内容:Perfect & Imperfect Competition, Welfare 第一节:Competition 第二节:Equilibrium & Welfare作业与思考题:JR Ch 4.4参考资料:JR Ch 4第五章: Walras’/competitive equilibrium2教学目标和要求:competitive market economies from a Walrasian (general) equilibrium perspective.Let students understand “why the competitive market/equilibrium may work or fail?”教学时数:6学时方式:讲授教学准备知识:consumer theory, production theory教学内容:第一节:Walrasian economy and mathematical language of microeconomics 第二节:competitive equilibria of pure exchange and with production 作业与思考题:JR5.5, exercises of MWG Ch15, 18, 教师自编习题集参考资料:MWG Mathematical Appendix, Ch15, 18; JR5.4第六章: Social choice function/theory and social welfare: normative aspect of microeconomics教学目标和要求:When we judge some situation, such as a market equilibrium, as “good”or “bad”, or “better” or “worse” than another, we necessarily make at least implicit appeal to some underlying ethical standard. Welfare economics helps to inform the debate on social issues by forcingus to confront the ethical premises underlying our arguments as well as helping us to seetheir logical implications.Let students have a systematic framework for thinking about normative and social welfare topics.教学时数:3学时教学方式:讲授准备知识:Walrasian equilibrium教学内容:第一节:social choice, comparability, and some possibilities第二节:Rawlsian, Utiliterian, and flexible forms作业与思考题:JR6.5, exercises of MWG Ch21, 22, 教师自编习题集参考资料:MWG Ch21.A, Ch21.E, Ch22.C; JR Ch6第七章: Strategic Behavior and Asymmetric Information教学目标和要求:A central feature of contemporary microeconomicsafter Walrasian economy is the multi-agent interaction which represents the potential for the presence of strategicinterdependence. Let students grasp classic models of imperfect competition under symmetric and asymmetric information.3教学时数:3学时教学方式:讲授准备知识:perfect competition教学内容:第一节:monopoly and oligopoly under symmetric information第二节:oligopoly under asymmetric information作业与思考题:教师自编习题集参考资料:MWG Ch12; JR Ch4第八章: Theory of Incentives教学目标和要求:The strategic opportunities that arise in the presence of asymmetricinformation typically lead to inefficient market outcomes, a form of market failure. Underasymmetric information, the first welfare theorem no longer holds generally. Thus, the main themeto be explored is to stimulate different agents’ optimal/efficient behaviors in differentinformational settings to achieve the “second-best” market outcomes.教学时数:9学时教学方式:讲授准备知识:Strategic Behavior and Asymmetric Information教学内容:第一节:Adverse selection第二节:Moral hazard*第三节:Task separation/integration,第三节:Career concern作业与思考题:exercises of MWG Ch13, 14, 教师自编习题集参考资料:JR Ch8; MWG Ch13, 14第九章前沿研究讲座:待定邀请校外老师(待定)给学生们讲演最新研究，引导学生讨论;在学生掌握现代微观经济学基本模型之后能够接触到前沿研究。
高级宏观经济学完整教学课件
金融市场的不稳定性对宏观经济波动的影响日益显著，未来研究将 更加注重金融市场与宏观经济的关联性分析。
人工智能与宏观经济决策
随着人工智能技术的快速发展，未来研究将更加注重将人工智能技 术应用于宏观经济决策中，提高决策的科学性和准确性。
THANKS
感谢观看
经济增长理论
经济增长的源泉
包括资本积累、劳动力增加、技术进步等。
经济增长模型
如索洛模型、拉姆齐模型等，用于分析经济 增长的动态过程。
经济增长的差异与收敛
不同国家和地区之间的经济增长存在差异， 但长期来看可能存在收敛趋势。
可持续增长与绿色发展
强调在经济增长的同时，注重环境保护和资 源节约，实现可持续发展。
阐述消费者行为和企业决策如何构成宏观经济分 析的基础。
市场均衡与价格水平决定
市场类型与均衡分析
介绍不同类型市场（完全竞争、垄断、寡头 等）的均衡条件及价格水平决定机制。
一般均衡理论
探讨在多个市场相互作用下实现一般均衡的 条件和过程。
价格水平调整与宏观经济波动
分析价格水平调整对宏观经济波动的影响及 传导机制。
介绍金融市场的类型、功能及运行机 制，包括货币市场、资本市场等。
货币政策工具与目标
货币政策传导机制
分析货币政策如何通过金融市场传导 至实体经济，以及影响货币政策效果 的因素。
阐述货币政策的目标、工具（如利率 、存款准备金率等）及其实施方式。
04
国际宏观经济学
国际贸易与汇率制度
01
02
03
04国际贸易理论货币政与财政政策货币政策工具
包括公开市场操作、存款准备金率、利率等 ，用于调节货币供应量和市场利率。
IMF高级宏观经济学研修班课程CT1405MMF-L02MonetaPPT精品文档64页
Joint China-IMF Training Program
Course on Macroeconomic Management and Financial Sector Issues CT 14.05
stability
3
The relationship between inflation and cyclical unemployment has changed over time
Apparent that the slope of Phillips curve has fallen
Source: April 2019 WEO
This training material is the property of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and is intended for use in
2
IMF’s Institute for Capacity development (ICD) courses. Any reuse requires the permission of ICD.
Presenter Ray Brooks
Outline
I. What are the ultimate goals of monetary policy?
II. What are the alternative frameworks and how do they work?
III. How to choose a monetary framework? IV. What choices were made in the past? V. How well did they perform? VI. China’s choices
IMF高级宏观经济学研修班课程CT1405MMFL02Moneta
3.13.
