经济学人
2011.11.20
Free trade in the Pacific
太平洋自由贸易
A small reason to be cheerful
一件值得庆贺的小事
An inspiring idea to liberalise transpacific trade hinges on the courage of America and, especially, Japan
环太平洋贸易自由化，这一振奋人心的想法取决于美国特别是日本的勇气
WITH thunderclouds looming over the trans-Atlantic economy, it was easy to miss a bright piece of news last weekend from the other crucible of world trade, the Pacific Rim. In Honolulu, where Barack Obama hosted a summit of Asia-Pacific leaders, Canada, Japan and Mexico expressed interest in joining nine countries (America, Australia, Brunei , Chile, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam) in discussing a free-trade pact. Altogether, the possible members of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) produce 40% of world GDP—far more than the European Union.
当雷雨的阴霾在环大西洋经济地区上空密布之际，人们很容易忽略上周末在世界贸易的另一个关键地区，环太平洋地区传来的那件令人眼前一亮的新闻。在东道主巴拉克?奥巴马在檀香山主持的亚太地区首脑峰会上，加拿大、日本和墨西哥表达了参与九国集团（美国、澳大利亚、文莱、智利、马来西亚、新西兰、秘鲁、新加坡和越南）讨论一项自由贸易协定的意愿。这一环太平洋组织（TPP）拟议中的成员国总计将生产世界GDP的40%,远超欧盟所占的比例。
Regional trade deals are not always a good idea. If they distract policymakers from global trade liberalisation, they are to be discouraged. But with the Doha round of global trade talks showing no flicker of life, there is little danger that the TPP will derail a broader agreement; and by cutting barriers, strengthening intellectual-property protections and going beyond a web of existing trade deals, it should boost world trade.
地区贸易交易并不总是一项好主意。如果它们会转移政策制定者对全球贸易自由化的注意力，那就不应该赞成。但由于全球贸易谈判多哈回合（Doha round）并未重启，TPP的存在不大可能影响一个更为广泛的协议；而且由于剔除了壁垒、加强了对知识产权的保护并超越了现存的贸易交易网，TPP应该能够促进世界贸易。
The creation of a wider TPP is still some way off. For it to come into being its architects—Mr Obama, who faces a tough election battle next year, and Japan’s Yoshihiko Noda, who faces crony politics laced with passionate protectionism—need to show more leadership.
建立更为广泛的TPP尚需时日。为了它的创建，该组织的两位设计师——将于明年面临一场艰苦选战的奥巴马和面对与狂热的贸易保护主义者关系密切的亲信政治家的日本首相野田佳彦（Yoshihiko Noda）——需要表现出更为高明的领导才能。
The Noda showdown
野
田佳彦背水一战
Mr Noda’s announcement on November 11th that Japan was interested in joining the TPP negotiations was an exceedingly bold move. Signing up would mean dramatic changes in Japan, a country which has 800% tariffs on rice and exports 65 vehicles to America for every one that is sent to Japan. Mr Noda’s move could also transform the prospects of the TPP, most obviously by uniting two of the world’s leading three economies but also by galvanising others. Until he expressed an interest, Canada and Mexico had also remained on the sidelines. Unwittingly or not, Mr Noda has thrust mercantilist Japan into a central position on a trade treaty in which free movement of everything except labour is on the table.
11月11日野田宣布日本有兴趣参与TPP谈判，这是一次极为大胆的举动。正式签字加入该组织将意味着日本国内的重大变化，因为这个国家对稻米征收800%的关税，对美国的汽车出口量是从美国的进口量的65倍。野田此举也可能会改变TPP的前景，最明显的是位居世界前三位的两大经济体的联合；但此举同时也激励了其他国家。在他表达兴趣之前，加拿大和墨西哥只在边缘徘徊。无论有意与否，野田把重商主义的日本推到了一项贸易协议的中心地位，而这一协议将讨论除了劳动力之外所有商品的自由流动。
Immense obstacles loom for Mr Noda. He came into office in September casting himself as a conciliator of Japan’s warring political factions. Many of those groups are opposed to the TPP. Farm co-operatives, which feather many a politician’s nest, argue that it would rob Japan of its rice heritage. Doctors warn of the risks to Japan’s cherished health system. Socialists see the TPP as a Washington-led sideswipe at China, which had hoped to build an East Asian trade orbit including Japan. Mr Noda will have to contend not just with opposition from rival parties but also with a split on the issue inside his Democratic Party of Japan.
