财务风险中英文对照外文翻译文献
财务风险管理外文文献翻译
文献出处: Sharifi, Omid. International Journal of Information, Business and Management6.2 (May 2014): 82-94.原文Financial Risk Management for Small and Medium Sized Enterprises(SMES)Omid SharifiMBA, Department of Commerce and Business Management,Kakatiya University, House No. 2-1-664, Sarawathi negar,1．ABSTRACTmedium sized Enterprises (SME) do also face business risks, Similar to large companies, Small and Mwhich in worst case can cause financial distress and lead to bankruptcy. However, although SME are a major part of the India and also international - economy, research mainly focused on risk management in large corporations. Therefore the aim of this paper is to suggest a possible mean for the risk identification, analysis and monitoring, which can be applied by SME to manage their internal financial risks. For this purpose the financial analysis, which has been used in research to identify indicators for firm bankruptcy, was chosen. The data required for the study was collected from Annual report of the Intec Capital Limited. For the period of five years, from 2008 to 2012.the findings showed the data and the overview can be used in SME risk management.Keywords: Annual report, Small and Medium sized Enterprises, Financial Risks, Risk Management.2．INTRUDUCTIONSmall and medium sized enterprises (SME) differ from large corporations among other aspects first of all in their size. Their importance in the economy however is large . SME sector of India is considered as the backbone of economy contributing to 45% of the industrial output, 40% of India’s exports, employing 60 million people,create 1.3 million jobs every year and produce more than 8000 quality products for the Indian and international markets. With approximately 30 million SMEs in India, 12 million people expected to join the workforce in next 3 years and the sector growing at a rate of 8% per year, Government of India is taking different measures so as to increase their competitiveness in the international market. There are several factors that have contributed towards the growth of Indian SMEs.Few of these include; funding of SMEs by local and foreign investors, the new technology that is used in the market is assisting SMEs add considerable value to their business, various trade directories and trade portals help facilitate trade between buyer and supplier and thus reducing the barrier to trade With this huge potential, backed up by strong government support; Indian SMEs continue to post their growth stories. Despite of this strong growth, there is huge potential amongst Indian SMEs that still remains untapped. Once this untapped potential becomes the source for growth of these units, there would be no stopping to India posting a GDP higher than that of US and China and becoming the world’s economic powerhouse.3. RESEARCH QUESTIONRisk and economic activity are inseparable. Every business decision and entrepreneurial act is connected with risk. This applies also to business of small andmedium sized enterprises as they are also facing several and often the same risks as bigger companies. In a real business environment with market imperfections they need to manage those risks in order to secure their business continuity and add additional value by avoiding or reducing transaction costs and cost of financial distress or bankruptcy. However, risk management is a challenge for most SME. In contrast to larger companies they often lack the necessary resources, with regard to manpower, databases and specialty of knowledge to perform a standardized and structured risk management. The result is that many smaller companies do not perform sufficient analysis to identify their risk. This aspect is exacerbated due to a lack in literature about methods for risk management in SME, as stated by Henschel: The two challenging aspects with regard to risk management in SME are therefore:1. SME differ from large corporations in many characteristics2. The existing research lacks a focus on risk management in SMEThe following research question will be central to this work:1.how can SME manage their internal financial risk?2.Which aspects, based on their characteristics, have to be taken into account for this?3.Which mean fulfils the requirements and can be applied to SME?4. LITERATURE REVIEWIn contrast to larger corporations, in SME one of the owners is often part of the management team. His intuition and experience are important for managing the company.Therefore, in small companies, the (owner-) manager is often responsible for many different tasks and important decisions. Most SME do not have the necessary resources to employ specialists on every position in the company. They focus on their core business and have generalists for the administrative functions. Behr and Guttler find that SME on average have equity ratios lower than 20%. The different characteristics of management, position on procurement and capital markets and the legal framework need to be taken into account when applying management instruments like risk management. Therefore the risk management techniques of larger corporations cannot easily be applied to SME.In practice it can therefore be observed that although SME are not facing less risks and uncertainties than largecompanies, their risk management differs from the practices in larger companies. The latter have the resources to employ a risk manager and a professional, structured and standardized risk management system. In contrast to that, risk management in SME differs in the degree of implementation and the techniques applied. Jonen & Simgen-Weber With regard to firm size and the use of risk management. Beyer, Hachmeister & Lampenius observe in a study from 2010 that increasing firm size among SME enhances the use of risk management. This observation matches with the opinion of nearly 10% of SME, which are of the opinion, that risk management is only reasonable in larger corporations. Beyer, Hachmeister & Lampenius find that most of the surveyed SME identify risks with help of statistics, checklists, creativity and scenario analyses. reveals similar findings and state that most companies rely on key figure systems for identifying and evaluating the urgency of business risks. That small firms face higher costs of hedging than larger corporations. This fact is reducing the benefits from hedging and therefore he advises to evaluate the usage of hedging for each firm individually. The lacking expertise to decide about hedges in SME is also identified by Eckbo, According to his findings, smaller companies often lack the understanding and management capacities needed to use those instruments.5. METHODOLOGY5.1. USE OF FINANCIAL ANALYSIS IN SME RISK MANAGEMENTHow financial analysis can be used in SME risk management?5.1.1 Development of financial risk overview for SMEThe following sections show the development of the financial risk overview. After presenting the framework, the different ratios will be discussed to finally presenta selection of suitable ratios and choose appropriate comparison data.5.1.2. Framework for financial risk overviewThe idea is to use a set of ratios in an overview as the basis for the financial risk management.This provides even more information than the analysis of historical data and allows reacting fast on critical developments and managing the identified risks. However not only the internal data can be used for the risk management. In additionto that also the information available in the papers can be used.Some of them state average values for the defaulted or bankrupt companies one year prior bankruptcy -and few papers also for a longer time horizon. Those values can be used as a comparison value to evaluate the risk situation of the company. For this an appropriate set of ratios has to be chosen.The ratios, which will be included in the overview and analysis sheet, should fulfill two main requirements. First of all they should match the main financial risks of the company in order to deliver significant information and not miss an important risk factor. Secondly the ratios need to be relevant in two different ways. On the one hand they should be applicable independently of other ratios. This means that they also deliver useful information when not used in a regression, as it is applied in many of the papers. On the other hand to be appropriate to use them, the ratios need to show a different development for healthy companies than for those under financial distress. The difference between the values of the two groups should be large enough to see into which the observed company belongs.5.1.3. Evaluation of ratios for financial risk overviewWhen choosing ratios from the different categories, it needs to be evaluated which ones are the most appropriate ones. For this some comparison values are needed in order to see whether the ratios show different values and developments for the two groups of companies. The most convenient source for the comparison values are the research papers as their values are based on large samples of annual reports and by providing average values outweigh outliers in the data. Altman shows a table with the values for 8 different ratios for the five years prior bankruptcy of which he uses 5, while Porporato & Sandin use 13 ratios in their model and Ohlson bases his evaluation on 9 figures and ratios [10]. Khong, Ong & Yap and Cerovac & Ivicic also show the difference in ratios between the two groups, however only directly before bankruptcy and not as a development over time [9]. Therefore this information is not as valuable as the others ([4][15]).In summary, the main internal financial risks in a SME should be covered by financial structure, liquidity and profitability ratios, which are the main categories ofratios applied in the research papers.Financial structureA ratio used in many of the papers is the total debt to total assets ratio, analyzing the financial structure of the company. Next to the papers of Altman, Ohlson and Porporato & Sandin also Khong, Ong & Yap and Cerovac & Ivicic show comparison values for this ratio. Those demonstrate a huge difference in size between the bankrupt and non-bankrupt groups.Figure 1: Development of total debt/ total assets ratioData source: Altman (1968), Porporato & Sandin (2007) and Ohlson (1980), author’s illustrationTherefore the information of total debt/total assets is more reliable and should rather be used for the overview. The other ratios analyzing the financial structure are only used in one of the papers and except for one the reference data only covers the last year before bankruptcy. Therefore a time trend cannot be detected and their relevance cannot be approved.Cost of debtThe costs of debt are another aspect of the financing risk. Porporato & Sandin use the variable interest payments/EBIT for measuring the debt costs. The variable shows how much of the income before tax and interest is spend to finance the debt. This variable also shows a clear trend when firms approach bankruptcy.LiquidityThe ratio used in all five papers to measure liquidity is the current ratio, showingthe relation between current liabilities and current assets (with slight differences in the definition). Instead of the current ratio, a liquidity ratio setting the difference between current assets and current liabilities, also defined as working capital, into relation