外文文献原文及译文
附录1 外文文献原文及译文原文：An evaluation of NDT methods for the location and sizing of forging discontinuitiesIn selecting an NDT method for flaw detection in forgings a number of variables must be considered:a) the type of discontinuity to be assessed;b) the method to be used for detection and evaluation, andc) the variables associated with the forging itselfThe variables in item a) will govern the location within the forging and its orientation with respect to a particular surface Item b) could include a considerable array of NDT methods, but for the purpose of this paper only the six most widely used are considered一visual testing (VT), penetrant inspection(PI), magnetic particle inspection(MI), eddy current testing (ET), radiographic inspection (RT) and ultrasonic inspection (UI). In the last item c) the component race include such things as condition, geometry access for inspection.a)Forging discontinuitiesThe location of the discontinuity will have a significant influence on the selection of the NDT method to be used and they are therefore grouped into three categories, to aid this selection:1. open to the surface: laps, seam, burst, slugs, cracks and inclusions2. slightly subsurface: seam, stringers, inclusions and grain structure variations3. internal: stringers, burst, lamination, grain structure, inclusions and pipingA brief review of these terms may be helpful:Lap: folded metal, flattened into the surface but not fusing with itSeam: linear flaws due to oxidized blow holes or ingot splashes, which are elongated by hot workingBurst:ruptures caused by failure of plastic deformation by processing at too low a temperature or excessive working of metalStringers: a bar stock defect, due to non metallic inclusions being squeezed out into long and thin stringsLamination: planar defect aligned parallel to surface, originating in the original ingot from rolled out pipingCracks: transgranular failure, due to localized stresses resulting from non-uniform heating or cooling and non-plastic deformationInclusions: impurities, such as slag, oxide and sulphides, often from the original molten stage in forming the billet used for forgingGrain structure: depending upon the extent of working, (deformation and recrystllisation) can be as small as 0.5mm or as large as 10mmPiping: a cavity at the centre of the ingot or billet, caused by shrinkage during solidification Slug: a piece of foreign matter that has been pressed or rolled into the surface of the material b)The NDT MethodVT—visual testing is the oldest of the NDT methods but still valid and widely used today The system is based upon observation, usually by a human observer, but now increasingly by digital/video cameras which use pattern recognition to locate dissimilar areas in a surface. The sensitivity will depend upon the method but typically a good observer with simplevisual aids can resolve 0.5mm differences aids will include magnifying glasses (up to x10), microscopes(up to x100) and fibred-optic bores copes and endoscopes for viewing internal details in hollow or complex sections. The system is used for surface inspection only with costs in the range $4 to $4000.PT一the surface is covered with brightly covered oil (typically red or fluorescent), which will penetrate any surface openings. After removal of excess, an absorbent, white powder is applied, which draws any trapped oil to the surface. This creates an indication of the presence of the surface opening. This process, like visual inspection, also requires visual acuity, but the indications are ‘enhanced’ by the process, since‘bleed-out’ spreads the visual image. Costs can range from as little as $4 for a couple of cans, to $8000 for a process ‘line’. Both VT and PT are surface inspection systems only arid will therefore detect only those discontinuities that have a definite surface opening Surface cleanliness is very important, particularly with PT.MT一ferromagnetic materials carrying a large flux density; retain the presence internally, with little external evidence other than at the poles. Any discontinuity in the material will disturb this uniform flux and create a small ‘leakage’ at the site of the discontinuity. This leakage can be detected by the fact that finely divided; ferromagnetic particles collect at the-site, creating an indication. As with PT, the particles can be colored, to increase contrast, which when viewed under suitable lighting, create a clear visual image of the discontinuity. However, unlike PT the leakage can pass through thin layers of paint or plating materials, so that the discontinuity does not have to be open to the surface. The system can therefore detect surface AND slight subsurface discontinuities. However this is only possible in ferromagnetic materials, such as iron, mild and tool steel, nickel, cobalt and martenstic stainless. It will not operate on Paramagnetic or Diamagnetic materials, such as copper, aluminum and austenitic stainless steel. A small electromagnet can cost as little as $200, but a large `bench type' machine can cost up to $10 000 and the cost of electricity can be substantial.ET一Direct current flowing in a coil, sets up a longitudinal magnetic, field through the coil, and exhibits a particular resistance to flow. If the current is alternating, then a further effect一inductive reactance, adds to this resistance, the total being impedance. This impedance also causes a lag between the current and the voltage, called a phase shift. This shift and impedance are characteristics of the coil.If the coil is now placed close to a conducting surface, the reversing magnetic field induces a reversing current in the conducting (eddy current) which opposes the inducing field. This opposition alters the impedance of the coil and a suitable instrument can detect these changes (both phase angle and/or impedance).For a given ,discontinuity-free surface , a specific alteration will be present which can be zeroed .If the coil now passes over a discontinuity, a change in induction will occur which will be registered by the instrument. However, a change in the conductivity of the material will also effect the induction, as will changes in permeability. Thus, non-uniform heat treatment, segregation and in homogeneities in material composition and structure will also effect the induction and create an ‘indication’. Another critical factor is the distance between the coil and the test surface. This ‘lift off’ can be used in a positive way to determine coating or paint thickness’, on conducting materials. But equally, differences in the coil/specimen gap can result in non-relevant signals. The system can therefore detect surface AND slight subsurface discontinuities. However this is only possible in conducting materials and the proximity of the test coil to the test surface is critical. This means that for any component (other than flat plate), special probes are usually designed to follow specific component contours. A small eddy current machine can cost as little as $2000, but a large automated machine can cost upto $20 000RT一Short wavelength, electromagnetic radiation will pass through many materials, depending upon density and thickness, and then create a range of exposures on either film or a fluoroscopic screen, to present a visual image of the internal composition of the item. Differences in absorption within the material due to such things as gas holes, cracks and bursts will create photographic density differences on the film or detector, which can be interpreted by trained personnel. The source of radiation can be an X-ray tube or a gamma source (such as Iridium or Cobalt) and the images can be generated on either film or as real-time images on fluoroscopic screens. Defect orientation is a vital factor in radiography since it is thickness differences, which the process detects. Hence, a lamination type defect, parallel to the film would be almost impossible to detect. On the other hand, a crack perpendicular to the film would almost certainly be detected. It is therefore often the case that a single component would have to be radio graphed from more than one direction, in order to detect most defects. Finally, the radiation used is highly hazardous and therefore any environment in which it is used, must suitably shielded, to prevent exposure of the operator. As well as shielding the use of X or gamma rays will also require, monitors, alarms, interlocks and personal dosimetry systems, which along with the film itself, adds to the cost.A basic X-ray set up would cost around $10000 and with ancillary equipment and film could cost $3000 per year to run.UT—At an interface between materials of differing acoustic impedance, a sound wave will have a proportion reflected and the remainder transmitted. Thus a gas hole or crack in a forging will reflect a sound beam because of their large difference in acoustic impedance with the metal structure containing them. Since ultrasound travels in a given material at a known (predictable) velocity, then the distance to a reflector will be a direct function of this time of flight of the pulse of sound. Its location can therefore be estimated .Since the amplitude of the returning signal is also related to the size of the reflector, then an approximation can be made of the extent of the reflector, in