产业资金流分析及对宏观经济调控的参考意义

Industry capital flow analysis and the reference value of themacro-economic controlAbstract: This paper will propose a new macro-economic analysis - industry capital flow analysis, and to introduce the analysis process of this method, and to do some simple example about the method used in macroeconomic regulation and control. Keywords: Industrial cash flow analysis, the macroeconomic regulation and controlIntroductionIn nature, there is a known ecological system called food chain, the core of which is the food. For example: Plant - Bug - Frog - Snake -Eagle, which is a food chain, In this food chain, the latter takes the former as food.If the peasant sprinkle pesticide to kill insect,insects will disappear, frogs, snakes, eagles will also disappear.Close contact with each other through food, which is the essence of the ecological balance of nature, while the value of the food chain is that it can help us understand the changes in one part of the other species.In our human being's economic activities, capital is its core, and our economic activities there is indeed such a high degree of relevance of the food chain, supply chain, which is what we call the industrial chain, such as: Real Estate -Iron & Steel -Iron Ore - Mining Equipment, industrial chain in this simple, real estate will directly bring about the steel demand, steel production will bring iron ore demand, while exploiting an iron ore may bring along the need exploiting mining equipment, Between them closely linked by the currency - commodity exchange. Financial activities as well as the activities of the currency movement will also be directly and quickly reflect on this chain of activities between the various links, including changes in the various production processes, various aspects of the impact of the size of the upstream and downstream industries. If combining the analysis of employment data and trade data, we will be a clear understanding the direct impact on employment of the industry chain, as well as the trade of impact on changes in the industry.A more accurate and timely macro-economic analysis: industry capital flow analysis, which is to bring you the contents of this article.At the same time, this article will demonstrate a preliminary application prospects of this method:to help decision makers can accurately predict the macro-economic policy effects of a more scientific economic policy, terms of trade changes in precise analysis of the economic impact on industry,accurately analyze the impact of exchange rate changes on industry,. This last, industry capital flow, the concept of IPR protection and the U.S. industrial policy will be put forward some suggestions for reference only!Chapter ⅠThe concept of industry capital flows and data acquisition Section 1 the definition of industry capital flowIndustry capital flow is defined as an economic body in commodity production or sale of behavior for another economy of direct relevance to the currency or commodity trading activities, generally expressed as a result of commodity production carried out for goods or services associated with raw materials buying behavior. Here's the currency or its equivalent in the currency in the amount of commodities, that is, industry capital flow.Industry capital flow, there are positive and negative cash flow of points, the inflow of capital is positive, capital outflow is negative.The positive and negative flow of Industry capital flow, to reflect the impact of an economic body of another associated with the relationship between economies, but also what we call the upstream and downstream industries.If an economy's activity will bring about another economy's currency income, the former, upstream of industry, the latter is downstream of industryThe concept of industry capital flow is relatively simply, this is no longer a more detailed elaboration.Section 2 Industry capital flow data acquisitionIn fact, this article in terms of concept, or the analysis method in practical applications are relatively simple, the greatest difficulty lies in how to obtain the capital flow data.At present, whatever country, do not offer any available data of capital flow for this method, however, in view of the important role of the analytical methods in economic activity and the more accurate characteristics relation to the availability of macro-economic analysis of the current method ,the establishment of industrial capital flow database have a very realistic and far-reaching significance. For the current problems in the economy, such as global economic imbalances, trade disputes and other problems, but also has a real and urgent demand.Banks, in fact is the only but also the most authoritative data providers.The current economic activities can be said that more than 99% of the transaction amount is done through banks, among which the amount of transactions through the business accounts of all transactions should be accounted for the amount of business for over 50% or more.Through the classification of enterprises (in fact, in most countries of the companies currently doing business category), we can easily get to a transactions activity data between some category of business to other types of business.There are two circumstances needed to take into account, one classification is that more detailed analysis, the results will be more precise, the other, we need to consider the privacy of corporate behavior. This is where the benefits of disaggregated data by category, we can understand our need for data, on the other hand, we get the data without revealing a specific privacy of the economic activities of enterprises.For further protection of corporate privacy practice, banks would be relevant data submitted to the central bank, announced by the central bank to further aggregate!Chapter IIIntroduced the industry capital flow analysis methodSection 1 A simple capital flow analysis of the industryIn order to facilitate the reader to understand, we cite the A Company is a real estate company, B Company for a cement company, the real estate development of A Company will generate demand for B cement companies.Now continue to assume that A Company has invested 1 billion in residential development goods in 2008, of which 100 million used to purchase the cement from the B Company, then we can say, the cash correlation of A business-to-B Companies is +10%,or 1 yuan per A production activities of enterprises will inevitably bring about B enterprise 0.1 yuan of commodity production activities; which, in turn, B increasing production companies will not necessarily