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Fake drugsPoison pillsCounterfeit drugs used to be a problem for poor countries. Now they threaten the rich world, tooSep 2nd 2010 | NEW YORKDRUG smugglers can expect harsh penalties nearly everywhere—if the drugs in question are heroin or cocaine. Those who smuggle counterfeit medicines, by contrast, have often faced lax enforcement and light punishment. Some governments deem drug-counterfeiting a trivial offence, little more than a common irritant. After all, whose spam filter does not groan with ads for suspiciously cheap “Viagra”?This could be changing, however. The pharmaceutical industry has persuaded several governments to stiffen regulations against fake drugs and to conduct more aggressive raids (see chart). Companies are also devising novel technologies to outfox the criminals. Even the Catholic church is joining the cause, issuing a stern statement in August that it is in “the best interest ofall concerned that smuggling of counterfeit drugs be fought against”.The pope’s concern is justified. Counterfeit drugs can kill. Many are shoddily made, containing the wrong dose of the active ingredient. Taking them instead of the real thing can turn a treatable disease into a fatal one. It can also foster drug resistance among germs. This has been a big problem for a long time in developing countries. Studies of anti-infective treatments in Africa and South-East Asia have found that perhaps 15-30% are fakes. The UN estimates that roughly halfof the anti-malarial drugs sold in Africa—worth some $438m a year—are counterfeits.Roger Bate of the American Enterprise Institute, a think-tank in Washington, DC, cautions that any such estimates should be treated with care. The countries with the most fakes may not be cracking down, so official figures will look rosy; in contrast, countries with a smaller counterfeittrade that are vigilant may end up with more seizures. The World Health Organisation agrees,and has recently taken its estimates off its website. Even so, Mr Bate says his field work has convinced him that counterfeits kill at least 100,000 people a year, mostly in the poor world.Now it appears that fakes are taking off in the rich world too. Yes, Viagra still tops the list of knock-offs seen by Pfizer, says John Clark, the American drug firm’s global head of security; but fake versions of at least 20 of its products (including Lipitor, a blockbuster cholesterol drug) have been detected in the legitimate supply chains of at least 44 countries. Mr Clark’s intelligence comes from Pfizer’s global network of informants, consumer tip-offs and in-store inspections. He sees worrying trends.Counterfeiters used to operate chiefly in developing countries, says Mr Clark, but now his firm sees fakes coming from such rich and well-regulated places as Canada and Britain. And the crooks are growing more technologically sophisticated: some can even counterfeit the holograms on packets that are meant to reassure customers that pills are genuine.A consumer study funded by Pfizer recently found that nearly a fifth of Europeans polled in 14 countries had obtained medicines through illicit channels. That, the firm reckons, makes for a grey market in the EU of over €10 billion ($12.8 billion). Terry Hisey of Deloitte, a consultancy, thinks the global market for fakes could be worth between $75 billion and $200 billion a year. Those staggering sums, he argues, help explain the emergence of a flurry of new technologies and companies hoping to help the drugs industry “secure its global supply chain”.In July Oracle, an American software giant, unveiled Pedigree, a programme that helps drugs firms “track and trace” pills all the way from the factory to your fingers. IBM has a rival offering, as well as one using radio-frequency identification (RfID) chips, which are embedded in packaging to detect tampering and allow precise tracking. 3M, a materials company, and Abbott Laboratories, an American medical firm, are also rolling out an RfID-based product. A division of Johnson & Johnson, a drugs giant, has developed web-based software to help customs officials quickly verify whether drugs are fake or real.Poor countries find it hard to take advantage of such technologies. Sophisticated radio tags and database software are not much use in places where street hawkers peddle fakes with impunity. Still, even in such difficult circumstances, a combination of political will and business ingenuity can make a difference.Bottom-up battleA Ghanaian start-up firm, mPedigree, has come up with a clever way to use mobile phones in this fight. Participating drugs companies emboss a special code onto packages, which customers find by scratching off a coating. By sending a free text with that code, they can find out instantly ifthe package is genuine or a fake.Bright Simons, the firm’s boss, argues that technologies like his can be a useful bottom-up complement to top-down enforcement. Having successfully completed initial trials, he says, mPedigree is ready to expand its service in the region. The government of Nigeria, where fakery is rife, recently declared its intention to adopt such a text-based validation system.Thomas Kubic of the Pharmaceutical Security Institute, an industry-funded outfit, gives warning that this war will be hard to win. After more than 30 years as an investigator, he is sure that crooks will eventually find a way around any defence.Even so, he thinks novel approaches such as mobile-based validation may “harden the target”, just as a burglar alarm makes your home somewhat trickier to rob. If the cost and complexity of faking drugs goes up, crooks may choose to fake Gucci handbags instead. This would still be theft, not to mention a crime against fashion. But it will not kill anyone.BusinessAbout The Economist online About The Economist Media directory Staff books Career opportunities Contact us Subscribe[+] Site feedbackCopyright © The Economist Newspaper Limited 2010. All rights reserved.Advertising info Legal disclaimer Accessibility Privacy policy Terms & Conditions Help。