terms of length through-wall thickness and width. The data can be presented as an ‘A’scan, on a cathode ray tube (requiring skilled interpretation) or as a ‘B’ or ‘C’ scan, where the data are plotted on printers or strip charts as a permanent record. Depths of penetration can be adjusted (by calibration and probe selection) from 10mm to 3 meters in suitable, fine-grained material. However cast, or large grained forged material, could be attenuate signals to the extent that they are untestable. A typical portable flaw detector and probes would cost around $5000, a fully automated ‘C’ scan immersion system could cost $2000.c)The variables associated with the forging1.Surface conditionFor VT and PT surfaces better than 6.3um Ra would yield the best results. For MT a similar situation exists, where a confusing background could result from rough surfaces. ET also requires a smooth a surface for preference, since ‘lift-off’ effects could be unacceptable. For RT a surface roughness exceeding 1% of material thickness could result in a significant loon of sensitivity. However for UT, a suitably viscous ‘couplant’could assist in sound transmittance, but entry surface ‘noise’on the timebase and attenuation would reduce sensitivity.2.GeometryFlat surfaces are the simplest to inspect, by any method. However, PT is least influenced by geometry, being a liquid process. MT requires that the flux be at 90 to the discontinuity and thus, curved surfaces and hollow sections offer particular problems. VT may require special access equipment and ET will need specially designed probes for curved or irregular surfaces. Since RT relies on absorption differences, variations in thickness due to curvaturewill result in large variations in photographic density and a consequent loss of film contrast. In UT the probe has best transmittance when it is whole face is in direct contact with the surface. Any curvature will result in “rocking”of the probe and a consequent loss of “coupling” and reduced signal amplitude.plexityForged bar, billet, rod and plate offer simple shapes for inspection, but aircraft landing gear is an entirely different manner. PT is the least influenced by complex shapes when using the water washable system VT will require longer inspection periods and aids such as mirrors and bores copes. For MT, the more complex the shape, the more difficult it is to arrive at an all over procedure and individual flux/current tor the various sections ET will again require specially shaped probes and RT a larger number of film exposure and angled shots UT will need careful planning to ensure complete coverage and may not be possible if access is limited.4.ThicknessVT, ET, PT and MT are all unaffected by thickness since they are surface methods. RT has an approximate thickness limit of 300mm in steel and at 2% sensitivity (a typical value), will only record discontinuities of 6mm maximum section, in the plane of the radiation. UT is capable of inspecting beyond 2 meters in fine-grained material but is less effective below 10mm or so.5.Discontinuity OrientationVT and PT are unaffected by orientation. In MT, for maximum sensitivity the flux should be at right angles to the discontinuity. ET requires that the discontinuity be at right angles to the coil windings and RT has its maximum sensitivity when the discontinuity lies parallel to the radiation beam. UT has the maximum response when the reflector is at right angles to the sound beam.译文：对铸件缺陷位置和尺寸的无损检测方法的评价对铸件裂纹探测时，选择无损检测方法必须注意以下几点：a)评定缺陷类型；b)确定评定和探测缺陷的方法；c)铸件自身相关的变化。
国际服务贸易外文文献翻译
国际服务贸易外文翻译文献(含：英文原文及中文译文)文献出处：《World Development》，2015，12（1）：35-44.英文原文The research of international service trade and economic growth theoryChakraborty Kavin1 IntroductionThe study of the relation between international trade and economic growth is one of the most active issues. Since 1980s, the world has been in transition from national economy orientating towards natural resources and manufacturing industry to global and regional economy orientating towards information resources and service industry. After the signature of GA TS in1994, the institutional arrangements on liberalizing service trade result in a world-wide involvement division and exchanges of service trade, and it is undoubtedly that the positive interaction between service trade and investment leads to economic growth. But the theoretical research on service trade lags behind practice.Is it a statistic phenomenon or a universal rule of economic growth? To approach the above two issues from theoretical and empirical perspective is of great value to policy-making.For the proposition of that "International service trade will drive economic growth". Theoretical analysis shows that although service tradeis not a direct interpretative variable to economic growth, it can effect economic growth indirectly through other growing factors and technology upgrade, but the ways and mechanisms are different in different stages. In a certain stage of economic development, service trade (including investment) will have static and dynamic effect on factors supply and technology upgrade in one county, which will lead to the domestic alteration of resources condition structure. It is the enterprises that select industry structure, technology structure and trade structure according to dynamic alteration way of comparative technology structure and trade structure, which will ultimately promote evolution of economic growth gradually. So far as operational mechanism of service trade and investment is concerned, service trade affects factors supply in one country by physical capital accumulating effect, human capital effect, technology upgrade effect, institutional transition effect, employment effect and externality of technology, then influences the upgrade of industrial structure, the upgrade of technological structure and the transition of mode of economic growth. It is obvious that dynamic effect is greater than static effect; that external effect is playing more important role than internal effect; and that technology spillover effect of foreign direct investment in service industry is greater than that of service trade in a narrow sense (including across-border supply, consumption abroad and movement of natural person).For the research of mechanism about how service trade drive economic growth. Firstly, the paper verifies the causality between service trade and economic growths concerning different economic bodies and the representative countries. The results show that there are causalities between international service trade and economic growth in the whole world, in the developed countries, in the US and in china. In the developing countries, service trade is the Granger cause of economic growth; In the whole world and the developing countries, economic growth is the Granger cause of service trade; In the US, service export is the Granger cause of economic growth, and economic growth is the Granger cause of service import. On this basis, it is concluded that the opening of service industry will benefit economic growth in one country. Secondly, in order to explore on how the service trade and investment act on economic growth, empirical studies are employed to explain the case of US and that of China. The results show that the routes by which service trade affects economic growth in the US can be rowed as follows from more significant to less: employment effect, human capital effect, physical capital effect, technology effect, institution effect. The results of empirical analysis of China can be summarized that: the routes by which service export affects economic growth can be rowed as follows: employment effect, physical capital effect, institution effect, human capital effect, technology effect; the routs by which service import affectseconomic growth can be rowed as follows: technology effect, institution effect, employment effect, human capital effect, physical capital effect; the routes by which FDI in service affects economic growth can be rowed as follows: technology effect, human capital effect, institution effect, employment effect, physical capital effect. Moreover, the effect of FDI in service is stronger than service import, and the effect of service import is stronger than service export.According to the empirical test in this paper, the conclusion can be drawn as follows: service trade in a narrow sense will have static and dynamic effects on factor supply in one country through import and export of service, FDI in service industry is one of the most important cross-border transactions and is another important channel which will affect the transition of advantages on factor supply in one country. It should be emphasized that the above-mentioned channels will have different effects on countries at different stages of economic development. Whether the roles can be brought into play or not depends on given restraints. The input output of factors themselves cannot form a clear function, but will interact together and act on economic growth hand in hand through numerous feedback chain.Chinese economy is now undergoing transformation from elementary age to middle age of industrialization. Service trade and investment in current period have both advantages and disadvantages.Based on these judgments, we propose