to bring A business output, that is, business-to-A company B's cash correlation is -10% .Its formula can be expressed as:Cash correlation = B enterprise fund revenue÷| A Company total capital expenditure |Namely, +10% = +1 ÷ | -10 | × 100%Assuming that to produce each 1 million cement of B Company needed a worker, then A business-to-B enterprise human capital correlation is +10% ÷10000 = +0.001%.If we say 10,000 yuan / worker productivity for the company B, then A business-to-B enterprise human resource implications can be expressed with the formula as follows:Human capital correlation = (B enterprise fund revenue ÷| A Company total capital expenditure of |) ÷ B business labor productivityNote: where the above assumptions, A C ompany’s expenditure incurred to develop domestic product of all expenditures, including human resource costs, publicity expenses and all other operations expenses,while the revenue financing of B Company refers only to the capital inflow from A Company access to, but notincluding the B business sales to other businesses financial income.If we take A Company as the entire real estate industry, B enterprises look at the entire cement industry, then the +10% is the cash correlation of the real estate industry to the cement industry, and +0.001% is human capital correlation of the real estate industry to the cement industry.In my view, the Chinese government’s 9 trillion bailout program was able to be fast-onset, precisely because it has been invested in the industry with a wide range of relevance, and its human capital is also associated with a relatively high degree of industry, such as basic construction, real estate and so on!If we can get to the above data, then in the face of the media comments the Chinese government will be minimally so passively.Section 2 Industry Risk Prediction and AnalysisMarket economic activities are numerous and complex, to be truly comprehensive analysis of various industries, is almost impossible. But the shortcomings of the market economy require us to intervene in the market economy in some special cases. To intervene in the market economy, we must first accurately identify the problems, and then before introducing macroeconomic policies, predict the effectiveness of policies in the full forecasts, such a policy can be more effective intervention in a market economy.We are still using the data of the first section, and further assume that A Company investment 1 billion for residential in 2008, and an annual growth rate of 8% will be made,then we can accurately get that B speed its business investment should be eligibly growing at the rate of 8% in the future, over this speed will be overproduction, less than this rate will not be able to meet the market demand!For the macro-economic policy-makers, if over the investment rate 8%, B Company should be restricted to prevent the risk of overproduction in the cement industry, but less than 8% can be adjusted by the market!Although the danger of overproduction we can all realize, but we can not timelyaccess to production data, a timely manner to predict the risk of industry is still not impossible!For the monitoring of industry risk, industry capital flow data is particularly important!Although the 2008 economic crisis caused by a variety of factors,but governments can not be timely prediction and limiting investment in overheated industries act remains the root cause of economic crises!Further, if governments have the ability to detect anomalies in economic activities, economic crises, though can not claim to be completely avoided, but at least can be reduced to a minimum range of influence!Section 3 Introduces the risk forecast and analysis of consumers industryIn Section 2, we discussed the restrictive about A business-to-B production activities, but it is incomplete, because there is also overproduction A Company act!A Company is at the top level in the composition from A,B consisting of the industrial chain, it would direct to consumers. Therefore, the measure of whether the overproduction of A Company will no longer analyze by the flow of funds between enterprises,but should take A Company's sales revenue of the industry as its cash flow. From the bank point of view,the total capital inflows of the enterprise account can be taken as an industry fund flow data.And the total inflow of data brought by the residential commodity sales is considered more desirableA company's investment activities will certainly be changes in the same proportion of its sales revenue, and the difference between the two should be equal to, or should not exceed a limit, this limit is actually the line of A business risk control.Date of this section, we actually have established a complete industrial chain, which is: Consumer - A Company - B Company.Section 4 How to determine the industrial chain and what is the most important industry chainAs previously said, the market economic activities are numerous and complex, we can only control of key industries, which we need to filter out the greatest impact industry on our economy through the scientific method, and establish the industrial chain for the industry data!In fact to determine which industries are the most important is not difficult, just compare the total amount of its GDP will be able to be seen!Conclusions is also can be drawn by the comparison between industry capital flow analysis method of this text and the total of capital flows!After determining the good key industries, we can get a specific drawing of relationship between the industrial chain through investigating cash flow of the representative company, and then checkout the whole industry chain through the banking capital flow data, we can get industrial chain frame what we need!And then, you can base on the combination of chain framework and data to monitor and forecast policy effects of macroeconomic!Chapter IIIDeep-level application of the industry capital flow analysis Section 1 Benefit analysis of the activities of bank creditDespite banks activities occupy a unique and important role in today's economic, themselves have serious limitations: In the case of an overheated economy,the banks become much easy lending due to the favorable bias in the forecasts of economic; in the economic crisis, Bank decrease lending in order to reduce the risk of downgrade. We can say that every economic crisis, banks in fact played a role in fueling, it enlarge the economy but to accelerate its bubble burst!In turn, it shows that China's economy is unique, which lies in its banking system to minimize the risk of downgrade economic