2019年中期世界经济形势与展望(英文)
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While part of the growth slowdown reflects temporary factors, downside risks remain high. Prolonged trade disputes could have significant spillovers, including through weaker investment and the disruption of production networks. Recent monetary policy shifts have reduced short-term financial pressures, but may further fuel debt accumulation, increasing medium-term risks to financial stability. These persistent macroeconomic risks are compounded by greater frequency and intensity of natural disasters, reflecting the rising effects of climate change.
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Contents
Summary..............................................................................................................................................................................................................
World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2019
United Nations New York, 2019
i
World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2019*
The global growth outlook has weakened amid unresolved trade tensions and elevated international policy uncertainty. Across both developed and developing countries, growth projections for 2019 have been downgraded. Alongside a slowdown in international trade, business sentiments have deteriorated, casting a cloud on investment prospects. In response to softening economic activity and subdued inflationary pressures, major central banks have eased their monetary policy stances.
In the face of these multifaceted challenges, tackling the current growth slowdown and placing the world economy on a robust path towards the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development require more comprehensive and well- targeted policy responses. This should include a combination of monetary, fiscal and development-oriented measures. A coordinated, multilateral approach to global climate policy, including a price on carbon, is an important element of this policy mix. Increasing use of internal CO2 prices by the private sector indicates some willingness by firms to adapt to expected policy changes. The deterioration in growth prospects of many countries that are already lagging behind poses additional challenges for sustainable development, especially the goal to universally eradicate poverty by 2030. Future progress on poverty reduction will, to a significant extent, depend on the effective management of ongoing urbanization, particularly in Africa and South Asia.
Summary
* The present document updates World Economic Situation and Prospects 2019 (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.19.II.C.1), released in January 2019.
Fra Baidu bibliotek
iii
Contents
Summary..............................................................................................................................................................................................................
World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2019
United Nations New York, 2019
i
World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2019*
The global growth outlook has weakened amid unresolved trade tensions and elevated international policy uncertainty. Across both developed and developing countries, growth projections for 2019 have been downgraded. Alongside a slowdown in international trade, business sentiments have deteriorated, casting a cloud on investment prospects. In response to softening economic activity and subdued inflationary pressures, major central banks have eased their monetary policy stances.
In the face of these multifaceted challenges, tackling the current growth slowdown and placing the world economy on a robust path towards the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development require more comprehensive and well- targeted policy responses. This should include a combination of monetary, fiscal and development-oriented measures. A coordinated, multilateral approach to global climate policy, including a price on carbon, is an important element of this policy mix. Increasing use of internal CO2 prices by the private sector indicates some willingness by firms to adapt to expected policy changes. The deterioration in growth prospects of many countries that are already lagging behind poses additional challenges for sustainable development, especially the goal to universally eradicate poverty by 2030. Future progress on poverty reduction will, to a significant extent, depend on the effective management of ongoing urbanization, particularly in Africa and South Asia.
Summary
* The present document updates World Economic Situation and Prospects 2019 (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.19.II.C.1), released in January 2019.