that China should pursue a policy favoring protectionism on management of service trade and adopt relevant countermeasures as follows. Scientific development view should be formed with an eye to harmonizing development of three industries so as to lay a solid industries foundation for service trade; The strategic programming should be stipulated and the market of service trade should be opened gradually; The rule of international transfer of service trade should be mastered and environment of utilizing foreign investment on service industry should be improved.As the characteristics of the world's service-oriented economy have gradually emerged, service trade originating from the upgrading of industrial structure has developed rapidly, and the scale of service trade is rapidly expanding. From the statistical data, the total exports of world service trade rose rapidly from 365 billion U.S. dollars in 1980 to 377.779 billion U.S. dollars in 2008, an increase of 9.35 times. Compared with the trade of goods with a long history, service trade is a new form of trade. With the continuous increase in absolute size and relatively low levels, service trade has become a focus of attention in modern society.2 The impact of overall service trade on economic growthAccording to the WTO General Agreement on Trade in Services (GA TS), which was signed in 1994, trade in services includes Cross- border Supply, Consumption A broad, Commercial Presence, and naturalperson mobility. (Movement of Natural Persn) Four modes. The service trade of these four modes has completely different properties and characteristics. Therefore, it is difficult to establish a unified theoretical framework for service trade to affect economic growth. The corresponding literature is very rare. The only foreign documents are mainly Robinson et al. (2002), who simply regard service trade as a commodity. Trade, without taking into account differences in the four trade models, studied the economic growth effects of service trade liberalization using the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model.Using empirical methods to study the literature on the impact of overall service trade on economic growth is more, but such studies are mostly domestic scholars. Research shows that the average contribution of China's overall service trade to economic growth is 18.9%.3 Effect of Service Trade in Different Industries on Economic GrowthAt present, the literature on the impact of industry trade in service trade on economic growth is mostly concentrated in such service sectors as finance, telecommunications, and health care. These studies have basically reached a relatively unanimous conclusion that the opening of the service sector or the increase in productivity can significantly promote economic growth. . For example, studies by Beck et al. (1998), M urinde & Ryan (2003), and Eschenbach (2004) suggest that the opening of the financial sector has, to a certain extent, broken the monopoly of domesticfinancial markets and prompted the orderly competition of financial markets. On the normal development track, productivity has improved, and it has finally led to economic growth in the country. Kim (2000) studied the relationship between the development of service trade in the distribution sector and the growth of total factor productivity (TFP) using Korea's input-output data. The results show that the liberalization of service trade not only significantly promoted its own TFP. The promotion also promoted the improvement of total factor productivity in the related manufacturing sector. The total factor productivity growth brought about by service trade almost covered the entire economic sector.4 Effect of Service Trade on Economic Growth by Different Trading ModesThere are few literatures on specific transaction models and theoretical studies on the impact of trade in services on economic growth. Carr et al. (2001) & M arkusen et al. (2005) theoretically examined the commercial existence model by means of the CGE model. The impact of the trade in services on economic growth shows that the opening up of trade in services is an important source of the increase in economic welfare of a country. From the perspective of economic welfare, the opening up of trade in services is a general trend. Subsequently, the use of CGE models to theoretically examine the impact of service trade on economic growth began to prevail. For example, Rutherford et al. (2005)used the CGE model to evaluate Russia's WTO accession effects, and Ko nan &Maskus (2006) used CGE models. The potential effects of Tunisia's elimination of barriers to trade in services were studied. Their conclusions indicate that the increase in the level of economic welfare in one country can benefit from the opening up of the service market, while the elimination of FDI market access barriers in the service sector is a pattern of four trades. The most important liberalization measures are the main sources of increased welfare in a country. There are a lot of literatures on the relationship between service trade and economic growth in specific models using empirical methods. In the four modes of trade in services, commercial presence is the most important one, and from the point of view of data availability, although statistical data is still not very accurate, commercial existence of service trade is based on service industry FDI as a carrier. To achieve this, researchers can use service industry FDI data to characterize the scale of service trade in this model, and this type of trade model has received more attention. Among them, Markusen (1989) believes that the existence of commercial trade in services has two positive and negative effects. The positive effect is that competition in the service sector has led to an increase in domestic demand for the sector’s production factors, which is conducive to output growth. The effect of market size and negative effects means that the intensified competition in the domestic market of service industries has led to the withdrawal ofdomestic service-oriented enterprises from the market. The study by Markusen (1989) shows that the effect of market size after the opening of the service market far exceeds the crowding-out effect. After offsetting the crowding-out effect, it can still promote the productivity improvement of the non-service sector and further lead to the structure of domestic trade in goods. The changes, those sectors that were previously low in productivity and dependent on imports, will evolve into high-productivity export sectors, which is quite similar to the latest research findings on the interactive development of producer services and manufacturing. Hoekman (2006) and Hoekman (2006) used India as an example to examine the impact of the existence of commercial trade in services in the finance, telecommunications, and transportation sectors on the competitiveness of the goods export sector, and believe that these sectors have been liberalized. The level of soft facilities has been increased, which in turn has greatly reduced the operating costs of the downstream product manufacturing sector, which has increased the export competitiveness. With the inefficiency of the domestic service industry, the unfavorable pattern is reversed with the help of commercial presence of service trade. Feasible choice. Guerrieri et al. (2005) took the EU as the research object and analyzed the role of commercial trade in services for knowledge accumulation and economic growth. The study concluded that the openness of the service market or the relaxation of domesticservice regulations has positively promoted economic growth. It was found that the imported service items may be more able to promote economic growth than the domestic same service items due to high technological content.5 Possible Future Research DirectionsIt is not difficult to find from the above-mentioned documents that since the development of service trade started late, research on the growth of service trade began to rise gradually from the 1980s, and more than 20 years of research in this area is in the ascendant. With the further enhancement of the status of trade in services, the possible directions for future research will generally include the following aspects.From the point of view of research methodology, classification of service trade can be studied. As the theory of goods trade has gradually matured, the development practice of service trade still calls for the birth of the theory of service trade. Helpman and Markusen, international economists, expressed on different occasions that the difficulty in establishing the theoretical system of service trade lies in the fact that there are large differences in various types of service trades, and it is difficult for researchers to overcome the gap between them. Classifying service trade according to certain standards and exploring the impact of various types of service trade on economic growth is a possible direction for future research.From the perspective of the research subjects, it is possible to study China’s service trade and economic growth. China’s GDP has already ranked second in the world. However, the service industry’s added value accounted for only 40% of GDP, which is obviously not commensurate