2014铜矿市场分析 英文

Copper Analysis and Forecast 2013Each Quarter FastMarkets and Sucden produce an analysis and forecast report for the Copper market, analysis on changes to copper prices in the global markets and forecasting for the next quarter which subscribers to FastMarkets Professional receive soon after it is published. To read the full report covering gold, platinum, palladium and base metals click here, or to download the Copper only report click here. Introduction After copper peaked at $8,346 per tonne in February, it trended lower, bottoming out late at $6,602 in June before rebounding to a high around $7,425 - prices have since been rangebound between there and $7,024. The market feels well balanced for now - a scrap shortage has meant greater demand for copper cathodes but mine supply is now set to continue to improve, so we forecast a growing surplus. Unless demand surprises on the upside, we feel the surplus will weigh on prices throughout next year. The prospects for the tapering of quantitative easing (QE) and the fall-out this is likely to produce are expected to dampen the economic data, which has of late been looking brighter. Given that copper prices are still trading well above their marginal cost of production, it stands to reason that a deterioration in the fundamentals should put downward pressure on prices.Current situation The rally after the 2008 sell-off ran until February 2011; prices have since broadly oscillated lower. There have been extended periods when prices have moved sideways but the overall trend is still to the downside; given the fundamental outlook, we would now look for the downtrend to extend below $6,600 in the year ahead. Global growth is lame - the IMF has recently lowered its forecast for global growth this year to 2.9 percent from its July forecast of 3.2 percent. It expects growth in 2014 to be 3.6 percent, which, although stronger, remains weak. Given how emerging markets have reacted to the prospect of tapering, we would not be surprised if most forecasts for next year end up being revised lower.Summary of outlook for 2014 As always, much will depend on how China performs. While it has avoided a hard landing so far, the firmer stance taken by the new government, especially on the shadow bankingsector, is likely to prevent any rapid return to strong growth. But after years of high compound growth, Ch ina’s economy is now so large that even growth of 7.0-7.5 percent is still significant for consumption levels.Outside of China, the US seems to be the one large economy that is continuing to recover but growing opposition to ever-increasing deficits and debt from the political right is likely to act as a brake that keeps growth subdued. In Europe, there are signs of some recovery but high unemployment levels make us wonder how much of the improvement merely reflects the shift from destocking to hand-to-mouth buying; we are not bullish for Europe. Emerging markets are also likely to suffer further as liquidity is withdrawn while QE is reined in. Subsequently, copper demand growth throughout the remainder of 2013 and into 2014 is likely to be weak while supply is rising.Supply outlook Mine supply is starting to increase at a faster pace - we expect this to continue in the medium term while investments made during the period of high copper prices are commissioned. This is part of the boom/bust commodity cycle - high prices attract investment in new capacity; once these are brought online, it takes time for demand to rise to the extent that it again absorbs the new capacity. The fact that this new capacity is coming on stream during a period of relatively subdued demand growth now runs the risk of adding downward pressure to prices. The effects could worsen if this coincides with greater availability of metal from LME-listed warehouses and if there are fewer incentives to store metal off market in financing deals.ICSG data for the first six months of the year puts world mine supply growth at 8.8 percent on the same period in 2012. Concentrate output increased at an even faster pace of 10.2 percent, while solvent extraction-electro-winning (SX-EW) climbed 4.2 percent. Interestingly, rapid growth was recently more evident in SX-EW but this sector is now slowing.The overall rise was partially due to a recovery in production that was for various reasons idled last year - either industrial action or production disruptions. New production, however, is rising as new capacity comes on stream. Output has expanded or recovered at Antamina, Collahuasi, Los Bronces, Buenavista, Escondida and Frontier, with further capacity coming on stream this year at Oyu Tolgoi, Caserones, Antapaccay, Mina Ministro Hales and Toromocho, to name a few.The latest forecasts from the ICSG meeting in early October are for mine and refined copper production to rise 6.5 percent and 3.9 percent respectively in 2013 and increase a further 4.5 percent and 5.5 percent in 2014. This supports our view that mine supply is picking up at a faster pace than refined supply this year, so concentrate stocks will increase. This will in turn boost treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) so refined