【实用资料】中国股市和美国股市镜像关系的实证研究14.ppt
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中国股市和美国股市镜像关系的实证研究13.ppt
Chap. 17 Organization Culture
§14.2 What does Culture do
1.Culture’s Functions
• A boundary-defining role--create distinction • Conveys a sense of identity for --al member • facilitate the generation of commitment to
• Barrier to diversity:strong culture can be liabilities when they effectively eliminate those unique strengths that people of different backgrounds bring to the --.
• national culture has a great impact on employees than does their -’s culture
• Geert Hofstede cross-culture comparison Individualism & Collectivism, Power distance, Uncertainty avoid, Quantity or Quality of life
• Barrier to change:for many --s with strong culture, practices that led to previous successes can lead to failure when those practices no longer match up well with environmental needs.
中美股市间相关性实证分析
经济工作・ＥＣＯＮＯＭＩＣＰＲＡＣＴＩＣＥ一、引言股市作为一国经济运行的晴雨表，随着资本市场全球化进程的加快，各国股市之间的相关性也越来越大。
中国资本市场最近几年得到了迅速的发展，尤其是证券市场越来越成熟，中国股市的国际性也随之增强。
美国股市作为全球最发达的股市，对于中国股市与美国股市间的相关性的分析研究具有重要的意义，不仅仅可以考察我国股市的国际性程度，而且可以帮助中国投资者在国际资本市场投资时进行股市走势判断及国别选择时提供参考，进一步降低投资风险，提高收益，同时还可以为我国资本市场的发展提供相关的建议。
对于中、美股市之间的相关性分析，一些学者曾做过研究，但是都集中对在２００３年以前股指数据进行分析。
大多数研究结果表明中、美股市相关性不强，甚至是没有相关性。
随着我国加入ＷＴＯ，金融市场逐步对外开放，ＱＦＩＩ制度的推出以及我国股权分置改革的进行，我国资本市场得到了迅速的发展，中国股市的国际性得到了大大提高，中、美股市间的相关性也应该有所增强。
本文则采用１９９７年至２００６年之间的数据，利用ＥＶＩＥＷＳ５．０软件，运用相关统计方法对中、美股市的相关性的大小、协整性进行了分析研究。
二、变量、数据与方法本文主要选择上证综合指数和标普５００指数作为我国和美国整体股市走势的指标。
数据样本主要选择１９９７年１月至目前的上证指数和标普５００指数的周收盘价数据，采用周收盘价的一阶差分作为股指收益，来反映中、美股市波动幅度。
数据均来源于Ｗｉｎｄ资讯。
在研究方法上，首先对中、美股市的整体走势及相关系数进行分析，分析我国股市与美国股市间的相关系数的大小及变化情况；然后，对于不同时期中、美股市协整性进行检验，分析中美股市之间的相关性及其影响的经济因素。
三、中、美股市间相关系数检验中国证券市场，特别是股票市场，以１９９０年１２月上海证券交易所与１９９１年４月深圳证券交易所营业为标志，在短短十几年的时间里得到了迅速发展，已形成以上海、深圳证券交易所为中心的全国证券交易市场体系。
中国股市和美国股市镜像关系的实证研究8.ppt
• Explorer-Promoters:champion initiated ideas
• Assessor-Developers:analyze decision options
• Thruster-Organizers:provide structure
• Concluder-Producers: provide direction & follow
7)The players have a primary position,adjusting to their
teammate’s strengths,weakness and the changing demands
of the “game”.--totally break with the past
• Shaping team players: Selection--job candidate with team skills, otherwise training,transference to other unit, reject Training--workshop to help improve skills like PS, communication,negotiation,conflict M,coaching Reward--encourage cooperative efforts rather than competitive ones; intrinsic rewards from team
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2.Clarity of the difference
• Work groups
Work teams
Share information--- Goal--- Collective performance
中美股市间的联动性分析
中美股市间的联动性分析中美股市间的联动性分析近年来，随着全球化进程的加速，中美两国股市的联系日益紧密。
中美两国是世界上最大的经济体，其股市的波动对全球经济具有重要影响。
正因如此，对中美股市之间的联动性进行深入分析，对于投资者、政策制定者以及学术界都具有重要意义。
一、中美股市背景中美两国是全球最大的股票市场。
美国股市以道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数（Dow Jones Industrial Average，简称“道指”）和标准普尔500指数（S&P500）为代表，中国股市以上证综合指数和深证成份指数为代表。
这两组指数都代表了各自股市的整体表现。
二、中美股市的波动性中美两国股市的波动性是衡量股票市场风险的重要指标。
通过对中美股市的波动性进行对比，可以看出两国股市之间的差异和联系。
1. 中美股市波动性的差异美国股市相对于中国股市来说，波动相对较小。
这主要是由于美国股市具有成熟的监管体系和法律制度，市场参与者的投资行为更加理性和稳健。
而中国股市则相对较为年轻，投资者整体风险偏好较大，市场流动性相对较差，波动性相对较大。
2. 中美股市波动性的联系虽然中美股市的波动性存在差异，但近年来二者之间的联系日益紧密。
尤其是在全球金融危机期间，中美股市的联动性表现得尤为明显。
一方面，中国股市受到全球股市的影响较大，尤其是美国股市；另一方面，中国是全球最大的外汇储备国，美国是中国最大的出口市场，两国经济的互动性也进一步加强了股市之间的联系。
三、中美股市之间的因素影响中美股市之间的联动性受到多种因素的影响，包括宏观经济因素、政策因素以及市场心理因素。
1. 宏观经济因素中美两国的经济基本面、 GDP增长率、通胀率、利率等因素都会对股市造成影响。
例如，当两国经济增长面临下行压力时，投资者可能会对股市前景产生担忧，从而导致股市波动加剧。
2. 政策因素两国政策制定者的政策举措也会对股市产生直接的影响。
特别是与贸易、关税、汇率等相关的政策，对股市波动具有明显的推动效应。
【实用资料】中国股市和美国股市镜像关系的实证研究9.ppt
willingness to accomplish a specific task
4 stages
power variables such as-• Matching leaders & situation:favorable I,II,iii,Vii,Viii;
change the leader to fit the situation; change the situation to fit the leader
Chapter 11 Leadership
§11.1 Definition the ability & process to influence a group toward the achievement of