What can monetary policy do?
• Can effectively control prices and exchange rates – nominal variables
• Can serve as a nominal anchor in the economy • Can contribute to economic growth and help
I. What are the ultimate goals of monetary policy?
1.Price stability 2.Output and employment 3. Exchange rate stability 4. Post global crisis, calls to also target financial
III. How to choose a monetary framework? IV. What choices were made in the past? V. How well did they perform? VI. China’s choices
This training material is the property of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and is intended for use in IMF’s Institute for Capacity development (ICD) courses. Any reuse requires the permission of ICD.
exports and can lead to current account deficits. • A flexible ER might be a powerful tool to restore
IMF高级宏观经济学研修班课程CT1405MMF-L03Moneta
What Monetary Policy Can and Cannot Do
trap”–zero bound on nominal interest rates).
Central Bank may also be able to reduce volatility of business cycles
GDP
Time
What Monetary Policy Cannot Do: Lessons from the Phillips Curve
• Central banks cannot have any substantial effect on trend growth in output or trend growth in employment.
➢ policies by government that can have a material influence on both: education, human capital, technological innovations, taxation, protection of private property rights, etc.
• However, by keeping inflation low and stable, central banks can operate monetary policy with the objective of keeping actual output and employment as close as possible to the trend of potential output and employment.
高级宏观经济学第三版课程设计
高级宏观经济学第三版课程设计介绍宏观经济学是经济学的一个重要分支，研究整个经济体的总体现象，包括国民收入、生产和就业、通货膨胀、经济增长与稳定等问题。
本课程设计旨在通过介绍高级宏观经济学的基础知识和理论，让学生能够理解和分析全球经济现象，并对国际形势做出适当的预测和决策。
课程目标本课程的目标是让学生：1.掌握宏观经济学的基础理论和方法；2.能够熟练运用宏观经济学的相关知识，阐明经济现象、分析政策效果；3.熟悉国际形势，能够预测和分析全球经济现象；4.在宏观经济学领域进行创新和深入研究。
课程内容本课程包括以下内容：1.宏观经济学理论基础–经济增长理论–货币与银行理论–投资与储蓄理论2.宏观经济学政策分析–财政政策–货币政策–国际贸易政策3.全球经济形势分析–全球经济动态与趋势–国际经济组织和规则–全球化与发展的挑战考核方式课程考核将采用多种方式，包括：1.课堂讨论与参与2.小组研究报告3.期末论文教学评估本课程采用评价体系，以提高教学的质量和学生的学习效果。
课程评估将参考以下因素：•学生的参与度•作业和考试成绩•学生对课程的学习反馈参考文献•Mankiw, N. Gregory. Macroeconomics. Worth Publishers, 2017.•Blanchard, Olivier. Macroeconomics. Prentice Hall, 2017.•Bernanke, Ben S., et al. Macroeconomics. McGraw-Hill Education, 2017.结语高级宏观经济学是一门综合性强、理论基础深厚、技能要求高的学科。
希望通过本课程的学习，能够掌握宏观经济学的基础理论和方法，熟悉国际形势，做到能够预测和分析全球经济现象，并在宏观经济学领域进行创新和深入研究。
若还有任何疑问，请随时与老师进行沟通交流。
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5
International Reserves (% of Total)
90
80
70
60
US Dollar
DM
50
FF
40
Euro
30
Pound
20
Yen
CHF
10
0
Source: IMF Annual Reports
6
Qualifications for International Reserves
➢ Large volume of trade and financial assets from the originating country;
➢ The issuer has the bargaining power to denominate trade in its currency;
➢ Well developed financial market with a large variety of risk-hedging instruments; breadth and liquidity;
➢ Medium of exchange; Unit of account; Store of value; Method of payment.
• For an operational definition, it may be useful to identify qualifications for an international currency.
• Size of GDP
➢ The U.S dollar is dominant ➢ Euro quickly became the second key currency
• Stability of value
➢ The prospect of the economy ➢ Euro vs. Yen
➢ The degree of a currency’s actual usage is the most critical criterion:
▪ Its share in the denomination of international trade and financial assets;
▪ Foreign holdings of the currency as international reserves. ▪ By this standard, even Japanese yen is yet a fully fledged
0.0%
US dollar Euro Pound sterling Yen Australian dollar Swedish krona Canadian dollar Singapore dollar
➢ Capital account convertibility; no restrictions on currency trading, spot or forward;
➢ Little or no restrictions on foreigners’ access to domestic financial markets;
➢ IMF defines the term “convertible” as “freely usable for the settlements of international transactions”.
➢ Unless the currency is widely used in international transactions, it does not function as a global unit of exchange.
internationalization • Costs of currency internationalization • Evolution of an international currency • RMB Internationalization
2
Definition of Currency Internationalization
➢ Stability of value: long-run price stability (low inflation) and low exchange variability.
4
Capital Account Convertibility
• Capital account convertibility may be a precondition, but it does not automatically lead to currency internationalization (CI).
Currency Internationalization
CTP Training Program
Macroeconomic Management and Financial Sector Issues CT14.05
Presenter
Tao Wu
Content Outline
• Definition of currency internationalization • Objectives and benefiton of International Currency
• A national currency is regarded “internationalized” if it plays the role of money outside the country where it is issued.
• Financial development
➢ May not be so critical ➢ Euro vs. British pound
7
Financial Asset Denomination (Money Market, % of Total)
90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0%