production growth next year is likely to be even stronger. In addition, the ICSG has cut its expected growth rate for refined production this year from 4.3 percent, which is no doubt tied into the supply disruptions at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg mine and at Rio Tinto’s Bingham Canyon mine earlier in the year.Chinese refined output has been increasing significantly thanks in part to the ever increasing T/C and R/C’s. September imports of scrap and concentrate showed marked increases and very recently reports confirm that concentrates from Oyu Tolgoi are reaching smelters thanks to agreements with the Chinese customs officials. On a regional basis, mine output has been growing in most regions this year, a trend that should continue in 2014 other than in Oceania. The strongest mine growth is expected in Africa, North America and Asia, with Europe seeing only slight increases. In 2014, refined production is forecast to grow at its fastest in Africa where refined production is expected to climb 14 percent to 1.475 million tonnes. For 2013, we expect global refined production to reach 20.9 million tonnes, climbing to 22.2 million tonnes in 2014.Demand outlook In the first half of 2013, global apparent usage was unchanged from the same period in 2012, with Chinese apparent demand falling as imports declined. Still, actual usage is likely to havecontinued to rise, with stocks of copper held in bonded warehouses in China thought to have declined significantly. Earlier in the year, bonded warehouse inventory reportedly climbed to around 900,000 tonnes before dropping back towards 350,000 tonnes and Shanghai Exchange stocks have also fallen since the start of the year. Apparent credit tightening has been prevalent in recent days as the Chinese central bank has restricted cash injections and consequent sentiment.Consumption was flat outside of China but there were regional differences, with increases in the US and Russia offsetting falls in Japan and Europe. The fall in Chinese refined copper imports (which ICSG data would interpret as a fall in demand) has probably happened while consumers have drawn down stocks.China accounts for around 40 percent of global copper consumption - it remains the single most influential demand component. With manufacturing PMI data swinging from below to above the 50 level, therefore showing expansion, and with good investment in the power generation and distribution industry as well as in the railway network, underlying demand for copper wire and cable is expected to be strong, even though the industry faces competition from aluminium cables in some applications. In addition, the march of urbanisation continues and the building of infrastructure and social housing should keep demand for copper buoyant in China. Chinese copper financing is still a major factor, particularly with regard to warrant premiums where Far Eastern locations have been commanding high premiums for some time, and also shipments from European warehouses and also putting pressure on premiums here, despite the slower physical demand.In Europe, there has been a pick-up in some data - the manufacturing PMI readings have moved above 50 although the data for September showed month-on-month weakness so there still seems little room for optimism. In addition, with the euro relatively strong while the yen and Indian rupee have weakened, along with many other emerging market economies, demand for EU exports may suffer, which in turn could hit regional copper demand. Into 2014, high unemployment and high debt - both government and private - will keep the economy subdued and, with it, demand for copper.In the US, the auto industry has gained momentum this year and the housing market has picked up, both of which are bullish signs for copper demand. However, the situation remain fragile as even the prospect of tapering lifted bond yields, which in turn raised the cost of corporate borrowing/mortgage rates, these have become a headwind for these sectors, especially housing.With the focus on US deficit, debt and on reining in QE it looks as though the economic recovery may well struggle across the rest of this year and into 2014, even though the underlying trend is still likely to be one of recovery.We were turning more bullish for Japan - government stimulus efforts and the lower yen looked set to increase demand for exports as well as boosting domestic demand. Tokyo's tone seems to have changed - the significant increase in sales tax to 8.0 percent from 5.0 percent may well dampen domestic demand while strengthening the yen. As Japan’s demand for copper to produce goods for the export market is seen as a zero-sum game - in that if demand for Japanese goods rises, d emand for other countries’ exports is likely to suffer - the key for the copper market as far as Japan is concerned is whether domestic demand rises.In emerging markets, the capital flight and currency weakness that goes hand in hand with the tapering of QE is likely to hit domestic consumer demand and strain government finances. This, in turn, is likely to reduce investment in infrastructure. On balance, demand for copper should grow around 