证券投资分析pptChapter13

•
Market analysis
– – We can see the influence of changes in the overall economy on various classes of investments Some investments do better than others before, during, and after recessions, for instance
Expectational Analysis
Underlying concept: • Forecasting should take into account:
– The current environment – Assumptions behind estimates – A procedure for monitoring both changes in the environment and violations of the assumptions being made
• Econometric Modeling
– Models developed to forecast economic variables
Risks in Economic Forecasting
• Dominated by “group think”
– Always using consensus numbers ensures no better than average forecasts – Forecasts must be different (often) and yet still correct (usually) to create value
– Exchange rates impacted by relative interest rates, inflation rates, and real economic growth within a country and across countries
Economic and Security Market Influences
– Fiscal policy
• Government taxing and spending policies to influence the economy and pursue other public interests
A Quick Review of Economic Concepts
– Monetary policy
• Policies of the Fed to control the money supply and thereby affect the overall economy • Open market operations • Discount rate changes • Reserve requirement changes
Forecasting Tools
• Searching for leading indicators that will provide signals of future economic directions • Inflation Indicators
– Inflation at times is related to turning points in the business cycle – Inflation destroys the purchasing power of wealth – Federal Reserve actions indicate likely trends in inflation
• • • •
Many analysts are short-sighted Lots of data can overwhelm us Try to support a position Over-reliance on expected “normal” changes without regard to the possibility of “shocks”
Economic Analysis and Efficient Markets
• If markets are efficient, should we bother with analysis? • Yes! In fact, in an efficient market, likely the only way to outperform market averages is to forecast the future better than the consensus.
Chapter 13
ECONOMIC AND INDUSTRY ANALYSIS
Chapter 13 Questions
• What are the generic approaches to security analysis? • What are the components of gross domestic product (GDP), and what can they tell us about industry prospects? • How do international economic factors affect the U.S. economy? • What are the major determinants of an economy’s long-term growth?
Expectational Analysis
In the top-down approach:
1. Analyze the current macro-economy and make assumption fiscal policies.
Generic Approaches to Security Analysis
• Top-Down Approach (Our focus)
1. Review the macro-economy 2. Analyze different industries and sectors 3. Determine buy/sell candidates
Chapter 13 Questions
• Why must an analyst review both cyclical change and structural change when analyzing an industry? • What are the five basic competitive forces that determine the intensity of competition in an industry and, thus, its rate of return on capital? • What is the industrial life cycle and its stages?
Chapter 13 Questions
• What are the primary influences affecting the short-term growth of an economy? • What indicators can be used to forecast economic variables? • What is expectational analysis? • How is the stock market related to economic activity?
• As we forecast economic growth, a number of factors will influence our expectations • Influences on Long-term Expectations
– – – – – – Technology Population Labor force participation Productivity Resource availability Incentives to expand
A Quick Review of Economic Concepts
Domestic Economic Activity • Forecasting trends in major economic variables such as GDP, inflation, interest rates • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) components
Generic Approaches to Security Analysis
• Two basic approaches:
– Emphasize history, looking for trends – Focusing on the future
• Still look at some historical information, but focus on looking forward to future trends • Top-down approach • Bottom-up approach
• Money supply and money growth rates relative to measures of economic growth
– Commodity prices
Forecasting Tools
• Monetary Indicators
– Impact both inflation and liquidity – Federal Reserve policy
Economic and Security Market Influences
• Influences on Short-term Expectations