中国货币政策目标的选择

中国货币政策目标的选择

摘要

货币政策在国家宏观经济政策中发挥着十分重要的作用，它是国家宏观调控的重要手段之一。货币政策目标作为货币政策的核心，对其选择的科学与正确与否尤为重要。自中央银行产生以来，货币政策最终目标的选择便是各国宏观经济运行中的核心问题。在长期的实践中，逐渐形成了传统的四大货币政策的最终目标，即：物价稳定、充分就业、经济增长和平衡国际收支。货币政策的这四大目标之间并非毫无联系的独立存在的，它们之间既有统一性又有矛盾性。因此，各国在宏观经济政策的制定和运行时，便不可能兼顾所有目标，这就出现了货币政策目标的选择问题。在一个国家的所处的经济环境、面临的经济问题和推崇的经济理论共同作用的结果下，不同的国家，不同的历史时期的货币政策目标的选择是不同的。大多数西方国家政府在制定货币政策时，总会根据当时的经济形势对目标有所侧重。关于中国货币政策最终目标的选择，理论界一直存在着不同的看法和争论，大致上可分为单一目标论、双重目标论和多重目标论三种观点。1984年以来，中国货币政策无论从选择、制定或是执行、实施均处在一条艰难曲折的道路上探索。后来随着1995年《中华人民共和国中国人民银行法》的颁布，中国货币政策目标正式以法律形式确定为“保持货币币值稳定，并以此促进经济增长”。这一目标组合，既充分遵循了货币政策目标选择的一般规律，又符合现阶段国情与大力发展社会主义市场经济，促进国民经济持续、快速、健康发展的内在要求。实践证明，此目标是我国体制转换时期货币政策最终目标的科学的具有充分可行性的选择。货币政策涉及面广，对经济的影响广泛，在对货币政策目标选择的过程中既不能一味地复制西方的具体经验，也不能盲目独断，我行我素。最科学的方法时在借鉴优秀经验的基础上结合中国实际制定符合我国实际的货币政策目标。

Abstract:

Monetary policy, which is the major means of macro regulation and control, plays a very important role in the national macro-economic policies. Monetary policy target is the core of the monetary policy, and a right and scientific choice of the target is particularly important. Since the central bank has been established, choosing the ultimate target of monetary policy has become the key point of macro-economy in every country. During a long-time practice, four traditional ultimate targets of monetary policy have formed, which are price stability, full employment, economic growth and balance of international payments. These four targets of monetary policy do not exist independently; on the contrary, they are the unity of a contradiction. Therefore, when countries make and implement their macroeconomic policies, they can not cover all the targets. As a result, they have to face a problem of choosing the monetary policy targets. With the influence of the economic environment, the current economic problems and the well-acclaimed economic theory, different countries in different periods will

prefer different monetary policy targets. Most Western country governments will make monetary policy in accordance with the economic situation of that time. With regard to the ultimate goal of China's monetary policy options, economic theorists hold different views which can be generally divided into single-target theory, the twin goals of theory and multiple goals. Since 1984, China's monetary policy exploration in terms of selection, formulation or implementation has been in a difficult and tortuous path. Subsequently, in 1995, "Law of the People’s Republic of China on the People’s Bank of China" defined the monetary policy target of China as "to maintain stability of the currency and thereby promote economic growth." To combine the two goals, not only obeys the general rule of monetary policy objective choice, but also conforms to the present country condition and meets the innate demand of developing the socialist market economy and sustaining rapid-grown, healthy national economy. Practice has proved that this target is a science-based choice with full possibility to carry out during the period of the transition of economic structure in China. In conclusion, monetary policy covers wide range aspects of the society and has large effect on the economy. So when select the monetary policy targets, China can neither blindly copy the Western countries’ specific experience nor persist in its own way. The most scientific way to set monetary policy goals is to combine the right experience with the real situation of our country.

正文：

一、导言

作为国家宏观经济政策之一的货币政策在一国的经济运行及宏观调控中发挥着重大的作用，而对于作为其核心的货币政策目标的选择的正确与否更是重中之重。制定货币政策，首先必须明确货币政策的方向和所要达到的目的，即所要实现的目标。确切的说，货币政策目标应该是一个由最终目标，中介目标和操作目标有机组成的目标体系。但一般来说，货币政策目标是指最终目标。它是中央银行通过货币政策操作而最终要达到的宏观经济目标。货币政策最终目标的选择，决定了货币政策效力如何以及经济发展的方向。

从传统意义上讲，货币政策的最终目标一般有四个：保持币值稳定、促进经济增长、实现充分就业和平衡国际收支[1]。这四个目标也是基本的宏观经济目标，一直以来都是各国政府和中央银行力图实现的理想状态。但从各国的具体情况来看，不仅在表述上这四个目标存在差异，具体做法也各有所不同，这一系列差异的原因便涉及到了货币政策目标的选择问题。中国目前同样也面临着货币政策最终目标的选择的适当性和科学性问题。

二、传统的货币政策目标

由于各国经济的不断发展和长期实践，逐渐形成了传统的四个货币政策目标：物价稳定、充分就业、经济增长和平衡国际收支。