with total assets could be used.Figure 2: Development of working capital / total assets ratioData source: Altman (1968) and Ohlson (1980); author’s illustratioBasically the ratio says whether the firm would be able to pay back all its’ current liabilities by using its’ current assets. In case it is not able to, which is wh en the liabilities exceed the assets, there is an insolvency risk.6. CRITICAL REVIEW AND CONCLUSIONWhen doing business, constantly decisions have to be made, whose outcome is not certain and thus connected with risk. In order to successfully cope with this uncertainty, corporate risk management is necessary in a business environment, which is influenced by market frictions. Different approaches and methods can be found for applying such a risk management. However, those mainly focus on large corporations, though they are the minority of all companies[13].Furthermore the approaches often require the use of statistical software and expert knowledge, which is most often not available in SME. They and their requirements for risk management have mainly been neglected [17][13].This also includes the internal financial risk management, which was in the focus of this paper. Due to the existing risks in SME and their differences to larger corporations as well as the lack of suitable risk management suggestions in theory, there is a need for a suggestion for a financial risk management in SME. Theaim was to find a possible mean for the risk identification, analysis and monitoring, which can be applied by SME to manage their internal financial risks. For this purpose the financial analysis, which has been used in research to identify indicators for firm bankruptcy, was chosen. Based on an examination and analysis of different papers, despite of their different models, many similarities in the applied ratios could be identified. In general the papers focus on three categories of risk, namely liquidity, profitability and solvency, which are in accordance to the main internal financial risks of SME. From the ratios the most appropriate ones with regard to their effectiveness in identifying risks.译文中小企业的财务风险管理奥米德沙利菲1、摘要中小型企业(SME)和大型企业一样，也面临着业务风险，在最糟糕的情况下，可能会导致金融危机，甚至破产。
财务风险管理外文文献翻译
文献出处: Sharifi, Omid. International Journal of Information, Business and Management6.2 (May 2014): 82-94.原文Financial Risk Management for Small and Medium Sized Enterprises(SMES)Omid SharifiMBA, Department of Commerce and Business Management,Kakatiya University, House No. 2-1-664, Sarawathi negar,1．ABSTRACTmedium sized Enterprises (SME) do also face business risks, Similar to large companies, Small and Mwhich in worst case can cause financial distress and lead to bankruptcy. However, although SME are a major part of the India and also international - economy, research mainly focused on risk management in large corporations. Therefore the aim of this paper is to suggest a possible mean for the risk identification, analysis and monitoring, which can be applied by SME to manage their internal financial risks. For this purpose the financial analysis, which has been used in research to identify indicators for firm bankruptcy, was chosen. The data required for the study was collected from Annual report of the Intec Capital Limited. For the period of five years, from 2008 to 2012.the findings showed the data and the overview can be used in SME risk management.Keywords: Annual report, Small and Medium sized Enterprises, Financial Risks, Risk Management.2．INTRUDUCTIONSmall and medium sized enterprises (SME) differ from large corporations among other aspects first of all in their size. Their importance in the economy however is large . SME sector of India is considered as the backbone of economy contributing to 45% of the industrial output, 40% of India’s exports, employing 60 million people,create 1.3 million jobs every year and produce more than 8000 quality products for the Indian and international markets. With approximately 30 million SMEs in India, 12 million people expected to join the workforce in next 3 years and the sector growing at a rate of 8% per year, Government of India is taking different measures so as to increase their competitiveness in the international market. There are several factors that have contributed towards the growth of Indian SMEs.Few of these include; funding of SMEs by local and foreign investors, the new technology that is used in the market is assisting SMEs add considerable value to their business, various trade directories and trade portals help facilitate trade between buyer and supplier and thus reducing the barrier to trade With this huge potential, backed up by strong government support; Indian SMEs continue to post their growth stories. Despite of this strong growth, there is huge potential amongst Indian SMEs that still remains untapped. Once this untapped potential becomes the source for growth of these units, there would be no stopping to India posting a GDP higher than that of US and China and becoming the world’s economic powerhouse.3. RESEARCH QUESTIONRisk and economic activity are inseparable. Every business decision and entrepreneurial act is connected with risk. This applies also to business of small andmedium sized enterprises as they are also facing several and often the same risks as bigger companies. In a real business environment with market imperfections they need to manage those risks in order to secure their business continuity and add additional value by avoiding or reducing transaction costs and cost of financial distress or bankruptcy. However, risk management is a challenge for most SME. In contrast to larger companies they often lack the necessary resources, with regard to manpower, databases and specialty of knowledge to perform a standardized and structured risk management. The result is that many smaller companies do not perform sufficient analysis to identify their risk. This aspect is exacerbated due to a lack in literature about methods for risk management in SME, as stated by Henschel: The two challenging aspects with regard to risk management in SME are therefore:1. SME differ from large corporations in many characteristics2. The existing research lacks a focus on risk management in SMEThe following research question will be central to this work:1.how can SME manage their internal financial risk?2.Which aspects, based on their characteristics, have to be taken into account for this?3.Which mean fulfils the requirements and can be applied to SME?4. LITERATURE REVIEWIn contrast to larger corporations, in SME one of the owners is often part of the management team. His intuition and experience are important for managing the company.Therefore, in small companies, the (owner-) manager is often responsible for many different tasks and important decisions. Most SME do not have the necessary resources to employ specialists on every position in the company. They focus on their core business and have generalists for the administrative functions. Behr and Guttler find that SME on average have equity ratios lower than 20%. The different characteristics of management, position on procurement and capital markets and the legal framework need to be taken into account when applying management instruments like risk management. Therefore the risk management techniques of larger corporations cannot easily be applied to SME.In practice it can therefore be observed that although SME are not facing less risks and uncertainties than largecompanies, their risk management differs from the practices in larger companies. The latter have the resources to employ a risk manager and a professional, structured and standardized risk management system. In contrast to that, risk management in SME differs in the degree of implementation and the techniques applied. Jonen & Simgen-Weber With regard to firm size and the use of risk management. Beyer, Hachmeister & Lampenius observe in a study from 2010 that increasing firm size among SME enhances the use of risk management. This observation matches with the opinion of nearly 10% of SME, which are of the opinion, that risk management is only reasonable in larger corporations. Beyer, Hachmeister & Lampenius find that most of the surveyed SME identify risks with help of statistics, checklists, creativity and scenario analyses. reveals similar findings and state that most companies rely on key figure systems for identifying and evaluating the urgency of business risks. That small firms face higher costs of hedging than larger corporations. This fact is reducing the benefits from hedging and therefore he advises to evaluate the usage of hedging for each firm individually. The lacking expertise to decide about hedges in SME is also identified by Eckbo, According to his findings, smaller companies often lack the understanding and management capacities needed to use those instruments.5. METHODOLOGY5.1. USE OF FINANCIAL ANALYSIS IN SME RISK MANAGEMENTHow financial analysis can be used in SME risk management?5.1.1 Development of financial risk overview for SMEThe following sections show the development of the financial risk overview. After presenting the framework, the different ratios will be discussed to finally presenta selection of suitable ratios and choose appropriate comparison data.5.1.2. Framework for financial risk overviewThe idea is to use a set of ratios in an overview as the basis for the financial risk management.This provides even more information than the analysis of historical data and allows reacting fast on critical developments and managing the identified risks. However not only the internal data can be used for the risk management. In additionto that also the information available in the papers can be used.Some of them state average values for the defaulted or bankrupt companies one year prior bankruptcy -and few papers also for a longer time horizon. Those values can be used as a comparison value to evaluate the risk situation of the company. For this an appropriate set of ratios has to be chosen.The ratios, which will be included in the overview and analysis sheet, should fulfill two main requirements. First of all they should match the main financial risks of the company in order to deliver significant information and not miss an important risk factor. Secondly the ratios need to be relevant in two different ways. On the one hand they should be applicable independently of other ratios. This means that they also deliver useful information when not used in a regression, as it is applied in many of the papers. On the other hand to be appropriate to use them, the ratios need to show a different development for healthy companies than for those under financial distress. The difference between the values of the two groups should be large enough to see into which the observed company belongs.5.1.3. Evaluation of ratios for financial risk overviewWhen choosing ratios from the different categories, it needs to be evaluated which ones are the most appropriate ones. For this some comparison values are needed in order to see whether the ratios show different values and developments for the two groups of companies. The most convenient source for the comparison values are the research papers as their values are based on large samples of annual reports and by providing average values outweigh outliers in the data. Altman shows a table with the values for 8 different ratios