ICM论文-Finding Conspirators in the Network
数学建模论文中文版2
Identification of conspirator list based on statistics weight and matrix Summery：We use two processes to develop mathematical models to predict the suspicious people to help the ICM to make better investigation strategies. We use mathematical models to estimate the criminal weight of all people and use statistical methods and text analysis to optimize the result of the mathematical models.Our result shows that the search scope can be significantly reduced to less than 20% of the original scope by using the statistics weight and matrix. Furthermore, if we consider the fact that there are many more factors can restrict models, particularly when the amount of database is large, it’s obvious that the actual search scope is far less than 20%.We also make use of text analysis to improve the model to predict the suspicious people more accurately. When we combine the model with text analysis method, we not only have a more accurate prediction but also can get a conclusion that the larger the database is the more accurate the model is. Because with the database becoming larger, the key words database becoming larger, too. And the text analysis become more meaningful .So the ICM can make more efficient strategies to the investigation.We develop a models based on the different principles and assumptions to study if there are some statistical pattern within the distribution of the suspicious people. Though we find that it`s difficult to predict the suspicious people precisely, the mathematical method can be reliable to predict the likely people and even can reveal some critical information, such as the topic`s weight, key words. So the method can be used only when the scope of a database is abundant.We finally consider that assumptions of the models can change with certain condition. The more detailed the assumptions are ,the predictions of the suspicious people is more accurate , however, reliability still need to be tested. So the ICM need to carry deep investigation.面对隐藏于众多普通人之中的少数犯罪分子，根据已知的情报信息采用一种科学的数学模型对整个团队进行文本数据分析、犯罪嫌疑权重计算将所有人的嫌疑权重进行排序从而为进一步调查案件作参考。
机会在于新观察的英语作文
Opportunities often arise from new observations.In the realm of science,for instance,many groundbreaking discoveries have been made by observing phenomena that were previously overlooked or misunderstood.A keen eye for detail and the ability to question the status quo can lead to significant advancements in our understanding of the world.One classic example is the story of Sir Isaac Newton,who,according to legend,was inspired to formulate his law of universal gravitation after observing an apple falling from a tree.While the anecdote may be simplified,it illustrates the principle that everyday observations can spark profound insights.In the medical field,the discovery of penicillin by Alexander Fleming was a result of his observation of mold growing on a petri dish.Fleming noticed that the mold had antibacterial properties,which led to the development of the first antibiotic.This chance observation revolutionized medicine and saved countless lives.Innovation in technology is also often born from new observations.For example,the invention of the World Wide Web by Tim BernersLee was a result of his observation that information sharing could be vastly improved with a more interconnected system.His vision for a global information space led to the creation of the internet as we know it today.Observations can also lead to social and cultural changes.The civil rights movement in the United States was fueled by the observation of systemic racial inequality.Activists like Martin Luther King ed these observations to mobilize change and advocate for equal rights for all citizens.In business,new observations can lead to the creation of innovative products and services. For instance,the observation that people wanted a more personal way to connect with friends and family online led to the development of social media platforms like Facebook.To maximize the opportunities that arise from new observations,it is important to cultivate a curious mindset.This involves being open to new experiences,asking questions,and not being afraid to challenge established ideas.Additionally,it is beneficial to develop skills in critical thinking and problemsolving to better analyze and act upon these observations.In conclusion,opportunities are often hidden in plain sight,waiting to be discovered through keen observation.Whether in science,medicine,technology,social issues,or business,the power of observation has the potential to drive progress and bring aboutpositive change.By staying alert and curious,we can unlock these opportunities and contribute to the advancement of our society.。
海洋的探索重要性英语作文