with the status of an economic power. In addition, the trade in services is still relatively small compared to the trade in goods. Under such a realistic background, what is the relationship between China's service trade and economic growth? How will service trade contribute to China's economic growth? What impact will service outsourcing have on China's economy? With China in In the next decade, how will China make service trade an engine of economic growth? From the academic point of view, economists from all countries are paying attention to China’s economic development, and China’s service trade will also be improved. It will become a research hotspot.From the perspective of research topics, it is possible to study the impact of service outsourcing on economic growth. In 2008, the scale of global service outsourcing market has reached 1.5 trillion US dollars. According to the UNCTAD (UNCT AD) speculation, the global service outsourcing market will increase by 30%-40% in the next 5-10 years.The surging service industry outsourcing is a new form of service trade. How does service outsourcing drive economic growth through employment, industrial structure upgrading, and technology spillovers?What are the differences in the impact of contracting and receiving services on economic growth in the service industry? Research on these issues will start with the development of service outsourcing to important theoretical guidance.中文译文国际服务贸易与经济增长理论与实证研究Chakraborty Kavin1 引言国际贸易与经济增长始终是国际经济学最生动的论题之一。
毕业论文(设计)外文文献翻译及原文
金融体制、融资约束与投资——来自OECD的实证分析R．SemenovDepartment of Economics，University of Nijmegen，Nijmegen（荷兰内梅亨大学，经济学院）这篇论文考查了OECD的11个国家中现金流量对企业投资的影响.我们发现不同国家之间投资对企业内部可获取资金的敏感性具有显著差异,并且银企之间具有明显的紧密关系的国家的敏感性比银企之间具有公平关系的国家的低.同时，我们发现融资约束与整体金融发展指标不存在关系.我们的结论与资本市场信息和激励问题对企业投资具有重要作用这种观点一致，并且紧密的银企关系会减少这些问题从而增加企业获取外部融资的渠道。
一、引言各个国家的企业在显著不同的金融体制下运行。
金融发展水平的差别(例如，相对GDP的信用额度和相对GDP的相应股票市场的资本化程度），在所有者和管理者关系、企业和债权人的模式中，企业控制的市场活动水平可以很好地被记录.在完美资本市场,对于具有正的净现值投资机会的企业将一直获得资金。
然而，经济理论表明市场摩擦，诸如信息不对称和激励问题会使获得外部资本更加昂贵，并且具有盈利投资机会的企业不一定能够获取所需资本.这表明融资要素，例如内部产生资金数量、新债务和权益的可得性，共同决定了企业的投资决策.现今已经有大量考查外部资金可得性对投资决策的影响的实证资料（可参考，例如Fazzari（1998）、 Hoshi(1991)、 Chapman（1996）、Samuel(1998））.大多数研究结果表明金融变量例如现金流量有助于解释企业的投资水平。
这项研究结果解释表明企业投资受限于外部资金的可得性。
很多模型强调运行正常的金融中介和金融市场有助于改善信息不对称和交易成本，减缓不对称问题,从而促使储蓄资金投着长期和高回报的项目,并且提高资源的有效配置（参看Levine（1997)的评论文章）。
因而我们预期用于更加发达的金融体制的国家的企业将更容易获得外部融资.几位学者已经指出建立企业和金融中介机构可进一步缓解金融市场摩擦。
外文参考文献译文及原文【范本模板】
广东工业大学华立学院本科毕业设计（论文）外文参考文献译文及原文系部城建学部专业土木工程年级 2011级班级名称 11土木工程9班学号 23031109000学生姓名刘林指导教师卢集富2015 年5 月目录一、项目成本管理与控制 0二、Project Budget Monitor and Control (1)三、施工阶段承包商在控制施工成本方面所扮演的作用 (2)四、The Contractor’s Role in Building Cost Reduction After Design (4)一、外文文献译文（1）项目成本管理与控制随着市场竞争的激烈性越来越大,在每一个项目中，进行成本控制越发重要。
本文论述了在施工阶段,项目经理如何成功地控制项目预算成本。
本文讨论了很多方法。
它表明，要取得成功，项目经理必须关注这些成功的方法.1。
简介调查显示,大多数项目会碰到超出预算的问……功控制预算成本.2.项目控制和监测的概念和目的Erel and Raz (2000）指出项目控制周期包括测量成……原因以及决定纠偏措施并采取行动。
监控的目的就是纠偏措施的。
.。
标范围内。
3.建立一个有效的控制体系为了实现预算成本的目标，项目管理者需要建立一……被监测和控制是非常有帮助的。
项目成功与良好的沟通密。
决（ Diallo and Thuillier， 2005）.4.成本费用的检测和控制4.1对检测的优先顺序进行排序在施工阶段，很多施工活动是基于原来的计……用完了。
第四,项目管理者应该检测高风险活动，高风险活动最有。
..重要（Cotterell and Hughes, 1995)。
4.2成本控制的方法一个项目的主要费用包括员工成本、材料成本以及工期延误的成本。
为了控制这些成本费用，项目管理者首先应该建立一个成本控制系统：a)为财务数据的管理和分析工作落实责任人员b)确保按照项目的结构来合理分配所有的……它的变化-—在成本控制线上准确地记录所有恰..。
外文文献翻译(图片版)
本科毕业论文外文参考文献译文及原文学院经济与贸易学院专业经济学（贸易方向）年级班别2007级 1 班学号3207004154学生姓名欧阳倩指导教师童雪晖2010 年 6 月 3 日目录1 外文文献译文（一）中国银行业的改革和盈利能力（第1、2、4部分） (1)2 外文文献原文（一）CHINA’S BANKING REFORM AND PROFITABILITY（Part 1、2、4） (9)1概述世界银行（1997年）曾声称，中国的金融业是其经济的软肋。
当一国的经济增长的可持续性岌岌可危的时候，金融业的改革一直被认为是提高资金使用效率和消费型经济增长重新走向平衡的必要（Lardy，1998年，Prasad，2007年）。
事实上，不久前，中国的国有银行被视为“技术上破产”，它们的生存需要依靠充裕的国家流动资金。
但是，在银行改革开展以来，最近，强劲的盈利能力已恢复到国有商业银行的水平。
但自从中国的国有银行在不久之前已经走上了改革的道路，它可能过早宣布银行业的改革尚未取得完全的胜利。
此外，其坚实的财务表现虽然强劲，但不可持续增长。
随着经济增长在2008年全球经济衰退得带动下已经开始软化，银行预计将在一个比以前更加困难的经济形势下探索。
本文的目的不是要评价银行业改革对银行业绩的影响，这在一个完整的信贷周期后更好解决。
相反，我们的目标是通过审查改革的进展和银行改革战略，并分析其近期改革后的强劲的财务表现，但是这不能完全从迄今所进行的改革努力分离。
本文有三个部分。
在第二节中，我们回顾了中国的大型国有银行改革的战略，以及其执行情况，这是中国银行业改革的主要目标。
第三节中分析了2007年的财务表现集中在那些在市场上拥有浮动股份的四大国有商业银行：中国工商银行（工商银行），中国建设银行（建行），对中国银行（中银）和交通银行（交通银行）。
引人注目的是中国农业银行，它仍然处于重组上市过程中得适当时候的后期。
第四节总结一个对银行绩效评估。
外文文献翻译译稿和原文
外文文献翻译译稿1卡尔曼滤波的一个典型实例是从一组有限的，包含噪声的，通过对物体位置的观察序列（可能有偏差）预测出物体的位置的坐标及速度。
在很多工程应用（如雷达、计算机视觉）中都可以找到它的身影。
同时，卡尔曼滤波也是控制理论以及控制系统工程中的一个重要课题。
例如，对于雷达来说，人们感兴趣的是其能够跟踪目标。
但目标的位置、速度、加速度的测量值往往在任何时候都有噪声。
卡尔曼滤波利用目标的动态信息，设法去掉噪声的影响，得到一个关于目标位置的好的估计。
这个估计可以是对当前目标位置的估计（滤波），也可以是对于将来位置的估计（预测），也可以是对过去位置的估计（插值或平滑）。
命名[编辑]这种滤波方法以它的发明者鲁道夫.E.卡尔曼（Rudolph E. Kalman）命名，但是根据文献可知实际上Peter Swerling在更早之前就提出了一种类似的算法。
斯坦利。
施密特（Stanley Schmidt）首次实现了卡尔曼滤波器。
卡尔曼在NASA埃姆斯研究中心访问时，发现他的方法对于解决阿波罗计划的轨道预测很有用，后来阿波罗飞船的导航电脑便使用了这种滤波器。
关于这种滤波器的论文由Swerling（1958）、Kalman (1960)与Kalman and Bucy（1961）发表。
目前，卡尔曼滤波已经有很多不同的实现。
卡尔曼最初提出的形式现在一般称为简单卡尔曼滤波器。
除此以外，还有施密特扩展滤波器、信息滤波器以及很多Bierman, Thornton开发的平方根滤波器的变种。
也许最常见的卡尔曼滤波器是锁相环，它在收音机、计算机和几乎任何视频或通讯设备中广泛存在。
以下的讨论需要线性代数以及概率论的一般知识。
卡尔曼滤波建立在线性代数和隐马尔可夫模型（hidden Markov model）上。
其基本动态系统可以用一个马尔可夫链表示，该马尔可夫链建立在一个被高斯噪声（即正态分布的噪声）干扰的线性算子上的。
系统的状态可以用一个元素为实数的向量表示。
消费者行为心理学中英文外文文献翻译
消费者行为心理学中英文外文文献翻译(含：英文原文及中文译文)英文原文Frontiers of Social PsychologyArie W. Kruglanski 、Joseph P. ForgasFrontiers of Social Psychology is a new series of domain-specific handbooks. The purpose of each volume is to provide readers with a cutting-edge overview of the most recent theoretical, methodological, and practical developments in a substantive area of social psychology, in greater depth than is possible in general social psychology handbooks. The editors and contributors are all internationally renowned scholars whose work is at the cutting-edge of research.Scholarly, yet accessible, the volumes in the Frontiers series are an essential resource for senior undergraduates, postgraduates, researchers, and practitioners, and are suitable as texts in advanced courses in specific subareas of social psychology.Some Social Asp ects of Living in a Consumer SocietyThe following sketches will illustrate that in a consumer society much of the behavior studied by social psychologists relates to consumer stimuli and consumer behavior. Thus, the consumer context provides a rich field for the study of social phenomena and behavior.Consumer Decisions Are UbiquitousWhether we are in the supermarket or not, we are constantly making consumer decisions. We enroll in gyms, use our frequent-flyer miles for a vacation resort, buy health care, choose a restaurant, skip dessert for a healthier lifestyle. In fact, most of our daily decisions do not involve existential decisions such as whom to marry or whether to have children or not, but whether to have tea or coffee, use our credit card or pay cash, or other seemingly trivial decisions. Moreover, many of our daily (consumer) behaviors do not even require intentional decisions. Rather, they may be habitual, such as switching to CNN to get the news or accessing Google when looking up some information. A typical day of a typical person is filled with countless minor consumer decisions or the consequences of previous decisions, starting with the brand of toothpaste in the morning to choosing a movie after work.Consumer Choices Fulfill a Social-Identity FunctionAlthough for most people being a consumer may not be central to their identity, many of their consumer decisions are nevertheless highly identity-relevant insofar as they correspond to a larger set of values and beliefs and express important aspects of the self. Eating a vegetarian diet because one does not want to endorse cruelty to animals and boycotting clothes potentially made by child laborers are some examples. Some people buy a Prius out of environmental concerns; others boycott Japanese cars —such as the Prius —in order to help the local carindustry. In this respect, even the choice between Coke and Pepsi is not necessarily trivial. People who cannot discriminate Coke from Pepsi in a blind test, or who prefer Pepsi, may nevertheless adhere to Coke as a cultural icon. Attempts to change the formula of Coke met with angry protests and opposition. Clearly, consumer products and brands do not only fulfill utilitarian needs (Olson & Mayo, 2000; Shavitt, 1990). In a world of oversupply and differentiating brands, many consumers choose brands in order to express their personality or to affiliate themselves with desired others. They do not simply use a Mac; they are Mac users, and switching to another brand of PC would be akin to treason. From soft drinks to computers, brands may become an ideology. People may also perceive of products as extended selves (Belk, 1988); for example, they may identify with their cars just as they do with pets. Likewise, brands may define social groups. The Harley-Davidson Club is a legendary example; an Internet search revealed clubs for almost every car brand and model. In my hometown, I found a V olkswagen New Beetle Club whose stated purpose is to cultivate contacts between New Beetle Drivers by organizing social events (among others, a visit to a car cemetery). On the road, drivers of the same car model often greet each other. Apparently, driving the same model is sufficient to establish social closeness. Brands, products, and consumption habits not only help to establish social connectivity but also serve as status symbols, defining vertical andhorizontal social boundaries. By using particular brands or consuming specific products, people can express a certain