for the five years prior bankruptcy of which he uses 5, while Porporato & Sandin use 13 ratios in their model and Ohlson bases his evaluation on 9 figures and ratios [10]. Khong, Ong & Yap and Cerovac & Ivicic also show the difference in ratios between the two groups, however only directly before bankruptcy and not as a development over time [9]. Therefore this information is not as valuable as the others ([4][15]).In summary, the main internal financial risks in a SME should be covered by financial structure, liquidity and profitability ratios, which are the main categories ofratios applied in the research papers.Financial structureA ratio used in many of the papers is the total debt to total assets ratio, analyzing the financial structure of the company. Next to the papers of Altman, Ohlson and Porporato & Sandin also Khong, Ong & Yap and Cerovac & Ivicic show comparison values for this ratio. Those demonstrate a huge difference in size between the bankrupt and non-bankrupt groups.Figure 1: Development of total debt/ total assets ratioData source: Altman (1968), Porporato & Sandin (2007) and Ohlson (1980), author’s illustrationTherefore the information of total debt/total assets is more reliable and should rather be used for the overview. The other ratios analyzing the financial structure are only used in one of the papers and except for one the reference data only covers the last year before bankruptcy. Therefore a time trend cannot be detected and their relevance cannot be approved.Cost of debtThe costs of debt are another aspect of the financing risk. Porporato & Sandin use the variable interest payments/EBIT for measuring the debt costs. The variable shows how much of the income before tax and interest is spend to finance the debt. This variable also shows a clear trend when firms approach bankruptcy.LiquidityThe ratio used in all five papers to measure liquidity is the current ratio, showingthe relation between current liabilities and current assets (with slight differences in the definition). Instead of the current ratio, a liquidity ratio setting the difference between current assets and current liabilities, also defined as working capital, into relation with total assets could be used.Figure 2: Development of working capital / total assets ratioData source: Altman (1968) and Ohlson (1980); author’s illustratioBasically the ratio says whether the firm would be able to pay back all its’ current liabilities by using its’ current assets. In case it is not able to, which is wh en the liabilities exceed the assets, there is an insolvency risk.6. CRITICAL REVIEW AND CONCLUSIONWhen doing business, constantly decisions have to be made, whose outcome is not certain and thus connected with risk. In order to successfully cope with this uncertainty, corporate risk management is necessary in a business environment, which is influenced by market frictions. Different approaches and methods can be found for applying such a risk management. However, those mainly focus on large corporations, though they are the minority of all companies[13].Furthermore the approaches often require the use of statistical software and expert knowledge, which is most often not available in SME. They and their requirements for risk management have mainly been neglected [17][13].This also includes the internal financial risk management, which was in the focus of this paper. Due to the existing risks in SME and their differences to larger corporations as well as the lack of suitable risk management suggestions in theory, there is a need for a suggestion for a financial risk management in SME. Theaim was to find a possible mean for the risk identification, analysis and monitoring, which can be applied by SME to manage their internal financial risks. For this purpose the financial analysis, which has been used in research to identify indicators for firm bankruptcy, was chosen. Based on an examination and analysis of different papers, despite of their different models, many similarities in the applied ratios could be identified. In general the papers focus on three categories of risk, namely liquidity, profitability and solvency, which are in accordance to the main internal financial risks of SME. From the ratios the most appropriate ones with regard to their effectiveness in identifying risks.译文中小企业的财务风险管理奥米德沙利菲1、摘要中小型企业(SME)和大型企业一样，也面临着业务风险，在最糟糕的情况下，可能会导致金融危机，甚至破产。
财务风险【外文翻译】
外文翻译原文Financial RiskMaterialSource:EssentialofFinancialRiskManagement Author:KarenA.H o r c h e r : Althoughfinancialriskhasincreasedsignificantlyinrecentyears,riskandriskmanagementarenotcontemporary issues.Theresult ofincreasingly global marketsisthatriskmayoriginatewitheventsthousands of miles away that have nothing rmationisavailableinstantaneously,whichmeansthatchange,andsubsequ entmarketreactions,occurveryquickly.Theeconomicclimateandmarketscan beaffected very quickly by changes inexchangerates,interestrates,andcommodityprices.Asaresult,it is importanttoensurefinancial risksareidentifiedandmanagedappropriately. Preparationis a keycomponentoffinancial riskmanagement.Riskprovides thebasis for opportunity. The terms risk and exposure havesubtle differences in their meaning. Risk refers to the probability of loss, whileexposure is the possibility of loss, although they are often used interchangeably.Riskarisesasaresultofexposure.Exposure to financial markets affects most organizations, either directly orindirectly.Whenanorganizationhasfinancialmarketexposure,thereisa possibilityof l oss bu t a l so a n opp ortu n i ty for g a in orprofit.R i sk i s the l ik el i ho od o f l osse s re su l ti ng from e v ents su c h a s cha ng e s in m a rketprices.Eventswitha lowprobability ofoccurring,butthatmay resultina highloss,areparticularly troublesomebecausetheyareoftennotanticipated.Since it is not always possible or desirable to eliminate financial risk,understandingitis an important step in determining how to manage it.Identifyingexposuresandrisksformsthebasis for an appropriate financial risk managementstrategy.Financial risk arises through countless transactions of a financial nature,including sales and purchases, investments and loans, and various other businessactivities,Whenpriceschangedramatically,itcanincreasecosts,reducerevenues,orotherwise adversely impact the profitability of an organization. Financialfluctuationsmay make itmoredifficulttoplanandbudgetprice goodsandservices,andallocatecapital.Therearethreemainsourcesoffinancialrisk:first,financialrisks arisingfrom an organizati on’s exposuretochanges in marketprices,such as interestrates,exchange rates, and commodity prices, second, financial risk arising from theactions of , and transaction with, other organizations such as vendors,customers,andcounterpartiesinderivativestransactions,third,financialrisksresultingfrominter nalactions or failures of the organization, particularly people, processes, andsystems.Financialriskmanagementis aprocess to deal with theuncertaintiesresultingfrom financial markets. It involves assessing the financial risks facing anorganization and developing management strategies consistent with internalpriorities and policies. Addressing financial risks proactively may provide anorganization with a competitive advantage. It also ensures that management,operational staff, stakeholder, and the board of directorsare in agreementon keyissuesofrisk.Managing financial risk necessitates making organizational decisions aboutrisksthatareacceptable versus thosethatarenot.Thepassive strategy oftakingnoactionistheacceptanceofallrisksbydefault.Organizationsmanagefinancialriskusingavarietyofstrategies.Itisimportanttounderstandhowthesestrategiesworktoreduceriskwi thinthecontextof theorganiza tion’s risktoleranceandobjectives.The ability to estimate the likelihood ofa financial loss is highly desirable.However, standard theories of probability often fail in the analysis of financialmarkets.Risks usually do not exist in isolation, and the interactions of severalexposures may have to be considered in developing an understanding of howfinancialriskarises.Sometimes,theseinteractions are difficult to forecast, sincetheyultimately dependonhumanbehavior.Theprocessoffinancialriskmanagementis anongoingone.Strategiesneedtobeimplementedand refinedas the marketand requirements change. R efinementsmay reflect changing expectations about market rates, changes to the businessenvironment,orchanginginternationalpoliticalconditions,forexample.Ingeneral,theprocessca nbe summarizedasfollows: first,identify andprioritizekey financialrisks ,second,determinean appropriatelevel ofrisk tolerance, third,implementriskmanagementstrategyinaccordance with policy, last, measure, report,monitor,andrefineasneeded.Major market risks arise out of changes to financial market prices such asexchangerates,interestrates,andcommodityprices.Majormarketrisksareusuallythemostobvioustypeoffinancialriskthatanorganizationfaces.Majormar ketrisksincludeforeignexchangerisk,interestraterisk,commodity price risk, equity pricerisk. Other important related financial risks include credit risk, operational risk,liquidityrisk,systemicrisk.T he intera ctions of sev era l ri sk s ca n a l ter or m a g n i fy the potentia l i m pa ct to anorganization.Forexample,an organizationmayhavebothcommoditypriceriskandforeign exchange risk, If both markets become adversely, the organization maysuffersignificantlossesasaresult.Therearetwocomponentstoassessingfinancialrisk,Thefirstcomponentisanunderstandingofpotentiallossas a result ofa particular rate orprice change,Thesecondcomponentisanestimateofheprobability ofsuchan eventoccurring.Interestrateriskarisesfromseveralsources,includingchangesinthe levelofinterest rates(absolute interest rate risk), changes in the shape of the yieldcurve(yield curve risk), mismatches between and the risk management strategiesundertaken(basisrisk).Intere st ra te ri sk a ffe c ts m a ny org a ni za ti ons, both borrow e r s a nd inv e stors, anditparticularlyaffectscapital-intensiveindustriesandsectors.C ha ng e s a ffe ct borrow ers throu g h the c o st of fu nd s, F or e x a m pl e, a c orporateborrowerthatutilizesfloatinginterestratedebtisexposedtorisinginterestratesthatcouldincrease thecompany’s costoffunds,A portfolio offixed income securities has exposure tointerestrates through bothchanges inyieldandgainsorlosses ona ssets held.Absoluteinterestraterisk resultsfromthepossibilityofadirectional, orup ordown,changeininterestrates.Mostorganizationsmonitorabsoluteinterestrateriskintheirriskassessment s,duetobothitsvisibility and its potential for affectingprofita bility.From aborrower’s p erspective,risinginterestrates mightresult inhigherprojectcostsandchangestofinancingorstrategicplans.Fromaninvestororlenderperspective,a decline in interest rates results in lower interest income given thesameinvestment,oralternatively,inadequatereturnoninvestmentsheld.Themostcommonmethodofhedgingabsoluteinterestrateriskis tomatch theduration of assets and liabilities, or replace floating interest rate borrowing orinvestmentswithfixed interest rate debtor investments. Another alternative is tohedgetheinterestrateriskwithtoolssuchasforwardrate agreements,swaps andintere st ra te ca ps, fl oors, a nd c olla r s.Yield curve risk results from changes in the relationship between short-termandlong-terminterestrates. In a normal interest rate environment,the yield curvehasanupward-sloping