野田将面临极大的障碍。他9月就任首相，为自己竖立的是一个日本各敌对政治派系安抚者的形象。这些派系中有许多是反对TPP的。与许多政治家私通款曲的农业合作社争辩说，TPP将会剥夺日本的稻米传统。医师们警告说日本所珍爱的保健系统将面临风险。社会主义者视TPP为华盛顿领导的对中国的间接打击，因为在此之前中国希望建立一个包括日本的东亚贸易轨道。野田不但要与在野党的反对斗争，还要与他自己的日本自民党内部在此问题上的分裂斗争。
Since Honolulu, Mr Noda has already pandered to protectionists by watering down his message. Having beamed next to Mr Obama in a summit photo, he then protested that the White House had overstated his intention to put all goods and services up for negotiation. Polls, however, suggest the Japanese are crying out for leadership on th
e issue, not pusillanimity. More support the idea of entering TPP negotiations than oppose it. On their behalf Mr Noda should lead Japan forthrightly into the discussions, confident that the country can bargain well enough to give its sacred industries such as farming and health care time to adjust.
檀香山会议之后，野田对他的方针轻描淡写，以此迎合贸易保护主义者。在峰会拍照时他站在奥巴马身边微笑，但他接着就对白宫提出抗议，说它夸大了他把所有货物与服务行业都放入可以谈判之列的意愿。但民意调查表明，在这个问题上，日本国民迫切需要的是领导责任而不是优柔寡断。更多的人支持而不是反对参加TPP谈判。代表着他们的野田应该带领日本直截了当地参与讨论，对于本国谈判人员的技巧有信心，相信他们能为该国农业与医疗保健业一类神圣产业争取到调整的时间。
It is also a test for Mr Obama’s new strategy of coping with China’s rise by “pivoting” American foreign policy more towards Asia (see article). He must stand up to the unions in the car industry which have long bellyached about the imbalance of trade with Japan. He should energetically promote the potential gains for jobs of his pro-Asia strategy—both at home and abroad. America should also stress that the TPP is meant to engage and incorporate China, rather than constrain it.
这同样也是对奥巴马为应付中国崛起而将美国外交政策的重心向亚洲“倾斜”的新战略（见另文）的一次检验。他必须勇敢地面对早就因对日贸易不平衡而牢骚满腹的汽车业工会。他应该在国内外大力宣传他的亚洲优先战略在就业上的潜在收益。美国也应该强调，TPP也想要吸引与包含中国，而不是要遏制它。
Such steps would help win support in Japan, while costing America little. And in joining the TPP, Japan would be forced to reform hidebound parts of its economy, such as services, which would stimulate growth. A revitalised Japan would add to the dynamism of a more liberalised Asia-Pacific region. That is surely something worth fighting for.
这些步骤有助于TPP在日本赢得支持，而美国要付出的代价很小。通过参加TPP，日本将被迫改革它经济中死板的部分，如服务业；而这将刺激发展。一个恢复了生命力的日本将为更为自由化的亚太地区增加活力，这当然是值得为之奋斗的事业。
赞 (2) 回应
墨旱
墨旱 (Stay Hungry Stay Foolish) 2011-11-19 23:02:46
2011.11.19
Toys and culture
玩具和文化
Buy early, buy often
早买，常买
Children already lobbying for tacky Christmas toys? It’s not their fault
孩子们正在要求俗气的圣诞礼物么？这不是他们的错
Nov 12th 2011 | from the print edition
Or perhaps that one
“THE toy industry has always reflected adult culture,” says Chri
s Byrne, an American toy-industry consultant. In the 1920s girls played with ironing boards because they expected later to iron their husbands’ shirts. The first 1950s Barbie dolls had two careers: fashion model and bride. So what do British toy shops say about the state of the nation today?