海洋的探索重要性英语作文The exploration of the ocean is of utmost importancefor a variety of reasons. From its vast biodiversity to its potential for resources and its impact on the global climate, the ocean plays a crucial role in the functioningof our planet. In this essay, I will discuss thesignificance of ocean exploration from multiple perspectives, including scientific, environmental, economic, and cultural.From a scientific perspective, the ocean is a treasure trove of knowledge waiting to be uncovered. With over 80%of the ocean still unexplored, there is much we have yet to discover about its depths. The unique ecosystems andspecies that inhabit the ocean provide valuable insightsinto the evolution of life on Earth. By studying these organisms, scientists can gain a better understanding of biological processes and develop new technologies and medicines. Furthermore, ocean exploration can also shedlight on the geological and physical processes that shapethe Earth, helping us to better understand natural disasters such as earthquakes and tsunamis.In addition to its scientific significance, the ocean also plays a critical role in regulating the Earth's climate. The ocean absorbs and stores vast amounts of carbon dioxide, helping to mitigate the effects of climate change. Furthermore, the ocean's currents and temperature patterns influence weather patterns and global climate systems. By studying the ocean, scientists can gain abetter understanding of these complex processes and improve their ability to predict and respond to climate-related events.Furthermore, the ocean is a vital source of resources that are essential for human survival. From food to energy and minerals, the ocean provides a wide range of valuable resources that support human livelihoods. For example, over 3 billion people rely on the ocean as their primary source of protein, making sustainable ocean management crucial for global food security. Additionally, the ocean has the potential to provide renewable energy through sources suchas wave and tidal power. By exploring the ocean, we can better understand how to sustainably manage and utilize these resources to meet the needs of current and future generations.From an environmental perspective, the ocean is facing unprecedented challenges due to human activities. Pollution, overfishing, and habitat destruction are threatening the health of the ocean and its inhabitants. By exploring the ocean, scientists can better understand the impacts ofthese activities and develop strategies to mitigate them. Furthermore, ocean exploration can help identify andprotect critical marine habitats and species, contributingto the conservation of biodiversity and the preservation of the ocean's ecological balance.Finally, the ocean holds immense cultural and recreational significance for people around the world. From providing a source of inspiration for art and literature to offering opportunities for recreation and tourism, theocean plays a central role in human culture and well-being. By exploring the ocean, we can gain a deeper appreciationfor its beauty and diversity, fostering a sense of stewardship and responsibility for its protection.In conclusion, the exploration of the ocean is of paramount importance for a variety of reasons. From its scientific and environmental significance to its role in supporting human livelihoods and culture, the ocean plays a crucial role in shaping the health and well-being of our planet. By investing in ocean exploration, we can gain valuable insights into the workings of the natural world and develop strategies to ensure the sustainable management and protection of this vital resource.。
关于海洋勘探的建议作文英语
关于海洋勘探的建议作文英语英文回答：Marine exploration is a crucial endeavor that has the potential to unlock vast amounts of knowledge and resources for humanity. As a result, it is essential to invest in and adopt responsible practices for marine exploration.Scientific Research and Technological Advancements:Marine exploration enables scientists to study the biodiversity, geology, and physical properties of the ocean. This research can lead to breakthroughs in fields such as marine biology, oceanography, and earth sciences. It can also contribute to the development of new technologies for exploring and extracting resources from the ocean.Exploration for Resources:The ocean is a vast source of untapped resources,including minerals, energy reserves, and potential food supplies. Marine exploration can provide valuable information about the location and quantity of these resources, allowing us to sustainably exploit them for the benefit of society. However, it is essential to prioritize environmental conservation and mitigate potential negative impacts on marine ecosystems.Climate Change and Ocean Health:The ocean plays a vital role in regulating the Earth's climate and maintaining the health of the planet. Marine exploration can provide data that helps scientists understand climate change, ocean acidification, and other environmental threats. This knowledge can inform decision-making and develop strategies to mitigate these impacts.Economic Benefits:Marine exploration can stimulate economic growth and create new jobs in industries such as shipping, tourism, and biotechnology. It can also lead to the development ofnew products and services that rely on marine resources. However, it is important to ensure that economic activities are sustainable and do not compromise the