goals
not all leaders are managers;nor,for that matter,are all managers leaders
1.(2)Cognitive resource theory
update in 1987
• A theory of leadership stating that a leader obtains effective group performance by,1st, making effective plans,decisions,& strategies;2nd, communicating them through directive behavior
Chapter 11 Leadership
§11.4 Contingency theories
leadership effectiveness was dependent on the situation,isolate those critical
中国股市和美国股市镜像关系的实证研究6.ppt
• 5-step problem-solving model: (1)identification of performance-related behaviors;(2)measurement of the behaviors; (3) identification of behaviors contingencies; (4)development & implementation of an intervention strategy;(5)evaluation of performance improvement
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Examples of
• Quality circle: a work group of 8-10 employees who
meet regularly to discuss their quality problems,investigate causes,recommend solutions,& take corrective actions
• Gainsharing:an incentive plan where improvement in
group productivity determines the total amount of money that is allocated
• expectancy theory
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• representative participation:workers participate in
organizational decision making through a small group of representative employees
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Examples of
• Quality circle: a work group of 8-10 employees who
meet regularly to discuss their quality problems,investigate causes,recommend solutions,& take corrective actions
• Gainsharing:an incentive plan where improvement in
group productivity determines the total amount of money that is allocated
• expectancy theory
2019-9-6
• representative participation:workers participate in
organizational decision making through a small group of representative employees
【实用资料】中国股市和美国股市镜像关系的实证研究5.ppt
• Maslow: a rigid steplike progression. ERG:contains a frustration-regression dimension
• Several studies have supported the ERG theory:natives of Spain & Japan place social needs before their physiological requirements
5.Reinforcement theory
• Moderator: goal commitment, adequate selfefficacy,national culture
1.ERG theory Clayton Alderfer of Yale
reworked Maslow’s theory to align it more closely with the empirical research
• There are 3 groups of core needs:existence, relatedness,& growth
Class 5.Motivation Theory
§5.2 Contemporary theory of Motivation
having one thing in common:each has a reasonable degree of valid supporting
documentation
• Self-generated feedback(monitoring his own progress) ---a
more powerful motivator; Participative goals may have no superiority over assigned goals when acceptance is taken as a given, participation add the odds that harder goals be agreed
• Several studies have supported the ERG theory:natives of Spain & Japan place social needs before their physiological requirements
5.Reinforcement theory
• Moderator: goal commitment, adequate selfefficacy,national culture
1.ERG theory Clayton Alderfer of Yale
reworked Maslow’s theory to align it more closely with the empirical research
• There are 3 groups of core needs:existence, relatedness,& growth
Class 5.Motivation Theory
§5.2 Contemporary theory of Motivation
having one thing in common:each has a reasonable degree of valid supporting
documentation
• Self-generated feedback(monitoring his own progress) ---a
more powerful motivator; Participative goals may have no superiority over assigned goals when acceptance is taken as a given, participation add the odds that harder goals be agreed
中国股市和美国股市镜像关系的实证研究2.ppt
---(job performance)
Absenteeism
Turnover
Job satisfaction
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I.Biographical Characteristics
1.Age
• Age-Turnover:The older you get,the less likely you are to quit your job.