“玩具业总是反应成人文化，”资深美国玩具业人士查尔斯-伯恩说。在20年代女孩们用熨衣板做玩具是因为她们想以后要为她们的丈夫熨衣服。芭比娃娃在50年代最初出现时有两个身份：时尚女郎和新娘。那么英国玩具店就如今的国情到底要说些什么？
Good news first: the British are generous. Parents buy many more toys for their offspring than do their continental counterparts. Britain is Europe’s biggest toy market, followed by France and Germany, according to Frédérique Tutt, an analyst at NPD EuroToys. British parents buy an average of 41 toys per year, which is almost a toy per week. In Spain, by contrast, children receive few toys outside the Christmas season.
先说好消息：英国人慷慨大方。相较海峡那边的欧洲大陆的国家来说，英国父母为孩子买更多的玩具。根据NPD EuroToys（市场调查公司）的分析师弗雷德里克-塔特的资料，英国是欧洲最大的玩具市场，然后是法国和德国。英国父母每年平均买41个玩具，几乎是一周一个。而在西班牙，孩子们除了圣诞季节以外很少收到玩具。
Less encouragingly, Britons seem highly susceptible to media conglomerates’ marketing campaigns. Britain’s toy market is similar to America’s in favouring entertainment over education, says Gerrick Johnson, a toy analyst at BMO Capital Markets. About one-quarter of toy sales in Britain are licence-driven, which means they are based on characters from Disney films or television series such as the popular “Peppa Pig” and “Fireman Sam”. The proportion in Germany is just 14%.
遗憾的是，英国人似乎很容易受大媒体营销活动的影响。BMO金融公司的玩具分析师盖瑞克-约翰逊说：英国的玩具市场与美国类似，重娱乐轻教育。英国销售的玩具中有四分之一属于特许经营，就是说他们是根据迪斯尼电影或是像“粉红猪小妹”和“消防员山姆”等系列电视中的形象（制成的玩具）。这个比例在德国占14%。
German parents are bigger on engineering. Last year building sets accounted for 13.4% of German toy sales compared with only 8.6% in Britain. Germany is the biggest European market for Lego, the Danish maker of colourful bricks. Mediterranean countries are more traditional. Dolls account for fully 16.8% of toy sales in Spain, compared with 9.7% in Britain and just 7.9% in Germany. Italians buy a disproportionate number of toys from small, local makers.
德国父母更倾向于工程类玩具。去年拼装类玩具占德国玩具销售的13.4%，相比较英国是8
.6%。丹麦制造的彩色积木——乐高在欧洲的最大市场是德国。地中海国家更加传统。(玩具)娃娃在西班牙玩具销售总量的16.8%，相比之下英国是9.7%，德国是7.9%。意大利人从本国小生产商那里购买数量很少的的玩具。
UNICEF, a United Nations agency, slates British parents for encouraging “compulsive consumerism” in their children. Yet analysts think the British habit of piling children’s bedrooms with junk is changing, thanks to the economic slump. Movie-related toys have not sold as well as expected recently, says Mr Johnson. And Lego has been thriving in Britain, as it has everywhere else. The firm’s building sets are expensive, but they give parents lots of “play value”, which means children play with them for a long time without getting bored.
联合国儿童基金会批评英国父母在鼓励孩子们的“强迫消费症”。不过分析家们认为英国人将便宜货堆进孩子们卧室的习惯正在改变，这要感谢经济下滑。约翰逊说近来电影相关的玩具销售的没有预期的好。像在其他地方一样，乐高玩具在英国销售兴隆。这家公司的拼装玩具价格昂贵，但是他们带给父母们更多的“游戏价值”，这意味着儿童拿这些玩具玩很长时间也不会厌倦。