shape to it. Longer-term interest rates are higher thanshorter-terminterestratesbecause of higher risk to the lender. The steepening offlatteningoftheyieldcurvechangestheinterestratedifferentialbetween maturities,whichcanimpactborrowingandinvestmentdecisionsandthereforeprofitability.Inaninvertedyieldcurveenvironment,demandforshort-termfundspushesshort-termrates above long-termrates.The yieldcurve may appear inverted or flatacrossmostmaturities,oralternativelyonlyincertainmaturitysegments.Insuchanenvironment, ratesoflongertermstomaturitymaybeimpactedlessthanshortertermstomaturity.Whenthereisamismatchbetweenanorg anization’s a ssetsand liabilities,yieldcurverisk should beassessedasacomponentoftheorganizatio n’s intere st ra te ri sk.Creditriskisoneofthemostprevalentrisksoffinanceandbusiness,Ingeneral,creditriskisaconcernwhe nanorganizationisowedmoney ormustrely onanotherorg a niza tion to m a k e a pa y m ent to i t or o n i ts be ha l f. T he fa i lu re of a c ou nte rpa rty i sle s s of a n i s su e w he n the o rg a ni za ti on i s not ow ed m one y on a n et ba si s, a l thou g h i tdependstoa certaindegreeonthelegalenvironmentandwhetherfundsareowedonanetoraggregate basis on individual contracts.The deteriorationofcreditquality,suchasthatofa securitiesissuer,isalsoa sourceofriskthroughthereduced marketvalueofsecuritiesthatanorganizationmightown.C re dit ri sk increa se s a s ti m e to ex piry, ti m e to settl e m e nt, or ti m e to m a tu rityincrease,Themoveby international regulatorstoshorten settlementtime forcertaintypesofsecuritiestradesisaneffortto reduce systemic risk, whichinturnisbasedontheriskofindividualmarketparticipants.Italsoincreasesinan environmentofrisinginterestratesorpooreconomicfundamentals.Organization are exposed to credit risk through all business and financialtransactionsthat depend on the payment or fulfillment of obligations of others,Creditrisk that arises from exposure to a counterparty, such as in a derivativestransaction,isoftenknownascounterpartyrisk.Foreignexchange risk arises through transaction, translation, and economicexposures.It mayalsoarise from commodity-basedtransactionswhere commoditypricesaredeterminedandtradedinanothercurrency.Itincludestransactionrisk,translationrisk andstrategic risk. Transaction riskimpactsan organizatio n’s profitability throughtheincome statement.Itarises from theordinary transactionsofan organization, including purchases from suppliers and vendors, contractualpaymentsinother currencies, royalties of license fees, and sales to customers anizationsthat buyorsell productsandservicesdenominatedina foreigncurrency typically havetransactionexposure.M a na g e m e nt of tra nsa ction ri sk ca n be a n i m porta nt de te rm ina ntofcompetitivenessinaglobaleconomy.Therearefewcorporationswhosebusinessisnotaffected,eitherdirectlyorindirectly,by transactionrisk.Translationrisktraditionallyreferredto fluctuationsresult fromtheaccountingtranslationoffinancialstatement,particularly assetsand liabilities on the balancesheet. Translation exposure results wherever assets, liabilities, or profits aretranslated fromthe operatingcurrency intoa reportingcurrency.From another perspective, translation exposure affects an organization byaffectingthevalue offoreigncurrency balancesheetitems suchasaccountspayableand receivable, foreign currency cash and deposits, and foreign currency debt.Longer-term assetsand liabilities, such as thoseassociatedwith foreign operations,arelikely tobeparticularly impacted.The location and activities of major competitors may be an importantdeterminantof foreignexchangeexposure.Strategicoreconomicexposureaffectsanorganization’s c ompetitive positionas a result ofchanges in exchange rates. Economicexposure,suchasdecliningsalesfrominternationalcustomers,do notshow u p o n the ba l a n c e shee t, thou g h their i m pa ct a ppea rs i n i ncom e s ta tements.For example, a firm whose domestic currency has appreciated dramaticallymayfinditsproductsaretooexpensiveininternational marketsdespiteitseffortstoreducecostofproductionandminimizeprices.Thepricesofgoodexportedbyth efirm’s c ompetitors,whoarecoincidentallylocatedina weak-currency environment,becomecheaperbycomparisonwithoutanyactionontheirpart.译文财务风险资料来源：财务风险管理的核心作者：凯伦 A 哈克尽管在近几年，财务风险问题表现得越来越显著，但风险与风险管理并不只是当前的话题。
中小企业的财务风险管理外文文献翻译2014年译文3000字
中小企业的财务风险管理外文文献翻译2014年译文3000字Financial Risk Management for Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs)Financial risk management is an essential aspect of business management。
particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs)。
SMEs face numerous financial risks。
including credit risk。
market risk。
liquidity risk。
and nal risk。
which can significantly impact their financial stability and growth prospects。
Therefore。
the effective management of financial risks is crucialfor SMEs to survive and thrive in today's competitive business environment.One of the primary challenges for SMEs in managing financial risks is their limited resources and expertise。
Unlike large ns。
SMEs often lack the financial resources and specialized staff to develop and implement comprehensive risk management strategies。
As a result。
公司财务风险中英文对照外文翻译文献
中英文资料外文翻译外文资料Financial firm bankruptcy and systemic riskIn Fall 2008 when the Federal Reserve and the Treasury injected $85 billion into the insurance behemoth American International Group (AIG), themoney lent to AIGwent straight to counterparties, and very few funds remained with the insurer. Among the largest recipients was Goldman Sachs, to whomabout $12 billionwas paid to undoAIG’s credit default swaps (CDSs). The bailout plan focused on repaying the debt by slowly selling off AIG’s assets, w ith no intention of maintaining jobs or allowing the CDSmarket to continue to function as before. Thus, the government’s effort to avoid systemic risk with AIG was mainly about ensuring that firms with which AIG had done business did not fail as a result. T he concerns are obviously greatest vis-a-vis CDSs, ofwhich AIG had over $400 billion contracts outstanding in June 2008.In contrast, the government was much less enthusiastic about aiding General Motors, presumably because they believed its failure would not cause major macroeconomic repercussions by imposing losses on related firms. This decision is consistent with the view in macroeconomicresearch that financialfirmbankruptcies pose a greater amount of systemic risk than nonfinancial firmbankruptcies. For example, Bordo and Haubrich (2009) conclude that “...more severe financial events are associated withmore severe recessions...” Likewise, Bernanke (1983) argues the Great Depressionwas so severe because ofweakness in the banking systemthat affected the amount of credit available for investment. Bernanke et al. (1999) hypothesize a financial accelerator mechanism, whereby distress in one sector of the economy leads to more precarious balance sheets and tighter credit conditions. This in turn leads to a drop in investment, which is followed by less lending and a widespread downturn. Were shocks to the economy always to come in the form of distress at nonfinancial firms, these authors argue that the business downturns would not be so severe.We argue instead that the contagious impact of a nonfinancial firm’s bankruptcy is expected to be far larger than that of a financial firm like AIG, although neither would be catastrophic to the U.S. economy through counterparty risk channels. This is not to say that an episode ofwidespread financial distress among our largest banks would not be followed by an especially severe recession, only that such failures would not cause a recession or affect the depth of a recession. Rather such bankruptcies are symptomatic of common factors in portfolios that lead to wealth losses regardless of whether any firm files for bankruptcy.Pervasive financial fragility may occur because the failure of one firm leads to the failure of other firms which cascades through the system (e.g., Davis and Lo, 1999; Jarrow and Yu, 2001). Or systemic risk may wreak havoc when a number of financial firms fail simultaneously, as in the Great Depression when more than 9000 banks failed (Benston, 1986). In the former case, the failure of one firm, such as AIG, Lehman Brothers or Bear Stearns, could lead to widespread failure through financial contracts such as CDSs. In the latter case, the fact that so many financial institutions have failed means that both the money supply and the amount of credit in the economy could fall so far as to cause a large drop in economic activity (Friedman and Schwartz, 1971).While a weak financial systemcould cause a recession, the recession would not arise because one firm was allowed to file bankruptcy. Further, should one or the other firmgo bankrupt, the nonfinancial firmwould have the greater impact on the economy.Such extreme real effects that appear to be the result of financial firm fragility have led to a large emphasis on the prevention of systemic risk problems by regulators. Foremost amo ng these policies is “too big to fail” (TBTF), the logic of which is that the failure of a large financial institution will have ramifications for other financial institutions and therefore the risk to the economywould be enormous. TBTF was behind the Fed’s decisions to orchestrate the merger of Bear Stearns and J.P.Morgan Chase in 2008, its leadership in the restructuring of bank loans owed by Long Term Capital Management (LTCM), and its decision to prop up AIG. TBTF may be justified if the outcome is preven tion of a major downswing in the economy. However, if the systemic risks in these episodes have been exaggerated or the salutary effects of these actions overestimated, then the cost to the efficiency of the capital allocation system may far outweigh any po tential benefits from attempting to avoid another Great Depression.No doubt, no regulator wants to take the chance of standing down while watching over another systemic risk crisis, sowe do not have the ability to examine empiricallywhat happens to the economy when regulators back off. There are very fewinstances in themodern history of the U.S.where regulators allowed the bankruptcy of amajor financial firm.Most recently,we can point to the bankruptcy of Lehman,which the Fed pointedly allowed to fail.However,with only one obvious casewhere TBTFwas abandoned, we have only an inkling of how TBTF policy affects systemic risk. Moreover, at the same time that Lehman failed, the Fed was intervening in the commercial paper market and aiding money marketmutual fundswhile AIGwas downgraded and subsequently bailed out. In addition, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury were scaremongering about the prospects of a second Great Depression to make the passage of TARPmore likely. Thuswewill never knowifthemarket downturn th at followed the Lehman bankruptcy reflected fear of contagion from Lehman to the real economy or fear of the depths of existing problems in the real economy that were highlighted so dramatically by regulators.In this paper we analyze the mechanisms by which such risk could cause an economy-wide col-lapse.We focus on two types of contagion that might lead to systemic risk problems: (1) information contagion,where the information that one financial firmis troubled is associatedwith negative shocksat other financ ial institutions largely because the firms share common