females to have higher---;no difference
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I. 3.Marital Status
• No enough studies on--- Productivity
• Married employees have fewer Absences,
Fixed-internal:rewards are spaced at uniform
time intervals, Variable-internal
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IV. Learning
2. Shaping:A Managerial Tool
• Reinforcement Schedules and behavior Continuous reinforcement---early satiation,
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IV. Learning
2. Shaping:A Managerial Tool
• Shaping behavior:systematically reinforcing
each successive step that moves an individual closer to the desired response
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• culture encouraging experimentation.reward both success & failure,celebrate mistakes.rewarded for the absence of failures rather than for the presence of successes
• the politics of change:threaten the status quo; power, stakeholder,impetus--new comer
4.Approach to managing change
(1) 3-Phase (Lewin’s notion)
• Unfreezing:change effort to overcome the pressures of both individual & group conformity,
5.Key Change issues in the 1990s
(1)creating the learning organization
• --has developed the continuous capacity to adapt & change
• single-loop learning:errors are corrected using past routines & present policies
Dimensions of Organizational Change
Top Down _______________ Bottom-up Radical _______________ Incremental Discontinuous _____________ Continuous Planned _______________ Emergent OD ----Incremental, gradual, planed changes Organizational transformation---Decisive,
rapid,fundamental changes
Chap. 18 Organizational Change & Development
§18.1 Forces of Change
Specific factors acting as stimulantc & Changing environment
3.What can change agents change?
• Structure:alter 1 or more of the key elements in -,major modifications in
• technology:most of early studies dealt with efforts aimed at technological change.introduction of new equipment,tools,methods;automation;computerizat ion
• world politics
2.Managing Planned Change
• Change:making things different. • Planned Change:change activities that are
intentional & goal-oriented. Accidental occurrence;proactive & purposeful • the goals:improve the ability of - to adapt to changes in its environment;change -- behavior • order of magnitude:1st-order:linear & continuous, no fundamental shift; 2nd-order:multidimensional, multilevel,discontinuous,& radical • Change agents: persons acting as catalysts & assume the responsibility for managing --
• physical setting:consider work demands,formal interaction requirement & social needs when m- d. About space configurations,interior design,equip placement
• competition:global competitions,mergers & considerations,growth of specialty retailers
• social trends:increase in college attendance & divorce rate, delayed marriages by young peoples
• human resources:promote training & development of -- to keep current.offer high job security so -- don’t fear getting fired for M-M.champion of change:s-c. Per,energy,r-t,lead
• implementation, equilibrium state
• Refreezing or institutionalization:stabilizing a change intervention by balancing.
Sustained over time,prevent from being short lived & reverting to the previous -• the analysis of driving forces: forces that direct behavior away from the status quo. constrainting forces: forces that hinder movement away -- achieved in 1 of the 3 ways,--,--,combine the 1st 2
• A new idea applied to initiating or improving a products, process or service
• structural variables:organic -- positively influence innovation; long tenure in -- is associated with --. 3.nurtured where there are slack resource,bearing the cost of -; internunit communication facilitate cross-fertilization
• evaluation:the effectiveness of the actions,using the initial data gathered as points of reference.
