德国银行买方分析-PPT精选文档12页

20.0% 4.0%
0.0%
3.0%
PBO
Plan Assets
Source: DB, Company reports, FactSet
Funding Position
Funding Level
Return
Compensation Increase Rate Discount Rate
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
burden of OPEB liabilities Benefit pay outs are growing and have a significant impact on plan asset levels
– bleed rate have been a significant offset to recent asset returns and employer contributions
$79,617 919
5,162 22
2,244 5,684 (6,501)
– 138
$87,285
$12,129 228 803 23 – 222 (732)
2,398 17
$15,088
$91,746 1,147 5,965 45 2,244 5,906 (7,233) 2,398 155
$102,373
Underlying growth in pension benefit liabilities has been approximately 4.25%, before consideration for changes in discount rates
Funded positions have very likely deteriorated in 2019
35% 32%
105%
30% 25% 20% 15% 10%
5% 0%
25% 24%
25%
20% 20%
15% 14%
100% 95% 90% 85%
8%
5%
5% 6%
80% 75% 70%
Less than 70%
70% < 80%
80% < 90%
90% < 100% < Greater 100% 110% than
OPEB
$57,195 537
3,798 84 –
9,026 (3,621)
– 523 $67,542
Com bined
$148,941 1,684 9,763 129 2,244
14,932 (10,854)
2,398 678
$169,915
$60,498 13,452 18,621 22 (6,501) – 77
(1) US plans only
Pension & OPEB
Bridge analysis Funded status 2002 Service cost Interest cost A m e n d m e n ts A c tu a ria l Actual return Em ployer contributions Exchange rate O th e r Funded Status 2003 Chang in Funded Status Benefit pay out % of plan assets % of PBO
Average S&P 500 pension plan (cont’d)
Aggregate pension funding improved moderately in 2019 to approximately 87% from 82% in 2019
– Under funded plans improved to 82% from 78%
$103,727
61.0%
GM – Case Study (cont’d)
Asset returns and employer contributions on pension plans totaled $33.2bn yet the under funded status was only reduced by $18.0bn
($73,974)
($150,000) ($200,000) ($250,000)
($170,089)
($214,620)
($191,604)
($227,718)
2001
2002
2003
Aggr e gate
Under Funded
Source: DB, Company reports, FactSet
110%
65%
2002 2003
100.9%
86.9%
81.5% 77.8%
87.0% 82.2%
2001
2002
2003
Aggregate Under Funded
in $mm
GM – Case Study
GM’s US pension plans were fully funded following its $18.6bn debt financed funding
(1,217) (17)
$(7,528) $1,372 $(732)
-9.7% -4.9%
$(25,274) (1,147) (5,965) (2,244) (5,906) 14,155 19,063 (1,217) (78)
Lower discount rates and higher benefit pay outs eroded a significant portion of the gains
High benefit pay outs, strong labor unions and rising benefit costs, in a market environment that is producing limited returns, will very likely take their toll on equity valuations for companies like GM over the longer term
$86,169
98.7%ຫໍສະໝຸດ $5,943 703 442 23 (732)
1,181 –
$7,560
50.1%
$66,441 14,155 19,063 45 (7,233) 1,181 77
$93,729
91.6%
$5,794 865
3,339 – – – –
$9,998
14.8%
$72,235 15,020 22,402 45 (7,233) 1,181 77
Non-US US plans plans
Total plans
OPEB Com bined
$(19,118) (919)
(5,162) (2,244) (5,684) 13,452 18,621
– (61)
$(1,116) $(18,002)
$(6,501) -7.5% -7.4%
$(6,156) (228) (803) – (222) 703 442
Session 39 The “Buy side” Perspective – An Analyst’s View of Financial Disclosure
Wayde Bendus, Vice President, Deutsche Bank
Why are pensions still a relevant concern for the street?
Pension liabilities increased due to accumulation of new benefits and lower discount rates
Average PBO and FVA for the S&P 500
Average Funding for the S&P 500
$800
140.0% 10.0%
Average Assumption Used for the S&P 500
$600 $400 $200
$0 ($200) ($400) ($600) ($800)
120.0% 9.0%
100.0% 8.0%
80.0% 7.0%
60.0% 6.0%
40.0% 5.0%
Plan assets Beg FVA Actual return Em ployer contributions Participant contributions Benefits paid Exchange rate O ther End FVA
Funded level at 2003
US plans Non-US plans Total plans
Non-US plans were under funded by $7.5bn
OPEBs represented a very large liability and grew by over $20.9bn in 2019
Pension & OPEB
Pension and OPEB liabilities Beg PBO Service cost Interest cost Participant contributions Am endm ents Actuarial losses Benefits paid Exchange rate O ther End PBO