risk factors; or (2) counterparty contagion,where one important financial institution’s collapse leads directly to troubles at other cred-itor firms whose troubles snowball and drive other firms into distress. The efficacy of TBTF policies depends crucially on which of these two types of systemic riskmechanisms dominates.Counterparty contagion may warrant intervention in individual bank failureswhile information contagion does not.If regulators do not ste p in to bail out an individual firm, the alternative is to let it fail. In the case of a bank, the process involves the FDIC as receiver and the insured liabilities of the firmare very quickly repaid. In contrast, the failure of an investment bank or hedge fund does not involve the FDIC andmay closely resemble a Chapter 11 or Chapter 7 filing of a nonfinancial firm. However, if the nonbank financial firm inquestion has liabilities that are covered by the Securities Industry Protection Corporation (SIPC), the firmi s required by lawunder the Securities Industry Protection Act (SIPA) to liquidate under Chapter 7 (Don and Wang, 1990). This explains in large partwhy only the holding company of Lehman filed for bankruptcy in 2008 and its broker–dealer subsidiaries were n ot part of the Chapter 11 filing.A major fear of a financial firm liquidation, whether done through the FDIC or as required by SIPA, is that fire sales will depress recoveries for the creditors of the failed financial firm and that these fire saleswill have ramifications for other firms in related businesses, even if these businesses do not have direct ties to the failed firm (Shleifer and Vishny, 1992). This fear was behind the Fed’s decision to extend liquidity to primary dealers inMarch 2008 – Fed Chairman Bernanke explained in a speech on financial system stability that“the risk developed that liquidity pressuresmight force dealers to sell assets into already illiquid markets. Thismight have resulted in...[a] fire sale scenario..., inwhich a cascade of failures andliquidations sharply depresses asset prices, with adverse financial and economic implications.”(May 13, 2008 speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta conference at Sea Island, Georgia) The fear of potential fire sales is expressed in further detail in t he same speech as a reason for the merger of Bear Stearns and JP Morgan:“Bear...would be forced to file for bankruptcy...[which] wouldhave forced Bear’s secured creditors and counterparties to liquidate the underlying collateral and, given the illiquidity of markets, those creditors and counter parties might well have sustained losses. If they responded to losses or the unexpected illiquidity of their holdings by pulling back from providing secured financing to other firms, a much broader liquidity crisis wou ld have ensued.”The idea that creditors of a failed firm are forced to liquidate assets, and to do so with haste, is counter to the basic tenets of U.S. bankruptcy laws, which are set up to allow creditors the ability to maximize the value of the assets now under their control. If that value is greatest when continuing to operate, the laws allow such a reorganization of the firm. If the value in liquidation is higher, the laws are in no way prejudiced against selling assets in an orderly procedure. Bankruptcy actually reduces the likelihood of fire sales because assets are not sold quickly once a bankruptcy filing occurs. Cash does not leave the bankrupt firm without the approval of a judge.Without pressure to pay debts, the firm can remain in bankruptcy for months as it tries to decide on the best course of action. Indeed, a major complaint about the U.S. code is that debtors can easily delay reorganizing and slow down the process.If, however, creditors and management believe that speedy assets sales are in their best interest, then they can press the bankruptcy judge to approve quick action. This occurred in the case of Lehman’s asset sale to Barclays,which involved hiring workers whomight have split up were their divisions not sold quickly.金融公司破产及系统性的风险2008年秋，当美联邦储备委员会和财政部拒绝85亿美金巨资保险投入到美国国际集团时，这边借给美国国际集团的货款就直接落到了竞争对手手里，而投保人只得到极少的一部分资金。
财务风险 外文文献
外文文献The Important Of Financial RiskSohnke M. Bartram Gregory W. Brown and Murat AtamerAbstract:This paper examines the determinants of equity price risk for a largesample of non-financial corporations in the United States from 1964 to 2008. Weestimate both structural and reduced form models to examine the endogenous natureof corporate financial characteristics such as total debt debt maturity cash holdingsand dividend policy. We find that the observed levels of equity price risk areexplained primarily by operating and asset characteristics such as firm age size assettangibility as well as operating cash flow levels and volatility. In contrast impliedmeasures of financial risk are generally low and more stable than debt-to-equity ratios.Our measures of financial risk have declined over the last 30 years even as measuresof equity volatility e.g. idiosyncratic risk have tended to increase. Consequentlydocumented trends in equity price risk are more than fully accounted for by trends inthe riskiness of firms’assets. Taken together the results suggest that the typical U.S.firm substantially reduces financial risk by carefully managing financial policies. As aresult residual financial risk now appears negligible relative to underlying economicrisk for a typical non-financial firm.Keywords：Capital structure；financial risk；risk management；corporate finance1 1.IntroductionThe financial crisis of 2008 has brought significant attention to the effects offinancial leverage. There is no doubt that the high levels of debt financing by financialinstitutions and households significantly contributed to the crisis. Indeed evidenceindicates that excessive leverage orchestrated by major global banks e.g. through themortgage lending and collateralized debt obligations and the so-called “shadowbanking system”may be the underlying cause of the recent economic and financialdislocation. Less obvious is the role of financial leverage among nonfinancial firms.To date problems in the U.S. non-financial sector have been minor compared to thedistress in the financial sector despite the seizing of capital markets during the crisis.For example non-financial bankruptcies have been limited given that the economicdecline is the largest since the great depression of the 1930s. In fact bankruptcyfilings of non-financial firms have occurred mostly in U.S. industries e.g.automotive manufacturing newspapers and real estate that faced fundamentaleconomic pressures prior to the financial crisis. This surprising fact begs the question“How important is financial risk for non-financial firms”At the heart of this issue isthe uncertainty about the determinants of total firm risk as well as components of firmrisk.Recent academic research in both asset pricing and corporate financehasrekindled an interest in analyzing equity price risk. A current strand of the assetpricing literature examines the finding of Campbell et al. 2001 that firm-specificidiosyncratic risk has tended to increase over the last 40 years. Other work suggeststhat idiosyncratic risk may be a priced risk factor see Goyal and Santa-Clara 2003among others. Also related to these studies is work by Pástor and Veronesi 2003showing how investor uncertainty about firm profitability is an important determinantof idiosyncratic risk and firm value. Other research has examined the role of equityvolatility in bond pricing e.g. Dichev 1998 Campbell Hilscher and Szilagyi2008.However much of the empirical work examining equity price risk takes the riskof assets as given or tries to explain the trend in idiosyncratic risk. In contrast thispaper takes a different tack in the investigation of equity price risk. First we seek tounderstand the determinants of equity price risk at the firm level by considering totalrisk as the product of risks inherent in the firms operations i.e. economic or businessrisks and risks associated with financing the firms operations i.e. financial risks.Second we attempt to assess the relative importance of economic and financial risksand the implications for financial policy.Early research by Modigliani and Miller 1958 suggests that financial policymay be largely irrelevant for firm value because investors can replicate manyfinancial decisions by the firm at a low cost i.e. via homemade leverage andwell-functioning capital markets should be able to distinguish between financial andeconomic distress. Nonetheless financial policies such as adding debt to the capitalstructure can magnify the risk of equity. In contrast recent research on corporate riskmanagement suggests that firms may also be able to reduce risks and increase valuewith financial policies such as hedging with financial derivatives. However thisresearch is often motivated by substantial deadweight costs associated with financialdistress or other market imperfections associated with financial leverage. Empiricalresearch provides conflicting accounts of how costly financial distress can be for atypical publicly traded firm.We attempt to directly address the roles of economic and financial risk byexamining determinants of total firm risk. In our analysis we utilize a large sample ofnon-financial firms in the United States.Our goal of identifying the most importantdeterminants of equity price risk volatility relies on viewing financial policy astransforming asset volatility into equity volatility via financial leverage. Thusthroughout the paper we consider financial leverage as the wedge between assetvolatility and equity volatility. For example in a static setting debt provides financialleverage that magnifies operating cash flow volatility. Because financial policy isdetermined by owners and managers we are careful to examine the effects of firms’asset and operating characteristics on financial policy. Specifically we examine avariety of characteristics suggested by previous research and as clearly as possibledistinguish between those associated of the company(i.e. factors determining economic risk) and those associated with financing the firm(i.e. factors determining financial risk).We then allow economic risk to be a determinant of financial policy in the structural framework of Leland and Toft(1996),or alternatively, in a reduced formmodel of financial leverage.An advantage of the structural model approach is that we are able to account for both the possibility of financial and operating implciations of some factors(e.g .dividends),as well as the endogenous nature of the bankruptcy decision and financial policy in general.Our proxy for firm risk is the volantility if common stock returns derived from calculating the standard deviation of daliy equity returns.Our proxies for econmic risk are designed to capture the essential charactersitics of the firm’s operations and assets that determine the cash flow generating process for the firm.For example,firm size and age provide measures of line of –business maturity; tangible assets(plant,property,and equipment)serve as a proxy for the ‘hardness’of a firm’s assets;capital expenditures measure captial intensity as well as growth potential.Operating profitability and operating profit volatility serve as measures of the timeliness and riskiness of cash flows.To understand how financial factors affect