long-term health of the ocean.Environmental Protection and Conservation:While marine exploration offers significant benefits,it is crucial to prioritize environmental protection and conservation. It is essential to minimize the ecological footprint of exploration activities, protect endangered species, and preserve marine habitats. This requires implementing strict environmental regulations, monitoring impacts, and adopting responsible practices.International Collaboration:Marine exploration is a global endeavor that requires collaboration between nations. By sharing data, resources, and expertise, countries can pool their efforts and advance the field of marine science. International agreements and treaties are essential to ensure that explorationactivities are conducted responsibly and sustainably.Public Awareness and Education:Raising public awareness about the importance of marine exploration is crucial for fostering support and understanding. Through education campaigns, outreach programs, and media engagement, we can inspire the next generation of marine scientists and promote responsible stewardship of the ocean.中文回答：海洋探索建议。
国家留学基金委英语观点性作文
国家留学基金委英语观点性作文In today's increasingly interconnected world, the significance of international education cannot be overstated. The experience of studying abroad offers students not only academic growth but also a unique opportunity to cultivate global citizenship and interpersonal skills. As globalization continues to shape our societies, understanding diverse cultures and perspectives has become paramount.Firstly, immersing oneself in a different educational environment fosters intellectual growth. Students are exposed to various teaching methods, curricula, and academic disciplines that differ significantly from their home institutions. This variety enhances critical thinking and promotes creativity, encouraging students to think outside traditional paradigms. Additionally, studying abroad often involves collaborative projects that require teamwork withpeers from different cultural backgrounds. Such experiences build adaptability, an essential skill in today’s job market.Moreover, international education promotes cultural understanding. When students live in a different country,they experience the local customs, languages, and traditions firsthand. This immersion deepens their appreciation for diversity and nurtures empathy. In a world often divided by cultural misunderstandings, fostering a sense of global community through educational experiences can bridge gaps and dismantle stereotypes.Furthermore, networking opportunities abound in international education. Students establish connections with peers, professors, and industry professionals from around the globe. These connections can lead to collaborations, internships, and job opportunities that would otherwise be inaccessible. The friendships formed during this time cantransform into a supportive global network, facilitating personal and professional growth long after graduation.In conclusion, the value of international education liesin its ability to prepare students for a rapidly changing world. As they develop academically, culturally, and socially, they emerge as well-rounded individuals capable of navigating the complexities of global citizenship. Embracing the challenges and opportunities of studying abroad is not just a personal journey; it is a step towards creating a more understanding and interconnected world.。
积极探索敏于观察的作文
积极探索敏于观察的作文英文回答：Exploring actively and being observant are two important qualities that can greatly benefit our lives. When we actively explore, we open ourselves up to new experiences, knowledge, and opportunities. It allows us to step out of our comfort zone and grow as individuals. Being observant, on the other hand, helps us to pay attention to the details and nuances of our surroundings, leading to a deeper understanding and appreciation of the world around us.Active exploration can take many forms, such as traveling to new places, trying out new activities, or seeking out new knowledge. By actively seeking out new experiences, we can broaden our horizons and gain a better understanding of different cultures, perspectives, and ways of life. This can lead to personal growth and a more well-rounded view of the world.Being observant, on the other hand, means paying attention to the small details that often go unnoticed. It involves using all of our senses to fully take in our surroundings, whether it's the sights, sounds, smells, or even the energy of a place. This level of observation can help us to better understand the people and environment around us, leading to more meaningful connections and interactions.In combination, active exploration and observance can lead to a more fulfilling and enriching life. By actively seeking out new experiences and being observant of theworld around us, we can gain a deeper understanding of ourselves and the world we live in.中文回答：积极探索和敏于观察是两种极为重要的品质，能够极大地影响我们的生活。
观察与思考 英语作文模板
观察与思考英语作文模板Title: Observing and Reflecting The Importance of Critical Thinking in English Writing。