lifestyle or attempt to convey a particular social impression. Subscribing to the opera conveys one’s social position just as going to a monster truck race does. Whether your choice of drink is wine or beer, cappuccino or herbal tea, your order expresses more than merely your taste in beverages.Consumer Choices Affect Social PerceptionGiven that brands and products are part of social expression, it is not surprising that people are judged by the brands and products they use. In particular, products of a social-identity function are used as bases for inferences about a target’s personality traits (Shavitt & Nelson, 2000). Likewise, smoking, food choice and amount of food intake have all been shown to affect social impressions. Depending on the subculture of the perceiver (age, country), different personality traits are assumed in smokers compared with nonsmokers (e.g., Cooper & Kohn, 1989; Jones & Carroll, 1998). Various studies found that eaters of a healthier diet are perceived as more feminine and in general judged more favorably than eaters of unhealthy foods (for a review see V artanian, Herman, & Polivy, 2007). Arguing that a Pepsi drinker is to a Coke drinker what a Capulet was to a Montague is, of course, an exaggeration, but clearly brands may distinguish ingroup from out-group members. Possibly this is most extreme among teenagers, where the brand of jeans is perceived todetermine coolness and popularity. Nevertheless, the phenomenon is not limited to teen culture, as testified by the previous examples of social communities defined by shared brands. In sum, from wet versus dry shaving to driving a Porsche versus a Smart, consumer behavior is used as a cue in person perception. Most likely, such cues also manifest in behavior toward these consumers. Physical attacks on women who wear fur are a most extreme example.Affective Consequences of Consumer BehaviorObviously, consumption and the use of products and services may give pleasure and satisfaction or displeasure and dissatisfaction. People may experience joy from wearing a new sweater or suffer emotional consequences when products or services fail or cause inconvenience. Product use is only one source of affective consumer experiences. The mere act of choosing and acquisition is another. People enjoy or dislike the experience of shopping. They may take pleasure from the freedom of simply choosing between different options (e.g., Botti & Iyengar, 2004), feel overwhelmed and confused by an abundance of options (e.g., Huffman & Kahn, 1998), or feel frustrated by a limited assortment that does not meet their particular needs (e.g., Chernev, 2003). They may experience gratification and a boost in self-esteem from the fact that they can afford a particular consumer lifestyle or grudge the fact that they cannot. Many daily sources of affective experiences involve consumerbehavior in one way or another.The Consumer Context Provides Unique Social InteractionsGranted, we rarely form deep and meaningful relationships with our hairdressers and waiters. Still, the consumer context affords many social interactions over a day. Again, these interactions— even if brief— may constitute a source of affective experiences. The smile of the barista, the compliment from the shop-assistant, and the friendly help from the concierge are just a few examples of how such consumerrelated interactions may make us feel good, worthy, and valued, whereas snappy and rude responses have the opposite effect. Besides, the social roles defined by the consumer context may provide unique opportunities for particular behaviors, interactions, and experiences not inherent in other roles. Being a client or customer makes one expect respect, courtesy, and attendance to one’s needs. For some, this may be the only role in their life that gives them a limited sense of being in charge and having others meet their demands. To give another example, complaining is a form of social interaction that mostly takes place within the consumer context. A search for ―complaint behavior‖ in the PsycI NFO database found that 34 out of 50 entries were studies from the consumer context. (The rest mostly related to health care, which may to some extent also be viewed as consumer context.) Given the importance of the consumer context to social experiences and interactions, it provides a prime opportunity forstudying these social behaviors.•How consumers think, feel, reason, and the psychology of screening for different items (such as brands, products); • Consumer behavior when they shop or make other marketing decisions;•Limits in consumer knowledge or access to information affect decisions and marketing outcomes;•How can marketers adapt and improve their marketing competitiveness and marketing strategies to attract consumers more efficiently?Bergi gives an official definition of consumer behavior: the process and the activities people perform when they research, select, purchase, use, evaluate, and deal with products and services in order to meet their needs. The behavior occurs in a group or an organization where individuals or individuals appear in this context. Consumer behavior includes using and handling products and studying how products are bought. The use of products is generally of great interest to marketers because it may affect how a product is in the best position or how we can encourage increased consumption.The Nicosia model focuses on the relationship between the company and its potential customers. The company communicates with consumers through its marketing messages or advertisements and consumers' reactions to the information they want to buy. Seeing this pattern, we willfind that companies and consumers are interconnected. Companies want to influence consumers. Consumers influence company decisions through their decisions.Consumer sentiment refers to a unique set of emotional reactions to the use of or eliciting a consumer experience in the product, a unique class or relationship of the emotional experience described and expressed (such as joy, anger and fear), such as the structural dimensions of the emotional category or pleasant/unpleasant, Relax/action, or calm/excited. Goods and services are often accompanied by emotional reactions (such as the fear caused by watching a horror movie). Emotional values are often associated with aesthetic choices (such as religion, reason). However, more material and utilitarian products also seem to have emotional value. For example, some foods cause childhood experiences and feel comfortable with them. Izad (1977) developed a method of emotional experience and introduced basic emotions. He uses ten words to distinguish the basic types of emotions: interest, joy, surprise, sadness, anger, disgust, contempt, fear, shame, and guilt. This method has been widely used by consumer research.In order to implement the interpersonal and personal construction in this framework, we use the concept of self-awareness to express the influence of consumer response on society. Self-awareness is defined as the individual's consistent trend to focus directly on inward or outward.This theory identifies two different types of people with self-consciousness. The open self-conscious person pays special attention to other people's views on their outside. The private self-conscious person pays more attention to their inner thoughts and feelings. In this case, we assume that the reputation of consumption may be different based on sensitivity to other people. This proposal is also consistent with previous research. It shows that people with different personal behaviors depend on their sensitivity to interpersonal influences. Dubois and Dikena emphasized that "we believe that the analysis of the direct relationship between consumers and brands is a key to improving understanding of such a market." This original assumption is that of private or The value of the open superior product comes from the inherent social status of these objects. Many existing studies emphasize the role of the role played in the exchange of information about their owners and social relationships.中文译文社会心理学前沿艾瑞·克鲁格兰斯基，约瑟夫·弗加斯社会心理学的前沿是一个新的领域专用手册系列。
外文参考文献译文及原文
目录1介绍 (1)在这一章对NS2的引入提供。
尤其是，关于NS2的安装信息是在第2章。
第3章介绍了NS2的目录和公约。
第4章介绍了在NS2仿真的主要步骤。
一个简单的仿真例子在第5章。
最后，在第.8章作总结。
2安装 (1)该组件的想法是明智的做法，以获取上述件和安装他们的个人。
此选项保存downloadingtime和大量内存空间。
但是，它可能是麻烦的初学者，因此只对有经验的用户推荐。
(2)安装一套ns2的all-in-one在unix-based系统 (2)安装一套ns2的all-in-one在Windows系统 (3)3目录和公约 (4)目录 (4)4运行ns2模拟 (6)ns2程序调用 (6)ns2模拟的主要步骤 (6)5一个仿真例子 (8)6总结 (12)1 Introduction (13)2 Installation (15)Installing an All-In-One NS2 Suite on Unix-Based Systems (15)Installing an All-In-One NS2 Suite on Windows-Based Systems (16)3 Directories and Convention (17)Directories and Convention (17)Convention (17)4 Running NS2 Simulation (20)NS2 Program Invocation (20)Main NS2 Simulation Steps (20)5 A Simulation Example (22)6 Summary (27)1介绍网络模拟器(一般叫作NS2)的版本，是证明了有用在学习通讯网络的动态本质的一个事件驱动的模仿工具。
模仿架线并且无线网络作用和协议(即寻址算法，TCP，UDP)使用NS2，可以完成。
一般来说，NS2提供用户以指定这样网络协议和模仿他们对应的行为方式。
包豪斯工业设计外文翻译文献