firm risk,we examine total debt,debt maturity,dividend payouts,and holdings of cash and short-term investments.The primary resuit or our analysis is surpriing:factors determining economic risk for a typical company exlain the vast majority of the varation in equity volatility.Correspondingly,measures of implied financial leverage are much lower than observed debt ratios. Specifically, in our sample covering 1964-2008 average actual net financial (market) leverage is 1.50 compared to our estimates of between 1.03 and 1.11 (depending on model specification and estimation technique).This suggests that firms may undertake other financial policise to manage financial risk and thus lower effective leverage to nearly negligible levels.These policies might include dynamically adjusting financial variables such as debt levels,debt maturity,or cash holdings (see,for example , Acharya,Almeida,and Campello,2007).In addition,many firms also utilize explicit financial risk management techniques such as the use of financial dervatives,contractual arrangements with investors (e.g. lines of credit,call provisions in debt contracts ,or contingencies in supplier contracts ),spcial purpose vehicles (SPVs),or other alternative risk transfer techniques.The effects of our ecnomic risk factors on equity volatility are generally highly statiscally significant, with predicted size and age of the firm.This is intuitive since large and mature firms typically have more stable lines of business,which shoule be reflected in the volatility. This suggests that companties with higher and more stable operating cash flows are less likely to go bankrupt, and therefore are potentially less risky .Among economic risk variables,the effects of firm size ,prfit volatility,and dividend policy on equity volatility stand out. Unlike some previous studies,our careful treatment of the endogeneity of financial policy confirms that leveage increases total firm risk. Otherwise,fiancial risk factors are not reliably to total risk.Given the large literature on financial policy , it is no surprise that financial variables are , at least in part , determined by the econmic risks frims take.However, some of the specific findings are unexpected. For example , in a simple model of capital structure ,dividend payouts should increase financial leverage since they represent an outflow of cash from the firm(i.e.,increase net debt ).We find that dividends are associated with lower risk. This suggests that paying dividends is not asmuch a product of financial policy as a characteristic of a firm’s operations(e.g.,a mature company with limited growth opportunities). We also estimate how sensitivities to different risk factors have changed over time.Our result indicate that most relations are fairly stable. One exception is firm age which prior to 1983 tends to be positively related to risk and has since been consisitently negatively related to risk.This is related to findings by Brown and Kapadoa (2007) that recent trends in idiosyncratic risk are related to stock listings by younger and riskier firms.。
财务风险管理中英文对照外文翻译文献
中英文资料翻译Financial Risk ManagementAlthough financial risk has increased significantly in recent years, risk and risk management are not contemporary issues. The result of increasingly global markets is that risk may originate with events thousands of miles away that have nothing to do with the domestic market. Information is available instantaneously, which means that change, and subsequent market reactions, occur very quickly. The economic climate and markets can be affected very quickly by changes in exchange rates, interest rates, and commodity prices. Counterparties can rapidly become problematic. As a result, it is important to ensure financial risks are identified and managed appropriately. Preparation is a key component of risk management.What Is Risk?Risk provides the basis for opportunity. The terms risk and exposure have subtle differences in their meaning. Risk refers to the probability of loss, while exposure is the possibility of loss, although they are often used interchangeably. Risk arises as a result of exposure.Exposure to financial markets affects most organizations, either directly or indirectly. When an organization has financial market exposure, there is a possibility of loss but also an opportunity for gain or profit. Financial market exposure may provide strategic or competitive benefits.Risk is the likelihood of losses resulting from events such as changes in market prices. Events with a low probability of occurring, but that may result in a high loss, are particularly troublesome because they are often not anticipated. Put another way, risk is the probable variability of returns.Since it is not always possible or desirable to eliminate risk, understanding it is an important step in determining how to manage it. Identifying exposures and risks forms the basis for an appropriate financial risk management strategy.How Does Financial Risk?Financial risk arises through countless transactions of a financial nature, including sales and purchases, investments and loans, and various other business activities. It can arise as a result of legal transactions, new projects, mergers and acquisitions, debt financing, the energy component of costs, or through the activities of management, stakeholders, competitors, foreign governments, or weather. When financial prices change dramatically, it can increase costs, reduce revenues, or otherwise adversely impact the profitability of an organization. Financial fluctuations may make it more difficult to plan and budget, price goods and services, and allocate capital.There are three main sources of financial risk:1. Financial risks arising from an organization’s exposure to changes in market prices, such as interest rates, exchange rates, and commodity prices.2. Financial risks arising from the actions of, and transactions with, other organizations such as vendors, customers, and counterparties in derivatives transactions3. Financial risks resulting from internal actions or failures of the organization, particularly people, processes, and systemsWhat Is Financial Risk Management?Financial risk management is a process to deal with the uncertainties resulting from financial markets. It involves assessing the financial risks facing an organization and developing management strategies consistent with internal priorities and policies. Addressing financial risks proactively may provide an organization with a competitive advantage. It also ensures that management, operational staff, stakeholders, and the board of directors are in agreement on key issues of risk.Managing financial risk necessitates making organizational decisions about risks that are acceptable versus those that are not. The passive strategy of taking no action is the acceptance of all risks by default.Organizations manage financial risk using a variety of strategies and products. It is important to understand how these products and strategies work to reduce riskwithin the context of the organization’s risk tolerance and objectives.Strategies for risk management often involve derivatives. Derivatives are traded widely among financial institutions and on organized exchanges. The value of derivatives contracts, such as futures, forwards, options, and swaps, is derived from the price of the underlying asset. Derivatives trade on interest rates, exchange rates, commodities, equity and fixed income securities, credit, and even weather.The products and strategies used by market participants to manage financial risk are the same ones used by speculators to increase leverage and risk. Although it can be argued that widespread use of derivatives increases risk, the existence of derivatives enables those who wish to reduce risk to pass it along to those who seek risk and its associated opportunities.The ability to estimate the likelihood of a financial loss is highly desirable. However, standard theories of probability often fail in the analysis of financial markets. Risks usually do not exist in isolation, and the interactions of several exposures may have to be considered in developing an understanding of how financial risk arises. Sometimes, these interactions are difficult to forecast, since they ultimately depend on human behavior.The process of financial risk management is an ongoing one. Strategies need to be implemented and refined as the market and requirements change. Refinements may reflect changing expectations about market rates, changes to the business environment, or changing international political conditions, for example. In general, the process can be summarized as follows:1、Identify and prioritize key financial risks.2、Determine an appropriate level of risk tolerance.3、Implement risk management strategy in accordance with policy.4、Measure, report, monitor, and refine as needed.DiversificationFor many years, the riskiness of an asset was assessed based only on the variability of its returns. In contrast, modern portfolio theory considers not only an asset’s riskiness, but also its contribution to the overall riskiness of the portfolio towhich it is added. Organizations may have an opportunity to reduce risk as a result of risk diversification.In portfolio management terms, the addition of individual components to a portfolio provides opportunities for diversification, within limits. A diversified portfolio contains assets whose returns are dissimilar, in other words, weakly or negatively correlated with one another. It is useful to think of the exposures of an organization as a portfolio and consider the impact of changes or additions on the potential risk of the total.Diversification is an important tool in managing financial risks. Diversification among counterparties may reduce the risk that unexpected events adversely impact the organization through defaults. Diversification among investment assets reduces the magnitude of loss if one issuer fails. Diversification of customers, suppliers, and financing sources reduces the possibility that an organization will have its business adversely affected by changes outside management’s control. Although the risk of loss still exists, diversification may reduce the opportunity for large adverse outcomes.Risk Management ProcessThe process of financial risk management comprises strategies that enable an organization to manage the risks associated with financial markets. Risk management is a dynamic process that should evolve with an organization and its business. It involves and impacts many parts of an organization including treasury, sales, marketing, legal, tax, commodity, and corporate finance.The risk management process involves both internal and external analysis. The first part of the process involves identifying and prioritizing the financial risks facing an organization and understanding their relevance. It may be necessary to examine the organization and its products, management, customers, suppliers, competitors, pricing, industry trends, balance sheet structure, and position in the industry. It is also necessary to consider stakeholders and their objectives and tolerance for risk.Once a clear understanding of the risks emerges, appropriate strategies can be implemented in conjunction with risk management policy. For example, it might bepossible to change where and how business is done, thereby reducing