1.1 percent this year, centred on emerging markets, especially China, but with some improvement in North America too. We remain positive for Chinese growth overall but feel the recovery may be relatively weak while the new leaders stamp their authority on local governments, the shadow banking sector and on the practice of misallocating capital investment, which has in the past led to the building of excess capacity. We now expect a period of relatively slow growth in China in the 7.0-8.0 percent band while Beijing targets sustainable growth that will not bring inflation with it.Chinese Trade In the first eight months of the year, refined copper imports dropped 19 percent to 1,925,000 tonnes, from 2,387,000 tonnes in the same 2012 period. Higher domestic production, helped by a 33 percent increase in concentrate imports and stock drawdowns, no doubt made up for the lower level of imports. Higher copper concentrate imports have been driven by a shortage in scrap availability, which saw scrap imports fall 9.5 percent during the same period.With China liking to add value where possible, we are not surprised that the pick-up in global mine production has seen the Chinese prefer to import concentrate rather than cathode - this is a trend we expect to see continue in 2014. What will be interesting will be whether the LME/Shanghai arbitrage windowreopens if copper prices fall, in which case much of t he world’s copper surplus could end up in China, with concentrate and cathode inventories rising – in turn this could help cushion LME prices.Stocks Exchange-traded stocks were around 693,500 tonnes in early October, up from 596,000 tonnes at the end of 2012, an increase of16 percent or 97,500 tonnes. Interestingly, though, stocks are well down from this year's peaks. LME stocks were last at 512,450 tonnes, down from a peak of 678,225 tonnes, Shanghai Exchange stocks were last at 151,124 tonnes, down from a peak of 247,591 tonnes, and Comex stocks at 29,843 tonnes were down from 70,712 tonnes at the start of the year. In addition, bonded warehouse stocks in Shanghai have fallen.The drawdown in stocks is thought to be the result of a combination of metal being drawn down to offset production losses to make up for scrap shortages and as some metal moved off warrant into financing deals.One key issue will be how much metal continues to be financed off market. Given the apparent supply deficit until this year, off-warrant stocks are unlikely to be that great.One of the reasons for the build-up in LME stocks earlier in the year - they climbed to a peak of 678,225 tonnes on June 26 from 320,500 tonnes at the start of the year - was warehouse companies offering incentives of around $100 per tonne to attract metal into warehouse.With the rules governing LME load-out rates now under review, warehouses have been less inclined to offer incentives so the outflow has continued while the inflow has slowed. In the first half of the year, before the LME announced it would review its load-out rules, the daily average inflow was around 4,900 tonnes per day but it has dropped to 1,796 tonnes per day since July.Cancelled warrants stood at 266,700 tonnes at the end of September, having peaked at 375,425 tonnes on June 26. The bulk of the cancelled warrants are held in Johor at 131,700 tonnes, Antwerp at 76,850 tonnes and New Orleans at 45,925 tonnes – these locations hold 96 percent of cancelled warrants, which account for 51 percent of total stock. Despite this level of cancelled warrants and their concentration, there is little sign of tightness in the forward curve, with the cash-to-three months spread around $26 per tonne in early October, just slightly below the average of $27 for the year to date.BalanceAfter a supply deficit of 421,000 tonnes in 2012, according to ICSG data, the market has swung into a surplus, which the ICSG forecasts around 387,000 tonnes this year, followed by an even bigger surplus in 2014 of 632,000 tonnes. Given that there have been some supply disruptions - this year’s surplus is likely to be lower than originally forecast while growth has improved, as recovery in manufacturing PMIs suggests - it looks as though consumption will also be slightly stronger than we originally thought. We have therefore revised our forecast surplus to 170,000 tonnes from 200,000 tonnes. Given this is just one percent of global consumption, the market remains fairly well balanced but the outlook is likely to be biased to the downside because a bigger supply surplus is expected next year - we forecast it at 600,000 tonnes.Conclusion Prices averaged $7,384 in the first nine months of the year; if copper trades between $6,700 and $7,420 in the final quarter and mostly in the $7,075-7,420 range, we would expect an average price for the year of around $7,250. Although the supply/demand surplus is relatively small, sentiment will focus on the likelihood of a larger surplus next year, which in turn may keep prices towards the lower levels of our expected range and the upper reaches only likely to be reached during short-covering rallies. In line with a larger surplus expected next year, we would look for prices to average $6,800 in 2014。