Critical thinking is an essential skill that is often overlooked in the process of English writing. Many students focus solely on grammar and vocabulary, neglecting the importance of observing and reflecting on the world around them. In this article, we will explore the significance of critical thinking in English writing and provide some tips on how to develop this skill.Observation is the first step in critical thinking. It involves paying attention to the details of the world around us and being curious about how things work. When it comes to English writing, observation is crucial for developing interesting and engaging content. By observing the world around us, we can gather inspiration for our writing and develop a deeper understanding of the topics we want to explore.One way to improve our observation skills is to practice mindfulness. This involves being fully present in the moment and paying attention to our surroundings. By practicing mindfulness, we can train our minds to be more observant and attentive, which can greatly benefit our English writing.Another important aspect of critical thinking is reflection. After observing the world around us, it is essential to take the time to reflect on our observations and think critically about what we have seen. Reflection allows us to make connections between different ideas and concepts, which can lead to more insightful and thought-provoking writing.In English writing, reflection can be a powerful tool for developing strong arguments and persuasive content. By reflecting on our observations, we can gain a deeper understanding of the topics we want to write about and develop more nuanced and well-informed perspectives.To improve our reflection skills, it is important to set aside time for introspection and self-examination. This can involve journaling, meditation, or simply taking a few moments each day to think critically about the world around us. By making reflection a regular part of our routine, we can develop a more thoughtful and analytical approach to English writing.In addition to observation and reflection, critical thinking also involves questioning and challenging assumptions. In English writing, this can be particularly important for developing original and innovative content. By questioning the status quo and challenging conventional wisdom, we can develop fresh and unique perspectives that can captivate and engage our readers.To improve our questioning skills, it is important to cultivate a sense of curiosity and skepticism. This can involve asking probing questions, seeking out diverse perspectives, and being open to new ideas and viewpoints. By challenging assumptions and exploring alternative viewpoints, we can develop more compelling and persuasiveEnglish writing.In conclusion, critical thinking is an essential skill for English writing. By honing our observation, reflection, and questioning skills, we can develop more insightful and engaging content that captures the attention of our readers. By making critical thinking a regular part of our writing process, we can develop a more thoughtful and analytical approach to English writing that will set us apart asskilled and creative writers.。
英语作文对基因库的看法
英语作文对基因库的看法Genetic libraries are a crucial component in the field of genetics and biotechnology. These collections of genetic material, including DNA and RNA samples, play a vital role in advancing our understanding of the human genome and enabling groundbreaking research and applications. In this essay, I will explore the significance of genetic libraries, their potential benefits, and the ethical considerations surrounding their use.Genetic libraries serve as a repository of genetic information, providing researchers with a comprehensive and diverse collection of genetic material to study. These libraries can contain samples from a wide range of organisms, including humans, plants, animals, and microorganisms. By having access to this vast pool of genetic data, scientists can conduct in-depth analyses, identify patterns, and uncover the underlying mechanisms that govern the functioning of living organisms.One of the primary benefits of genetic libraries is their role in facilitating medical research and advancements. By studying thegenetic profiles of individuals, researchers can identify genetic markers associated with various diseases, paving the way for the development of personalized medicine and targeted treatments. This knowledge can lead to the early detection of genetic predispositions, enabling preventive measures and early interventions. Furthermore, genetic libraries can aid in the discovery of new therapeutic targets and the development of innovative drugs and therapies.In the field of agriculture, genetic libraries have proven invaluable. By analyzing the genetic makeup of crop plants and livestock, researchers can identify desirable traits, such as disease resistance, drought tolerance, and improved nutritional value. This information can then be used to develop more resilient and productive agricultural systems, contributing