外文文献翻译(含：英文原文及中文译文)英文原文Germany Bauhaus design and Future Design TrendAbstractGerman Bauhaus had a significant influence on the modern design education, meanwhile, it established the foundation of the leading position in the world for German industrial design. Through analyzing on current industrial design conditions from different countries, art design is considered as the main part of industrial design. This paper reviewed the last 10 years’ development of industrial design program in Zhejiang University of Science and Technology. The industrial design program have taken considerable achievements in many fields, such as the practice of Germany model, disciplines construction, teaching reform, manufactures & college cooperation, project teaching and design competitions. And Y ou cannot ignore the industrial design ten trend Keywords: Bauhaus, industrial design, project teaching, practice , 10 Industrial Design Trends1. German Bauhaus and industrial designGerman Bauhaus Design and Future Design TrendsAbstractGerman Bauhaus has a significant influence. At the same time, modern design education laid the foundation for the world's leading German industrial design. By analyzing the current industrial design conditions in different countries, artistic design is considered as the main industrial design. This article reviews the process of developing industrial designs in the last 10 years. Industrial design programs have taken considerable success in many areas such as the German practice model, professional construction, teaching reform, collaboration between production and engineering colleges, teaching and design competitions and ten trends in industrial design that you cannot ignore.Key words: ten trends of Bauhaus, industrial design, project teaching, practice, industrial design1. German Bauhaus and Industrial DesignIn 1919, the school had built Bauhaus Weimar, Germany. This is known as the “cradle of world industrial design” and the history of this milestone art design. Bauhaus believes that the most important thing is to allow students to explore their own ways of designing, rather than teaching their teachers; to cultivate students' ability to think independently and critically, instead of putting certain design styles on them. Compared with other schools with similar design education, Bauhaus philosophy has a unique philosophy of education. It took a thorough reform of the traditional art design education system andestablished art design as a new professional discipline. At the same time, Walter Gropius, the founder of Bauhaus, put forward the "unified art and technology" as the leading design philosophy of education.One of Bauhaus's works is a general industrial product that actively purifies the form. Bauhaus stressed that the design of the product's shape should be based on basic geometric models such as cubes, squares, and circles. The form of the product, and outlined should be simple and varied in different ways and follow abstract forms of principles and aesthetics. Because of Bauhaus's bravery and active exploration and reform, he took a major influence on the formation of the modernist artistic style and enabled Bauhaus to design a world-class reputation. Therefore Bauhaus became a milestone in the history of modern design art.The American artist Jose Sinel first mentioned the industrial design of the term in 1919. However, in China, until 1983, the Ministry of Education had met the industrial design disciplines and sample major ordinary universities. The original name was "The main product formation was" students for the arts. In 1998, the national priority category was adjusted to be integrated into international conventions. The “major” product formation has long since focused on the human-product-environment relationship in the field of product morphology and other research. This name has replaced "industrial design" and some of the major schools for engineering and art education.Bauhaus has many top European artists during this time, such as Kandinsky and Kerry. They are famous abstract painters. Their teaching trains students and leads to Bauhaus's 20th-century art design. The most famous industrial designers such as Philip Starck behar Marc Newson and Maca graduated from the School of Art Design. Their success proves that industrial design education in art design education is effective. The product form design is still an important aspect. Industrial design in undergraduate industrial design research is currently an important part of the famous Art Design School.The Academy of Art and Design of the Norwegian Royal Academy of Arts, the University Politecnico Duisburg-Esse Milan, the applied sciences and arts of Hannover University (Hanover Industrial Design Division), all of whom belong to the School of Art and Design.According to a survey: the American Association of Industrial Designers (IDSA organized by the United States) in 1998, there are 49 colleges, which have industrial design undergraduate or graduate programs registered on the IDSA-sponsored list. Typical industrial design students are usually set up in art schools and can obtain bachelor degree or above, fine arts or related majors. Most people are accredited to the school NASAD (National Association of Arts and Design). Only 15 - schools are not certified. After five years o f IDSA’s announcement, only registered industrial design students can be recognized. Among them are37 industrial design majors in universities, 6 in design colleges, and 4 in art schools. This situation has not changed in the current year.Asia: In Japan, industrial design majors also set in art schools or independent industrial design faculties, such as Tokyo Zokei University, Musashino Art University, Tama Art University, and University of Tsukuba etc. In Hongkong, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University has famous industrial design programs. In Taiwan, Shih Chien University, National Cheng Kung University, National Yunlin University of Science & Technology have famous industrial design programs. In mainland of China, Jiangnan University, Tsinghua University, Hunan University, Tongji University and the Guangzhou academic of fine arts all have their industrial design departments in the art design schools or departments.2 10 Industrial Design Trends Y ou Can't Ignore2.1 Design For A CauseCompanies including Herman Miller and American Apparel are promoting their ideals through design. Y ves Béhar's leaf lamp for Herman Miller (shown) uses a biomorphic grid of LEDs, which consume 40% percent less energy than fluorescent lights and last for 100,000 hours. And Nike plans to make its entire footwear line out of sustainable materials by 2010.2.2 SimplexitySteve McCallion, executive creative director of Portland, Ore.-basedindustrial design firm Ziba Design, says there's a trend toward "simplexity," products that have many functions but are approachable, ergonomically correct and easy to use--like Apple's iPhone. The baby boomers have also propelled simplexity; as the generation ages, the need for easy-to-use, at-home medical equipment becomes greater. Ami V erhalen, director of industrial design at Madison, Wis.-based Design Concepts, says that in-home health care will be a huge driver for product innovation in the upcoming decade.2.3 PersonalizationFrom Nike ID shoes to Build-a-Bear teddies, retailers are adding a "build your own" element to brands. Do it yourself--or DIY--serves as an important element of this trend. Publications like Ready Made magazine and books like designer Wendy Mullin's Sew U encourage consumers to put their own spin on things.2.4 GlobalizationLike other industries, outsourcing has affected international design. Today a designer in Delhi might be working with a manufacturer in Columbus. Steve McCallion says that the globalization of product design has created Internet communities that enable more people to participate in the design process. Companies like Kid Robot can employ toy designers from Tokyo to Tucson with greater ease than ever.2.5 OrnamentationIn fashion design, we're seeing a return to minimalism, but in home decor, ornate details are in fashion. For the first time in decades, wallpaper is in fashion, and the details are rich--brocades, velvets and jewel-tone colors. Long-forgotten textile designers like Florence Broadhurst and V era Neumann are receiving attention from a new generation of design-savvy consumers.2.6 Polarization Of DesignBig-box or luxury retailer? Many experts say that design has been polarized, with innovative products available at both the very high end (Neiman Marcus, Moss) and the very low end (Target, Ikea). Meanwhile, midrange retailers like Macy's suffer from lack of fresh, on-trend ideas. That isolates the huge chunk of the population that can afford something higher-end than the $200 Malm bed at Ikea but scoff at the price of a $16,000 Hastens mattress.2.7 Pink DesignGadgets are a guy's game, right? Not if you consider the latest products with feminine mystique. Motorola released a lipstick pink Razr cellphone, and more recently, LG released a Prada phone. More and more manufacturers are creating sleeker, feminized versions of their clunky, chunky products, and both men and women are biting. Want proof of the feminization of product design? Just check out , which rates several items a day as "Geek chic" or "Just Plain Geeky."2.8 Mass ImperfectionSome designers are creating intentionally flawed pieces, like designer Jason Miller's duct tape chair or Bodum's Pavina glassware collection, which uses mouth-blown double-walled glass, giving each piece a slight variation in height, thickness and weight. Whiskered and weathered textiles--on denim as well as furniture and tapestries--are more recognizable examples of intentional imperfection in production.2.9 CraftAs mass retailers like Target become more design-focused, there's a countertrend of independent manufacturers and designers creating one-off, heirloom pieces. Where to find these limited-edition treasures? Artisan e-commerce sites like , classical craft companies like Heath Ceramics and modernist design houses such as Design Within Reach.2.10 Focus On The Other 90%Anthony Pannozzo, vice president of design strategy at Waltham, Mass.-based firm Herbst LaZar Bell, says that well-designed products are available to only 10% of the world's population. However, more and more designers are starting to cater to consumers in Africa, Asia and Latin America.中文译文德国包豪斯设计与未来设计趋势摘要德国包豪斯有显著的影响, 与此同时, 现代设计教育奠定了基础, 它处于世界领先地位的德国工业设计。