system!But more careful analysis, we can still find the common between China's banks and the foreign, because of the risk control preferences, in the economic crisis, banks has objectively accelerated the destruction of weak industries or small and medium enterprises.Through industrial funds flow analysis, we can easily find that industries having far-reaching impact on the employment and the industry chain became precarious or want to fall in the economic crisis, they are just the traditional industries, whose profit margins are generally lower but employment has been relatively large.It will play an effective and efficient impact on stimulating the economy if fiscal and monetary policies can support credit targeted when you encounter the economic crisis time.The General Motors of United States, China's textile industry, are representative of such incidents.The Sanlu incident on the impact of dairy farmers, if not the event itself caused by the special nature that government departments attach great importance, I believe China's dairy products will be distressed because of the shortage of raw materials had!This time part of the funds of the Chinese government’s 9 trillion bailout program flowing into the stock market caused by speculation, I think that in the present circumstances, it is reasonable and understandable, because a pot of porridge you can not ask it does not have a little sand.But if we could find out relatively weak link in the industry chain through the accurate analysis of specific industries, and then introduced a targeted bank credit guide policy, and perhaps it would be better a little bar.Capital are more flowing to industries who own adequate funds, in addition to downgrading policies and wasting the financial resources, the excess part of the investment of funds caused by overheating and possible speculative activities, the economic crisis especially dangerous!Section 2 Industry risk prediction under the terms of tradeAs trade widespread present in the economic activities, it is suggested that thispart as the first chapter will be more reasonable, but I feel that the contents of the first chapter thorough enough, the terms of trade is only the extension of the scope of application, and industry capital flow analysis, there are the scarcity of human capital-flow resources conditions, a floating exchange rate conditions, the credit crunch conditions, a variety of applications, it still insists on this section, hope you will understand what I practice!Under the terms of trade, assuming that A Company of the first chapter has increased its cement importers engaged in the cement company to purchase C-channels, due to the import of cement and cement industries will inevitably lead to downgrading of employment, out of the job market protection, we need to build a virtual trading account match B-level enterprise-class, which has no downstream industry chain, and whose human capital correlation coefficient is 0.The host country where B Company is located in, the best trading environment is that even in the presence of C Company, B Company continues to maintain a certain level of production, better terms of trade is the B Company continued positive growth.The harsh terms of trade is the production of B Company shrink or even stop production, cash flow reflected in sustained reductions in the amount or even 0!I support the competitive advantage of trade theory,which is the best channel for allocating economic resources efficiently. However, when changes in the terms of trade led to the rapid decline in the number of jobs within a short time, and directly threaten the market reallocation of resources under the condition of the feature, then the trade is extremely dangerous.How is it reasonable terms of trade?My suggestion is that in a certain period of time such as 10 years if the job losing in the country of the B Company within the scope of the highest unemployment rate, then the terms of trade is reasonable.Within a certain period of time a country's highest unemployment rate in the country in this time period, are the characteristics of the market economy system, that is, even if C Company led to the bankruptcy of B Company, if the unemployment rate in the industry in a certain range, we can still considered to be the country'ssystematic risk, not part of C Company led to the terms of trade caused by the change.Of course, import goods of C Company also should be consistent with the principles of fair trade, which is not made under an unfair trade advantage of non-market conditions.In this paper, here, actually made a trade arbitration proposal that trade arbitration body should be supported under which circumstances of the trade competitiveness!Section 3 Industrial risk prediction under the conditions of exchange rate changes ofIt is generally believed that exchange rate movements can bring changes in the terms of trade, but this is a simple conclusion from the trading price comparison.In fact, the exchange rate movements in addition to the effects of commodity trade prices, the impact on the industry chain of funding is particularly important!Of currency devaluation as an example,assume that A's export trade business enterprises, B enterprises supply foreign raw materials, under normal circumstances, A business own a million cash, of which 6 million needed to purchase raw materials. If the host countries of A Company devalued their currencies 20% to stimulate exports ,then A must pay 8 million to purchase raw materials, that will increase by 20% of the raw material purchasing expenditures, while the A corporate export prices did not rise, thus resulting in decreased profitability and short-term funding constraints, which led to operational difficulties of business!During the Asian financial crisis, South Korea to take the consequences of the devaluation of the won also proved the existence of such a situation!Therefore, if the Government's decision to devalue the national currency, we must take measures to protect its own economic impact of a large industry, based on the results of the industry cash flow analysis, then the government needs to inject in the industry, the industry increased spending on foreign trade balance in order to prevent the short-term operating difficulties of the industry!Enabling more precise policy is: For the export-based economy, funds should beinjected into the trade industries of the country which has a competitive advantage , industries without trade competitive advantage in this currency devaluation will be the gradual decline or even die; for large-scale