to global food security and sustainability.Genetic libraries also play a crucial role in the conservation of biodiversity. By preserving genetic samples from endangered species, researchers can study their genetic diversity, identify unique adaptations, and develop strategies for species preservation and reintroduction. This is particularly important in the face of the ongoing biodiversity crisis, where many species are at risk of extinction due to human activities and environmental changes.While the benefits of genetic libraries are substantial, there are alsoethical considerations that must be addressed. One significant concern is the issue of privacy and the protection of personal genetic information. As genetic libraries contain sensitive data about individuals, there are concerns about the potential misuse of this information, such as discrimination in employment or insurance, or the unauthorized sharing of genetic data.To address these concerns, robust ethical frameworks and regulatory guidelines have been developed to govern the collection, storage, and use of genetic data. These frameworks often include measures to ensure informed consent, data anonymization, and the implementation of strict security protocols to protect the privacy and confidentiality of individuals.Another ethical consideration is the potential for genetic libraries to be used for unethical purposes, such as the development of biological weapons or the enhancement of human abilities beyond natural limits. While these concerns are valid, the scientific community has put in place robust safeguards and oversight mechanisms to prevent the misuse of genetic information.In conclusion, genetic libraries are invaluable resources that have the potential to drive significant advancements in various fields, from medicine and agriculture to conservation and beyond. By providing researchers with a comprehensive and diverse collection of geneticmaterial, these libraries enable groundbreaking discoveries and the development of innovative solutions to pressing global challenges. However, it is crucial that the ethical implications of genetic research and the use of genetic libraries are carefully considered and addressed to ensure that the benefits of these resources are realized in a responsible and equitable manner.。
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可疑人物排序——logistic 回归模型
目标函数
min J ( )
: J ( )
为常数
为搜索步长
计算结果
1.9； 交叉验证误差： 0.27 训练集误差： S 0
可疑人物排序——logistic 回归模型
可疑人物的犯罪可能性排名前十的人名及序号
Name Node No. Probability of conspiracy
2012 ICM 论文赏析
Finding Conspirators in the Network
——Machine Learning with Resource-allocation Dynamics
Xxx部门 X年X月X日
赛题回顾（一）
赛题回顾（一）
推断结果：除了已知的同谋George and Dave之外， Ellen and Carol也被认为是同谋。
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V
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中间中心性（betweeness centraity）
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V
接近中心性（closeness centrality）
i, j Cc min
CD (i)
j 1
Cc max Cc min
i j
可疑人物排序——logistic 回归模型
线性回归模型 在数理统计中, 对大量观测数据进行统计分析时, 一泛利 用统计回归模型, 建立因变量与自变量之间有效的经验 函数关系；通过对回归结果的检验,可以分析各自变量对 因变量的影响。
E(W | x) 0 1x1 2 x2 ... n xn
直接利用线性回归模型来估算可疑人是犯罪分子的可 信度 P(Y | z)是不合适的。
现给出该公司83个人的400条对话所隶属的主题、 15个主题的内容（见附录），要求完成如下建模任 务：
赛题回顾（二）
要求1：到目前已知Jean, Alex, Elsie, Paul, Ulf, Yao, and Harvey是罪犯（7个），Darlene, Tran, Jia, Ellin, Gard, Chris, Paige, and Este（8个）不是罪犯。可疑 的消息topic是7,11和13。 将83个节点按照是阴谋者的可能性大小排序。 Jerome, Delores, and Gretchen是该公司的高级经理。 最好找出他们三个人中任何一个涉及阴谋 。
要求2：如果有新的信息告知我们说topic1也与阴 谋有关，而且Chris是一个阴谋？（即多了两个线 索）优先列表的变化。
赛题回顾（二）
要求3：如果你能获得原始对话，试用语义网络分析 （SNA）对信息流量的上下文和内容进行语义和文字 分析对于帮助你们的团队开发出更好的模型和办公室 人员的分类有多大的帮助和加强作用？ 你有没有使用这些基于文件Topics.xls中的主题描述的 功能来提高您的模型。
参数求解 （1）采用加权的最小二乘方法估计回归参数 （2）最大似然估计法，到目前为止是参数点估计中最 为常用的方法。
价值函数：用于评估参数
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可疑人物排序——logistic 回归模型
训练误差
S
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交叉验证误差
1 N0
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可疑人物排序——logistic 回归模型
梯度下降法
梯度下降法又称为最速下降法，就是利用负梯度方向来 决定每次迭代的新的搜索方向，使得每次迭代能使优化 的目标函数逐步减小。
真正结果：Bob招认出他确实参与其中，从而希望得 到减刑。而对Carol的控告后来被放弃了。 你的上司至今仍然相当肯定Inez也参与了，但却从未 对她立案。
你的上司建议您的团队，确定有罪的当事人，使像 Inez的人不漏网，像Carol的人不被诬陷，从而增加 ICM的信用，使像Bob的人不再有获得减刑的机会。
赛题回顾（二）
案例简介：主谋者和所有可能涉嫌同谋的人都以复杂 的关系为同一家公司在一个大办公室工作。 这家公司 一直快速增长，并在开发和销售适用于银行和信用卡 公司的计算机软件方面打出了自己的名气。调查者有 一些线索表明，一个阴谋正在挪用公司的资金和使用 网上诈骗盗窃在该公司做业务的顾客的信用卡资金。
目录
数据的挖掘 可疑者排序 推断领导人 灵敏度分析
社会网络的数据挖掘
文献检索：社会网络、犯罪网络的相关知识
Key words ：社会网络的 ——评价标准 ——核心挖掘
微博用户特征分析和核心用户挖掘
社会网络的数据挖掘—网络的拓扑性
点度中心性（degree centrality）
V
i, jCD (i) 可源自人物排序——logistic 回归模型
对上式进行变换，令 P(x) E(W | x) 得到
r
exp( r xi )
P(x)
i 1 p
1 exp( r xi )
i 1
所以只需计算出每个可疑人物（suspicious）的犯罪
概率P即可以排序。本文：
P(
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可疑人物排序——logistic 回归模型
可疑人物排序——logistic 回归模型
留一交叉验证法求 交叉验证(Cross-validation)主要用于建模应用中 基本思想：将原始数据进行分组,一部分做为训练集，另 一部分做为验证集，首先用训练集对分类器进行训练,在 利用验证集来测试训练得到的模型。
例如
S j {(x(l), y(l) ) | l 1,2,...j 1, j 1,...,N0}
赛题回顾（二）
案例对比
Case 1 ：只有10个人（节点），28条边（消息），5个 主题，1个可疑/阴谋主题，2个确定的罪犯，2个已知 的清白者。 Case 2 ：有83个节点，400条边（有些不止涉及1个主 题），超过21000个单词的消息记录，15个主题。
待解决的问题：
在不同的条件下：挖掘数据，给所有的可疑者排序； 找出犯罪领导人；语义网络分析改进模型；
Name Node No. Probability of conspiracy