5.Key Change issues in the 1990s
(1) stimulating organizational innovation
• people: changing the attitudes & behaviors of --.od
4.Resistance to change
• Individual:habit,security,economic factors, fear of the unknown,selective information process
• organization:structural inertia,limited focus of change,group inertia,threat to expertise, threat to established power relationships, (R-A)
• overcoming:education & communication, participation, facilitation & support,negotiation, manipulation & cooperation,coersion
• Technology:IT automation,TQM program, BPR • nature of the work force:more cultural diversity,
increase in professions,many new entrants with inadequate skills • economic shocks:security market crashes,interest rate fluctuations,foreign currency fluctuations
• double-loop learning:errors are corrected by modifying the --’s objectives, policies & standard routines
• basic characteristics of--:a shared vision; put aside old ways of thinking;think of all -- factors with the environment as part of a system of interrelationships; be open with each other without fear of --;sublimate -- to work together to achieve the --’s shared vision
• the politics of change:threaten the status quo; power, stakeholder,impetus--new comer
4.Approach to managing change
(1) 3-Phase (Lewin’s notion)
• Unfreezing:change effort to overcome the pressures of both individual & group conformity,
5.Key Change issues in the 1990s
(1)creating the learning organization
• --has developed the continuous capacity to adapt & change
• single-loop learning:errors are corrected using past routines & present policies
Dimensions of Organizational Change
Top Down _______________ Bottom-up Radical _______________ Incremental Discontinuous _____________ Continuous Planned _______________ Emergent OD ----Incremental, gradual, planed changes Organizational transformation---Decisive,
rapid,fundamental changes
Chap. 18 Organizational Change & Development
§18.1 Forces of Change
Specific factors acting as stimulantc & Changing environment
3.What can change agents change?
• Structure:alter 1 or more of the key elements in -,major modifications in
• technology:most of early studies dealt with efforts aimed at technological change.introduction of new equipment,tools,methods;automation;computerizat ion
• world politics
2.Managing Planned Change
• Change:making things different. • Planned Change:change activities that are
intentional & goal-oriented. Accidental occurrence;proactive & purposeful • the goals:improve the ability of - to adapt to changes in its environment;change -- behavior • order of magnitude:1st-order:linear & continuous, no fundamental shift; 2nd-order:multidimensional, multilevel,discontinuous,& radical • Change agents: persons acting as catalysts & assume the responsibility for managing --
• physical setting:consider work demands,formal interaction requirement & social needs when m- d. About space configurations,interior design,equip placement
• competition:global competitions,mergers & considerations,growth of specialty retailers
• social trends:increase in college attendance & divorce rate, delayed marriages by young peoples
• human resources:promote training & development of -- to keep current.offer high job security so -- don’t fear getting fired for M-M.champion of change:s-c. Per,energy,r-t,lead
• implementation, equilibrium state
• Refreezing or institutionalization:stabilizing a change intervention by balancing.
Sustained over time,prevent from being short lived & reverting to the previous -• the analysis of driving forces: forces that direct behavior away from the status quo. constrainting forces: forces that hinder movement away -- achieved in 1 of the 3 ways,--,--,combine the 1st 2
• A new idea applied to initiating or improving a products, process or service
• structural variables:organic -- positively influence innovation; long tenure in -- is associated with --. 3.nurtured where there are slack resource,bearing the cost of -; internunit communication facilitate cross-fertilization
• evaluation:the effectiveness of the actions,using the initial data gathered as points of reference.
5.Key Change issues in the 1990s
(1) stimulating organizational innovation
• people: changing the attitudes & behaviors of --.od
4.Resistance to change
• Individual:habit,security,economic factors, fear of the unknown,selective information process
• organization:structural inertia,limited focus of change,group inertia,threat to expertise, threat to established power relationships, (R-A)
• overcoming:education & communication, participation, facilitation & support,negotiation, manipulation & cooperation,coersion
• Technology:IT automation,TQM program, BPR • nature of the work force:more cultural diversity,
increase in professions,many new entrants with inadequate skills • economic shocks:security market crashes,interest rate fluctuations,foreign currency fluctuations
• double-loop learning:errors are corrected by modifying the --’s objectives, policies & standard routines
• basic characteristics of--:a shared vision; put aside old ways of thinking;think of all -- factors with the environment as part of a system of interrelationships; be open with each other without fear of --;sublimate -- to work together to achieve the --’s shared vision