integrated economies, should also take into account non-trade competitive advantage in an integrated industry associated with the bankruptcy of other industry factors affecting the cost of raw materials, as well as the unemployment rate caused by the impact of bankruptcy.A better proposal is that the Government should be gradual currency devaluation.The main effect of currency appreciation funds is considered from the industry chains, in fact foreign importers are the greatest short-term impacts. Then the Government can take to respond to the measures to help foreign importers to import their own products, long-term impact ultimately reflected in the prices competitiveness of traded goods.In contrast, the systemic risk caused by currency appreciation relative to the currency devaluation is much smaller!Chapter IVOther policy proposals based on the industry capital flowSection 1 In the film entertainment and IT software, the Sino-US cooperation in IPR protection should be treated differentlyThe United States has hoped that China in protecting intellectual property rights has a more positive development, but the United States should understand China's difficulties, especially in the IT software. China's IT industry is still very weak, but the IT industry in recent years, China has achieved rapid development, its impact in employment can not be ignored.However, if in full accordance with the U.S. IT purchase pirated software, then there will be a conservative estimate of more than 30% of the IT enterprises in bankruptcy, and significantly improve IT industry, the threshold of entry. If the United States has no intention to understand the particularityof China's economy but to exert pressure on the Chinese Government, This is in part a State monopoly in the market of another country's economy racketeering acts of banditry, not mature and mutually beneficial trade practices of countries. Therefore, either the United States to reach an understanding on China's piracy, or IT software of the United States needs to develop the corresponding pricing for the Chinese market strategies. This is not the Government's will, but the reality of China's economy demands that the U.S. government must face.But for Television and Entertainment Licensing copyright, intellectual property protection in China can not be too worried.First Entertainment is not necessary to produce elements of production activities,while intellectual property protection in China and healthy development of film and television entertainment industry will play a positive role in promoting. More importantly, for the United States, television and entertainment in relation to IT software, film and television entertainment value higher, the wider industry chain, while the IT software, in most cases is not even the upstream and downstream industries.Section 2 The United States should re-formulate the industrial policy in line with national conditionsAfter the failure of Plaza Accord, the United States should be comprehensive and profound thought their own deep-rooted problems of industrial policies, rather than the country's economic problems should be simple to blame Japan or China, which is both unfair, and it is not really solve the problem.On the one hand, the U.S. economy is highly concentrated in services and high-tech, high salary levels greatly enhances America's labor costs, which is bound to impact the traditional low-wage industries, leading to the gradual disappearance of traditional industries.On the other hand, take banking services as its representative, to produce many high-risk financial speculation in the industry, these industries is extremely easy to form when the economy overheated investment bubble, and easily lead to funds in themarket economy are unevenly distributed. More importantly, these financial services industry and it can not produce for export of goods, once the bubble burst, we also extremely difficult to return to normal.The views of reference are:1, Part of the traditional industries which can vigorously support jobs will be created greatly;2, Continue to strengthen support for film and television entertainment;3, Introduction of alien workers in order to help the cost of labor resources degraded;4, To strengthen supervision of financial services, strictly control excessive investment in the financial services industry;5, Further strengthen trade relations between emerging economies and strengthen high-tech product exports.The above points are made against the characteristics of the U.S. economy, if the method according to the present situation with the U.S. economy itself to develop a broader, more scientific, more targeted industrial promotion policy, when the American people should celebrate the true , the train has finally returned to the United States in its own right on track.Nevertheless, in the foreseeable 3-5 years, the U.S. financial sector will remain stagnant.Chapter VConclusionGratitude for his on industrial capital flows, because read the range of limitation, I have yet to see the same concepts proposed by other authors, and industrial economics, I will be a little understanding.If you have the same views with this article, feel free to tell me so because I lack the erudition to reduce the error generated, if the wrong country misleading the people, the more sinful that I had!The reason for concerning about industry analysis begins with graduation I madean article on the impact of exchange rate on industry, at that time because the industry cash flow analysis method is still relatively obscure,but no conclusions can be used to support the data and the final paper has not been written.Since this article does not analyze the actual data as the basis for the biggest shortcoming of this article, but the article mentioned methods of analysis is relatively simple and can be clearly made it clear that the use of industry cash flow method, I think it has reached to achieve the purpose of this article. If there is doubt or do not understand where I can contact, welcome instruction!With regard to industry cash flow analysis, other applications, there are follow-up article, interested friends like him to focus my blog.End, the article attached to this page is the process of writing some of the references.Zhang HuijunMail:Blog: /posts/zhanghuijun2009/9/14Insert References"Industrial economics" - Yang Jianwen editor, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences Publishing HouseBaidu Wikipedia food chain Glossary - /63350.htmBaidu Wikipedia Plaza Accord Glossary - /67984.htm"Entertainment economy" (U.S.) Wolf book。