the organization’s exposure and risk. Alternatively, existing exposures may be managed with derivatives. Another strategy for managing risk is to accept all risks and the possibility of losses.There are three broad alternatives for managing risk:1. Do nothing and actively, or passively by default, accept all risks.2. Hedge a portion of exposures by determining which exposures can and should be hedged.3. Hedge all exposures possible.Measurement and reporting of risks provides decision makers with information to execute decisions and monitor outcomes, both before and after strategies are taken to mitigate them. Since the risk management process is ongoing, reporting and feedback can be used to refine the system by modifying or improving strategies.An active decision-making process is an important component of risk management. Decisions about potential loss and risk reduction provide a forum for discussion of important issues and the varying perspectives of stakeholders.Factors that Impact Financial Rates and PricesFinancial rates and prices are affected by a number of factors. It is essential to understand the factors that impact markets because those factors, in turn, impact the potential risk of an organization.Factors that Affect Interest RatesInterest rates are a key component in many market prices and an important economic barometer. They are comprised of the real rate plus a component for expected inflation, since inflation reduces the purchasing power of a lender’s assets .The greater the term to maturity, the greater the uncertainty. Interest rates are also reflective of supply and demand for funds and credit risk.Interest rates are particularly important to companies and governments because they are the key ingredient in the cost of capital. Most companies and governments require debt financing for expansion and capital projects. When interest rates increase, the impact can be significant on borrowers. Interest rates also affect prices in otherfinancial markets, so their impact is far-reaching.Other components to the interest rate may include a risk premium to reflect the creditworthiness of a borrower. For example, the threat of political or sovereign risk can cause interest rates to rise, sometimes substantially, as investors demand additional compensation for the increased risk of default.Factors that influence the level of market interest rates include:1、Expected levels of inflation2、General economic conditions3、Monetary policy and the stance of the central bank4、Foreign exchange market activity5、Foreign investor demand for debt securities6、Levels of sovereign debt outstanding7、Financial and political stabilityYield CurveThe yield curve is a graphical representation of yields for a range of terms to maturity. For example, a yield curve might illustrate yields for maturity from one day (overnight) to 30-year terms. Typically, the rates are zero coupon government rates.Since current interest rates reflect expectations, the yield curve provides useful information about the market’s expectations of future interest rates. Implied interest rates for forward-starting terms can be calculated using the information in the yield curve. For example, using rates for one- and two-year maturities, the expected one-year interest rate beginning in one year’s time can be determined.The shape of the yield curve is widely analyzed and monitored by market participants. As a gauge of expectations, it is often considered to be a predictor of future economic activity and may provide signals of a pending change in economic fundamentals.The yield curve normally slopes upward with a positive slope, as lenders/investors demand higher rates from borrowers for longer lending terms. Since the chance of a borrower default increases with term to maturity, lenders demand to be compensated accordingly.Interest rates that make up the yield curve are also affected by the expected rate of inflation. Investors demand at least the expected rate of inflation from borrowers, in addition to lending and risk components. If investors expect future inflation to be higher, they will demand greater premiums for longer terms to compensate for this uncertainty. As a result, the longer the term, the higher the interest rate (all else being equal), resulting in an upward-sloping yield curve.Occasionally, the demand for short-term funds increases substantially, and short-term interest rates may rise above the level of longer term interest rates. This results in an inversion of the yield curve and a downward slope to its appearance. The high cost of short-term funds detracts from gains that would otherwise be obtained through investment and expansion and make the economy vulnerable to slowdown or recession. Eventually, rising interest rates slow the demand for both short-term and long-term funds. A decline in all rates and a return to a normal curve may occur as a result of the slowdown.财务风险管理尽管近年来金融风险大大增加，但风险和风险管理不是当代的主要问题。
财务风险管理外文文献翻译译文
Financial Risk ManagementAlthough financial risk has increased significantly in recent years, risk and risk management are not contemporary issues. The result of increasingly global markets is that risk may originate with events thousands of miles away that have nothing to do with the domestic market. Information is available instantaneously, which means that change, and subsequent market reactions, occur very quickly. The economic climate and markets can be affected very quickly by changes in exchange rates, interest rates, and commodity prices. Counterparties can rapidly become problematic. As a result, it is important to ensure financial risks are identified and managed appropriately. Preparation is a key component of risk management.What Is Risk?Risk provides the basis for opportunity. The terms risk and exposure have subtle differences in their meaning. Risk refers to the probability of loss, while exposure is the possibility of loss, although they are often used interchangeably. Risk arises as a result of exposure.Exposure to financial markets affects most organizations, either directly or indirectly. When an organization has financial market exposure, there is a possibility of loss but also an opportunity for gain or profit. Financial market exposure may provide strategic or competitive benefits.Risk is the likelihood of losses resulting from events such as changes in market prices. Events with a low probability of occurring, but that may result in a high loss, are particularly troublesome because they are often not anticipated. Put another way, risk is the probable variability of returns.Since it is not always possible or desirable to eliminate risk,understanding it is an important step in determining how to manage it. Identifying exposures and risks forms the basis for an appropriate financial risk management strategy.How Does Financial Risk?Financial risk arises through countless transactions of a financial nature, including sales and purchases, investments and loans, and various other business activities. It can arise as a result of legal transactions, new projects, mergers and acquisitions, debt financing, the energy component of costs, or through the activities of management, stakeholders, competitors, foreign governments, or weather. When financial prices change dramatically, it can increase costs, reduce revenues, or otherwise adversely impact the profitability of an organization. Financial fluctuations may make it more difficult to plan and budget, price goods and services, and allocate capital.There are three main sources of financial risk:1. Financial risks arising from an organization’s exposure to changes in market prices, such as interest rates, exchange rates, and commodity prices.2. Financial risks arising from the actions of, and transactions with, other organizations such as vendors, customers, and counterparties in derivatives transactions3. Financial risks resulting from internal actions or failures of the organization, particularly people, processes, and systemsWhat Is Financial Risk Management?Financial risk management is a process to deal with the uncertainties resulting from financial markets. It involves assessing the financial risks facing an organization and developing management strategies consistent withinternal priorities and policies. Addressing financial risks proactively may provide an organization with a competitive advantage. It also ensures that management, operational staff, stakeholders, and the board of directors are in agreement on key issues of risk.Managing financial risk necessitates making organizational decisions about risks that are acceptable versus those that are not. The passive strategy of taking no action is the acceptance of all risks by default.Organizations manage financial risk using a variety of strategies and products. It is important to understand how these products and strategies work to reduce risk within the context of the organization’s risk tolerance and objectives.Strategies for risk management often involve derivatives. Derivatives are traded widely among financial institutions and on organized exchanges. The value of derivatives contracts, such as futures, forwards, options, and swaps, is derived from the price of the underlying asset. Derivatives trade on interest rates, exchange rates, commodities, equity and fixed income securities, credit, and even weather.The products and strategies used by market participants to manage financial risk are the same ones used by speculators to increase leverage and risk. Although it can be argued that widespread use of derivatives increases risk, the existence of derivatives enables those who wish to reduce risk to pass it along to those who seek risk and its associated opportunities.The ability to estimate the likelihood of a financial loss is highly desirable. However, standard theories of probability often fail in the analysis of financial markets. Risks usually do not exist in isolation, and theinteractions of several exposures may have to be considered in developing an understanding of how financial risk arises. Sometimes, these interactions are difficult to forecast, since they ultimately depend on human behavior.The process of financial risk management is an ongoing one. Strategies need to be implemented and refined as the market and requirements change. Refinements may reflect changing expectations about market rates, changes to the business environment, or changing international political conditions, for example. In general, the process can be summarized as follows:1、Identify and prioritize key financial risks.2、Determine an appropriate level of risk tolerance.3、Implement risk management strategy in accordance with policy.4、Measure, report, monitor, and refine as needed.DiversificationFor many years, the riskiness of an asset was assessed based only on the variability of its returns. In contrast, modern portfolio theory considers not only an asset’s riskiness, but also its contribution to the overall riskiness of the portfolio to which it is added. Organizations may have an opportunity to reduce risk as a result of risk diversification.In portfolio management terms, the addition of individual components to a portfolio provides opportunities for diversification, within limits. A diversified portfolio contains assets whose returns are dissimilar, in other words, weakly or negatively correlated with one another. It