交通安全外文翻译文献中英文
外文文献翻译(含：英文原文及中文译文)英文原文POSSIBILITIES AND LIMITA TIONS OF ACCIDENT ANALYSISS.OppeAbstraetAccident statistics, especially collected at a national level are particularly useful for the description, monitoring and prognosis of accident developments, the detection of positive and negative safety developments, the definition of safety targets and the (product) evaluation of long term and large scale safety measures. The application of accident analysis is strongly limited for problem analysis, prospective and retrospective safety analysis on newly developed traffic systems or safety measures, as well as for (process) evaluation of special short term and small scale safety measures. There is an urgent need for the analysis of accidents in real time, in combination with background behavioural research. Automatic incident detection, combined with video recording of accidents may soon result in financially acceptable research. This type of research may eventually lead to a better understanding of the concept of risk in traffic and to well-established theories.Keyword: Consequences; purposes; describe; Limitations; concerned; Accident Analysis; possibilities1. Introduction.This paper is primarily based on personal experience concerning traffic safety, safety research and the role of accidents analysis in this research. These experiences resulted in rather philosophical opinions as well as more practical viewpoints on research methodology and statistical analysis. A number of these findings are published already elsewhere.From this lack of direct observation of accidents, a number of methodological problems arise, leading to continuous discussions about the interpretation of findings that cannot be tested directly. For a fruitful discussion of these methodological problems it is very informative to look at a real accident on video. It then turns out that most of the relevant information used to explain the accident will be missing in the accident record. In-depth studies also cannot recollect all the data that is necessary in order to test hypotheses about the occurrence of the accident. For a particular car-car accident, that was recorded on video at an urban intersection in the Netherlands, between a car coming from a minor road, colliding with a car on the major road, the following questions could be asked: Why did the driver of the car coming from the minor road, suddenly accelerate after coming almost to a stop and hit the side of the car from the left at the main road? Why was the approaching car not noticed? Was it because the driver was preoccupied with the two cars coming from the right and the gap before them that offered him thepossibility to cross? Did he look left before, but was his view possibly blocked by the green van parked at the corner? Certainly the traffic situation was not complicated. At the moment of the accident there were no bicyclists or pedestrians present to distract his attention at the regularly overcrowded intersection. The parked green van disappeared within five minutes, the two other cars that may have been important left without a trace. It is hardly possible to observe traffic behavior under the most relevant condition of an accident occurring, because accidents are very rare events, given the large number of trips. Given the new video equipment and the recent developments in automatic incident and accident detection, it becomes more and more realistic to collect such data at not too high costs. Additional to this type of data that is most essential for a good understanding of the risk increasing factors in traffic, it also important to look at normal traffic behavior as a reference base. The question about the possibilities and limitations of accident analysis is not lightly answered. We cannot speak unambiguously about accident analysis. Accident analysis covers a whole range of activities, each originating from a different background and based on different sources of information: national data banks, additional information from other sources, especially collected accident data, behavioral background data etc. To answer the question about the possibilities and limitations, we first have to look at the cycle of activities in the area of traffic safety. Some ofthese activities are mainly concerned with the safety management of the traffic system; some others are primarily research activities.The following steps should be distinguished:- detection of new or remaining safety problems;- description of the problem and its main characteristics;- the analysis of the problem, its causes and suggestions for improvement;- selection and implementation of safety measures;- evaluation of measures taken.Although this cycle can be carried out by the same person or group of persons, the problem has a different (political/managerial or scientific) background at each stage. We will describe the phases in which accident analysis is used. It is important to make this distinction. Many fruitless discussions about the method of analysis result from ignoring this distinction. Politicians, or road managers are not primarily interested in individual accidents. From their perspective accidents are often treated equally, because the total outcome is much more important than the whole chain of events leading to each individual accident. Therefore, each accident counts as one and they add up all together to a final safety result.Researchers are much more interested in the chain of events leading to an individual accident. They want to get detailed information abouteach accident, to detect its causes and the relevant conditions. The politician wants only those details that direct his actions. At the highest level this is the decrease in the total number of accidents. The main source of information is the national database and its statistical treatment. For him, accident analysis is looking at (subgroups of) accident numbers and their statistical fluctuations. This is the main stream of accident analysis as applied in the area of traffic safety. Therefore, we will first describe these aspects of accidents.2. The nature of accidents and their statistical characteristics.The basic notion is that accidents, whatever there cause, appear according to a chance process. Two simple assumptions are usually made to describe this process for (traffic) accidents:- the probability of an accident to occur is independent from the occurrence of previous accidents;-the occurrence of accidents is homogeneous in time.If these two assumptions hold, then accidents are Poisson distributed. The first assumption does not meet much criticism. Accidents are rare events and therefore not easily influenced by previous accidents. In some cases where there is a direct causal chain (e.g. , when a number of cars run into each other) the series of accidents may be regarded as one complicated accident with many cars involved.The assumption does not apply to casualties. Casualties are often related to the same accident andtherefore the independency assumption does not hold. The second assumption seems less obvious at first sight. The occurrence of accidents through time or on different locations are not equally likely. However, the assumption need not hold over long time periods. It is a rather theoretical assumption in its nature. If it holds for short periods of time, then it also holds for long periods, because the sum of Poisson distributed variables, even if their Poisson rates are different, is also Poisson distributed. The Poisson rate for the sum of these periods is then equal to the sum of the Poisson rates for these parts.The assumption that really counts for a comparison of (composite) situations, is whether two outcomes from an aggregation of situations in time and/or space, have a comparable mix of basic situations. E.g. , the comparison of the number of accidents on one particular day of the year, as compared to another day (the next day, or the same day of the next week etc.). If the conditions are assumed to be the same (same duration, same mix of traffic and situations, same weather conditions etc.) then the resulting numbers of accidents are the outcomes of the same Poisson process. This assumption can be tested by estimating the rate parameter on the basis of the two observed values (the estimate being the average