is useful to think of the exposures of an organization as a portfolio and consider the impact of changes or additions on the potential risk of the total.Diversification is an important tool in managing financial risks.Diversification among counterparties may reduce the risk that unexpected events adversely impact the organization through defaults. Diversification among investment assets reduces the magnitude of loss if one issuer fails. Diversification of customers, suppliers, and financing sources reduces the possibility that an organization will have its business adversely affected by changes outside management’s control. Although the risk of loss still exists, diversification may reduce the opportunity for large adverse outcomes.Risk Management ProcessThe process of financial risk management comprises strategies that enable an organization to manage the risks associated with financial markets. Risk management is a dynamic process that should evolve with an organization and its business. It involves and impacts many parts of an organization including treasury, sales, marketing, legal, tax, commodity, and corporate finance.The risk management process involves both internal and external analysis. The first part of the process involves identifying and prioritizing the financial risks facing an organization and understanding their relevance. It may be necessary to examine the organization and its products, management, customers, suppliers, competitors, pricing, industry trends, balance sheet structure, and position in the industry. It is also necessary to consider stakeholders and their objectives and tolerance for risk.Once a clear understanding of the risks emerges, appropriate strategies can be implemented in conjunction with risk management policy. For example, it might be possible to change where and how business is done, thereby reducing the organization’s exposure and risk. Alternatively, existingexposures may be managed with derivatives. Another strategy for managing risk is to accept all risks and the possibility of losses.There are three broad alternatives for managing risk:1. Do nothing and actively, or passively by default, accept all risks.2. Hedge a portion of exposures by determining which exposures can and should be hedged.3. Hedge all exposures possible.Measurement and reporting of risks provides decision makers with information to execute decisions and monitor outcomes, both before and after strategies are taken to mitigate them. Since the risk management process is ongoing, reporting and feedback can be used to refine the system by modifying or improving strategies.An active decision-making process is an important component of risk management. Decisions about potential loss and risk reduction provide a forum for discussion of important issues and the varying perspectives of stakeholders.Factors that Impact Financial Rates and PricesFinancial rates and prices are affected by a number of factors. It is essential to understand the factors that impact markets because those factors, in turn, impact the potential risk of an organization.Factors that Affect Interest RatesInterest rates are a key component in many market prices and an important economic barometer. They are comprised of the real rate plus a component for expected inflation, since inflation reduces the purchasing power of a lender’s assets .The greater the term to maturity, the greater theuncertainty. Interest rates are also reflective of supply and demand for funds and credit risk.Interest rates are particularly important to companies and governments because they are the key ingredient in the cost of capital. Most companies and governments require debt financing for expansion and capital projects. When interest rates increase, the impact can be significant on borrowers. Interest rates also affect prices in other financial markets, so their impact is far-reaching.Other components to the interest rate may include a risk premium to reflect the creditworthiness of a borrower. For example, the threat of political or sovereign risk can cause interest rates to rise, sometimes substantially, as investors demand additional compensation for the increased risk of default.Factors that influence the level of market interest rates include:1、Expected levels of inflation2、General economic conditions3、Monetary policy and the stance of the central bank4、Foreign exchange market activity5、Foreign investor demand for debt securities6、Levels of sovereign debt outstanding7、Financial and political stabilityYield CurveThe yield curve is a graphical representation of yields for a range of terms to maturity. For example, a yield curve might illustrate yields for maturity from one day (overnight) to 30-year terms. Typically, the rates are zero coupon government rates.Since current interest rates reflect expectations, the yield curve provides useful information about the market’s expectations of future interest rates. Implied interest rates for forward-starting terms can be calculated using the information in the yield curve. For example, using rates for one- and two-year maturities, the expected one-year interest rate beginning in one year’s time can be determined.The shape of the yield curve is widely analyzed and monitored by market participants. As a gauge of expectations, it is often considered to be a predictor of future economic activity and may provide signals of a pending change in economic fundamentals.The yield curve normally slopes upward with a positive slope, as lenders/investors demand higher rates from borrowers for longer lending terms. Since the chance of a borrower default increases with term to maturity, lenders demand to be compensated accordingly.Interest rates that make up the yield curve are also affected by the expected rate of inflation. Investors demand at least the expected rate of inflation from borrowers, in addition to lending and risk components. If investors expect future inflation to be higher, they will demand greater premiums for longer terms to compensate for this uncertainty. As a result, the longer the term, the higher the interest rate (all else being equal), resulting in an upward-sloping yield curve.Occasionally, the demand for short-term funds increases substantially, and short-term interest rates may rise above the level of longer term interest rates. This results in an inversion of the yield curve and a downward slope to its appearance. The high cost of short-term funds detracts from gains that would otherwise be obtained through investment and expansion and make the economyvulnerable to slowdown or recession. Eventually, rising interest rates slow the demand for both short-term and long-term funds. A decline in all rates and a return to a normal curve may occur as a result of the slowdown.财务风险管理尽管近年来金融风险大大增加，但风险和风险管理不是当代的主要问题。
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中英文资料外文翻译财务风险重要性分析译文：摘要：本文探讨了美国大型非金融企业从1964年至2008年股票价格风险的决定小性因素。
我们通过相关结构以及简化模型，研究诸如债务总额，债务期限，现金持有量，及股利政策等公司财务特征，我们发现，股票价格风险主要通过经营和资产特点，如企业年龄，规模，有形资产，经营性现金流及其波动的水平来体现。
与此相反，隐含的财务风险普遍偏低，且比产权比率稳定。
在过去30年，我们对财务风险采取的措施有所减少，反而对股票波动（如独特性风险）采取的措施逐渐增加。
因此，股票价格风险的记载趋势比公司的资产风险趋势更具代表性。
综合二者，结果表明，典型的美国公司谨慎管理的财政政策大大降低了财务风险。
因此，现在看来微不足道的剩余财务风险相对底层的非金融公司为一典型的经济风险。
关键词：资本结构；财务风险；风险管理；企业融资1 绪论2008年的金融危机对金融杠杆的作用产生重大影响。
毫无疑问，向金融机构的巨额举债和内部融资均有风险。
事实上，有证据表明，全球主要银行精心策划的杠杆（如通过抵押贷款和担保债务）和所谓的“影子银行系统”可能是最近的经济和金融混乱的根本原因。
财务杠杆在非金融企业的作用不太明显。
迄今为止，尽管资本市场已困在危机中，美国非金融部门的问题相比金融业的困境来说显得微不足道。
例如，非金融企业破产机遇仅限于自20世纪30年代大萧条以来的最大经济衰退。
事实上，非金融公司申请破产的事件大都发生在美国各行业（如汽车制造业，报纸，房地产）所面临的基本经济压力即金融危机之前。
这令人惊讶的事实引出了一个问题“非金融公司的财务风险是如何重要？”。
这个问题的核心是关于公司的总风险以及公司风险组成部分的各决定因素的不确定性。
最近在资产定价和企业融资再度引发的两个学术研究中分析了股票价格风险利率。
一系列的资产定价文献探讨了关于卡贝尔等的发现。
（2001）在过去的40年，公司特定（特有）的风险有增加的趋势。
相关的工作表明，个别风险可能是一个价格风险因素（见戈亚尔和克莱拉，2003年）。
也关系到牧师和维罗妮卡的工作研究结果（2003年），显示投资者对公司盈利能力是其特殊风险还是公司价值不确定的重要决定因素。
其他研究（如迪切夫，1998年，坎贝尔，希尔舍，和西拉吉，2008）已经研究了股票，债券价格波动的作用。
然而，股票价格风险实证研究的大部分工作需要提供资产风险或试图解释特有风险的趋势。
与此相反，本文从不同的角度调查股票价格风险。
首先，我们通过在公司经营中有关的产品所固有的风险（即，经济或商业风险）来考虑为企业融资业务风险，和企业运营有关的财务风险（即，金融风险）。
第二，我们试图评估经济和财务风险的相对重要性以及对金融政策的影响。
莫迪利亚尼和米勒提早研究（1958）认为，财政政策可以在很大程度上与公司价值无关，因为投资者可以通过咨询许多金融公司最终以较低的成本入资（即，通过自制的杠杆）同时运作良好的资本市场应该可以区分金融危机和经济危机。
尽管如此，金融政策，如增加债务资本结构，可以放大财务风险。
相反，对企业风险管理最近的研究表明，企业通过发行金融衍生品也可以减少企业风险和增加企业价值。
然而，本研究的动机往往是与金融危机有关的巨额成本或其他相关费用和与财务杠杆有关的市场缺陷。
实证研究表明金融危机如何侵蚀一家典型上市公司的巨额帐户。
我们试图通过直接处理公司风险因素分析整体经济和金融风险的作用。
在我们的分析过程中，我们利用了美国非金融公司的大样本。
我们确定的股票价格风险的最重要决定因素（波动性）视为通过财务杠杆将资产转化为股权的财政政策。
因此，在整个论文中，我们考虑了连接资产波动和股权波动的财务杠杆。
由此可知，财务杠杆可以衡量资产和股权的波动性。
由于财政政策是由经营者（或经营者）决定，因此我们应该注意与企业资产和运营有关的金融政策的影响。
具体来说，我们研究了以前的研究表明的各种特点，并尽可能明确区分与公司运营有关的风险（即决定经济的风险因素）和与企业融资有关的风险（即财务风险的决定因素）。
然后，我们使经济风险成为利兰和托夫特（1996）模型或者是降低财务杠杆的模型中财政政策的决定性因素。
采用结构模型的优点是，我们能够考虑，无论是有关财务及经营问题的一些可能性因素（如分红），还是一般破产决定，且为财政政策内生性的可能性。
我们代理的公司风险是从股票每天回报率的标准差而得的普通股的收益波动性计算而来。
我们代理的经济风险是用来维护的公司的业务和资产，确定产生的现金流量的过程为公司的本质特征。
例如，企业规模和年龄可以衡量企业的成熟度；有形资产（厂房，财产和设备）代表一个公司的“硬件”；资本开支衡量资本密集度以及企业发展潜力。
营业利润及其波动性可以衡量现金流量的及时性和存在的风险。
要了解公司财务风险的影响因素，我们需考察总债务，债务期限，股息支出，以及现金和短期投资。
我们分析的核心结果是惊人的：一个典型公司经济风险的决定性因素可以解释绝大多数股票的波动性变化。
相应地，隐含的财务杠杆远远比看到的负债比率低。
具体来说，我们在涵盖1964年至2008年的样本中平均实际净财务（市场）杠杆约为1.50，而我们的估计值（根据型号不同规格，估计技术）在1.03和1.11之间。
这表明，企业可能采取其他金融政策管理金融风险，从而将有效杠杆降低到几乎可以忽略不计的水平。
这些政策可能包括动态调整财务变量，如债务水平，债务期限，或现金控股（见如阿查里雅，阿尔梅达，和坎佩洛，2007）。
此外，许多公司也利用诸如金融衍生工具，与投资者的合同安排（如信贷额度，债务合同要求规定，或在供应商合同应急费用），车辆特殊用途（特殊目的公司）使用明确的金融风险管理技术，或其他替代风险转移技术。
对股票波动性产生影响的经济风险因素预测的迹象通常非常显著。
此外，影响的幅度也是巨大的。
我们发现，股权会随着企业规模和年龄的大小而波动。
这是直观的，因为大型和成熟的企业通常有反映资本报酬波动的较稳定业务范围。
资本支出的减少对股票的波动影响较弱。
与牧师和韦罗内西（2003年）的预测相一致，我们发现，具有较高的盈利能力和较低的利润波动性的公司股票的波动性较低。
这表明，有更高，更稳定的经营性现金流量的公司破产的可能性较小，因此存在潜在风险的可能性较小。
在所有的经济风险因素中，公司规模，利润波动及股利政策对股票波动性的的影响突出。
不像以前的一些研究中，我们对增加总公司杠杆风险的财政政策的内生性精心研究证实。
否则，金融风险与总风险存在不确定的关系。
鉴于大量关于财政政策文献的研究，毫不奇怪，至少部分金融变量由企业存在的经济风险决定。
不过，具体的调查结果有些出人意料。
例如，在一个简单的模型中，资本结构，股利支出会增加财务杠杆，因为它们代表了一个企业（即增加的净债务）的现金流出。
我们发现，股息与低风险有关。
这表明，分红没有金融政策和作为一个公司运营特点的产品那么多（例如，有限的增长机会成熟的公司）。
我们也估计不同的风险因素随时间变化的敏感性不同。
我们的研究结果表明，大多数关系都相当稳定。
一个例外是1983年之前企业年龄往往与风险是恒定的正相关关系，而之后一直与风险持续负相关关系。
这与布朗和卡帕迪亚（2007年）的调查结果相吻合，最新趋势是独特性风险与在股票上市的年轻、高风险公司密切相关。
也许最有趣的是我们的分析结果，过去30年，在隐含的金融杠杆下降的同时，股票的价格风险（如独特性风险）似乎一直在增加。
事实上，从我们的结构模型来看隐含的财务杠杆，在我们的样本中调停在近1.0（即无杠杆）。
这有几个可能的原因。
首先，在过去30年，非金融企业的总负债率稳步下降，，所以我们的隐含杠杆也应减少。
第二，企业显著增加现金持有量，这样，净债务（债务减去现金和短期投资）也有所下降。
第三，上市公司的构成发生了变化产生更多的风险（尤其是技术导向）。
这些公司往往在其资本结构中债务较少。
第四，如上所述，企业可以进行金融风险管理的各种活动。
只要这些活动在过去几十年中有上升幅度，企业将成为受到金融风险因素影响较少的对象。
我们进行一些额外的测试，我们的结果提供了实证研究。
首先，我们重复同一个简化式模型，估计强加的最低结构刚性，找到我们非常相似的分析结果。
这表明我们的结果是不太可能受模型假设错误的驱动。
我们也比较所有美国非金融公司的总债务水平与业绩的趋势，并找到与我们的结论相一致的证据。
最后，我们看看过去三年经济衰退的各地上市非金融公司破产的文件，并找到证据表明，这些企业正越来越多地受到经济危机而不是金融危机影响的观点。
总之，我们的结果表明，从实际来看，剩余的财务风险对现在典型的美国公司来说相对不重要。
这就是对财务成本水平预期问题，因为发生财务危机的可能性有可能低于大多数公司的一般可能性。
例如，我们的结果表明，如果不考虑隐含的财务杠杆（如迪切夫，1998年）的趋势，将会对风险债券的系统性定价水平估计可能有偏差。
我们的研究结果也质疑用以估计违约概率的金融模式是否恰当，因为，可能难以通过观察实施大幅降低风险的财政政策。
最后，我们的研究结果意味着，由资本产生的基本风险主要与资本的有效配置产生的潜在经济风险有关。
在开始之前我们先评论一下我们分析的潜在观点。
一些读者可能想将其解释为我们的结果表明财务风险并不重要。
这不是正确的解释。
相反，我们的结果表明，企业可以管理财务风险，使股东承担较低的经济风险。
当然，财务风险对企业来讲非常重要，只是选择承担高负债水平或缺乏管理风险的不同罢了。
相比之下，我们的研究表明，典型的非金融类公司选择不采取这些风险。
总之，财务总风险可能是重要的，但公司可以管理它。
与此相反，基本的经济和商业风险更难以（或不受欢迎）预防，因为他们可以代表机制，使企业赢得经济效益。
下面本文进行条理分析。
动机，相关文献，和假设在第2节进行回顾。
第3节描述了我们使用的模型，接着在第4节对其数据进行介绍。
利兰-托夫特模型的实证结果列在第5节。
第6节根据简化模型讨论了美国无金融因素的债务总额数据，以及在过去25年对破产申请的分析估计；并作总结。
2 动机，相关文献，并假设研究公司风险及其影响因素对金融的所有领域来说是非常重要的。
在有关企业融资的文献中，企业的风险对优化资本结构，资产置换的代理成本的各种基本问题产生直接影响。
同样，公司风险的特点是所有资产定价模型中的基本因素。
企业融资的文献往往与金融风险相关的市场缺陷密切联系。
在莫迪利亚尼米勒（1958年）的框架内，金融风险（或更一般的财政政策）是无关紧要的，因为投资者可以自行了解公司的财务决策。
因此，运作良好的资本市场应该能够区分金融危机和经济破产。
例如，安德拉德和卡普兰（1998）通过分析高杠杆交易仔细区分了金融和经济困境成本，最终发现财务困境成本对公司子集来说是很小的，所以是一个不会经历“经济”冲击的。