of the two values). Probability theory can be used to compute the likelihood of the equality assumption, given the two observations and their mean.This statistical procedure is rather powerful. The Poisson assumptionis investigated many times and turns out to be supported by a vast body of empirical evidence. It has been applied in numerous situations to find out whether differences in observed numbers of accidents suggest real differences in safety. The main purpose of this procedure is to detect differences in safety. This may be a difference over time, or between different places or between different conditions. Such differences may guide the process of improvement. Because the main concern is to reduce the number of accidents, such an analysis may lead to the most promising areas for treatment. A necessary condition for the application of such a test is, that the numbers of accidents to be compared are large enough to show existing differences. In many local cases an application is not possible. Accident black-spot analysis is often hindered by this limitation, e.g., if such a test is applied to find out whether the number of accidents at a particular location is higher than average. The procedure described can also be used if the accidents are classified according to a number of characteristics to find promising safety targets. Not only with aggregation, but also with disaggregation the Poisson assumption holds, and the accident numbers can be tested against each other on the basis of the Poisson assumptions. Such a test is rather cumbersome, because for each particular case, i.e. for each different Poisson parameter, the probabilities for all possible outcomes must be computed to apply the test. In practice, this is not necessary when the numbers are large. Then the Poissondistribution can be approximated by a Normal distribution, with mean and variance equal to the Poisson parameter. Once the mean value and the variance of a Normal distribution are given, all tests can be rephrased in terms of the standard Normal distribution with zero mean and variance one. No computations are necessary any more, but test statistics can be drawn from tables.3. The use of accident statistics for traffic safety policy.The testing procedure described has its merits for those types of analysis that are based on the assumptions mentioned. The best example of such an application is the monitoring of safety for a country or region over a year, using the total number of accidents (eventually of a particular type, such as fatal accidents), in order to compare this number with the outcome of the year before. If sequences of accidents are given over several years, then trends in the developments can be detected and accident numbers predicted for following years. Once such a trend is established, then the value for the next year or years can be predicted, together with its error bounds. Deviations from a given trend can also be tested afterwards, and new actions planned. The most famous one is carried out by Smeed 1949. We will discuss this type of accident analysis in more detail later.(1). The application of the Chi-square test for interaction is generalised to higher order classifications. Foldvary and Lane (1974), inmeasuring the effect of compulsory wearing of seat belts, were among the first who applied the partitioning of the total Chi-square in values for the higher order interactions of four-way tables.(2). Tests are not restricted to overall effects, but Chi-square values can be decomposed regarding sub-hypotheses within the model. Also in the two-way table, the total Chisquare can be decomposed into interaction effects of part tables. The advantage of 1. and 2. over previous situations is, that large numbers of Chi-square tests on many interrelated (sub)tables and corresponding Chi-squares were replaced by one analysis with an exact portioning of one Chi-square.(3). More attention is put to parameter estimation. E.g., the partitioning of the Chi-square made it possible to test for linear or quadratic restraints on the row-parameters or for discontinuities in trends.(4). The unit of analysis is generalised from counts to weighted counts. This is especially advantageous for road safety analyses, where corrections for period of time, number of road users, number of locations or number of vehicle kilometres is often necessary. The last option is not found in many statistical packages. Andersen 1977 gives an example for road safety analysis in a two-way table. A computer programme WPM, developed for this type of analysis of multi-way tables, is available at SWOV (see: De Leeuw and Oppe 1976). The accident analysis at this level is not explanatory. It tries to detect safety problems that need specialattention. The basic information needed consists of accident numbers, to describe the total amount of unsafety, and exposure data to calculate risks and to find situations or (groups of) road users with a high level of risk. 4. Accident analysis for research purposes.Traffic safety research is concerned with the occurrence of accidents and their consequences. Therefore, one might say that the object of research is the accident. The researcher’s interest however is less focused at this final outcome itself, but much more at the process that results (or does not result) in accidents. Therefore, it is better to regard the critical event in traffic as his object of study. One of the major problems in the study of the traffic process that results in accidents is, that the actual occurrence is hardly ever observed by the researcher.Investigating a traffic accident, he will try to reconstruct the event from indirect sources such as the information given by the road users involved, or by eye-witnesses, about the circumstances, the characteristics of the vehicles, the road and the drivers. As such this is not unique in science, there are more examples of an indirect study of the object of research. However, a second difficulty is, that the object of research cannot be evoked. Systematic research by means of controlled experiments is only possible for aspects of the problem, not for the problem itself. The combination of indirect observation and lack of systematic control make it very difficult for the investigator to detectwhich factors, under what circumstances cause an accident. Although the researcher is primarily interested in the process leading to accidents, he has almost exclusively information about the consequences, the product of it, the accident. Furthermore, the context of accidents is complicated. Generally speaking, the following aspects can be distinguished: - Given the state of the traffic system, traffic volume and composition, the manoeuvres of the road users, their speeds, the weather conditions, the condition of the road, the vehicles, the road users and their interactions, accidents can or cannot be prevented.- Given an accident, also depending on a large number of factors, such as the speed and mass of vehicles, the collision angle, the protection of road users and their vulnerability, the location of impact etc., injuries are more or less severe or the material damage is more or less substantial. Although these aspects cannot be studied independently, from a theoretical point of view it has advantages to distinguish the number of situations in traffic that are potentially dangerous, from the probability of having an accident given such a potentially dangerous situation and also from the resulting outcome, given a particular accident.This conceptual framework is the general basis for the formulation of risk regarding the decisions of individual road users as well as the decisions of controllers at higher levels. In the mathematical formulation of risk we need an explicit description of our probability space, consistingof the elementary events (the situations) that may result in accidents, the probability for each type of event to end up in an accident, and finally the particular outcome, the loss, given that type of accident.A different approach is to look at combinations of accident characteristics, to find critical factors. This type of analysis may be carried out at the total group of accidents or at subgroups. The accident itself may be the unit of research, but also a road, a road location, a road design (e.g. a roundabout) etc.中文译文交通事故分析的可能性和局限性S.Oppe摘要交通事故的统计数字, 尤其国家一级的数据对监控和预测事故的发展, 积极或消极检测事故的发展, 以及对定义安全目标和评估工业安全特别有益。
外文文献译文——参考范例
本科毕业设计（论文）外文参考文献译文及原文学院自动化学院专业电气工程及其自动化（电力系统自动化方向）年级班别2011级3班学号学生姓名指导教师2015年3月10日通过对磁场的分析改进超高压变电站扩展连接器的设计Joan Hernández-Guiteras a, Jordi-Roger Ribaa,⇑, LuísRomeralba UniversitatPolitècnica de Catalunya, Electrical Engineering Department, 08222 Terrassa, Spainb UniversitatPolitècnica de Catalunya, Electronic Engineering Department, 08222 Terrassa, Spain摘要：在世界上很多的国家，电力需求的增长比输电容量的发展更快。
由于环境的限制、社会的担忧以及经济上的投入，建设新的输电线路是一项严峻的挑战。
除此以外，输电网经常要承担接近额定容量的负载。
因此，提高输电系统的效率和可靠性受到了关注。
这项研究主要针对一个400KV，3000A，50Hz的超高压变电站扩展连接器，用于连接两个母线直径均为150mm的变电站。
该变电站连接器是一个四线制的铝导线，为母线之间的相互电能传输提供了路径。
前期的初步试验显示：电流在输电线路中的不平衡分布，主要是受到了距离的影响。
应用一个三维的有限元素法，可以改进设计，以及对改进前后两个版本的连接器的电磁性能和热性能进行评估比较。
这份报告中将提出：在实验室条件下的检验已经验证了仿真方法的准确性。
这也许将会是促进变电站连接器设计进程的一个很有价值的工具。
因此，将不仅仅提高其热性能，还将提高其可靠性。
关键词：变电站连接器、超高压、电力传输系统、有限单元法、数值模拟、临近效应、热学分析1.引入全球能源需求的频繁增长，连同分散的和可再生能源份额的增长促进超高压和特高压电力传输系统[1]的建设和研究。